[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311750 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-311845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311750Z - 311845Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN INDIANA.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN WI...JUST NE OF
GRB...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NWRN-SERN LOWER MI. 
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH A
FAIRLY NARROW AXIS OF 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETREATING NWD WITH
THE BOUNDARY.  POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -18C AT
500 MB/ AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NERN
IND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDING IN ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.

..PETERS.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41278504 41348626 43758643 44968617 45108555 45038461
44918398 44158320 42918273 41988347 

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