From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 18:26:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 13:26:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410021827.i92IRZt16917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021826 VAZ000-NCZ000-022030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN VA THROUGH N CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021826Z - 022030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND SRN VA INTO CNTRL NC THIS AFTERNOON. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN VA THROUGH CNTRL NC...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE LEADING EDGE DEMARCATED BY A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS W VA INTO WRN NC. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN VA AND NC WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKLY CAPPED. MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 10/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36127718 35647869 36378014 37347890 38327765 37937697 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 19:49:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 14:49:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410021950.i92Jott14608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021949 PAZ000-022145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021949Z - 022145Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL PA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH WRN PA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF CIRRUS PLUME. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S OVER PARTS OF CNTRL PA. SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THEY MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PA. WSWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY TOO MARGINAL RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS. ..DIAL.. 10/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP... 41167665 39917747 39907869 40747869 41477708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 20:54:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 15:54:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410022056.i92KuQt04849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022055 NYZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022055Z - 022300Z THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD TOWARD CNTRL NY NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NY AT AROUND 30 TO 35 KT. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AOB 300 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. ..DIAL.. 10/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42547698 44677507 44347394 42357514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 03:40:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 22:40:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410040341.i943fjt24471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040340 TXZ000-NMZ000-040645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 040340Z - 040645Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL AND TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACTS ON RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THESE AREAS. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A WATCH IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. VERY WIDELY SPACED AND OCCASIONALLY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS LASTED THROUGH THE EVENING FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE TX PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NM AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SERN NM WAS VERY MOIST WITH MAF EVENING RAOB SAMPLING PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES. NEAR SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THIS AREA WAS RELATIVELY STABLE BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP THE STABLE LAYER...COUPLED WITH DECREASING STATIC STABILITY WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE... SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC/ETA MODELS AND 21Z SREFS WHICH ALL DEPICT A STRONG INCREASE IN UVVS AND CONVECTIVE QPF FROM ERN NM ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 09Z. FDX RADAR LOOPS WAS DEPICTING A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SWD BETWEEN CVS AND LBB. IN ADDITION...TSTMS WERE PERSISTING AND TRAINING ALONG THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...OVER NRN LINCOLN COUNTY NM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS GREATER MOISTURE INFLOW IS ENCOUNTERED ON THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW CELLS POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32890035 32360165 32070283 32070385 32500500 33410571 34390527 34410325 34740188 34610065 33840005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 12:31:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 07:31:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410041233.i94CXNt07485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041231 TXZ000-NMZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041231Z - 041300Z ...ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT NO WW ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES EWD ACROSS TX. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING IMPULSES. MAF 12Z SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...ALTHOUGH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 MB RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG DUE TO STEEP MID/UPPER LAPSE RATES. THESE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30760178 30920346 31880518 32750487 33180382 33180112 31809995 30690080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 15:14:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 10:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410041515.i94FFot30000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041514 TXZ000-041715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041514Z - 041715Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR LONGVIEW WWD TO NEAR WACO ARE MOVING SSEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED AS ELEVATED STORMS IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS ACROSS E CNTRL AND SE TX. THE WEAKENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST AS A STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CAP IS WEAK...AND THE SWD MOMENTUM ENHANCED BY THE COLD POOL MAY SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31709717 31719600 31879425 30679375 30109666 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 18:23:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 13:23:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410041824.i94IOgt06432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041823 LAZ000-TXZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041823Z - 042030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NW LA NEAR NATCHITOCHES SWWD INTO SERN TX NEAR HUNTSVILLE. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED...FORWARD PROPAGATION ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE AND 20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD SEWD PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AND ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE SWD AND RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR HAVE BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30709579 31159439 31589282 29939252 29769406 29239524 29819616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 21:43:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 16:43:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410042144.i94Likt30121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042143 TXZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 042143Z - 050045Z ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A REPEAT SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY AS SECOND MCS IN A DAY MOVES ACROSS SAME AREAS. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF SWRN LA MCS WAS EVIDENT IN WIND AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LONG-LIVED MCS WAS MOVING EAST INTO BURNET... LAMPASAS...CORYELL...AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN CNTRL TX. IT APPEARS THAT A CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES IN A N-S LINE. FURTHERMORE... ISOLD CELLS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN TX IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND MCS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MCS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THIS. HOWEVER...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TEMPS AND NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FUEL ADVANCING CONVECTION WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A FEW CELLS...OR CELL MERGERS...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND REPEAT HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG A NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW...WILL ENHANCE FLOODING POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29609456 29299617 29889787 30629886 31189823 31409800 29979407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 22:15:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 17:15:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410042216.i94MGYt13920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042215 TXZ000-NMZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND PARTS OF WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042215Z - 050045Z PARTS OF SERN NM AND WEST TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE INITIATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN EDDY AND WRN LEA COUNTIES IN SERN NM. THIS REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO SERN NM HAS ENHANCED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST AIRMASS AND HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH LATEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNFAVORABLE...FOCUS FOR ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR INVOF TERRAIN FEATURES. IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45KT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH STORM COVERAGE STILL UNCERTAIN...A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT. ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31180264 31460479 32280529 33180552 33520513 33590425 33320282 32620185 31650180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 07:56:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 02:56:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410050758.i957wLt03811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050757 NMZ000-050900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050757Z - 050900Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT LEAST 10/11Z...BUT THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ABQ EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND PROFILER NEAR CVS SHOWS ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WHILE ABQ VAD SHOWS WINDS VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM. THESE WIND PROFILES INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ROTATE. INTENSE STORM 40 NNE 4CR IS MOVING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN DEEPER ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE STORM ROTATION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL...POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZED...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. ..IMY.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 34810560 35410511 35220314 33930305 33990452 34180560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 10:53:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 05:53:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410051054.i95Asft06849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051053 NMZ000-051200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051053Z - 051200Z A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH THE ISOLATED THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SERN UT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE SSEWD INTO AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...GENERALLY FROM WEST OF CVS SWWD INTO NEAR ALM. ..IMY.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34500467 34570337 33830315 32090499 32280730 33930647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 15:20:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 10:20:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410051521.i95FLnt31231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051520 TXZ000-NMZ000-051715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/PARTS OF W TEXAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 051520Z - 051715Z SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS... BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH STRONGEST DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD NOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MUCH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURVES SOUTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BASED IN STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THUS...WHILE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY CLUSTER NOW APPROACHING LUBBOCK MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF ROSWELL. THIS IS WHERE STRONGER FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING/PERSISTENT CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. ..KERR.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35950558 35840445 35370315 34380168 33210152 32820304 33270416 33500479 33660539 34300623 34740621 35630647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 19:48:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 14:48:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410051949.i95JnRt28090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051948 TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850... VALID 051948Z - 052145Z CONTINUE WW. 40-45 KT 500 MB JET STREAK HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CYCLONIC ARC FROM SOUTHWEST COLORADO INTO THE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS IS WHERE STRONGER HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY...NOW SOUTH OF HOBBS AND ROSWELL...CURVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE...WHERE ENHANCED LIFT IS SUPPORTING MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER EASTERN VALENCIA COUNTY...AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITH ACTIVITY NOW INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...AS IT APPROACHES SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TORRANCE COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP EASTWARD...ABOVE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO NORTH OF FRONT. ..KERR.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT... 34900738 35370728 36000736 36620749 37050780 37560828 37810750 37410663 35730601 34730584 34160583 33630516 33130406 32480322 31920329 32150453 32160519 32300557 32900641 32780718 33340797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 22:14:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 17:14:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410052216.i95MGFt11182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052215 TXZ000-NMZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851... VALID 052215Z - 052345Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF DONNA ANA AND OTERO COUNTIES OF SRN NM...AS WELL AS EL PASO...HUDSPETH...AND CULBERSON COUNTIES IN FAR WEST TX. STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MODEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ATOP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND SERN PORTIONS OF NM LAST FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING INVOF SURFACE LOW NEARING ELP AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG THE SRN NM WEST TX BORDER AREA THROUGH 00Z/6PM MDT. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED BY 30-40KT DIFFLUENT WLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS ON THE SRN LINCOLN/SWRN CHAVES COUNTY LINE IN NM APPEAR TO BE ANCHORING ON THE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL CELLS CROSS THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING WHERE GREATER MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. ..CARBIN.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31750695 33480662 32730299 30980337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 23:14:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 18:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410052316.i95NG4t02561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052314 TXZ000-NMZ000-060045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850... VALID 052314Z - 060045Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SERN NM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL TRACK ESEWD ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL HELICITY COINCIDE WITH LOW LFC AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE CELLS OVER LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE CONTINUING TO TAP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ESEWD INTO THE HOBBS...WINK...MIDLAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 31050211 31000482 33430482 33480211 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 01:44:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 20:44:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410060146.i961kFt29143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060145 TXZ000-NMZ000-060345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 852... VALID 060145Z - 060345Z A NUMBER OF INTENSE TSTM CELLS CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY EWD ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 852 AT THIS HOUR. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...MESOSCALE FORCING...AND STRONG SHEAR ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE WATCH BOX SHOULD BE AN AREA REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SMALL MCS BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND MORE STABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT AFTER ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 10/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30610228 30470565 33160637 33590290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 03:31:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 22:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410060333.i963XQt08481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060332 TXZ000-NMZ000-060530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 852... VALID 060332Z - 060530Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX WITHIN THE HOUR. MATURE LINEAR MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. GIVEN STRONG FORCING FROM MID LEVEL IMPULSE...40KT WIND MAX MOVING ACROSS LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW...AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE...A MARGINAL WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST EWD/SEWD INTO WEST TX OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY TX AND IT APPEARS THAT UNTAPPED UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THIS AREA WAS NOW COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...AN NEW WATCH IS PROBABLY NEEDED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER THIS CONTINUING ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 10/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30650229 30510566 32070617 32110483 33630375 33580276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 06:23:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 01:23:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410060624.i966OWt07054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060623 TXZ000-060800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853... VALID 060623Z - 060800Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW 853...BUT OVERALL WEAKENING OF STORMS IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WW. WEAKENING BOW ECHO AT 0615Z EXTENDED FROM 40 SE LBB TO NEAR BGS TO 20 S MAF. LINE IS ONLY MOVING EWD AT 25 KT AND INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...SO THE WIND THREAT WITH LINE APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR STORMS EXTEND FROM 20 SSE OF INK TO 50 NW MRF AND ARE LOCATED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY REMAIN IN THE BIG BEND AREA AFTER 08Z...THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED. THEREFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS UNLIKELY AFTER WW 853 EXPIRES AT 0800Z. ..IMY.. 10/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...EPZ... 31520499 31630362 32050262 32770190 33380182 33070017 30200298 30180614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 00:23:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 19:23:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410070024.i970OOt21928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070023 TXZ000-NMZ000-070130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR SRN NM INTO SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070023Z - 070130Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. SMALL AREAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT AREA WILL PRECLUDE A WW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION NNWWD INTO SERN NM. REGIONAL RADARS/ LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN/SERN NM SWD INTO MEXICO AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35-55 KT. ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DECREASING AFTER 02Z. ..PETERS.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... 31520623 32360549 32470414 30840373 30170387 30150468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 07:02:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 02:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410070704.i97746t08836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070703 TXZ000-NMZ000-070800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070703Z - 070800Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...THOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NM AIDED LIFTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR WRN TX. A COLD POOL DEVELOPED WITH THESE STORMS...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG/20-30 KT/...EWD MOTION OF SYSTEM AT 40 KT SUGGESTS THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT EXISTS. ALSO...PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE LINE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NM LIFTS NEWD TOWARD SERN CO...THE 850MB FLOW ACROSS SWRN TX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND VEER. THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING SUGGESTS THE WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD. ..IMY.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 31280357 32000354 32520242 32450205 31200177 30520292 30670414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 12:14:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 07:14:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410071215.i97CFrt23383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071214 OKZ000-TXZ000-071445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 071214Z - 071445Z RAINFALL RATES AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH 15Z...AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. AT 1200Z....A SQUALL LINE STRETCHED ACROSS WRN TX FROM 60 SW CDS TO NEAR ABI TO SE OF SJT. AN APPARENT MCV WAS LOCATED AT THE NORTH END OF THE LINE AND WAS MOVING NEWD AT 30 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION/SPEED OF THE MCV...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SWRN OK NEAR LTS BY 14Z AND INTO CADDO COUNTY OK BY 16Z. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD AND STORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE IN AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCV. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY DRIFT SLOWLY NWD... STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCV. THE DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...7.5C/KM ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...RESULTING IN MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...AND SINCE THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SOME RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 5 INCHES. ..IMY.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 35969818 35669872 35279918 34669984 34309926 34489877 35389766 35749760 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 20:09:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 15:09:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410072010.i97KAat11387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072009 OKZ000-TXZ000-072215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072009Z - 072215Z ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS... BUT NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS 40 KT 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/EAST OF AMARILLO. PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY MAY BE SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET...WHICH MAY SUPPORT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AROUND 22Z. AS UPDRAFTS INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...AND LIKELY TO WEAKEN...BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW CELLS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 08/00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING. ..KERR.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35470140 35980164 36220081 35979966 34549945 33939982 33590065 34160126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 18:02:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 13:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410091803.i99I3gt26824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091802 TXZ000-092030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091802Z - 092030Z THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE LUBBOCK AREA...BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. 30+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK HAS GRADUALLY ROTATED FROM NORTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF PLAINVIEW. SOUTH/SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA APPEARS LIKELY BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOLLOWING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY APPROACH 70F...SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -16C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS...BUT PEAK SURFACE GUSTS IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 10/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... 34430234 34590196 34090141 33750103 33110088 32750148 32780211 33320251 34020249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 10:29:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 05:29:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410101030.i9AAUmt03716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101029 MSZ000-LAZ000-101200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101029Z - 101200Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. 10Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF T.S. MATTHEW CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NRN GULF OF MEXICO SW OF HUM. CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS N OF CIRCULATION FROM THE COAST NWD TOWARD BTR SUGGESTS A CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER FAR SERN LA HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY WITH SUSTAINED 20-25KT ESELY FLOW ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS ONSHORE. MODIFICATION OF PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MOIST AIR MASS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF CIN. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS SAMPLED BY CURRENT LIX VWP /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2/...POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE SURFACE-BASED STORMS. ..MEAD.. 10/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX... 29599106 30819110 30878989 30238916 29108937 29019081 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 19:56:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 14:56:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410111957.i9BJvMt29136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111956 TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM / FAR W TX... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111956Z - 112130Z THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED SUGGESTS THAT WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM. LIMITED HEATING OF MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 50S DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WITH ML CAPE NOW NEAR 500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MORNING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB INDICATED STEEP /7.9 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND FAVORABLY VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST WSM /WHITE SANDS NM/ PROFILER CONFIRMS THIS...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 50 KT FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS. DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. AN ORGANIZED STORM HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING E ACROSS OTERO COUNTY NM...BUT DESPITE SOME WEAK ROTATION VIL HAS REMAINED BELOW 40 WITH THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO LIMIT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INCH TO GOLF BALL SIZE. ..GOSS.. 10/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... 31360898 32240938 33780885 34030636 33520406 32720288 31810225 31530347 30320356 29690452 30180471 30660500 31740638 31780821 31340819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 17:00:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 12:00:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410131701.i9DH16t04778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131700 NCZ000-131830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131700Z - 131830Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL NATURE OF THREAT. LATEST DATA INDICATES MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NC ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...BUT LATEST MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ VWP -- SAMPLING MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW -- SHOWS A MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 15 KT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THEREFORE...WITH ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF ERN NC AS PER RECENTLY-ISSUED SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH LIMITED THREAT EXISTS...AREA AFFECTED REMAINS QUITE SMALL -- GENERALLY WITHIN COASTAL NC COUNTIES EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE ALBEMARLE TO THE PAMLICO SOUNDS. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED EWD SHIFT IN MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ZONE SUGGESTS THAT THREAT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE SUCH THAT TORNADO WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 10/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 35907687 36317604 36247575 35257553 34687653 34687712 34847751 35647708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 23:12:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 18:12:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410132312.i9DNCqt10081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132311 NCZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132311Z - 140115Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A SFC LOW. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS ERN NC WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 34847637 34757661 34917822 35327944 35707961 36257919 36167782 35897682 35537626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 04:00:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 23:00:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410140400.i9E40xt23335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140400 TXZ000-140600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140400Z - 140600Z SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN TX. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE A LINE OF CELLS IS DEVELOPING. THE FRONT IS CUTTING UNDERNEATH THE STORMS AND THEY ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE. OTHER SFC-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR SAN ANTONIO ON THE EAST EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PASSING EWD TROUGH THE BASE OF A PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION...LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. AS UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE DRAWN NWWD INTO SCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 10/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28049692 27729734 28329835 30019935 30699894 31029804 30049718 28589642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 19:56:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 14:56:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410151957.i9FJvKt08890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151956 PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MD AND NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151956Z - 152200Z LIMITED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH NRN VA AND MD NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA SSWWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL VA. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE FRONT FROM NE VA INTO CNTRL MD WITH MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...STORM INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY MEAGER BUOYANCY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 10/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38227823 38897796 39657771 39877693 38787658 37887776 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 20:17:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 15:17:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410162018.i9GKILt24001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162017 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MD THROUGH NRN VA AND SERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162017Z - 162215Z ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN VA THROUGH NRN MD AND EXTREME SERN PA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG FROM NRN VA THROUGH MD AND INTO SE PA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED MINI SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..DIAL.. 10/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 39727611 38477608 38037762 38467815 39907685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 03:00:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 22:00:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410180302.i9I32Tt08526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180301 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-180600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW THRU CNTRL/E CNTRL AND SE MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180301Z - 180600Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. LATEST VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FEATURE IS BREAKING DOWN INTO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES AS IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MODELS SUGGEST LEAD SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 70F ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING...AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY ONGOING ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIFTED PARCELS MAY BEGIN REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 05-06Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE MAY REACH/EXCEED 1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...BASED NEAR TOP OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER /AT OR ABOVE 850 MB/. THIS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND ST. LOUIS. MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CAP AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ..KERR.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX... 38819360 39099232 38919071 38348975 37398960 36808999 36299165 36939262 37499317 38089357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 07:18:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 02:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410180720.i9I7KOt24579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180719 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-180815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL/CENTRAL-SRN MO SWD INTO AR/FAR ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 854... VALID 180719Z - 180815Z SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 854 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD INTO AR BY OR AFTER 09Z...WITH A NEW WW POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL AR. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD...WITH HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO AR. SWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 55 KT OVER WRN AR WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING EWD TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED SOUTH CENTRAL KS /JUST W OF MEDICINE LODGE/...ONE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MO...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS WRN KY A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS NRN-SERN OK INTO SRN AR. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SERN OK INTO SWRN AR ATTM... WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THE SWLY LLJ INTO SRN/CENTRAL MO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD ACROSS SRN IL TO SRN IND. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MO...WHERE STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE CAP REMAINS STRONGER FARTHER S ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR...AND IS CURRENTLY PRECLUDING TSTMS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 09Z AS HEIGHTS FALL AND THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA... 39049409 39119162 39009000 37218916 36128904 35069108 34759220 33889299 33729403 33839475 36039481 36719449 37289372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 09:39:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 04:39:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410180941.i9I9fat11690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180940 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 854... VALID 180940Z - 181015Z WW 854 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MO TO NEAR STL...AND THEN SEWD INTO WRN KY. VADS/PROFILER DATA FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY SHOWED THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO SWLY AND NOW EXTENDED FROM ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN MO. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ CORRESPONDS WITH THE PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS MO/IL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO IND/WRN KY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER MO/AR THIS MORNING. 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN STATES...NOSING INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AFTER 12Z. FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THUS LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS MOVE INTO THAT REGION. ..PETERS.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36689198 37099008 39009179 39189093 39258940 38758839 36088899 36099139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 12:43:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 07:43:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181245.i9ICj2u15720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181244 KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR/SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY TO NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181244Z - 181345Z ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO THIS MORNING. AREA TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER AR/SRN MO AS THE SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD...AND LIFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO AR ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG A 50 KT SWLY LLJ WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL SURFACE INVERSION /LESS THAN 1 KM IN DEPTH/ WHICH IS LIKELY INHIBITING THE STORMS FROM REALIZING THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/TORNADO POTENTIAL ATTM. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. A FEW STORMS HAVE THUS FAR SHOWN LITTLE STORM ROTATION...BUT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV... 36739192 37338977 37228792 35298861 34058957 33439146 33409313 33829385 34499392 35669276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 15:22:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 10:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181524.i9IFOou30551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181520 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-181645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181520Z - 181645Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND GUST IS EXPECTED WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN KS EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO /S OF STL/ AND INTO FAR SRN IND. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS INTERSECTING WARM FRONT NEAR VIH WITH A SWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE INTO NERN AR /NEAR ARG/. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH ASCENT OVER AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF E-CNTRL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY REMAINS COOL /TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/ WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONGEST CELLS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38759106 39308964 38918788 37778693 36628769 36458898 37069084 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 16:28:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 11:28:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181630.i9IGUFu04267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181629 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855... VALID 181629Z - 181800Z THROUGH 1730-1800Z...GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM 20 SE LIT/35 NNE PBF EWD INTO THE MS DELTA SW OF MEM. AS OF 1615Z...LIT VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED AN INTENSE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER SRN PRAIRIE COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KTS. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM UPSTREAM OVER SRN LONOKE COUNTY WAS ALSO EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO THE MS DELTA IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...SGT SURFACE OBSERVATION SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF LEADING SUPERCELL. GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2 /PER MODIFICATION OF MEM VWP WITH SGT SURFACE OBSERVATION/ EXPECT ONGOING SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHIFTING EWD INTO NWRN MS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34899289 35418827 33958824 33439290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 17:03:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 12:03:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181705.i9IH5Ru22554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181704 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181704Z - 181830Z CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN KS /NE OF CNU/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED EWD INTO CNTRL MO AND THEN SEWD INTO FAR SRN IL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT SSE OF SZL SEWD INTO SERN MO NEAR POF. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE BUOYANT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPES NOW FROM 1000-2000 J/KG /REF 16Z SGF SOUNDING/ AND A DECREASING CAP. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING NE OF AREA. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 /PER CONWAY MO PROFILER/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38029357 38799314 38599067 37538895 36468949 36629079 37009184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 18:54:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 13:54:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181855.i9IItvu21501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181855 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181855Z - 182030Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST JUST E OF WW 856 THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT AREA PRECLUDES A WW ISSUANCE ATTM. A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG WARM FRONT INVOF OF PAH OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT PAH VWP INDICATES A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WITH A SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WELL TO THE E ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IND AND INTO CNTRL KY...INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO WITHIN 60-70 NM E OF PAH. THUS...A SMALL SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS E OF WW 856 WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36598922 37758910 37878741 36438749 36488917 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 19:17:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 14:17:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181919.i9IJJ9u03576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181918 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-182015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855... VALID 181918Z - 182015Z THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA. THUS...WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z. A GENERAL DECREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO ACROSS NRN MS. THOUGH AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED EWD AHEAD OF STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING NE OF REGION INTO THE MIDDLE MS/ OH VALLEYS. FARTHER W ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AR...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG /PER 18Z LZK SOUNDING/. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...DECREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN RE-DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WOULD FORCE THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. UNLESS ENVIRONMENTAL CLUES SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT ARE OBSERVED PRIOR TO 20Z...WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34889291 35408828 33938826 33479290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 20:41:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 15:41:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182042.i9IKgmu27730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182041 KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 856... VALID 182041Z - 182215Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG WARM FRONT FROM 40 SW OF STL TO APPROXIMATELY 30 SSE BLV THROUGH 22-23Z. A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM GASCONADE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES SWD ACROSS DENT AND SHANNON COUNTIES. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CIN. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH WARM FRONT FROM SW OF STL TO SE OF BVL. HERE...MODIFICATION OF CURRENT STL VWP FOR SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS INVOF WARM FRONT YIELDS 0-1 KM SHEAR/SRH OF 20 KTS/200 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38819285 38728922 36548923 36649289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 22:20:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 17:20:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182221.i9IMLru13310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182221 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX...SRN AR...EXTREME NRN LA...NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182221Z - 190015Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO PASSAGE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HOWEVER...VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKING ONCE AGAIN AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET APPROACHES. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. VWPS INDICATE 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS FURTHER INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY STRONG / SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ETA MODEL PRODUCES PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 00-03Z. ALTHOUGH OVERALL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEAK...DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EWD INTO NRN MS OVERNIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34869217 34808947 33398919 32938990 32419399 32659470 33419458 33789398 34849271 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 23:02:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 18:02:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182303.i9IN3nu31560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182302 TNZ000-ALZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 857... VALID 182302Z - 190030Z AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT VEERING AS UPPER VORT PASSES...DECREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN STORM OF INTEREST OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER EWD OUT OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...BUT MAY STILL BE SEVERE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TORNADO THREAT...BEING FED FROM THE SW WITH UNSTABLE AIR. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING...AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ..JEWELL.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34548587 34288803 35238806 35398590 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 23:04:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 18:04:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182306.i9IN6Bu32394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182305 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NE AR...WRN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...859... VALID 182305Z - 190100Z RISK OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BEYOND 02-03Z...RISK OF LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF ST. LOUIS MO...ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARBONDALE IL/EVANSVILLE IN/LOUISVILLE KY AREAS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING ALONG FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONFLUENT BAND TRAILING SOUTH OF LOW INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. RISK OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT AROUND CARBONDALE...AS WELL AS WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MO AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. BY 01-02Z...AS WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO COOL...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT... ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES PRIMARILY BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. ..KERR.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38919022 39328949 39098800 38888731 38968624 39118517 38288412 37688432 37458554 37418721 37378815 37618907 37978992 38339034 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 02:08:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 21:08:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190210.i9J2ACu11539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190209 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 859...860...862... VALID 190209Z - 190415Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. WW 859 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BEFORE CURRENT 03Z EXPIRATION. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AT CREST OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AREA. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST... AND CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER IS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RISK FOR SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT DUE TO ONGOING SURFACE COOLING. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING MOST SLOWLY...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS WEAKER TO THE EAST OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36978906 37328830 37568729 37378597 36508591 36068637 35378694 34938762 34758847 34828992 35309019 35738988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 03:32:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 22:32:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190334.i9J3Yfu11749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190333 TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...PARTS OF NW AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...861...862... VALID 190333Z - 190530Z WWS 860/861/862 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 03Z. VERY SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...IN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR IN CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE ENHANCED NEXT FEW HOURS BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK MIGRATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY AND MERGER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ALONG WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME INCREASING THREAT WITH ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ..KERR.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34289195 35399108 36168975 36398797 36738667 36808545 36398420 35888436 35438496 34688721 34158824 33669017 33759078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 07:04:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 02:04:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190705.i9J75gu16749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190704 KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/NRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 863... VALID 190704Z - 190830Z ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED WITHIN WW 863 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW OVER SERN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS KY...WHILE A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN TN TO NRN AL. VADS/PROFILER DATA INDICATED A 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL MAINTAIN A 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN...AIDING IN SUSTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING EWD INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN AND FAR NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. TRAINING AND MERGING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM HARDEMAN COUNTY TN TO WARREN COUNTY TN. ..PETERS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36369094 36758606 36738468 34498570 34049094 35348929 35658901 35848743 35958587 35758565 35078585 35078781 35058910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 08:16:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 03:16:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190818.i9J8Icu07034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190817 NVZ000-CAZ000-191415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT IN THE MTNS OF NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190817Z - 191415Z HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 12Z IN THE MT. SHASTA REGION AND BY 15Z IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6 KFT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING AROUND 17Z. SNOWFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0730Z INDICATES IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE CA COAST. RAPID ENHANCEMENT OF COMMA TAIL/WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER COASTAL NRN CA AT THE PRESENT TIME SUGGESTS STRONG MID-LEVEL UVV AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN CA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH SLY 1KM WINDS OF 60KT PER EUREKA VAD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NRN/NERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION BAND/HVY SNOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD AT 25-30KT INTO THE MT SHASTA AREA BY 12Z. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 6 KFT...HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF INITIAL PRECIP BAND WILL COMMENCE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS...AND HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 17Z OR SO. INITIAL FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD REACH THE NRN SIERRAS BY 15Z. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.23IN/HR...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOCAL 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS AROUND MT. SHASTA AND IN THE NRN SIERRAS. ..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 38842007 38952050 39652103 40322149 40882174 41052194 40992221 40882259 40842287 41232298 41592293 41842269 41922214 41882161 41672108 41222073 40362027 39641991 39131983 39021980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 08:33:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 03:33:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190835.i9J8ZZu12748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190834 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/SRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL/NWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 863... VALID 190834Z - 190900Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN TN AND NRN MS/NRN AL AND POTENTIALLY NWRN GA. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN MS/WRN TN AND NWRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN MS/SWRN TN TO MIDDLE-ERN TN. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT BEING FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34009081 35408991 35818773 35828470 34918442 34298473 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 12:07:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 07:07:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191208.i9JC8vu30134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191208 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 864... VALID 191208Z - 191415Z WW 864 CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST CURRENT WATCH WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED PAST 13Z. AT 1201Z...SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS E-W FROM N-CENTRAL MS TO FAR SERN TN. BACKBUILDING ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON WRN END OF THE LINE NEAR TUP...ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45KT SWLY 1KM FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PER VAD WIND PROFILE AT COLUMBUS AFB IN NERN MS. ADDITIONALLY...REGION IS LOCATED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND CONTINUED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED. HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75" AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO WRN FLANK OF THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2"/HR ACROSS NERN MS AND NRN AL THROUGH LATE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...MINIMAL COLD POOL STRENGTH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS...WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LESSENING THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN ROBUST SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING UPWIND OF CURRENT E-W LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34468898 34838647 35028546 34068545 33958747 33808896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 16:05:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 11:05:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191607.i9JG7Mu16599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191606 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS EWD ACROSS SRN AL/WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191606Z - 191730Z SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEEPENING ALONG HORIZONTAL ROLLS WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN LA NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MS INTO SWRN AL. HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z SOUNDINGS/. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE ARKLATEX...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT JAN VWP INDICATES AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32569069 31868512 30488558 31249095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 18:14:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:14:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191815.i9JIFsu24640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191815 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865... VALID 191815Z - 191945Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN MS. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NRN MS OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEING OBSERVED WITH STORMS OVER LEE/ITAWAMBA AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES AS OF 1755Z. LOCAL AIR MASS S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PROFILER/VWP NETWORK ACROSS AR/LA/MS INDICATES THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER WITH 55-65 KT 500 MB WINDS BEING OBSERVED FROM FT. POLK LA NEWD INTO NERN MS. OKOLONA MS PROFILER CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2/ AND GIVEN THE LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. OVER AL...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS PROPAGATING SWD FROM W OF AUO TO NW OF MCN INTO W-CNTRL GA. GIVEN THE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CHARACTER OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF NERN AND E-CNTRL MS OWING TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AXIS AND MID/UPPER JET STREAKS. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34549081 33738525 32188531 32959080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 18:34:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191836.i9JIaQu03926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191835 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-192100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/SRN LA...SWRN MS AWAY FROM WW 866 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191835Z - 192100Z CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FROM SABINE RIVER AREA EWD ACROSS LA TOWARD MS RIVER...W AND SW OF WW 866. PRIND MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN TOO CAPPED AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT FOR TSTMS...EXCEPT OVER COASTAL S-CENTRAL/SERN LA. SHEAR PROFILES OVER EXTREME E TX AND CENTRAL LA FAVOR SUPERCELLS WHERE STORMS CAN FORM. MANY OFFSETTING FACTORS EVIDENT ATTM...INDICATING TSTMS MAY BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN EVENT CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHERE SHEAR IS STRONGEST. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING...THOUGH MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE WARMING. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES APCHG 3000 J/KG FOR MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. CINH APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN 50 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF REGION ATTM...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AS WELL. HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CU AND TCU EMBEDDED...ARE ALIGNED SW-NE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR VECTOR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VEERED/SWLY FLOW ACROSS REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE...MAKING MORE LOCALIZED HCR ENHANCEMENTS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT. DEEPER TOWERS EVIDENT IBERIA/VERMILION/IBERVILLE PARISHES MAY DEVELOP INTO TSTMS NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH LINEAR MODE LIKELY GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES AND WEAKER SHEAR OVER SERN LA. ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31208998 30328931 29609025 29539136 29869241 30099372 30619404 31389391 31819374 32369290 32749197 32799096 31769102 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 19:05:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:05:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191906.i9JJ6su21372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191906 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191906Z - 192030Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AIR MASS S OF PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN GA HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS GRADUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD OUT OF ERN AL INTO DISCUSSION AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG SEVERAL PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT BOTH STRONGER FORCING AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS MS/AL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE W OF THE AREA. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32558500 32738460 32598355 30668351 30708500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:07:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:07:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192009.i9JK9au26232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192008 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-192115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS/AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...866... VALID 192008Z - 192115Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW 865 WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVERSPREADING THE REGION APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MARKED INCREASE IN STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ACROSS MS/AL SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 865...TO THE N OF TORNADO WATCH 866 VALID UNTIL 20/00Z. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 34539078 33718516 30598504 31219103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:10:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:10:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192011.i9JKBlu27202@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192010 TNZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192010Z - 192245Z TSTMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS WRN TN...IN NARROW WEDGE OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING LOCATED BETWEEN SFC COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/MID TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM...DYR...25 NNW HSV. CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN ROTATION AND CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SMALL TIME/SPACE SCALE OF AFFECTED AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM 20 ENE TCL...TUP...MKL. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN WHILE FRONT MOVES SEWD 10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER NERN AND EXTREME SWRN TN. SFC BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS. AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED WITH LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF SFC COLD FRONT...LIMITING WARM SECTOR SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK/BACKED FLOW ALONG AND JUST E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTS IN 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER. BLEND OF MEM/BNA VWP AND OKO PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF BOUNDARY BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG... 35568980 36138921 36468863 36398838 36208814 35918807 35478819 35068835 35008870 35058983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:10:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:10:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192012.i9JKCNu27379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192008 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-192115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS/AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...866... VALID 192008Z - 192115Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW 865 WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVERSPREADING THE REGION APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MARKED INCREASE IN STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ACROSS MS/AL SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 865...TO THE N OF TORNADO WATCH 866 VALID UNTIL 20/00Z. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 34539078 33718516 30598504 31219103  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:12:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:12:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192014.i9JKEeu28700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192010 TNZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192010Z - 192245Z TSTMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS WRN TN...IN NARROW WEDGE OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING LOCATED BETWEEN SFC COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/MID TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM...DYR...25 NNW HSV. CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN ROTATION AND CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SMALL TIME/SPACE SCALE OF AFFECTED AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM 20 ENE TCL...TUP...MKL. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN WHILE FRONT MOVES SEWD 10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER NERN AND EXTREME SWRN TN. SFC BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS. AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED WITH LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF SFC COLD FRONT...LIMITING WARM SECTOR SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK/BACKED FLOW ALONG AND JUST E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTS IN 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER. BLEND OF MEM/BNA VWP AND OKO PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF BOUNDARY BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG... 35568980 36138921 36468863 36398838 36208814 35918807 35478819 35068835 35008870 35058983  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 22:47:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 17:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192249.i9JMn4u10078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192248 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 866...867... VALID 192248Z - 200045Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WWS. NEW WW REPLACING 866 AND 867 LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/00Z. SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY...BUT THIS IS OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM...FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE TEXAS PLAINS. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE WARMING ALOFT BEGINS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. IMPULSE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION...WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR/EAST OF JACKSON BY THE 20/00-03Z TIME FRAME. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ...WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO REDUCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KTS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN STRONGEST CONVECTION...INCLUDING NEWEST CONVECTION NOW TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON. ..KERR.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 32978948 32918834 32308630 31468527 30748569 30858682 31248801 31298867 31598963 31869033 32129058 32759023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 02:23:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 21:23:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410200224.i9K2Owu04248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200224 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 868... VALID 200224Z - 200430Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW 868 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND BEGUN A GRADUAL IN DECREASE STRENGTH...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET NOW AT OR BELOW 25 KT. GIVEN WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WEAK MID-LEVEL WARMING AND FURTHER SURFACE COOLING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASE IN INTENSITY ALREADY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..KERR.. 10/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34508853 33788835 33098736 31788528 31028410 30298387 29858504 30328628 30758738 31738852 32648923 33508952 34458964 34828930 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 14:17:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 09:17:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410201419.i9KEJBu11271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201418 CAZ000-201615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA AND ADJACENT WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VALID 201418Z - 201615Z LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION -- WITH NO CG LIGHTNING EVIDENT SO FAR -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS ORANGE/SAN DIEGO COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 16Z. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES IN INITIAL BAND OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. IN WINDWARD SLOPES OF SANTA ANA...LAGUNA AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO RANGES...RATES WILL LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HOUR IN INITIAL BAND. INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES POSSIBLE THEREAFTER...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN TRAILING PRECIP REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 1-1.25 INCH PW AND NEAR SATURATION THROUGH LOWEST 1-2 KM MSL. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED OVER NEAR-COASTAL MOUNTAINS GIVEN SLY AMBIENT WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER...VEERING TO SWLY. ALSO...PATTERN WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FAVORS ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. MODIFIED NKX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 300 J/KG SBCAPE...GIVEN OBSERVED DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F NEAR SHORE. MOST CAPE IS BELOW FREEZING LEVEL. OBSERVED/RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP ALSO INDICATE SRH 100-150 J/KG IN 0-1 KM LAYER. BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED/SHORT-LIVED FOR WW. ..EDWARDS.. 10/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 32581678 33131698 33431711 33501725 33431735 33491750 33681765 33911768 34161768 34341758 34321714 34201680 33361655 32611630 32521711 32721726 33061735 33321757 33491779 33631769 33731764 33631745 33411708 33151687 32721681 32611691 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 06:13:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 01:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410210615.i9L6F1u09951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210614 ALZ000-MSZ000-210715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN MS INTO WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210614Z - 210715Z A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE OVERALL THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 10Z. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS INTO WRN AL WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. THIS LIFT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN/ERN MS INTO FAR WRN AL. WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 15-20 KT BENEATH NWLY 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10 KFT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. 03Z RUC SUGGESTED WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BY 12Z WEAKENING WAA AND THUS DIMINISHING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 10/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34208997 34568942 34348767 33618683 32588655 31498715 31338792 31588895 32868968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 20:34:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 15:34:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410212035.i9LKZwu25320@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212034 AZZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212034Z - 212230Z NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN AZ THROUGH AFTERNOON. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE ORIENTED CLOUD/PRECIP BELT COVERS MUCH OF WRN AZ AND SERN CA. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EWD ATTM AND WILL ACCELERATE TO 10-15 KT EWD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED ACROSS REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS NOW JUST OFF ITS ERN EDGE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS BELT...POSING MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF LACK OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SFC COLD FRONT IS COLLOCATED WITH ERN EDGE OF THIS BAND. HOWEVER...ROUGHLY 75 NM WIDE AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BAND HAS EXPERIENCED HOURS OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND THEREFORE HEATED/DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY. MEANWHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE INCREASING IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SLOWLY OVER AREA. MODIFIED MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE REMOVAL OF MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER...AND PRESENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS OBSERVED JUST E OF CLOUD SHIELD...WOULD RESULT IN NEARLY UNCAPPED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH ABOUT 300-500 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY INCREASING COVERAGE/DEPTH OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDS IN HEATED CORRIDOR...AND LIKELIHOOD OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ON S AND SW FACING SLOPES. VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG -- PERHAPS TOO STRONG FOR MANY UPDRAFTS TO SURVIVE GIVEN ROUGHLY 100 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS IN TUS VWP. ANY SUSTAINED CELLS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS IN ADDITION TO THOSE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. ..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31801255 32571212 33641157 34371134 34501082 34251014 33660995 32391031 31311099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 13:08:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 08:08:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221310.i9MDAKu17786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221309 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CNTRL TX/WCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221309Z - 221515Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND WCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD THIS MORNING. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM NEAR MIDLAND EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F BUT THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS ELEVATED AS THEY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF LBB ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT MAF SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32370104 32900072 35009910 36729767 37159720 36529664 35249750 33319907 32070026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 15:28:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 10:28:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221530.i9MFUKu21533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221529 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221529Z - 221730Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN-OMA THROUGH 18Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD 35-45 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS FCST TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC...OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS SHORT-TERM REGIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER IN DAY...PER SITUATION DESCRIBED IN SWODY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE NOW...AND FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS BASED ON FCST BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS. ROUGHLY 7-10 DEG F SFC HEATING REQUIRED FOR ACTIVITY TO BE SFC-BASED WILL BE SLOW TO MATERIALIZE BECAUSE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ABOVE CAPPING LAYER -- AT LEAST 8 DEG C/KM BETWEEN 700-850 MB...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ. AREA WAS ALONG AND JUST W OF 850 MB ISODROSOTHERMAL AXIS AT 12Z AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD INTO IA. THIS RESULTS IN MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 40 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39069818 40009791 41229763 42279622 42129501 41369519 40539566 39599630 38599721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 17:10:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 12:10:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221712.i9MHCHu09972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221711 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI/NWRN IL...SCENTRAL/ERN IA...AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221711Z - 221915Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO INTO ERN IA AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN IL AND SWRN WI THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION NEWD INTO NWRN IL AND SWRN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN IA AND NRN MO. IN THIS AREA...STEEPER LAPSE RATES UP TO 8 DEG C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED EML WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND ALSO DECREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS. ..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 39689394 40209482 40829474 41569402 42489299 43259185 43369083 43208993 42738980 41838954 40658993 39899138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 18:08:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 13:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221809.i9MI9ru05516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221808 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN TX NEAR RED RIVER...MOST OF ERN OK...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221808Z - 222015Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY WITHIN BROAD PRECIP BAND NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX. NRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND/MOVE NEWD INTO PORTIONS EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN MO AS WELL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND IS EVIDENT AT 18Z ALONG BVO-MWL LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON SFC ANALYSIS OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN MO AND NRN AR. DEEPENING MOIST LAYER AND GRADUAL SFC HEATING -- WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F -- WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST WIND PROFILES INDICATE CONTINUED REGIME OF BACKING WITH HEIGHT WITHIN 1-4 KM AGL LAYER...SUPPORTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. PRIND SMALL BOWS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND AS FOREGOING INFLOW-LAYER AIR ACQUIRES MORE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...POTENTIAL SFC GUST STRENGTH WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND NEARLY PARALLEL WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR INDICATES INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE FOR SHORT PERIODS AT BEST BEFORE MERGING WITH PRECIP FIELDS FROM ADJACENT STORMS...EXCEPT FOR ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS THAT DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33339801 33909724 34849667 35669670 35899675 36459650 36739621 37129558 37329506 37419463 37399423 37139414 36719431 36439454 35689480 34559493 34229507 33629550 33219717 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 19:02:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 14:02:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221904.i9MJ4Cu02000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221902 NEZ000-SDZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221902Z - 222100Z ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TOWARDS SCENTRAL SD AFTER 22Z. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS THE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO NWRN NEB/SWRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAA EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESS EWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AID IN REMOVING EXISTING CINH OVER CENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE AREA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DRYING OVER CENTRAL NEB. AS MID LEVEL COOLING INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE REALIZED. STRONG FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE LINE CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD. ..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... 41230035 41740070 42650026 43279948 43329850 43049785 42229758 41229856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 20:54:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 15:54:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410222056.i9MKuOu29986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222055 TXZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222055Z - 222300Z TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG DECELERATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY THAT SEGMENT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SUTTON/KIMBLE COUNTIES NEWD TOWARD BOSQUE COUNTY. SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DECELERATING IN ITS EWD/SEWD MOTION AS TIME PASSES SINCE DEMISE OF CAUSATIVE CONVECTION. CLOUD BREAKS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND BOUNDARY....ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO HEAT INTO UPPER 70S AT BWD...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING OF COLD POOL. THIS IS EVIDENT IN ISALLOBARIC TRENDS AS WELL. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALLOWING TCU/CB THAT DEVELOP ALONG IT TO REMAIN ROOTED IN INFLOW LAYER TO ITS E WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS DEEPENING ALONG AND JUST E OF BOUNDARY ATTM...WHILE RUC BASED ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE CINH UNDER 25 J/KG OVER MOST OF AREA. STORMS FORMING ALONG MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY W JCT MAY MOVE OVER COLD POOL...REDUCING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RIGHT-MOVE ALONG OR E OF BOUNDARY IS FROM JCT NEWD BASED ON ITS ORIENTATION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...DEEP-LAYER SHEARS OF 50-60 KT AND PRESENCE OF ENHANCED SHEAR/VORTICITY RELATED TO BOUNDARY SHOULD ENHANCE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. THOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY WIND/HAIL...DISCRETELY PROPAGATING CELLS ALONG SSW-NNE ORIENTED PORTION OF BOUNDARY MAY POSE TORNADO THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30560092 30680042 30889937 31529859 32219757 31969707 31059718 30499787 30029913 29950046 30220114 30450120 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 21:26:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 16:26:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410222127.i9MLRTu12843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222126 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222126Z - 230000Z RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 23Z-01Z OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA /SERN SD AND FAR NERN NEB/. STRENGTH OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISO-SCT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT COOLING/VERTICAL MOTION CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEB...EVIDENT BY SFC BASED CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INVOF ONL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING AND RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE ERODED AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A LOW NEAR ONL TO JUST NORTH OF FSD...EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S THROUGH 00Z. ALTHOUGH VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN DRYING TREND OVER NCENTRAL NEB...THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS AND STRENGTHENS. THUS AXIS OF MID/UPPER 60S DEWPTS SHOULD BE RETAINED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING MUCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF OF WARM FRONT INDICATES THAT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT INDICATE THAT DURATION OF CONVECTIVE INTERACTION WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED. ..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42229693 42959769 43549787 44269787 44569628 44489545 43789491 43039455 42179535 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 00:44:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 19:44:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410230046.i9N0kKu21340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230044 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230044Z - 230145Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NEWD TOWARD MN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SCNTRL SD. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WAS LINKED WITH THE LOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE RED RVR VLY. TO THE SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT WAS ACCELERATING AND OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL NEB. A VERY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/LOW. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE/RECOVER ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SERN SD...RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. AS STRONG FORCING AIDS IN CAP REMOVAL...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN NEB. THESE TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD. ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CELLS TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...TSTMS...LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN/CNTRL SD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD. THESE TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL...GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION. ..RACY.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 41289828 42799840 43739902 45599748 45899677 45619589 43359553 42319546 41439599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 14:10:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 09:10:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410231411.i9NEBeu07968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231410 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-231545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI INTO NERN MN/ARROWHEAD REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231410Z - 231545Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND A WW MAY REQUIRED. ADDITIONALLY...SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWWD AT 1630Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED 988 MB LOW SE OF BJI WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI...WHILE COLD FRONT WAS STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MN AND IA. 12Z MPX SOUNDING /CAPTURING BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ALONG WARM FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-TROUGH / WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...1000-1500 MLCAPES AND ONLY A SMALL CAP. DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR OVER WRN/CNTRL WI NWWD TO AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER NERN MN. EXPECT TSTMS CURRENTLY E OF MSP TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE THROUGH 18Z. ..MEAD.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46399348 47039278 47229120 45758905 44238838 43358892 43018950 43149044 44889275 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 18:01:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 13:01:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410231803.i9NI3Cu21423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231802 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231802Z - 232000Z LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SERN AR/NRN LA IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OK/NRN TX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE IN THIS REGION OF STRONGEST CONVERGENCE INTENSIFYING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THIS LINE WILL AID IN A GREATER THREAT FOR A MORE DISCRETE CELL TYPE WITH TIME. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION THE AIRMASS WAS RECOVERING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH UPPER 70S TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LATITUDE OF GREENWOOD. CONTINUED WARMING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. DESPITE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ...WEAKENING/VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 31709129 32169258 32639277 34049211 34869061 35038928 34148851 32008872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:49:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:49:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232150.i9NLolu01791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232149 INZ000-ILZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL IL AND WCENTRAL/ SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232149Z - 232345Z SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN DECREASING THREAT AFTER 00Z. LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN/ERN IL AND MINIMAL CINH FROM FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. LEADING EDGE OF MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7 DEG C/KM OVER WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38078890 38528931 38778924 39648828 39988799 40368733 40218704 39758683 38848706 38298780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:52:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:52:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232153.i9NLrxu02856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232152 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232152Z - 232345Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS. EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT SUGGEST A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS NRN MS. SOME INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM AND AREAS OF CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 700 J/KG. STRONG ROTATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DIMINISHES AND ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32979122 34778908 34598807 33418839 32309111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:52:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:52:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232154.i9NLsNu02946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232149 INZ000-ILZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL IL AND WCENTRAL/ SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232149Z - 232345Z SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN DECREASING THREAT AFTER 00Z. LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN/ERN IL AND MINIMAL CINH FROM FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. LEADING EDGE OF MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7 DEG C/KM OVER WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38078890 38528931 38778924 39648828 39988799 40368733 40218704 39758683 38848706 38298780  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:53:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:53:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232155.i9NLt4u03190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232152 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232152Z - 232345Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS. EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT SUGGEST A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS NRN MS. SOME INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM AND AREAS OF CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 700 J/KG. STRONG ROTATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DIMINISHES AND ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32979122 34778908 34598807 33418839 32309111  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 19:37:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 14:37:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410241939.i9OJd2u21804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241938 TXZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241938Z - 242115Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW. SUBTROPICAL FLOW OF MID/HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEWD INTO NRN TX. