From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 00:18:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 19:18:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411010019.iA10JCV02272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010018 TXZ000-OKZ000-010215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010018Z - 010215Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FROM GRAYSON/COOKE/DENTON COUNTIES SWD ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH METROPLEX TO NEAR ACT AND JCT. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL/BRIEF TO WARRANT WW...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SFC DATA FOR ANALYSIS REMAINS VERY LIMITED DUE TO FAA COMMS OUTAGE -- PER LATEST SDM MESSAGES. HOWEVER AVAILABLE DFW/NFW AND OK MESONET OBS...COMBINED WITH FORMER FINE LINE IN REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES...SUGGEST WSW-ENE ORIENTED BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NERN PARKER...NRN TARRANT...SERN DENTON AND W-CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTIES. ANY CELLS WHICH CROSS THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY THEIR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITH BRIEF TORNADO A SMALL POSSIBILITY. OTHER CELLS IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR -- BETWEEN DAL-ACT AS OF 00Z -- MAY ROTATE AS WELL AS THEY MOVES NNEWD TOWARD ERN PORTIONS METROPLEX. FWD VWP HODOGRAPH MODIFIED FOR DFW SFC WIND YIELDS AROUND 200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER...WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY LESS IN FWD RAOB. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN WEAK...UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND RESIDUAL DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY. 00Z FWD RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER METROPLEX AND SWD THROUGH ACT AREA...DECREASING NWD INTO LOWER THETAE AIR MASS NEAR RED RIVER. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 31019867 32239842 32659788 33139741 33779713 33749633 33509602 32689616 31659679 30979774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 01:19:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 20:19:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411010120.iA11KTV23424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010119 COZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PALMER RIDGE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF E-CENTRAL CO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 010119Z - 010545Z HVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 04-09Z ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT AREAS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH RATES OF 1"/HR LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING NNWLY SURFACE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. DEEP THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CO TONIGHT WHILE DIGGING SWD ACROSS NM IN RESPONSE TO UPWIND 80-90KT 500MB JET MOVING FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO AZ THIS EVENING. RECENT ETA RUNS INDICATE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM. LEE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NM IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE/CLOUD BAND ON IR IMAGERY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AROUND 06Z AND LIKELY INTENSIFY AS DIVERGENCE INCREASES ALOFT. CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL PROFILES FOR SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 05-06Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER OF 2.5 KFT BETWEEN 05-09Z WITHIN STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REGION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS FOR SNOW GROWTH. THE 12/18Z ETA RUNS AND 21Z RUC DEPICT HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT NEAR O.1" ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DEN/LIC WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO PERIODS OF HVY SNOW AND 1"/HR ACCUMULATIONS ONCE GROUND TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY COOL. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN LEE CYCLONE AND BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG NLY WIND GUSTS ALONG THE PALMER RIDGE TO 40KT AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES SWD AND PRECIP RATES LESSEN TOWARD 09Z. ..BANACOS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 39380509 39890497 40090475 40130427 40050359 39360340 39160341 38930348 38750367 38700397 38680479 38730507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 11:40:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 06:40:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011141.iA1BfFV09080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011140 LAZ000-TXZ000-011245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011140Z - 011245Z MARGINAL THREATS FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX. LINE OF TSTMS HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE SWWD TO JUST WEST OF ANGLETON. THESE TSTMS WERE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HOUSTON RADAR SHOWS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ACCELERATING EWD FROM LARGE PCPN SHIELD LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL TX. GIVEN STORM MOTION NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL SHORTLY BE UNDERCUT. THUS...DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /0-1KM SRH 110-150 M2/S2/ FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME. AGGREGATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE BASED WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY. BUT...THE MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE UNDERCUT BY THE APPROACHING COLD POOL...LEAVING HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..RACY.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28979572 30129570 31569528 31539384 29249378 28399542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 15:17:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 10:17:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011518.iA1FIRV12430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011517 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011517 ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-011715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AR...NW LA...SE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011517Z - 011715Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CELLS TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AR...NW LA AND SE MO. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX EXTENDING NWD THROUGH WRN AR WITH STRONG STORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS WHY THERE IS NOT MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM LITTLE ROCK CURRENTLY SHOW VERY STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 40 KT. THIS IS DUE TO THE BACKED SSELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS STRONG SHEAR COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. IN ADDITION...THE FAST STORM MOTION TO THE NNE OF 40 TO 45 KT WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV... 31589401 33719316 36009220 37489148 37649085 37299057 36189080 35209130 31929282 31189348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 17:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 12:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011759.iA1HxdV16110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011758 NMZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL NM CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 011758Z - 012230Z SNOW INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NM WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1"/HR ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z FROM TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES SSWWD THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. A VERY COLD/SHARP 500MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN MT SWWD THRU ERN AZ/WRN NM THIS MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN NM. THIS CLOSED CENTER WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO/FAR WRN TX BY 02/00Z AS STRONG UPWIND JET STREAK /85KT 500MB WIND AT FGZ PER MORNING RAOB/ RESULTS IN FURTHER DIGGING OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT INCREASED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NM AT 17Z. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL PLUME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL NOT BE TAPPED...FOCUSED ASCENT THROUGH 700MB DEFORMATION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF 60KT NLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVIDENT ON PUB VAD IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD INTO E-CENTRAL NM WITH TIME WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COOL. SURFACE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 39KT AT CAO AND RTN PER 17Z OBS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 03Z. STRONGEST UVV IS EXPECTED DURING 21-03Z DURING WHICH TIME 1"/HR SNOW RATES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. BASED ON 700MB ETA FORECAST...SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO MTNS AS 60-70KT SPEED MAX BUILDS SWD INTO NM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES. ..BANACOS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 35180559 35280395 35130373 34280385 33590436 32470564 33330664 34180658 35030628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 19:11:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 14:11:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011912.iA1JCeV28095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011911 ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NCNTRL LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875... VALID 011911Z - 012045Z A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 875. A REPLACEMENT WILL BE CONSIDERED ONCE THE CURRENT WATCH NEARS EXPIRATION AT 21Z. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO NNE FROM NCNTRL LA TO SE MO WITH STRONG CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH SOME BOWING IN THE LINE ACROSS NRN LA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET ORGANIZING AT 700 MB JUST BEHIND THE LINE AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE ACCELERATION OF THE LINE TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS NE LA WHERE A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 31199308 31879300 32959262 34009221 35259163 35349064 33919104 31669181 31169204 31069261 31149314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 20:25:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 15:25:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411012026.iA1KQPV06874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012025 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012025Z - 012200Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS ACROSS SRN IL AND SE MO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH A FEW ROTATING CELLS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING SE OF ST LOUIS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS RELATIVELY STRONG IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVER ERN MO AND SW IL AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED NEAR THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING CELLS ARE MOVING TO THE NE AROUND 40 KTS. ..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 39028815 37798840 36098937 35959018 36409001 37258942 38668904 39638886 39508815 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 23:57:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 18:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411012358.iA1NwPV15178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012357 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...SERN AR...NWRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876... VALID 012357Z - 020200Z LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 2345Z FROM WRN TIP KY SSWWD ACROSS MEM METRO THEN TO NEAR GLH...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS EVENING. TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND THREATS ARE LIKEWISE DIMINISHING BUT...GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND UNTIL WW EXPIRES OR CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF WW. PRE-STORM AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OVER MS PORTION WW WHERE RESIDUAL DIABATIC HEATING -- TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S F -- CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 300-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED CELLS...WITH UP TO ABOUT 400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AS DERIVED FROM MEM VWP HODOGRAPH. BAND OF PRECIP HAS PASSED ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL AND SERN AR...SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZING AIR MASS AND REDUCING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. ACCORDINGLY WW CAN BE CLEARED AWAY W OF MS RIVER...WHEREVER IT HAS NOT BEEN DISCONTINUED LOCALLY ALREADY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36469037 36468892 33618998 33629138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 00:34:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 19:34:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020035.iA20ZSV30794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020034 MSZ000-LAZ000-020230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020034Z - 020230Z MARGINAL TORNADO AND STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF FRONT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CALDWELL PARISH SWWD ACROSS AEX/LCH AREAS...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MAINLY LINEAR IN MODE BUT WITH BRIEF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. SMALL DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN LA ARE IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR I-10...DECREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NERN LA. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME...CENTRAL/SRN LA WILL REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F...LOW LCL AND ONLY SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AT SFC. PROFILER AND SOUNDING WINDS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...INCREASING NWD AS BUOYANCY DECREASES...AND AROUND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29789331 30399303 32069227 32649190 32879142 32979115 32979084 32759066 32439066 32009084 31009121 29839181 29599197 29459216 29329248 29389307 29509351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 00:55:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 19:55:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020055.iA20tqV06564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020054 TXZ000-OKZ000-020330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020054Z - 020330Z TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SPS/MWL AREAS THEN SSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TSTMS ARE FORMING AS ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- DPVA AHEAD OF ELP-AREA MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- IMPINGES UPON SFC WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY PRIOR FROPA AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BUT STILL CONTAINS SUFFICIENT THETAE TO SUPPORT TSTMS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F. FWD RAOB APPEARS TO BE JUST E OF COOLING ALOFT...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS JUST W-SW OF THERE SHOW 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS BUT 80-90 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY 70-80 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX-- WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. ALTHOUGH DRT RAOB CONTAINED APPARENTLY SPURIOUS SUPERADIABATIC LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 830-930 MB...ADJUSTMENT STILL INDICATES THAT LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT HAS REACHED THAT FAR SE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 30579911 31919872 33049850 34349839 34479776 34099686 33349667 32509662 31489695 30419845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 03:37:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 22:37:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020338.iA23c7V13444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020337 LAZ000-TXZ000-020630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COAST SWWD TO PORTIONS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 020337Z - 020630Z HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASING ATTM OVER HOU AREA...AND SHOULD SHIFT/EXPAND EWD ALONG MID/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN ONE MORE NE-SW BANDS MAY PRODUCE 1.5-2.5 INCH/HOUR RATES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS. A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST WHERE INFLOW LAYER IS DEEPEST IN PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MS SWWD ACROSS SWRN LA THEN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM OFFSHORE GLS. FRONT HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM THERE SWWD TO MATAGORDA/CORPUS CHRISTI BAYS...AND MAY BE RETREATING NWD TOWARD SOME OF GLS-PSX COASTAL AREA BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT THOSE STATIONS. BOUNDARY STILL IS MOVING SWD AS COLD FRONT ACROSS DEEP S TX COUNTIES OF ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS. THIS SWRN FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE REINFORCED IN 3-4 HOURS BY OUTFLOW-REINFORCED ARCTIC FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD THROUGH SAT/COT AREAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST PW 1-1.25 INCH OVER MIDDLE TX COAST...AND 1.75-2 INCHES FROM HOU-CRP LINE EWD. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD WITH BANDS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOES THAT LOCALLY EXACERBATES HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE FAVOR ROTATING STORMS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND RISK OF OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS NEAR GULF COAST AREA FRONT. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE N OF THAT FRONT IN ZONE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF TX COASTAL PLAIN. ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29029741 29749643 30579504 30709377 30549353 30619250 30129315 29789288 29439320 29229337 29109379 28889421 28739452 28489516 28309605 27819681 26809919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 09:12:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 04:12:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020912.iA29CwV15205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020912 TXZ000-NMZ000-021315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE THROUGH E CNTRL NM CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020912Z - 021315Z SNOWFALL WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM THROUGH 15Z. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WAKE OF ARCTIC SURGE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FROM THE NRN PARTS OF W TX... ERN NM INTO MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET LIFTING NWD THROUGH W CNTRL TX WILL MAINTAIN ASCENT IN VICINITY OF SW-NE ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS FROM ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS VERTICAL MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW BANDS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN PARTS OF W TX. HOWEVER...SNOW IS INCREASING A LITTLE FARTHER E FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE SWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TAKE ON A MORE BANDED STRUCTURE WITH TIME. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO RESULT IN POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL. ..DIAL.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35890074 35250070 34340163 33480245 33870406 35180350 36030169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 09:30:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 04:30:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020931.iA29VCV21445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020930 MSZ000-LAZ000-021130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020930Z - 021130Z MARGINAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO MAY PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MS SWWD THROUGH SWRN LA. STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS LINE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW MS WHERE LATEST RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE JACKSON VWP SHOWS VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2 BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FORCED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING COLD POOL AND ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29909322 30759207 32169085 32469033 31868991 29799151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 15:52:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 10:52:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411021553.iA2FrfV23273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021552 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021552 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN LA INTO EXTREME SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021552Z - 021745Z A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND EXTREME SERN MS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS WARM...VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND SBCAPE IS IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA EWD INTO AL AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL TX. NEGATIVE ASPECT AT THIS TIME IS PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PREVALENT OVER SWRN PARTS OF LA...THIS IS BEHIND MAIN FRONTAL BAND. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN LA MAY AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SURFACE INFLOW AHEAD OF STRONG BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LCH SWD INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...NEXT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... 29029217 29549219 29969194 30229163 30399120 30838984 30918898 30208827 29058859 28538939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 09:40:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 04:40:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411030941.iA39fLV10502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030940 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-031145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS AND EXTREME SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030940Z - 031145Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS FROM SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN AL THIS MORNING. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW. REMNANT OUTFLOW/COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SRN LA EWD INTO THE MS AND AL BOOT HEELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE NW GULF. A LINE OF STORMS PERSISTS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTING NWD OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. S OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR (25 TO 30 KT) WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS WITHIN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE... MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF THE LINE...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 11/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29229041 31119023 31678863 30608773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 20:56:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 15:56:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411032057.iA3Kvcg11809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032056 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CST WED NOV 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MS...WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032056Z - 032230Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN FAR ERN AL WILL HAVE A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS WRN AL. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SE MS AND SW AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOIST TONGUE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 200O J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THIS AREA SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SFC WINDS ARE BACKED ACROSS SWRN AL. THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOWING SEGMENTS MAY HAVE A BRIEF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 14,000 FT SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 11/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32918853 33578824 33638766 33188715 32168721 30998754 30678804 30728855 31238864 32338862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 19:58:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 14:58:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411101958.iAAJwcg26370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101957 OKZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL VALID 101957Z - 102200Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE/STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. CLOSED LOW IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER PROGRESSING EAST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION...ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. AS THIS MOTION CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW... WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...LIKELY INTO AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY BY 11/00Z. RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED ZONE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH TONGUE OF MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ENID/STILLWATER AREAS. AS STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 K/KG. DESPITE LOW VALUES OF CAPE... STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZATION/ INTENSITY OF STORMS...WITH COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WHICH MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36669883 36819843 36729726 36349646 35739629 35469686 35029722 34419802 34759877 36009881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 23:27:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 18:27:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411102327.iAANRug05523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102327 OKZ000-110130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 877... VALID 102327Z - 110130Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FROM N CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK FOLLOWED BY AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND. EARLY THIS EVENING...LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK JUST E OF NORMAN. THE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. BASED ON THIS STORM MOTION.. THE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM VWP DATA RANGES FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DESPITE LIMITED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXIS AND MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN A DECREASING TREND. ..DIAL.. 11/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34649710 36299792 36329681 34709636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 02:07:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 21:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411110208.iAB27Yg01506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110206 OKZ000-110330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 877... VALID 110206Z - 110330Z THREAT FOR MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z. A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUES DEVELOPING ACROSS E CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXTREME ERN OK INTO WRN AR. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...AND THE STORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..DIAL.. 11/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34169643 35349609 36469593 36289528 35089511 34279541 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 20:30:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 15:30:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411112030.iABKUjg05751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112029 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA/E CNTRL...SRN MS...SE AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL VALID 112029Z - 112230Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS REACHED 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING INCREASING SURFACE- BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION LIKELY WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON... PERHAPS ENHANCED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AROUND/ SHORTLY AFTER 12/00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 11/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30038923 30329099 30929141 32659053 33348991 33118937 33258847 32838702 32058673 31368723 30798736 30338718 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 08:24:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 03:24:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411130824.iAD8Ong04984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130823 NMZ000-131430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NM CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 130823Z - 131430Z SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS ERN SOCORRO...WRN LINCOLN...AND MUCH OF TORRANCE COUNTIES. DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO EARLY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ATOP ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SWRN NM COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER LIFT SPREADING NNEWD. DIABATIC AND ADIABATIC COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRR NWD TO LVS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO SPREAD EAST INTO SERN NM LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONGER ASCENT AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THESE AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME...MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTH OF WHITE SANDS TO EAST OF ABQ THROUGH DAYBREAK. PROXIMITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY BOOST SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z/8AM MST. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 33040578 33160659 33790685 34890644 35550578 35500490 34840424 34120399 33280459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 18:12:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 13:12:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411131813.iADID2g18015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131812 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 131812Z - 132315Z MDT TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NE/ECNTRL NM THROUGH APPROX 21Z...WITH SNOW SPREADING/INCREASING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORT MAXIMA TRANSITIONING NEWD ACROSS SE NM/WEST TX...WITH EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE REGION. DPVA/UPPER JET INDUCED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH ELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN MDT/HVY SNOW ACROSS NE/ECNTRL NM -- NAMELY IN LVS/TCC/CVS CORRIDOR -- THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE NM INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NW HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE....NAMELY N/W OF AMA. IN THESE AREAS...DYNAMIC COOLING AND/OR ALREADY SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOW LEVELS /SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS NEAR 32F/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH PROFILES...AS NET UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR. ..GUYER.. 11/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35000533 35890526 36680421 37230272 37030144 36250097 35410140 34330266 34090390 34140466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 05:25:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 00:25:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411200527.iAK5R3E01502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200526 TXZ000-200730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200526Z - 200730Z A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INLAND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE STORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SEEN ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL TX AND THIS IS RESULTING IN SFC PRESSURE FALLS. VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE HOUSTON AREA SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS THE CELLS TRACK NEWD. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ROTATING CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28219685 28439710 28579719 29059700 29479666 29649629 29829608 30069540 30119483 30019465 29719449 29349457 28929486 28419582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 18:21:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 13:21:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411201823.iAKINqE08548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201823 TXZ000-202100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201823Z - 202100Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF S TX. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SE TX COAST WSWWD TO JUST S OF VICTORIA TO NEAR LAREDO. A LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX AND CONTINUES TO MITIGATE SURFACE HEATING. THINNING/BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALONG COASTAL S TX HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S JUST S OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. RUC DATA SHOW NOSE OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH COASTAL S TX WITH TIME...RESULTING IN AN INVERSION AROUND 2.6 KM. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND CAPE IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER...SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...AND HAS POTENTIAL TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE N OF THE BOUNDARY INTO S CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL. HOWEVER... OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE. ..DIAL.