[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241250 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CENTRAL IL...AND NWRN IND

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 241250Z - 241745Z

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM NERN MO THROUGH NWRN IND. SEVERAL HOURS OF HVY WET
SNOW WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
STRONGEST FORCING MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL MO TOWARD CENTRAL IL/NWRN
IND THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AT 1245Z...BROAD MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM KANSAS
CITY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA IN NWRN QUADRANT OF
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER NRN AR. PRECIPITATION ZONE
IS MARKED BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 750-600MB LAYER NEAR NRN EDGE
OF WARM ADVECTION AREA. STRONGEST UVV CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MO...WHERE COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE/UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER UVV NORTH OF LOW CENTER. STRONGEST UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE PROPAGATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL BY 18Z AND
SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING PRECIP RATES. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE
PRESENTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...DEEP LIFT SHOULD INDUCE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AS LOW DEEPENS
TO 990MB BY 21Z OVER SRN IND...SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH INCREASING CAA
IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/NWRN IND. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH AS STRONG
FORCING MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD
SURFACES... HOWEVER...HIGH WATER CONTENT OF SNOW MAY POSE A HAZARD
TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HVY SNOW
IS REALIZED AS STRONGEST FORCING MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL MO INTO
CENTRAL IL BY 18Z...AND INTO NWRN IND BY 20Z. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST LEFT OF 700MB LOW TRACK AS
PORTRAYED BY 06Z ETA THROUGH CENTRAL IL INTO NWRN IND THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

40409133 40968991 41418849 41728722 41758643 41698606
41238639 40818722 39898929 39598995 39289084 39129125
38999167 39149217 39409247 39739261 

WWWW