[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240516 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-240715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW...CNTRL THRU N CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891...

VALID 240516Z - 240715Z

CONTINUE WW 891.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW
TORNADO WATCH ACROSS ALABAMA...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS STRENGTHENING OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION.  LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF
MOBILE AL INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF
BIRMINGHAM.  SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THIS AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.

CORRESPONDING TO THIS DESTABILIZATION...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS ONGOING...AND FORCING COULD SUPPORT MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH
INCREASING MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATER
TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE IN WARM
SECTOR...SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

..KERR.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

31108865 32158841 33248779 34168731 34478663 34008612
33638626 32978646 32158689 31198731 30248825 

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