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28349671 28789560 29259599 28999771 28159829 27789762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 19:54:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 14:54:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411201956.iAKJuOE12742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201955 TXZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201955Z - 202200Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK SLY FLOW ABOVE MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR IS MAINTAINING FEED OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS SRN EDGE OF LEAD VORT MAX OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF NERN TX WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CONVECTION PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30569840 30279974 30350067 30980122 31640092 32469968 32959819 32689680 31789649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 23:10:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 18:10:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411202312.iAKNC5E21594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202311 TXZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202311Z - 210115Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD POSE SOME CHANCE OF HAIL OR A BRIEF WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE SUPERCELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK NORTH/SOUTH CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND NORTHERNMOST CELL WILL TRACK ON OR NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS LAVACA COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO TRAILING PORTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO AT LEAST BE MAINTAINED... AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN IMPULSE BRUSHES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS A REGION OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 0-1KM SRH BETWEEN 150-200 M2/S2. RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE TORNADO/SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE...AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...WOULD SUGGEST THAT OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME. ..CARBIN.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879572 28409649 28589718 29049722 29549713 29729660 29839565 29259508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 02:04:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 21:04:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411210206.iAL264E12742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210205 COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-210800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 210205Z - 210800Z SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1-2 IN/HR RANGE TONIGHT. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD AREA DUE TO VERY STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG COLD FRONT. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTH FACING SLOPES WILL BENEFIT FROM INCREASING UPSLOPE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SURFACE DEWP0INTS IN THE 30S UPSTREAM...MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. 00Z FGZ AND GJT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGESTING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BURSTS WITH LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FT IN GENERAL WITH HEAVIEST RATES ABOVE 7000 FT. ..JEWELL.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37860724 37710678 37400654 37050644 37030735 37030832 37370873 37580928 37310979 36841005 36340992 36020943 35700959 35881035 36331048 37031065 37451024 37811006 38040972 38210949 38560938 38570914 38250876 38070844 38000811 38050774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 11:14:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 06:14:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211116.iALBGOE01007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211115 CAZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL RANGE OF SRN CA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 211115Z - 211715Z SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR BETWEEN 15-18Z. UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS SRN NV WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAX BY 18Z. FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90 KT JET STREAK WILL FOCUS VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA...WITH STRONG 90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE INCREASING FURTHER ENHANCING SNOW RATES. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -6C OR LOWER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 18Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY 18Z. DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES SUPPORT THIS. GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE...SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 15-18Z WHEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MAXIMUM VERTICAL LIFT AND A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION. ..TAYLOR.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32721625 32661677 33951736 34431714 34431687 34181639 33771629 33211629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 14:15:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 09:15:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211417.iALEH8E27390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211416 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211416 CAZ000-211615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN COASTAL AREA OF SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211416Z - 211615Z THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOS POSSIBLE COASTAL AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 17Z. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN CA AHEAD OF SWD DIGGING UPPER LOW. FRONT AT 14Z LOCATED FROM NWRN SAN DIEGO COUNTY SWWD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SAN DIEGO AREA NEXT 2 HOURS. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND UPWARD MOTION COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG WITH BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..HALES.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 33251742 33341705 33221685 32991669 32781665 32621668 32451693 32501719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 16:29:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 11:29:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211630.iALGUuE05426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211630 UTZ000-AZZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NCNTRL THROUGH NW AZ INTO SW UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211630Z - 212230Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY TO 2-2.5 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL THROUGH NW AZ AND INTO SW UT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 6000 FT EAST OF A KINGMAN TO ST GEORGE LINE. SNOW ELEVATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY AOB 5000 FT WEST OF THIS LINE BUT MAY RISE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. THIS MORNING A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NWRN AZ NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL UT. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH SRN CA AND INTO WRN AZ...MAINTAINING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...FRONTOGENETIC AND Q-G FORCING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW THROUGH AZ...ENHANCING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT. THE STRONG Q-G FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THE STRONG SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PIVOTING NWWD WITH TIME...AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS OVER NW AZ MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34831155 35311424 37621329 38431201 38391072 36371170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 19:14:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 14:14:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211916.iALJGNE32583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211915 LAZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211915Z - 212115Z THREAT OF A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN LA NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THREAT APPEARS TO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ALLEN/JEFFERSON_DAVIS COUNTY LINE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...THE AMBIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY. ALSO EWD STORM MOTIONS ARE SUCH THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE BOUNDARY. THESE FACTORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LFC HEIGHTS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30259230 30299321 30919205 30809114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 12:17:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 07:17:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411221219.iAMCJEE06431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221218 TXZ000-221345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221218Z - 221345Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA FROM NEAR SAT TO HOU DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO. WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN TX EXTENDED FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER /60 SE DRT/ EWD TO 20 NW PSX AND THEN NEWD...BUT INLAND OF THE UPPER TX COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM COT TO HDO/SAT AREA...AND THEN TRACKING ENEWD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER GONZALES AND AUSTIN COUNTIES...AND HAVE PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION...ESPECIALLY THE STORM OVER AUSTIN COUNTY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS MOVE EWD EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WARM FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL BE DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ..PETERS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... 29279499 29219634 29069821 29199901 29749921 30159857 30229739 30689607 30759456 30209403 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 16:47:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 11:47:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411221649.iAMGnkE20670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221649 LAZ000-TXZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221649Z - 221845Z 16Z SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM/COASTAL FRONT BECOMING WELL DEFINED FROM CENTRAL LA SWWD INTO NRN PART OF HOU AREA AND THEN WWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 TO NEAR SAT. LOW CENTER NEAR COT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED STALLED FRONT EXTENDING INTO NERN TX/WRN AR. WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY MOIST AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER HEATING WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. SUPERCELL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF HOU DURING THE PAST HOUR...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT EVIDENT ON VWP FROM KHGX. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS CELL. WEAKENING CIN AND INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SUGGEST FURTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WW DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO THREAT INCREASED NEAR THE FRONT. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR NEAR VCT...STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28389800 28669910 29379892 29919717 30789386 30679296 29779336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 18:55:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 13:55:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411221857.iAMIvEE31911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221856 LAZ000-TXZ000-222000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 879... VALID 221856Z - 222000Z ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE. THEREFORE...WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITHIN THE HOUR. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE HOU AREA WWD ALONG I-10 TO JUST SOUTH OF SAT. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEST HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S HAVE REMOVED CAPPING AND BOOSTED MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN 45-50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28389800 28669910 29379892 29919717 30419393 29829375 28969462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:30:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:30:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222132.iAMLWME29707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222131 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN NM...FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222131Z - 230000Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL...AND A FEW OF THESE MAY REACH MINIMAL SEVERE CRITERIA. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING OVER THE AREA AND CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COMING OUT OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND THEREFORE INCREASE INSTABILITY. A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE HELP OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ... 31370956 32550988 33401010 33660911 33650791 33180565 32910510 32310487 31270526 30940546 31420610 31730641 31770818 31340822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:33:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:33:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222134.iAMLYsE30861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222134 LAZ000-TXZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 222134Z - 222330Z TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WITH POSSIBLE TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 15 KT...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF HOUSTON METRO. VWP FROM KHGX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELL SEEMS TO BE TRACKING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY. CAPE AND CIN PARAMETERS SUGGEST THIS CELL MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF HOUSTON. OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING/DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WW ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD OUT OF CENTRAL TX AND WEST OF GULF BREEZE EVIDENT ON KCRP. AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28379642 28369822 28899828 29919717 30419393 29829375 29169438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:44:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:44:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222146.iAMLkDE04892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222131 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN NM...FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222131Z - 230000Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL...AND A FEW OF THESE MAY REACH MINIMAL SEVERE CRITERIA. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING OVER THE AREA AND CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COMING OUT OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND THEREFORE INCREASE INSTABILITY. A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE HELP OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ... 31370956 32550988 33401010 33660911 33650791 33180565 32910510 32310487 31270526 30940546 31420610 31730641 31770818 31340822  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:47:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222149.iAMLnME06688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222134 LAZ000-TXZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 222134Z - 222330Z TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WITH POSSIBLE TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 15 KT...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF HOUSTON METRO. VWP FROM KHGX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELL SEEMS TO BE TRACKING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY. CAPE AND CIN PARAMETERS SUGGEST THIS CELL MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF HOUSTON. OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING/DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WW ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD OUT OF CENTRAL TX AND WEST OF GULF BREEZE EVIDENT ON KCRP. AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28379642 28369822 28899828 29919717 30419393 29829375 29169438  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 00:03:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 19:03:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411230005.iAN054E06930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230003 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS...CNTRL/SRN LA...SW/CNTRL MS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 230003Z - 230230Z TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME... IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT WW 880 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. AS ONE HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHEAST STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND UPSTREAM JET STREAK CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH BASE OF SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ JET STREAK APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INLAND OF MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. WHILE BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MUCH OF ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED JUST ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST/ CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE EVENING. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM/MOIST PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY WHICH REMAINS SURFACE-BASED...IN WARM SECTOR NORTHEAST OF VICTORIA TX INTO THE LAKE CHARLES LA AREA ..KERR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28659736 29689664 31029478 32099356 33039195 33039076 32628979 31708960 30659164 30329204 29929306 28949575 28589669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 04:30:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 23:30:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411230431.iAN4VoE26241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230430 TXZ000-230630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL AND WESTERN INTO WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230430Z - 230630Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. EXIT REGION OF VIGOROUS MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...HAS SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AS CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...UP TO 1000 J/KG. ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 06-07Z...WITH STRONGER CELLS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH/EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. THEREAFTER...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE MIDLAND AREA...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE ABILENE VICINITY OVERNIGHT. BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 25-30 KTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CAPE. PRIMARY THREAT LIKELY WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL...WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY BASED ABOVE SLOWLY DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. ..KERR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32000223 33580181 33599994 32779921 31529985 30840007 30390115 30950234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 08:58:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 03:58:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411230900.iAN90LE20831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230858 TXZ000-231030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881... VALID 230858Z - 231030Z SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z ACROSS WEST TX. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF FST ATTM...WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ELSEWHERE. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 11Z TO THE EAST OF WW 881. CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN TX AS A 70+ MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. SURFACE ANALYSES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATED A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SWRN TX...AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF LBB TO 25 E MAF TO 40 SW SANDERSON AT 0830Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ALL OF THE STORMS OVER THIS REGION AND CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF FST ARE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...GREATER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S/ ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF WW 881 SHOULD SUPPORT A BETTER TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN PECOS TO UPTON COUNTIES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 881. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 30440302 31850215 32930148 32919965 30430093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 13:05:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:05:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231307.iAND7LE19444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231306 TXZ000-231430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231306Z - 231430Z WW MAY BE NEEDED BY MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SERN TX. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL AFTER 16Z. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NM/ NRN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN OK AND A SECOND ONE ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST IS AIDING IN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NWRN TX AND CENTRAL TX TO JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND AN INCREASING BROAD SLY LLJ OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. SELY SURFACE WINDS AND SLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /8.4 C/KM PER 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ ALREADY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT AT 12Z CRP SOUNDING FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. AT THAT TIME... TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/CURVED HODOGRAPHS PER 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-1 KM SRH AR0UND 200 M2/S2. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32329601 32399480 31699417 30569400 29729402 29029545 29249665 29699784 30089870 31169830 32079709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 13:18:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231320.iANDKAE25483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231319 TXZ000-231445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 882... VALID 231319Z - 231445Z WW 882 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ..HART.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31619990 33139886 33589797 33529684 32839708 31609793 31209866 31229952 31350015 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 13:39:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:39:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231341.iANDfUE03870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231340 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM/SE CO/EXTREME WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231340Z - 231945Z SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1-2"/HR ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NM THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY AFTN. WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOW A VORT MAX ROTATING JUST SW OF ABQ. WITHIN LATEST DEFORMATION BAND MODERATE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT SFE WITH HEAVY SNOW AT LVS NM. DRY SLOT SEEMS TO BE ERODING CURRENT BAND...BUT A NEW BAND MAY BE FORMING OVER E CNTRL NM/NW TX. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF CURRENT BAND WILL REMAIN INTACT OR ANOTHER WILL FORM...BUT SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC LIFT IS OCCURRING WITH EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW INCREASING SNOW RATES AFTER 15Z FROM SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH UNION COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM LVS AND SURROUNDING SITES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH RATES FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM AS NEEDED. ..TAYLOR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36960202 36150242 35000567 35290635 35810642 36380584 37140464 37560304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 15:14:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 10:14:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231516.iANFGGE22195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231515 OKZ000-TXZ000-231745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...E-CENTRAL/SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231515Z - 231745Z BOWING LINE OF TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 15Z FROM WRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX NWD ACROSS LOVE COUNTY OK -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION FROM I-35 EWD...AND ACROSS ADJOINING PORTIONS N TX AND SRN OK. EXPECT OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION -- NW OF WW 883 -- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ABOVE SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SWRN LA...ARCHING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WW 883...AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. EXPECT NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS SFC-700 MB...BENEATH LAYER OF 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG JUST NE OF DAL TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG I-40 IN ERN OK. VWP/PROFILER WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK DIURNAL HEATING OVER RED RIVER AREA OF NE TX/SE OK...EXPECT LAYER OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR SFC TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32259804 33149728 33589702 34189722 34719719 35369647 35509533 35309455 34259455 33559526 33319560 33329611 32379688 32139816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 16:36:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 11:36:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231638.iANGcCE07632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231637 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883... VALID 231637Z - 231830Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EACH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WW AREA...RESULTING IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ATTM WITH PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED STATIONARY FROM SW COT THROUGH WEAK MESOLOW NEAR AUS...THEN AS WARM FRONT NEWD TO FREESTONE COUNTY...ARCHING ESEWD ACROSS POE REGION. COLD FRONT -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW ALONG NRN END -- EXTENDS FROM DFW METROPLEX SWWD TOWARD SJT AREA. SFC TROUGH CONNECTS AUS AREA LOW WITH METROPLEX AREA BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...AND IS PRESENTLY A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL SEVERE TSTMS. VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAKNESSES IN LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ATTM...BUT HODOGRAPHS SHOULD EXPAND OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG I-35 BOUNDARY. AS WARM SECTOR CINH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BOTH INVOF BOUNDARIES AND S OF WARM FRONT...MOVING NEWD. TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST WITH TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT...AND INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES NOW INVOF I-35...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME TORNADIC AS WELL. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO WILL INCREASE INVOF I-20 WITH APCH OF SFC WARM FRONT. WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29519647 29539905 33309612 33329334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 17:10:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 12:10:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231712.iANHCME26511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231710 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231710Z - 231945Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS.....A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON NE OF WW 884. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BULK OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PER LATEST SWODY1 OUTLOOK. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM MGM-JAN-POE AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE BECAUSE OF DIABATIC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F. THIS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z...1500 J/KG BY ABOUT 21Z...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE INCREASING IN DEPTH AND EXTENT ALONG HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS OVER SRN MS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG BUT SMALL HODOGRAPHS IN 2-5 KM LAYER. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND VECTOR IS SWLY...AS EVIDENT IN ORIENTATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH HCRS. WEAK CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING THAN THE HCRS...SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WILL POSE THREAT OF HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32789110 32838762 30948838 31009226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 17:37:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 12:37:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231739.iANHdVE08598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231738 LAZ000-TXZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/WRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884... VALID 231738Z - 231945Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW AREA AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SFC-BASED BUOYANCY EACH STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEAR AUS NEWD TOWARD ANDERSON COUNTY TX...SEWD TO LFK AREA...THEN GENERALLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA NEAR ESF. MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM CONVECTION...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIABATIC HEATING FURTHER WEAKENS CAP. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AND INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONT WILL POSE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ENVIRONMENT OF LOCALLY ENHANCED 0-1 KM SHEAR. SRH 100-150 J/KG NOTED IN THAT LAYER AT PALESTINE PROFILER...AND HODOGRAPH WEAKNESSES EVIDENT ABOVE 1 KM ATTM SHOULD BE REMOVED AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES. SOME TORNADO THREAT ALSO WILL CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT -- AS EVIDENT IN PERSISTENT GULF SUPERCELL THAT WAS MOVING ONSHORE PORTIONS GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES AS OF 1730Z...IN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW LCL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28139775 32049460 32059160 28149475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:15:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:15:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231817.iANIHEE29257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231815 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231815Z - 232315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY /E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083 35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:15:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:15:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231817.iANIHTE29367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231816 TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231816Z - 232045Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY THROUGH 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W. AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY SOUNDING PROFILE. EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776 30529865 30150245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:19:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:19:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231821.iANIL8E31507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231815 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231815Z - 232315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY /E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083 35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:19:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231821.iANILgE31783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231816 TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231816Z - 232045Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY THROUGH 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W. AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY SOUNDING PROFILE. EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776 30529865 30150245  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:20:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:20:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231822.iANIM6E31964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231815 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231815Z - 232315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY /E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083 35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:20:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:20:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231823.iANINvE01079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231816 TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231816Z - 232045Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY THROUGH 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W. AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY SOUNDING PROFILE. EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776 30529865 30150245  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:47:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:47:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231849.iANInQE15492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231848 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL THROUGH NERN TX...NRN/WRN LA...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883...884... VALID 231848Z - 232045Z PERSISTENT/TORNADIC TSTM WITH HYBRID OF HP SUPERCELL AND BOW CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY ACROSS PORTIONS LEON/MADISON/HOUSTON COUNTIES OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AS IT INTERACTS WITH SFC WARM FRONT. THIS STORM ALSO IS LOCATED NEAR SFC MESOLOW...