From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 19:30:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 14:30:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409011931.i81JVrL13937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011928 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-012130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ORE NEWD INTO NRN ID AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 011928Z - 012130Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MTNS OF FAR NERN ORE...NRN ID INTO WRN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN ORE...NRN ID AND WRN MT WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REGION OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. A NARROW ZONE OF LOWER 50S DEWPTS STILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. 40-50 KT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE MTNS/HIGHER TERRAIN. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT...DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE 40-50 DEG F. COMBINED WITH LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASING TREND TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 09/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 44741718 45331770 46491658 47511576 48591465 49111277 48810987 47850929 47020945 46251019 45151281 44821531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 20:22:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 15:22:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409012023.i81KNjL16451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012020 IAZ000-012215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 012020Z - 012215Z POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING... WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS SOUTH OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA/ NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ONGOING ACROSS IOWA. THIS IS PERHAPS AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 22-23Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE DES MOINES AREA...WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. WEAK FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS...IN MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. ..KERR.. 09/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43109356 42609177 41879103 41009146 40869307 41449421 42789478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 19:44:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 14:44:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409021945.i82JjtL03370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021942 MIZ000-WIZ000-022115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN WI...CNTRL/ERN U.P AND FAR NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 021942Z - 022115Z AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONT AND/OR LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AND OR WW ISSUANCE. RAPID SCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING CU OVER DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE 1830Z. ADDITIONAL MODERATE CU HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA/FAR NERN WI AND OVER FAR NRN LOWER MI. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT COUPLED WITH AREAS OF MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 21Z. RECENT RUC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG-SVR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING AND AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS AT 500 MB SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 09/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46528685 45888787 45488808 44938815 44578757 45178387 45538385 46388425 46598574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 19:29:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 14:29:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409031930.i83JUcG20898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031927 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 031927Z - 032130Z TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING/ DEEPENING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND WRN NEW MEXICO. WHILE WARM/DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS SLOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...COOLING/MOISTENING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. ADDITIONALLY..TONGUE OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THUS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE STILL RATHER WEAK...CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. CONTINUING PRESENCE OF UNSATURATED AIR IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. ..KERR.. 09/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31411143 32521121 33201093 33801012 35110983 36410879 37090924 36140747 34770716 32750797 31760807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 10:06:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 05:06:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409041008.i84A85G24790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041004 MNZ000-NDZ000-041130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND/NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041004Z - 041130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0950Z...FARGO/GRAND FORKS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN ND...THE MOST INTENSE OF WHICH WERE LOCATED OVER RAMSEY AND NELSON COUNTIES. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 3KM WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM OF THE BUOYANCY LAYER /I.E. 35-40KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 47969863 48689819 49019719 48989593 48409496 47449664 47059743 47409842 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 11:18:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 06:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409041119.i84BJiG13670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041116 FLZ000-041245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/LOWER ERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041116Z - 041245Z IN ADDITION TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE BANDS. LATEST MELBOURNE/MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED RAINBAND WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SSWWD ACROSS ERN GLADES COUNTY. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE NNELY WINDS INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANTLY ATOP SHALLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES AOB 200 J/KG/. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS AIRMASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ANY CELLS MOVING ONSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 2.30-2.40 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5-5.5 KFT SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-2.5 INCHES. ..MEAD.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27557985 26397986 26058042 26288096 27508126 28798080 28688011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 14:57:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 09:57:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409041459.i84Ex0G21876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041455 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-041700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 041455Z - 041700Z A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS... BUT THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF...AND NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX INTO THE IMMEDIATE FOUR CORNERS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET IS PROVING FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS...EMBEDDED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. AIDED BY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN ARIZONA. SOME HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN WARMER/ MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO AREAS NORTH OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...BY THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERHAPS STILL TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS REGION MAY LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...HOWEVER. MEANWHILE...INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA...RESULTING IN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33541183 34721087 35401019 36810931 37550875 36700667 35410656 34080790 32840924 32361029 33091134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 20:09:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 15:09:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409042010.i84KAPG03097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042006 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/NW AND W CNTRL MN...NE SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 042006Z - 042200Z CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE/INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FARGO ND AREA...ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD GENERATED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS LATTER FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS SUGGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INTENSIFY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO WARM SECTOR OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW IN THE ABERDEEN SD AREA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/SHORT DURATION SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. PRIMARY RISKS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. ..KERR.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47049801 47689701 47489545 46179537 45509630 44839694 44439738 44209819 44919852 45999824 46269844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 23:05:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 18:05:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409042306.i84N6qG29656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042302 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...CNTRL NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042302Z - 050130Z PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT ALIGNED SW-NE FROM NERN CO INTO NCNTRL NEB EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG PREFRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NWRN KS AND INTO SWRN NEB OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION TO MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FLOWING ACROSS THE FRONT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING AND PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH/WIND MAX ROTATING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SUSTAIN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB TONIGHT. ACTIVITY NOW SPREADING NEWD ALONG THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS HOT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. CURRENTLY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WERE RELATIVELY WARM WITH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING MARGINAL LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...INCREASING ASCENT COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB. A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE GIVEN POST-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT. WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED...AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 42880044 42929868 40009932 39320219 41340232  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 23:32:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 18:32:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409042333.i84NXjG05119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042330 FLZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042330Z - 050100Z A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER FL SHORTLY. LARGE EYEWALL OF HRCN FRANCES WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-CNTRL COAST OF FL THIS EVENING. TROPICAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION LUMBERS WNWWD. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INFORMATION SUGGESTS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE HRCN WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2. CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL CAN UTILIZE THIS SHEAR TO PRODUCE SMALL SCALE AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES AND POCKETS OF HIGHER DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST WITHIN CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS SPREADING INLAND WELL AWAY FROM THE EYEWALL. GIVEN SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 26648003 26638207 29848329 29908119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 21:26:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 16:26:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052127.i85LRgG32015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052109 FLZ000-GAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E COAST OF FL/SE GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 800... VALID 052109Z - 052315Z HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF T.S. FRANCES EXTENDING FROM SE GA OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS IS THE WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE INFLUX IS CONCENTRATED...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DESTABILIZATION. ALSO...RADAR IMAGERY HAS PERIODICALLY SHOWN MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY DISCRETE CELL AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. LATEST VWP WIND DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE INDICATES AROUND 35-45 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH CIRCULAR HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE...INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT. CENTER OF FRANCES IS NOW OVER POLK/HILLSBOROUGH CO LINE...AND AS THE INNER CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED RISK OF TORNADOES ALONG THE W CNTRL FL COAST. OTHERWISE...BAND OF STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL GA INTO W CNTRL FL PANHANDLE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS AS IT MOVES WNW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF THE RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS MAY BE MARKED BY THIS BAND GIVEN WEAK CHARACTER OF CUMULUS FIELD FARTHER NORTHWEST. ..TAYLOR.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX... 27617866 29048104 30018218 31288289 31698181 29757919 28547815 27777812  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 21:44:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 16:44:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052145.i85LjeG04677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052142 WIZ000-MNZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052142Z - 052345Z PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN...NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 801...MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY ANOTHER WATCH AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CNTRL MN ATTM AND WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A FMM TO JMR LINE. A N-S PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE INTERSECTED THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN TODD AND WRN WADENA COUNTIES WITH MOST ACTIVE CELLS BASED ON LTG DATA CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THE LINE OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SITUATED ACROSS ECNTRL MN. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING STRONG AND DEEP SLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE ONGOING LINE CAN POSE A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION TO THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM WILL PROBABLY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION AND STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ROTATION. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS TREND TOWARD GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45279573 45349639 47029633 47539347 47599259 46019211 45199216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 22:41:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 17:41:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052242.i85MguG21705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052239 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 801... VALID 052239Z - 060015Z STRONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWED SEGMENTS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING FROM ADAIR AND GUTHRIE COUNTIES INTO DALLAS AND MADISON COUNTIES AT ABOUT 40KT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER FROM JACKSON COUNTY MN INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IA...AND POINTS SOUTH. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ENEWD FROM ERN SD AND NERN NEB TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB...AND NEAR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SERN SD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DYNAMIC FORCING INVOF THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB IS LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS OVER SD COULD CONTAIN HAIL GIVEN DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER COLD POOL. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 44469796 45199304 40599278 40719619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 22:47:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 17:47:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052249.i85MnAG23126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052246 COR MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 801... VALID 052246Z - 060015Z CORRECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO TORNADO WATCH STRONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWED SEGMENTS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING FROM ADAIR AND GUTHRIE COUNTIES INTO DALLAS AND MADISON COUNTIES AT ABOUT 40KT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER FROM JACKSON COUNTY MN INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IA...AND POINTS SOUTH. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ENEWD FROM ERN SD AND NERN NEB TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB...AND NEAR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SERN SD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DYNAMIC FORCING INVOF THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB IS LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS OVER SD COULD CONTAIN HAIL GIVEN DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER COLD POOL. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 44469796 45199304 40599278 40719619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 23:11:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 18:11:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052312.i85NCLG29957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052308 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO....ERN KS....NRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 052308Z - 060145Z SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD/SEWD ALONG PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN MO ACROSS ERN KS AND INTO NWRN OK. VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG THE LINE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO 500MB TEMPERATURES OF AOA MINUS 5C...SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONLY POORLY ORGANIZED LINEAR MULTICELLS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NWRN MO...ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. ONE OR TWO STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION COULD BRIEFLY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...HOWEVER... CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE FOR A WATCH TO BE ISSUED. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37169474 34549852 35759920 37689604 40399436 40419234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 23:32:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 18:32:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052334.i85NYJG03498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052330 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052330Z - 060130Z ...ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO WW IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... STORMS ARE LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS WRN WI AND APPEAR TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. RECENT VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM THE MINNEAPOLIS RADAR INDICATES SEVERAL ROTATIONAL COUPLETS...SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO. RECENT VWP DATA ALSO FROM MPX SHOW NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH HOWEVER...SO AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..TAYLOR.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 43439120 43619267 45109280 45249000 44728961 43459001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 01:05:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 20:05:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060107.i8617CG01032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060103 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-060200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 801... VALID 060103Z - 060200Z PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WAS MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 801 ATTM. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL IA HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHERE DMX VWP DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS STORMS MOVE INTO ERN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE...LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO OFFSET THE SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO RISK. THEREFORE CURRENT WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 0200Z/9PM CDT AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40689282 40639544 42189523 43559565 45239543 45199279 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 04:14:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 23:14:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060415.i864FPG32188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060412 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802... VALID 060412Z - 060615Z CENTER OF LARGE T.S. FRANCES HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE EXTREME NERN GULF TO THE NW OF TPA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF FL WITH SOME SLACKENING IN THE SURFACE ISOBAR GRADIENT ACROSS SRN GA. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SRN GA WHERE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 25-35KT EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE EAST COAST. WITHIN ABOUT 1KM OF THE SURFACE...A BELT OF ELY WINDS OF AT LEAST 60KT IS INDICATED BY VWP DATA FROM JAX...CHS...AND VAX. THIS VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS RESULTING IN EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 ACROSS MOST OF NORTH FL AND INTO SRN GA. GIVEN THIS AXIS OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS...ANY CELLULAR ELEMENTS/STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE FEEDER BANDS ROTATING AROUND FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SPIN-UP BRIEF TORNADOES. THIS SITUATION CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH CELLS COMING ASHORE OVER SERN GA WHERE SOME CG LTG IS BEING DETECTED. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH LESS ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE PER LTG STRIKE DATA ...WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN FL. GIVEN LARGE AND VERY STRONG FLOW AROUND FRANCES...TROPICAL CYCLONE SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 28928085 29368508 31988513 31478083 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 05:22:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 00:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060524.i865OIG21864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060523 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060521 SCZ000-GAZ000-060645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060521Z - 060645Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONSHORE. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST CHARLESTON REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION/SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PRESENT WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING ONSHORE OVER BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. CURRENT VWP MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS INDICATES THAT NEAR-GROUND ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2. THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RISING LFC HEIGHTS NWD FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33547906 33708044 33708165 33418223 32688151 32538007 32757900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 08:08:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 03:08:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060810.i868AGG05247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060806 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802... VALID 060806Z - 060930Z GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH 10 OR 11Z IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SERN GA...WITH A SLOW EWD SHIFT ACROSS S-CNTRL GA/N-CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS. LATEST CHS REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA SHOW A RAINBAND WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM 60S CHS WWD TO 30W OF SAV WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 115/35. SYNTHESIS OF RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS WITH CURRENT VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT CORRIDOR FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO THE FL BORDER AND INLAND 80-100NM REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 300-350 M2/S2. EXPECT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF PARENT TROPICAL SYSTEM. THREAT AREA SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD INTO S-CNTRL GA/N-CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32008515 31798287 32138221 32098128 31498081 28848082 29368513 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 11:50:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 06:50:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409061151.i86BpnG07235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061148 FLZ000-061315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061148Z - 061315Z POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WW IS BEING ISSUED. RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN RAINBAND FROM JUST S OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR NEWD INTO POLK/OSCEOLA COUNTIES ON BACKSIDE OF FRANCES CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS THAT LOCALIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE IS OVERCOMING BROADER-SCALE PRESSURE RISES AND ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE BAND. CURRENT TAMPA AND MELBOURNE VWPS INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THIS SAME CORRIDOR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 300-400 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN STABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26468306 28428201 29318149 29018089 28168049 26358174 25948274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 16:30:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 11:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409061632.i86GW3G28390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061628 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / SRN HALF OF GA / CENTRAL AND NRN FL / ERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 803...804... VALID 061628Z - 061800Z NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 803 AND 804 WHICH EXPIRE AT 06/18Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY PLACES THE CENTER OF FRANCES APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SSW TLH ATTM...JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. FAVORABLE BANDING CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FL NWD INTO ERN GA / SERN SC...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES THAT SOME THINNING OR EVEN BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST MAY SUPPORT LIMITED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD /CHARLESTON SC AND JACKSONVILLE FL VWPS INDICATING 35 TO 40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 350 TO 400 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY/ AND VERY MOIST / TROPICAL AIRMASS...ANY HEATING / DESTABILIZATION WILL ONLY FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THEREFORE...NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED COVERING THE ERN HALF OF FRANCES' CIRCULATION. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33298214 33097961 31728116 30198143 28458058 27808046 26978150 26778225 27818278 28788268 29848362 30068409 29878468 30678466 32588384 33058323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 19:57:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 14:57:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409061958.i86JwuG29360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061955 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SC/NERN FL COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 805...806... VALID 061955Z - 062200Z IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45 E MCN/35 S SAV/40 NNE MLB. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER OUTER BAND NOW OVER GULF STREAM HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG /. VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE DISCRETE CELLS...SO THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND EVENTUALLY MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF SC. IN THE SHORT TERM...BACKED/SELY FLOW AS NOTED IN SFC OBS OFF THE FL/SE GA COASTS...WILL ONLY INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM THE RADARS IN JACKSONVILLE FL AND VALDESTA GA SUGGEST 35-50 KT OF LOW LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS PERHAPS HIGHER TODAY THAN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM/COAST ORIENTATION. ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX...FFC...TAE... 28518033 28778155 29058201 30298311 31248359 32468347 33248280 33318104 33167943 30867962 29327969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 21:07:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 16:07:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409062108.i86L8xG29973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062105 COR SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SC/NERN FL COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...806... VALID 062105Z - 062200Z CORRECTED FOR TORNADO WATCH IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45 E MCN/35 S SAV/40 NNE MLB. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER OUTER BAND NOW OVER GULF STREAM HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG /. VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE DISCRETE CELLS...SO THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND EVENTUALLY MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF SC. IN THE SHORT TERM...BACKED/SELY FLOW AS NOTED IN SFC OBS OFF THE FL/SE GA COASTS...WILL ONLY INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM THE RADARS IN JACKSONVILLE FL AND VALDESTA GA SUGGEST 35-50 KT OF LOW LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS PERHAPS HIGHER TODAY THAN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM/COAST ORIENTATION. ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX...FFC...TAE... 28518033 28778155 29058201 30298311 31248359 32468347 33248280 33318104 33167943 30867962 29327969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 23:14:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 18:14:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409062315.i86NFPG14889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062312 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...806... VALID 062312Z - 070115Z ISOLATED FEEDER BAND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN FL/SERN GA AND SRN SC TONIGHT AS CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY NWD OVER SRN GA. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS VERY LARGE...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WINDS /50-60KT/ ARE SITUATED WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...PRIMARILY FROM EXTREME NERN FL NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO SC. SHEAR AND HELICITY ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE BANDS OF CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND FRANCES. STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF STREAM WATERS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND BASED ON LTG STRIKE DATA. THUS...IT SEEMS THAT ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 30028133 30038265 32148304 33558166 33347912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 07:24:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 02:24:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409070725.i877PhG19656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070722 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL...ERN GA...SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 807... VALID 070722Z - 070845Z ANOTHER REPLACEMENT WW PROBABLY WILL MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION. WITH GRADUAL INLAND SHIFT OF PARENT CYCLONE AND OF ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY FIELDS IN ERN SEMICIRCLE...SUCH WW MAY NEED TO BE POSITIONED SOMEWHAT FARTHER N AND/OR W. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF FORMER TC FRANCES INVOF GA/AL BORDER APPROXIMATELY 40 NNE DHN...MOVING NNW 10-15 KT AND POSSIBLY TURNING N OR NNE TOWARD ISALLOBARIC MIN ANALYZED OVER W-CENTRAL GA. THERMAL/MOIST AXIS ARE NEARLY COLOCATED -- INVOF SAV RIVER. GIVEN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO AXIS OF MAX BUOYANCY -- MUCAPE INCREASING FROM AROUND 200 J/KG BETWEEN AHN-MCN TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG INVOF SAV. KINEMATICALLY...SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING FASTER THAN FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER -- I.E. AT 850 MB -- RESULTING IN NET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER MUCH OF WW AREA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS SC/GA. VWP AND MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND NRN FL...ALONG NRN AND SRN PERIPHERIES RESPECTIVELY OF INSTABILITY AXIS. SRH IS MAXIMIZED ABOVE 400 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN GA JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM CORE...BUT IN REGION OF MINIMIZED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND MORE STRATIFIED/NEBULOUS PRECIP CHARACTER. OPTIMAL COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD FROM E-CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC INTO NERN GA AND CENTRAL SC. TORNADO THREAT NOT FINISHED BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS NRN FL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN N FL AREA ABOVE SFC...SHIFTING LARGEST HODOGRAPHS FARTHER N. STILL...SOME OF NRN FL MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN WW BEYOND 09Z. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX... 29268236 33828180 33817917 29247987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 09:33:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 04:33:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409070934.i879YRG27424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070930 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-071230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA...NWRN SD AND SWRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070930Z - 071230Z HEAVY RAINFALL HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z OVER NWRN SC AND SWRN NC -- ESPECIALLY ON SE FACING SLOPES -- WITH 2-3 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY IN MANY LOCALES. REMAINS OF TC FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NWD THROUGH MIDMORNING...CENTERED INVOF AL/GA BORDER BUT CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD ENVELOPE OF HEAVY WARM-CLOUD PRECIP AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 250 NM OF CENTER IN NERN SEMICIRCLE. NRN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE UPON MORE OF SRN APPALACHIANS. INTENSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UPSLOPE EXPECTED AMIDST 35-50 KT SELY LLJ AND PW EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED AMIDST NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...SBCAPES TO 300 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NRN GA. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT NORMAL TO HIGHLANDS IS NOT AS LARGE HERE AS FARTHER NE...GREATEST THREAT HERE ALSO IS ON SE-FACING SLOPES WITH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34958472 35038437 35508339 35938208 35718110 35328091 35168098 34918132 34758229 34658345 34668449 34598498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 15:31:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 10:31:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409071533.i87FX3G30085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071532 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071529 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC / ERN GA / NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808... VALID 071529Z - 071700Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF SC. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR REPLACING WW 808...WHICH WILL EXTEND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NWD INTO SRN NC. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FRANCES DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS SWRN GA. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N FL -- PRIMARILY WITHIN MAIN FEEDER BAND EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF TPA TO JUST S OF JAX -- AS WELL AS INTO PARTS OF ERN GA...GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SC. