[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261845 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261845Z - 262045Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WW MAY
BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ERN MT AND NRN WY. DIFFERENTIAL PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESEWD REACHING SERN
ND/NERN SD AROUND 27/00Z. ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM
N-CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NWRN SD WILL ADVANCE EWD WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDING FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE TO
CLOUD STRUCTURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SW OF BIS AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS
YIELDING MAXIMUM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. MODIFICATION OF 12Z
ABR SOUNDING FOR 18Z SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS A MUCAPE OF 1200
J/KG. WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD READILY ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE SD/ND BORDER AS TROUGH
ADVANCES EWD. ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS GIVEN SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45
KT. SUPERCELL MOTIONS LIKELY 270/25-30 KT. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST WITH ROTATING STORMS. FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN THIS EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

45829887 47899866 47739599 44459610 43789598 43739781
44009891 

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