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER. TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF WWS AS WELL. WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM FREESTONE COUNTY GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NACOGDOCHES AREA INTO CENTRAL LA -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS NE TX AND ALLOW SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO SPREAD INTO ARKLATEX REGION. AS A RESULT...WWS MAY NEED REPLACEMENT WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NRN LA AND PERHAPS SRN AR. LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE TX MAY RESTRICT FURTHER SFC DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON ALREADY ACROSS THIS REGION BASED ON 18Z SHV/LCH/CRP RAOBS AND RUC/ETA-KF MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXPECT KINEMATIC WEAKNESSES IN 2-6 KM AGL PORTION OF HODOGRAPH TO GO AWAY AS LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO APCHG UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL/NERN TX. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...JAN...LCH...CRP... 29519646 29529912 33349610 33309335 28109478 28159766 32049458 32079161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 19:39:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 14:39:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231940.iANJepE13533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231940 ARZ000-MSZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...EXTREME NERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231940Z - 232115Z SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO. FOR SITUATION IN AREAS NEAR LA BORDER AND SWD...WHERE REPLACEMENT WW IS IMMINENT FOR 883/884...REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437. ETA/RUC MODELS EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THIS REGION SWD BASED ON COMPARISON WITH 18Z SHV RAOB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN AR...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SFC. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL TX -- WILL LIFT NWD INTO AR/LA BORDER REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX. AS THIS OCCURS NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW..ESPECIALLY S OF I-40...BRINGING AT LEAST MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34549373 35589236 35459095 35289046 34839035 34219054 34169085 34189159 34169312 34209389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:14:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:14:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232015.iANKFmE02417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232014 TXZ000-OKZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232014Z - 232245Z THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD FROM FAR SE NM INTO WEST TX. IN SPITE OF 50 DEG F SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX...DEGREE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH -- AS EVIDENT IN -7 DEG C CHANGE AT 500MB BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MAF RAOB -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OF GREATER IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34120281 34710151 34910038 34669965 33589937 32599986 32770122 33180267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:16:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:16:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232018.iANKIEE03994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232017 COR ARZ000-MSZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232017Z - 232115Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO. FOR SITUATION IN AREAS NEAR LA BORDER AND SWD...WHERE REPLACEMENT WW IS IMMINENT FOR 883/884...REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437. ETA/RUC MODELS EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THIS REGION SWD BASED ON COMPARISON WITH 18Z SHV RAOB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN AR...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SFC. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL TX -- WILL LIFT NWD INTO AR/LA BORDER REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX. AS THIS OCCURS NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW..ESPECIALLY S OF I-40...BRINGING AT LEAST MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34549373 35589236 35459095 35289046 34839035 34219054 34169085 34189159 34169312 34209389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:21:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:21:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232022.iANKMuE06621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232014 TXZ000-OKZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232014Z - 232245Z THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD FROM FAR SE NM INTO WEST TX. IN SPITE OF 50 DEG F SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX...DEGREE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH -- AS EVIDENT IN -7 DEG C CHANGE AT 500MB BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MAF RAOB -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OF GREATER IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34120281 34710151 34910038 34669965 33589937 32599986 32770122 33180267  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:40:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:40:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232042.iANKg4E18382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232041 GAZ000-ALZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN AL...WRN/CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232041Z - 232245Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD 20-30 KT ACROSS REGION WITH INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM SRN SC WWD ACROSS MCN AREA TO NEAT TCL...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS...AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-1800 J/KG OVER CENTRAL MS...DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT TO AROUND 1000 J/KG CENTRAL GA...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG BUT SMALL 2-5 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BUT WEAK CINH SHOULD PERMIT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO FORM OVER AL AND MOVE EWD INTO GA. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32528837 33168799 33798611 33918491 33498332 32988309 32338357 31378536 31528821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 21:20:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 16:20:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232122.iANLMCE08756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232121 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL/SERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...SRN/CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885... VALID 232121Z - 232315Z SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVIDENT ATTM OVER POTIONS SE TX...N OF I-10. THIS ACTIVITY -- ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR -- SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS SABINE RIVER REGION AND INTO W-CENTRAL/SWRN LA DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF TSTMS AND PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LA...SRN AR AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 150-200 J/KG SRH IN SFC-1 KM LAYER...BASED ON REGIONAL VWP. AIR MASS FROM SRN EDGE OF TSTM CLUSTER SWD INTO GULF IS CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG MLCAPE...BASED ON MODIFIED LCH 18Z RAOB. TORNADO POTENTIAL FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL AR IS MORE QUESTIONABLE BASED ON STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING EWD FROM WRN AR...WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY N OF WARM FRONT AND SLOWS NWD MOVEMENT OF THAT FRONT. STILL...THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO ENOUGH OF S-CENTRAL AND SERN AR TO WARRANT CONTINUANCE OF WW THERE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 34689414 34689027 28989378 28969745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 23:29:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 18:29:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232331.iANNVDE07397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232330 LAZ000-TXZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/WRN AND CNTRL LA /SE AR/NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885... VALID 232330Z - 240130Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW. RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED HIGH LEVEL JET STREAKS. THIS AREA OF UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED BENEATH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF LOUISIANA. AS UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING...30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50 KT...AND LIFT NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG RED RIVER WEST OF TEXARKANA. THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASING RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF VICKSBURG MS BY AROUND 02-03Z. OTHERWISE...NEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ..KERR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31039374 31709332 32349268 32689200 32709124 32259130 31259203 30769239 30569335 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 00:24:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 19:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240026.iAO0QhE30051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240023 TXZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 887... VALID 240023Z - 240230Z CONTINUE WW. STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS...GENERALLY IN ARC ALIGNED WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOP AND EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BECOME INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/SURFACE COLD FRONT AND RETREATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AUSTIN AREA. GIVEN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. GROWING COMPLEX/POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED SPREAD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LUFKIN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30199798 31089751 31709624 32309590 32619462 31239424 30309471 30069579 29989716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 00:27:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 19:27:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240029.iAO0TCE31311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240028 TXZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 887... VALID 240028Z - 240230Z CONTINUE WW. STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS...GENERALLY IN ARC ALIGNED WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOP AND EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BECOME INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/SURFACE COLD FRONT AND RETREATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AUSTIN AREA. GIVEN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. GROWING COMPLEX/POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED SPREAD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LUFKIN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30199798 31089751 31709624 32309590 32619462 31239424 30309471 30069579 29989716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 01:16:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:16:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240118.iAO1ISE18354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240117 LAZ000-TXZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX COASTAL AREAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240117Z - 240215Z EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WW 885 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 02-03Z. SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL OVERSPREAD MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 03-06Z. WITH ENVIRONMENT REMAINING WARM AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST BEYOND CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 885. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT FEW HOURS...HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC THREAT. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29299776 30019736 30349648 32089546 32339442 32139391 29989379 29449417 28829542 28219675 28359741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 01:30:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:30:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240132.iAO1WEE24451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240131 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NW OK/SW KS CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 240131Z - 240630Z BAND OF MDT SNOW WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 1 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROX 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES...NAMELY FROM AMA N/NE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT/MDT SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NW OK/SW IN AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A GAG-P28 LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NW TX...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN FROM NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS IN NW QUADRANT OF LOW. IN ADDITION...18Z/21Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING UPPER DIV ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS REMAINDER OF EVENING OWING TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH /AS EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA RAOB/...CORRESPONDING BAND OF MDT SNOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE IN GUY-PYX-BGD-AMA CORRIDOR THROUGH APPROX 03Z. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER NE ACROSS NW OK/SRN KS...PRECIP GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SHALLOW WARM LAYER PERSISTING WITH 01Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED NE-SW FROM PTT TO NEAR PYX. HOWEVER SHORT TERM TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT/MDT SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS FAR NW OK INTO SRN KS. ..GUYER.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36380213 37250085 37939951 37399876 36189979 35330120 35380199 35790226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 01:52:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:52:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240154.iAO1sNE01207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240153 MSZ000-LAZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN LA INTO CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240153Z - 240230Z TORNADO WW 885 IS BEING REPLACED WITH 2 NEW TORNADO WATCHES. NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF ERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31129320 32279193 32839098 32818934 32418937 30829068 29799221 29719287 30319351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 02:59:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 21:59:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240301.iAO316E30454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240300 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240300Z - 240500Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:01:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:01:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240302.iAO32rE31427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240302 COR TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240302Z - 240500Z CORRECTED FOR AREA IN HEADER NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:02:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:02:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240304.iAO34YE31940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240300 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240300Z - 240500Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:03:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:03:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240305.iAO35FE32214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240302 COR TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240302Z - 240500Z CORRECTED FOR AREA IN HEADER NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:13:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:13:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240315.iAO3F4E04175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240314 MSZ000-LAZ000-240515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LA INTO WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 888...890... VALID 240314Z - 240515Z CONTINUE WWS. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG/JUST EAST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 50 KT LATE THIS EVENING REMAINS FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA THROUGH THE VICINITY OF VICKSBURG MS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO NARROW TONGUE OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31079280 31649202 32509143 33259084 33379030 32848996 31969065 31219093 30729160 30249239 30429303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 04:01:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 23:01:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240402.iAO42xE24148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240401 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-240600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 889...890... VALID 240401Z - 240600Z CONTINUE WWS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AT AROUND 40 KT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD CLEAR THESE AREAS BY AROUND 06Z. MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELDS FROM TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER ACCELERATION OF SQUALL LINE...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA BY 08-09Z. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29139509 30139436 31489388 32099366 32669231 32979108 32659053 31479039 30389072 29349115 28749190 28349338 28349510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 05:15:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 00:15:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240516.iAO5GkE20359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240516 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-240715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW...CNTRL THRU N CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891... VALID 240516Z - 240715Z CONTINUE WW 891. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS ALABAMA...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS STRENGTHENING OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MOBILE AL INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THIS AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. CORRESPONDING TO THIS DESTABILIZATION...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND FORCING COULD SUPPORT MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATER TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR...SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31108865 32158841 33248779 34168731 34478663 34008612 33638626 32978646 32158689 31198731 30248825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 06:29:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 01:29:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240631.iAO6VSE14293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240630 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-240700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240630Z - 240700Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SERN MS INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN AL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER SERN LA /ST TAMMANY PARISH/ MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 30 KT. STRONG SLY LLJ (40 KT) OVER SERN LA INTO MS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS STRONG UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION FOR ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NRN TO SWRN LA AT 0630Z. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE VERY STRONG /AROUND 300 M2/S2/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30469086 33168860 33238593 30328776 30248832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 07:26:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 02:26:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240730.iAO7U3E32303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240728 MSZ000-LAZ000-240800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LA INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 890... VALID 240728Z - 240800Z TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 890 UNTIL 08-09Z...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SQUALL LINE. ERN PORTIONS OF WW 890 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL MS SWWD INTO SERN LA...WITH A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NERN-SWRN LA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2. DAMAGING WINDS WILL THEN BE LIKELY WITH THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. THE NRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT 50-60 KT INTO WEST CENTRAL MS...WITH THE SRN PORTION MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT INTO SWRN MS/SERN LA. AT 08Z THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM YAZOO COUNTY MS TO ST LANDRY PARISH LA...AND THEN TO FAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 890 BY 09Z. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30479279 31469191 32399162 32879180 32918891 30419099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 08:42:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 03:42:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240843.iAO8hpE22319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240843 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-240945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS/WRN AL AND SERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891...892...893...894... VALID 240843Z - 240945Z DANGEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES MS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TOWN OF MERIDIAN MS BY 09Z. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL/SERN MS AND SERN LA TO PORTIONS OF WRN AL THROUGH 10Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG ROTATIONS INDICATED WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS...FAVORING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THESE DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AT 50 MPH IN ADVANCE OF A SQUALL LINE WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM WRN MS TO SERN LA AT 0830Z. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31899018 32558960 33298917 33538848 33598751 32138754 31208781 30588861 30519021 30649061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 09:34:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 04:34:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240936.iAO9aQE17996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240935 ALZ000-MSZ000-241000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891... VALID 240935Z - 241000Z WW 891 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 10Z...BUT NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AL. AT 0930Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT INTO PICKENS COUNTY AL. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER ERN MS INTO AL CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...WITH THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN AL. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PICKENS COUNTY STORM ARE ALSO MOVING ENE/NE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 891 THROUGH 12Z. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADOES...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-230 M2/S2. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33328858 34158814 34208547 33218547 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 10:56:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 05:56:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241058.iAOAwHE10027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241057 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SWRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 893... VALID 241057Z - 241200Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SRN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ACROSS SERN MS...A PORTION OF SERN LA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SWRN AL. PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD AT 35-45 KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MOIST AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS AIDING IN LOW LCLS...WHILE 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM SERN LA INTO AL IS RESULTING IN VERY STRONG 0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 300-450 M2/S2 FOR TORNADOES. FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...EXTENDING FROM TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AL TO ST CHARLES PARISH LA WILL CONTINUE TO OUTRUN THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN AL TO SERN LA THROUGH 12Z...LEADING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF NEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...TORNADOES WOULD BE LIKELY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE PARAMETERS. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30489033 31828893 33278773 33288590 31398701 30458797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 11:34:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 06:34:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241136.iAOBaNE21590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241135 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 895... VALID 241135Z - 241200Z WW 895 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z...BUT PORTIONS OF SERN LA WHICH INCLUDE THE PARISHES OF ST. BERNARD AND PLAQUEMINES WILL REMAIN UNDER A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EWD THROUGH 13-14Z. THUS...THESE PORTIONS OF WW 895 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z. PARAMETERS OVER SERN LA REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO DISCRETE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOWING STORM ROTATION...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED LOW-MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ST. BERNARD AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES BY 14Z. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29089076 30518958 30468828 28938829 28858957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 12:49:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 07:49:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241251.iAOCpKE13492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241250 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-241745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CENTRAL IL...AND NWRN IND CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 241250Z - 241745Z RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NERN MO THROUGH NWRN IND. SEVERAL HOURS OF HVY WET SNOW WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS STRONGEST FORCING MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL MO TOWARD CENTRAL IL/NWRN IND THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. AT 1245Z...BROAD MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM KANSAS CITY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA IN NWRN QUADRANT OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER NRN AR. PRECIPITATION ZONE IS MARKED BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 750-600MB LAYER NEAR NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION AREA. STRONGEST UVV CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MO...WHERE COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE/UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER UVV NORTH OF LOW CENTER. STRONGEST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE PROPAGATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL BY 18Z AND SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING PRECIP RATES. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...DEEP LIFT SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AS LOW DEEPENS TO 990MB BY 21Z OVER SRN IND...SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH INCREASING CAA IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/NWRN IND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH AS STRONG FORCING MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD SURFACES... HOWEVER...HIGH WATER CONTENT OF SNOW MAY POSE A HAZARD TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HVY SNOW IS REALIZED AS STRONGEST FORCING MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL BY 18Z...AND INTO NWRN IND BY 20Z. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST LEFT OF 700MB LOW TRACK AS PORTRAYED BY 06Z ETA THROUGH CENTRAL IL INTO NWRN IND THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 40409133 40968991 41418849 41728722 41758643 41698606 41238639 40818722 39898929 39598995 39289084 39129125 38999167 39149217 39409247 39739261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 13:10:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 08:10:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241312.iAODCGE22193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241311 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-241415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 896...897... VALID 241311Z - 241415Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BY 14Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT AND EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AL (ST. CLAIR COUNTY) SWWD TO EXTREME SERN LA (PLAQUEMINES PARISH) AT . PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS /0-1 KM SRH 250-400 M2/S2 PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND AREA VADS/ WITH BOTH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THAT REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATED THE SQUALL LINE AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF WW/S 896 AND 897 BY 14-15Z. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INTO THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30328860 31288779 32248658 33288618 34028599 34188505 33988412 32588400 30748404 30018400 29568509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 14:02:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 09:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241404.iAOE4EE14842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241403 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-241500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AL/SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241403Z - 241500Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EXTREME SERN AL INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 35-40 KT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF WW 897 BY 15-16Z. NEW DISCRETE STORMS...A FEW WITH ROTATION...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO /TO THE SOUTH OF SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NEWD AT 25-30 KT AND WILL MOVE INTO SERN PORTION OF WW 897 BY 16Z. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT SQUALL LINE...SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WHILE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31858365 30108394 29558500 29698557 30238763 31098719 31888603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 15:22:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 10:22:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241523.iAOFNxE23928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241523 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241523 GAZ000-ALZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-241700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN GA...SC...EXTREME SRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 899... VALID 241523Z - 241700Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FARTHER E...FOR PORTIONS ERN GA AND SC. SEVERE SQUALL LINE...CONTAINING EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND A FEW POSSIBLY TORNADIC MESOCYCLONES...IS ON TRACK TO LEAVE NRN PORTION WW 899 BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND SERN PORTION AROUND 18Z. ESPECIALLY INTENSE BOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS HENRY/BUTTS/NEWTON/JASPER/MORGAN/PUTNAM/WALTON COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPES 300-800 J/KG. KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADIC BOWS WILL REMAIN STRONG...I.E. WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 55-70 KT MOST AREAS. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED UNTIL LATER TODAY. THEREFORE WW 899 PROBABLY WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION...ONCE ALL POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION EXITS ITS COUNTIES. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX... 31818366 31858553 34278537 34228345 34258348 34918273 35288162 35228085 34958037 34298056 33238106 31798149 31868361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 16:15:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 11:15:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241616.iAOGGmE22846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241616 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-241845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241616Z - 241845Z TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN ARC FROM WRN TN NNEWD OVER EXTREME WRN NY...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS EXTREME SRN IL. SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AMY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN BAND OF TCU INDICATED ON VIS IMAGERY OVER NRN MS...EXTENDING FROM YALOBUSHA TO MARSHALL COUNTIES AS OF 16Z...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAKER ON THIS ARA THAN OVER KY/TN/IL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW -- 993 MB -- INVOF CGI...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN-MOST IL AND SRN INDIANA THROUGH AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED JUST N OF OH RIVER OVER IL/INDIANA ATTM...SHOULD LIFT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3 KM SRH 300-500 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT...250-400 J/KG OVER TN/KY WARM SECTORS...AND DECREASING SWD INTO MS WHERE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE WLY COMPONENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM VALUES 70-80 KT BEING COMMON. GIVEN STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SERN MO UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT BUOYANCY TO INCREASE NOW THAT DIABATIC HEATING IS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LOW 60S SFC DEW POINTS. MLCAPE -- NOW GENERALLY UNDER 250 J/KG -- SHOULD INCREASE TO 500-800 J/KG BY AROUND 19Z...