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF SC...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR WITH TIME ACROSS SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE REGION. OVERALL HOWEVER...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE THINNER CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK HEATING HAS ALLOWED AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP. WITH LATEST COLUMBIA AND CHARLESTON SC VWPS SHOWING PERSISTENT 35 TO 40 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR / OVER 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY...LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 35128235 35008149 34787918 34137842 32258044 31948119 32038293 34828353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 19:21:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 14:21:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409071922.i87JMlG26944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071919 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA / SC / SRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 809...810... VALID 071919Z - 072115Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS A BROAD AREA WITHIN WW 809 AND 810. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY CENTER FRANCES NEAR CSG /COLUMBUS GA/...WITH VERY MOIST / MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEWD ACROSS ERN GA AND SC INTO NC. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE BANDING IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...NUMEROUS MINI SUPERCELLS WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY FROM NERN SC INTO SERN PORTIONS OF NC. WITH VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /30-PLUS KT 0-1 KM SHEAR CONTINUES ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/...EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 35418283 35588001 35397814 34097775 31598121 31588252 34598334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 22:09:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 17:09:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409072210.i87MAgG19697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072207 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN GA...SC AND SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 809...810... VALID 072207Z - 072300Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...TORNADO WATCHES 809 AND 810 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF EXTREME ERN GA...MUCH OF SC...INTO PARTS OF SRN NC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WAS NEARING CNTRL GA AND CONTINUES MOVING IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION. SEE DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH N CNTRL SC. AN INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES ADVECTING NWWD INTO MUCH OF SC AND SRN NC...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING ADVECTING NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF THIS STATE. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PERSIST E OF THE CENTER OF FRANCES AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE E-W BOUNDARY OVER SC. GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E REGIME OVER SC AND SRN NC AS THEY MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34257778 33787869 33067947 32328078 31658155 33658256 34918326 35097861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 02:11:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 21:11:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409080213.i882DCG22589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080209 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN GA...SC AND SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 811... VALID 080209Z - 080345Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN HALF OF SC INTO SRN NC. THIS EVENING AN E-W BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SERN NC WWD THROUGH NRN SC. THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES IS NOW LOCATED OVER CNTRL GA MOVING NWD. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER THETA-E REGIME E OF THE CENTER FROM SERN GA EWD THROUGH MUCH OF SC AND ARE LIFTING NWD INTO SRN NC. MINI SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINBANDS LIFTING NWD AND INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN SC INTO SRN NC WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34007835 31978106 32068194 33938176 34848249 35628217 35477978 35167826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 07:41:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 02:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409080742.i887gRG09717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080738 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-081045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL NC...MUCH OF SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 812... VALID 080738Z - 081045Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA AMIDST GENERALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY RANGES FROM VERY MARGINAL OVER MUCH OF PIEDMONT -- I.E. LESS THAN 200 J/KG SBCAPE IN 6Z GSO RAOB -- TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER COASTAL SC AND SERN NC...USING MODIFIED RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE CENTER OVER EXTREME N-CENTRAL GA DRIFTING NNE...AND WEAK TROUGH EWD ACROSS CENTRAL SC TO VICINITY ILM. EARLIER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AGAIN...NOW THAT DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING HAS BEEN LOST FOR 6-8 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SUCH A BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING AFTER A FEW HOURS OF INSOLATION...EXPECT SUPERCELL FOCUS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN MEANTIME TO BE MORE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC ACROSS WW AREA. PROBABILITIES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER NRN HALF OF WW -- FROM CENTRAL SC NWD -- WHERE 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 450 J/KG PREVAILS PER OBSERVED GSO HODOGRAPH. FARTHER S...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE DECREASES...WITH MOST STORMS MOVING NEAR TO OR ALONG HODOGRAPH HAVING LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS -- I.E. LINE OVER AIKEN BARNWELL/ALLENDALE COUNTIES SC AT 730Z. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SRH IS LARGE ONLY FOR DISCRETE CELLS MOVING WITH SIGNIFICANT EWD COMPONENT -- RIGHTWARD OF BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND OF SHEAR VECTOR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER. STILL...TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS NOT DIMINISHED ENOUGH YET TO JUSTIFY REMOVING SRN SC FROM WW. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 31807794 32378221 36148222 35567798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 12:43:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 07:43:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409081244.i88CiQG15570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081241 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC...SRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813... VALID 081241Z - 081445Z TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. WITH INSOLATION STRONGEST OVER RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE AREAS OF NC...DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS PROCESS WILL BE OVER NRN NC...SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN VA. THIS REGION WILL BE IN OPTIMAL OVERLAP OF NRN PORTION OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY AND SRN PORTION OF RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW -- WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST ENLARGED. 12Z GSO RAOB SHOWS 200-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 700 J/KG SBCAPE PRIOR TO DIURNAL HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW BASED ON VWP AND RAOBS. SHEAR DROPS OFF MORE GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS NC. STILL...AIR MASS S OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE IN WW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVER THIS AREA EXPECT SBCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND FAVORABLE SRH -- ESPECIALLY FOR ANY CELLS DEVIATING RIGHTWARD FROM PREVAILING ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34547729 34548083 37208112 37227747 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 16:02:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 11:02:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409081604.i88G44G03522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081600 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813... VALID 081600Z - 081800Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 813. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF VIRGINIA... LIKELY INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...BY 18Z. INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA HAS BEEN MINIMIZED TO THIS POINT BY SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF VIRGINIA IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS ONGOING. WITH LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION...INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH REGION... ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... 35627955 36777943 37337939 38057901 38877804 38897705 37847682 36587681 35787710 35097739 34657772 34327837 34627908 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 19:42:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 14:42:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409081943.i88JhbG06169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081939 MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814... VALID 081939Z - 082145Z CONTINUE WW. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES...BROADER SCALE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE A BIT. WARM...VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF RICHMOND VA INTO THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON D.C AND CHARLOTTESVILLE...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUNSHINE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ARE MOST PRONOUNCED. RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITH NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF CONVECTION SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WITH HODOGRAPHS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL NEAR THESE LINES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS TRANSFERRED TOWARD SURFACE. ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON D.C./NORFOLK BY AROUND 09/00Z. ..KERR.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38647844 39097751 39587656 37527604 36087678 35217792 35807842 37407847 37987862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 20:19:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 15:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409102020.i8AKKPO02031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102016 SDZ000-102215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102016Z - 102215Z STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...AND WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN WAKE OF SURFACE TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED NORTHEAST OF RAPID CITY INTO THE MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60F...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED TO NEAR 80F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH WARM LAYERS IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE CAP AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO INITIATION...UPPER FLOW FIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. TOWARD 10/23Z-11/00Z...PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MOBRIDGE AND AREAS TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER SMALL...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEAKENING BY 11/01-02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 09/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45090276 45750125 45930033 45559980 44980011 44459989 44040008 43850064 43820136 43890224 44420287 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 04:04:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 23:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409110405.i8B45dO11958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110357 SDZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110357Z - 110600Z ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL SD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA EXTENDING NEWD TO JUST WEST OF PIERRE SD. AN ONGOING SMALL MCS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR NWRN SD. AS A RESULT...THE MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AFFECTING SCNTRL AND ECNTRL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT). THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH NEW CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44470100 44880040 44999903 44859793 44339745 43619757 43359887 43560031 43970098  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 20:04:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 15:04:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409112005.i8BK5ZO00952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111959 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-112200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COLORADO VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SVR POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN VALID 111959Z - 112200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INCREASES... BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER...HAS MAINTAINED INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE COLORADO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING...THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. WHILE OROGRAPHY IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE/BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...AS SURFACE HEATING BECOMES REDUCED AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS ..KERR.. 09/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN... 36291620 37111682 37791632 38661450 38581202 37271092 35751119 34751228 33981379 33311429 33211512 34221617 35551596  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 15:48:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 10:48:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409121549.i8CFnqO22127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121541 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAIN VALID 121541Z - 121815Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ...IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS FEATURE IS NOW SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS...LIKELY BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE JACKSON TN AREA DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE HOPKINSVILLE KY AREA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION... BUT NEW ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM...INTO THE VICINITY OF DYERSBURG. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE BEGINS TO WARM INTO THE 80S. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BENEATH APPROACHING CIRCULATION IS ALREADY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND MID-LEVEL POCKET OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR... SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...EXPANDING/SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS. ..KERR.. 09/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34498969 35168980 35628991 36478943 36688881 36538775 35728751 34688801 34138924  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 20:51:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 15:51:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409122053.i8CKrCO27682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122041 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-122245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NW AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122041Z - 122245Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL... AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO CONSOLIDATION INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS...IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES...CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN STRONGEST CELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEYOND PEAK HEATING...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE... AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DIMINISH BY AROUND 13/00Z. ..KERR.. 09/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... 35748927 36478872 36558770 36098675 35408705 34828766 34078817 33498884 33419011 33819081 34708969  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 18:07:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 13:07:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409131808.i8DI8sO06094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131804 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN SWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131804Z - 131930Z POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND NRN AL. HERE... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S INTO LOWER 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -10C IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER IS SHOWING SELY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-2.5 KM VEERING TO WLY OR NWLY IN THE 5-7 KM LAYER WITH RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 25KTS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 09/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34638867 35818872 36438796 36438645 36078559 34908552 33938581 33528681 33718828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 20:25:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 15:25:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409132026.i8DKQgO20426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132021 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NWRN IA SWWD INTO NERN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132021Z - 132145Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH INITIATION POSSIBLE BY 21Z. CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM NEAR YKN SWWD TO NEAR BUB WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THOUGH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SWWD INTO SWRN NEB/ HAVE LOCALLY REMOVED MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 150-250 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH /PER NELIGH NEB PROFILER/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 21 OR 2130Z. ..MEAD.. 09/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41279946 42159865 42759811 43859700 44039590 43449516 42429620 41889696 41039883 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 23:15:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 18:15:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409132316.i8DNGDO04648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132312 MNZ000-NDZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MN...EXTREME ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132312Z - 140015Z ...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF MN... LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...PER RECENT RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION FROM SERN ND INTO NWRN MN. AS UPPER FLOW INCREASES ACROSS NWRN MN INTO WRN ONTARIO...EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF MN. SRN EXTENT OF THIS FORCING MAY BE ROUGHLY THE SD/ND BORDER LATITUDE WITH POSSIBLY A GAP BETWEEN CONVECTIVE REGIMES OVER CNTRL/SRN MN. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE TO UPDRAFTS DO NOT PARTICULARLY FAVOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46659697 47979727 48989705 48699389 46879501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 02:02:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 21:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409140203.i8E23UO07570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140159 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NWRN IA...SCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 816... VALID 140159Z - 140300Z CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED FROM ERN NEB...NEWD INTO ECNTRL MN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. BANDED STRUCTURE REFLECTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN INCREASING CAP AND ELEVATED STRUCTURE OF CONVECTION. INCREASING LLJ INTO SERN NEB SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 39730063 41329866 43569693 46059355 44279432 40259863 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 18:50:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 13:50:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409141851.i8EIpkd02369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141847 IAZ000-NEZ000-142015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141847Z - 142015Z SURFACED-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM E-CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS NERN NEB TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN KS. A WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE THEN EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW NEWD ACROSS E-CNTRL NEB /NEAR OMA/ INTO CNTRL IA. SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON N OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL/NERN KS TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT OWING TO SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LOCAL CAP REMOVAL. MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON CURRENT FAIRBURY NEB PROFILER AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS /I.E. 30-35 KTS THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION /ESPECIALLY ALONG OR JUST N OF WARM FRONT/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 2000 OR 2030Z. ..MEAD.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40529945 41069910 42129696 42709409 42599288 41899236 41369324 40259857 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 19:52:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 14:52:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409141953.i8EJrad05200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141949 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SE WY INTO WRN NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141949Z - 142145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE WY/ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN WY/NE UT/NW CO...WHILE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY/NCNTRL CO. WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AMIDST POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF NE CO/SW NEB/NW KS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON PER 18Z RUC GUIDANCE. LATEST PLATTEVILLE CO/MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER TIME-HEIGHT DATA FEATURES DEEPENING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES...MODERATE W/SW MID LEVEL FLOW /50 KTS/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/ROTATING STORMS...WITH ATTENDANT HAZARDS OF VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OWING TO STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42220477 42310293 41940062 40139983 39330015 38800127 39060484 40500525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 22:17:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 17:17:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409142219.i8EMJ4d15541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142214 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819... VALID 142214Z - 150015Z STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL NE/W CENTRAL IA. THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXIT REGION A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND NEAR SURFACE DRY LINE INTRUSION. IN ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING UVVS ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI STATIONARY FRONT. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8C/KM IN REGION WHERE BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50-70 M2/S2. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MULTICELLULAR INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT CAN BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE BRN SHEAR PROFILE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41099734 42189722 43839322 43289292 41809290 40889520 40009735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 23:21:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 18:21:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409142322.i8ENMVd10061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142318 OKZ000-TXZ000-150115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142318Z - 150115Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS /AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL/ MAY SPREAD N/NE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...AND SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL ALONG/SOUTH OF RED RIVER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT NWD EXPANSION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /20-30 KTS/...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLD PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ..GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34399823 35439812 36279737 36189601 35849520 34579526 33759548 33509659 33939817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 23:47:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 18:47:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409142348.i8ENmed20974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142344 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-150115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO/SE WY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB AND FAR NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 820... VALID 142344Z - 150115Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 820. FURTHER EAST...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND NRN KS. MCS APPEARS TO EVOLVING ACROSS NE CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE IN MIDST OF WW 820...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING. POTENT NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET /FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-55 KTS THIS EVENING/ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUAL EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE TSTM COMPLEXES INTO CNTRL NEB AND NW/NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS /DEEP LAYER SHEAR 50 KTS OR GREATER/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN HAZARD LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVELY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO BE PROHIBITIVE FACTOR. ADDITIONALLY AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- NAMELY ACROSS EXTREME NE CO AND FAR SW NEB/FAR NW KS -- WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE. ..GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41600526 41840284 42020042 42199746 40579723 39969757 39450047 39530292 39370517 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 00:20:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 19:20:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150021.i8F0Ldd01387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150017 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NEB...W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819... VALID 150017Z - 150215Z EXPECT WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SEE MD #2208 FOR DETAILS. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NOW EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN IA. LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 40 KT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL IA ENHANCING LIFT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MN. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES BETWEEN 30-50 KT ACROSS THE AREA SUSTAINING STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41079736 41459739 42179734 42699599 43279444 43909291 41589339 40339652 40029736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 01:19:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:19:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150120.i8F1K7d24021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150116 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN NEWD INTO CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 150116Z - 150415Z STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL IA NEWD THRU SRN DOOR COUNTY IN NERN WI. ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEST OVER WRN IA WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW...WITH OUTER EDGES OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /20-30 KT/ EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI. ACTIVITY IS WORKING ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN IA NEWD INTO NERN WI. LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK...MOIST TYPE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM INDICATING MORE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME THREAT THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN IA...A SMALL PART OF SERN MN AND SRN PARTS OF W CENTRAL WI NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS THE THREAT AREA AND TIME FRAME SEEM MINIMAL. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43848862 43209079 42909224 43109294 43779297 44519162 44889028 44878780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 01:58:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:58:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150200.i8F206d09348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150156 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL CO INTO PARTS OF NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150156Z - 150400Z STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL CO AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER THE FRONT RANGE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE WW 820... WHICH WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG UVVS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO. LATEST RAOB DATA ALSO SHOWS LARGE DRYING INTO THE LOWER PARTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENHANCING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 8.5C/KM AND 9C/KM WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38950470 39660318 40050089 39680051 39240098 38320269 38290447 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 09:03:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 04:03:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150904.i8F94sd32348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150900 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-151130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150900Z - 151130Z NEARLY SOLID LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 40KT ACROSS THE MO RIVER EARLY TODAY. 40-50KT WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. TIME OF DAY AND BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT SUGGESTS A WATCH IS UNNECESSARY DESPITE STRONG FORCING TO MAINTAIN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. POTENT UPPER TROUGH WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING INTO SWRN MN. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN NEB AND SWRN IA. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...IN ADDITION TO MATURE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SCALE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS ALONG THE LINE HAVE RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT ACROSS SRN NEB OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO PERSIST ALONG SMALL SEGMENTS THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO IA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST TSTM GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40-50KT RANGE AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER WIND THREAT DEVELOPS. ..CARBIN.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40289452 40119677 41039613 42079573 42389488 42549179 40599272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 15:50:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 10:50:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409151551.i8FFpBd20899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151547 WIZ000-MNZ000-151715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MN EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151547Z - 151715Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 1700 OR 1730Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW NE OF RWF WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED EWD TO NEAR MSP AND INTO NRN WI /N OF AUW/. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF COMPARATIVELY LESS CLOUDINESS OVER SERN MN/W-CNTRL WI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F...MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH ABSOLUTE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOW AOB 50 J/KG. CURRENT SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO FAR NWRN WI AHEAD OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND E/SE OF SURFACE LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS SOON AS 1700 OR 1730Z. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44469343 45539313 46239162 46149014 44958986 44059024 43519068 43519205 43819281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 16:20:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 11:20:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409151621.i8FGLbd04731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151617 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL WWD ACROSS FAR SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151617Z - 151745Z POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBAND SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 1800Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN FROM 110W PIE TO 70S AQQ TO 55SW OF PFN MOVING N OR NW AT 30-40KTS. INSPECTION OF EGLIN AFB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2. EXPECT RAINBAND AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE 1800 TO 2000Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30068823 30818815 31188693 31138513 30608399 29898397 29288439 29568578 30008680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 19:37:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 14:37:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409151938.i8FJchd16329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151934 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN AND CNTRL MO / NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151934Z - 152100Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1920Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG/SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MKC SWWD TO NW OF BVO. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAVE ALLOWED MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER W-CNTRL MO...TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG OVER NERN OK. SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /PER AREA VWPS/PROFILERS/ SUGGEST MAINLY A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE...ROTATING STORMS EXISTS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALONG OR JUST N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37089651 39249414 39919351 40059211 39559164 37329323 36729405 36349581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 20:26:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 15:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409152027.i8FKRdd10724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152023 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI INTO WRN UP OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 824... VALID 152023Z - 152200Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN WI INTO THE WRN UP OF MI THROUGH 22Z. AS OF 2015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS FROM JUST SW OF IWD SWD TO W OF CWA MOVING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A N-S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT GREEN BAY VWP IS SHOWING A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OWING TO THE STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT FAST STORM MOTIONS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXTEND NE OF WW 824 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OWING TO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER CAP WITH NEWD EXTENT. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45739277 46649274 46588739 44348751 43808923 43508982 43589090 43849146 44819274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 01:12:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 20:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160113.i8G1Ddd12313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160109 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-160315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 825... VALID 160109Z - 160315Z THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA. 01Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN ABOUT 90NM SOUTH OF KMOB. AN OLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY E-W FROM SCNTRL AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA TO COASTAL SC. EARLIER THIS EVENING...TSTMS DEVELOPED VCNTY THE FRONT OVER SWRN GA. THESE CELLS QUICKLY BECAME TORNADIC WHERE AIR MASS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND APPEAR TO HAVE LARGELY BEEN TIED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND HAVE WEAKENED. HOWEVER...A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARCS FROM SCNTRL AL TO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL THEN SWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. CELLS ARE MOVING 150/50 AND LATEST VWP FROM PENSACOLA SUGGESTS 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2. AS THE CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AL COASTLINE... THE TORNADO THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA. LATER THIS EVENING...IT WILL BECOME NECESSARY TO REISSUE/REORIENT TORNADO WATCH 825 THAT EXPIRES AT 0700 UTC. ..RACY.