[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 221159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221158 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/PORTIONS NRN MO INTO WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 221158Z - 221300Z

ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-MORNING
ACROSS SERN IA/PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO WRN IL. WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY.

11Z MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS/S...EXTENDING FROM NRN IL WSWWD ACROSS FAR SRN IA
TO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER.  AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS DATA INDICATED
THE SWLY 50 KT LLJ EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NRN MO...WITH
RESULTANT STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN IA...WHERE RADARS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP.  GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND APPEARANCE OF THESE STORMS/NEW
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY PER VIS IMAGERY...ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED.  WAA AND INFLUX OF
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN MO/SERN IA INTO WRN IL THIS
MORNING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE THE LLJ WEAKENS BY 15Z.

..PETERS.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

39939433 41159352 41208983 40998914 40038931 39689031
39729349 

WWWW