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AMIDST SUCH STRONG SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34148967 35288960 37058926 37668882 38048816 38168761 37918724 37348724 36348758 34998815 34758832 34418866 34278905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 17:23:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 12:23:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241724.iAOHOsE29209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241724 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN AL...SWRN AND S-CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 900... VALID 241724Z - 241930Z WW 900 SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND SRN GA WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF TSTMS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...AND SWRN GA. TORNADO REPORTED ABOUT 8 SE DOWNTOWN DOTHAN AL AT ABOUT 17Z. ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OUT OF SERN AL BY APPROXIMATELY 1745Z AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS EARLY/CALHOUN/BAKER COUNTIES GA THROUGH 19Z. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS -- EVIDENT OVER GULF AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- SHOULD MOVE INLAND ACROSS AQQ-TLH CORRIDOR AS SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LARGE ACROSS REGION...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 300 J/KG BASED ON TLH VWP. VERTICAL SHEAR 55-65 KT INDICATED THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500 J/KG OVER SWRN GA TO AROUND 1200 J/KG OFFSHORE AQQ. BUOYANCY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ATTM ACROSS NRN FL...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29448426 29428727 31798584 31778280 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 18:30:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 13:30:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241832.iAOIWHE00790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241831 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE IL INTO NW IN AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241831Z - 250000Z SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY WET SNOW TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS WCNTRL/NE IL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING NEWD ACROSS NW IN AND SRN LOWER MI IN 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.0-1.5 IN/HR OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE HAMPERED BY MILD GROUND TEMPS/LOW SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENTS. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF MDT-HVY SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP ARE EVIDENT IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA /IN ACCORDANCE WITH SFC OBS/ ACROSS WCNTRL INTO NCNTRL IL AT 18Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE EXPECTED TO EFFECTIVELY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO ALL SNOW...OVERCOMING SHALLOW WARM LAYER WHERE A MIX AND/OR ALL RAIN PERSISTS AT MIDDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTED COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ASSOCIATED ENHANCED UVVS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NE IL/SRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW-NE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN 800-600 MB LAYER WILL ULTIMATELY FOCUS HEAVIEST SNOWBALL IN SIMILAR ORIENTATION FROM WCNTRL/NE IL INTO NW IN AND SRN LOWER MI...NAMELY FOCUSED ALONG SPI-PIA-IKK-SBN-LAN CORRIDOR. FURTHERMORE...PROXIMITY OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- AS EVIDENT IN 6.8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN 12Z ILX RAOB AND CG LIGHTNING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM NE MO INTO WCNTRL IL AMIDST MID/HEAVY SNOW -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOW RATES. ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...E/NE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F SRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE 32F FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SWRN/SRN SUBURBS AND NW IN. ..GUYER.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41748919 41978857 41688739 41998661 42968599 43708430 43508321 42728283 41998420 40668653 39748832 39168978 39399041 39629079 40369115 40779086 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 18:54:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 13:54:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241856.iAOIuME15813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241855 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-OHZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN...WRN KY...SWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 902... VALID 241855Z - 242030Z NEW WW LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS SRN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY...POSSIBLY SWRN OH. MEANWHILE...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN ARC EXTENDING FROM LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEY OF IL/INDIANA TO NEAR HOP THEN SSWWD TO JUST S AND E OF MKL. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INVOF TRACK OF DEEP SFC LOW -- NOW ANALYZED NNW EVV AND FCST TO TRACK NEWD JUST N OF OH RIVER...ALONG NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES NOW IN 500-800 J/KG RANGE OVER WRN PORTIONS TN/KY. INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH 250-500 J/KG...AND 60-90 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...MRX...JKL...ILN... 35068613 35068828 38628889 38628670 38838692 39418582 39508460 39378385 39098363 38438361 37188407 36348480 36068611 36058628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 19:12:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 14:12:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241914.iAOJERE25752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241913 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 901... VALID 241913Z - 242115Z WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG AND E OF PERSISTENT SQUALL LINE WHICH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN GA AND WRN/CENTRAL SC. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HORUS AS THIS ACTIVITY APCHS ERN PORTION WW 901. LINE CONTAINS EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND HAS HISTORY OF DAMAGING GUSTS OVER CENTRAL/NRN GA AND WRN SC. WAA AND GRADUAL DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND FAVORABLY SHEARED 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS MARGINAL BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE...INDICATES CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD FROM WW ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH SOME BRIEF TORNADOES MAY STILL OCCUR IN BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 34218028 35098016 35507846 35067751 34537741 33887792 33147918 32757971 32388037 32598043 31868054 31788354 35058337 35068019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 20:55:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 15:55:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242057.iAOKvKE12111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242056 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN...WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN INDIANA...SWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 902...903... VALID 242056Z - 242300Z DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER SRN INDIANA JUST SSE OF IND...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING INTO WRN OH. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS MORE OF SWRN OH FOLLOWED BY WEAKLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC LOW PATH OVER INDIANA/SWRN OH. THOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SOME UPDRAFTS HAVE REMAINED UPRIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNINGS...AND KINEMATIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE INVOF WARM FRONT. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 18Z ILN RAOB SUGGEST JUST 1-2 DEG C COOLING NEAR SFC OVER REMAINDER WW AREAS REMOVES SBCAPE...THEREFORE...PRIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. FARTHER S...AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE MUCH FURTHER IN LOW LEVELS...SO WW ISSUANCE THERE MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. VEERED FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH TCU PERSIST IN SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ARC. OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL/SUSTAINED SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER TN APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING AS DIABATIC HEATING PASSES PEAK...AND AS ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY CYCLONE KEEPS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SWLY. STILL...WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT DROP SUBSTANTIALLY...IN DEFERENCE TO STRENGTH OF AMBIENT SHEAR AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 37508406 36638656 39188654 40098406 35078618 35048827 38618891 38668663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 21:30:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 16:30:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242131.iAOLVlE28448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242130 GAZ000-FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN GA...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NWRN FL PENINSULA...W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904... VALID 242130Z - 242330Z TWO CONVECTIVE LINES OF CONCERN: 1. EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL GA SWD ACROSS ERN APALACHEE BAY THEN SWWD ACROSS GULF...AND 2. RELATIVELY NEW BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR CTY SSWWD OFFSHORE W-CENTRAL FL COAST...AS OF 2115Z. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED ALONG W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST. WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FIRST LINE AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH REMAINDER EXTREME ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL...MERGING WITH SECOND LINE NEAR CTY. VWP AND RUC SOUNDING DATA INDICATE KINEMATIC PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NWRN FL WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURE. AIRMASS WILL LOSE BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN FL...BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEAT LOSS AND MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER NOTED IN 18Z JAX RAOB. THEREFORE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY NEARS ERN EDGE OF WW...AND ANOTHER WW FARTHER E MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION BREAKS INTO DISCRETE STORMS -- INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS -- OVER GULF. EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 23Z-00Z N OF PIE...AND AFTER 00Z FARTHER S. FOREGOING AIR MASS OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...HOWEVER THETAE WILL DIMINISH WITH INLAND EXTENT AND WITH TIME. PRIND SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER COASTAL COUNTIES BUT NOT VERY FAR INLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31778368 31758162 29028280 28998477 29528254 29278235 28868223 28418224 27788260 27608281 27728303 28158311 28988283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 21:49:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 16:49:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242151.iAOLpGE04069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242150 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 905... VALID 242150Z - 242345Z SQUALL LINE WITH LITTLE OR NO REMAINING CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS WW AREA. WW CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS LINE...WITH POSTCONVECTIVE AIR MASS BECOMING TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MOST AREAS BECAUSE OF SMALL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTIVE SCALE ASCENT ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...PERHAPS E OF WW INTO ERN NC WHERE WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING GUSTS...SEVERAL REPORTS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH THIS LINE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 36548057 36587812 32557791 32558026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 23:02:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 18:02:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242303.iAON3jE30589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242302 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NCNTRL/NWRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 903... VALID 242302Z - 242330Z TORNADO WATCH 903 EXPIRES AT 00Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL/ SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 989MB SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IND WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD ALONG THE OH RVR THEN SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN. A COUPLE BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IND. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY...BUT REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE MIAMI VLY /KDAY/ TO KCMH. THE WILMINGTON OH VWP SHOWS 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 225 M2/S2. SO...KINEMATICALLY...THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM FROM SERN IND INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL OH...OR ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THERMODYNAMICALLY...GIVEN LOSS OF SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG...WITH ONLY SMALL STABLE LAYER. THUS...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THUS...ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. ..RACY.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND... 36688653 39208648 40168282 37718283 36648651 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 23:35:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 18:35:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242336.iAONauE08671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242336 GAZ000-FLZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904... VALID 242336Z - 250000Z TORNADO WATCH 904 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH IN TIME OR SPACE. A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SERN GA AND NRN FL. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AND MAINLY OFFSHORE OF LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FEEDING OFF UNSTABLE MARINE PARCELS...BUT A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE SINCE 23Z. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING AND THE FACT THAT A RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER EXISTS JUST ABOVE H7...UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME LASTING A SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH OF TIME. ALSO...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PASSING WELL N OF THE REGION...UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. THUS...DESPITE A SHORT TERM LOW PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE VCNTY CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE WANING RAPIDLY. ..RACY.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29078335 31788162 29038197 28668264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 25 00:57:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 19:57:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411250059.iAP0x7E05758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250058 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH AND NRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 906... VALID 250058Z - 250130Z LOW PROBABILITIES OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST/ISOLD TORNADO EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL OH THROUGH 02-03Z. EARLIER TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THAT TRACKED FROM SERN IND TO THE OH BORDER WERE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT THAT SURGED SWD. THESE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO PULSE AS THEY APPROACH THE SCIOTO RIVER VLY OF SCNTRL OH. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE AND THE 00Z WILMINGTON SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWED A SMALL NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT...BUT CONTINUED COOLING WILL LIKELY BECOME HOSTILE FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE OR TORNADOES. THROUGH 02-03Z...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO EXIST IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LANCASTER-ATHENS- PORTSMOUTH-LANCASTER LINE. ..RACY.. 11/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38158436 40238210 38868195 38298372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 25 01:02:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 20:02:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411250103.iAP13xE07370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250103 MIZ000-INZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IN INTO SRN/CNTRL LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 250103Z - 250400Z OCCASIONALLY MDT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NRN IN/SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...HOWEVER DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE AFTER 03Z. MDT/HEAVY WET SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS NW IN/SRN LOWER MI INTO EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY IN BEH-GRR-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR. THIS SW-NE FOCUSED SNOWFALL IS LARGELY ORIENTED WITH MID LEVEL /800MB-600MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN NW PERIPHERY OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONE... AMIDST RELATIVELY LOW STATIC STABILITY /IE. 00Z DTX RAOB/. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCE IN IR SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. 18Z/21Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL DECREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEWD TRANSITION OF COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE/DIMINISHING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT. THUS...WHILE OCCASIONALLY MDT SNOW WILL PERSIST IN SHORT TERM...DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED REMAINDER OF EVENING...NAMELY AFTER 03Z. ..GUYER.. 11/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 43198608 43998478 44448347 43908331 43768296 43578257 42448365 41218571 40998617 41178656 41498678 41768649 42498631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 25 02:32:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 21:32:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411250234.iAP2Y6E03220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250233 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0833 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 906... VALID 250233Z - 250300Z TORNADO WATCH 906 WILL EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REISSUED. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OH AND NRN KY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS BRIEFLY PULSE AND THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK ATTEMPTS AT SMALL SCALE BOWING SIGNATURES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON INSTABILITY AND TSTMS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS SUCH...THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC. ..RACY.. 11/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN... 38498319 39738232 39758172 39048106 38788202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 06:39:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 01:39:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411280642.iAS6g1E29075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280640 COZ000-UTZ000-281245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 280640Z - 281245Z HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HOURLY RATES NEAR 2 INCHES / HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL UT WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL GRADIENT / PACKING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FRONT AND SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT. ..JEWELL.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...SLC... 37831030 39800872 40240788 40160727 39930646 39290628 38050711 37570786 37250868 37591008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 16:44:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 11:44:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411281646.iASGkEE25848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281644 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281644 NEZ000-COZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281644Z - 282245Z A BAND OF HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR MDT-HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS AND NERN CO TOWARDS 00Z...WITH THE HVY SNOW BAND LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED NARROW BAND /10-20 MILES WIDE/ OF MDT-HVY SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM SDY TO 10 N OF LBF TO HSI. A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WILL SUPPORT HIGH SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS AROUND 15:1. THIS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF A VERY FOCUSED BAND OF HVY SNOW...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT OF VISIBILITIES/SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN A FEW MILE DISTANCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND. THIS BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW MATCHES UP WELL WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WAA SUPPORTED BY 50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 3 KM LAYER EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER DATA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX CENTERED OVER NEB AND MID LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ZONE IN THE 600-650 MB LAYER WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT RAPID DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. GIVEN SLOW SEWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND EWD MOVEMENT OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DRY SLOT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE MID LEVEL FORCING/HVY SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS AREAS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WRN NEB SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN HVY SNOW IN THE 17-20Z TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS... 41270360 42180357 41969974 41389664 40219615 40319745 40830260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 16:48:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 11:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411281650.iASGocE27445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281649 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 281649Z - 282245Z LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO MDT-HVY SNOW IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NERN CO/NWRN KS AND FAR SWRN NEB. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED FOR P-TYPE TO BE -FZDZ ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NWRN KS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT-HVY SNOW ACROSS SWRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN KS BEGINNING BETWEEN 21-00Z. STRONG UPPER JET LOCATED OVER NEB WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED FAVORING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN CO/NWRN KS. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CO REDEVELOPS SEWD INTO SWRN KS...THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ECENTRAL CO/SWRN KS. MDT BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEPENING OF FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE 800-700 MB LAYER. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER WHERE THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU... 39710424 40560353 40640162 40060072 39140130 38800218 38820372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 23:27:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 18:27:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411282329.iASNToE29356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282328 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-290530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2490 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND SWRN/SCENTRAL IA...FAR NCENTRAL/NWRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 282328Z - 290530Z BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF SCENTRAL/SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND POSSIBLY SCENTRAL IA THROUGH 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING IN STRENGTH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW DUE TO PRESENCE OF EWD MOVING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. A WELL ESTABLISHED FOCUSED HVY SNOW BAND DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS ALONG 600-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN TO 0.5 IN/HR BETWEEN 03-06Z AS THE SNOWFALL BAND MOVES INTO SCENTRAL IA AND POSSIBLY NWRN AND NCENTRAL MO AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. AREAS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WILL SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN HEAVY SNOWFALL BETWEEN 00-03Z AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES EAST AND REDEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO KS. ..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40099895 41399892 41719615 41009244 39819207 39989334 40129733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 29 00:27:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 19:27:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411290030.iAT0U8E19233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290029 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...SERN CO...WRN KS...AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 290029Z - 290630Z MDT-HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING/DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF SERN CO WITH AROUND 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER SWRN KS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NEB/IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED UPPER ASCENT THROUGH THE EVENING. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SERN CO/SWRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 06Z. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/KS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF HVY SNOW SO FAR ACROSS WRN KS. HOWEVER...MDT-STRONG SLOPED ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE -10 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SWRN KS AND LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM WILL FAVOR THE PTYPE AS FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. A LEAD VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL CO/NWRN NM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SERN CO AROUND 06Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESPOND AND BECOME MORE NELY ACROSS SERN CO AND FAVOR INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND SNOWFALL RATES INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND NRN RATON RIDGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD...MID LEVEL FORCING WILL AID IN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW FARTHER EAST INTO SWRN KS. INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN CO INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW AROUND 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 11/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37989954 36910067 36210137 35750236 35840351 36180437 36620495 37650563 38450565 38990534 38520394 37900330 38410242 39130203 39750032 39599939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 01:51:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 20:51:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411300153.iAU1rNE12138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300152 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-300445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 300152Z - 300445Z DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO HVY SNOW BAND ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR CDS-OKC-PNC BETWEEN 06-09Z. BEFORE MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS...THE PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IN SUBFREEZING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL OK BEFORE ONSET OF SNOWFALL. LATEST IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SWRN/WRN TX IS A RESULT OF INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECHO DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON LOCAL RADAR FROM LBB FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT MID LEVELS WERE MOISTENING AND THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING THROUGH THE -14 TO -16 DEG C LAYER /AROUND 600 MB/ WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT-HVY SNOW BY LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS LAYER FOCUSES ALONG AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN TX AS EVIDENT BY RECENT BACKING FLOW IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER FROM THE VWP AT FREDERICK OK. BEFORE MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS...EXPECT INCREASE IN LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF SFC FREEZING LINE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM OKC TO LAW BY 06Z GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION. ..CROSBIE.. 11/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 33430160 34640034 36329867 37159736 36069650 34739698 33989809 33419872 32719952 32860100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 23:49:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 18:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411302351.iAUNpoE23893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302350 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI/NRN IL/NRN IN/LOWER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 302350Z - 010545Z RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NRN IN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA THROUGH MID EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY INCREASE TO 1 IN/HOUR IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW NEAR EVANSVILLE WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA/ERN KS/SW OK PER LATEST WV IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES NEWD NEAR TOLEDO BY 01/06Z. SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE FROM MLI/JVL. HOWEVER...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM UIN TO VYS/ARR WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP IS OCCURRING ATTM. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL IL SPREADING INTO THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO BY 03Z. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF N/NERN IL THIS EVENING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AS THE MAIN SNOW BANDS SPREAD INTO NRN IN AND EVENTUALLY THE SRN LOWER PENINSULA. ..TAYLOR.. 11/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 43028246 40618523 39348844 39909004 41219028 42658972 44358387 44068251 43418227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 00:18:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 19:18:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411010019.iA10JCV02272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010018 TXZ000-OKZ000-010215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010018Z - 010215Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FROM GRAYSON/COOKE/DENTON COUNTIES SWD ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH METROPLEX TO NEAR ACT AND JCT. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL/BRIEF TO WARRANT WW...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SFC DATA FOR ANALYSIS REMAINS VERY LIMITED DUE TO FAA COMMS OUTAGE -- PER LATEST SDM MESSAGES. HOWEVER AVAILABLE DFW/NFW AND OK MESONET OBS...COMBINED WITH FORMER FINE LINE IN REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES...SUGGEST WSW-ENE ORIENTED BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NERN PARKER...NRN TARRANT...SERN DENTON AND W-CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTIES. ANY CELLS WHICH CROSS THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY THEIR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITH BRIEF TORNADO A SMALL POSSIBILITY. OTHER CELLS IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR -- BETWEEN DAL-ACT AS OF 00Z -- MAY ROTATE AS WELL AS THEY MOVES NNEWD TOWARD ERN PORTIONS METROPLEX. FWD VWP HODOGRAPH MODIFIED FOR DFW SFC WIND YIELDS AROUND 200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER...WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY LESS IN FWD RAOB. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN WEAK...UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND RESIDUAL DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY. 00Z FWD RAOB AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER METROPLEX AND SWD THROUGH ACT AREA...DECREASING NWD INTO LOWER THETAE AIR MASS NEAR RED RIVER. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 31019867 32239842 32659788 33139741 33779713 33749633 33509602 32689616 31659679 30979774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 01:19:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 20:19:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411010120.iA11KTV23424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010119 COZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PALMER RIDGE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF E-CENTRAL CO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 010119Z - 010545Z HVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 04-09Z ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT AREAS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH RATES OF 1"/HR LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING NNWLY SURFACE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. DEEP THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CO TONIGHT WHILE DIGGING SWD ACROSS NM IN RESPONSE TO UPWIND 80-90KT 500MB JET MOVING FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO AZ THIS EVENING. RECENT ETA RUNS INDICATE A 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM. LEE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NM IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ALOFT. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE/CLOUD BAND ON IR IMAGERY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AROUND 06Z AND LIKELY INTENSIFY AS DIVERGENCE INCREASES ALOFT. CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL PROFILES FOR SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 05-06Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER OF 2.5 KFT BETWEEN 05-09Z WITHIN STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REGION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS FOR SNOW GROWTH. THE 12/18Z ETA RUNS AND 21Z RUC DEPICT HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT NEAR O.1" ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DEN/LIC WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO PERIODS OF HVY SNOW AND 1"/HR ACCUMULATIONS ONCE GROUND TEMPS SUFFICIENTLY COOL. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN LEE CYCLONE AND BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG NLY WIND GUSTS ALONG THE PALMER RIDGE TO 40KT AND POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES SWD AND PRECIP RATES LESSEN TOWARD 09Z. ..BANACOS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU... 39380509 39890497 40090475 40130427 40050359 39360340 39160341 38930348 38750367 38700397 38680479 38730507 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 11:40:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 06:40:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011141.iA1BfFV09080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011140 LAZ000-TXZ000-011245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011140Z - 011245Z MARGINAL THREATS FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR ISOLD TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/SERN TX. LINE OF TSTMS HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR HUNTSVILLE SWWD TO JUST WEST OF ANGLETON. THESE TSTMS WERE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HOUSTON RADAR SHOWS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ACCELERATING EWD FROM LARGE PCPN SHIELD LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL TX. GIVEN STORM MOTION NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE APPROACHING OUTFLOW THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL SHORTLY BE UNDERCUT. THUS...DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /0-1KM SRH 110-150 M2/S2/ FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME. AGGREGATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE BASED WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY. BUT...THE MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE UNDERCUT BY THE APPROACHING COLD POOL...LEAVING HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..RACY.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28979572 30129570 31569528 31539384 29249378 28399542 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 15:17:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 10:17:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011518.iA1FIRV12430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011517 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011517 ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-011715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AR...NW LA...SE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011517Z - 011715Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CELLS TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AR...NW LA AND SE MO. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX EXTENDING NWD THROUGH WRN AR WITH STRONG STORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS WHY THERE IS NOT MUCH LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM LITTLE ROCK CURRENTLY SHOW VERY STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 40 KT. THIS IS DUE TO THE BACKED SSELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS STRONG SHEAR COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. IN ADDITION...THE FAST STORM MOTION TO THE NNE OF 40 TO 45 KT WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV... 31589401 33719316 36009220 37489148 37649085 37299057 36189080 35209130 31929282 31189348 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 17:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 12:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011759.iA1HxdV16110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011758 NMZ000-012230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL NM CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 011758Z - 012230Z SNOW INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NM WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1"/HR ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 21Z FROM TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES SSWWD THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. A VERY COLD/SHARP 500MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN MT SWWD THRU ERN AZ/WRN NM THIS MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN NM. THIS CLOSED CENTER WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO/FAR WRN TX BY 02/00Z AS STRONG UPWIND JET STREAK /85KT 500MB WIND AT FGZ PER MORNING RAOB/ RESULTS IN FURTHER DIGGING OF THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT INCREASED LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NM AT 17Z. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL PLUME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL NOT BE TAPPED...FOCUSED ASCENT THROUGH 700MB DEFORMATION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF 60KT NLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVIDENT ON PUB VAD IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD INTO E-CENTRAL NM WITH TIME WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COOL. SURFACE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 39KT AT CAO AND RTN PER 17Z OBS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 03Z. STRONGEST UVV IS EXPECTED DURING 21-03Z DURING WHICH TIME 1"/HR SNOW RATES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. BASED ON 700MB ETA FORECAST...SOME UPSLOPE FLOW IS POSSIBLE INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO MTNS AS 60-70KT SPEED MAX BUILDS SWD INTO NM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES. ..BANACOS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 35180559 35280395 35130373 34280385 33590436 32470564 33330664 34180658 35030628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 19:11:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 14:11:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411011912.iA1JCeV28095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011911 ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NCNTRL LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875... VALID 011911Z - 012045Z A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 875. A REPLACEMENT WILL BE CONSIDERED ONCE THE CURRENT WATCH NEARS EXPIRATION AT 21Z. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO NNE FROM NCNTRL LA TO SE MO WITH STRONG CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH SOME BOWING IN THE LINE ACROSS NRN LA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET ORGANIZING AT 700 MB JUST BEHIND THE LINE AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE ACCELERATION OF THE LINE TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS NE LA WHERE A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 31199308 31879300 32959262 34009221 35259163 35349064 33919104 31669181 31169204 31069261 31149314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 20:25:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 15:25:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411012026.iA1KQPV06874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012025 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012025 ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-012200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SE MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012025Z - 012200Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS ACROSS SRN IL AND SE MO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH A FEW ROTATING CELLS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING SE OF ST LOUIS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS RELATIVELY STRONG IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVER ERN MO AND SW IL AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED NEAR THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING CELLS ARE MOVING TO THE NE AROUND 40 KTS. ..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 39028815 37798840 36098937 35959018 36409001 37258942 38668904 39638886 39508815 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 23:57:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 18:57:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411012358.iA1NwPV15178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012357 TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...SERN AR...NWRN MS...MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876... VALID 012357Z - 020200Z LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 2345Z FROM WRN TIP KY SSWWD ACROSS MEM METRO THEN TO NEAR GLH...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS EVENING. TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND THREATS ARE LIKEWISE DIMINISHING BUT...GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND UNTIL WW EXPIRES OR CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF WW. PRE-STORM AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OVER MS PORTION WW WHERE RESIDUAL DIABATIC HEATING -- TEMPS MID-UPPER 70S F -- CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 300-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED CELLS...WITH UP TO ABOUT 400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH AS DERIVED FROM MEM VWP HODOGRAPH. BAND OF PRECIP HAS PASSED ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL AND SERN AR...SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZING AIR MASS AND REDUCING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. ACCORDINGLY WW CAN BE CLEARED AWAY W OF MS RIVER...WHEREVER IT HAS NOT BEEN DISCONTINUED LOCALLY ALREADY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36469037 36468892 33618998 33629138 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 00:34:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 19:34:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020035.iA20ZSV30794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020034 MSZ000-LAZ000-020230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL LA...EXTREME WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020034Z - 020230Z MARGINAL TORNADO AND STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF FRONT. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CALDWELL PARISH SWWD ACROSS AEX/LCH AREAS...MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MAINLY LINEAR IN MODE BUT WITH BRIEF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. SMALL DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SRN LA ARE IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR I-10...DECREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NERN LA. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME...CENTRAL/SRN LA WILL REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 F...LOW LCL AND ONLY SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AT SFC. PROFILER AND SOUNDING WINDS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...INCREASING NWD AS BUOYANCY DECREASES...AND AROUND 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29789331 30399303 32069227 32649190 32879142 32979115 32979084 32759066 32439066 32009084 31009121 29839181 29599197 29459216 29329248 29389307 29509351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 00:55:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 19:55:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020055.iA20tqV06564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020054 TXZ000-OKZ000-020330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020054Z - 020330Z TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER SPS/MWL AREAS THEN SSWWD ACROSS PORTIONS TX HILL COUNTRY. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS I-35 CORRIDOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TSTMS ARE FORMING AS ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- DPVA AHEAD OF ELP-AREA MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- IMPINGES UPON SFC WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY PRIOR FROPA AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BUT STILL CONTAINS SUFFICIENT THETAE TO SUPPORT TSTMS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F. FWD RAOB APPEARS TO BE JUST E OF COOLING ALOFT...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS JUST W-SW OF THERE SHOW 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS BUT 80-90 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY 70-80 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX-- WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. ALTHOUGH DRT RAOB CONTAINED APPARENTLY SPURIOUS SUPERADIABATIC LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 830-930 MB...ADJUSTMENT STILL INDICATES THAT LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT HAS REACHED THAT FAR SE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 30579911 31919872 33049850 34349839 34479776 34099686 33349667 32509662 31489695 30419845 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 03:37:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 22:37:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020338.iA23c7V13444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020337 LAZ000-TXZ000-020630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COAST SWWD TO PORTIONS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 020337Z - 020630Z HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASING ATTM OVER HOU AREA...AND SHOULD SHIFT/EXPAND EWD ALONG MID/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN ONE MORE NE-SW BANDS MAY PRODUCE 1.5-2.5 INCH/HOUR RATES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR FOR SHORT PERIODS. A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST WHERE INFLOW LAYER IS DEEPEST IN PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MS SWWD ACROSS SWRN LA THEN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM OFFSHORE GLS. FRONT HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM THERE SWWD TO MATAGORDA/CORPUS CHRISTI BAYS...AND MAY BE RETREATING NWD TOWARD SOME OF GLS-PSX COASTAL AREA BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT THOSE STATIONS. BOUNDARY STILL IS MOVING SWD AS COLD FRONT ACROSS DEEP S TX COUNTIES OF ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS. THIS SWRN FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE REINFORCED IN 3-4 HOURS BY OUTFLOW-REINFORCED ARCTIC FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD THROUGH SAT/COT AREAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST PW 1-1.25 INCH OVER MIDDLE TX COAST...AND 1.75-2 INCHES FROM HOU-CRP LINE EWD. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD WITH BANDS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY RESULT IN TRAINING OF ECHOES THAT LOCALLY EXACERBATES HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE FAVOR ROTATING STORMS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND RISK OF OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS NEAR GULF COAST AREA FRONT. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE N OF THAT FRONT IN ZONE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF TX COASTAL PLAIN. ..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29029741 29749643 30579504 30709377 30549353 30619250 30129315 29789288 29439320 29229337 29109379 28889421 28739452 28489516 28309605 27819681 26809919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 09:12:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 04:12:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020912.iA29CwV15205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020912 TXZ000-NMZ000-021315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE THROUGH E CNTRL NM CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 020912Z - 021315Z SNOWFALL WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM THROUGH 15Z. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WAKE OF ARCTIC SURGE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FROM THE NRN PARTS OF W TX... ERN NM INTO MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET LIFTING NWD THROUGH W CNTRL TX WILL MAINTAIN ASCENT IN VICINITY OF SW-NE ORIENTED DEFORMATION AXIS FROM ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS VERTICAL MOTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW BANDS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN PARTS OF W TX. HOWEVER...SNOW IS INCREASING A LITTLE FARTHER E FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE SWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TAKE ON A MORE BANDED STRUCTURE WITH TIME. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO RESULT IN POCKETS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL. ..DIAL.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 35890074 35250070 34340163 33480245 33870406 35180350 36030169 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 09:30:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 04:30:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411020931.iA29VCV21445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020930 MSZ000-LAZ000-021130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 020930Z - 021130Z MARGINAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO MAY PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MS SWWD THROUGH SWRN LA. STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS LINE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW MS WHERE LATEST RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE JACKSON VWP SHOWS VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOWS 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2 BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FORCED ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING COLD POOL AND ARE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29909322 30759207 32169085 32469033 31868991 29799151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 15:52:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 10:52:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411021553.iA2FrfV23273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021552 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021552 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN LA INTO EXTREME SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021552Z - 021745Z A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND EXTREME SERN MS. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS WARM...VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND SBCAPE IS IN THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA EWD INTO AL AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL TX. NEGATIVE ASPECT AT THIS TIME IS PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PREVALENT OVER SWRN PARTS OF LA...THIS IS BEHIND MAIN FRONTAL BAND. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN LA MAY AID IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING SURFACE INFLOW AHEAD OF STRONG BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LCH SWD INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...NEXT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... 29029217 29549219 29969194 30229163 30399120 30838984 30918898 30208827 29058859 28538939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 09:40:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 04:40:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411030941.iA39fLV10502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030940 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-031145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS AND EXTREME SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030940Z - 031145Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS FROM SERN LA THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN AL THIS MORNING. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW. REMNANT OUTFLOW/COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SRN LA EWD INTO THE MS AND AL BOOT HEELS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE NW GULF. A LINE OF STORMS PERSISTS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTING NWD OVER THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. S OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT WITH MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR (25 TO 30 KT) WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL FRONT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS WITHIN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE... MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EAST AT 25 TO 30 KT. RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF THE LINE...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE OVERALL THREAT IS LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 11/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29229041 31119023 31678863 30608773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 20:56:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 15:56:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411032057.iA3Kvcg11809@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032056 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-032230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CST WED NOV 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MS...WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032056Z - 032230Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN FAR ERN AL WILL HAVE A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS WRN AL. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SE MS AND SW AL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOIST TONGUE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO ABOUT 200O J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THIS AREA SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK BUT SFC WINDS ARE BACKED ACROSS SWRN AL. THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...BOWING SEGMENTS MAY HAVE A BRIEF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 14,000 FT SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 11/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32918853 33578824 33638766 33188715 32168721 30998754 30678804 30728855 31238864 32338862 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 19:58:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 14:58:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411101958.iAAJwcg26370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101957 OKZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW...CNTRL OK CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL VALID 101957Z - 102200Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE/STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW. CLOSED LOW IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER PROGRESSING EAST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION...ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. AS THIS MOTION CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW... WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...LIKELY INTO AREAS NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY BY 11/00Z. RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED ZONE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH TONGUE OF MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ENID/STILLWATER AREAS. AS STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 K/KG. DESPITE LOW VALUES OF CAPE... STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZATION/ INTENSITY OF STORMS...WITH COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WHICH MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36669883 36819843 36729726 36349646 35739629 35469686 35029722 34419802 34759877 36009881 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 23:27:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 18:27:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411102327.iAANRug05523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102327 OKZ000-110130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 877... VALID 102327Z - 110130Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FROM N CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK FOLLOWED BY AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND. EARLY THIS EVENING...LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK JUST E OF NORMAN. THE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. BASED ON THIS STORM MOTION.. THE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM VWP DATA RANGES FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DESPITE LIMITED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXIS AND MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN A DECREASING TREND. ..DIAL.. 11/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34649710 36299792 36329681 34709636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 02:07:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 21:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411110208.iAB27Yg01506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110206 OKZ000-110330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 877... VALID 110206Z - 110330Z THREAT FOR MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z. A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUES DEVELOPING ACROSS E CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS EXTREME ERN OK INTO WRN AR. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...AND THE STORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ..DIAL.. 11/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34169643 35349609 36469593 36289528 35089511 34279541 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 20:30:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 15:30:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411112030.iABKUjg05751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112029 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-112230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA/E CNTRL...SRN MS...SE AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL VALID 112029Z - 112230Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS REACHED 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING INCREASING SURFACE- BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION LIKELY WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON... PERHAPS ENHANCED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AROUND/ SHORTLY AFTER 12/00Z WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR.. 11/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30038923 30329099 30929141 32659053 33348991 33118937 33258847 32838702 32058673 31368723 30798736 30338718 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 08:24:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 03:24:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411130824.iAD8Ong04984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130823 NMZ000-131430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NM CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 130823Z - 131430Z SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS ERN SOCORRO...WRN LINCOLN...AND MUCH OF TORRANCE COUNTIES. DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO EARLY TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ATOP ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SWRN NM COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER LIFT SPREADING NNEWD. DIABATIC AND ADIABATIC COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRR NWD TO LVS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO SPREAD EAST INTO SERN NM LATER THIS MORNING AS STRONGER ASCENT AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THESE AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME...MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTH OF WHITE SANDS TO EAST OF ABQ THROUGH DAYBREAK. PROXIMITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY BOOST SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z/8AM MST. ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 33040578 33160659 33790685 34890644 35550578 35500490 34840424 34120399 33280459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 18:12:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 13:12:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411131813.iADID2g18015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131812 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 131812Z - 132315Z MDT TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NE/ECNTRL NM THROUGH APPROX 21Z...WITH SNOW SPREADING/INCREASING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VORT MAXIMA TRANSITIONING NEWD ACROSS SE NM/WEST TX...WITH EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE REGION. DPVA/UPPER JET INDUCED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH ELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN MDT/HVY SNOW ACROSS NE/ECNTRL NM -- NAMELY IN LVS/TCC/CVS CORRIDOR -- THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER NE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE NM INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND NW HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE....NAMELY N/W OF AMA. IN THESE AREAS...DYNAMIC COOLING AND/OR ALREADY SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOW LEVELS /SFC WET BULB ZERO TEMPS NEAR 32F/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. 15Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH PROFILES...AS NET UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR. ..GUYER.. 11/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35000533 35890526 36680421 37230272 37030144 36250097 35410140 34330266 34090390 34140466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 05:25:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 00:25:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411200527.iAK5R3E01502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200526 TXZ000-200730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200526Z - 200730Z A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INLAND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE STORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SEEN ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL TX AND THIS IS RESULTING IN SFC PRESSURE FALLS. VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE HOUSTON AREA SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS THE CELLS TRACK NEWD. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ROTATING CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28219685 28439710 28579719 29059700 29479666 29649629 29829608 30069540 30119483 30019465 29719449 29349457 28929486 28419582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 18:21:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 13:21:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411201823.iAKINqE08548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201823 TXZ000-202100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND S CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201823Z - 202100Z POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF S TX. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT MID-DAY A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM OFF THE SE TX COAST WSWWD TO JUST S OF VICTORIA TO NEAR LAREDO. A LONG FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX AND CONTINUES TO MITIGATE SURFACE HEATING. THINNING/BREAKS IN CLOUDS ALONG COASTAL S TX HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S JUST S OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. RUC DATA SHOW NOSE OF WARMER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NEWD THROUGH COASTAL S TX WITH TIME...RESULTING IN AN INVERSION AROUND 2.6 KM. THIS WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND CAPE IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER...SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...AND HAS POTENTIAL TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE N OF THE BOUNDARY INTO S CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL. HOWEVER... OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE. ..DIAL.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28349671 28789560 29259599 28999771 28159829 27789762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 19:54:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 14:54:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411201956.iAKJuOE12742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201955 TXZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201955Z - 202200Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK SLY FLOW ABOVE MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR IS MAINTAINING FEED OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS SRN EDGE OF LEAD VORT MAX OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF NERN TX WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED CONVECTION PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30569840 30279974 30350067 30980122 31640092 32469968 32959819 32689680 31789649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 23:10:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 18:10:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411202312.iAKNC5E21594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202311 TXZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202311Z - 210115Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO COULD POSE SOME CHANCE OF HAIL OR A BRIEF WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE SUPERCELLS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK NORTH/SOUTH CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS DEWITT AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND NORTHERNMOST CELL WILL TRACK ON OR NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS LAVACA COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO TRAILING PORTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THE REGION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO AT LEAST BE MAINTAINED... AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN IMPULSE BRUSHES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS A REGION OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 0-1KM SRH BETWEEN 150-200 M2/S2. RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE TORNADO/SEVERE PARAMETERS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE...AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING...WOULD SUGGEST THAT OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME. ..CARBIN.. 