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30348824 32598822 31928400 29688395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 03:39:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 22:39:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160340.i8G3e4d05741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160335 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-160530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 825... VALID 160335Z - 160530Z TORNADO WATCH 825 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE NRN EDGE COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER INTO CNTRL AL AND WCNTRL GA. THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO SHORE...0330Z POSITION 40NM SOUTH OF THE AL BORDER. OUTER SPIRAL RAINBAND THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING NWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SERN AL HAS INTENSIFIED AGAIN. USING A STORM MOTION OF 150/45...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES CALCULATED OFF THE DOTHAN VWP ARE IN EXCESS OF 530 M2/S2. STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL EXPAND NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CORRESPONDINGLY TRANSLATE NWD. ..RACY.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30298826 32588826 31948394 30618391 29578393 32908807 33098713 33148546 32978450 32348384 31958397 32638819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 08:00:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 03:00:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160801.i8G81pd28411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160757 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826... VALID 160757Z - 161000Z THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES FOR MANY MORE HOURS AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND. ONE SUCH VERY PERSISTENT FEEDER BAND...COINCIDING WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE...STRETCHED FROM NEAR MGM IN SCNTRL AL THROUGH TLH AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE ERN GULF. CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN THIS BAND WITH CELL MOTION APPROACHING 50KT. VERY INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VWP AND SOUNDING DATA WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2 NEAR THIS BAND. VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2 WHERE NOTED NEAR THE EYEWALL. THIS EXTREME KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FL PNHDL...SRN AL...AND SWRN GA INTO THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30308829 33468820 32688370 29498370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 08:06:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 03:06:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160807.i8G87Pd30564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160803 COR FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826... VALID 160803Z - 161000Z CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR 2ND PARAGRAPH ("WERE" INSTEAD OF "WHERE"). THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES FOR MANY MORE HOURS AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND. ONE SUCH VERY PERSISTENT FEEDER BAND...COINCIDING WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE...STRETCHED FROM NEAR MGM IN SCNTRL AL THROUGH TLH AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE ERN GULF. CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN THIS BAND WITH CELL MOTION APPROACHING 50KT. VERY INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VWP AND SOUNDING DATA WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2 NEAR THIS BAND. VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2 WERE NOTED NEAR THE EYEWALL. THIS EXTREME KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FL PNHDL...SRN AL...AND SWRN GA INTO THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30308829 33468820 32688370 29498370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 12:06:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 07:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161207.i8GC7hd17618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161203 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...827... VALID 161203Z - 161400Z CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WAS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS MONROE COUNTY ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. WIND PROFILE DATA OVER A LARGE AREA OF AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL WERE INDICATING VERY INTENSE TO EXTREME VALUES OF 0-1KM HELICITY...ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200 M2/S2. JUST ABOUT ANY CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ACQUIRE ROTATION AND COULD END UP PRODUCING A TORNADO. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN AN OUTER RAINBAND LOCATED FROM CROSS CITY, FL TO NE OF MONTGOMERY, AL. A FEW ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THIS ARC OVER FL AND GA ARE OVER 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF IVAN. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW LARGE THE STRONG WIND FIELD IS WITH THIS HURRICANE. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NEAR THE AL/GA LINE. THIS BAND...BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN AN EVEN MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND ANY CELLS WITHIN THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IVAN.... INCLUDING MOBILE, AL...APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL BE CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH 826 SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29498263 30218819 33408825 32688370 31988369 31878263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 14:12:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 09:12:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161414.i8GEECd08356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161409 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-161515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH SRN AL....NRN THROUGH SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...827... VALID 161409Z - 161515Z TORNADO WATCHES 826 AND 827 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BY 1430Z THAT WILL COVER PARTS OF NRN THROUGH SRN AL...NRN THROUGH SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT SPREADING NWD WITH TIME AS THE CENTER OF IVAN MOVES NWD TOWARD CNTRL AL. LATEST RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAINBANDS E OF THE CENTER FROM E CNTRL THROUGH SE AL AND INTO SWRN GA. SHEAR PROFILES IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 400-600 M2/S2...WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 30428640 31478647 32088720 34048645 34578525 34308404 33118300 31088244 29408287 30058383 29988462 29778516 30288580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 15:01:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 10:01:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161502.i8GF2kd03371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161501 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161458 SCZ000-GAZ000-161700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161458Z - 161700Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM PORTIONS OF ERN GA THROUGH SC INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LATE THIS MORNING AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN SC WWD INTO E CNTRL GA. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IS ADVECTING NWWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR REMAIN WEST OF SC. DESPITE THIS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. AS IVAN CONTINUES IN A GENERALLY NNEWD DIRECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN GA INTO PORTIONS OF SC. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 32478061 31468142 31868232 32798276 33968250 34638141 34567968 33597896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 18:20:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 13:20:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161820.i8GIKxd19977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161816 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-162015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL THROUGH GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 828...829... VALID 161816Z - 162015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST THREAT THROUGH 20Z IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH GA. THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED JUST S OF TUSCALOOSA AL AND CONTINUES MOVING NWD. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH RAINBANDS DEVELOPING E OF THE CENTER WITH THE MOST INTENSE BAND EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN GA. ANOTHER BAND HAS DEVELOPED FROM NRN THROUGH E CNTRL GA AND IS LIFTING NWD. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE DENSE OVERCAST ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN CONTINUES TO LIMIT HEATING. HOWEVER... THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF THINNER CLOUDS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SPREADING NWD INTO SWRN GA. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 29898596 31598546 31968641 33228659 34798566 34528312 32088307 31468249 29538289 30208398 29848472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 19:34:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 14:34:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161935.i8GJZhd26566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161931 SCZ000-GAZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830... VALID 161931Z - 162130Z STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SC...BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN E-W BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL SC. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AREA OF GENERAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS MANAGE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33527924 32418058 32078263 33008275 34348259 34938196 34467928 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 20:55:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 15:55:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409162056.i8GKuFd07767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162052 NCZ000-TNZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162052Z - 162215Z NEW TORNADO WATCH...OR A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH...MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ERN TN AND WRN NC. NWRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DEVELOP INTO FAR WRN NC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG NWD INTO WRN NC AND ERN TN WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT NOW OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH AS MRX AT 2030Z. WITH DISCRETE STORMS ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN GA/NWRN SC BORDER AREA...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING NORTH OF CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES. PRIMARY NEGATIVE WILL BE PERSISTENT RAIN AND RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL SMALL TORNADO WATCH...OR A REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..EVANS.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX... 35088581 35688508 36008391 35968292 35348236 35008326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 22:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 17:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409162243.i8GMhCd24936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162238 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...NRN/CNTRL GA...SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 828...830... VALID 162238Z - 170045Z BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES 828/830 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF ANY EXTENTIONS WILL BE NECESSARY. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NERN GA AND CNTRL SC. 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED TROPICAL STORM IVAN OVER NCNTRL AL WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED EWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO CNTRL SC. STRONGEST SPIRAL RAINBAND WAS ARCING SWD FROM JUST EAST OF KATL-KMCN. OTHER TSTMS...WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...WERE MIGRATING RAPIDLY NWWD INTO UPSTATE SC VCNTY KAND. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THESE SPIRAL RAINBANDS INTERSECT FROM 30 E KATL-KAND. FARTHER EAST OVER ERN SC...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE TIED TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS HEADING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD STRONGEST PRESSURE FALL AXIS INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN...THE MOST INTENSE SPIRAL RAINBANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER A SMALL ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 01Z. ETA 3-HR PRESSURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING IVAN TOO RAPIDLY AND WOULD ARGUE FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING OVER NRN GA...UPSTATE SC AND PERHAPS ADJOINING WRN NC/ERN TN. WILL MONITOR THE RAINBANDS THROUGH 01Z AND IF INTENSITY OR COVERAGE REMAINS THE SAME...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN... 31868493 32648506 33258585 33438656 34938630 34938256 34657889 31907951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 03:46:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 22:46:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409170347.i8H3l0d14795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170342 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-170545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...CNTRL/UPSTATE SC...SWRN NC...EXTREME NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831... VALID 170342Z - 170545Z THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC. A LOWER THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE SWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO EXTREME NRN FL. TORNADO WATCH 831 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. RADAR PLACES CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN OVER ERN BLOUNT COUNTY AL MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED NWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A TSTM THREAT. PERSISTENT SPIRAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...ARCING FROM UPSTATE SC SWD TO ERN PNHDL OF FL. THE GREATEST DEGREE OF BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 831... PARTICULARLY VCNTY KAND. VWP FROM GREER SHOWS GREATER THAN 35 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. SO...EVEN THOUGH CELLS HAVE BECOME MUCH LESS DISCRETE THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING...EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES MAY STILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC...PARTICULARLY AS THE WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENS FARTHER W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND S INTO NRN FL. HOWEVER...GIVEN VWP DERIVED 0-1KM SRH OF BETTER THAN 150 M2/S2...VERY BRIEF AND ISOLD TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BAND OF TSTMS ROTATES NEWD TOWARD WAYCROSS AND VIDALIA. ..RACY.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...CHS...JAX...TAE... 32848345 34918340 35498060 33368058 29948365 31588286 32848261 33098167 32188150 30338217 29808234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 05:54:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 00:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409170555.i8H5thd27553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170551 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-170715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED......WRN SC/WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831... VALID 170551Z - 170715Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN TN. VAD WIND PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER CURRENTLY SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC WHERE RAINBANDS ARE ONGOING. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT AND THIS ALONG WITH THE VEERING PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NEWD INTO LOWER INSTABILITY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING MLCAPE VALUES AS SFC TEMPS FALL WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE ..BROYLES.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP... 33528218 35318221 35818215 36148169 36168108 35688076 34538076 33508108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 13:29:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 08:29:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171331.i8HDV8d27887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171326 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171326Z - 171530Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ACROSS PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL INTO SERN NC THROUGH S CNTRL VA. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED 14Z. THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WERE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. E OF THE CENTER...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS FROM SC THROUGH PARTS OF CNTRL NC AND INTO SW VA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS DEVELOPING FROM W CNTRL NC INTO N CNTRL SC ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FROM THE HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. THE 12Z GREENSBORO RAOB SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG IN THIS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR TO 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 40 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 35368025 36598055 37497943 37167796 34717833 33817982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 15:06:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 10:06:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171507.i8HF75d18479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171503 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-171630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 171503Z - 171630Z MUCH OF CNTRL AND PARTS OF ERN NC INTO SRN VA WILL BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK ON THE 1630Z OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... 34817979 36827971 37217744 35737668 34537867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 16:37:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 11:37:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171638.i8HGc4d08331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171633 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-171830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN THROUGH ERN VA...SRN MD AND ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171633Z - 171830Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD AND EWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF CNTRL...NRN AND ERN VA...SRN MD AND ERN NC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS BY 18Z. THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS OF ERN TN/WRN NC. IVAN HAS TAKEN ON EXTRA TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA. WHAT APPEARS TO A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH W CNTRL NC AND SW VA. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO INTENSIFY IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN NC INTO CNTRL AND ERN VA WHERE CAP IS VERY WEAK. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES ENEWD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS N CNTRL VA-MD WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION AS FAR N AS NRN VA AND SRN MD THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 34757724 36337741 37407775 37597946 38667826 38847690 37967594 35387621 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 17:41:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 12:41:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171741.i8HHfwd10454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171737 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...CNTRL NC THROUGH S CNTRL VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832... VALID 171737Z - 171930Z THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST THREAT FROM CNTRL NC NWD THROUGH S CNTRL VA. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES FROM SW VA THROUGH W CNTRL NC. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE LINE ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE LINE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS ALONG A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM N CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL VA AND IS COLOCATED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LINE. STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OR INCREASE THEIR INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT NEXT FEW HOURS...SUSTAINING THE TORNADO THREAT. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... 33797956 35417991 37078006 37507890 37027769 35367755 34007819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 19:37:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 14:37:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171938.i8HJc5d06501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171933 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD AND EXTREME SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171933Z - 172130Z THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EXTREME ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN MD...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN PA. THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM MD EWD INTO DE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT. AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NC AND VA WILL SPREAD NEWD...CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NWD WITH TIME. CURRENT PRESSURE FALL TENDENCIES REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH AREA OF MAXIMUM FALLS CURRENTLY LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH CNTRL VA. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 38957656 39367794 39917764 40137636 39777580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 19:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 14:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171957.i8HJvOd15992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171953 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH CNTRL...ERN AND NRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 833... VALID 171953Z - 172200Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS NERN NC INTO MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF VA THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NRN VA. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUES SPREADING NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH VA. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH AREA OF MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH WW 833 NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD ENEWD. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO SELY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...COINCIDENT WITH AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS. THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST SWD INTO ERN NC...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS VA PORTION OF WW 833 NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 38997658 37227594 35687603 34937740 37297808 38807846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 20:04:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 15:04:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172005.i8HK5bd19946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172001 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-172100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SE NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832... VALID 172001Z - 172100Z TORNADO WATCH 832 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. HOWEVER...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MOVED INTO WW 833 BEFORE THIS EXPIRATION TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THIS LINE INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF E CNTRL THROUGH SE NC BY 2030Z. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34647757 33957806 33867886 34257919 35387886 36617835 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 21:10:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 16:10:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172111.i8HLBYd19753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172107 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...FAR NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172107Z - 172300Z ISOLATED SVR T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN KS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL KS. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT NEITHER A WW OR A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE WARRANTED. DEEP CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINS WEAK TO NIL AT BEST AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS CINH SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS FROM 30-40 DEG F ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ..CROSBIE.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37130001 36250102 35930091 36040041 36639961 37129904 37349827 37099723 37549704 37999759 38409828 38509885 38419920 37599968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 22:22:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 17:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172224.i8HMOEd20335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172219 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN/ERN VA...DC...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 833...834... VALID 172219Z - 180015Z THREATS FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL INCREASE FOR THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...TORNADO WATCH 833 AND 834 WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL MD...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN/ERN VA AND ERN NC FOR THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN MOVING NWD AT AROUND 25 KTS IN A BAND ARCING FROM THE EXTREME ERN WV PNHDL SWD INTO CNTRL VA. ANOTHER BAND OF TSTMS WAS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE POTOMAC RIVER FROM NEAR STERLING SWD TO EAST OF FREDERICKSBURG AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA THROUGH 00Z. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AREA ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER EWD INTO CNTRL MD HAD WARMED TO NEAR 80F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THUS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE TSTM BAND APPROACHING THE RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AS STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS TRANSLATE NWD FROM SERN VA. USING A STORM MOTION 185/23 KTS...THE SRH VALUES ON THE STERLING VWP WERE IN EXCESS OF 180 M2/S2 IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...BAND OF TSTMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL VA WILL MOVE INTO ERN VA...CNTRL/SRN MD AND ADJACENT CHESAPEAKE BAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH A DECREASE IN THE DISCRETE CELLS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THAT THE TORNADO THREATS WILL DECREASE. THUS...NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACEMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. ..RACY.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH... 34987733 39737858 39707641 34967540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 23:26:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 18:26:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172327.i8HNR8d11812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172323 NCZ000-VAZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 835... VALID 172323Z - 180000Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 835 ACROSS SCNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 30 SW KRIC-KGSB-30 SW OF KILM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ENEWD 25-30 KTS. WIND PROFILES FROM WILMINGTON SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW HAS VEERED AND BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT SMALL SCALE BOWS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS SEGMENTS OF THE LINE BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW. THE TORNADO THREATS HAVE SHIFTED INTO EXTREME NERN NC AND ERN VA. THE MAIN PART OF THE LINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NEW TORNADO WATCH 836 BY 00Z. SRN PORTIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS ECNTRL NC AND THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34027811 37327794 37167774 35757747 34137769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 00:42:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 19:42:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180043.i8I0hjd04673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180039 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO...SWRN MO...NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180039Z - 180245Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB BY 04Z. THE AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 01Z OUTLOOK. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TOP INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH 700 DEWPTS AROUND 6 DEG C. 30 KT 700MB SPEED MAX WILL AID IN MODEST WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS OVER NWRN MO AND CENTRAL IA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER FAR SERN NEB/NERN KS AS PROFILER DATA FROM HILLSBORO KS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. ORIENTATION OF THIS SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO FAR NERN KS AND SERN NEB. ..CROSBIE.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39789345 40779381 41159520 40939626 40389660 39799687 39169670 38499597 38209475 38539340 39169314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 02:01:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 21:01:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180202.i8I22qd28992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180158 VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-180400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...MD...NERN NC...SCNTRL PA...ERN VA...EXTREME ERN WV PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836... VALID 180158Z - 180400Z ISOLD TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS THROUGH 04Z...BUT SEVERE THREATS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE NUMBER OF DISCRETE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE BUOYANCY OBSERVED IN THE 00Z KIAD SOUNDING AND AIR MASS IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MD SHORE BY 04Z. ISOLD CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY HAS CONTRACTED TO A SMALL PART OF CNTRL/ERN MD INTO SCNTRL PA AND SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST RISK OF A TORNADO HAS SHIFTED IN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. WAKEFIELD VWP SHOWS THAT THE FLOW HAS VEERED IN THE LOWEST GATES AND IS RESULTING IN A DEEP SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...EFFECTIVELY DECREASING SRH. LINE SEGMENTS HAVE BECOME ALIGNED MORE NORMAL TO THIS MEAN WIND AND DAMAGING WIND SEEMS MORE OF A RISK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SERN VA INTO FAR ERN NC. GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE COOLING...PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE. AFTER 04Z...ANOTHER WEATHER WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED AS SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BECOME ISOLD AT BEST. ..RACY.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX... 35917687 37377719 38597699 39717815 40097812 40137605 36007540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 03:30:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 22:30:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180331.i8I3VNd23981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180327 MOZ000-KSZ000-180530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180327Z - 180530Z ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS NERN KS AND NRN MO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT A 40 KT SWLY LLJ HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS THIS EVENING...BLOWING NORMAL TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM ERN KS TO CNTRL MO. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS FROM THE ST. JOSEPH MO AREA EWD INTO NRN MO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PARCELS FEEDING THE STORMS LIKELY ORIGINATE IN A POOL OF 2500 J/KG MUCAPE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL KS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...30 KTS OR LESS. THUS...WHILE ISOLD TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY EXHIBIT ROTATION...MOSTLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES MAY OCCUR IN ISOLD STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 40489443 39689245 38909209 38119299 38599478 39169572 40049525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 06:21:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 01:21:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180622.i8I6Mhd12437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180618 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-180815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO/FAR SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180618Z - 180815Z AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS VERY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS NWRN MO. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NW MO NEAR THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND IS ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH THE INSTABILITY LOCATED ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER. SFC-6 KM VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE SOME THROUGH DAYBREAK AND THIS SHOULD HELP THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS SLOWLY SSEWD. THE STORMS MAY ALSO BACKBUILD ALONG THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ZONE FARTHER NNW INTO IA. THE SETUP WILL THEREFORE FAVOR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND MAY YIELD EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39919491 40989480 41199405 41149316 40899301 39989279 38669278 38049339 38169455 38779477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 06:42:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 01:42:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180643.i8I6hbd19666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180639 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-180845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MD/DE/NJ/SE PA/FAR SE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180639Z - 180845Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN US WITH RAINBANDS EXTENDING SWD FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS MD...DE AND NJ. WITHIN THE BANDS...SOME CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS PRESENT AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL VEERING. IN ADDITION SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE CREATING LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS. THE LOW LCLS AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FAR ERN PA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY ANY ROTATING STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38417507 39157662 41237524 41427448 40937344 40287336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 09:14:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 04:14:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180914.i8I9Evd13092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180910 MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-181115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/SE NY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 180910Z - 181115Z THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PA EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ERN NY AND WRN NJ. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PART OF THE RAIN MAINLY ACROSS SE PA AND NRN NJ. THIS AREA HAS ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT OF 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE MTNS RUN SW TO NE AND THIS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE MTNS ARE ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS SE PA AND SE NY. ALTHOUGH DRYER AIR ON THE BACK EDGE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS ERODING THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT LATER THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 41557617 42557451 42937335 42797237 42187216 41597275 40967439 39937532 39617633 40137718 40647703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 19:18:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 14:18:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409181919.i8IJJ8d27287@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181914 AZZ000-CAZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181914Z - 182045Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER WRN AZ. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN AZ AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS AIDING INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY. WEAK CAP AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE W COAST. GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SWRN PART OF AZ WHERE CAPE IS STRONGER. GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE OVER THE NWRN PORTION WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE HIGHER. ..DIAL.