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND MAY BE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX. WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE BIG BEND NEWD INTO NRN TX AND CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH 40 KT SWLY WINDS ARE LOCATED AROUND 20K FEET...WINDS BELOW THIS LEVEL ARE WEAK AND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS...THOUGH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT INDICATES THE HAIL THREAT IS LOW. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER HIGH LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS..WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL THREATS. ..IMY.. 10/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29310080 31249980 32149842 32039742 31319647 29459853 28440025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 17:40:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 12:40:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410261741.i9QHfcu06922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261740 CAZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTION OF THE SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261740Z - 262045Z SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 IN/HOUR BY 18 OVER ERN MADERA/ NERN FRESNO COUNTIES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF ERN FRESNO COUNTY BY 21Z. SNOW LEVELS OVER THESE AREAS WILL INITIALLY BE AT 6000-7000 FEET...BEFORE FALLING BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5500 FEET. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A 90 MILE WIDE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST TO WRN NV. THIS CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A WLY 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST ATTM...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ALONG AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST. TVL WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE NRN PORTION OF THIS CLOUD BAND HAS REPORTED MAINLY HEAVY SNOW SINCE 14Z WITH RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD TODAY...850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SWLY ACROSS ERN MADERA/ERN FRESNO COUNTIES...RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT/SNOWFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 10/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX... 36771893 37231924 37391941 37731956 37911938 38001922 37771900 37181854 36801835 36771877 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 22:21:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 17:21:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410262222.i9QMMxu23726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262221 KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262221Z - 270015Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL INTO EXTREME WRN KY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER SCOTT COUNTY IN EXTREME SERN MO IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 25 KT. THIS STORM IS MOVING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH 0-1 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100 TO 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST AS THE STORM CONTINUES ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO EXTREME SRN IL AND SWRN KY NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE THE STORM EVENTUALLY CROSSES INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 10/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH... 37648941 37098772 36688782 36758861 36898934 37039019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 23:30:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 18:30:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410272331.i9RNVJu26368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272330 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN NM / WRN PANHANDLES / SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272330Z - 280130Z A FEW SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...THOUGH GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID 70S ACROSS ERN NM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 HAS RESULTED IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO ADJACENT W TX. SURFACE OBS -- ALONG WITH PROFILER / VWP DATA -- ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SELY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE / TX SOUTH PLAINS. RESULTING WEAK CONVERGENCE / UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ABOVE THE BACKING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...MODERATE / DIFFLUENT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED. RESULTING 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FROM THE SSE THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AREAS WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS -- LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL HAIL. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS -- WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING. ..GOSS.. 10/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 35430496 36520425 37590293 37340185 35810146 33930175 33540301 33240443 33590533 34840527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 17:39:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 12:39:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410291740.i9THeSu24277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291739 MOZ000-KSZ000-292015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291739Z - 292015Z CHANCES FOR TSTM INITIATION APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH IS BEING ANTICIPATED. STRONG UPPER TROUGH...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD...AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FRONT/DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NWRN/CNTRL KS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WAS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO ATTM. CU FIELD OVER THIS AREA HAS ALSO BEEN THICKENING. VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. LATEST SREF AND RUC FCSTS SUGGEST THAT TSTM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NWRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS. AS FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FORCED ASCENT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING AND RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND REMAINS DISCRETE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC WOULD SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID NEWD CELL MOTION OF UP TO 50KT. THEREFORE...ONCE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD OVER A LARGE AREA IN RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37099567 37039656 37499685 38249656 39459545 40189491 40389407 40119358 39559358 37599483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 19:12:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 14:12:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410291913.i9TJDqV10519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291912 IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291912Z - 292145Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MO RIVER...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN...IA...AND PERHAPS NRN MO...WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS MO/IA AND SRN MN CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED STEADILY EWD ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND SERN SD...AND TRAILS SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS. DEEPER MIXING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MO RIVER. HOWEVER...MODEST HEATING AND GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS INTO IA/MN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING MLCAPE IN THESE AREAS. REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE OVERCOME FROM MO NWD ACROSS IA AS INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21-00Z. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS ENEWD FROM NWRN KS INTO IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD TAKE ON THE FORM OF VERY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS PARTS FROM MO INTO IA...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION MERGES INTO LARGER SQUALL LINE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40079465 40489546 41219566 42339541 43269535 43899520 44029388 43319302 42909260 41939261 41179262 40329343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 19:57:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 14:57:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410291958.i9TJwXV01718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291957 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...SERN ND...CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291957Z - 292230Z TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN AS DEEPENING CYCLONE DEVELOPS ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE FORCED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ASSIST PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WARM AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BEING LIFTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL FUEL STOUT UPDRAFTS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE WARM SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO SRN MN...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES AN EARLIER TREND OF SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION AND STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL PERSIST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO CNTRL MN. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN AS THIS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46249362 45769620 45219853 45930030 46699942 47489532 47719401 47239249 46439254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 20:19:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 15:19:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292020.i9TKKVV14698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292019 WIZ000-MNZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292019Z - 292215Z SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM S-CENTRAL MN EWD INTO W-CENTRAL WI BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AT 20Z...WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 990MB SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD EWD TO 25NW STC TO 50S DLH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING AS EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT 500MB JET ROTATES NEWD INTO SERN MN BY 30/00Z. ENHANCED FIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CU EXTENDING FROM SWRN MN SSWWD INTO NERN KS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER PVA...AND NRN FRINGE OF THIS FORCING WILL ALSO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS FROM VIS IMAGERY THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE OUT THIS ENHANCED CU FIELD THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO VERY STRONG...WITH STRONGEST VEERING/SRH LIKELY NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..BANACOS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45909106 46059189 46009398 45889459 43639410 43699280 43749172 44439103 44949085 45369080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 22:23:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 17:23:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292224.i9TMOrV07978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292224 IAZ000-MOZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869... VALID 292224Z - 300000Z LINE OF STORMS IS NOW BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED / INTENSE ACROSS IA. SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- CONTINUES. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 30 NW MCW TO 50 ESE OMA INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES...WITH OTHER / ISOLATED STORMS INCREASING AHEAD OF LINE. ISOLATED STORM NOW MOVING INTO CLARKE COUNTY HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH / DRYLINE ACROSS W CENTRAL IA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND INTO CENTRAL IA HAVE INCREASED 2-3 DEGREES F OVER THE PAST HOUR. DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS HAD REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK UP TO THIS POINT -- APPARENTLY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE / INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...THUS EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE ERN HALF OF IA. ..GOSS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... 43399390 43479221 40599254 40589520 42719396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 22:46:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 17:46:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292248.i9TMmRV15815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292246 WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-300015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / ERN IA / WRN WI / FAR NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292246Z - 300015Z STORMS NOW MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND ERN MN WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER WITH TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS NOW INDICATED. AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL INTENSIFY...AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. THOUGH MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE NOW ACROSS ERN MN / CENTRAL IA...STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. ..GOSS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46349211 46599031 46258932 43198924 40659149 40689244 43549201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 23:10:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 18:10:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292311.i9TNBAV25170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292310 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN / WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 292310Z - 300045Z SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF E CENTRAL AND SERN MN. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 30 E MKT SWD INTO IA...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE FROM THE MSP AREA NWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED / INTENSE WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACH. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED E OF ONGOING STORMS AND S OF WARM FRONT -- LYING ROUGHLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF WW -- ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..GOSS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46369477 46389207 43389194 43419351 44789376 45409384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 23:16:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 18:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292317.i9TNHOV27216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292316 ILZ000-MOZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292316Z - 300115Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL IL. CELLS WILL TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NEWD AT 35-40KT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM BMI SWWD TO JUST WEST AND NW OF STL. CELLS HAVE FORMED IN BROAD REGION OF DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW...WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH NERN EXTENT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD BAND WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN AR NEWD INTO W-CENTRAL IL. LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...ILX VAD INDICATES 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS EVENING LESSENS INSTABILITY. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TIED TO STRONG FORCING ACROSS IA AND MO TRACKS EWD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ..BANACOS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39919114 41428897 41598850 41418791 40758766 40258763 39848789 39088854 38598958 38488997 38619002 38839013 39159055 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 00:05:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 19:05:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300006.i9U06wV11360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300005 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-300130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO / SERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871... VALID 300005Z - 300130Z SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MO AND FAR SERN KS. RADAR LOOP SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG DRYLINE / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SRN IA / N CENTRAL MO SSWWD INTO FAR SERN KS / ERN OK. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH 50O TO 100 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH EAX /PLEASANT HILL MO/ WSR-88D VWP AND LATHROP MO PROFILER INDICATING 40 TO 50 KT SSWLY FLOW AT 1 KM INCREASING TO SWLY AT 70 KT AT 4 KM. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS WITHIN BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE...AND SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...ICT... 40619371 40599142 36999325 37139532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 00:30:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 19:30:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300031.i9U0V1V19477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300030 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MN / PARTS OF WRN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 300030Z - 300130Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS WW. AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWPS -- MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS SERN MN...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL MN FROM ROUGHLY PINE COUNTY NWD. CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE WW 870 WITHIN THE HOUR...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND THE REMAINDER MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO WW 873. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE LAGGING THE LINE OF STORMS BY ONLY ABOUT A COUNTY OR TWO...AND THUS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WW 870 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 30/02Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46389347 46349201 43379202 43539248 44759243 45599290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:05:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300106.i9U16SV30101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300105 IAZ000-MOZ000-300200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND INTO ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869... VALID 300105Z - 300200Z LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 35 SSE RST TO 20 ENE LWD CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THOUGH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE ATTM...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS. WITH THIS LINE EXPECTED TO VACATE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WW 869 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 30/02Z. MEANWHILE...SECOND BAND OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS INDICATED E OF MAIN LINE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN IA -- INCLUDING SERN PORTIONS OF WW 869. SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...AS THEY ALSO SHIFT EWD INTO WW 873 OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43379239 43409216 40579250 40599375 41889293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:31:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:31:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300132.i9U1WtV06014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300131 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / SWRN MO / WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 872... VALID 300131Z - 300300Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW ATTM. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS WW AS STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE LINEARLY ORIENTED WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY COOL / STABILIZE ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO SWRN MO / WRN AR...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS PER LATEST RADAR LOOPS. EVENING RAOBS FROM BOTH LIT AND SGF SUGGEST THAT A FEW DEGREES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING COMBINED WITH THE OBSERVED WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME OF ONGOING CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SUGGEST THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 37089402 37059321 33919442 33959643 34619623 36389497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 02:02:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 21:02:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300203.i9U23cV15059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300202 WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI / ERN IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873... VALID 300202Z - 300330Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA. LINE OF STRONG / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS / LEWPS CONTINUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...EXTENDING N-S ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW FROM NWRN WI SWD TO NERN MO ATTM. VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH 50 TO 80 KT FLOW INDICATED BETWEEN 1 KM AND 6 KM ACCORDING TO AREA VWP / PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN SD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT -- NOW MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS / STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46449206 46408903 40338952 40309232 41679230 44599110 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 02:14:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 21:14:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300215.i9U2FEV18573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300214 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871... VALID 300214Z - 300245Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WW AS AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. THOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST LOCALLY BEYOND THE 30/03Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 871...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT 25 KT ACROSS MO ATTM...EXTENDING FROM 40 NNW IRK SSWWD TO 20 NE CNU. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW ATTM...THOUGH STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL TENDENCY TO BECOME WEAKER / MORE DISORGANIZED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE. NONETHELESS...MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINING AROUND 500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THOUGH A LIMITED THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF WW 871...WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 37129404 39339320 40649220 40639136 37119313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 03:22:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 22:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300324.i9U3O0V07836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300323 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 872... VALID 300323Z - 300430Z TORNADO WATCH 872 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. LINEAR TSTM CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS NW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR. REGION IS WELL REMOVED FROM UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ONLY AN ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST REMAINS IN THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THIS TREND...WW 872 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. ..GUYER.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 33979640 34669557 36599401 37089306 33939430 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 03:45:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 22:45:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300346.i9U3kbV13971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300345 WIZ000-ILZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-300445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873... VALID 300345Z - 300445Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW 873. NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WI AND NRN IL. LINE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWPS -- CONTINUES SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WW ATTM. INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS / BOWS ARE MOVING NEWD AT NEAR 50 KT...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF OVERALL LINE MOTION SHOWS STORMS EXITING WW BETWEEN 30/0430 AND 05Z. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF LINE...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ INDICATED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF WI INTO NRN IL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...IS APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST BEYOND 30/05Z. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 873. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 46408993 46408905 45058782 42588784 41288767 40939073 42198995 43369033 45118985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 06:02:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 01:02:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300603.i9U63dV22852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300602 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-300730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...EXTREME NWRN/NRN IND...ERN WI AND LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 874... VALID 300602Z - 300730Z VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED EWD INTO LOWER MI OR NRN IND. LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS ERN WI INTO CNTRL IL WAS MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KTS AND WILL BE EXITING THE WW BETWEEN 07-08Z...THEN INTO LOWER MI AND NRN IND THEREAFTER. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS WEAKLY BUOYANT WITH MLCAPES OF 500-750 J/KG. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS THEY CROSS THE CHICAGO/LAKE MICHIGAN REGIONS. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING. ..RACY.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41008895 43228902 45698841 45698698 45738520 43158506 40968585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 19:16:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 14:16:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410301917.i9UJHfV06683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301916 TXZ000-302145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301916Z - 302145Z ELEVATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL INTO LATE AFTERNOON. NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT BISECTS CNTRL TX FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE PINEY WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WAS BEING DRAWN NWWD ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER BAJA/NWRN MEXICO. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING MAINTAINED BY MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING NORTH OF THE FRONT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING INVERSION... EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30KT WILL SUSTAIN/ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND AID IN HAIL PRODUCTION. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA. ..CARBIN.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30720051 29810120 30240199 31050170 31720137 32930040 33309984 33459930 33479871 33249818 31899868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 18:47:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 13:47:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410311848.i9VImOV07630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311847 TXZ000-312045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311847Z - 312045Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HILL COUNTRY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I10...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR CONCHO COUNTY IN CNTRL TX. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING AROUND THIS FEATURE AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL FCSTS OF INCREASING UVV AND QPF. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND EAST OF THE SW/NE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SUGGESTING AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RESPONDED WITH LATEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JCT TO FTW. AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A FEW CELLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND INCREASING AIRMASS INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY FURTHER LEND SUPPORT TO FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AT PRESENT...COULD INCREASE IF FRONTAL WAVE INTENSIFIES COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE. ..CARBIN.. 10/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 32729738 32029749 31429797 30129936 29870023 30570072 32040011 33099914 33499880 33589818 33559769 33379742 33059735 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 18:26:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 13:26:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410021827.i92IRZt16917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021826 VAZ000-NCZ000-022030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN VA THROUGH N CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021826Z - 022030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND SRN VA INTO CNTRL NC THIS AFTERNOON. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN VA THROUGH CNTRL NC...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE LEADING EDGE DEMARCATED BY A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS W VA INTO WRN NC. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN VA AND NC WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAKLY CAPPED. MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ISOLATED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. ..DIAL.. 10/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36127718 35647869 36378014 37347890 38327765 37937697 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 19:49:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 14:49:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410021950.i92Jott14608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021949 PAZ000-022145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021949Z - 022145Z MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL PA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH WRN PA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF CIRRUS PLUME. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S OVER PARTS OF CNTRL PA. SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THEY MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL PA. WSWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY TOO MARGINAL RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STRONG UPDRAFTS. ..DIAL.. 10/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP... 41167665 39917747 39907869 40747869 41477708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 20:54:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 15:54:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410022056.i92KuQt04849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022055 NYZ000-022300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022055Z - 022300Z THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD TOWARD CNTRL NY NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NY AT AROUND 30 TO 35 KT. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AOB 300 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. ..DIAL.. 10/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42547698 44677507 44347394 42357514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 03:40:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 22:40:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410040341.i943fjt24471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040340 TXZ000-NMZ000-040645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 040340Z - 040645Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL AND TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACTS ON RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER THESE AREAS. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A WATCH IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. VERY WIDELY SPACED AND OCCASIONALLY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS LASTED THROUGH THE EVENING FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE TX PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NM AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SERN NM WAS VERY MOIST WITH MAF EVENING RAOB SAMPLING PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES. NEAR SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THIS AREA WAS RELATIVELY STABLE BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP THE STABLE LAYER...COUPLED WITH DECREASING STATIC STABILITY WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE... SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC/ETA MODELS AND 21Z SREFS WHICH ALL DEPICT A STRONG INCREASE IN UVVS AND CONVECTIVE QPF FROM ERN NM ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH 09Z. FDX RADAR LOOPS WAS DEPICTING A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SWD BETWEEN CVS AND LBB. IN ADDITION...TSTMS WERE PERSISTING AND TRAINING ALONG THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...OVER NRN LINCOLN COUNTY NM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS GREATER MOISTURE INFLOW IS ENCOUNTERED ON THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW CELLS POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32890035 32360165 32070283 32070385 32500500 33410571 34390527 34410325 34740188 34610065 33840005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 12:31:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 07:31:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410041233.i94CXNt07485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041232 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041231 TXZ000-NMZ000-041300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041231Z - 041300Z ...ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT NO WW ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN STATES EWD ACROSS TX. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING IMPULSES. MAF 12Z SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...ALTHOUGH PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700 MB RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG DUE TO STEEP MID/UPPER LAPSE RATES. THESE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30760178 30920346 31880518 32750487 33180382 33180112 31809995 30690080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 15:14:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 10:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410041515.i94FFot30000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041514 TXZ000-041715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041514Z - 041715Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN TX. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR LONGVIEW WWD TO NEAR WACO ARE MOVING SSEWD AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED AS ELEVATED STORMS IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS ACROSS E CNTRL AND SE TX. THE WEAKENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST AS A STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CAP IS WEAK...AND THE SWD MOMENTUM ENHANCED BY THE COLD POOL MAY SUSTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE FOR THE STORMS TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31709717 31719600 31879425 30679375 30109666 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 18:23:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 13:23:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410041824.i94IOgt06432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041823 LAZ000-TXZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041823Z - 042030Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NW LA NEAR NATCHITOCHES SWWD INTO SERN TX NEAR HUNTSVILLE. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED...FORWARD PROPAGATION ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM COLD POOL IS MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE AND 20-25 KT OF LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. WEAK CAP AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD SEWD PROPAGATING MCS NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AND ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS THEY CONTINUE SWD AND RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR HAVE BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30709579 31159439 31589282 29939252 29769406 29239524 29819616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 21:43:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 16:43:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410042144.i94Likt30121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042143 TXZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 042143Z - 050045Z ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A REPEAT SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY AS SECOND MCS IN A DAY MOVES ACROSS SAME AREAS. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF SWRN LA MCS WAS EVIDENT IN WIND AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LONG-LIVED MCS WAS MOVING EAST INTO BURNET... LAMPASAS...CORYELL...AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN CNTRL TX. IT APPEARS THAT A CONVECTIVE COLD POOL WAS DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES IN A N-S LINE. FURTHERMORE... ISOLD CELLS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN TX IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND MCS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MCS EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THIS. HOWEVER...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TEMPS AND NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL FUEL ADVANCING CONVECTION WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A FEW CELLS...OR CELL MERGERS...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND REPEAT HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG A NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW...WILL ENHANCE FLOODING POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29609456 29299617 29889787 30629886 31189823 31409800 29979407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 22:15:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 17:15:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410042216.i94MGYt13920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042215 TXZ000-NMZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND PARTS OF WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042215Z - 050045Z PARTS OF SERN NM AND WEST TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE INITIATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN EDDY AND WRN LEA COUNTIES IN SERN NM. THIS REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO SERN NM HAS ENHANCED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST AIRMASS AND HEATING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH LATEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY UNFAVORABLE...FOCUS FOR ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FAVORED ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR INVOF TERRAIN FEATURES. IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45KT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH STORM COVERAGE STILL UNCERTAIN...A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT. ..CARBIN.. 10/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31180264 31460479 32280529 33180552 33520513 33590425 33320282 32620185 31650180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 07:56:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 02:56:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410050758.i957wLt03811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050757 NMZ000-050900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050757Z - 050900Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT LEAST 10/11Z...BUT THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ABQ EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND PROFILER NEAR CVS SHOWS ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WHILE ABQ VAD SHOWS WINDS VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM. THESE WIND PROFILES INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ROTATE. INTENSE STORM 40 NNE 4CR IS MOVING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN DEEPER ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE STORM ROTATION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL...POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZED...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. ..IMY.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... 34810560 35410511 35220314 33930305 33990452 34180560 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 10:53:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 05:53:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410051054.i95Asft06849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051053 NMZ000-051200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051053Z - 051200Z A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH THE ISOLATED THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SERN UT THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE SSEWD INTO AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...GENERALLY FROM WEST OF CVS SWWD INTO NEAR ALM. ..IMY.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 34500467 34570337 33830315 32090499 32280730 33930647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 15:20:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 10:20:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410051521.i95FLnt31231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051520 TXZ000-NMZ000-051715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/PARTS OF W TEXAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 051520Z - 051715Z SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS... BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH STRONGEST DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD NOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MUCH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH CURVES SOUTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BASED IN STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THUS...WHILE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY CLUSTER NOW APPROACHING LUBBOCK MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE GUSTY WINDS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SYSTEM WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF ROSWELL. THIS IS WHERE STRONGER FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING/PERSISTENT CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. ..KERR.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35950558 35840445 35370315 34380168 33210152 32820304 33270416 33500479 33660539 34300623 34740621 35630647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 19:48:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 14:48:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410051949.i95JnRt28090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051948 TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-052145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850... VALID 051948Z - 052145Z CONTINUE WW. 40-45 KT 500 MB JET STREAK HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CYCLONIC ARC FROM SOUTHWEST COLORADO INTO THE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS IS WHERE STRONGER HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY...NOW SOUTH OF HOBBS AND ROSWELL...CURVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE...WHERE ENHANCED LIFT IS SUPPORTING MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER EASTERN VALENCIA COUNTY...AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITH ACTIVITY NOW INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...AS IT APPROACHES SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TORRANCE COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP EASTWARD...ABOVE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO NORTH OF FRONT. ..KERR.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT... 34900738 35370728 36000736 36620749 37050780 37560828 37810750 37410663 35730601 34730584 34160583 33630516 33130406 32480322 31920329 32150453 32160519 32300557 32900641 32780718 33340797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 22:14:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 17:14:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410052216.i95MGFt11182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052215 TXZ000-NMZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851... VALID 052215Z - 052345Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF DONNA ANA AND OTERO COUNTIES OF SRN NM...AS WELL AS EL PASO...HUDSPETH...AND CULBERSON COUNTIES IN FAR WEST TX. STORMS SHOULD BE INCREASING ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MODEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ATOP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND SERN PORTIONS OF NM LAST FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING INVOF SURFACE LOW NEARING ELP AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG THE SRN NM WEST TX BORDER AREA THROUGH 00Z/6PM MDT. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TOPPED BY 30-40KT DIFFLUENT WLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS ON THE SRN LINCOLN/SWRN CHAVES COUNTY LINE IN NM APPEAR TO BE ANCHORING ON THE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED AS ADDITIONAL CELLS CROSS THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING WHERE GREATER MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST. ..CARBIN.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31750695 33480662 32730299 30980337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 23:14:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 18:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410052316.i95NG4t02561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052314 TXZ000-NMZ000-060045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850... VALID 052314Z - 060045Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SERN NM WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRONG NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL TRACK ESEWD ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL HELICITY COINCIDE WITH LOW LFC AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. INTENSE CELLS OVER LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE CONTINUING TO TAP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ESEWD INTO THE HOBBS...WINK...MIDLAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 10/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 31050211 31000482 33430482 33480211 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 01:44:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 20:44:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410060146.i961kFt29143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060145 TXZ000-NMZ000-060345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 852... VALID 060145Z - 060345Z A NUMBER OF INTENSE TSTM CELLS CONTINUE TO DRIFT GENERALLY EWD ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 852 AT THIS HOUR. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST LIKELY BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...MESOSCALE FORCING...AND STRONG SHEAR ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE WATCH BOX SHOULD BE AN AREA REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL OR TWO. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SMALL MCS BUT SLOW MOVEMENT AND MORE STABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT AFTER ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 10/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30610228 30470565 33160637 33590290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 03:31:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 22:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410060333.i963XQt08481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060332 TXZ000-NMZ000-060530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 852... VALID 060332Z - 060530Z A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX WITHIN THE HOUR. MATURE LINEAR MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST INTO MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. GIVEN STRONG FORCING FROM MID LEVEL IMPULSE...40KT WIND MAX MOVING ACROSS LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW...AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING LINE...A MARGINAL WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST EWD/SEWD INTO WEST TX OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY TX AND IT APPEARS THAT UNTAPPED UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THIS AREA WAS NOW COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...AN NEW WATCH IS PROBABLY NEEDED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO COVER THIS CONTINUING ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 10/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30650229 30510566 32070617 32110483 33630375 33580276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 06:23:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 01:23:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410060624.i966OWt07054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060623 TXZ000-060800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853... VALID 060623Z - 060800Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW 853...BUT OVERALL WEAKENING OF STORMS IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WW. WEAKENING BOW ECHO AT 0615Z EXTENDED FROM 40 SE LBB TO NEAR BGS TO 20 S MAF. LINE IS ONLY MOVING EWD AT 25 KT AND INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY...SO THE WIND THREAT WITH LINE APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR STORMS EXTEND FROM 20 SSE OF INK TO 50 NW MRF AND ARE LOCATED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY REMAIN IN THE BIG BEND AREA AFTER 08Z...THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED. THEREFORE...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS UNLIKELY AFTER WW 853 EXPIRES AT 0800Z. ..IMY.. 10/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...EPZ... 31520499 31630362 32050262 32770190 33380182 33070017 30200298 30180614 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 00:23:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 19:23:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410070024.i970OOt21928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070023 TXZ000-NMZ000-070130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR SRN NM INTO SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070023Z - 070130Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. SMALL AREAL AND TEMPORAL THREAT AREA WILL PRECLUDE A WW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM THE TX BIG BEND REGION NNWWD INTO SERN NM. REGIONAL RADARS/ LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN/SERN NM SWD INTO MEXICO AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER WRN NM INTO NRN MEXICO. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35-55 KT. ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN...WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DECREASING AFTER 02Z. ..PETERS.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... 31520623 32360549 32470414 30840373 30170387 30150468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 07:02:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 02:02:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410070704.i97746t08836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070703 TXZ000-NMZ000-070800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070703Z - 070800Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...THOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NM AIDED LIFTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR WRN TX. A COLD POOL DEVELOPED WITH THESE STORMS...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG/20-30 KT/...EWD MOTION OF SYSTEM AT 40 KT SUGGESTS THAT A SEVERE WIND THREAT EXISTS. ALSO...PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE LINE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NM LIFTS NEWD TOWARD SERN CO...THE 850MB FLOW ACROSS SWRN TX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND VEER. THE WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING SUGGESTS THE WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD. ..IMY.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 31280357 32000354 32520242 32450205 31200177 30520292 30670414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 12:14:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 07:14:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410071215.i97CFrt23383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071214 OKZ000-TXZ000-071445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 071214Z - 071445Z RAINFALL RATES AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CENTRAL OK THROUGH 15Z...AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. AT 1200Z....A SQUALL LINE STRETCHED ACROSS WRN TX FROM 60 SW CDS TO NEAR ABI TO SE OF SJT. AN APPARENT MCV WAS LOCATED AT THE NORTH END OF THE LINE AND WAS MOVING NEWD AT 30 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION/SPEED OF THE MCV...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SWRN OK NEAR LTS BY 14Z AND INTO CADDO COUNTY OK BY 16Z. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS NEWD AND STORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE IN AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCV. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY DRIFT SLOWLY NWD... STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCV. THE DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...7.5C/KM ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...RESULTING IN MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...AND SINCE THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...SOME RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 5 INCHES. ..IMY.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN... 35969818 35669872 35279918 34669984 34309926 34489877 35389766 35749760 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 20:09:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 15:09:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410072010.i97KAat11387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072009 OKZ000-TXZ000-072215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072009Z - 072215Z ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS... BUT NEED FOR WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS 40 KT 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER... FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/EAST OF AMARILLO. PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY MAY BE SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET...WHICH MAY SUPPORT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY AROUND 22Z. AS UPDRAFTS INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...AND LIKELY TO WEAKEN...BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW CELLS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 08/00Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING. ..KERR.. 10/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35470140 35980164 36220081 35979966 34549945 33939982 33590065 34160126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 18:02:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 13:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410091803.i99I3gt26824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091802 TXZ000-092030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091802Z - 092030Z THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE LUBBOCK AREA...BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. 30+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK HAS GRADUALLY ROTATED FROM NORTHWESTERN TO WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF PLAINVIEW. SOUTH/SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA APPEARS LIKELY BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOLLOWING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY APPROACH 70F...SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -16C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS...BUT PEAK SURFACE GUSTS IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 10/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... 34430234 34590196 34090141 33750103 33110088 32750148 32780211 33320251 34020249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 10:29:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 05:29:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410101030.i9AAUmt03716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101029 MSZ000-LAZ000-101200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101029Z - 101200Z POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD ACROSS SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. 10Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CENTER OF T.S. MATTHEW CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NRN GULF OF MEXICO SW OF HUM. CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS N OF CIRCULATION FROM THE COAST NWD TOWARD BTR SUGGESTS A CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER FAR SERN LA HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY WITH SUSTAINED 20-25KT ESELY FLOW ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS ONSHORE. MODIFICATION OF PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS MOIST AIR MASS YIELDS MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF CIN. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS SAMPLED BY CURRENT LIX VWP /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2/...POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE SURFACE-BASED STORMS. ..MEAD.. 10/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX... 29599106 30819110 30878989 30238916 29108937 29019081 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 19:56:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 14:56:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410111957.i9BJvMt29136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111956 TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM / FAR W TX... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111956Z - 112130Z THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED SUGGESTS THAT WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM. LIMITED HEATING OF MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 50S DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WITH ML CAPE NOW NEAR 500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. MORNING EPZ /EL PASO TX/ RAOB INDICATED STEEP /7.9 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND FAVORABLY VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. LATEST WSM /WHITE SANDS NM/ PROFILER CONFIRMS THIS...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 50 KT FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS. DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. AN ORGANIZED STORM HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING E ACROSS OTERO COUNTY NM...BUT DESPITE SOME WEAK ROTATION VIL HAS REMAINED BELOW 40 WITH THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO LIMIT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INCH TO GOLF BALL SIZE. ..GOSS.. 10/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... 31360898 32240938 33780885 34030636 33520406 32720288 31810225 31530347 30320356 29690452 30180471 30660500 31740638 31780821 31340819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 17:00:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 12:00:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410131701.i9DH16t04778@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131700 NCZ000-131830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131700Z - 131830Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EXISTS ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL NATURE OF THREAT. LATEST DATA INDICATES MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INVOF WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NC ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...BUT LATEST MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ VWP -- SAMPLING MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW -- SHOWS A MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 15 KT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THEREFORE...WITH ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF ERN NC AS PER RECENTLY-ISSUED SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH LIMITED THREAT EXISTS...AREA AFFECTED REMAINS QUITE SMALL -- GENERALLY WITHIN COASTAL NC COUNTIES EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE ALBEMARLE TO THE PAMLICO SOUNDS. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED EWD SHIFT IN MAIN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ZONE SUGGESTS THAT THREAT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE SUCH THAT TORNADO WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 10/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 35907687 36317604 36247575 35257553 34687653 34687712 34847751 35647708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 23:12:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 18:12:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410132312.i9DNCqt10081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132311 NCZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132311Z - 140115Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A SFC LOW. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS ERN NC WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 34847637 34757661 34917822 35327944 35707961 36257919 36167782 35897682 35537626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 04:00:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 23:00:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410140400.i9E40xt23335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140400 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140400 TXZ000-140600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140400Z - 140600Z SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN TX. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE A LINE OF CELLS IS DEVELOPING. THE FRONT IS CUTTING UNDERNEATH THE STORMS AND THEY ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE. OTHER SFC-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR SAN ANTONIO ON THE EAST EDGE OF AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PASSING EWD TROUGH THE BASE OF A PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION...LIFT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. AS UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE DRAWN NWWD INTO SCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BROYLES.. 