11/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879572 28409649 28589718 29049722 29549713 29729660 29839565 29259508 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 02:04:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 21:04:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411210206.iAL264E12742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210205 COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-210800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN CO...SERN UT...NERN AZ CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 210205Z - 210800Z SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1-2 IN/HR RANGE TONIGHT. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER A BROAD AREA DUE TO VERY STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG COLD FRONT. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOUTH FACING SLOPES WILL BENEFIT FROM INCREASING UPSLOPE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SURFACE DEWP0INTS IN THE 30S UPSTREAM...MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. 00Z FGZ AND GJT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGESTING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BURSTS WITH LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FT IN GENERAL WITH HEAVIEST RATES ABOVE 7000 FT. ..JEWELL.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...GJT...FGZ...SLC... 37860724 37710678 37400654 37050644 37030735 37030832 37370873 37580928 37310979 36841005 36340992 36020943 35700959 35881035 36331048 37031065 37451024 37811006 38040972 38210949 38560938 38570914 38250876 38070844 38000811 38050774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 11:14:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 06:14:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211116.iALBGOE01007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211115 CAZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL RANGE OF SRN CA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 211115Z - 211715Z SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET WITH RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR BETWEEN 15-18Z. UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS SRN NV WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAX BY 18Z. FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 90 KT JET STREAK WILL FOCUS VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA...WITH STRONG 90-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE INCREASING FURTHER ENHANCING SNOW RATES. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -6C OR LOWER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 18Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY 18Z. DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES SUPPORT THIS. GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE...SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 15-18Z WHEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MAXIMUM VERTICAL LIFT AND A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION. ..TAYLOR.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX... 32721625 32661677 33951736 34431714 34431687 34181639 33771629 33211629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 14:15:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 09:15:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211417.iALEH8E27390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211416 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211416 CAZ000-211615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN COASTAL AREA OF SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211416Z - 211615Z THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOS POSSIBLE COASTAL AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 17Z. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN CA AHEAD OF SWD DIGGING UPPER LOW. FRONT AT 14Z LOCATED FROM NWRN SAN DIEGO COUNTY SWWD WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SAN DIEGO AREA NEXT 2 HOURS. WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND UPWARD MOTION COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG WITH BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..HALES.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX... 33251742 33341705 33221685 32991669 32781665 32621668 32451693 32501719 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 16:29:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 11:29:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211630.iALGUuE05426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211630 UTZ000-AZZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NCNTRL THROUGH NW AZ INTO SW UT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211630Z - 212230Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY TO 2-2.5 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL THROUGH NW AZ AND INTO SW UT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 6000 FT EAST OF A KINGMAN TO ST GEORGE LINE. SNOW ELEVATIONS WILL BE LOCALLY AOB 5000 FT WEST OF THIS LINE BUT MAY RISE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. THIS MORNING A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NWRN AZ NEWD THROUGH S CNTRL UT. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH SRN CA AND INTO WRN AZ...MAINTAINING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...FRONTOGENETIC AND Q-G FORCING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW THROUGH AZ...ENHANCING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT. THE STRONG Q-G FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THE STRONG SLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE PIVOTING NWWD WITH TIME...AND SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS OVER NW AZ MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF... 34831155 35311424 37621329 38431201 38391072 36371170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 19:14:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 14:14:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411211916.iALJGNE32583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211915 LAZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211915Z - 212115Z THREAT OF A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN LA NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THREAT APPEARS TO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ALLEN/JEFFERSON_DAVIS COUNTY LINE. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...THE AMBIENT 0-1 KM SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY. ALSO EWD STORM MOTIONS ARE SUCH THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE BOUNDARY. THESE FACTORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LFC HEIGHTS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 11/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30259230 30299321 30919205 30809114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 12:17:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 07:17:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411221219.iAMCJEE06431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221218 TXZ000-221345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221218Z - 221345Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA FROM NEAR SAT TO HOU DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR TORNADO. WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN TX EXTENDED FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER /60 SE DRT/ EWD TO 20 NW PSX AND THEN NEWD...BUT INLAND OF THE UPPER TX COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM COT TO HDO/SAT AREA...AND THEN TRACKING ENEWD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER GONZALES AND AUSTIN COUNTIES...AND HAVE PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION...ESPECIALLY THE STORM OVER AUSTIN COUNTY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS MOVE EWD EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WARM FRONT. THIS THREAT WILL BE DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ..PETERS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... 29279499 29219634 29069821 29199901 29749921 30159857 30229739 30689607 30759456 30209403 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 16:47:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 11:47:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411221649.iAMGnkE20670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221649 LAZ000-TXZ000-221845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221649Z - 221845Z 16Z SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM/COASTAL FRONT BECOMING WELL DEFINED FROM CENTRAL LA SWWD INTO NRN PART OF HOU AREA AND THEN WWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 TO NEAR SAT. LOW CENTER NEAR COT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED STALLED FRONT EXTENDING INTO NERN TX/WRN AR. WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY MOIST AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER HEATING WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. SUPERCELL HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER NRN PORTIONS OF HOU DURING THE PAST HOUR...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT EVIDENT ON VWP FROM KHGX. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS CELL. WEAKENING CIN AND INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SUGGEST FURTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WW DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH TORNADO THREAT INCREASED NEAR THE FRONT. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR NEAR VCT...STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28389800 28669910 29379892 29919717 30789386 30679296 29779336 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 18:55:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 13:55:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411221857.iAMIvEE31911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221856 LAZ000-TXZ000-222000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 879... VALID 221856Z - 222000Z ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE. THEREFORE...WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITHIN THE HOUR. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE HOU AREA WWD ALONG I-10 TO JUST SOUTH OF SAT. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...MODEST HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S HAVE REMOVED CAPPING AND BOOSTED MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN 45-50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2...STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28389800 28669910 29379892 29919717 30419393 29829375 28969462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:30:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:30:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222132.iAMLWME29707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222131 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN NM...FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222131Z - 230000Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL...AND A FEW OF THESE MAY REACH MINIMAL SEVERE CRITERIA. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING OVER THE AREA AND CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COMING OUT OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND THEREFORE INCREASE INSTABILITY. A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE HELP OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ... 31370956 32550988 33401010 33660911 33650791 33180565 32910510 32310487 31270526 30940546 31420610 31730641 31770818 31340822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:33:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:33:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222134.iAMLYsE30861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222134 LAZ000-TXZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 222134Z - 222330Z TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WITH POSSIBLE TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 15 KT...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF HOUSTON METRO. VWP FROM KHGX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELL SEEMS TO BE TRACKING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY. CAPE AND CIN PARAMETERS SUGGEST THIS CELL MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF HOUSTON. OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING/DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WW ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD OUT OF CENTRAL TX AND WEST OF GULF BREEZE EVIDENT ON KCRP. AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28379642 28369822 28899828 29919717 30419393 29829375 29169438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:44:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:44:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222146.iAMLkDE04892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222131 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AZ...MUCH OF SRN NM...FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222131Z - 230000Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HAIL...AND A FEW OF THESE MAY REACH MINIMAL SEVERE CRITERIA. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING OVER THE AREA AND CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT COMING OUT OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND THEREFORE INCREASE INSTABILITY. A FEW CELLS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE HELP OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ..JEWELL.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ... 31370956 32550988 33401010 33660911 33650791 33180565 32910510 32310487 31270526 30940546 31420610 31730641 31770818 31340822  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 21:47:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 16:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411222149.iAMLnME06688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222134 LAZ000-TXZ000-222330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER TX COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 222134Z - 222330Z TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL WITH POSSIBLE TORNADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT 15 KT...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF HOUSTON METRO. VWP FROM KHGX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELL SEEMS TO BE TRACKING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY. CAPE AND CIN PARAMETERS SUGGEST THIS CELL MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF HOUSTON. OTHER CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING/DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WW ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD OUT OF CENTRAL TX AND WEST OF GULF BREEZE EVIDENT ON KCRP. AIRMASS WITHIN WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST. ..EVANS.. 11/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28879530 28379642 28369822 28899828 29919717 30419393 29829375 29169438  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 00:03:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 19:03:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411230005.iAN054E06930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230003 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-230230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS...CNTRL/SRN LA...SW/CNTRL MS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/TORNADO WATCH 880... VALID 230003Z - 230230Z TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME... IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT WW 880 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. AS ONE HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHEAST STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND UPSTREAM JET STREAK CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH BASE OF SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ JET STREAK APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INLAND OF MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...BUT THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS THROUGH BROADER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. WHILE BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MUCH OF ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED JUST ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST/ CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE EVENING. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM/MOIST PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY WHICH REMAINS SURFACE-BASED...IN WARM SECTOR NORTHEAST OF VICTORIA TX INTO THE LAKE CHARLES LA AREA ..KERR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28659736 29689664 31029478 32099356 33039195 33039076 32628979 31708960 30659164 30329204 29929306 28949575 28589669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 04:30:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 23:30:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411230431.iAN4VoE26241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230430 TXZ000-230630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL AND WESTERN INTO WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230430Z - 230630Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. EXIT REGION OF VIGOROUS MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...HAS SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING AND INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AS CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG...UP TO 1000 J/KG. ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 06-07Z...WITH STRONGER CELLS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH/EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. THEREAFTER...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE MIDLAND AREA...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE ABILENE VICINITY OVERNIGHT. BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 25-30 KTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CAPE. PRIMARY THREAT LIKELY WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL...WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY BASED ABOVE SLOWLY DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. ..KERR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32000223 33580181 33599994 32779921 31529985 30840007 30390115 30950234 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 08:58:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 03:58:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411230900.iAN90LE20831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230858 TXZ000-231030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881... VALID 230858Z - 231030Z SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z ACROSS WEST TX. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF FST ATTM...WHILE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ELSEWHERE. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 11Z TO THE EAST OF WW 881. CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN TX AS A 70+ MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. SURFACE ANALYSES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATED A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SWRN TX...AND EXTENDED FROM WEST OF LBB TO 25 E MAF TO 40 SW SANDERSON AT 0830Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST ALL OF THE STORMS OVER THIS REGION AND CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF FST ARE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...GREATER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S/ ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF WW 881 SHOULD SUPPORT A BETTER TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN PECOS TO UPTON COUNTIES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF 881. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... 30440302 31850215 32930148 32919965 30430093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 13:05:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:05:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231307.iAND7LE19444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231306 TXZ000-231430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231306Z - 231430Z WW MAY BE NEEDED BY MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SERN TX. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL AFTER 16Z. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NM/ NRN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN OK AND A SECOND ONE ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST IS AIDING IN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NWRN TX AND CENTRAL TX TO JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND AN INCREASING BROAD SLY LLJ OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. SELY SURFACE WINDS AND SLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /8.4 C/KM PER 12Z CRP SOUNDING/ ALREADY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT AT 12Z CRP SOUNDING FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. AT THAT TIME... TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/CURVED HODOGRAPHS PER 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 0-1 KM SRH AR0UND 200 M2/S2. ..PETERS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32329601 32399480 31699417 30569400 29729402 29029545 29249665 29699784 30089870 31169830 32079709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 13:18:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:18:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231320.iANDKAE25483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231319 TXZ000-231445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 882... VALID 231319Z - 231445Z WW 882 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ..HART.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 31619990 33139886 33589797 33529684 32839708 31609793 31209866 31229952 31350015 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 13:39:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 08:39:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231341.iANDfUE03870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231340 OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM/SE CO/EXTREME WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231340Z - 231945Z SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1-2"/HR ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN NM THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY AFTN. WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOW A VORT MAX ROTATING JUST SW OF ABQ. WITHIN LATEST DEFORMATION BAND MODERATE SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT SFE WITH HEAVY SNOW AT LVS NM. DRY SLOT SEEMS TO BE ERODING CURRENT BAND...BUT A NEW BAND MAY BE FORMING OVER E CNTRL NM/NW TX. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF CURRENT BAND WILL REMAIN INTACT OR ANOTHER WILL FORM...BUT SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC LIFT IS OCCURRING WITH EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW INCREASING SNOW RATES AFTER 15Z FROM SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH UNION COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM LVS AND SURROUNDING SITES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH RATES FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM AS NEEDED. ..TAYLOR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36960202 36150242 35000567 35290635 35810642 36380584 37140464 37560304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 15:14:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 10:14:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231516.iANFGGE22195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231515 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231515 OKZ000-TXZ000-231745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...E-CENTRAL/SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231515Z - 231745Z BOWING LINE OF TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 15Z FROM WRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX NWD ACROSS LOVE COUNTY OK -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS RED RIVER REGION FROM I-35 EWD...AND ACROSS ADJOINING PORTIONS N TX AND SRN OK. EXPECT OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION -- NW OF WW 883 -- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ABOVE SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SWRN LA...ARCHING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WW 883...AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. EXPECT NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS SFC-700 MB...BENEATH LAYER OF 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...TO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG JUST NE OF DAL TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG I-40 IN ERN OK. VWP/PROFILER WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT THROUGH CAPE BEARING LAYER. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK DIURNAL HEATING OVER RED RIVER AREA OF NE TX/SE OK...EXPECT LAYER OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR SFC TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32259804 33149728 33589702 34189722 34719719 35369647 35509533 35309455 34259455 33559526 33319560 33329611 32379688 32139816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 16:36:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 11:36:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231638.iANGcCE07632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231637 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883... VALID 231637Z - 231830Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EACH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WW AREA...RESULTING IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ATTM WITH PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED STATIONARY FROM SW COT THROUGH WEAK MESOLOW NEAR AUS...THEN AS WARM FRONT NEWD TO FREESTONE COUNTY...ARCHING ESEWD ACROSS POE REGION. COLD FRONT -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW ALONG NRN END -- EXTENDS FROM DFW METROPLEX SWWD TOWARD SJT AREA. SFC TROUGH CONNECTS AUS AREA LOW WITH METROPLEX AREA BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG I-35...AND IS PRESENTLY A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL SEVERE TSTMS. VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAKNESSES IN LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ATTM...BUT HODOGRAPHS SHOULD EXPAND OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG I-35 BOUNDARY. AS WARM SECTOR CINH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BOTH INVOF BOUNDARIES AND S OF WARM FRONT...MOVING NEWD. TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE GREATEST WITH TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT...AND INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARIES NOW INVOF I-35...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME TORNADIC AS WELL. SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO WILL INCREASE INVOF I-20 WITH APCH OF SFC WARM FRONT. WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29519647 29539905 33309612 33329334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 17:10:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 12:10:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231712.iANHCME26511@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231710 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN LA...CENTRAL/SRN MS AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231710Z - 231945Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS.....A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE...SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON NE OF WW 884. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BULK OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT PER LATEST SWODY1 OUTLOOK. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM MGM-JAN-POE AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE BECAUSE OF DIABATIC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F. THIS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 18Z...1500 J/KG BY ABOUT 21Z...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE INCREASING IN DEPTH AND EXTENT ALONG HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS OVER SRN MS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG BUT SMALL HODOGRAPHS IN 2-5 KM LAYER. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND VECTOR IS SWLY...AS EVIDENT IN ORIENTATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH HCRS. WEAK CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL FORCING THAN THE HCRS...SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WILL POSE THREAT OF HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 32789110 32838762 30948838 31009226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 17:37:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 12:37:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231739.iANHdVE08598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231738 LAZ000-TXZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/WRN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 884... VALID 231738Z - 231945Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW AREA AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SFC-BASED BUOYANCY EACH STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEAR AUS NEWD TOWARD ANDERSON COUNTY TX...SEWD TO LFK AREA...THEN GENERALLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA NEAR ESF. MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON S OF WARM FRONT AND AWAY FROM CONVECTION...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIABATIC HEATING FURTHER WEAKENS CAP. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AND INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONT WILL POSE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN ENVIRONMENT OF LOCALLY ENHANCED 0-1 KM SHEAR. SRH 100-150 J/KG NOTED IN THAT LAYER AT PALESTINE PROFILER...AND HODOGRAPH WEAKNESSES EVIDENT ABOVE 1 KM ATTM SHOULD BE REMOVED AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES. SOME TORNADO THREAT ALSO WILL CONTINUE S OF WARM FRONT -- AS EVIDENT IN PERSISTENT GULF SUPERCELL THAT WAS MOVING ONSHORE PORTIONS GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES AS OF 1730Z...IN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW LCL. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28139775 32049460 32059160 28149475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:15:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:15:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231817.iANIHEE29257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231815 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231815Z - 232315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY /E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083 35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:15:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:15:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231817.iANIHTE29367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231816 TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231816Z - 232045Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY THROUGH 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W. AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY SOUNDING PROFILE. EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776 30529865 30150245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:19:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:19:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231821.iANIL8E31507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231815 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231815Z - 232315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY /E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083 35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:19:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:19:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231821.iANILgE31783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231816 TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231816Z - 232045Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY THROUGH 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W. AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY SOUNDING PROFILE. EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776 30529865 30150245  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:20:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:20:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231822.iANIM6E31964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231815 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 231815Z - 232315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY /E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083 35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:20:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:20:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231823.iANINvE01079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231816 TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231816Z - 232045Z TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY THROUGH 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W. AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC. THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY SOUNDING PROFILE. EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776 30529865 30150245  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 18:47:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 13:47:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231849.iANInQE15492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231848 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-232045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL THROUGH NERN TX...NRN/WRN LA...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883...884... VALID 231848Z - 232045Z PERSISTENT/TORNADIC TSTM WITH HYBRID OF HP SUPERCELL AND BOW CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE NEWD FROM ROBERTSON COUNTY ACROSS PORTIONS LEON/MADISON/HOUSTON COUNTIES OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AS IT INTERACTS WITH SFC WARM FRONT. THIS STORM ALSO IS LOCATED NEAR SFC MESOLOW...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER. TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF WWS AS WELL. WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM FREESTONE COUNTY GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NACOGDOCHES AREA INTO CENTRAL LA -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS NE TX AND ALLOW SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO SPREAD INTO ARKLATEX REGION. AS A RESULT...WWS MAY NEED REPLACEMENT WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NRN LA AND PERHAPS SRN AR. LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER SE TX MAY RESTRICT FURTHER SFC DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE COMMON ALREADY ACROSS THIS REGION BASED ON 18Z SHV/LCH/CRP RAOBS AND RUC/ETA-KF MODEL SOUNDINGS. EXPECT KINEMATIC WEAKNESSES IN 2-6 KM AGL PORTION OF HODOGRAPH TO GO AWAY AS LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO APCHG UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL/NERN TX. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...JAN...LCH...CRP... 29519646 29529912 33349610 33309335 28109478 28159766 32049458 32079161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 19:39:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 14:39:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411231940.iANJepE13533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231940 ARZ000-MSZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...EXTREME NERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231940Z - 232115Z SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO. FOR SITUATION IN AREAS NEAR LA BORDER AND SWD...WHERE REPLACEMENT WW IS IMMINENT FOR 883/884...REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437. ETA/RUC MODELS EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THIS REGION SWD BASED ON COMPARISON WITH 18Z SHV RAOB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN AR...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SFC. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL TX -- WILL LIFT NWD INTO AR/LA BORDER REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX. AS THIS OCCURS NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW..ESPECIALLY S OF I-40...BRINGING AT LEAST MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34549373 35589236 35459095 35289046 34839035 34219054 34169085 34189159 34169312 34209389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:14:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:14:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232015.iANKFmE02417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232014 TXZ000-OKZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232014Z - 232245Z THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD FROM FAR SE NM INTO WEST TX. IN SPITE OF 50 DEG F SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX...DEGREE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH -- AS EVIDENT IN -7 DEG C CHANGE AT 500MB BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MAF RAOB -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OF GREATER IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34120281 34710151 34910038 34669965 33589937 32599986 32770122 33180267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:16:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:16:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232018.iANKIEE03994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232017 COR ARZ000-MSZ000-232115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR...EXTREME NWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232017Z - 232115Z CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AR WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO. FOR SITUATION IN AREAS NEAR LA BORDER AND SWD...WHERE REPLACEMENT WW IS IMMINENT FOR 883/884...REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2437. ETA/RUC MODELS EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THIS REGION SWD BASED ON COMPARISON WITH 18Z SHV RAOB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER WRN AR...ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SFC. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL TX -- WILL LIFT NWD INTO AR/LA BORDER REGION AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX. AS THIS OCCURS NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW..ESPECIALLY S OF I-40...BRINGING AT LEAST MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... 34549373 35589236 35459095 35289046 34839035 34219054 34169085 34189159 34169312 34209389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:21:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:21:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232022.iANKMuE06621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232014 TXZ000-OKZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232014Z - 232245Z THREAT FOR ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING ACROSS WEST TX. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD FROM FAR SE NM INTO WEST TX. IN SPITE OF 50 DEG F SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF NW TX...DEGREE OF MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH -- AS EVIDENT IN -7 DEG C CHANGE AT 500MB BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MAF RAOB -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...MUCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OF GREATER IN 700-500 MB LAYER SUGGEST ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 34120281 34710151 34910038 34669965 33589937 32599986 32770122 33180267  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 20:40:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 15:40:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232042.iANKg4E18382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232041 GAZ000-ALZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN AL...WRN/CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232041Z - 232245Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD 20-30 KT ACROSS REGION WITH INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM SRN SC WWD ACROSS MCN AREA TO NEAT TCL...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MS...AND SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-1800 J/KG OVER CENTRAL MS...DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT TO AROUND 1000 J/KG CENTRAL GA...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG BUT SMALL 2-5 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BUT WEAK CINH SHOULD PERMIT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO FORM OVER AL AND MOVE EWD INTO GA. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 32528837 33168799 33798611 33918491 33498332 32988309 32338357 31378536 31528821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 21:20:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 16:20:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232122.iANLMCE08756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232121 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL/SERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...SRN/CENTRAL AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885... VALID 232121Z - 232315Z SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVIDENT ATTM OVER POTIONS SE TX...N OF I-10. THIS ACTIVITY -- ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR -- SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD AND NEWD ACROSS SABINE RIVER REGION AND INTO W-CENTRAL/SWRN LA DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF TSTMS AND PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LA...SRN AR AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 150-200 J/KG SRH IN SFC-1 KM LAYER...BASED ON REGIONAL VWP. AIR MASS FROM SRN EDGE OF TSTM CLUSTER SWD INTO GULF IS CHARACTERIZED BY ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG MLCAPE...BASED ON MODIFIED LCH 18Z RAOB. TORNADO POTENTIAL FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL AR IS MORE QUESTIONABLE BASED ON STABILIZING EFFECTS OF LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING EWD FROM WRN AR...WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY N OF WARM FRONT AND SLOWS NWD MOVEMENT OF THAT FRONT. STILL...THIS FRONT MAY MOVE INTO ENOUGH OF S-CENTRAL AND SERN AR TO WARRANT CONTINUANCE OF WW THERE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 34689414 34689027 28989378 28969745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 23:29:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 18:29:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411232331.iANNVDE07397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232330 LAZ000-TXZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/WRN AND CNTRL LA /SE AR/NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 885... VALID 232330Z - 240130Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW. RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED HIGH LEVEL JET STREAKS. THIS AREA OF UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONTINUING TORNADIC ACTIVITY...WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED BENEATH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF LOUISIANA. AS UPSTREAM HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING...30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50 KT...AND LIFT NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG RED RIVER WEST OF TEXARKANA. THIS MAY SUPPORT INCREASING RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF VICKSBURG MS BY AROUND 02-03Z. OTHERWISE...NEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ..KERR.. 11/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... 31039374 31709332 32349268 32689200 32709124 32259130 31259203 30769239 30569335 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 00:24:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 19:24:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240026.iAO0QhE30051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240023 TXZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 887... VALID 240023Z - 240230Z CONTINUE WW. STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS...GENERALLY IN ARC ALIGNED WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOP AND EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BECOME INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/SURFACE COLD FRONT AND RETREATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AUSTIN AREA. GIVEN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. GROWING COMPLEX/POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED SPREAD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LUFKIN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30199798 31089751 31709624 32309590 32619462 31239424 30309471 30069579 29989716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 00:27:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 19:27:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240029.iAO0TCE31311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240028 TXZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 887... VALID 240028Z - 240230Z CONTINUE WW. STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS...GENERALLY IN ARC ALIGNED WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOP AND EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BECOME INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/SURFACE COLD FRONT AND RETREATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AUSTIN AREA. GIVEN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. GROWING COMPLEX/POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED SPREAD ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF LUFKIN DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30199798 31089751 31709624 32309590 32619462 31239424 30309471 30069579 29989716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 01:16:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:16:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240118.iAO1ISE18354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240117 LAZ000-TXZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2445 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX COASTAL AREAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240117Z - 240215Z EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTIONS OF TORNADO WW 885 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 02-03Z. SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL OVERSPREAD MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN 03-06Z. WITH ENVIRONMENT REMAINING WARM AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST BEYOND CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 885. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT FEW HOURS...HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC THREAT. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 29299776 30019736 30349648 32089546 32339442 32139391 29989379 29449417 28829542 28219675 28359741 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 01:30:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:30:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240132.iAO1WEE24451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240131 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NW OK/SW KS CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 240131Z - 240630Z BAND OF MDT SNOW WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 1 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROX 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES...NAMELY FROM AMA N/NE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT/MDT SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NW OK/SW IN AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A GAG-P28 LINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NW TX...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN FROM NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS IN NW QUADRANT OF LOW. IN ADDITION...18Z/21Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING UPPER DIV ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS REMAINDER OF EVENING OWING TO COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH /AS EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA RAOB/...CORRESPONDING BAND OF MDT SNOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE IN GUY-PYX-BGD-AMA CORRIDOR THROUGH APPROX 03Z. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER NE ACROSS NW OK/SRN KS...PRECIP GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SHALLOW WARM LAYER PERSISTING WITH 01Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED NE-SW FROM PTT TO NEAR PYX. HOWEVER SHORT TERM TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT/MDT SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS FAR NW OK INTO SRN KS. ..GUYER.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36380213 37250085 37939951 37399876 36189979 35330120 35380199 35790226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 01:52:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 20:52:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240154.iAO1sNE01207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240153 MSZ000-LAZ000-240230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN LA INTO CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240153Z - 240230Z TORNADO WW 885 IS BEING REPLACED WITH 2 NEW TORNADO WATCHES. NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF ERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31129320 32279193 32839098 32818934 32418937 30829068 29799221 29719287 30319351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 02:59:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 21:59:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240301.iAO316E30454@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240300 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240300Z - 240500Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:01:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:01:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240302.iAO32rE31427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240302 COR TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240302Z - 240500Z CORRECTED FOR AREA IN HEADER NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:02:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:02:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240304.iAO34YE31940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240300 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240300Z - 240500Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:03:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:03:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240305.iAO35FE32214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240302 COR TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-240500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/NRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 888... VALID 240302Z - 240500Z CORRECTED FOR AREA IN HEADER NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MORE VIGOROUS EMBEDDED STORMS... NOW CENTERED AROUND TUPELO...ARE OCCURRING WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT..WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH BIRMINGHAM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BASED JUST TO COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL/ GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34998890 35878887 36438766 36528638 35908535 35138524 34718547 33998583 33718708 33888806  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 03:13:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 22:13:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240315.iAO3F4E04175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240314 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240314 MSZ000-LAZ000-240515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0914 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LA INTO WRN/CNTRL AND NRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 888...890... VALID 240314Z - 240515Z CONTINUE WWS. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ALONG/JUST EAST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 50 KT LATE THIS EVENING REMAINS FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA THROUGH THE VICINITY OF VICKSBURG MS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO NARROW TONGUE OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31079280 31649202 32509143 33259084 33379030 32848996 31969065 31219093 30729160 30249239 30429303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 04:01:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 23:01:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240402.iAO42xE24148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240402 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240401 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-240600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 889...890... VALID 240401Z - 240600Z CONTINUE WWS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VIGOROUS SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AT AROUND 40 KT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD CLEAR THESE AREAS BY AROUND 06Z. MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELDS FROM TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER ACCELERATION OF SQUALL LINE...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA BY 08-09Z. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 29139509 30139436 31489388 32099366 32669231 32979108 32659053 31479039 30389072 29349115 28749190 28349338 28349510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 05:15:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 00:15:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240516.iAO5GkE20359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240516 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-240715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW...CNTRL THRU N CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891... VALID 240516Z - 240715Z CONTINUE WW 891. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS ALABAMA...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS STRENGTHENING OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SECONDARY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MOBILE AL INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM. SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THIS AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. CORRESPONDING TO THIS DESTABILIZATION...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND FORCING COULD SUPPORT MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LATER TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR...SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ..KERR.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31108865 32158841 33248779 34168731 34478663 34008612 33638626 32978646 32158689 31198731 30248825 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 06:29:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 01:29:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240631.iAO6VSE14293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240630 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-240700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2452 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 240630Z - 240700Z TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SERN MS INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN AL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER SERN LA /ST TAMMANY PARISH/ MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 30 KT. STRONG SLY LLJ (40 KT) OVER SERN LA INTO MS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS STRONG UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION FOR ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NRN TO SWRN LA AT 0630Z. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE VERY STRONG /AROUND 300 M2/S2/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30469086 33168860 33238593 30328776 30248832 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 07:26:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 02:26:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240730.iAO7U3E32303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240728 MSZ000-LAZ000-240800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2453 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LA INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 890... VALID 240728Z - 240800Z TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 890 UNTIL 08-09Z...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SQUALL LINE. ERN PORTIONS OF WW 890 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM CENTRAL MS SWWD INTO SERN LA...WITH A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NERN-SWRN LA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2. DAMAGING WINDS WILL THEN BE LIKELY WITH THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. THE NRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AT 50-60 KT INTO WEST CENTRAL MS...WITH THE SRN PORTION MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT INTO SWRN MS/SERN LA. AT 08Z THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM YAZOO COUNTY MS TO ST LANDRY PARISH LA...AND THEN TO FAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 890 BY 09Z. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30479279 31469191 32399162 32879180 32918891 30419099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 08:42:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 03:42:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240843.iAO8hpE22319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240843 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-240945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS/WRN AL AND SERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891...892...893...894... VALID 240843Z - 240945Z DANGEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES MS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TOWN OF MERIDIAN MS BY 09Z. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL/SERN MS AND SERN LA TO PORTIONS OF WRN AL THROUGH 10Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG ROTATIONS INDICATED WITH SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS...FAVORING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THESE DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AT 50 MPH IN ADVANCE OF A SQUALL LINE WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM WRN MS TO SERN LA AT 0830Z. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31899018 32558960 33298917 33538848 33598751 32138754 31208781 30588861 30519021 30649061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 09:34:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 04:34:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411240936.iAO9aQE17996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240935 ALZ000-MSZ000-241000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 891... VALID 240935Z - 241000Z WW 891 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 10Z...BUT NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN AL. AT 0930Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER MOVING ENEWD AT 40 KT INTO PICKENS COUNTY AL. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER ERN MS INTO AL CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD...WITH THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN AL. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PICKENS COUNTY STORM ARE ALSO MOVING ENE/NE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF OF WW 891 THROUGH 12Z. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADOES...GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-230 M2/S2. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33328858 34158814 34208547 33218547 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 10:56:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 05:56:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241058.iAOAwHE10027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241057 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SWRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 893... VALID 241057Z - 241200Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SRN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ACROSS SERN MS...A PORTION OF SERN LA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SWRN AL. PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD AT 35-45 KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MOIST AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS AIDING IN LOW LCLS...WHILE 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM SERN LA INTO AL IS RESULTING IN VERY STRONG 0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 300-450 M2/S2 FOR TORNADOES. FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...EXTENDING FROM TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AL TO ST CHARLES PARISH LA WILL CONTINUE TO OUTRUN THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN AL TO SERN LA THROUGH 12Z...LEADING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...IF NEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...TORNADOES WOULD BE LIKELY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE PARAMETERS. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30489033 31828893 33278773 33288590 31398701 30458797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 11:34:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 06:34:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241136.iAOBaNE21590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241135 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2457 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 895... VALID 241135Z - 241200Z WW 895 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z...BUT PORTIONS OF SERN LA WHICH INCLUDE THE PARISHES OF ST. BERNARD AND PLAQUEMINES WILL REMAIN UNDER A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES EWD THROUGH 13-14Z. THUS...THESE PORTIONS OF WW 895 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 12Z. PARAMETERS OVER SERN LA REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO DISCRETE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE SHOWING STORM ROTATION...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED LOW-MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ST. BERNARD AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES BY 14Z. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29089076 30518958 30468828 28938829 28858957 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 12:49:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 07:49:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241251.iAOCpKE13492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241250 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-241745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2458 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CENTRAL IL...AND NWRN IND CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 241250Z - 241745Z RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NERN MO THROUGH NWRN IND. SEVERAL HOURS OF HVY WET SNOW WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS STRONGEST FORCING MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL MO TOWARD CENTRAL IL/NWRN IND THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. AT 1245Z...BROAD MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM KANSAS CITY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA IN NWRN QUADRANT OF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE PRESENTLY OVER NRN AR. PRECIPITATION ZONE IS MARKED BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN 750-600MB LAYER NEAR NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION AREA. STRONGEST UVV CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MO...WHERE COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE/UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP-LAYER UVV NORTH OF LOW CENTER. STRONGEST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE PROPAGATES NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL BY 18Z AND SHOULD ENHANCE ONGOING PRECIP RATES. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER...DEEP LIFT SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING NLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AS LOW DEEPENS TO 990MB BY 21Z OVER SRN IND...SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH INCREASING CAA IN THE LOWEST LAYERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL/NWRN IND. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH AS STRONG FORCING MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON ROAD SURFACES... HOWEVER...HIGH WATER CONTENT OF SNOW MAY POSE A HAZARD TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HVY SNOW IS REALIZED AS STRONGEST FORCING MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL BY 18Z...AND INTO NWRN IND BY 20Z. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST LEFT OF 700MB LOW TRACK AS PORTRAYED BY 06Z ETA THROUGH CENTRAL IL INTO NWRN IND THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... 40409133 40968991 41418849 41728722 41758643 41698606 41238639 40818722 39898929 39598995 39289084 39129125 38999167 39149217 39409247 39739261 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 13:10:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 08:10:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241312.iAODCGE22193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241311 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-241415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2459 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AL AND FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 896...897... VALID 241311Z - 241415Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BY 14Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN GA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT AND EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AL (ST. CLAIR COUNTY) SWWD TO EXTREME SERN LA (PLAQUEMINES PARISH) AT . PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS /0-1 KM SRH 250-400 M2/S2 PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND AREA VADS/ WITH BOTH DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THAT REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATED THE SQUALL LINE AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF WW/S 896 AND 897 BY 14-15Z. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INTO THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... 30328860 31288779 32248658 33288618 34028599 34188505 33988412 32588400 30748404 30018400 29568509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 14:02:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 09:02:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241404.iAOE4EE14842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241403 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-241500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2460 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AL/SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241403Z - 241500Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EXTREME SERN AL INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 35-40 KT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF WW 897 BY 15-16Z. NEW DISCRETE STORMS...A FEW WITH ROTATION...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO /TO THE SOUTH OF SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NEWD AT 25-30 KT AND WILL MOVE INTO SERN PORTION OF WW 897 BY 16Z. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT SQUALL LINE...SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WHILE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31858365 30108394 29558500 29698557 30238763 31098719 31888603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 15:22:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 10:22:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241523.iAOFNxE23928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241523 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241523 GAZ000-ALZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-241700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2461 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN GA...SC...EXTREME SRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 899... VALID 241523Z - 241700Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FARTHER E...FOR PORTIONS ERN GA AND SC. SEVERE SQUALL LINE...CONTAINING EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND A FEW POSSIBLY TORNADIC MESOCYCLONES...IS ON TRACK TO LEAVE NRN PORTION WW 899 BETWEEN 16Z-17Z AND SERN PORTION AROUND 18Z. ESPECIALLY INTENSE BOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS HENRY/BUTTS/NEWTON/JASPER/MORGAN/PUTNAM/WALTON COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPES 300-800 J/KG. KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADIC BOWS WILL REMAIN STRONG...I.E. WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 55-70 KT MOST AREAS. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED UNTIL LATER TODAY. THEREFORE WW 899 PROBABLY WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION...ONCE ALL POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION EXITS ITS COUNTIES. