[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270057 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO INTO WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270057Z - 270200Z

PARTS OF WW 294 AND 296 WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

00 UTC KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED THAT EARLY SUSPICIONS OF THE CAP
BUILDING NEWD WERE CORRECT...KEEPING SWRN/SCNTRL MO CONVECTION FREE
THROUGH THE EVENING.  FARTHER NE...SRN EDGE OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN IL AND NERN MO HAVE ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER VCNTY WARM
FRONT FROM NE OF KVIH TO KBLV. THESE TSTMS HAVE EXHIBITED DEVIANT
MOTION AND MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WHERE 0-1KM SRH WAS OVER 350
M2/S2. 

THE SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD...BUT
MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE EARLIER MCS DEVELOPED. THUS...TORNADO RISKS
MAY DIMINISH WITH TIME IF THE AIR MASS HAS NOT HAD TIME TO RECOVER. 


AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE AND TSTMS ARE APT
TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE MID MO/LOWER OH VLY. 
AVAILABILITY OF UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL KEEP A LARGE HAIL
THREAT ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN
OK MAY EXPAND WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS AND MOVE NEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN
KS AND SWRN MO AS WELL.

VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 294/296 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REISSUED AND
EXACT PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION WILL BE DISCUSSED IN AN UPCOMING
CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICES.

..RACY.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

37889381 38479351 38348789 37958806 37668631 36468596
36589537 37629539 

WWWW