[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210614 
ALZ000-MSZ000-210715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN MS INTO WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210614Z - 210715Z

A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE OVERALL THREAT EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER 10Z. 

AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN MS INTO WRN AL WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.  THIS LIFT IS
SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN/ERN MS INTO FAR WRN AL. 
WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 15-20 KT BENEATH NWLY 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10 KFT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

03Z RUC SUGGESTED WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BY 12Z
WEAKENING WAA AND THUS DIMINISHING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 10/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

34208997 34568942 34348767 33618683 32588655 31498715
31338792 31588895 32868968 

WWWW