[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120239 
SDZ000-NEZ000-120445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL NEB INTO SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189...

VALID 120239Z - 120445Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE GUST FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN/EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  IN WAKE OF LEADING EDGE OF
SURFACE COLD POOL...TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH BENEATH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS.

COOLING HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE LEE OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERCUT CONVECTIVE BAND...LIKELY
LIMITING SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  BAND WILL
BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF ALLIANCE INTO THE VALENTINE AREA...UNTIL MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES THOUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE
05-06Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

41800211 42830108 43159940 43619847 43009791 41869839
41369909 41020071 41080182 

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