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34571177 32091176 32091322 32891468 35911401 36931302 36711125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 07:32:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 02:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409190733.i8J7X5d23493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190728 AZZ000-CAZ000-190930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190728Z - 190930Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SERN CA INTO WRN AZ... DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY CA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG WELL DEFINED ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE...INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DISCRETE UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DRAW. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...OR PERHAPS SOME STRONG WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD INTO WRN AZ. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32781477 34911320 34591443 33741497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 10:57:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 05:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409191058.i8JAwld05593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191054 AZZ000-191200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 837... VALID 191054Z - 191200Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WW... LEADING EDGE OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW AND HAS EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MCS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY LESSEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS REACHING THE SFC AS INSTABILITY IS OVERTURNED AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33951375 35521264 35161203 33491321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 00:23:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 19:23:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409200024.i8K0OTd31841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200020 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200020Z - 200215Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE A BIT NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT MAY BE SHORT IN DURATION...AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. 01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS THREAT WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY ACTIVITY OF INTEREST IS FORMING ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED...AND STRONG INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OF LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS ONGOING. FORCING FOR ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LARGE-SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE BASED AT TOP OF FAIRLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY WITH CAPE MOSTLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS. THIS WILL TEND TO MARGINALIZE HAIL THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FROM WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION SPREADS DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKENS IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 09/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD... 41730234 43170253 44610241 46120148 47399993 47879920 45729830 43409847 41019931 39720025 39730092 40460167 40710187 41900258 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 17:38:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 12:38:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409201739.i8KHdad12068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201735 SDZ000-NEZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD AND NWRN/NCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201735Z - 201900Z PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL SD SWD INTO NWRN/NCNTRL NEB. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED ATTM. MESOANALYSIS AND VSBL SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD...SITUATED KBIS-KPHP-KAIA AT 17Z. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WERE SUPPORTING A BAND OF TSTMS. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL SD AND NCNTRL NEB HAD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80F AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...THOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE INHIBITING STRONG HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND AT LEAST 1000 J/KG MLCAPES...THE LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. PRIND THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. BUT...IF TSTMS INCREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED...ONE MAY BE ISSUED. ..RACY.. 09/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 41970243 42800178 44370116 45350103 45319961 44299921 42969970 41600080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 20:54:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 15:54:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409222054.i8MKsvd07787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222050 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222050Z - 222315Z STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF ECNTRL NM ACROSS THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE OK PNHDL AND SWRN KS. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEAR LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED. SHARP AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE TX PNHDL AND EXTENDS WWD INTO NERN NM. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. A DRYLINE/WINDSHIFT APPEARS TO BE MIXING EWD TOWARD ECNTRL NM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME UNSTABLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH...NOW ROTATING ACROSS CO/NRN NM...GRAZES THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE FROM PARTS OF NM ENEWD ACROSS TX. BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INTO THE EVENING SHOULD BE WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CVS TO AMA TO GAG. CELLS TRAVERSING THIS CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR... INSTABILITY...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW HAIL EVENTS. ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINES ALONG AND/OR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 09/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 38039949 37309860 34750093 32590310 32950456 33270464 35040392 35740240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 16:29:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 11:29:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409231629.i8NGTad15237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231628 LAZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL - T.S. IVAN TORNADOES VALID 231628Z - 231930Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL WW. STRENGTHENING/EXPANDING BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 16Z FROM NEAR ARA SEWD OVER ST MARY/WRN TERREBONNE PARISHES THEN SWD OVER GULF -- SHOULD SHIFT WWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND APPEARS TO REPRESENT LARGEST PROBABILITIES ON MESO-BETA SCALE. MODIFIED LIX RAOB AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO LOW-MID 80S F...IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS BETWEEN EXISTING CLOUD/PRECIP BANDS. ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR/VORTICITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH WHICH THEY INTERACT. AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA SHOW WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW -- I.E. 500 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KT -- THOUGH NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS IS LIKELY OVER COASTAL SWRN LA WHERE NO OBSERVATIONAL SAMPLING IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 300 J/KG -- JUXTAPOSED WITH WEAKENING CINH AND INCREASING BUOYANCY. LCH VWP SHOWS HODOGRAPH EXPANDING WITH TIME AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDAFTERNOON AS CENTER OF IVAN PASSES S AND SW OF THAT LOCATION. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR IVAN. ..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29749314 29939327 30419353 30709344 30889313 30899292 30829250 30469143 30069099 29579078 29139070 28889067 28759071 28739098 28809120 28979150 29499266 29649297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 17:06:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 12:06:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409231707.i8NH7Gd05056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231706 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231706 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231706Z - 231900Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN... RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS REFLECTIVITY IS INCREASING RAPIDLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...INDICATIVE OF THE IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT OCCURRING ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING YET WITH THE CONVECTION...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING...GIVEN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA CURRENTLY BEING SAMPLED BY VWP DATA FROM THE FSD RADAR. LATEST WV SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR PIERRE SD AND STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN SD AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING CONTRIBUTES TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS AREA. ..TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46229426 45509540 45079564 43369409 43739228 45869284 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 17:54:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 12:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409231755.i8NHtVd30807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231754 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-232000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTION NERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND...EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231754Z - 232000Z CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING N THROUGH NE OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THIS AREA. WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOME PART OF THIS REGION. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THIN ARC OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 1730Z FROM JUST E OF PIR TO SPINK COUNTY SD THEN SEWD TOWARD PIPESTONE COUNTY MN. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO LOCATION OF OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...E OF SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS AREA NEAR MN/DAKOTAS BORDERS...AS WELL AS ABR REGION...THROUGH 19-20Z TIME FRAME AND INTO SERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS NOT WELL SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS...HOWEVER VWP DATA AND FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES 0-3 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH THIS ARC. VWP SHOWED 90-100 KT 5-8 KM AGL SPEED MAX OVER FSD DURING PAST 2 HOURS -- AT LEAST 20-30 KT MORE THAN FCST BY ETA/RUC 500 MB PROGS. THIS INDICATES EVEN STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THAN PROGGED. IN FACT...SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SUSTAIN DISTINCT UPDRAFTS FOR VERY LONG GIVEN WEAK BUOYANCY. MAIN CAVEAT IS PRESENCE OF...AT MOST...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BECAUSE OF LIMITED SFC HEATING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION OF CONVECTION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES BELOW 300 J/KG...BUT ALSO LITTLE OR NO CINH FOR SFC-BASED PARCEL BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT. THOUGH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN INTACT AND DISCRETE...ANY SUSTAINED CELL COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE A TORNADO IN SUCH A FAVORABLY SHEARED PROFILE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44619943 45039978 45459981 45989911 46289831 46289704 45969624 44689550 43939581 44419674 44909776 44929880 44779945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 20:27:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 15:27:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409232028.i8NKS1d06665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232026 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232026Z - 232230Z ...ISOLD TSTM WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS MN ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS NWRN WI... LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF ABERDEEN...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE TO FAR/30 W INL. AN AXIS OF SFC INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE WITH LATEST WOODLAKE MN PROFILER OBSERVING 50-60 KT AT 1KM WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH EARLIER A 56 KT GUST OCCURRED AT ANE ON THE N SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...AND WILL HAVE STRONG/GUSTY TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE. ..TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF... 45899111 46689341 47659561 48609479 48699351 48439160 47789037 46219026 45889075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 19:45:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 14:45:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409241946.i8OJk8d03011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241945 NMZ000-242215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241945Z - 242215Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN NM...GENERALLY E OF LINE FROM GDP... SRR...LVS...20 NW RTN. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE FOR SHORT PERIOD BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS LOW AND QUITE CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES. PRIND WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB OVER MOUNTAINS ALONG W PERIPHERY OF DISCUSSION AREA. AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PECOS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOW TO HEAT DIURNALLY BECAUSE OF LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ATTM. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS REGION FROM ABOUT 50 MILES E OF AFOREMENTIONED LINE EWD TO TX BORDER...AFTER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF INSOLATION/MIXING. WITH SUCH MOISTURE UNDERLYING 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 800 J/KG N OF I-40 NERN NM TO AROUND 1700 J/KG E OF GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEAR APPEARS WEAK OVERALL BASED ON PROFILER DATA. HOWEVER...RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS -- TO SE OR S AT 10-20 KT -- YIELD MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SRH FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECIALLY S OF I-40. IF REALIZED ON STORM SCALE THIS COULD ENHANCE HAIL CAPACITY OF UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AT SFC. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUST STRENGTH IN DOWNDRAFTS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32050470 32580499 32950530 32960551 33140551 33500548 33890543 34400519 34950510 35160524 35490537 35870540 36200506 36490487 36860493 36970466 36980407 36950354 36880328 36520310 35590318 33790356 32110339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 18:12:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 13:12:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409251812.i8PICed26997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251811 NMZ000-AZZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...SMALL PART OF SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251811Z - 252045Z TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AREA FROM SRN-MOST APACHE COUNTY AZ NEWD TOWARD CIBOLA COUNTY NM...AND SEWD TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN VALENCIA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES NM. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT WW. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM AND OVER WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ NEAR NM BORDER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...ELEVATION DEPENDENT. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG INSOLATION COMBINES WITH THAT MOISTURE...BENEATH NEARLY 8-8.5 DEG C/KM LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH FLOW GENERALLY AOB 15 KT THROUGH MOST OF SFC-400 MB LAYER...BASED ON TUS/HDX VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...40-60 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTIONS IN SOME LOCALES SHOULD AID WITH STORM-SCALE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. EXTREMELY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SUCH A WEAK AMBIENT FLOW REGIME...AND BRIEF/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MIGHT OCCUR WITH A FEW TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ... 31760817 32590869 33590922 33820965 34051004 34161014 34311012 34371001 35210806 35070741 34730664 34340641 31790673 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 18:44:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 13:44:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409251844.i8PIiid06661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251843 FLZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL -- TC TORNADOES VALID 251843Z - 252115Z SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN FL...SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND FROM COAST AS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF HURRICANE JEANNE IMPINGES ON AREA. WW IS ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL VWP INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND TENDENCY FOR ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH APCH OF JEANNE. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME OPTIMIZED FOR SUPERCELLS OVER MIDDLE-OUTER PORTION OF CIRCULATION...NNW-NE OF CENTER. IN THAT SECTOR LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN 250-450 J/KG RANGE...AND SBCAPES 200-800 J/KG. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WITH SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS SUCH AS THOSE EVIDENT ATTM WELL OFFSHORE DAB-MLB CORRIDOR...AS THAT ACTIVITY PIVOTS LANDWARD WITH INCREASING FREQUENCY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE FARTHER N AS STABLE LAYER ALOFT -- EVIDENT IN 18Z JAX RAOB -- LIMITS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND AS SHEAR WEAKENS. REF NHC FCSTS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS...AS WELL AS TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS HURRICANE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27358023 27468086 27788130 28268162 29118183 29688169 30168135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 00:48:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 19:48:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409260049.i8Q0nFd24971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260048 FLZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE THROUGH SE FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 838... VALID 260048Z - 260245Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS JEANNE NEARS THE COAST. BEST THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BE OVER E CNTRL FL FROM NEAR FORT PIERCE NWD TO DAYTONA BEACH. CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY SWWD NEAR 50 KT OVER MUCH OF ERN FL. BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM MOTIONS AND VWP DATA FROM MELBOURNE...0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 48 KT. HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDING FROM MIAMI AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGESTS THE BUOYANCY IS VERY WEAK RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS JEANNE MOVES INLAND. ..DIAL.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26487980 26388124 27478155 29708205 29458096 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 15:14:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 10:14:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409261514.i8QFEMd30281@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261513 FLZ000-GAZ000-261715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN FL...SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 840... VALID 261513Z - 261715Z AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AROUND PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MORE BUOYANT AND SOME OF THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO NERN PORTION OF JEANNE. THEREFORE EXPECT OVERALL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE. THIS INCLUDES AIR MASS NOW OVER SERN GA...WHERE MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING ELY/DECREASING NLY FLOW COMPONENT...AND WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. IN NEAR TERM AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED RISK IS EVIDENT -- ACROSS PORTIONS VOLUSIA/FLAGLER/ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z...SPREADING OVER CLAY/PUTNAM/DUVAL/ALACHUA/UNION/BRADFORD/ BAKER COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z AND BEYOND. AS OF 15Z CENTER OF JEANNE IS OVER POLK COUNTY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM THERE ENEWD OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO POSITION APPROXIMATELY 30 NM N OF BUOY 41010 IN ATLANTIC. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SHIFT NWWD IN STEP WITH CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. DRYING EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY/SATELLITE LOOPS AND PERIPHERAL 12Z RAOBS IS EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO MORE OF ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION...AIDING IN DIURNAL HEATING. TROUGH THEN MAY BECOME WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND IN ANY EVENT SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL BOTH 1. WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING SEWD FROM DAB AND 2. WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS ON EITHER SIDE OF BAND MAY CROSS IT. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON JEANNE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27638019 27648262 31278310 31278060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 19:12:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 14:12:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409261912.i8QJCTd08059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261911 FLZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN FL AND SRN GA...EXTREME SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 840... VALID 261911Z - 262115Z TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAXIMIZED ALONG NE COAST OF FL -- ROUGHLY FROM FLAGLER COUNTY THRU JAX AREA...AND SHOULD SHIFT INLAND TOWARD N-CENTRAL PENINSULA AND SERN GA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED ST JOHNS COUNTY FL PAST HALF HOUR. ALSO...SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON N OF PRESENT WW...ACROSS PORTIONS SERN/S-CENTRAL GA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN SC. WW MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED NWD AS REPLACEMENT BEFORE SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW 840. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PREVIOUS TROUGH EXTENDING ENEWD FROM CYCLONE CENTER PAST CAPE CANAVERAL IS WEAKENING...AND SO IS ASSOCIATED STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AS FLOW TO ITS N VEERS SLIGHTLY. HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NE FL COAST. VWP AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 300-400 J/KG WITHIN 50-150 NM RADIUS FROM CENTER OVER NE QUADRANT...DIMINISHING INWARD AND OUTWARD FROM THERE. BUOYANCY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES 200-800 J/KG -- BASED ON OBSERVED AND MODIFIED 18Z JAX RAOB. SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM ST JOHNS COUNTY SEWD OVER ATLANTIC. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW -- ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC -- TO VEER GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E ACROSS SRN GA AND EXTREME SRN SC...IN RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH NWWD MOVEMENT OF JEANNE. CONFLUENCE LINE AND WEAK TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE NRN PORTION GA COAST AND SRN SC COAST MAY MOVE INLAND AS WELL...PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS IN NRN PERIPHERY OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVELOPE. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON JEANNE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...FFC... 27638019 27648262 31278310 31278060 31288309 32008254 32308230 32598157 32558047 32568008 32318046 31878071 31288060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 23:17:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 18:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409262318.i8QNIId23315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262316 GAZ000-FLZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL THROUGH SE GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 262316Z - 270115Z BEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 02Z IS EXPECTED FROM NERN FL NEAR THE JACKSONVILLE AREA NWD INTO PART OF SERN GA. EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NWRN FL PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NNWWD DIRECTION. PERSISTENT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ADVECTING ONSHORE ACROSS NE FL AND INTO SE GA CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE WWD MOVING RAINBANDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM ARE COLOCATED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. CURRENT RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG VELOCITY COUPLETS WITHIN THE MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WWD INTO THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THESE OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST THREAT AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD INTO SE GA WITH TIME. ..DIAL.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29308061 29888137 30378270 31728195 30748057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 01:54:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 20:54:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409270154.i8R1sgd11301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270153 SCZ000-270400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270153Z - 270400Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/COASTAL SC. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS OVER NWRN FL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A NNWWD-NWD MOTION TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OFFSHORE FROM SC SWWD WHERE IT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SERN GA AND NERN FL. E OF THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD ONTO THE SC COAST AS JEANNE CONTINUES NWD. DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCRETE CONVECTION OVER COASTAL SC WITH SOME ROTATION OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE REGIME ONSHORE. AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND TONIGHT... STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ONSHORE. STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..DIAL.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33167933 32688012 32168094 32958130 33597943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 15:20:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:20:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409271521.i8RFLod17550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271427 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271427 SCZ000-GAZ000-271630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271427Z - 271630Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS MINI-SUPERCELLS TRACK NWWD ACROSS ERN GA AND PARTS OF SC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN GA. NARROW RAINBANDS EXTEND SEWD AROUND THE NRN PART OF JEANNES CIRCULATION. SEVERAL MINI-SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ACROSS NRN AND ERN SC WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THE SHEAR BECOMES EVEN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN GA AND THIS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT TRACK NWWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST TONGUE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS MOIST TONGUE WILL MOVE NWD INTO NC ALLOWING LCL HEIGHTS TO DROP. THIS COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE STRONG WIND PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 30778160 31618206 32098267 32368326 32888341 34098250 34528101 34337942 33687856 33087912 32438039 31568114 30958126  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 19:23:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 14:23:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409271924.i8RJOsd24956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271924 NCZ000-SCZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 843... VALID 271924Z - 272100Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAINBANDS MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WW WILL BE REPLACED WITHIN THE HOUR AND BE ADJUSTED NORTH INTO NC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE IS CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL GA WITH RAINBANDS ORIENTED SSE TO NNW OUT TO ABOUT 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AT THE SFC...THE MOIST TONGUE IS EXPANDING ACROSS SC AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S F DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND WARMING TEMPS...MLCAPE VALUES NOW RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN SC AND SRN NC. IN ADDITION...THE BACKED SFC FLOW IS RESULTING IN STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FROM TORNADOES. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. ..BROYLES.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32868110 33578146 34098151 35687900 35247791 34477754 32877994 32528051 32618080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 22:04:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 17:04:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409272206.i8RM6Jd14054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272205 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...AND THE MTNS OF WRN SC/WRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 272205Z - 280000Z LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5"/HR LASTING FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS FAR NERN GA NEWD ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN SC/SWRN NC. AT 2145Z...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JEANNE WERE PASSING JUST EAST OF MACON GA. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE SERN SEABOARD /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ FROM CONTINENTAL AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS NERN GA/SWRN SC WILL SHIFT NEWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG A SW-NE AXIS ACROSS WRN SC/WRN NC INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...VERY STRONG ELY FLOW BETWEEN 1-3KM PER GREER VAD WIND PROFILE /40-45KT/ COMBINED WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2" WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MTNS RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT UNTIL SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES PAST THE AREA. ..BANACOS.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34458215 34048325 34248356 34688369 35138354 35818249 36098194 36228151 36048107 35438100 35078123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 22:30:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 17:30:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409272232.i8RMWAd26069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272231 NCZ000-SCZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SC THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 844... VALID 272231Z - 280030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HIGHEST THREAT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL SC NWD THROUGH CNTRL NC. EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS OVER CNTRL GA. A NEAR STATIONARY COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SC NEAR COLUMBIA TO JUST E OF RALEIGH IN NC. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR E OF COASTAL FRONT. OUTER RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NWWD THROUGH THE ERN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS ANYWHERE IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE AS STORMS CROSS AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LIFT ARE LOCALLY ENHANCED. ..DIAL.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34647746 33777891 32668033 33258096 34248176 35627999 35657816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 06:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 01:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409280700.i8S70Jd25983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280659 NCZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845... VALID 280659Z - 280900Z ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENT WW...WHICH RUNS TIL 08Z...APPEARS TO COVER MUCH OF PRIMARY THREAT...AND MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF JEANNE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF AUGUSTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. 40 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL JET EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER NOW EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN NARROW PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING IN ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ROTATE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 12-15Z. INDIVIDUAL CELLS NEAR FAYETTEVILLE WILL DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE RALEIGH AREA THROUGH 08-09Z...AND APPEAR PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. ..KERR.. 09/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35227937 35687974 36077937 36167876 35917794 35397783 35047782 34787817 34977906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 12:55:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 07:55:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409281256.i8SCujd13623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281256 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-281500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC/SE VA/SRN DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281256Z - 281500Z RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS NOW NORTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE NC...AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...HAS SHIFTED WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. UNSTABLE TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES...HAS BECOME CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...FROM NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. AS THIS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASING SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN MORE VIGOROUS CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS BAND LIKELY WILL SHIFT OFF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 09/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX... 35077628 36117628 37287626 38007648 38827583 38937522 38917487 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 19:30:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 14:30:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409011931.i81JVrL13937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011928 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-012130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ORE NEWD INTO NRN ID AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 011928Z - 012130Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MTNS OF FAR NERN ORE...NRN ID INTO WRN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN ORE...NRN ID AND WRN MT WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REGION OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. A NARROW ZONE OF LOWER 50S DEWPTS STILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AID IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. 40-50 KT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE MTNS/HIGHER TERRAIN. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT...DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE 40-50 DEG F. COMBINED WITH LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WILL AID IN AN INCREASING TREND TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 09/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 44741718 45331770 46491658 47511576 48591465 49111277 48810987 47850929 47020945 46251019 45151281 44821531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 20:22:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 15:22:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409012023.i81KNjL16451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012020 IAZ000-012215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 012020Z - 012215Z POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING... WITH PERHAPS ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS SOUTH OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA/ NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ONGOING ACROSS IOWA. THIS IS PERHAPS AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 22-23Z...MAINLY EAST OF THE DES MOINES AREA...WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. WEAK FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS...IN MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. ..KERR.. 09/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43109356 42609177 41879103 41009146 40869307 41449421 42789478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 19:44:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 14:44:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409021945.i82JjtL03370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021942 MIZ000-WIZ000-022115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN WI...CNTRL/ERN U.P AND FAR NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 021942Z - 022115Z AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONT AND/OR LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AND OR WW ISSUANCE. RAPID SCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING CU OVER DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE 1830Z. ADDITIONAL MODERATE CU HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA/FAR NERN WI AND OVER FAR NRN LOWER MI. