[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212235 
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-220030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL AND ERN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212235Z - 220030Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NW OF HLC...EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE.  RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES LITTLE CIN WITHIN THIS ZONE AND ALONG DRYLINE...AND
FORECASTS PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.  

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND STRONG
WIND PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORCING PROVE
ENOUGH TO ESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS MUCH
HIGHER.

..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

39009910 39099992 39380044 39900043 41079974 42359855
42579675 41959617 39559786 

WWWW