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX... 31818366 31858553 34278537 34228345 34258348 34918273 35288162 35228085 34958037 34298056 33238106 31798149 31868361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 16:15:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 11:15:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241616.iAOGGmE22846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241616 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-241845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2462 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241616Z - 241845Z TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN ARC FROM WRN TN NNEWD OVER EXTREME WRN NY...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS EXTREME SRN IL. SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AMY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN BAND OF TCU INDICATED ON VIS IMAGERY OVER NRN MS...EXTENDING FROM YALOBUSHA TO MARSHALL COUNTIES AS OF 16Z...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAKER ON THIS ARA THAN OVER KY/TN/IL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW -- 993 MB -- INVOF CGI...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN-MOST IL AND SRN INDIANA THROUGH AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED JUST N OF OH RIVER OVER IL/INDIANA ATTM...SHOULD LIFT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-3 KM SRH 300-500 J/KG ALONG WARM FRONT...250-400 J/KG OVER TN/KY WARM SECTORS...AND DECREASING SWD INTO MS WHERE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE WLY COMPONENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM VALUES 70-80 KT BEING COMMON. GIVEN STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH SERN MO UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT BUOYANCY TO INCREASE NOW THAT DIABATIC HEATING IS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST LOW 60S SFC DEW POINTS. MLCAPE -- NOW GENERALLY UNDER 250 J/KG -- SHOULD INCREASE TO 500-800 J/KG BY AROUND 19Z...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AMIDST SUCH STRONG SHEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34148967 35288960 37058926 37668882 38048816 38168761 37918724 37348724 36348758 34998815 34758832 34418866 34278905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 17:23:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 12:23:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241724.iAOHOsE29209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241724 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2463 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN AL...SWRN AND S-CENTRAL GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 900... VALID 241724Z - 241930Z WW 900 SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND SRN GA WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF TSTMS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...AND SWRN GA. TORNADO REPORTED ABOUT 8 SE DOWNTOWN DOTHAN AL AT ABOUT 17Z. ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OUT OF SERN AL BY APPROXIMATELY 1745Z AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS EARLY/CALHOUN/BAKER COUNTIES GA THROUGH 19Z. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS -- EVIDENT OVER GULF AND AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND -- SHOULD MOVE INLAND ACROSS AQQ-TLH CORRIDOR AS SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LARGE ACROSS REGION...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 300 J/KG BASED ON TLH VWP. VERTICAL SHEAR 55-65 KT INDICATED THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500 J/KG OVER SWRN GA TO AROUND 1200 J/KG OFFSHORE AQQ. BUOYANCY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ATTM ACROSS NRN FL...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 29448426 29428727 31798584 31778280 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 18:30:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 13:30:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241832.iAOIWHE00790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241831 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2464 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE IL INTO NW IN AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 241831Z - 250000Z SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF MDT TO HEAVY WET SNOW TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS WCNTRL/NE IL REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING NEWD ACROSS NW IN AND SRN LOWER MI IN 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.0-1.5 IN/HR OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE HAMPERED BY MILD GROUND TEMPS/LOW SNOW-LIQUID EQUIVALENTS. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL INTENSE BANDS OF MDT-HVY SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIP ARE EVIDENT IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA /IN ACCORDANCE WITH SFC OBS/ ACROSS WCNTRL INTO NCNTRL IL AT 18Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE EXPECTED TO EFFECTIVELY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER TO ALL SNOW...OVERCOMING SHALLOW WARM LAYER WHERE A MIX AND/OR ALL RAIN PERSISTS AT MIDDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR DATA DEPICTED COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ASSOCIATED ENHANCED UVVS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NE IL/SRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW-NE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN 800-600 MB LAYER WILL ULTIMATELY FOCUS HEAVIEST SNOWBALL IN SIMILAR ORIENTATION FROM WCNTRL/NE IL INTO NW IN AND SRN LOWER MI...NAMELY FOCUSED ALONG SPI-PIA-IKK-SBN-LAN CORRIDOR. FURTHERMORE...PROXIMITY OF UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- AS EVIDENT IN 6.8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN 12Z ILX RAOB AND CG LIGHTNING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM NE MO INTO WCNTRL IL AMIDST MID/HEAVY SNOW -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOW RATES. ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...E/NE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F SRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE 32F FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SWRN/SRN SUBURBS AND NW IN. ..GUYER.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 41748919 41978857 41688739 41998661 42968599 43708430 43508321 42728283 41998420 40668653 39748832 39168978 39399041 39629079 40369115 40779086 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 18:54:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 13:54:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241856.iAOIuME15813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241855 TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-OHZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2465 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN...WRN KY...SWRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 902... VALID 241855Z - 242030Z NEW WW LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS SRN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY...POSSIBLY SWRN OH. MEANWHILE...TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN ARC EXTENDING FROM LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEY OF IL/INDIANA TO NEAR HOP THEN SSWWD TO JUST S AND E OF MKL. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INVOF TRACK OF DEEP SFC LOW -- NOW ANALYZED NNW EVV AND FCST TO TRACK NEWD JUST N OF OH RIVER...ALONG NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES NOW IN 500-800 J/KG RANGE OVER WRN PORTIONS TN/KY. INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH 250-500 J/KG...AND 60-90 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...MRX...JKL...ILN... 35068613 35068828 38628889 38628670 38838692 39418582 39508460 39378385 39098363 38438361 37188407 36348480 36068611 36058628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 19:12:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 14:12:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411241914.iAOJERE25752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241913 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241913 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 901... VALID 241913Z - 242115Z WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG AND E OF PERSISTENT SQUALL LINE WHICH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN GA AND WRN/CENTRAL SC. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HORUS AS THIS ACTIVITY APCHS ERN PORTION WW 901. LINE CONTAINS EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND HAS HISTORY OF DAMAGING GUSTS OVER CENTRAL/NRN GA AND WRN SC. WAA AND GRADUAL DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND FAVORABLY SHEARED 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS MARGINAL BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE...INDICATES CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD FROM WW ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH SOME BRIEF TORNADOES MAY STILL OCCUR IN BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... 34218028 35098016 35507846 35067751 34537741 33887792 33147918 32757971 32388037 32598043 31868054 31788354 35058337 35068019 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 20:55:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 15:55:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242057.iAOKvKE12111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242056 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN...WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN INDIANA...SWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 902...903... VALID 242056Z - 242300Z DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER SRN INDIANA JUST SSE OF IND...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING INTO WRN OH. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS MORE OF SWRN OH FOLLOWED BY WEAKLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC LOW PATH OVER INDIANA/SWRN OH. THOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SOME UPDRAFTS HAVE REMAINED UPRIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNINGS...AND KINEMATIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE INVOF WARM FRONT. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 18Z ILN RAOB SUGGEST JUST 1-2 DEG C COOLING NEAR SFC OVER REMAINDER WW AREAS REMOVES SBCAPE...THEREFORE...PRIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. FARTHER S...AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE MUCH FURTHER IN LOW LEVELS...SO WW ISSUANCE THERE MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. VEERED FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH TCU PERSIST IN SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ARC. OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL/SUSTAINED SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER TN APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING AS DIABATIC HEATING PASSES PEAK...AND AS ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY CYCLONE KEEPS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SWLY. STILL...WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL PROBABILITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT DROP SUBSTANTIALLY...IN DEFERENCE TO STRENGTH OF AMBIENT SHEAR AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 37508406 36638656 39188654 40098406 35078618 35048827 38618891 38668663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 21:30:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 16:30:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242131.iAOLVlE28448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242130 GAZ000-FLZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN GA...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NWRN FL PENINSULA...W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904... VALID 242130Z - 242330Z TWO CONVECTIVE LINES OF CONCERN: 1. EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL GA SWD ACROSS ERN APALACHEE BAY THEN SWWD ACROSS GULF...AND 2. RELATIVELY NEW BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR CTY SSWWD OFFSHORE W-CENTRAL FL COAST...AS OF 2115Z. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED ALONG W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST. WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FIRST LINE AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH REMAINDER EXTREME ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL...MERGING WITH SECOND LINE NEAR CTY. VWP AND RUC SOUNDING DATA INDICATE KINEMATIC PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NWRN FL WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURE. AIRMASS WILL LOSE BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN FL...BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEAT LOSS AND MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER NOTED IN 18Z JAX RAOB. THEREFORE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY NEARS ERN EDGE OF WW...AND ANOTHER WW FARTHER E MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION BREAKS INTO DISCRETE STORMS -- INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS -- OVER GULF. EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 23Z-00Z N OF PIE...AND AFTER 00Z FARTHER S. FOREGOING AIR MASS OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...HOWEVER THETAE WILL DIMINISH WITH INLAND EXTENT AND WITH TIME. PRIND SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER COASTAL COUNTIES BUT NOT VERY FAR INLAND. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 31778368 31758162 29028280 28998477 29528254 29278235 28868223 28418224 27788260 27608281 27728303 28158311 28988283 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 21:49:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 16:49:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242151.iAOLpGE04069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242150 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-242345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2469 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 905... VALID 242150Z - 242345Z SQUALL LINE WITH LITTLE OR NO REMAINING CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS WW AREA. WW CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND THIS LINE...WITH POSTCONVECTIVE AIR MASS BECOMING TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MOST AREAS BECAUSE OF SMALL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVECTIVE SCALE ASCENT ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...PERHAPS E OF WW INTO ERN NC WHERE WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING GUSTS...SEVERAL REPORTS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS WITH THIS LINE. ..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... 36548057 36587812 32557791 32558026 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 23:02:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 18:02:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242303.iAON3jE30589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242302 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-242330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NCNTRL/NWRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 903... VALID 242302Z - 242330Z TORNADO WATCH 903 EXPIRES AT 00Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL/ SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. 22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 989MB SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IND WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD ALONG THE OH RVR THEN SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN. A COUPLE BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGEST VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IND. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY...BUT REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE MIAMI VLY /KDAY/ TO KCMH. THE WILMINGTON OH VWP SHOWS 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 225 M2/S2. SO...KINEMATICALLY...THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM FROM SERN IND INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL OH...OR ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THERMODYNAMICALLY...GIVEN LOSS OF SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG...WITH ONLY SMALL STABLE LAYER. THUS...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THUS...ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY. ..RACY.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND... 36688653 39208648 40168282 37718283 36648651 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 23:35:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 18:35:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411242336.iAONauE08671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242336 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242336 GAZ000-FLZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904... VALID 242336Z - 250000Z TORNADO WATCH 904 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH IN TIME OR SPACE. A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SERN GA AND NRN FL. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AND MAINLY OFFSHORE OF LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FEEDING OFF UNSTABLE MARINE PARCELS...BUT A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE SINCE 23Z. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING AND THE FACT THAT A RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER EXISTS JUST ABOVE H7...UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME LASTING A SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH OF TIME. ALSO...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PASSING WELL N OF THE REGION...UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. THUS...DESPITE A SHORT TERM LOW PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE VCNTY CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE WANING RAPIDLY. ..RACY.. 11/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29078335 31788162 29038197 28668264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 25 00:57:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 19:57:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411250059.iAP0x7E05758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250058 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2472 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH AND NRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 906... VALID 250058Z - 250130Z LOW PROBABILITIES OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST/ISOLD TORNADO EXIST ACROSS SCNTRL OH THROUGH 02-03Z. EARLIER TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THAT TRACKED FROM SERN IND TO THE OH BORDER WERE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT THAT SURGED SWD. THESE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO PULSE AS THEY APPROACH THE SCIOTO RIVER VLY OF SCNTRL OH. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE AND THE 00Z WILMINGTON SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWED A SMALL NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT...BUT CONTINUED COOLING WILL LIKELY BECOME HOSTILE FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SURFACE OR TORNADOES. THROUGH 02-03Z...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO EXIST IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LANCASTER-ATHENS- PORTSMOUTH-LANCASTER LINE. ..RACY.. 11/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 38158436 40238210 38868195 38298372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 25 01:02:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 20:02:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411250103.iAP13xE07370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250103 MIZ000-INZ000-250400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IN INTO SRN/CNTRL LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 250103Z - 250400Z OCCASIONALLY MDT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NRN IN/SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...HOWEVER DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE AFTER 03Z. MDT/HEAVY WET SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS NW IN/SRN LOWER MI INTO EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY IN BEH-GRR-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR. THIS SW-NE FOCUSED SNOWFALL IS LARGELY ORIENTED WITH MID LEVEL /800MB-600MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN NW PERIPHERY OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONE... AMIDST RELATIVELY LOW STATIC STABILITY /IE. 00Z DTX RAOB/. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCE IN IR SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC TRENDS...DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. 18Z/21Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL DECREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEWD TRANSITION OF COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE/DIMINISHING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT. THUS...WHILE OCCASIONALLY MDT SNOW WILL PERSIST IN SHORT TERM...DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED REMAINDER OF EVENING...NAMELY AFTER 03Z. ..GUYER.. 11/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 43198608 43998478 44448347 43908331 43768296 43578257 42448365 41218571 40998617 41178656 41498678 41768649 42498631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 25 02:32:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 21:32:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411250234.iAP2Y6E03220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250233 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0833 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 906... VALID 250233Z - 250300Z TORNADO WATCH 906 WILL EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REISSUED. LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OH AND NRN KY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS BRIEFLY PULSE AND THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK ATTEMPTS AT SMALL SCALE BOWING SIGNATURES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON INSTABILITY AND TSTMS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AS SUCH...THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC. ..RACY.. 11/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN... 38498319 39738232 39758172 39048106 38788202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 06:39:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 01:39:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411280642.iAS6g1E29075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280640 COZ000-UTZ000-281245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2487 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...WRN CO CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 280640Z - 281245Z HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HOURLY RATES NEAR 2 INCHES / HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL UT WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL GRADIENT / PACKING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FRONT AND SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT. ..JEWELL.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...SLC... 37831030 39800872 40240788 40160727 39930646 39290628 38050711 37570786 37250868 37591008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 16:44:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 11:44:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411281646.iASGkEE25848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281644 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281644 NEZ000-COZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281644Z - 282245Z A BAND OF HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR MDT-HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS AND NERN CO TOWARDS 00Z...WITH THE HVY SNOW BAND LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED NARROW BAND /10-20 MILES WIDE/ OF MDT-HVY SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM SDY TO 10 N OF LBF TO HSI. A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WILL SUPPORT HIGH SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS AROUND 15:1. THIS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF A VERY FOCUSED BAND OF HVY SNOW...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT OF VISIBILITIES/SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN A FEW MILE DISTANCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND. THIS BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW MATCHES UP WELL WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WAA SUPPORTED BY 50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 3 KM LAYER EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER DATA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX CENTERED OVER NEB AND MID LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ZONE IN THE 600-650 MB LAYER WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT RAPID DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. GIVEN SLOW SEWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND EWD MOVEMENT OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DRY SLOT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE MID LEVEL FORCING/HVY SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS AREAS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WRN NEB SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN HVY SNOW IN THE 17-20Z TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS... 41270360 42180357 41969974 41389664 40219615 40319745 40830260 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 16:48:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 11:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411281650.iASGocE27445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281649 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-282245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2489 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 281649Z - 282245Z LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO MDT-HVY SNOW IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NERN CO/NWRN KS AND FAR SWRN NEB. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED FOR P-TYPE TO BE -FZDZ ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NWRN KS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT-HVY SNOW ACROSS SWRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN KS BEGINNING BETWEEN 21-00Z. STRONG UPPER JET LOCATED OVER NEB WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED FAVORING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN CO/NWRN KS. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CO REDEVELOPS SEWD INTO SWRN KS...THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ECENTRAL CO/SWRN KS. MDT BACKING OF MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEPENING OF FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE 800-700 MB LAYER. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER WHERE THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...BUT PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU... 39710424 40560353 40640162 40060072 39140130 38800218 38820372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 23:27:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 18:27:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411282329.iASNToE29356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282329 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282328 MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-290530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2490 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND SWRN/SCENTRAL IA...FAR NCENTRAL/NWRN MO CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 282328Z - 290530Z BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OUT OF SCENTRAL/SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND POSSIBLY SCENTRAL IA THROUGH 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING IN STRENGTH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL NEB WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW DUE TO PRESENCE OF EWD MOVING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. A WELL ESTABLISHED FOCUSED HVY SNOW BAND DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS ALONG 600-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN TO 0.5 IN/HR BETWEEN 03-06Z AS THE SNOWFALL BAND MOVES INTO SCENTRAL IA AND POSSIBLY NWRN AND NCENTRAL MO AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. AREAS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WILL SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN HEAVY SNOWFALL BETWEEN 00-03Z AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES EAST AND REDEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO KS. ..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40099895 41399892 41719615 41009244 39819207 39989334 40129733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 29 00:27:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 19:27:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411290030.iAT0U8E19233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290029 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2491 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...SERN CO...WRN KS...AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 290029Z - 290630Z MDT-HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING/DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF SERN CO WITH AROUND 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER SWRN KS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NEB/IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED UPPER ASCENT THROUGH THE EVENING. A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SERN CO/SWRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 06Z. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/KS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF HVY SNOW SO FAR ACROSS WRN KS. HOWEVER...MDT-STRONG SLOPED ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE -10 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SWRN KS AND LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM WILL FAVOR THE PTYPE AS FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. A LEAD VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL CO/NWRN NM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SERN CO AROUND 06Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESPOND AND BECOME MORE NELY ACROSS SERN CO AND FAVOR INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND SNOWFALL RATES INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND NRN RATON RIDGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD...MID LEVEL FORCING WILL AID IN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW FARTHER EAST INTO SWRN KS. INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN CO INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW AROUND 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 11/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37989954 36910067 36210137 35750236 35840351 36180437 36620495 37650563 38450565 38990534 38520394 37900330 38410242 39130203 39750032 39599939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 01:51:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 20:51:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411300153.iAU1rNE12138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300152 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-300445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 300152Z - 300445Z DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO HVY SNOW BAND ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR CDS-OKC-PNC BETWEEN 06-09Z. BEFORE MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS...THE PROBABILITY FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL LIFT NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IN SUBFREEZING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL OK BEFORE ONSET OF SNOWFALL. LATEST IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SWRN/WRN TX IS A RESULT OF INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECHO DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON LOCAL RADAR FROM LBB FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT MID LEVELS WERE MOISTENING AND THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING THROUGH THE -14 TO -16 DEG C LAYER /AROUND 600 MB/ WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT-HVY SNOW BY LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS LAYER FOCUSES ALONG AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN TX AS EVIDENT BY RECENT BACKING FLOW IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER FROM THE VWP AT FREDERICK OK. BEFORE MID LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS...EXPECT INCREASE IN LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF SFC FREEZING LINE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM OKC TO LAW BY 06Z GIVEN CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION. ..CROSBIE.. 11/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 33430160 34640034 36329867 37159736 36069650 34739698 33989809 33419872 32719952 32860100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 23:49:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 18:49:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200411302351.iAUNpoE23893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302350 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-010545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI/NRN IL/NRN IN/LOWER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 302350Z - 010545Z RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL/NRN IN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA THROUGH MID EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY INCREASE TO 1 IN/HOUR IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW NEAR EVANSVILLE WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA/ERN KS/SW OK PER LATEST WV IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES NEWD NEAR TOLEDO BY 01/06Z. SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE FROM MLI/JVL. HOWEVER...SNOW IS BEING REPORTED FROM UIN TO VYS/ARR WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIP IS OCCURRING ATTM. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS NCNTRL IL SPREADING INTO THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO BY 03Z. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF N/NERN IL THIS EVENING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 06Z...AS THE MAIN SNOW BANDS SPREAD INTO NRN IN AND EVENTUALLY THE SRN LOWER PENINSULA. ..TAYLOR.. 11/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 43028246 40618523 39348844 39909004 41219028 42658972 44358387 44068251 43418227 WWWW