[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081953 
TXZ000-NMZ000-082230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...ERN/SERN NM...WRN/SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081953Z - 082230Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20-23Z ALONG
AN AXIS FROM 20SE DHT TO 40W INK. STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
ISOLATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

AT 1930Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES... DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND WEAK
CONFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A SSWWD EXTENSION OF TOWERING CU
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN DHT AND AMA. THE UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON
WV IMAGERY ACROSS SRN TX IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS WRN
TX /0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT/ ...WHICH MAY AID IN A FEW LONGER-LIVED
STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY LIMIT EXTENT/COVERAGE OF STORMS
OVER THE REGION.

VERY STEEP SURFACE TO 500MB LAPSE RATES / 8-9 C/KM / AND MODEST WBZ
HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES.
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING 30-35F AROUND PEAK HEATING
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.

..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

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