[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200526 
TXZ000-200730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200526Z - 200730Z

A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
INLAND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE STORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SEEN ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN
MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS MOVING ACROSS
SCNTRL TX AND THIS IS RESULTING IN SFC PRESSURE FALLS. VAD WIND
PROFILES IN THE HOUSTON AREA SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS THE CELLS TRACK NEWD. THIS SHOULD
KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ROTATING
CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY.

..BROYLES.. 11/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

28219685 28439710 28579719 29059700 29479666 29649629
29829608 30069540 30119483 30019465 29719449 29349457
28929486 28419582 

WWWW