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT COUPLED WITH AREAS OF MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 21Z. RECENT RUC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR STRONG-SVR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING AND AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ONLY 15-20 KTS AT 500 MB SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 09/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 46528685 45888787 45488808 44938815 44578757 45178387 45538385 46388425 46598574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 19:29:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 14:29:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409031930.i83JUcG20898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031927 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-032130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 031927Z - 032130Z TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING/ DEEPENING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND WRN NEW MEXICO. WHILE WARM/DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS SLOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...COOLING/MOISTENING IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. ADDITIONALLY..TONGUE OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THUS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE STILL RATHER WEAK...CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. CONTINUING PRESENCE OF UNSATURATED AIR IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. ..KERR.. 09/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31411143 32521121 33201093 33801012 35110983 36410879 37090924 36140747 34770716 32750797 31760807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 10:06:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 05:06:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409041008.i84A85G24790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041004 MNZ000-NDZ000-041130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND/NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041004Z - 041130Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AS OF 0950Z...FARGO/GRAND FORKS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN ND...THE MOST INTENSE OF WHICH WERE LOCATED OVER RAMSEY AND NELSON COUNTIES. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 3KM WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM OF THE BUOYANCY LAYER /I.E. 35-40KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 47969863 48689819 49019719 48989593 48409496 47449664 47059743 47409842 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 11:18:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 06:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409041119.i84BJiG13670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041116 FLZ000-041245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/LOWER ERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041116Z - 041245Z IN ADDITION TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE BANDS. LATEST MELBOURNE/MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED RAINBAND WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SSWWD ACROSS ERN GLADES COUNTY. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE NNELY WINDS INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANTLY ATOP SHALLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES AOB 200 J/KG/. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS AIRMASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ANY CELLS MOVING ONSHORE. ADDITIONALLY...INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 2.30-2.40 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5-5.5 KFT SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-2.5 INCHES. ..MEAD.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 27557985 26397986 26058042 26288096 27508126 28798080 28688011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 14:57:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 09:57:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409041459.i84Ex0G21876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041455 NMZ000-COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-041700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AZ INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 041455Z - 041700Z A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS... BUT THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF...AND NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD UPPER TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX INTO THE IMMEDIATE FOUR CORNERS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET IS PROVING FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS...EMBEDDED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. AIDED BY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN ARIZONA. SOME HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN WARMER/ MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO AREAS NORTH OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...BY THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERHAPS STILL TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS REGION MAY LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...HOWEVER. MEANWHILE...INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA...RESULTING IN WEAKENING/DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33541183 34721087 35401019 36810931 37550875 36700667 35410656 34080790 32840924 32361029 33091134 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 20:09:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 15:09:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409042010.i84KAPG03097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042006 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/NW AND W CNTRL MN...NE SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 042006Z - 042200Z CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE/INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FARGO ND AREA...ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD GENERATED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS LATTER FEATURE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...MODELS SUGGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INTENSIFY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO WARM SECTOR OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE/LOW IN THE ABERDEEN SD AREA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/SHORT DURATION SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BY THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. PRIMARY RISKS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. ..KERR.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47049801 47689701 47489545 46179537 45509630 44839694 44439738 44209819 44919852 45999824 46269844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 23:05:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 18:05:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409042306.i84N6qG29656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042302 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-050130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...CNTRL NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042302Z - 050130Z PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. A SHARP COLD FRONT ALIGNED SW-NE FROM NERN CO INTO NCNTRL NEB EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG PREFRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NWRN KS AND INTO SWRN NEB OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION TO MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FLOWING ACROSS THE FRONT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING AND PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH/WIND MAX ROTATING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SUSTAIN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB TONIGHT. ACTIVITY NOW SPREADING NEWD ALONG THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS HOT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. CURRENTLY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WERE RELATIVELY WARM WITH RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATING MARGINAL LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...INCREASING ASCENT COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB. A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE GIVEN POST-FRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT. WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED...AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 42880044 42929868 40009932 39320219 41340232  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 23:32:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 18:32:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409042333.i84NXjG05119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042330 FLZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042330Z - 050100Z A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER FL SHORTLY. LARGE EYEWALL OF HRCN FRANCES WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-CNTRL COAST OF FL THIS EVENING. TROPICAL TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PENINSULA EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION LUMBERS WNWWD. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INFORMATION SUGGESTS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE HRCN WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2. CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL CAN UTILIZE THIS SHEAR TO PRODUCE SMALL SCALE AND SHORT LIVED TORNADOES AND POCKETS OF HIGHER DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST WITHIN CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS SPREADING INLAND WELL AWAY FROM THE EYEWALL. GIVEN SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF FRANCES...THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL OBVIOUSLY EXIST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 26648003 26638207 29848329 29908119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 21:26:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 16:26:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052127.i85LRgG32015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052109 FLZ000-GAZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E COAST OF FL/SE GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 800... VALID 052109Z - 052315Z HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BANDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF T.S. FRANCES EXTENDING FROM SE GA OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS IS THE WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE INFLUX IS CONCENTRATED...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DESTABILIZATION. ALSO...RADAR IMAGERY HAS PERIODICALLY SHOWN MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY DISCRETE CELL AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. LATEST VWP WIND DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE INDICATES AROUND 35-45 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-1 KM SHEAR WITH CIRCULAR HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE...INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT. CENTER OF FRANCES IS NOW OVER POLK/HILLSBOROUGH CO LINE...AND AS THE INNER CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED RISK OF TORNADOES ALONG THE W CNTRL FL COAST. OTHERWISE...BAND OF STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL GA INTO W CNTRL FL PANHANDLE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS AS IT MOVES WNW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EDGE OF THE RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS MAY BE MARKED BY THIS BAND GIVEN WEAK CHARACTER OF CUMULUS FIELD FARTHER NORTHWEST. ..TAYLOR.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX... 27617866 29048104 30018218 31288289 31698181 29757919 28547815 27777812  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 21:44:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 16:44:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052145.i85LjeG04677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052142 WIZ000-MNZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0442 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052142Z - 052345Z PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MN...NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 801...MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY ANOTHER WATCH AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CNTRL MN ATTM AND WAS SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A FMM TO JMR LINE. A N-S PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE INTERSECTED THE WARM FRONT OVER NRN TODD AND WRN WADENA COUNTIES WITH MOST ACTIVE CELLS BASED ON LTG DATA CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THE LINE OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SITUATED ACROSS ECNTRL MN. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING STRONG AND DEEP SLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE ONGOING LINE CAN POSE A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND OR TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS ORIENTATION TO THE MEAN FLOW. HOWEVER...STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM WILL PROBABLY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT/SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION AND STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ROTATION. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS TREND TOWARD GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45279573 45349639 47029633 47539347 47599259 46019211 45199216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 22:41:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 17:41:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052242.i85MguG21705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052239 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 801... VALID 052239Z - 060015Z STRONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWED SEGMENTS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING FROM ADAIR AND GUTHRIE COUNTIES INTO DALLAS AND MADISON COUNTIES AT ABOUT 40KT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER FROM JACKSON COUNTY MN INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IA...AND POINTS SOUTH. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ENEWD FROM ERN SD AND NERN NEB TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB...AND NEAR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SERN SD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DYNAMIC FORCING INVOF THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB IS LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS OVER SD COULD CONTAIN HAIL GIVEN DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER COLD POOL. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 44469796 45199304 40599278 40719619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 22:47:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 17:47:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052249.i85MnAG23126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052246 COR MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 801... VALID 052246Z - 060015Z CORRECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO TORNADO WATCH STRONG PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWED SEGMENTS CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING FROM ADAIR AND GUTHRIE COUNTIES INTO DALLAS AND MADISON COUNTIES AT ABOUT 40KT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER FROM JACKSON COUNTY MN INTO DICKINSON COUNTY IA...AND POINTS SOUTH. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ENEWD FROM ERN SD AND NERN NEB TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB...AND NEAR THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OVER SERN SD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DYNAMIC FORCING INVOF THESE FEATURES SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB IS LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STORMS OVER SD COULD CONTAIN HAIL GIVEN DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER COLD POOL. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 44469796 45199304 40599278 40719619 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 23:11:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 18:11:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052312.i85NCLG29957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052308 MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO....ERN KS....NRN/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 052308Z - 060145Z SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD/SEWD ALONG PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN MO ACROSS ERN KS AND INTO NWRN OK. VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TSTMS ALONG THE LINE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO 500MB TEMPERATURES OF AOA MINUS 5C...SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. ALSO...WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ONLY POORLY ORGANIZED LINEAR MULTICELLS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NWRN MO...ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. ONE OR TWO STORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION COULD BRIEFLY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...HOWEVER... CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE FOR A WATCH TO BE ISSUED. ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 37169474 34549852 35759920 37689604 40399436 40419234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 23:32:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 18:32:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409052334.i85NYJG03498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052330 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052330Z - 060130Z ...ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL FOR NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NO WW IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... STORMS ARE LIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS WRN WI AND APPEAR TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. RECENT VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM THE MINNEAPOLIS RADAR INDICATES SEVERAL ROTATIONAL COUPLETS...SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS OR SO. RECENT VWP DATA ALSO FROM MPX SHOW NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE FOR ROTATING STORMS. THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH HOWEVER...SO AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..TAYLOR.. 09/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 43439120 43619267 45109280 45249000 44728961 43459001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 01:05:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 20:05:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060107.i8617CG01032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060106 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060103 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-060200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 801... VALID 060103Z - 060200Z PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WAS MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 801 ATTM. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL IA HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS OF GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHERE DMX VWP DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS STORMS MOVE INTO ERN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE...LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO OFFSET THE SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO RISK. THEREFORE CURRENT WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 0200Z/9PM CDT AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40689282 40639544 42189523 43559565 45239543 45199279 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 04:14:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 23:14:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060415.i864FPG32188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060412 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802... VALID 060412Z - 060615Z CENTER OF LARGE T.S. FRANCES HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE EXTREME NERN GULF TO THE NW OF TPA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF FL WITH SOME SLACKENING IN THE SURFACE ISOBAR GRADIENT ACROSS SRN GA. THIS WEAKER GRADIENT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN SOMEWHAT LOWER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS SRN GA WHERE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 25-35KT EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE EAST COAST. WITHIN ABOUT 1KM OF THE SURFACE...A BELT OF ELY WINDS OF AT LEAST 60KT IS INDICATED BY VWP DATA FROM JAX...CHS...AND VAX. THIS VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS RESULTING IN EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 ACROSS MOST OF NORTH FL AND INTO SRN GA. GIVEN THIS AXIS OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS...ANY CELLULAR ELEMENTS/STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE FEEDER BANDS ROTATING AROUND FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SPIN-UP BRIEF TORNADOES. THIS SITUATION CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH CELLS COMING ASHORE OVER SERN GA WHERE SOME CG LTG IS BEING DETECTED. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH LESS ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE PER LTG STRIKE DATA ...WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN FL. GIVEN LARGE AND VERY STRONG FLOW AROUND FRANCES...TROPICAL CYCLONE SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN OCCASIONAL THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 28928085 29368508 31988513 31478083 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 05:22:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 00:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060524.i865OIG21864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060523 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060521 SCZ000-GAZ000-060645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060521Z - 060645Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONSHORE. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST CHARLESTON REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION/SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PRESENT WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING ONSHORE OVER BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. CURRENT VWP MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS INDICATES THAT NEAR-GROUND ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2. THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RISING LFC HEIGHTS NWD FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33547906 33708044 33708165 33418223 32688151 32538007 32757900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 08:08:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 03:08:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409060810.i868AGG05247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060806 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 802... VALID 060806Z - 060930Z GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH 10 OR 11Z IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SERN GA...WITH A SLOW EWD SHIFT ACROSS S-CNTRL GA/N-CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS. LATEST CHS REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA SHOW A RAINBAND WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES FROM 60S CHS WWD TO 30W OF SAV WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION OF 115/35. SYNTHESIS OF RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS WITH CURRENT VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT CORRIDOR FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SWD TO THE FL BORDER AND INLAND 80-100NM REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 300-350 M2/S2. EXPECT HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF PARENT TROPICAL SYSTEM. THREAT AREA SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD INTO S-CNTRL GA/N-CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32008515 31798287 32138221 32098128 31498081 28848082 29368513 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 11:50:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 06:50:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409061151.i86BpnG07235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061148 FLZ000-061315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061148Z - 061315Z POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WW IS BEING ISSUED. RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN RAINBAND FROM JUST S OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR NEWD INTO POLK/OSCEOLA COUNTIES ON BACKSIDE OF FRANCES CIRCULATION. IT APPEARS THAT LOCALIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE IS OVERCOMING BROADER-SCALE PRESSURE RISES AND ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE BAND. CURRENT TAMPA AND MELBOURNE VWPS INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THIS SAME CORRIDOR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 300-400 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN STABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26468306 28428201 29318149 29018089 28168049 26358174 25948274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 16:30:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 11:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409061632.i86GW3G28390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061628 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / SRN HALF OF GA / CENTRAL AND NRN FL / ERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 803...804... VALID 061628Z - 061800Z NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED TO REPLACE WW 803 AND 804 WHICH EXPIRE AT 06/18Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY PLACES THE CENTER OF FRANCES APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SSW TLH ATTM...JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. FAVORABLE BANDING CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL FL NWD INTO ERN GA / SERN SC...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES THAT SOME THINNING OR EVEN BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST MAY SUPPORT LIMITED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD /CHARLESTON SC AND JACKSONVILLE FL VWPS INDICATING 35 TO 40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 350 TO 400 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY/ AND VERY MOIST / TROPICAL AIRMASS...ANY HEATING / DESTABILIZATION WILL ONLY FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THEREFORE...NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED COVERING THE ERN HALF OF FRANCES' CIRCULATION. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 33298214 33097961 31728116 30198143 28458058 27808046 26978150 26778225 27818278 28788268 29848362 30068409 29878468 30678466 32588384 33058323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 19:57:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 14:57:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409061958.i86JwuG29360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061955 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SC/NERN FL COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 805...806... VALID 061955Z - 062200Z IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45 E MCN/35 S SAV/40 NNE MLB. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER OUTER BAND NOW OVER GULF STREAM HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG /. VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE DISCRETE CELLS...SO THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND EVENTUALLY MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF SC. IN THE SHORT TERM...BACKED/SELY FLOW AS NOTED IN SFC OBS OFF THE FL/SE GA COASTS...WILL ONLY INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM THE RADARS IN JACKSONVILLE FL AND VALDESTA GA SUGGEST 35-50 KT OF LOW LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS PERHAPS HIGHER TODAY THAN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM/COAST ORIENTATION. ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX...FFC...TAE... 28518033 28778155 29058201 30298311 31248359 32468347 33248280 33318104 33167943 30867962 29327969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 21:07:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 16:07:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409062108.i86L8xG29973@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062105 COR SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-062200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SC/NERN FL COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...806... VALID 062105Z - 062200Z CORRECTED FOR TORNADO WATCH IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45 E MCN/35 S SAV/40 NNE MLB. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER OUTER BAND NOW OVER GULF STREAM HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG /. VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE DISCRETE CELLS...SO THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND EVENTUALLY MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF SC. IN THE SHORT TERM...BACKED/SELY FLOW AS NOTED IN SFC OBS OFF THE FL/SE GA COASTS...WILL ONLY INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM THE RADARS IN JACKSONVILLE FL AND VALDESTA GA SUGGEST 35-50 KT OF LOW LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS PERHAPS HIGHER TODAY THAN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM/COAST ORIENTATION. ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX...FFC...TAE... 28518033 28778155 29058201 30298311 31248359 32468347 33248280 33318104 33167943 30867962 29327969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 23:14:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 18:14:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409062315.i86NFPG14889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062312 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA...SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 805...806... VALID 062312Z - 070115Z ISOLATED FEEDER BAND SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN FL/SERN GA AND SRN SC TONIGHT AS CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY NWD OVER SRN GA. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS VERY LARGE...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WINDS /50-60KT/ ARE SITUATED WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...PRIMARILY FROM EXTREME NERN FL NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO SC. SHEAR AND HELICITY ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE BANDS OF CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND FRANCES. STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF STREAM WATERS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO CONVECTION FARTHER INLAND BASED ON LTG STRIKE DATA. THUS...IT SEEMS THAT ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 30028133 30038265 32148304 33558166 33347912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 07:24:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 02:24:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409070725.i877PhG19656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070722 SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL...ERN GA...SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 807... VALID 070722Z - 070845Z ANOTHER REPLACEMENT WW PROBABLY WILL MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 9Z EXPIRATION. WITH GRADUAL INLAND SHIFT OF PARENT CYCLONE AND OF ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY FIELDS IN ERN SEMICIRCLE...SUCH WW MAY NEED TO BE POSITIONED SOMEWHAT FARTHER N AND/OR W. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF FORMER TC FRANCES INVOF GA/AL BORDER APPROXIMATELY 40 NNE DHN...MOVING NNW 10-15 KT AND POSSIBLY TURNING N OR NNE TOWARD ISALLOBARIC MIN ANALYZED OVER W-CENTRAL GA. THERMAL/MOIST AXIS ARE NEARLY COLOCATED -- INVOF SAV RIVER. GIVEN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES CHARACTERISTIC OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO AXIS OF MAX BUOYANCY -- MUCAPE INCREASING FROM AROUND 200 J/KG BETWEEN AHN-MCN TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG INVOF SAV. KINEMATICALLY...SFC WINDS ARE DIMINISHING FASTER THAN FLOW ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER -- I.E. AT 850 MB -- RESULTING IN NET INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER MUCH OF WW AREA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS SC/GA. VWP AND MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND NRN FL...ALONG NRN AND SRN PERIPHERIES RESPECTIVELY OF INSTABILITY AXIS. SRH IS MAXIMIZED ABOVE 400 J/KG OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN GA JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM CORE...BUT IN REGION OF MINIMIZED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND MORE STRATIFIED/NEBULOUS PRECIP CHARACTER. OPTIMAL COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NWD FROM E-CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC INTO NERN GA AND CENTRAL SC. TORNADO THREAT NOT FINISHED BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS NRN FL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN N FL AREA ABOVE SFC...SHIFTING LARGEST HODOGRAPHS FARTHER N. STILL...SOME OF NRN FL MAY NEED TO REMAIN IN WW BEYOND 09Z. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX... 29268236 33828180 33817917 29247987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 09:33:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 04:33:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409070934.i879YRG27424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070930 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-071230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA...NWRN SD AND SWRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070930Z - 071230Z HEAVY RAINFALL HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z OVER NWRN SC AND SWRN NC -- ESPECIALLY ON SE FACING SLOPES -- WITH 2-3 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY IN MANY LOCALES. REMAINS OF TC FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NWD THROUGH MIDMORNING...CENTERED INVOF AL/GA BORDER BUT CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD ENVELOPE OF HEAVY WARM-CLOUD PRECIP AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 250 NM OF CENTER IN NERN SEMICIRCLE. NRN PORTION OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE UPON MORE OF SRN APPALACHIANS. INTENSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UPSLOPE EXPECTED AMIDST 35-50 KT SELY LLJ AND PW EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED AMIDST NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...SBCAPES TO 300 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY SUPPORT LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NRN GA. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT NORMAL TO HIGHLANDS IS NOT AS LARGE HERE AS FARTHER NE...GREATEST THREAT HERE ALSO IS ON SE-FACING SLOPES WITH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR COMMON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34958472 35038437 35508339 35938208 35718110 35328091 35168098 34918132 34758229 34658345 34668449 34598498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 15:31:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 10:31:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409071533.i87FX3G30085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071532 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071529 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-071700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC / ERN GA / NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 808... VALID 071529Z - 071700Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF SC. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR REPLACING WW 808...WHICH WILL EXTEND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NWD INTO SRN NC. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS FRANCES DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS SWRN GA. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N FL -- PRIMARILY WITHIN MAIN FEEDER BAND EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF TPA TO JUST S OF JAX -- AS WELL AS INTO PARTS OF ERN GA...GREATEST THREAT REMAINS ACROSS SC. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF SC...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR WITH TIME ACROSS SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE REGION. OVERALL HOWEVER...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE THINNER CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK HEATING HAS ALLOWED AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP. WITH LATEST COLUMBIA AND CHARLESTON SC VWPS SHOWING PERSISTENT 35 TO 40 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR / OVER 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM HELICITY...LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 35128235 35008149 34787918 34137842 32258044 31948119 32038293 34828353 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 19:21:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 14:21:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409071922.i87JMlG26944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071919 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA / SC / SRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 809...810... VALID 071919Z - 072115Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS A BROAD AREA WITHIN WW 809 AND 810. