[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180059 
KSZ000-OKZ000-180300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 180059Z - 180300Z

THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLD TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...REMAINS ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 212.

ONGOING RUSSELL/LINCOLN/ELLSWORTH COUNTY SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE TORNADIC THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IN MIDST OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE/HELICITY INVOF FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE SWWD INVOF AND/OR SW OF DDC TOWARD COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
TRIPLE POINT/SFC LOW PER NEGLIGIBLE ML PARCEL CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z
DDC SOUNDING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
-- ESPECIALLY ENHANCED INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY --
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES WITH
MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY.

INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40+ KTS/ THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF WW 212 THROUGH 03Z...CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. PROGRESSIVELY NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY -- NAMELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 212 -- MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

36910190 38930191 39509678 37509681 

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