[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071749 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-071915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WV...WRN MD...SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155...

VALID 071749Z - 071915Z

AN MCS OVER OH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO WW 155 AND A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OH NORTH OF A SFC
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SRN OH. THE MCS IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ASCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS ESEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL JET OVER IND AND OH
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND ABOUT 40 KT AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN A
SWIFT STORM MOVEMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS SFC HEATING STEEPENS THE
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE SFC-BASED. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT CONSIDERING THE SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE AND MODERATELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES.

..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

39888253 40278212 40497801 39757732 38837771 38668173
38558239 

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