[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130104 
OKZ000-TXZ000-130230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194...

VALID 130104Z - 130230Z

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SEGMENTED DRYLINE
STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM BECKHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OK TO KING
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TX...AND THEN FROM AROUND STONEWALL COUNTY
TOWARD FISHER COUNTY IN NWRN TX.

AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 50 MB MLCAPE
VALUES ABOUT 4000 J/KG PER RUC ANALYSIS AND 00 UTC OUN RAOB. ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF WW ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELL
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER OK...AS SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35
KTS BY 03 UTC. 

LACKING A LARGER SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
BEYOND 03 UTC OVER OK PORTION OF THE WW.

..BRIGHT.. 05/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32240081 33180059 34289985 34849971 36159938 36229781
36059768 32259889 

WWWW