[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312317 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-010115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD / CENTRAL AND ERN VA / DC...

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357...

VALID 312317Z - 010115Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF WW.

SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS WW. 
HOWEVER...AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE...WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS
ACROSS CENTRAL VA AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD. 

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70 KT MID-LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED UVV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WW AREA.  SOME INCREASE
IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NERN KY / SWRN VA / WV...AS WELL
AS WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA -- ALL
WITHIN MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  ASSUMING THIS CONVECTIVE INCREASE
IS TIED TO INDIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET EXIT
REGION...WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IN MOIST / UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW.

..GOSS.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

39417753 37757467 36637541 37287640 37637742 37827879 

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