[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190333 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...PARTS OF NW
AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...861...862...

VALID 190333Z - 190530Z

WWS 860/861/862 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 03Z.

VERY SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...IN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED
ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR IN CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE ENHANCED NEXT FEW HOURS BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK
MIGRATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  A GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY AND MERGER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY/SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z.  ALONG WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS COULD
BECOME INCREASING THREAT WITH ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG
FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

..KERR.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34289195 35399108 36168975 36398797 36738667 36808545
36398420 35888436 35438496 34688721 34158824 33669017
33759078 

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