[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231927 
PAZ000-NYZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231927Z - 232130Z

WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY 
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.  ACTIVITY IS JUST S OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LWR MI EWD ACROSS WRN NY STATE JUST S OF
LAKE ONTARIO.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS NERN OH WHICH IS INDICATING MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

41957973 42247967 42657911 43077849 43087764 42877707
42397712 42037722 41777840 

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