[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081744 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN MT...AND THE WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081744Z - 082015Z

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN MT...WITH STORMS MOVING ENEWD TOWARD WRN ND.
LOCALIZED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
WITH THESE STORMS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

AT 1730Z...A CLUSTER OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INTENSIFYING ACROSS FERGUS COUNTY MT...MOVING 230/45 KT. WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MT...THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NERN MT. LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...OF 30-40F...WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18C AT
500MB/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN AN ELONGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN A NNW-SSE
ORIENTED BAND THROUGH 20Z.  

TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ND...SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE AND SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45820216 44620202 43970248 43900345 44240384 45190437
46370605 46870671 47250785 48330805 48730756 48940641
48980560 48980482 48970355 47650295 

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