[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290029 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...SERN CO...WRN KS...AND THE OK/NRN TX
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 290029Z - 290630Z

MDT-HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WRN KS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING/DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS.
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION OF SERN CO WITH AROUND 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
OVER SWRN KS.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NEB/IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED UPPER ASCENT THROUGH THE
EVENING. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SERN
CO/SWRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES
THROUGH 06Z. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/KS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HVY SNOW SO FAR ACROSS WRN KS. HOWEVER...MDT-STRONG SLOPED ASCENT IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LACK OF
SATURATION ABOVE -10 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SWRN KS AND
LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM WILL
FAVOR THE PTYPE AS FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

A LEAD VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL CO/NWRN NM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SERN CO AROUND 06Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
RESPOND AND BECOME MORE NELY ACROSS SERN CO AND FAVOR INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SNOWFALL RATES INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
NRN RATON RIDGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD...MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL AID IN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SNOW FARTHER EAST INTO SWRN KS. INCREASING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM SERN CO INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW AROUND 06Z.

..CROSBIE.. 11/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

37989954 36910067 36210137 35750236 35840351 36180437
36620495 37650563 38450565 38990534 38520394 37900330
38410242 39130203 39750032 39599939 

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