[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182305 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NE AR...WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...859...

VALID 182305Z - 190100Z

RISK OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  BEYOND 02-03Z...RISK
OF LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF ST.
LOUIS MO...ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CARBONDALE IL/EVANSVILLE IN/LOUISVILLE KY AREAS.  STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION FIELD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING ALONG FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG CONFLUENT BAND TRAILING SOUTH OF LOW INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

RISK OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT AROUND
CARBONDALE...AS WELL AS WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MO
AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.  BY 01-02Z...AS WARM SECTOR BEGINS
TO COOL...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.  LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES
PRIMARILY BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION.

..KERR.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38919022 39328949 39098800 38888731 38968624 39118517
38288412 37688432 37458554 37418721 37378815 37618907
37978992 38339034 

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