[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122023 
KSZ000-OKZ000-122230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...KS NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122023Z - 122230Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.  TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 
HOUR.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS KS
FROM NORTH OF TOP TO JUST SOUTH OF DDC WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN DDC...P28 /MEDICINE LODGE/ AND GAG.  DRY LINE IS NOT WELL
DEFINED OVER WRN OK ATTM...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN OK AND
NWRN TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  AIR MASS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES FROM
2000-4000 J/KG...THOUGH 18Z SOUNDING FROM DDC MAINTAINS A STRONG CAP
OVER SWRN KS.  HOWEVER...FURTHER HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN THIS CAP AND LATEST ANALYSES SUGGEST CAP IS ALMOST ERODED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN KS.

18Z RUC AND ETA RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS RAPID QPF DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z.  STORMS MAY
INITIATE SOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NERN KS...WITH DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TO CONTINUE SWWD ALONG THE FRONT OR IN A SEPARATE REGION NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS STRONGEST INTO SWRN KS/FAR NWRN OK SUGGESTING TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THIS REGION.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

..EVANS.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

39639686 39709564 38789506 37249727 36689950 37000089
37890090 38469874 

WWWW