[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241824 
MNZ000-IAZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MN INTO N-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241824Z - 242000Z

POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 1805Z...LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER MOVING 230/35KTS
EXTENDED FROM SIOUX COUNTY SEWD TO AUDUBON COUNTY IN NWRN/W-CNTRL
IA. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OVER SERN SD
INTO NERN NEB. SLY LLJ FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA IS
TRANSPORTING VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM WITH RUC
SOUNDING SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER. LATEST
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDING IN GRADUAL
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED PARCELS FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO
S-CNTRL MN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF
IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

43489486 44279494 44639387 44139209 43019178 42139248
42129346 42159432 42209478 

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