[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301753 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-302000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MO...NW AR...NE OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 330...

VALID 301753Z - 302000Z

CONTINUE WW 330...AND NEW WW EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG
BENEATH LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE.  THIS FEATURE IS
BECOMING FOCUS FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON LEADING EDGE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING...NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KANSAS/
MISSOURI BORDER.  SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...AND
PROGRESS EAST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREAS BY 21Z...
WHILE EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF
SPRINGFIELD.

TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH SUPERCELL NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE
WAVE ACROSS THE KIRKSVILLE AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS SQUALL LINE EVOLVES. 

PRIMARY THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS BEST IN
ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA.  BACKED FLOW ALONG/NORTH
OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

36919421 38759345 39619284 40339262 40559202 40649180
40599113 40849072 40408975 39578895 39048955 38799050
39039109 38309149 36549271 35249470 34879547 35129586 

WWWW