10/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...SJT... 28049692 27729734 28329835 30019935 30699894 31029804 30049718 28589642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 19:56:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 14:56:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410151957.i9FJvKt08890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151956 PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MD AND NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151956Z - 152200Z LIMITED THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH NRN VA AND MD NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA SSWWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL VA. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE FRONT FROM NE VA INTO CNTRL MD WITH MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...STORM INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY MEAGER BUOYANCY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. ..DIAL.. 10/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38227823 38897796 39657771 39877693 38787658 37887776 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 20:17:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 15:17:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410162018.i9GKILt24001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162017 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MD THROUGH NRN VA AND SERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162017Z - 162215Z ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN VA THROUGH NRN MD AND EXTREME SERN PA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HEATING AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG FROM NRN VA THROUGH MD AND INTO SE PA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED MINI SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..DIAL.. 10/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 39727611 38477608 38037762 38467815 39907685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 03:00:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 22:00:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410180302.i9I32Tt08526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180301 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-180600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW THRU CNTRL/E CNTRL AND SE MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180301Z - 180600Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. LATEST VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER FEATURE IS BREAKING DOWN INTO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES AS IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MODELS SUGGEST LEAD SHORT WAVE MAY ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 70F ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING...AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY ONGOING ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIFTED PARCELS MAY BEGIN REACHING LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 05-06Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE MAY REACH/EXCEED 1500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...BASED NEAR TOP OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER /AT OR ABOVE 850 MB/. THIS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN COLUMBIA AND ST. LOUIS. MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CAP AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ..KERR.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX... 38819360 39099232 38919071 38348975 37398960 36808999 36299165 36939262 37499317 38089357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 07:18:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 02:18:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410180720.i9I7KOt24579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180719 TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-180815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL/CENTRAL-SRN MO SWD INTO AR/FAR ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 854... VALID 180719Z - 180815Z SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 854 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD INTO AR BY OR AFTER 09Z...WITH A NEW WW POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL AR. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD...WITH HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO AR. SWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 55 KT OVER WRN AR WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING EWD TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED SOUTH CENTRAL KS /JUST W OF MEDICINE LODGE/...ONE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MO...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS WRN KY A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS NRN-SERN OK INTO SRN AR. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SERN OK INTO SWRN AR ATTM... WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THE SWLY LLJ INTO SRN/CENTRAL MO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD ACROSS SRN IL TO SRN IND. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MO...WHERE STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE CAP REMAINS STRONGER FARTHER S ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR...AND IS CURRENTLY PRECLUDING TSTMS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 09Z AS HEIGHTS FALL AND THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA... 39049409 39119162 39009000 37218916 36128904 35069108 34759220 33889299 33729403 33839475 36039481 36719449 37289372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 09:39:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 04:39:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410180941.i9I9fat11690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180940 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0440 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 854... VALID 180940Z - 181015Z WW 854 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MO TO NEAR STL...AND THEN SEWD INTO WRN KY. VADS/PROFILER DATA FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY SHOWED THE LLJ HAS VEERED TO SWLY AND NOW EXTENDED FROM ERN OK/WRN AR TO ERN MO. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ CORRESPONDS WITH THE PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS MO/IL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO IND/WRN KY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER MO/AR THIS MORNING. 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN STATES...NOSING INTO LOWER MS VALLEY AFTER 12Z. FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THUS LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS MOVE INTO THAT REGION. ..PETERS.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36689198 37099008 39009179 39189093 39258940 38758839 36088899 36099139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 12:43:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 07:43:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181245.i9ICj2u15720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181244 KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR/SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY TO NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181244Z - 181345Z ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO THIS MORNING. AREA TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER AR/SRN MO AS THE SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD...AND LIFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO AR ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG A 50 KT SWLY LLJ WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN OK TO THE MID MS VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL SURFACE INVERSION /LESS THAN 1 KM IN DEPTH/ WHICH IS LIKELY INHIBITING THE STORMS FROM REALIZING THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/TORNADO POTENTIAL ATTM. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. A FEW STORMS HAVE THUS FAR SHOWN LITTLE STORM ROTATION...BUT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV... 36739192 37338977 37228792 35298861 34058957 33439146 33409313 33829385 34499392 35669276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 15:22:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 10:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181524.i9IFOou30551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181520 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-181645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181520Z - 181645Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND GUST IS EXPECTED WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN KS EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO /S OF STL/ AND INTO FAR SRN IND. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS INTERSECTING WARM FRONT NEAR VIH WITH A SWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE INTO NERN AR /NEAR ARG/. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH ASCENT OVER AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF E-CNTRL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY REMAINS COOL /TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/ WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONGEST CELLS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38759106 39308964 38918788 37778693 36628769 36458898 37069084 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 16:28:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 11:28:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181630.i9IGUFu04267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181629 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855... VALID 181629Z - 181800Z THROUGH 1730-1800Z...GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM 20 SE LIT/35 NNE PBF EWD INTO THE MS DELTA SW OF MEM. AS OF 1615Z...LIT VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED AN INTENSE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER SRN PRAIRIE COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KTS. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM UPSTREAM OVER SRN LONOKE COUNTY WAS ALSO EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO THE MS DELTA IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...SGT SURFACE OBSERVATION SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF LEADING SUPERCELL. GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2 /PER MODIFICATION OF MEM VWP WITH SGT SURFACE OBSERVATION/ EXPECT ONGOING SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHIFTING EWD INTO NWRN MS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34899289 35418827 33958824 33439290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 17:03:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 12:03:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181705.i9IH5Ru22554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181704 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-181830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181704Z - 181830Z CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN KS /NE OF CNU/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED EWD INTO CNTRL MO AND THEN SEWD INTO FAR SRN IL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT SSE OF SZL SEWD INTO SERN MO NEAR POF. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE BUOYANT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPES NOW FROM 1000-2000 J/KG /REF 16Z SGF SOUNDING/ AND A DECREASING CAP. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING NE OF AREA. HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 /PER CONWAY MO PROFILER/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38029357 38799314 38599067 37538895 36468949 36629079 37009184 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 18:54:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 13:54:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181855.i9IItvu21501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181855 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181855Z - 182030Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST JUST E OF WW 856 THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THREAT AREA PRECLUDES A WW ISSUANCE ATTM. A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG WARM FRONT INVOF OF PAH OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT PAH VWP INDICATES A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WITH A SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WELL TO THE E ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IND AND INTO CNTRL KY...INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO WITHIN 60-70 NM E OF PAH. THUS...A SMALL SPATIAL CORRIDOR EXISTS E OF WW 856 WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36598922 37758910 37878741 36438749 36488917 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 19:17:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 14:17:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410181919.i9IJJ9u03576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181918 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181918 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-182015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855... VALID 181918Z - 182015Z THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA. THUS...WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 20Z. A GENERAL DECREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO ACROSS NRN MS. THOUGH AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED EWD AHEAD OF STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING NE OF REGION INTO THE MIDDLE MS/ OH VALLEYS. FARTHER W ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AR...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG /PER 18Z LZK SOUNDING/. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...DECREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN RE-DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WOULD FORCE THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. UNLESS ENVIRONMENTAL CLUES SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT ARE OBSERVED PRIOR TO 20Z...WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34889291 35408828 33938826 33479290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 20:41:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 15:41:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182042.i9IKgmu27730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182041 KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 856... VALID 182041Z - 182215Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG WARM FRONT FROM 40 SW OF STL TO APPROXIMATELY 30 SSE BLV THROUGH 22-23Z. A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM GASCONADE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES SWD ACROSS DENT AND SHANNON COUNTIES. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CIN. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH WARM FRONT FROM SW OF STL TO SE OF BVL. HERE...MODIFICATION OF CURRENT STL VWP FOR SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS INVOF WARM FRONT YIELDS 0-1 KM SHEAR/SRH OF 20 KTS/200 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY. ..MEAD.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38819285 38728922 36548923 36649289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 22:20:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 17:20:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182221.i9IMLru13310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182221 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX...SRN AR...EXTREME NRN LA...NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182221Z - 190015Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO PASSAGE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HOWEVER...VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKING ONCE AGAIN AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET APPROACHES. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. VWPS INDICATE 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS FURTHER INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY STRONG / SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ETA MODEL PRODUCES PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 00-03Z. ALTHOUGH OVERALL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEAK...DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING EWD INTO NRN MS OVERNIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34869217 34808947 33398919 32938990 32419399 32659470 33419458 33789398 34849271 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 23:02:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 18:02:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182303.i9IN3nu31560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182302 TNZ000-ALZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 857... VALID 182302Z - 190030Z AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE WINDS ALOFT VEERING AS UPPER VORT PASSES...DECREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. MAIN STORM OF INTEREST OVER LAUDERDALE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER EWD OUT OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT...BUT MAY STILL BE SEVERE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TORNADO THREAT...BEING FED FROM THE SW WITH UNSTABLE AIR. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING...AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ..JEWELL.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34548587 34288803 35238806 35398590 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 23:04:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 18:04:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410182306.i9IN6Bu32394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182305 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-190100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NE AR...WRN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...859... VALID 182305Z - 190100Z RISK OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BEYOND 02-03Z...RISK OF LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF ST. LOUIS MO...ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARBONDALE IL/EVANSVILLE IN/LOUISVILLE KY AREAS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING ALONG FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG CONFLUENT BAND TRAILING SOUTH OF LOW INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. RISK OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT AROUND CARBONDALE...AS WELL AS WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MO AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. BY 01-02Z...AS WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO COOL...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT... ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES PRIMARILY BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. ..KERR.. 10/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38919022 39328949 39098800 38888731 38968624 39118517 38288412 37688432 37458554 37418721 37378815 37618907 37978992 38339034 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 02:08:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 21:08:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190210.i9J2ACu11539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190209 KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 859...860...862... VALID 190209Z - 190415Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. WW 859 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BEFORE CURRENT 03Z EXPIRATION. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AT CREST OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AREA. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST... AND CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER IS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RISK FOR SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT DUE TO ONGOING SURFACE COOLING. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLING MOST SLOWLY...AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS WEAKER TO THE EAST OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36978906 37328830 37568729 37378597 36508591 36068637 35378694 34938762 34758847 34828992 35309019 35738988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 03:32:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 22:32:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190334.i9J3Yfu11749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190333 TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...PARTS OF NW AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...861...862... VALID 190333Z - 190530Z WWS 860/861/862 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 03Z. VERY SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...IN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR IN CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE ENHANCED NEXT FEW HOURS BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK MIGRATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY AND MERGER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ALONG WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME INCREASING THREAT WITH ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ..KERR.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34289195 35399108 36168975 36398797 36738667 36808545 36398420 35888436 35438496 34688721 34158824 33669017 33759078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 07:04:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 02:04:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190705.i9J75gu16749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190704 KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/NRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 863... VALID 190704Z - 190830Z ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED WITHIN WW 863 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW OVER SERN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS KY...WHILE A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN TN TO NRN AL. VADS/PROFILER DATA INDICATED A 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL MAINTAIN A 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN...AIDING IN SUSTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING EWD INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN AND FAR NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. TRAINING AND MERGING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM HARDEMAN COUNTY TN TO WARREN COUNTY TN. ..PETERS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36369094 36758606 36738468 34498570 34049094 35348929 35658901 35848743 35958587 35758565 35078585 35078781 35058910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 08:16:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 03:16:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190818.i9J8Icu07034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190817 NVZ000-CAZ000-191415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000FT IN THE MTNS OF NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190817Z - 191415Z HVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 12Z IN THE MT. SHASTA REGION AND BY 15Z IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6 KFT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BEGINNING AROUND 17Z. SNOWFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0730Z INDICATES IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE CA COAST. RAPID ENHANCEMENT OF COMMA TAIL/WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER COASTAL NRN CA AT THE PRESENT TIME SUGGESTS STRONG MID-LEVEL UVV AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN CA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH SLY 1KM WINDS OF 60KT PER EUREKA VAD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NRN/NERN END OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION BAND/HVY SNOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD AT 25-30KT INTO THE MT SHASTA AREA BY 12Z. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY AROUND 6 KFT...HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF INITIAL PRECIP BAND WILL COMMENCE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS...AND HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 17Z OR SO. INITIAL FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD REACH THE NRN SIERRAS BY 15Z. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.23IN/HR...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOCAL 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS AROUND MT. SHASTA AND IN THE NRN SIERRAS. ..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 38842007 38952050 39652103 40322149 40882174 41052194 40992221 40882259 40842287 41232298 41592293 41842269 41922214 41882161 41672108 41222073 40362027 39641991 39131983 39021980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 08:33:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 03:33:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410190835.i9J8ZZu12748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190834 GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/SRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL/NWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 863... VALID 190834Z - 190900Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SRN TN AND NRN MS/NRN AL AND POTENTIALLY NWRN GA. SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO NRN MS/WRN TN AND NWRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN MS/SWRN TN TO MIDDLE-ERN TN. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT BEING FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34009081 35408991 35818773 35828470 34918442 34298473 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 12:07:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 07:07:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191208.i9JC8vu30134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191208 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 864... VALID 191208Z - 191415Z WW 864 CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST CURRENT WATCH WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED PAST 13Z. AT 1201Z...SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS E-W FROM N-CENTRAL MS TO FAR SERN TN. BACKBUILDING ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON WRN END OF THE LINE NEAR TUP...ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45KT SWLY 1KM FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PER VAD WIND PROFILE AT COLUMBUS AFB IN NERN MS. ADDITIONALLY...REGION IS LOCATED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND CONTINUED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED. HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75" AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO WRN FLANK OF THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2"/HR ACROSS NERN MS AND NRN AL THROUGH LATE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...MINIMAL COLD POOL STRENGTH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS...WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LESSENING THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN ROBUST SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING UPWIND OF CURRENT E-W LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34468898 34838647 35028546 34068545 33958747 33808896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 16:05:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 11:05:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191607.i9JG7Mu16599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191606 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS EWD ACROSS SRN AL/WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191606Z - 191730Z SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEEPENING ALONG HORIZONTAL ROLLS WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN LA NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MS INTO SWRN AL. HERE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z SOUNDINGS/. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE ARKLATEX...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT JAN VWP INDICATES AROUND 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MOREOVER...THE PRESENCE OF 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32569069 31868512 30488558 31249095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 18:14:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:14:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191815.i9JIFsu24640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191815 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-191945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865... VALID 191815Z - 191945Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...WITH GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN MS. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NRN MS OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEING OBSERVED WITH STORMS OVER LEE/ITAWAMBA AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES AS OF 1755Z. LOCAL AIR MASS S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PROFILER/VWP NETWORK ACROSS AR/LA/MS INDICATES THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER WITH 55-65 KT 500 MB WINDS BEING OBSERVED FROM FT. POLK LA NEWD INTO NERN MS. OKOLONA MS PROFILER CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2/ AND GIVEN THE LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. OVER AL...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS PROPAGATING SWD FROM W OF AUO TO NW OF MCN INTO W-CNTRL GA. GIVEN THE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CHARACTER OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF NERN AND E-CNTRL MS OWING TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO INSTABILITY AXIS AND MID/UPPER JET STREAKS. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34549081 33738525 32188531 32959080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 18:34:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 13:34:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191836.i9JIaQu03926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191835 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-192100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/SRN LA...SWRN MS AWAY FROM WW 866 CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191835Z - 192100Z CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FROM SABINE RIVER AREA EWD ACROSS LA TOWARD MS RIVER...W AND SW OF WW 866. PRIND MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN TOO CAPPED AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT FOR TSTMS...EXCEPT OVER COASTAL S-CENTRAL/SERN LA. SHEAR PROFILES OVER EXTREME E TX AND CENTRAL LA FAVOR SUPERCELLS WHERE STORMS CAN FORM. MANY OFFSETTING FACTORS EVIDENT ATTM...INDICATING TSTMS MAY BE ISOLATED AT BEST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN EVENT CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHERE SHEAR IS STRONGEST. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING...THOUGH MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE WARMING. THIS RESULTS IN MLCAPES APCHG 3000 J/KG FOR MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. CINH APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN 50 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF REGION ATTM...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AS WELL. HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION -- WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CU AND TCU EMBEDDED...ARE ALIGNED SW-NE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR VECTOR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VEERED/SWLY FLOW ACROSS REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE...MAKING MORE LOCALIZED HCR ENHANCEMENTS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT. DEEPER TOWERS EVIDENT IBERIA/VERMILION/IBERVILLE PARISHES MAY DEVELOP INTO TSTMS NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH LINEAR MODE LIKELY GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES AND WEAKER SHEAR OVER SERN LA. ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31208998 30328931 29609025 29539136 29869241 30099372 30619404 31389391 31819374 32369290 32749197 32799096 31769102 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 19:05:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:05:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410191906.i9JJ6su21372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191906 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191906Z - 192030Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AIR MASS S OF PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN GA HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS GRADUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD OUT OF ERN AL INTO DISCUSSION AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG SEVERAL PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT BOTH STRONGER FORCING AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS MS/AL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE W OF THE AREA. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32558500 32738460 32598355 30668351 30708500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:07:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:07:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192009.i9JK9au26232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192008 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-192115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS/AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...866... VALID 192008Z - 192115Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW 865 WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVERSPREADING THE REGION APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MARKED INCREASE IN STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ACROSS MS/AL SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 865...TO THE N OF TORNADO WATCH 866 VALID UNTIL 20/00Z. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 34539078 33718516 30598504 31219103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:10:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:10:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192011.i9JKBlu27202@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192010 TNZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192010Z - 192245Z TSTMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS WRN TN...IN NARROW WEDGE OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING LOCATED BETWEEN SFC COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/MID TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM...DYR...25 NNW HSV. CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN ROTATION AND CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SMALL TIME/SPACE SCALE OF AFFECTED AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM 20 ENE TCL...TUP...MKL. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN WHILE FRONT MOVES SEWD 10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER NERN AND EXTREME SWRN TN. SFC BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS. AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED WITH LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF SFC COLD FRONT...LIMITING WARM SECTOR SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK/BACKED FLOW ALONG AND JUST E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTS IN 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER. BLEND OF MEM/BNA VWP AND OKO PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF BOUNDARY BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG... 35568980 36138921 36468863 36398838 36208814 35918807 35478819 35068835 35008870 35058983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:10:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:10:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192012.i9JKCNu27379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192008 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-192115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS/AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 865...866... VALID 192008Z - 192115Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW 865 WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z TO ACCOMMODATE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN MS SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVERSPREADING THE REGION APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE MARKED INCREASE IN STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ACROSS MS/AL SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 865...TO THE N OF TORNADO WATCH 866 VALID UNTIL 20/00Z. ..MEAD.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 34539078 33718516 30598504 31219103  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 20:12:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 15:12:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192014.i9JKEeu28700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192010 TNZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192010Z - 192245Z TSTMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS WRN TN...IN NARROW WEDGE OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING LOCATED BETWEEN SFC COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/MID TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM...DYR...25 NNW HSV. CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY MAY TIGHTEN ROTATION AND CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SMALL TIME/SPACE SCALE OF AFFECTED AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM 20 ENE TCL...TUP...MKL. BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN WHILE FRONT MOVES SEWD 10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER NERN AND EXTREME SWRN TN. SFC BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS. AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED WITH LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF SFC COLD FRONT...LIMITING WARM SECTOR SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK/BACKED FLOW ALONG AND JUST E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTS IN 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER. BLEND OF MEM/BNA VWP AND OKO PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF BOUNDARY BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG... 35568980 36138921 36468863 36398838 36208814 35918807 35478819 35068835 35008870 35058983  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 22:47:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 17:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410192249.i9JMn4u10078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192248 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 866...867... VALID 192248Z - 200045Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WWS. NEW WW REPLACING 866 AND 867 LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/00Z. SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY...BUT THIS IS OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM...FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE TEXAS PLAINS. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE WARMING ALOFT BEGINS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. IMPULSE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION...WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR/EAST OF JACKSON BY THE 20/00-03Z TIME FRAME. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ...WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO REDUCE TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER... WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KTS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN STRONGEST CONVECTION...INCLUDING NEWEST CONVECTION NOW TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON. ..KERR.. 10/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 32978948 32918834 32308630 31468527 30748569 30858682 31248801 31298867 31598963 31869033 32129058 32759023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 02:23:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 21:23:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410200224.i9K2Owu04248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200224 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0924 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL...FL PNHDL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 868... VALID 200224Z - 200430Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW 868 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND BEGUN A GRADUAL IN DECREASE STRENGTH...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET NOW AT OR BELOW 25 KT. GIVEN WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WEAK MID-LEVEL WARMING AND FURTHER SURFACE COOLING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASE IN INTENSITY ALREADY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..KERR.. 10/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34508853 33788835 33098736 31788528 31028410 30298387 29858504 30328628 30758738 31738852 32648923 33508952 34458964 34828930 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 14:17:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 09:17:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410201419.i9KEJBu11271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201418 CAZ000-201615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA AND ADJACENT WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VALID 201418Z - 201615Z LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION -- WITH NO CG LIGHTNING EVIDENT SO FAR -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS ORANGE/SAN DIEGO COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 16Z. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES IN INITIAL BAND OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. IN WINDWARD SLOPES OF SANTA ANA...LAGUNA AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO RANGES...RATES WILL LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HOUR IN INITIAL BAND. INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES POSSIBLE THEREAFTER...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN TRAILING PRECIP REGION. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 1-1.25 INCH PW AND NEAR SATURATION THROUGH LOWEST 1-2 KM MSL. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT EXPECTED OVER NEAR-COASTAL MOUNTAINS GIVEN SLY AMBIENT WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER...VEERING TO SWLY. ALSO...PATTERN WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FAVORS ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. MODIFIED NKX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 300 J/KG SBCAPE...GIVEN OBSERVED DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F NEAR SHORE. MOST CAPE IS BELOW FREEZING LEVEL. OBSERVED/RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP ALSO INDICATE SRH 100-150 J/KG IN 0-1 KM LAYER. BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED/SHORT-LIVED FOR WW. ..EDWARDS.. 10/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 32581678 33131698 33431711 33501725 33431735 33491750 33681765 33911768 34161768 34341758 34321714 34201680 33361655 32611630 32521711 32721726 33061735 33321757 33491779 33631769 33731764 33631745 33411708 33151687 32721681 32611691 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 06:13:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 01:13:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410210615.i9L6F1u09951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210614 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210614 ALZ000-MSZ000-210715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN MS INTO WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210614Z - 210715Z A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE OVERALL THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 10Z. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MS INTO WRN AL WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS. THIS LIFT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN/ERN MS INTO FAR WRN AL. WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 15-20 KT BENEATH NWLY 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10 KFT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. 03Z RUC SUGGESTED WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BY 12Z WEAKENING WAA AND THUS DIMINISHING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 10/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... 34208997 34568942 34348767 33618683 32588655 31498715 31338792 31588895 32868968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 20:34:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 15:34:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410212035.i9LKZwu25320@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212034 AZZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212034Z - 212230Z NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN AZ THROUGH AFTERNOON. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE ORIENTED CLOUD/PRECIP BELT COVERS MUCH OF WRN AZ AND SERN CA. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EWD ATTM AND WILL ACCELERATE TO 10-15 KT EWD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED ACROSS REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS NOW JUST OFF ITS ERN EDGE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS BELT...POSING MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF LACK OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SFC COLD FRONT IS COLLOCATED WITH ERN EDGE OF THIS BAND. HOWEVER...ROUGHLY 75 NM WIDE AREA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BAND HAS EXPERIENCED HOURS OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND THEREFORE HEATED/DESTABILIZED SUBSTANTIALLY. MEANWHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE INCREASING IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SLOWLY OVER AREA. MODIFIED MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE REMOVAL OF MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER...AND PRESENT TEMPS/DEW POINTS OBSERVED JUST E OF CLOUD SHIELD...WOULD RESULT IN NEARLY UNCAPPED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH ABOUT 300-500 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY INCREASING COVERAGE/DEPTH OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDS IN HEATED CORRIDOR...AND LIKELIHOOD OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ON S AND SW FACING SLOPES. VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG -- PERHAPS TOO STRONG FOR MANY UPDRAFTS TO SURVIVE GIVEN ROUGHLY 100 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS IN TUS VWP. ANY SUSTAINED CELLS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS IN ADDITION TO THOSE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. ..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31801255 32571212 33641157 34371134 34501082 34251014 33660995 32391031 31311099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 13:08:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 08:08:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221310.i9MDAKu17786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221309 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CNTRL TX/WCNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221309Z - 221515Z ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND WCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD THIS MORNING. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM NEAR MIDLAND EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F BUT THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS ELEVATED AS THEY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF LBB ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT MAF SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32370104 32900072 35009910 36729767 37159720 36529664 35249750 33319907 32070026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 15:28:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 10:28:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221530.i9MFUKu21533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221529 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB...SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221529Z - 221730Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN-OMA THROUGH 18Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD 35-45 KT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS FCST TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC...OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS SHORT-TERM REGIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER IN DAY...PER SITUATION DESCRIBED IN SWODY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE NOW...AND FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS BASED ON FCST BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS. ROUGHLY 7-10 DEG F SFC HEATING REQUIRED FOR ACTIVITY TO BE SFC-BASED WILL BE SLOW TO MATERIALIZE BECAUSE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ABOVE CAPPING LAYER -- AT LEAST 8 DEG C/KM BETWEEN 700-850 MB...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ. AREA WAS ALONG AND JUST W OF 850 MB ISODROSOTHERMAL AXIS AT 12Z AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD INTO IA. THIS RESULTS IN MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 40 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39069818 40009791 41229763 42279622 42129501 41369519 40539566 39599630 38599721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 17:10:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 12:10:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221712.i9MHCHu09972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221711 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN WI/NWRN IL...SCENTRAL/ERN IA...AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221711Z - 221915Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO INTO ERN IA AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN IL AND SWRN WI THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION NEWD INTO NWRN IL AND SWRN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN IA AND NRN MO. IN THIS AREA...STEEPER LAPSE RATES UP TO 8 DEG C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED EML WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND ALSO DECREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS. ..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 39689394 40209482 40829474 41569402 42489299 43259185 43369083 43208993 42738980 41838954 40658993 39899138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 18:08:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 13:08:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221809.i9MI9ru05516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221808 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN TX NEAR RED RIVER...MOST OF ERN OK...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221808Z - 222015Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY WITHIN BROAD PRECIP BAND NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN/SRN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX. NRN PORTION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND/MOVE NEWD INTO PORTIONS EXTREME SERN KS AND SWRN MO AS WELL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND IS EVIDENT AT 18Z ALONG BVO-MWL LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BASED ON SFC ANALYSIS OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN MO AND NRN AR. DEEPENING MOIST LAYER AND GRADUAL SFC HEATING -- WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F -- WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST WIND PROFILES INDICATE CONTINUED REGIME OF BACKING WITH HEIGHT WITHIN 1-4 KM AGL LAYER...SUPPORTING LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. PRIND SMALL BOWS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS AND AS FOREGOING INFLOW-LAYER AIR ACQUIRES MORE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...POTENTIAL SFC GUST STRENGTH WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND NEARLY PARALLEL WITH MEAN WIND VECTOR INDICATES INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE FOR SHORT PERIODS AT BEST BEFORE MERGING WITH PRECIP FIELDS FROM ADJACENT STORMS...EXCEPT FOR ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS THAT DEVELOP. ..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33339801 33909724 34849667 35669670 35899675 36459650 36739621 37129558 37329506 37419463 37399423 37139414 36719431 36439454 35689480 34559493 34229507 33629550 33219717 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 19:02:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 14:02:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410221904.i9MJ4Cu02000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221902 NEZ000-SDZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SCENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221902Z - 222100Z ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TOWARDS SCENTRAL SD AFTER 22Z. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS THE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO NWRN NEB/SWRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAA EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PROGRESS EWD WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AID IN REMOVING EXISTING CINH OVER CENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE AREA...WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DRYING OVER CENTRAL NEB. AS MID LEVEL COOLING INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE REALIZED. STRONG FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE LINE CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS OVER NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD. ..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... 41230035 41740070 42650026 43279948 43329850 43049785 42229758 41229856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 20:54:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 15:54:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410222056.i9MKuOu29986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222055 TXZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222055Z - 222300Z TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG DECELERATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY THAT SEGMENT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SUTTON/KIMBLE COUNTIES NEWD TOWARD BOSQUE COUNTY. SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DECELERATING IN ITS EWD/SEWD MOTION AS TIME PASSES SINCE DEMISE OF CAUSATIVE CONVECTION. CLOUD BREAKS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND BOUNDARY....ALLOWING SFC TEMPS TO HEAT INTO UPPER 70S AT BWD...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING OF COLD POOL. THIS IS EVIDENT IN ISALLOBARIC TRENDS AS WELL. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALLOWING TCU/CB THAT DEVELOP ALONG IT TO REMAIN ROOTED IN INFLOW LAYER TO ITS E WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS DEEPENING ALONG AND JUST E OF BOUNDARY ATTM...WHILE RUC BASED ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE CINH UNDER 25 J/KG OVER MOST OF AREA. STORMS FORMING ALONG MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY W JCT MAY MOVE OVER COLD POOL...REDUCING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RIGHT-MOVE ALONG OR E OF BOUNDARY IS FROM JCT NEWD BASED ON ITS ORIENTATION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...DEEP-LAYER SHEARS OF 50-60 KT AND PRESENCE OF ENHANCED SHEAR/VORTICITY RELATED TO BOUNDARY SHOULD ENHANCE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. THOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY WIND/HAIL...DISCRETELY PROPAGATING CELLS ALONG SSW-NNE ORIENTED PORTION OF BOUNDARY MAY POSE TORNADO THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30560092 30680042 30889937 31529859 32219757 31969707 31059718 30499787 30029913 29950046 30220114 30450120 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 21:26:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 16:26:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410222127.i9MLRTu12843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222126 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222126Z - 230000Z RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 23Z-01Z OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA /SERN SD AND FAR NERN NEB/. STRENGTH OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISO-SCT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 23Z. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT COOLING/VERTICAL MOTION CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEB...EVIDENT BY SFC BASED CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INVOF ONL...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING AND RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE ERODED AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A LOW NEAR ONL TO JUST NORTH OF FSD...EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S THROUGH 00Z. ALTHOUGH VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AIDED IN DRYING TREND OVER NCENTRAL NEB...THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS AND STRENGTHENS. THUS AXIS OF MID/UPPER 60S DEWPTS SHOULD BE RETAINED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING MUCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INVOF OF WARM FRONT INDICATES THAT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT INDICATE THAT DURATION OF CONVECTIVE INTERACTION WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED. ..CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 42229693 42959769 43549787 44269787 44569628 44489545 43789491 43039455 42179535 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 00:44:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 19:44:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410230046.i9N0kKu21340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230044 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230044Z - 230145Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NEWD TOWARD MN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SCNTRL SD. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WAS LINKED WITH THE LOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE RED RVR VLY. TO THE SOUTH...THE COLD FRONT WAS ACCELERATING AND OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL NEB. A VERY NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/LOW. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE/RECOVER ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SERN SD...RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SERN SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN NEB. AS STRONG FORCING AIDS IN CAP REMOVAL...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN NEB. THESE TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE ENEWD. ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CELLS TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...TSTMS...LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN/CNTRL SD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD. THESE TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL...GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION. ..RACY.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... 41289828 42799840 43739902 45599748 45899677 45619589 43359553 42319546 41439599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 14:10:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 09:10:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410231411.i9NEBeu07968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231410 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-231545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI INTO NERN MN/ARROWHEAD REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231410Z - 231545Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND A WW MAY REQUIRED. ADDITIONALLY...SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXTENDED NWWD AT 1630Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED 988 MB LOW SE OF BJI WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL AND SWRN WI...WHILE COLD FRONT WAS STEADILY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MN AND IA. 12Z MPX SOUNDING /CAPTURING BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ALONG WARM FRONT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-TROUGH / WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...1000-1500 MLCAPES AND ONLY A SMALL CAP. DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR OVER WRN/CNTRL WI NWWD TO AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER NERN MN. EXPECT TSTMS CURRENTLY E OF MSP TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE THROUGH 18Z. ..MEAD.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46399348 47039278 47229120 45758905 44238838 43358892 43018950 43149044 44889275 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 18:01:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 13:01:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410231803.i9NI3Cu21423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231802 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231802Z - 232000Z LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SERN AR/NRN LA IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OK/NRN TX. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE IN THIS REGION OF STRONGEST CONVERGENCE INTENSIFYING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THIS LINE WILL AID IN A GREATER THREAT FOR A MORE DISCRETE CELL TYPE WITH TIME. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION THE AIRMASS WAS RECOVERING FROM EARLIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH UPPER 70S TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LATITUDE OF GREENWOOD. CONTINUED WARMING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. DESPITE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ...WEAKENING/VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 31709129 32169258 32639277 34049211 34869061 35038928 34148851 32008872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:49:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:49:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232150.i9NLolu01791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232149 INZ000-ILZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL IL AND WCENTRAL/ SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232149Z - 232345Z SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN DECREASING THREAT AFTER 00Z. LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN/ERN IL AND MINIMAL CINH FROM FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. LEADING EDGE OF MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7 DEG C/KM OVER WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38078890 38528931 38778924 39648828 39988799 40368733 40218704 39758683 38848706 38298780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:52:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:52:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232153.i9NLrxu02856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232152 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232152Z - 232345Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS. EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT SUGGEST A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS NRN MS. SOME INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM AND AREAS OF CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 700 J/KG. STRONG ROTATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DIMINISHES AND ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32979122 34778908 34598807 33418839 32309111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:52:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:52:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232154.i9NLsNu02946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232149 INZ000-ILZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL IL AND WCENTRAL/ SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232149Z - 232345Z SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN DECREASING THREAT AFTER 00Z. LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN/ERN IL AND MINIMAL CINH FROM FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. LEADING EDGE OF MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7 DEG C/KM OVER WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38078890 38528931 38778924 39648828 39988799 40368733 40218704 39758683 38848706 38298780  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 21:53:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 16:53:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410232155.i9NLt4u03190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232152 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232152Z - 232345Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS. EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT SUGGEST A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS NRN MS. SOME INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM AND AREAS OF CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 700 J/KG. STRONG ROTATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DIMINISHES AND ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 32979122 34778908 34598807 33418839 32309111  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 19:37:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 14:37:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410241939.i9OJd2u21804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241938 TXZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241938Z - 242115Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW. SUBTROPICAL FLOW OF MID/HIGH MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEWD INTO NRN TX. