[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191626 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...N CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 191626Z - 191830Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NEAR WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  MOST PROMINENT ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE IN...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK/WEAKENING MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER.

MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY/WESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING WEST OF THIS AXIS...
ON NOSE OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE EVANSVILLE IND/
LOUISVILLE KY AREAS THROUGH THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME.

MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...WITH
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DESPITE LACK OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW MOVING CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS.

..KERR.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

38158836 38588763 38528633 38188559 37908540 37208656
37068724 37478830 

WWWW