[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130008 
KSZ000-COZ000-130115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SW KS...NW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193...

VALID 130008Z - 130115Z

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS INTO NWRN OK.

STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS AT THE INTERSECTION OF
SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE/QUASI-STATIONARY KS BOUNDARY FROM BARBER COUNTY
TO PRATT/COMANCHE COUNTIES...AND NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT TO ERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL KS AROUND MARION COUNTY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
35-55 KT AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100 MB MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW KS.

ALTHOUGH A STORM EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF WW 193 OVER
MARION COUNTY...WEAK VIL VALUES SUGGEST STORM IN THIS AREA ARE
STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THIS REGION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT
ADJACENT TO WW 193...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY.  THUS... PORTIONS
OF ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW IF ACTIVITY CAN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

..PETERS.. 05/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37750041 37460127 37780327 38180380 39550394 39930293
39660046 39090024 

WWWW