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEARLY STATIONARY CENTER FRANCES NEAR CSG /COLUMBUS GA/...WITH VERY MOIST / MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEWD ACROSS ERN GA AND SC INTO NC. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE BANDING IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...NUMEROUS MINI SUPERCELLS WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY FROM NERN SC INTO SERN PORTIONS OF NC. WITH VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /30-PLUS KT 0-1 KM SHEAR CONTINUES ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/...EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 35418283 35588001 35397814 34097775 31598121 31588252 34598334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 22:09:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 17:09:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409072210.i87MAgG19697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072207 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN GA...SC AND SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 809...810... VALID 072207Z - 072300Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...TORNADO WATCHES 809 AND 810 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF EXTREME ERN GA...MUCH OF SC...INTO PARTS OF SRN NC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WAS NEARING CNTRL GA AND CONTINUES MOVING IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION. SEE DISCUSSIONS FROM HPC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH N CNTRL SC. AN INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES ADVECTING NWWD INTO MUCH OF SC AND SRN NC...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONE OF PARTIAL CLEARING ADVECTING NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF THIS STATE. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PERSIST E OF THE CENTER OF FRANCES AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE E-W BOUNDARY OVER SC. GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E REGIME OVER SC AND SRN NC AS THEY MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. ..DIAL.. 09/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 34257778 33787869 33067947 32328078 31658155 33658256 34918326 35097861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 02:11:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 21:11:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409080213.i882DCG22589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080212 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080209 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-080345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN GA...SC AND SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 811... VALID 080209Z - 080345Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN HALF OF SC INTO SRN NC. THIS EVENING AN E-W BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SERN NC WWD THROUGH NRN SC. THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES IS NOW LOCATED OVER CNTRL GA MOVING NWD. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER THETA-E REGIME E OF THE CENTER FROM SERN GA EWD THROUGH MUCH OF SC AND ARE LIFTING NWD INTO SRN NC. MINI SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAINBANDS LIFTING NWD AND INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN SC INTO SRN NC WILL CONTINUE TO POSE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34007835 31978106 32068194 33938176 34848249 35628217 35477978 35167826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 07:41:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 02:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409080742.i887gRG09717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080738 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-081045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL NC...MUCH OF SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 812... VALID 080738Z - 081045Z TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA AMIDST GENERALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. INSTABILITY RANGES FROM VERY MARGINAL OVER MUCH OF PIEDMONT -- I.E. LESS THAN 200 J/KG SBCAPE IN 6Z GSO RAOB -- TO AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER COASTAL SC AND SERN NC...USING MODIFIED RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE CENTER OVER EXTREME N-CENTRAL GA DRIFTING NNE...AND WEAK TROUGH EWD ACROSS CENTRAL SC TO VICINITY ILM. EARLIER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE AGAIN...NOW THAT DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING HAS BEEN LOST FOR 6-8 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SUCH A BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN DEVELOP BY MIDMORNING AFTER A FEW HOURS OF INSOLATION...EXPECT SUPERCELL FOCUS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN MEANTIME TO BE MORE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC ACROSS WW AREA. PROBABILITIES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER NRN HALF OF WW -- FROM CENTRAL SC NWD -- WHERE 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 450 J/KG PREVAILS PER OBSERVED GSO HODOGRAPH. FARTHER S...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE DECREASES...WITH MOST STORMS MOVING NEAR TO OR ALONG HODOGRAPH HAVING LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS -- I.E. LINE OVER AIKEN BARNWELL/ALLENDALE COUNTIES SC AT 730Z. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SRH IS LARGE ONLY FOR DISCRETE CELLS MOVING WITH SIGNIFICANT EWD COMPONENT -- RIGHTWARD OF BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND OF SHEAR VECTOR THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER. STILL...TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS NOT DIMINISHED ENOUGH YET TO JUSTIFY REMOVING SRN SC FROM WW. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 31807794 32378221 36148222 35567798 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 12:43:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 07:43:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409081244.i88CiQG15570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081241 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-081445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC...SRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813... VALID 081241Z - 081445Z TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING. WITH INSOLATION STRONGEST OVER RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE AREAS OF NC...DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CYCLONE. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS PROCESS WILL BE OVER NRN NC...SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN VA. THIS REGION WILL BE IN OPTIMAL OVERLAP OF NRN PORTION OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY AND SRN PORTION OF RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW -- WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST ENLARGED. 12Z GSO RAOB SHOWS 200-300 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 700 J/KG SBCAPE PRIOR TO DIURNAL HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH EWD EXTENT NEAR ERN EDGE OF WW BASED ON VWP AND RAOBS. SHEAR DROPS OFF MORE GRADUALLY WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS NC. STILL...AIR MASS S OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE IN WW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVER THIS AREA EXPECT SBCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND FAVORABLE SRH -- ESPECIALLY FOR ANY CELLS DEVIATING RIGHTWARD FROM PREVAILING ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34547729 34548083 37208112 37227747 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 16:02:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 11:02:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409081604.i88G44G03522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081600 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-081800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 813... VALID 081600Z - 081800Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 813. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF VIRGINIA... LIKELY INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...BY 18Z. INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA HAS BEEN MINIMIZED TO THIS POINT BY SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF VIRGINIA IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS ONGOING. WITH LITTLE REMAINING INHIBITION...INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SLOWLY NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH REGION... ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... 35627955 36777943 37337939 38057901 38877804 38897705 37847682 36587681 35787710 35097739 34657772 34327837 34627908 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 19:42:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 14:42:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409081943.i88JhbG06169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081939 MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 814... VALID 081939Z - 082145Z CONTINUE WW. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES...BROADER SCALE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE A BIT. WARM...VERY MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF RICHMOND VA INTO THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON D.C AND CHARLOTTESVILLE...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SUNSHINE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ARE MOST PRONOUNCED. RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITH NORTH-SOUTH BANDS OF CONVECTION SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WITH HODOGRAPHS MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL NEAR THESE LINES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT AS MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS TRANSFERRED TOWARD SURFACE. ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WASHINGTON D.C./NORFOLK BY AROUND 09/00Z. ..KERR.. 09/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 38647844 39097751 39587656 37527604 36087678 35217792 35807842 37407847 37987862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 20:19:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 15:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409102020.i8AKKPO02031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102016 SDZ000-102215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102016Z - 102215Z STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW...AND WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN WAKE OF SURFACE TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED NORTHEAST OF RAPID CITY INTO THE MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60F...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED TO NEAR 80F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH WARM LAYERS IN THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE CAP AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO INITIATION...UPPER FLOW FIELD IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. TOWARD 10/23Z-11/00Z...PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR MOBRIDGE AND AREAS TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER SMALL...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEAKENING BY 11/01-02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 09/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 45090276 45750125 45930033 45559980 44980011 44459989 44040008 43850064 43820136 43890224 44420287 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 04:04:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 23:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409110405.i8B45dO11958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110357 SDZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110357Z - 110600Z ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL SD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA EXTENDING NEWD TO JUST WEST OF PIERRE SD. AN ONGOING SMALL MCS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR NWRN SD. AS A RESULT...THE MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AFFECTING SCNTRL AND ECNTRL SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT). THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH NEW CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44470100 44880040 44999903 44859793 44339745 43619757 43359887 43560031 43970098  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 20:04:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 15:04:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409112005.i8BK5ZO00952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111959 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-112200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COLORADO VALLEY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SVR POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN VALID 111959Z - 112200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INCREASES... BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER...HAS MAINTAINED INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE COLORADO VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING...THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. WHILE OROGRAPHY IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE/BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...AS SURFACE HEATING BECOMES REDUCED AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS ..KERR.. 09/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN... 36291620 37111682 37791632 38661450 38581202 37271092 35751119 34751228 33981379 33311429 33211512 34221617 35551596  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 15:48:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 10:48:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409121549.i8CFnqO22127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121541 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAIN VALID 121541Z - 121815Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES ...IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS FEATURE IS NOW SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS...LIKELY BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE JACKSON TN AREA DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE HOPKINSVILLE KY AREA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION... BUT NEW ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM...INTO THE VICINITY OF DYERSBURG. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE BEGINS TO WARM INTO THE 80S. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BENEATH APPROACHING CIRCULATION IS ALREADY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND MID-LEVEL POCKET OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR... SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...EXPANDING/SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS. ..KERR.. 09/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34498969 35168980 35628991 36478943 36688881 36538775 35728751 34688801 34138924  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 20:51:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 15:51:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409122053.i8CKrCO27682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122041 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-122245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NW AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122041Z - 122245Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL... AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO CONSOLIDATION INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS...IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR PROFILES...CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN STRONGEST CELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEYOND PEAK HEATING...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE... AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DIMINISH BY AROUND 13/00Z. ..KERR.. 09/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... 35748927 36478872 36558770 36098675 35408705 34828766 34078817 33498884 33419011 33819081 34708969  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 18:07:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 13:07:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409131808.i8DI8sO06094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131804 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN SWD ACROSS NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131804Z - 131930Z POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND NRN AL. HERE... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S INTO LOWER 80S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -10C IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER IS SHOWING SELY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-2.5 KM VEERING TO WLY OR NWLY IN THE 5-7 KM LAYER WITH RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 25KTS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 09/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34638867 35818872 36438796 36438645 36078559 34908552 33938581 33528681 33718828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 20:25:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 15:25:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409132026.i8DKQgO20426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132021 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NWRN IA SWWD INTO NERN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132021Z - 132145Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH INITIATION POSSIBLE BY 21Z. CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM NEAR YKN SWWD TO NEAR BUB WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THOUGH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /EXTENDING FROM ERN SD SWWD INTO SWRN NEB/ HAVE LOCALLY REMOVED MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 150-250 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH /PER NELIGH NEB PROFILER/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 21 OR 2130Z. ..MEAD.. 09/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41279946 42159865 42759811 43859700 44039590 43449516 42429620 41889696 41039883 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 23:15:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 18:15:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409132316.i8DNGDO04648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132312 MNZ000-NDZ000-140015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MN...EXTREME ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132312Z - 140015Z ...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF MN... LARGE SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...PER RECENT RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION FROM SERN ND INTO NWRN MN. AS UPPER FLOW INCREASES ACROSS NWRN MN INTO WRN ONTARIO...EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF MN. SRN EXTENT OF THIS FORCING MAY BE ROUGHLY THE SD/ND BORDER LATITUDE WITH POSSIBLY A GAP BETWEEN CONVECTIVE REGIMES OVER CNTRL/SRN MN. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE TO UPDRAFTS DO NOT PARTICULARLY FAVOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..DARROW.. 09/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46659697 47979727 48989705 48699389 46879501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 02:02:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 21:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409140203.i8E23UO07570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140159 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0859 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NWRN IA...SCNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 816... VALID 140159Z - 140300Z CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED FROM ERN NEB...NEWD INTO ECNTRL MN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. BANDED STRUCTURE REFLECTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN INCREASING CAP AND ELEVATED STRUCTURE OF CONVECTION. INCREASING LLJ INTO SERN NEB SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 39730063 41329866 43569693 46059355 44279432 40259863 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 18:50:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 13:50:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409141851.i8EIpkd02369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141847 IAZ000-NEZ000-142015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141847Z - 142015Z SURFACED-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM E-CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS NERN NEB TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN KS. A WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE THEN EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW NEWD ACROSS E-CNTRL NEB /NEAR OMA/ INTO CNTRL IA. SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON N OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL/NERN KS TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT OWING TO SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LOCAL CAP REMOVAL. MODESTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED ON CURRENT FAIRBURY NEB PROFILER AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS /I.E. 30-35 KTS THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION /ESPECIALLY ALONG OR JUST N OF WARM FRONT/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 2000 OR 2030Z. ..MEAD.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 40529945 41069910 42129696 42709409 42599288 41899236 41369324 40259857 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 19:52:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 14:52:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409141953.i8EJrad05200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141949 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SE WY INTO WRN NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141949Z - 142145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE WY/ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS -- AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN WY/NE UT/NW CO...WHILE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY/NCNTRL CO. WITH AMPLE INSOLATION AMIDST POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF NE CO/SW NEB/NW KS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON PER 18Z RUC GUIDANCE. LATEST PLATTEVILLE CO/MEDICINE BOW WY PROFILER TIME-HEIGHT DATA FEATURES DEEPENING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES...MODERATE W/SW MID LEVEL FLOW /50 KTS/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/ROTATING STORMS...WITH ATTENDANT HAZARDS OF VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL OWING TO STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42220477 42310293 41940062 40139983 39330015 38800127 39060484 40500525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 22:17:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 17:17:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409142219.i8EMJ4d15541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142214 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819... VALID 142214Z - 150015Z STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL NE/W CENTRAL IA. THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXIT REGION A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND NEAR SURFACE DRY LINE INTRUSION. IN ADDITION...THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING UVVS ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI STATIONARY FRONT. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8C/KM IN REGION WHERE BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50-70 M2/S2. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MULTICELLULAR INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT CAN BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE BRN SHEAR PROFILE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41099734 42189722 43839322 43289292 41809290 40889520 40009735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 23:21:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 18:21:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409142322.i8ENMVd10061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142318 OKZ000-TXZ000-150115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142318Z - 150115Z THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS /AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL/ MAY SPREAD N/NE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...AND SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL ALONG/SOUTH OF RED RIVER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT NWD EXPANSION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /20-30 KTS/...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLD PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ..GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34399823 35439812 36279737 36189601 35849520 34579526 33759548 33509659 33939817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 23:47:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 18:47:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409142348.i8ENmed20974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142344 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-150115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO/SE WY INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB AND FAR NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 820... VALID 142344Z - 150115Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 820. FURTHER EAST...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND NRN KS. MCS APPEARS TO EVOLVING ACROSS NE CO/SRN NEB PANHANDLE IN MIDST OF WW 820...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING. POTENT NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET /FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-55 KTS THIS EVENING/ WILL SUPPORT CONTINUAL EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE TSTM COMPLEXES INTO CNTRL NEB AND NW/NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS /DEEP LAYER SHEAR 50 KTS OR GREATER/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN HAZARD LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVELY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO BE PROHIBITIVE FACTOR. ADDITIONALLY AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- NAMELY ACROSS EXTREME NE CO AND FAR SW NEB/FAR NW KS -- WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED AND BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE. ..GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41600526 41840284 42020042 42199746 40579723 39969757 39450047 39530292 39370517 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 00:20:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 19:20:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150021.i8F0Ldd01387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150017 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NEB...W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IA... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819... VALID 150017Z - 150215Z EXPECT WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SEE MD #2208 FOR DETAILS. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NOW EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN IA. LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 40 KT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL IA ENHANCING LIFT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MN. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES BETWEEN 30-50 KT ACROSS THE AREA SUSTAINING STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... 41079736 41459739 42179734 42699599 43279444 43909291 41589339 40339652 40029736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 01:19:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:19:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150120.i8F1K7d24021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150116 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN NEWD INTO CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 150116Z - 150415Z STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL IA NEWD THRU SRN DOOR COUNTY IN NERN WI. ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEST OVER WRN IA WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW...WITH OUTER EDGES OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /20-30 KT/ EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI. ACTIVITY IS WORKING ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN IA NEWD INTO NERN WI. LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK...MOIST TYPE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM INDICATING MORE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME THREAT THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN IA...A SMALL PART OF SERN MN AND SRN PARTS OF W CENTRAL WI NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS THE THREAT AREA AND TIME FRAME SEEM MINIMAL. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43848862 43209079 42909224 43109294 43779297 44519162 44889028 44878780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 01:58:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:58:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150200.i8F206d09348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150156 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL CO INTO PARTS OF NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150156Z - 150400Z STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL CO AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER THE FRONT RANGE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE WW 820... WHICH WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG UVVS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO. LATEST RAOB DATA ALSO SHOWS LARGE DRYING INTO THE LOWER PARTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENHANCING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 8.5C/KM AND 9C/KM WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38950470 39660318 40050089 39680051 39240098 38320269 38290447 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 09:03:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 04:03:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409150904.i8F94sd32348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150900 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-151130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150900Z - 151130Z NEARLY SOLID LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 40KT ACROSS THE MO RIVER EARLY TODAY. 40-50KT WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. TIME OF DAY AND BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT SUGGESTS A WATCH IS UNNECESSARY DESPITE STRONG FORCING TO MAINTAIN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. POTENT UPPER TROUGH WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING INTO SWRN MN. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN NEB AND SWRN IA. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...IN ADDITION TO MATURE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SCALE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS ALONG THE LINE HAVE RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT ACROSS SRN NEB OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO PERSIST ALONG SMALL SEGMENTS THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO IA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST TSTM GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40-50KT RANGE AND A WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS A MORE WIDESPREAD/HIGHER WIND THREAT DEVELOPS. ..CARBIN.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40289452 40119677 41039613 42079573 42389488 42549179 40599272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 15:50:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 10:50:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409151551.i8FFpBd20899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151547 WIZ000-MNZ000-151715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MN EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151547Z - 151715Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 1700 OR 1730Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW NE OF RWF WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED EWD TO NEAR MSP AND INTO NRN WI /N OF AUW/. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF COMPARATIVELY LESS CLOUDINESS OVER SERN MN/W-CNTRL WI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F...MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH ABSOLUTE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOW AOB 50 J/KG. CURRENT SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO FAR NWRN WI AHEAD OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND E/SE OF SURFACE LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS SOON AS 1700 OR 1730Z. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44469343 45539313 46239162 46149014 44958986 44059024 43519068 43519205 43819281 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 16:20:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 11:20:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409151621.i8FGLbd04731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151617 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL WWD ACROSS FAR SRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151617Z - 151745Z POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBAND SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 1800Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES OUTER RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN FROM 110W PIE TO 70S AQQ TO 55SW OF PFN MOVING N OR NW AT 30-40KTS. INSPECTION OF EGLIN AFB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2. EXPECT RAINBAND AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE 1800 TO 2000Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 30068823 30818815 31188693 31138513 30608399 29898397 29288439 29568578 30008680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 19:37:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 14:37:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409151938.i8FJchd16329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151934 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN AND CNTRL MO / NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151934Z - 152100Z SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 1920Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG/SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MKC SWWD TO NW OF BVO. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE PRE-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAVE ALLOWED MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER W-CNTRL MO...TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG OVER NERN OK. SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /PER AREA VWPS/PROFILERS/ SUGGEST MAINLY A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE...ROTATING STORMS EXISTS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALONG OR JUST N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK W-E ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND RESULTANT REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37089651 39249414 39919351 40059211 39559164 37329323 36729405 36349581 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 20:26:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 15:26:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409152027.i8FKRdd10724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152023 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WI INTO WRN UP OF MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 824... VALID 152023Z - 152200Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN WI INTO THE WRN UP OF MI THROUGH 22Z. AS OF 2015Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS FROM JUST SW OF IWD SWD TO W OF CWA MOVING NEWD AT 40-45 KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A N-S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT GREEN BAY VWP IS SHOWING A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OWING TO THE STRONG...AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT FAST STORM MOTIONS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EXTEND NE OF WW 824 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM OWING TO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER CAP WITH NEWD EXTENT. ..MEAD.. 09/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45739277 46649274 46588739 44348751 43808923 43508982 43589090 43849146 44819274 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 01:12:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 20:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160113.i8G1Ddd12313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160109 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-160315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 825... VALID 160109Z - 160315Z THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA. 01Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN ABOUT 90NM SOUTH OF KMOB. AN OLD FRONT EXTENDED ROUGHLY E-W FROM SCNTRL AL EWD ACROSS SRN GA TO COASTAL SC. EARLIER THIS EVENING...TSTMS DEVELOPED VCNTY THE FRONT OVER SWRN GA. THESE CELLS QUICKLY BECAME TORNADIC WHERE AIR MASS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND APPEAR TO HAVE LARGELY BEEN TIED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND HAVE WEAKENED. HOWEVER...A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARCS FROM SCNTRL AL TO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL THEN SWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. CELLS ARE MOVING 150/50 AND LATEST VWP FROM PENSACOLA SUGGESTS 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2. AS THE CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AL COASTLINE... THE TORNADO THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL AND SWRN GA. LATER THIS EVENING...IT WILL BECOME NECESSARY TO REISSUE/REORIENT TORNADO WATCH 825 THAT EXPIRES AT 0700 UTC. ..RACY.