[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190817 
NVZ000-CAZ000-191415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT IN THE MTNS OF NRN CA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 190817Z - 191415Z

HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 12Z IN THE MT. SHASTA REGION AND BY
15Z IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6 KFT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
BEGINNING AROUND 17Z. SNOWFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0730Z INDICATES IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
JUST OFF THE CA COAST. RAPID ENHANCEMENT OF COMMA TAIL/WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER COASTAL NRN CA AT THE PRESENT TIME SUGGESTS STRONG
MID-LEVEL UVV AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
NRN CA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.

WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH SLY 1KM
WINDS OF 60KT PER EUREKA VAD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NRN/NERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATER
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION BAND/HVY SNOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD AT
25-30KT INTO THE MT SHASTA AREA BY 12Z. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 6 KFT...HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF INITIAL
PRECIP BAND WILL COMMENCE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...LOWERING OF SNOW
LEVELS...AND HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 17Z OR SO. INITIAL
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD REACH THE NRN SIERRAS BY 15Z.
COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.23IN/HR...WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOCAL 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY IN
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS AROUND MT. SHASTA AND IN THE NRN
SIERRAS.

..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA...

38842007 38952050 39652103 40322149 40882174 41052194
40992221 40882259 40842287 41232298 41592293 41842269
41922214 41882161 41672108 41222073 40362027 39641991
39131983 39021980 

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