[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222002 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-222100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222002Z - 222100Z

...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM SRN NEB
INTO SRN IA.  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z...

RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOWER MO VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE AN AXIS OF 3000-4000 J/KG SBCAPE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWWD ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AHEAD OF INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS.  A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD THIS
EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A RAPID INCREASE IN LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON E-W
BOUNDARY ALONG THE KS/NEB...IA/MO BORDERS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. 
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT.  A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL.  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

40989897 41799567 41689178 40489165 40159552 39969896