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30348824 32598822 31928400 29688395 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 03:39:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 22:39:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160340.i8G3e4d05741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160339 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160335 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-160530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 825... VALID 160335Z - 160530Z TORNADO WATCH 825 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN AL...SWRN GA AND FL PNHDL AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE NRN EDGE COULD BE SHIFTED FARTHER INTO CNTRL AL AND WCNTRL GA. THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO SHORE...0330Z POSITION 40NM SOUTH OF THE AL BORDER. OUTER SPIRAL RAINBAND THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING NWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SERN AL HAS INTENSIFIED AGAIN. USING A STORM MOTION OF 150/45...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES CALCULATED OFF THE DOTHAN VWP ARE IN EXCESS OF 530 M2/S2. STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL EXPAND NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CORRESPONDINGLY TRANSLATE NWD. ..RACY.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30298826 32588826 31948394 30618391 29578393 32908807 33098713 33148546 32978450 32348384 31958397 32638819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 08:00:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 03:00:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160801.i8G81pd28411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160757 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826... VALID 160757Z - 161000Z THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES FOR MANY MORE HOURS AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND. ONE SUCH VERY PERSISTENT FEEDER BAND...COINCIDING WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE...STRETCHED FROM NEAR MGM IN SCNTRL AL THROUGH TLH AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE ERN GULF. CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN THIS BAND WITH CELL MOTION APPROACHING 50KT. VERY INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VWP AND SOUNDING DATA WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2 NEAR THIS BAND. VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2 WHERE NOTED NEAR THE EYEWALL. THIS EXTREME KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FL PNHDL...SRN AL...AND SWRN GA INTO THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30308829 33468820 32688370 29498370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 08:06:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 03:06:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409160807.i8G87Pd30564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160803 COR FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826... VALID 160803Z - 161000Z CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR 2ND PARAGRAPH ("WERE" INSTEAD OF "WHERE"). THE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES FOR MANY MORE HOURS AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND. ONE SUCH VERY PERSISTENT FEEDER BAND...COINCIDING WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE...STRETCHED FROM NEAR MGM IN SCNTRL AL THROUGH TLH AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE ERN GULF. CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN THIS BAND WITH CELL MOTION APPROACHING 50KT. VERY INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VWP AND SOUNDING DATA WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2 NEAR THIS BAND. VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2 WERE NOTED NEAR THE EYEWALL. THIS EXTREME KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FL PNHDL...SRN AL...AND SWRN GA INTO THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30308829 33468820 32688370 29498370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 12:06:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 07:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161207.i8GC7hd17618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161203 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...827... VALID 161203Z - 161400Z CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WAS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS MONROE COUNTY ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. WIND PROFILE DATA OVER A LARGE AREA OF AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL WERE INDICATING VERY INTENSE TO EXTREME VALUES OF 0-1KM HELICITY...ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200 M2/S2. JUST ABOUT ANY CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ACQUIRE ROTATION AND COULD END UP PRODUCING A TORNADO. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN AN OUTER RAINBAND LOCATED FROM CROSS CITY, FL TO NE OF MONTGOMERY, AL. A FEW ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THIS ARC OVER FL AND GA ARE OVER 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF IVAN. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW LARGE THE STRONG WIND FIELD IS WITH THIS HURRICANE. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NEAR THE AL/GA LINE. THIS BAND...BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN AN EVEN MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND ANY CELLS WITHIN THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IVAN.... INCLUDING MOBILE, AL...APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY. SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL BE CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH 826 SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29498263 30218819 33408825 32688370 31988369 31878263 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 14:12:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 09:12:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161414.i8GEECd08356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161413 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161409 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-161515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH SRN AL....NRN THROUGH SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...827... VALID 161409Z - 161515Z TORNADO WATCHES 826 AND 827 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BY 1430Z THAT WILL COVER PARTS OF NRN THROUGH SRN AL...NRN THROUGH SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT SPREADING NWD WITH TIME AS THE CENTER OF IVAN MOVES NWD TOWARD CNTRL AL. LATEST RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAINBANDS E OF THE CENTER FROM E CNTRL THROUGH SE AL AND INTO SWRN GA. SHEAR PROFILES IN THE ERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 400-600 M2/S2...WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 30428640 31478647 32088720 34048645 34578525 34308404 33118300 31088244 29408287 30058383 29988462 29778516 30288580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 15:01:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 10:01:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161502.i8GF2kd03371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161501 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161458 SCZ000-GAZ000-161700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0958 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161458Z - 161700Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM PORTIONS OF ERN GA THROUGH SC INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LATE THIS MORNING AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN SC WWD INTO E CNTRL GA. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IS ADVECTING NWWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR REMAIN WEST OF SC. DESPITE THIS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. AS IVAN CONTINUES IN A GENERALLY NNEWD DIRECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN GA INTO PORTIONS OF SC. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 32478061 31468142 31868232 32798276 33968250 34638141 34567968 33597896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 18:20:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 13:20:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161820.i8GIKxd19977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161816 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-162015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL THROUGH GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 828...829... VALID 161816Z - 162015Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST THREAT THROUGH 20Z IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH GA. THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED JUST S OF TUSCALOOSA AL AND CONTINUES MOVING NWD. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITH RAINBANDS DEVELOPING E OF THE CENTER WITH THE MOST INTENSE BAND EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN GA. ANOTHER BAND HAS DEVELOPED FROM NRN THROUGH E CNTRL GA AND IS LIFTING NWD. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE DENSE OVERCAST ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN CONTINUES TO LIMIT HEATING. HOWEVER... THE LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF THINNER CLOUDS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SPREADING NWD INTO SWRN GA. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... 29898596 31598546 31968641 33228659 34798566 34528312 32088307 31468249 29538289 30208398 29848472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 19:34:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 14:34:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409161935.i8GJZhd26566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161931 SCZ000-GAZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830... VALID 161931Z - 162130Z STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SC...BUT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN E-W BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL SC. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AREA OF GENERAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS MANAGE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33527924 32418058 32078263 33008275 34348259 34938196 34467928 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 20:55:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 15:55:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409162056.i8GKuFd07767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162052 NCZ000-TNZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162052Z - 162215Z NEW TORNADO WATCH...OR A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH...MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF ERN TN AND WRN NC. NWRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DEVELOP INTO FAR WRN NC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG NWD INTO WRN NC AND ERN TN WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT NOW OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH AS MRX AT 2030Z. WITH DISCRETE STORMS ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN GA/NWRN SC BORDER AREA...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING NORTH OF CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES. PRIMARY NEGATIVE WILL BE PERSISTENT RAIN AND RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL SMALL TORNADO WATCH...OR A REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ..EVANS.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX... 35088581 35688508 36008391 35968292 35348236 35008326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 22:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 17:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409162243.i8GMhCd24936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162238 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...NRN/CNTRL GA...SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 828...830... VALID 162238Z - 170045Z BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES 828/830 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF ANY EXTENTIONS WILL BE NECESSARY. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NERN GA AND CNTRL SC. 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED TROPICAL STORM IVAN OVER NCNTRL AL WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED EWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO CNTRL SC. STRONGEST SPIRAL RAINBAND WAS ARCING SWD FROM JUST EAST OF KATL-KMCN. OTHER TSTMS...WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...WERE MIGRATING RAPIDLY NWWD INTO UPSTATE SC VCNTY KAND. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THESE SPIRAL RAINBANDS INTERSECT FROM 30 E KATL-KAND. FARTHER EAST OVER ERN SC...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE TIED TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS HEADING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD STRONGEST PRESSURE FALL AXIS INTO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN...THE MOST INTENSE SPIRAL RAINBANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER A SMALL ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 01Z. ETA 3-HR PRESSURE FIELDS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING IVAN TOO RAPIDLY AND WOULD ARGUE FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING OVER NRN GA...UPSTATE SC AND PERHAPS ADJOINING WRN NC/ERN TN. WILL MONITOR THE RAINBANDS THROUGH 01Z AND IF INTENSITY OR COVERAGE REMAINS THE SAME...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 09/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN... 31868493 32648506 33258585 33438656 34938630 34938256 34657889 31907951 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 03:46:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 22:46:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409170347.i8H3l0d14795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170342 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-170545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...CNTRL/UPSTATE SC...SWRN NC...EXTREME NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831... VALID 170342Z - 170545Z THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC. A LOWER THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE SWD ACROSS ERN GA INTO EXTREME NRN FL. TORNADO WATCH 831 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. RADAR PLACES CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN OVER ERN BLOUNT COUNTY AL MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED NWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A TSTM THREAT. PERSISTENT SPIRAL BAND OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD...ARCING FROM UPSTATE SC SWD TO ERN PNHDL OF FL. THE GREATEST DEGREE OF BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 831... PARTICULARLY VCNTY KAND. VWP FROM GREER SHOWS GREATER THAN 35 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. SO...EVEN THOUGH CELLS HAVE BECOME MUCH LESS DISCRETE THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING...EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES MAY STILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME NERN GA AND UPSTATE SC...PARTICULARLY AS THE WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENS FARTHER W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND S INTO NRN FL. HOWEVER...GIVEN VWP DERIVED 0-1KM SRH OF BETTER THAN 150 M2/S2...VERY BRIEF AND ISOLD TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BAND OF TSTMS ROTATES NEWD TOWARD WAYCROSS AND VIDALIA. ..RACY.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...CHS...JAX...TAE... 32848345 34918340 35498060 33368058 29948365 31588286 32848261 33098167 32188150 30338217 29808234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 05:54:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 00:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409170555.i8H5thd27553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170555 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170551 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-170715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED......WRN SC/WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831... VALID 170551Z - 170715Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN TN. VAD WIND PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER CURRENTLY SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC WHERE RAINBANDS ARE ONGOING. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT AND THIS ALONG WITH THE VEERING PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NEWD INTO LOWER INSTABILITY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING MLCAPE VALUES AS SFC TEMPS FALL WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE ..BROYLES.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP... 33528218 35318221 35818215 36148169 36168108 35688076 34538076 33508108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 13:29:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 08:29:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171331.i8HDV8d27887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171326 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-171530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171326Z - 171530Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ACROSS PARTS OF NE SC...CNTRL INTO SERN NC THROUGH S CNTRL VA. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED 14Z. THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WERE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. E OF THE CENTER...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS FROM SC THROUGH PARTS OF CNTRL NC AND INTO SW VA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS DEVELOPING FROM W CNTRL NC INTO N CNTRL SC ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE FROM THE HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. THE 12Z GREENSBORO RAOB SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG IN THIS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR TO 30 KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 40 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 35368025 36598055 37497943 37167796 34717833 33817982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 15:06:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 10:06:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171507.i8HF75d18479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171506 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171503 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-171630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NC INTO SRN VA CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 171503Z - 171630Z MUCH OF CNTRL AND PARTS OF ERN NC INTO SRN VA WILL BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK ON THE 1630Z OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... 34817979 36827971 37217744 35737668 34537867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 16:37:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 11:37:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171638.i8HGc4d08331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171633 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-171830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN THROUGH ERN VA...SRN MD AND ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171633Z - 171830Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD AND EWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF CNTRL...NRN AND ERN VA...SRN MD AND ERN NC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS BY 18Z. THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS OF ERN TN/WRN NC. IVAN HAS TAKEN ON EXTRA TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT LIFTING NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA. WHAT APPEARS TO A ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH W CNTRL NC AND SW VA. THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO INTENSIFY IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN NC INTO CNTRL AND ERN VA WHERE CAP IS VERY WEAK. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES ENEWD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS N CNTRL VA-MD WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION AS FAR N AS NRN VA AND SRN MD THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 34757724 36337741 37407775 37597946 38667826 38847690 37967594 35387621 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 17:41:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 12:41:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171741.i8HHfwd10454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171737 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-171930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...CNTRL NC THROUGH S CNTRL VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832... VALID 171737Z - 171930Z THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GREATEST THREAT FROM CNTRL NC NWD THROUGH S CNTRL VA. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES FROM SW VA THROUGH W CNTRL NC. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE LINE ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE LINE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS ALONG A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWD MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM N CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL VA AND IS COLOCATED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE LINE. STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OR INCREASE THEIR INTENSITY WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT NEXT FEW HOURS...SUSTAINING THE TORNADO THREAT. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... 33797956 35417991 37078006 37507890 37027769 35367755 34007819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 19:37:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 14:37:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171938.i8HJc5d06501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171933 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD AND EXTREME SRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171933Z - 172130Z THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EXTREME ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN MD...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN PA. THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM MD EWD INTO DE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT. AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NC AND VA WILL SPREAD NEWD...CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NWD WITH TIME. CURRENT PRESSURE FALL TENDENCIES REFLECT THESE TRENDS WITH AREA OF MAXIMUM FALLS CURRENTLY LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH CNTRL VA. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 38957656 39367794 39917764 40137636 39777580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 19:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 14:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409171957.i8HJvOd15992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171953 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-172200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH CNTRL...ERN AND NRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 833... VALID 171953Z - 172200Z THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS NERN NC INTO MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF VA THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NRN VA. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUES SPREADING NEWD WITH TIME THROUGH VA. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH AREA OF MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THROUGH WW 833 NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD ENEWD. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO SELY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...COINCIDENT WITH AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS. THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST SWD INTO ERN NC...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS VA PORTION OF WW 833 NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 38997658 37227594 35687603 34937740 37297808 38807846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 20:04:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 15:04:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172005.i8HK5bd19946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172001 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-172100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SE NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 832... VALID 172001Z - 172100Z TORNADO WATCH 832 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. HOWEVER...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MOVED INTO WW 833 BEFORE THIS EXPIRATION TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THIS LINE INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF E CNTRL THROUGH SE NC BY 2030Z. ..DIAL.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34647757 33957806 33867886 34257919 35387886 36617835 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 21:10:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 16:10:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172111.i8HLBYd19753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172107 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-172300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...FAR NWRN OK...NERN TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172107Z - 172300Z ISOLATED SVR T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN KS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL KS. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT NEITHER A WW OR A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE WARRANTED. DEEP CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINS WEAK TO NIL AT BEST AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS CINH SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS FROM 30-40 DEG F ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ..CROSBIE.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37130001 36250102 35930091 36040041 36639961 37129904 37349827 37099723 37549704 37999759 38409828 38509885 38419920 37599968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 22:22:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 17:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172224.i8HMOEd20335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172219 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN/ERN VA...DC...ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 833...834... VALID 172219Z - 180015Z THREATS FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL INCREASE FOR THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...TORNADO WATCH 833 AND 834 WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL MD...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN/ERN VA AND ERN NC FOR THE THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEFORE 00Z. SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN MOVING NWD AT AROUND 25 KTS IN A BAND ARCING FROM THE EXTREME ERN WV PNHDL SWD INTO CNTRL VA. ANOTHER BAND OF TSTMS WAS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE POTOMAC RIVER FROM NEAR STERLING SWD TO EAST OF FREDERICKSBURG AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA THROUGH 00Z. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AREA ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER EWD INTO CNTRL MD HAD WARMED TO NEAR 80F WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THUS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE TSTM BAND APPROACHING THE RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AS STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS TRANSLATE NWD FROM SERN VA. USING A STORM MOTION 185/23 KTS...THE SRH VALUES ON THE STERLING VWP WERE IN EXCESS OF 180 M2/S2 IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...BAND OF TSTMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL VA WILL MOVE INTO ERN VA...CNTRL/SRN MD AND ADJACENT CHESAPEAKE BAY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH A DECREASE IN THE DISCRETE CELLS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THAT THE TORNADO THREATS WILL DECREASE. THUS...NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACEMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. ..RACY.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH... 34987733 39737858 39707641 34967540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 23:26:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 18:26:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409172327.i8HNR8d11812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172323 NCZ000-VAZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 835... VALID 172323Z - 180000Z VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 835 ACROSS SCNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z. LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 30 SW KRIC-KGSB-30 SW OF KILM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ENEWD 25-30 KTS. WIND PROFILES FROM WILMINGTON SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW HAS VEERED AND BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT SMALL SCALE BOWS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS SEGMENTS OF THE LINE BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW. THE TORNADO THREATS HAVE SHIFTED INTO EXTREME NERN NC AND ERN VA. THE MAIN PART OF THE LINE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NEW TORNADO WATCH 836 BY 00Z. SRN PORTIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS ECNTRL NC AND THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 09/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34027811 37327794 37167774 35757747 34137769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 00:42:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 19:42:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180043.i8I0hjd04673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180039 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO...SWRN MO...NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180039Z - 180245Z CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB BY 04Z. THE AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 01Z OUTLOOK. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TOP INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH 700 DEWPTS AROUND 6 DEG C. 30 KT 700MB SPEED MAX WILL AID IN MODEST WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS OVER NWRN MO AND CENTRAL IA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER FAR SERN NEB/NERN KS AS PROFILER DATA FROM HILLSBORO KS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. ORIENTATION OF THIS SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO FAR NERN KS AND SERN NEB. ..CROSBIE.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39789345 40779381 41159520 40939626 40389660 39799687 39169670 38499597 38209475 38539340 39169314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 02:01:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 21:01:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180202.i8I22qd28992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180158 VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-180400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...MD...NERN NC...SCNTRL PA...ERN VA...EXTREME ERN WV PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836... VALID 180158Z - 180400Z ISOLD TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS THROUGH 04Z...BUT SEVERE THREATS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE NUMBER OF DISCRETE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. DIURNAL COOLING IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE BUOYANCY OBSERVED IN THE 00Z KIAD SOUNDING AND AIR MASS IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MD SHORE BY 04Z. ISOLD CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY HAS CONTRACTED TO A SMALL PART OF CNTRL/ERN MD INTO SCNTRL PA AND SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST RISK OF A TORNADO HAS SHIFTED IN AREAS NORTH/EAST OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. WAKEFIELD VWP SHOWS THAT THE FLOW HAS VEERED IN THE LOWEST GATES AND IS RESULTING IN A DEEP SLY UNIDIRECTIONAL REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...EFFECTIVELY DECREASING SRH. LINE SEGMENTS HAVE BECOME ALIGNED MORE NORMAL TO THIS MEAN WIND AND DAMAGING WIND SEEMS MORE OF A RISK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SERN VA INTO FAR ERN NC. GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE COOLING...PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE. AFTER 04Z...ANOTHER WEATHER WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED AS SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BECOME ISOLD AT BEST. ..RACY.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX... 35917687 37377719 38597699 39717815 40097812 40137605 36007540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 03:30:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 22:30:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180331.i8I3VNd23981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180327 MOZ000-KSZ000-180530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180327Z - 180530Z ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS NERN KS AND NRN MO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. PLAN VIEW OF PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT A 40 KT SWLY LLJ HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS THIS EVENING...BLOWING NORMAL TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM ERN KS TO CNTRL MO. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS FROM THE ST. JOSEPH MO AREA EWD INTO NRN MO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PARCELS FEEDING THE STORMS LIKELY ORIGINATE IN A POOL OF 2500 J/KG MUCAPE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL KS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...30 KTS OR LESS. THUS...WHILE ISOLD TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY EXHIBIT ROTATION...MOSTLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES MAY OCCUR IN ISOLD STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 40489443 39689245 38909209 38119299 38599478 39169572 40049525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 06:21:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 01:21:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180622.i8I6Mhd12437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180618 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-180815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO/FAR SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180618Z - 180815Z AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS VERY SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS NWRN MO. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NW MO NEAR THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND IS ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH THE INSTABILITY LOCATED ABOVE THE 700 MB LAYER. SFC-6 KM VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE SOME THROUGH DAYBREAK AND THIS SHOULD HELP THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS SLOWLY SSEWD. THE STORMS MAY ALSO BACKBUILD ALONG THE ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ZONE FARTHER NNW INTO IA. THE SETUP WILL THEREFORE FAVOR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND MAY YIELD EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX... 39919491 40989480 41199405 41149316 40899301 39989279 38669278 38049339 38169455 38779477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 06:42:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 01:42:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180643.i8I6hbd19666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180639 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-180845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MD/DE/NJ/SE PA/FAR SE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180639Z - 180845Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NERN US WITH RAINBANDS EXTENDING SWD FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS MD...DE AND NJ. WITHIN THE BANDS...SOME CELLULAR ACTIVITY IS PRESENT AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE AS THEY MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL VEERING. IN ADDITION SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE CREATING LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 500 METERS. THE LOW LCLS AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FAR ERN PA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY ANY ROTATING STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38417507 39157662 41237524 41427448 40937344 40287336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 09:14:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 04:14:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409180914.i8I9Evd13092@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180910 MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-181115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/SE NY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 180910Z - 181115Z THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF IVAN CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PA EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ERN NY AND WRN NJ. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE ERN PART OF THE RAIN MAINLY ACROSS SE PA AND NRN NJ. THIS AREA HAS ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT OF 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE MTNS RUN SW TO NE AND THIS ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE MTNS ARE ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS SE PA AND SE NY. ALTHOUGH DRYER AIR ON THE BACK EDGE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS ERODING THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT LATER THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 41557617 42557451 42937335 42797237 42187216 41597275 40967439 39937532 39617633 40137718 40647703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 19:18:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 14:18:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409181919.i8IJJ8d27287@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181914 AZZ000-CAZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181914Z - 182045Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER WRN AZ. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN AZ AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS AIDING INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY. WEAK CAP AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE W COAST. GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SWRN PART OF AZ WHERE CAPE IS STRONGER. GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE OVER THE NWRN PORTION WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE HIGHER. ..DIAL.. 09/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34571177 32091176 32091322 32891468 35911401 36931302 36711125 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 07:32:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 02:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409190733.i8J7X5d23493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190728 AZZ000-CAZ000-190930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190728Z - 190930Z ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SERN CA INTO WRN AZ... DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY CA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG WELL DEFINED ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE...INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DISCRETE UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DRAW. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...OR PERHAPS SOME STRONG WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD INTO WRN AZ. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32781477 34911320 34591443 33741497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 10:57:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 05:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409191058.i8JAwld05593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191054 AZZ000-191200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 837... VALID 191054Z - 191200Z ...SEVERE THREAT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WW... LEADING EDGE OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF WW AND HAS EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MCS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY LESSEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS REACHING THE SFC AS INSTABILITY IS OVERTURNED AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33951375 35521264 35161203 33491321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 00:23:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 19:23:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409200024.i8K0OTd31841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200020 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200020Z - 200215Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE A BIT NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT MAY BE SHORT IN DURATION...AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. 01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS THREAT WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY ACTIVITY OF INTEREST IS FORMING ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE MAXIMIZED...AND STRONG INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OF LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS ONGOING. FORCING FOR ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LARGE-SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE BASED AT TOP OF FAIRLY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY WITH CAPE MOSTLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS. THIS WILL TEND TO MARGINALIZE HAIL THREAT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FROM WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. GIVEN SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION SPREADS DEEPER INTO THE PLAINS AND WEAKENS IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 09/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD... 41730234 43170253 44610241 46120148 47399993 47879920 45729830 43409847 41019931 39720025 39730092 40460167 40710187 41900258 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 17:38:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 12:38:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409201739.i8KHdad12068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201735 SDZ000-NEZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD AND NWRN/NCNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201735Z - 201900Z PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL SD SWD INTO NWRN/NCNTRL NEB. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED ATTM. MESOANALYSIS AND VSBL SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD...SITUATED KBIS-KPHP-KAIA AT 17Z. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WERE SUPPORTING A BAND OF TSTMS. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL SD AND NCNTRL NEB HAD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80F AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...THOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE INHIBITING STRONG HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND AT LEAST 1000 J/KG MLCAPES...THE LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. PRIND THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. BUT...IF TSTMS INCREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED...ONE MAY BE ISSUED. ..RACY.. 09/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 41970243 42800178 44370116 45350103 45319961 44299921 42969970 41600080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 20:54:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 15:54:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409222054.i8MKsvd07787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222050 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222050Z - 222315Z STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF ECNTRL NM ACROSS THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE OK PNHDL AND SWRN KS. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEAR LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED. SHARP AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE TX PNHDL AND EXTENDS WWD INTO NERN NM. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. A DRYLINE/WINDSHIFT APPEARS TO BE MIXING EWD TOWARD ECNTRL NM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME UNSTABLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH...NOW ROTATING ACROSS CO/NRN NM...GRAZES THE REGION. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE FROM PARTS OF NM ENEWD ACROSS TX. BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INTO THE EVENING SHOULD BE WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CVS TO AMA TO GAG. CELLS TRAVERSING THIS CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR... INSTABILITY...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW HAIL EVENTS. ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO LINES ALONG AND/OR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 09/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 38039949 37309860 34750093 32590310 32950456 33270464 35040392 35740240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 16:29:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 11:29:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409231629.i8NGTad15237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231628 LAZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL - T.S. IVAN TORNADOES VALID 231628Z - 231930Z POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL WW. STRENGTHENING/EXPANDING BAND OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 16Z FROM NEAR ARA SEWD OVER ST MARY/WRN TERREBONNE PARISHES THEN SWD OVER GULF -- SHOULD SHIFT WWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND APPEARS TO REPRESENT LARGEST PROBABILITIES ON MESO-BETA SCALE. MODIFIED LIX RAOB AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO LOW-MID 80S F...IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS BETWEEN EXISTING CLOUD/PRECIP BANDS. ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR/VORTICITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH WHICH THEY INTERACT. AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA SHOW WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW -- I.E. 500 MB WINDS AROUND 10 KT -- THOUGH NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS IS LIKELY OVER COASTAL SWRN LA WHERE NO OBSERVATIONAL SAMPLING IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...EXPECT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 300 J/KG -- JUXTAPOSED WITH WEAKENING CINH AND INCREASING BUOYANCY. LCH VWP SHOWS HODOGRAPH EXPANDING WITH TIME AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDAFTERNOON AS CENTER OF IVAN PASSES S AND SW OF THAT LOCATION. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC -- FOR LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR IVAN. ..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 29749314 29939327 30419353 30709344 30889313 30899292 30829250 30469143 30069099 29579078 29139070 28889067 28759071 28739098 28809120 28979150 29499266 29649297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 17:06:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 12:06:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409231707.i8NH7Gd05056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231706 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231706 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231706Z - 231900Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN... RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS REFLECTIVITY IS INCREASING RAPIDLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...INDICATIVE OF THE IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT OCCURRING ATTM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING YET WITH THE CONVECTION...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING...GIVEN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA CURRENTLY BEING SAMPLED BY VWP DATA FROM THE FSD RADAR. LATEST WV SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR PIERRE SD AND STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN SD AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING CONTRIBUTES TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS AREA. ..TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46229426 45509540 45079564 43369409 43739228 45869284 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 17:54:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 12:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409231755.i8NHtVd30807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231754 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231754 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-232000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTION NERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND...EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231754Z - 232000Z CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL DEVELOPING N THROUGH NE OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THIS AREA. WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOME PART OF THIS REGION. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH THIN ARC OF CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 1730Z FROM JUST E OF PIR TO SPINK COUNTY SD THEN SEWD TOWARD PIPESTONE COUNTY MN. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL TO LOCATION OF OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...E OF SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS AREA NEAR MN/DAKOTAS BORDERS...AS WELL AS ABR REGION...THROUGH 19-20Z TIME FRAME AND INTO SERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS NOT WELL SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS...HOWEVER VWP DATA AND FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES 0-3 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH THIS ARC. VWP SHOWED 90-100 KT 5-8 KM AGL SPEED MAX OVER FSD DURING PAST 2 HOURS -- AT LEAST 20-30 KT MORE THAN FCST BY ETA/RUC 500 MB PROGS. THIS INDICATES EVEN STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS POSSIBLE THAN PROGGED. IN FACT...SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SUSTAIN DISTINCT UPDRAFTS FOR VERY LONG GIVEN WEAK BUOYANCY. MAIN CAVEAT IS PRESENCE OF...AT MOST...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BECAUSE OF LIMITED SFC HEATING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION OF CONVECTION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES BELOW 300 J/KG...BUT ALSO LITTLE OR NO CINH FOR SFC-BASED PARCEL BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT. THOUGH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN INTACT AND DISCRETE...ANY SUSTAINED CELL COULD ROTATE AND PRODUCE A TORNADO IN SUCH A FAVORABLY SHEARED PROFILE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44619943 45039978 45459981 45989911 46289831 46289704 45969624 44689550 43939581 44419674 44909776 44929880 44779945 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 20:27:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 15:27:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409232028.i8NKS1d06665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232026 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-232230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232026Z - 232230Z ...ISOLD TSTM WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS MN ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS NWRN WI... LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF ABERDEEN...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE TO FAR/30 W INL. AN AXIS OF SFC INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE WITH LATEST WOODLAKE MN PROFILER OBSERVING 50-60 KT AT 1KM WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH EARLIER A 56 KT GUST OCCURRED AT ANE ON THE N SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...AND WILL HAVE STRONG/GUSTY TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE. ..TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF... 45899111 46689341 47659561 48609479 48699351 48439160 47789037 46219026 45889075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 19:45:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 14:45:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409241946.i8OJk8d03011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241945 NMZ000-242215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241945Z - 242215Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN NM...GENERALLY E OF LINE FROM GDP... SRR...LVS...20 NW RTN. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ROTATE FOR SHORT PERIOD BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE/SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS LOW AND QUITE CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES. PRIND WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB OVER MOUNTAINS ALONG W PERIPHERY OF DISCUSSION AREA. AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PECOS VALLEY AND HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOW TO HEAT DIURNALLY BECAUSE OF LOW CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ATTM. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS REGION FROM ABOUT 50 MILES E OF AFOREMENTIONED LINE EWD TO TX BORDER...AFTER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF INSOLATION/MIXING. WITH SUCH MOISTURE UNDERLYING 7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 800 J/KG N OF I-40 NERN NM TO AROUND 1700 J/KG E OF GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEAR APPEARS WEAK OVERALL BASED ON PROFILER DATA. HOWEVER...RUC FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT STRONGLY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS -- TO SE OR S AT 10-20 KT -- YIELD MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SRH FOR SUPERCELLS EXPECIALLY S OF I-40. IF REALIZED ON STORM SCALE THIS COULD ENHANCE HAIL CAPACITY OF UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AT SFC. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUST STRENGTH IN DOWNDRAFTS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32050470 32580499 32950530 32960551 33140551 33500548 33890543 34400519 34950510 35160524 35490537 35870540 36200506 36490487 36860493 36970466 36980407 36950354 36880328 36520310 35590318 33790356 32110339 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 18:12:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 13:12:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409251812.i8PICed26997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251811 NMZ000-AZZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...SMALL PART OF SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251811Z - 252045Z TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS AREA FROM SRN-MOST APACHE COUNTY AZ NEWD TOWARD CIBOLA COUNTY NM...AND SEWD TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION BETWEEN VALENCIA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES NM. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT WW. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM AND OVER WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ NEAR NM BORDER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...ELEVATION DEPENDENT. AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG INSOLATION COMBINES WITH THAT MOISTURE...BENEATH NEARLY 8-8.5 DEG C/KM LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH FLOW GENERALLY AOB 15 KT THROUGH MOST OF SFC-400 MB LAYER...BASED ON TUS/HDX VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...40-60 KT ANVIL LEVEL FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTIONS IN SOME LOCALES SHOULD AID WITH STORM-SCALE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. EXTREMELY DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SUCH A WEAK AMBIENT FLOW REGIME...AND BRIEF/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MIGHT OCCUR WITH A FEW TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ... 31760817 32590869 33590922 33820965 34051004 34161014 34311012 34371001 35210806 35070741 34730664 34340641 31790673 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 18:44:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 13:44:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409251844.i8PIiid06661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251843 FLZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL -- TC TORNADOES VALID 251843Z - 252115Z SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN FL...SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND FROM COAST AS FAVORABLY SHEARED SECTOR OF HURRICANE JEANNE IMPINGES ON AREA. WW IS ANTICIPATED. REGIONAL VWP INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND TENDENCY FOR ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH APCH OF JEANNE. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME OPTIMIZED FOR SUPERCELLS OVER MIDDLE-OUTER PORTION OF CIRCULATION...NNW-NE OF CENTER. IN THAT SECTOR LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN 250-450 J/KG RANGE...AND SBCAPES 200-800 J/KG. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WITH SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS SUCH AS THOSE EVIDENT ATTM WELL OFFSHORE DAB-MLB CORRIDOR...AS THAT ACTIVITY PIVOTS LANDWARD WITH INCREASING FREQUENCY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE FARTHER N AS STABLE LAYER ALOFT -- EVIDENT IN 18Z JAX RAOB -- LIMITS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND AS SHEAR WEAKENS. REF NHC FCSTS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS...AS WELL AS TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS HURRICANE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... 27358023 27468086 27788130 28268162 29118183 29688169 30168135 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 00:48:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 19:48:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409260049.i8Q0nFd24971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260048 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260048 FLZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE THROUGH SE FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 838... VALID 260048Z - 260245Z THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS JEANNE NEARS THE COAST. BEST THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BE OVER E CNTRL FL FROM NEAR FORT PIERCE NWD TO DAYTONA BEACH. CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY SWWD NEAR 50 KT OVER MUCH OF ERN FL. BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM MOTIONS AND VWP DATA FROM MELBOURNE...0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 48 KT. HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDING FROM MIAMI AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGESTS THE BUOYANCY IS VERY WEAK RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS JEANNE MOVES INLAND. ..DIAL.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26487980 26388124 27478155 29708205 29458096 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 15:14:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 10:14:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409261514.i8QFEMd30281@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261513 FLZ000-GAZ000-261715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN FL...SERN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 840... VALID 261513Z - 261715Z AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AROUND PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MORE BUOYANT AND SOME OF THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO NERN PORTION OF JEANNE. THEREFORE EXPECT OVERALL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE. THIS INCLUDES AIR MASS NOW OVER SERN GA...WHERE MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING ELY/DECREASING NLY FLOW COMPONENT...AND WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. IN NEAR TERM AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED RISK IS EVIDENT -- ACROSS PORTIONS VOLUSIA/FLAGLER/ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z...SPREADING OVER CLAY/PUTNAM/DUVAL/ALACHUA/UNION/BRADFORD/ BAKER COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z AND BEYOND. AS OF 15Z CENTER OF JEANNE IS OVER POLK COUNTY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM THERE ENEWD OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO POSITION APPROXIMATELY 30 NM N OF BUOY 41010 IN ATLANTIC. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO SHIFT NWWD IN STEP WITH CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. DRYING EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY/SATELLITE LOOPS AND PERIPHERAL 12Z RAOBS IS EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO MORE OF ERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION...AIDING IN DIURNAL HEATING. TROUGH THEN MAY BECOME WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND IN ANY EVENT SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL BOTH 1. WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING SEWD FROM DAB AND 2. WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS ON EITHER SIDE OF BAND MAY CROSS IT. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON JEANNE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 27638019 27648262 31278310 31278060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 19:12:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 14:12:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409261912.i8QJCTd08059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261911 FLZ000-GAZ000-SCZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN FL AND SRN GA...EXTREME SRN SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 840... VALID 261911Z - 262115Z TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAXIMIZED ALONG NE COAST OF FL -- ROUGHLY FROM FLAGLER COUNTY THRU JAX AREA...AND SHOULD SHIFT INLAND TOWARD N-CENTRAL PENINSULA AND SERN GA DURING REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING. POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED ST JOHNS COUNTY FL PAST HALF HOUR. ALSO...SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON N OF PRESENT WW...ACROSS PORTIONS SERN/S-CENTRAL GA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN SC. WW MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED NWD AS REPLACEMENT BEFORE SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION OF CURRENT WW 840. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PREVIOUS TROUGH EXTENDING ENEWD FROM CYCLONE CENTER PAST CAPE CANAVERAL IS WEAKENING...AND SO IS ASSOCIATED STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE AS FLOW TO ITS N VEERS SLIGHTLY. HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NE FL COAST. VWP AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH 300-400 J/KG WITHIN 50-150 NM RADIUS FROM CENTER OVER NE QUADRANT...DIMINISHING INWARD AND OUTWARD FROM THERE. BUOYANCY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES 200-800 J/KG -- BASED ON OBSERVED AND MODIFIED 18Z JAX RAOB. SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED IN OUTER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM ST JOHNS COUNTY SEWD OVER ATLANTIC. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW -- ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC -- TO VEER GRADUALLY FROM NE TO E ACROSS SRN GA AND EXTREME SRN SC...IN RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH NWWD MOVEMENT OF JEANNE. CONFLUENCE LINE AND WEAK TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE NRN PORTION GA COAST AND SRN SC COAST MAY MOVE INLAND AS WELL...PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS IN NRN PERIPHERY OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVELOPE. REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON JEANNE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...FFC... 27638019 27648262 31278310 31278060 31288309 32008254 32308230 32598157 32558047 32568008 32318046 31878071 31288060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 23:17:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 18:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409262318.i8QNIId23315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262316 GAZ000-FLZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL THROUGH SE GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841... VALID 262316Z - 270115Z BEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 02Z IS EXPECTED FROM NERN FL NEAR THE JACKSONVILLE AREA NWD INTO PART OF SERN GA. EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NWRN FL PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NNWWD DIRECTION. PERSISTENT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ADVECTING ONSHORE ACROSS NE FL AND INTO SE GA CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE WWD MOVING RAINBANDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM ARE COLOCATED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. CURRENT RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG VELOCITY COUPLETS WITHIN THE MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING WWD INTO THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THESE OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS. BEST THREAT AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD INTO SE GA WITH TIME. ..DIAL.. 09/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29308061 29888137 30378270 31728195 30748057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 01:54:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 20:54:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409270154.i8R1sgd11301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270153 SCZ000-270400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2265 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270153Z - 270400Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/COASTAL SC. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS OVER NWRN FL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A NNWWD-NWD MOTION TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OFFSHORE FROM SC SWWD WHERE IT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SERN GA AND NERN FL. E OF THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD ONTO THE SC COAST AS JEANNE CONTINUES NWD. DESTABILIZATION INLAND WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCRETE CONVECTION OVER COASTAL SC WITH SOME ROTATION OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE REGIME ONSHORE. AS THE COASTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND TONIGHT... STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ONSHORE. STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..DIAL.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33167933 32688012 32168094 32958130 33597943 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 15:20:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:20:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409271521.i8RFLod17550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271427 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271427 SCZ000-GAZ000-271630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271427Z - 271630Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS MINI-SUPERCELLS TRACK NWWD ACROSS ERN GA AND PARTS OF SC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN GA. NARROW RAINBANDS EXTEND SEWD AROUND THE NRN PART OF JEANNES CIRCULATION. SEVERAL MINI-SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ACROSS NRN AND ERN SC WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THE SHEAR BECOMES EVEN STRONGER FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN GA AND THIS WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT TRACK NWWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST TONGUE ACROSS SRN SC AND ERN GA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS MOIST TONGUE WILL MOVE NWD INTO NC ALLOWING LCL HEIGHTS TO DROP. THIS COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE STRONG WIND PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 30778160 31618206 32098267 32368326 32888341 34098250 34528101 34337942 33687856 33087912 32438039 31568114 30958126  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 19:23:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 14:23:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409271924.i8RJOsd24956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271924 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271924 NCZ000-SCZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 843... VALID 271924Z - 272100Z THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS RAINBANDS MOVE NNWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WW WILL BE REPLACED WITHIN THE HOUR AND BE ADJUSTED NORTH INTO NC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE IS CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL GA WITH RAINBANDS ORIENTED SSE TO NNW OUT TO ABOUT 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AT THE SFC...THE MOIST TONGUE IS EXPANDING ACROSS SC AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S F DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. WITH THE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND WARMING TEMPS...MLCAPE VALUES NOW RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN SC AND SRN NC. IN ADDITION...THE BACKED SFC FLOW IS RESULTING IN STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FROM TORNADOES. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. ..BROYLES.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32868110 33578146 34098151 35687900 35247791 34477754 32877994 32528051 32618080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 22:04:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 17:04:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409272206.i8RM6Jd14054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272205 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...AND THE MTNS OF WRN SC/WRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 272205Z - 280000Z LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5"/HR LASTING FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS FAR NERN GA NEWD ACROSS THE MTNS OF WRN SC/SWRN NC. AT 2145Z...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE JEANNE WERE PASSING JUST EAST OF MACON GA. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE SEPARATING MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE SERN SEABOARD /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ FROM CONTINENTAL AIR AND SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED ACROSS NERN GA/SWRN SC WILL SHIFT NEWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG A SW-NE AXIS ACROSS WRN SC/WRN NC INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...VERY STRONG ELY FLOW BETWEEN 1-3KM PER GREER VAD WIND PROFILE /40-45KT/ COMBINED WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2" WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MTNS RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT UNTIL SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES PAST THE AREA. ..BANACOS.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34458215 34048325 34248356 34688369 35138354 35818249 36098194 36228151 36048107 35438100 35078123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 22:30:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 17:30:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409272232.i8RMWAd26069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272231 NCZ000-SCZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SC THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 844... VALID 272231Z - 280030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HIGHEST THREAT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL SC NWD THROUGH CNTRL NC. EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS OVER CNTRL GA. A NEAR STATIONARY COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL SC NEAR COLUMBIA TO JUST E OF RALEIGH IN NC. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR E OF COASTAL FRONT. OUTER RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NWWD THROUGH THE ERN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS ANYWHERE IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE AS STORMS CROSS AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LIFT ARE LOCALLY ENHANCED. ..DIAL.. 09/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 34647746 33777891 32668033 33258096 34248176 35627999 35657816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 06:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 01:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409280700.i8S70Jd25983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280659 NCZ000-280900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845... VALID 280659Z - 280900Z ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENT WW...WHICH RUNS TIL 08Z...APPEARS TO COVER MUCH OF PRIMARY THREAT...AND MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF JEANNE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF AUGUSTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. 40 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL JET EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER NOW EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE SURFACE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND SHEAR PROFILES STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN NARROW PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING IN ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ROTATE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 12-15Z. INDIVIDUAL CELLS NEAR FAYETTEVILLE WILL DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE RALEIGH AREA THROUGH 08-09Z...AND APPEAR PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. ..KERR.. 09/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35227937 35687974 36077937 36167876 35917794 35397783 35047782 34787817 34977906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 12:55:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 07:55:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200409281256.i8SCujd13623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281256 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-281500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC/SE VA/SRN DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281256Z - 281500Z RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS NOW NORTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE NC...AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...HAS SHIFTED WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. UNSTABLE TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES...HAS BECOME CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...FROM NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. AS THIS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASING SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN MORE VIGOROUS CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS BAND LIKELY WILL SHIFT OFF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. ..KERR.. 09/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX... 35077628 36117628 37287626 38007648 38827583 38937522 38917487 WWWW