[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300004 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-300200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324...

VALID 300004Z - 300200Z

CONTINUE WW 324.

THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT...CONTINUES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ORIENTED WNW-ESE NEAR THE
SD/ND BORDER. DEEP LAYER OF SLY FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE PER
FARGO VAD SUGGESTS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...AND FEED OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE /MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG/.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER WW 324 IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN ND
AND W-CENTRAL MN WHERE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST. CELLS
WILL TRACK GENERALLY 200/15-20 KT...WITH STRONGER CORES LIKELY
CONTAINING HAIL. VERY STRONG HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS AND THREAT FOR LARGEST
HAIL. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS
CELL INTERACTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FAR SERN ND COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ND/SD LINE...AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE BORDER...BUT
PRIMARILY IN WW 321 ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN.  A SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX
CENTERED 20N DVL CONTINUES MOVING NWD...HOWEVER...CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY WEAK...LIKELY DUE TO
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN
HALF OF MN.

..BANACOS.. 05/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45919861 48960077 48979704 45919503 

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