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND MAY BE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX. WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE BIG BEND NEWD INTO NRN TX AND CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LIFT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH 40 KT SWLY WINDS ARE LOCATED AROUND 20K FEET...WINDS BELOW THIS LEVEL ARE WEAK AND RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS...THOUGH THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT INDICATES THE HAIL THREAT IS LOW. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER HIGH LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS..WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL THREATS. ..IMY.. 10/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 29310080 31249980 32149842 32039742 31319647 29459853 28440025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 17:40:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 12:40:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410261741.i9QHfcu06922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261740 CAZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTION OF THE SRN SIERRA MOUNTAINS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261740Z - 262045Z SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 IN/HOUR BY 18 OVER ERN MADERA/ NERN FRESNO COUNTIES...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF ERN FRESNO COUNTY BY 21Z. SNOW LEVELS OVER THESE AREAS WILL INITIALLY BE AT 6000-7000 FEET...BEFORE FALLING BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5500 FEET. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A 90 MILE WIDE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST TO WRN NV. THIS CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A WLY 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST ATTM...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ALONG AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST. TVL WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE NRN PORTION OF THIS CLOUD BAND HAS REPORTED MAINLY HEAVY SNOW SINCE 14Z WITH RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD TODAY...850-700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SWLY ACROSS ERN MADERA/ERN FRESNO COUNTIES...RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT/SNOWFALL RATES. ..PETERS.. 10/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX... 36771893 37231924 37391941 37731956 37911938 38001922 37771900 37181854 36801835 36771877 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 22:21:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 17:21:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410262222.i9QMMxu23726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262221 KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262221Z - 270015Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS EXTREME SERN MO...SRN IL INTO EXTREME WRN KY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER SCOTT COUNTY IN EXTREME SERN MO IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 25 KT. THIS STORM IS MOVING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH 0-1 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100 TO 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST AS THE STORM CONTINUES ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO EXTREME SRN IL AND SWRN KY NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE THE STORM EVENTUALLY CROSSES INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 10/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH... 37648941 37098772 36688782 36758861 36898934 37039019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 23:30:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 18:30:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410272331.i9RNVJu26368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272330 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-280130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN NM / WRN PANHANDLES / SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272330Z - 280130Z A FEW SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION...THOUGH GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID 70S ACROSS ERN NM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 HAS RESULTED IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO ADJACENT W TX. SURFACE OBS -- ALONG WITH PROFILER / VWP DATA -- ALSO SHOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SELY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE / TX SOUTH PLAINS. RESULTING WEAK CONVERGENCE / UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ABOVE THE BACKING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...MODERATE / DIFFLUENT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED. RESULTING 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ALL OF WHICH SUGGEST AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FROM THE SSE THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AREAS WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS -- LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL HAIL. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS -- WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING. ..GOSS.. 10/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 35430496 36520425 37590293 37340185 35810146 33930175 33540301 33240443 33590533 34840527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 17:39:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 12:39:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410291740.i9THeSu24277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291739 MOZ000-KSZ000-292015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291739Z - 292015Z CHANCES FOR TSTM INITIATION APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH IS BEING ANTICIPATED. STRONG UPPER TROUGH...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD...AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE FRONT/DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NWRN/CNTRL KS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WAS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SERN KS AND SWRN MO ATTM. CU FIELD OVER THIS AREA HAS ALSO BEEN THICKENING. VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND WITHIN THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. LATEST SREF AND RUC FCSTS SUGGEST THAT TSTM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NWRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS. AS FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FORCED ASCENT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING AND RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITY OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND REMAINS DISCRETE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC WOULD SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN RAPID NEWD CELL MOTION OF UP TO 50KT. THEREFORE...ONCE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD OVER A LARGE AREA IN RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37099567 37039656 37499685 38249656 39459545 40189491 40389407 40119358 39559358 37599483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 19:12:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 14:12:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410291913.i9TJDqV10519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291912 IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291912Z - 292145Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MO RIVER...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN...IA...AND PERHAPS NRN MO...WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS MO/IA AND SRN MN CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED STEADILY EWD ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND SERN SD...AND TRAILS SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS. DEEPER MIXING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WEST OF THE MO RIVER. HOWEVER...MODEST HEATING AND GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS INTO IA/MN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING MLCAPE IN THESE AREAS. REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE OVERCOME FROM MO NWD ACROSS IA AS INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS INTO THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21-00Z. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS ENEWD FROM NWRN KS INTO IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WHILE STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME LINEARLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD TAKE ON THE FORM OF VERY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS PARTS FROM MO INTO IA...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION MERGES INTO LARGER SQUALL LINE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... 40079465 40489546 41219566 42339541 43269535 43899520 44029388 43319302 42909260 41939261 41179262 40329343 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 19:57:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 14:57:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410291958.i9TJwXV01718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291957 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291957 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...SERN ND...CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291957Z - 292230Z TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN AS DEEPENING CYCLONE DEVELOPS ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE FORCED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ASSIST PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WARM AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BEING LIFTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL FUEL STOUT UPDRAFTS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE WARM SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO SRN MN...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES AN EARLIER TREND OF SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION AND STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL PERSIST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK INTO CNTRL MN. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MN AS THIS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46249362 45769620 45219853 45930030 46699942 47489532 47719401 47239249 46439254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 20:19:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 15:19:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292020.i9TKKVV14698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292019 WIZ000-MNZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MN INTO W-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292019Z - 292215Z SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM S-CENTRAL MN EWD INTO W-CENTRAL WI BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AT 20Z...WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 990MB SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD EWD TO 25NW STC TO 50S DLH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING AS EXIT REGION OF 80-90KT 500MB JET ROTATES NEWD INTO SERN MN BY 30/00Z. ENHANCED FIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CU EXTENDING FROM SWRN MN SSWWD INTO NERN KS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER PVA...AND NRN FRINGE OF THIS FORCING WILL ALSO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS FROM VIS IMAGERY THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EVOLVE OUT THIS ENHANCED CU FIELD THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM FRONT HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WELL IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO VERY STRONG...WITH STRONGEST VEERING/SRH LIKELY NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..BANACOS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45909106 46059189 46009398 45889459 43639410 43699280 43749172 44439103 44949085 45369080 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 22:23:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 17:23:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292224.i9TMOrV07978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292224 IAZ000-MOZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869... VALID 292224Z - 300000Z LINE OF STORMS IS NOW BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED / INTENSE ACROSS IA. SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- CONTINUES. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINE OF STORMS WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 30 NW MCW TO 50 ESE OMA INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES...WITH OTHER / ISOLATED STORMS INCREASING AHEAD OF LINE. ISOLATED STORM NOW MOVING INTO CLARKE COUNTY HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH / DRYLINE ACROSS W CENTRAL IA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND INTO CENTRAL IA HAVE INCREASED 2-3 DEGREES F OVER THE PAST HOUR. DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS HAD REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK UP TO THIS POINT -- APPARENTLY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE / INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...THUS EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE ERN HALF OF IA. ..GOSS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... 43399390 43479221 40599254 40589520 42719396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 22:46:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 17:46:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292248.i9TMmRV15815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292246 WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-300015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / ERN IA / WRN WI / FAR NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292246Z - 300015Z STORMS NOW MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND ERN MN WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER WITH TIME...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS NOW INDICATED. AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL INTENSIFY...AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. THOUGH MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE NOW ACROSS ERN MN / CENTRAL IA...STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. ..GOSS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46349211 46599031 46258932 43198924 40659149 40689244 43549201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 23:10:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 18:10:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292311.i9TNBAV25170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292310 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN / WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 292310Z - 300045Z SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF E CENTRAL AND SERN MN. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 30 E MKT SWD INTO IA...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE FROM THE MSP AREA NWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED / INTENSE WITH TIME AS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACH. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED E OF ONGOING STORMS AND S OF WARM FRONT -- LYING ROUGHLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF WW -- ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..GOSS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46369477 46389207 43389194 43419351 44789376 45409384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 23:16:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 18:16:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410292317.i9TNHOV27216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292316 ILZ000-MOZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292316Z - 300115Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL IL. CELLS WILL TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NEWD AT 35-40KT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM BMI SWWD TO JUST WEST AND NW OF STL. CELLS HAVE FORMED IN BROAD REGION OF DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW...WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH NERN EXTENT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD BAND WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN AR NEWD INTO W-CENTRAL IL. LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...ILX VAD INDICATES 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS EVENING LESSENS INSTABILITY. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TIED TO STRONG FORCING ACROSS IA AND MO TRACKS EWD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ..BANACOS.. 10/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39919114 41428897 41598850 41418791 40758766 40258763 39848789 39088854 38598958 38488997 38619002 38839013 39159055 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 00:05:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 19:05:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300006.i9U06wV11360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300005 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-300130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO / SERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871... VALID 300005Z - 300130Z SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MO AND FAR SERN KS. RADAR LOOP SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG DRYLINE / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SRN IA / N CENTRAL MO SSWWD INTO FAR SERN KS / ERN OK. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH 50O TO 100 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH EAX /PLEASANT HILL MO/ WSR-88D VWP AND LATHROP MO PROFILER INDICATING 40 TO 50 KT SSWLY FLOW AT 1 KM INCREASING TO SWLY AT 70 KT AT 4 KM. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS WITHIN BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE...AND SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...ICT... 40619371 40599142 36999325 37139532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 00:30:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 19:30:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300031.i9U0V1V19477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300030 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-300130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MN / PARTS OF WRN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 870... VALID 300030Z - 300130Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS WW. AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWPS -- MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS SERN MN...WHILE MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL MN FROM ROUGHLY PINE COUNTY NWD. CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE WW 870 WITHIN THE HOUR...WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AND THE REMAINDER MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO WW 873. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE LAGGING THE LINE OF STORMS BY ONLY ABOUT A COUNTY OR TWO...AND THUS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST BEHIND THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WW 870 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED 30/02Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46389347 46349201 43379202 43539248 44759243 45599290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:05:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:05:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300106.i9U16SV30101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300105 IAZ000-MOZ000-300200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND INTO ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 869... VALID 300105Z - 300200Z LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 35 SSE RST TO 20 ENE LWD CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THOUGH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE ATTM...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS. WITH THIS LINE EXPECTED TO VACATE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WW 869 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 30/02Z. MEANWHILE...SECOND BAND OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS INDICATED E OF MAIN LINE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SERN IA -- INCLUDING SERN PORTIONS OF WW 869. SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...AS THEY ALSO SHIFT EWD INTO WW 873 OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... 43379239 43409216 40579250 40599375 41889293 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:31:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:31:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300132.i9U1WtV06014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300131 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0831 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / SWRN MO / WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 872... VALID 300131Z - 300300Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW ATTM. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS WW AS STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE LINEARLY ORIENTED WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY COOL / STABILIZE ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO SWRN MO / WRN AR...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS PER LATEST RADAR LOOPS. EVENING RAOBS FROM BOTH LIT AND SGF SUGGEST THAT A FEW DEGREES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING COMBINED WITH THE OBSERVED WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME OF ONGOING CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SUGGEST THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 37089402 37059321 33919442 33959643 34619623 36389497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 02:02:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 21:02:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300203.i9U23cV15059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300202 WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-300330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI / ERN IA / NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873... VALID 300202Z - 300330Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA. LINE OF STRONG / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS / LEWPS CONTINUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...EXTENDING N-S ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW FROM NWRN WI SWD TO NERN MO ATTM. VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH 50 TO 80 KT FLOW INDICATED BETWEEN 1 KM AND 6 KM ACCORDING TO AREA VWP / PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN SD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT -- NOW MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THREAT MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS / STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 46449206 46408903 40338952 40309232 41679230 44599110 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 02:14:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 21:14:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300215.i9U2FEV18573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300214 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871... VALID 300214Z - 300245Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WW AS AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. THOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST LOCALLY BEYOND THE 30/03Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 871...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT 25 KT ACROSS MO ATTM...EXTENDING FROM 40 NNW IRK SSWWD TO 20 NE CNU. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW ATTM...THOUGH STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL TENDENCY TO BECOME WEAKER / MORE DISORGANIZED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY STABILIZE. NONETHELESS...MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINING AROUND 500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THOUGH A LIMITED THREAT MAY CONTINUE BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF WW 871...WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 37129404 39339320 40649220 40639136 37119313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 03:22:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 22:22:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300324.i9U3O0V07836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300323 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 872... VALID 300323Z - 300430Z TORNADO WATCH 872 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z. LINEAR TSTM CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS NW AR/SE OK CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR. REGION IS WELL REMOVED FROM UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...ONLY AN ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST REMAINS IN THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THIS TREND...WW 872 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. ..GUYER.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 33979640 34669557 36599401 37089306 33939430 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 03:45:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 22:45:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300346.i9U3kbV13971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300345 WIZ000-ILZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-300445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 873... VALID 300345Z - 300445Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW 873. NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WI AND NRN IL. LINE OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWPS -- CONTINUES SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WW ATTM. INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS / BOWS ARE MOVING NEWD AT NEAR 50 KT...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF OVERALL LINE MOTION SHOWS STORMS EXITING WW BETWEEN 30/0430 AND 05Z. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF LINE...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ INDICATED ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF WI INTO NRN IL. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...IS APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST BEYOND 30/05Z. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 873. ..GOSS.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 46408993 46408905 45058782 42588784 41288767 40939073 42198995 43369033 45118985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 06:02:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 01:02:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410300603.i9U63dV22852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300602 MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-300730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...EXTREME NWRN/NRN IND...ERN WI AND LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 874... VALID 300602Z - 300730Z VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED EWD INTO LOWER MI OR NRN IND. LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS ERN WI INTO CNTRL IL WAS MOVING NEWD AT 35-40 KTS AND WILL BE EXITING THE WW BETWEEN 07-08Z...THEN INTO LOWER MI AND NRN IND THEREAFTER. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS WEAKLY BUOYANT WITH MLCAPES OF 500-750 J/KG. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS THEY CROSS THE CHICAGO/LAKE MICHIGAN REGIONS. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING. ..RACY.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41008895 43228902 45698841 45698698 45738520 43158506 40968585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 19:16:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 14:16:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410301917.i9UJHfV06683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301916 TXZ000-302145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301916Z - 302145Z ELEVATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL INTO LATE AFTERNOON. NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT BISECTS CNTRL TX FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE PINEY WOODS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WAS BEING DRAWN NWWD ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER BAJA/NWRN MEXICO. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING MAINTAINED BY MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING NORTH OF THE FRONT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING INVERSION... EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30KT WILL SUSTAIN/ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND AID IN HAIL PRODUCTION. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA. ..CARBIN.. 10/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30720051 29810120 30240199 31050170 31720137 32930040 33309984 33459930 33479871 33249818 31899868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 18:47:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 13:47:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200410311848.i9VImOV07630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311847 TXZ000-312045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311847Z - 312045Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HILL COUNTRY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I10...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR CONCHO COUNTY IN CNTRL TX. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING AROUND THIS FEATURE AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL FCSTS OF INCREASING UVV AND QPF. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND EAST OF THE SW/NE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SUGGESTING AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RESPONDED WITH LATEST VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JCT TO FTW. AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A FEW CELLS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND INCREASING AIRMASS INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY FURTHER LEND SUPPORT TO FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AT PRESENT...COULD INCREASE IF FRONTAL WAVE INTENSIFIES COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE. ..CARBIN.. 10/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 32729738 32029749 31429797 30129936 29870023 30570072 32040011 33099914 33499880 33589818 33559769 33379742 33059735 WWWW