[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222131 
NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-230000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN NM...FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222131Z - 230000Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  A FEW
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL...AND A FEW OF THESE MAY REACH
MINIMAL SEVERE CRITERIA.  A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING OVER THE AREA AND CLUSTERS
OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COMING OUT OF MEXICO. 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND THEREFORE INCREASE
INSTABILITY. A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE HELP
OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET.  DEGREE
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

..JEWELL.. 11/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

31370956 32550988 33401010 33660911 33650791 33180565
32910510 32310487 31270526 30940546 31420610 31730641
31770818 31340822 

WWWW