[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302350 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI/NRN IL/NRN IN/LOWER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 302350Z - 010545Z

RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NRN IN AND
THE LOWER PENINSULA THROUGH MID EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY INCREASE
TO 1 IN/HOUR IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW NEAR EVANSVILLE WITH BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA/ERN KS/SW OK PER LATEST WV IMAGERY
AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES NEWD NEAR TOLEDO BY 01/06Z. SFC
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE FROM MLI/JVL. 
HOWEVER...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM UIN TO VYS/ARR WHERE A
CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP IS OCCURRING ATTM.

POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL IL
SPREADING INTO THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO BY 03Z. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF N/NERN IL THIS
EVENING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER
06Z...AS THE MAIN SNOW BANDS SPREAD INTO NRN IN AND EVENTUALLY THE
SRN LOWER PENINSULA.

..TAYLOR.. 11/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

43028246 40618523 39348844 39909004 41219028 42658972
44358387 44068251 43418227 

WWWW