[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181244 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...AR/SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY TO NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181244Z - 181345Z

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO THIS
MORNING.  AREA TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.

UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER AR/SRN MO
AS THE SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD...AND LIFT WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO AR ATTM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.  ONGOING ACTIVITY IS
ORIENTED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG A 50 KT SWLY LLJ WHICH EXTENDED
FROM ERN OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL SURFACE
INVERSION /LESS THAN 1 KM IN DEPTH/ WHICH IS LIKELY INHIBITING THE
STORMS FROM REALIZING THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/TORNADO POTENTIAL
ATTM.  WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE.  A FEW STORMS HAVE THUS FAR SHOWN LITTLE STORM
ROTATION...BUT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE THIS MORNING.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

36739192 37338977 37228792 35298861 34058957 33439146
33409313 33829385 34499392 35669276 

WWWW