[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210640 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-210745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-ERN OH/NWRN-WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210640Z - 210745Z

WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN OH INTO NWRN-WRN
PA.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH EXTENDS FROM NRN IND/SERN LOWER MI INTO NRN
OH PER IR IMAGERY/REGIONAL RADARS.  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...IS MOVING TO
THE SE AT 25-30 KT.  ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS NRN OH...GIVEN
DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ONE OR TWO SMALL COLD POOLS OVER
LE.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NERN OH INTO WRN PA...AS NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS MOVING INLAND OFF THE LAKE.  VAD WINDS SHOW
35-40 KT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OH...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
THE INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND RESULT
IN A SLOWER SE MOVEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM.  INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAPE BEARING SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
SOMEWHAT SLOW ESEWD MOVEMENT OF MCS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW
ATTM.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

41758049 41147961 40507986 40298081 40228207 40588299
41348323 41488255 

WWWW