[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231848 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL THROUGH NERN TX...NRN/WRN
LA...SERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883...884...

VALID 231848Z - 232045Z

PERSISTENT/TORNADIC TSTM WITH HYBRID OF HP SUPERCELL AND BOW
CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY ACROSS PORTIONS
LEON/MADISON/HOUSTON COUNTIES OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...MAINTAINING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC WARM FRONT. THIS STORM ALSO IS LOCATED NEAR SFC
MESOLOW...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER.

TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF WWS AS
WELL.  WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM FREESTONE COUNTY GENERALLY
EWD ACROSS NACOGDOCHES AREA INTO CENTRAL LA -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT NWD ACROSS NE TX AND ALLOW SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO SPREAD INTO
ARKLATEX REGION.  AS A RESULT...WWS MAY NEED REPLACEMENT WITHIN NEXT
COUPLE HOURS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NRN LA AND PERHAPS SRN AR.  LARGE
MASS OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE TX MAY RESTRICT FURTHER
SFC DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON
ALREADY ACROSS THIS REGION BASED ON 18Z SHV/LCH/CRP RAOBS AND
RUC/ETA-KF MODEL SOUNDINGS.  EXPECT KINEMATIC WEAKNESSES IN 2-6 KM
AGL PORTION OF HODOGRAPH TO GO AWAY AS LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
IN RESPONSE TO APCHG UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS
OVER CENTRAL/NERN TX.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...JAN...LCH...CRP...

29519646 29529912 33349610 33309335 

28109478 28159766 32049458 32079161 

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