[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241616 
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-241845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN
IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241616Z - 241845Z

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN ARC FROM WRN TN NNEWD OVER EXTREME WRN
NY...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS EXTREME SRN IL.  SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
BOWS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AMY SUSTAINED CONVECTION.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN BAND OF TCU INDICATED ON VIS IMAGERY
OVER NRN MS...EXTENDING FROM YALOBUSHA TO MARSHALL COUNTIES AS OF
16Z...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAKER ON THIS ARA THAN OVER
KY/TN/IL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW -- 993 MB -- INVOF CGI...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN-MOST IL AND SRN INDIANA THROUGH
AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW
IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. 
SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED JUST N OF OH RIVER OVER IL/INDIANA
ATTM...SHOULD LIFT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3 KM SRH
300-500 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT...250-400 J/KG OVER TN/KY WARM
SECTORS...AND DECREASING SWD INTO MS WHERE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE WLY
COMPONENT.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM
VALUES 70-80 KT BEING COMMON.  GIVEN STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SERN MO UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT BUOYANCY TO INCREASE NOW THAT
DIABATIC HEATING IS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LOW 60S
SFC DEW POINTS.  MLCAPE -- NOW GENERALLY UNDER 250 J/KG -- SHOULD
INCREASE TO 500-800 J/KG BY AROUND 19Z...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AMIDST SUCH STRONG SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34148967 35288960 37058926 37668882 38048816 38168761
37918724 37348724 36348758 34998815 34758832 34418866
34278905 

WWWW