[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241938 
TXZ000-242115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241938Z - 242115Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED
TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.

SUBTROPICAL FLOW OF MID/HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEWD INTO
NRN TX. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED WITHIN THIS
FLOW AND MAY BE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX.
WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE BIG BEND NEWD INTO NRN TX AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE
LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS IN
THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH 40 KT SWLY WINDS ARE LOCATED AROUND 20K FEET...WINDS
BELOW THIS LEVEL ARE WEAK AND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30
KT. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER
UPDRAFTS...THOUGH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INDICATES THE HAIL THREAT IS LOW. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND STRONGER HIGH LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS..WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL THREATS.

..IMY.. 10/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

29310080 31249980 32149842 32039742 31319647 29459853
28440025 

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