From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 06:01:30 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 01:01:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405060600.i4660RL31264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060559 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA....SRN MN....EXTREME WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060559Z - 060800Z TSTMS MAY INCRS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA/SRN MN...AND SPREAD ESE TO WRN WI THROUGH 09Z. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LONE TSTM CELL RECENTLY INITIATED NEAR SURFACE WAVE/WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN IA IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 35KT LLJ. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY AND CAPPED...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM...AND LOCAL/MESOSCALE MOISTENING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850-700MB. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS NEARLY NONEXISTENT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG SRN EDGE OF UPPER JET...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. LATEST 03Z RUC RUN SEEMS TO SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE IA/MN BORDER THROUGH 09Z...WHILE EARLIER ETA MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE LIMITED STORM COVERAGE. IF MCS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...INCREASING COVERAGE AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 05/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42559277 43159627 44079643 44599550 44899226 43399082 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 14:38:46 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 09:38:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405061437.i46EbgI17354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061436 MIZ000-061630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061436Z - 061630Z SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LOWER MI. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SPEED MAX AROUND 700 MB. AS A RESULT...A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD...SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY STARTING ABOVE 700 MB AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED. 500 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15 C AND LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8.5 C/KM WHICH WILL RESULT IN A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY AIR MAY FAVOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 05/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44848600 45108548 45518519 45708476 45528393 45218339 44798330 44138354 43668389 43468407 43408458 43478597 43618658 44378647 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 18:24:11 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 13:24:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405061823.i46IN6I22212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061822 MIZ000-061945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150... VALID 061822Z - 061945Z IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WW 150 HAS DIMINISHED. NEW CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT WATCH. AS A RESULT...WW 150 WILL BE CANCELLED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...THE CAP SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WHEN IT APPEARS THIS WILL HAPPEN...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR LOWER MI. ..BROYLES.. 05/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42798618 44028621 43858326 42578320 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Fri May 7 01:40:15 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 20:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070139.i471d9432376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070137 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI/NERN IND INTO NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070137Z - 070300Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0130Z...GRAND RAPIDS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INVOF FRONT OVER CASS/ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES IN SWRN MI SWWD INTO ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN N-CNTRL IND. PROXIMITY 00Z DTX RAOB INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS... AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR BELOW MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z DTX AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41858619 42248507 41948279 41108246 40998383 40878529 41058600 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Fri May 7 03:05:59 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 22:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070306.i4736M412328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070305 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-070430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH EWD INTO FAR WRN NY AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070305Z - 070430Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR. OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WRN PORTIONS OF NY WWD INTO ERN/CNTRL LAKE ERIE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHILE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING /HEIGHT FALLS/ FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...ERN BRANCH OF WLY LLJ COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE LIKELY PROVIDING NECESSARY ASCENT TO SUSTAIN THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO NERN OH AND NWRN PA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY /CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXISTS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41748257 42348101 42847898 41727829 41157939 40688143 40638250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 04:54:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 23:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070454.i474sV402138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070453 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-070630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA EWD INTO NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070453Z - 070630Z DISCUSSION AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED FROM SWRN IA NEWD THROUGH DSM INTO E-CNTRL IA AND NWRN IL. STRENGTHENING LLJ OBSERVED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM CNTRL/ERN KS NWD/NEWD INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA IS LIKELY ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM STJ TO ENEWD ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO NRN IL N OF PIA AS OF 04Z. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG LLJ JET AXIS ARE YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM 750-700MB WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STRONG LATITUDINAL MID-LEVEL ISOTACH GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 20-25KTS OVER SWRN IA TO 50-55KT OVER NERN IA INTO NRN IL. THUS... IF ELEVATED STORMS CAN INDEED INITIATE...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE FROM CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LIKELY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41129462 42229405 42779201 42348934 41838840 41058878 40909058 40759214 40799407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 07:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 02:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070716.i477G2406360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070713 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-070815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH / NWRN PA / SWRN NY... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152... VALID 070713Z - 070815Z THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUES WITH A OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN AND CLOSE TO WW AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS LK ERIE ATTM GENERALLY N OF COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WARM ADVECTION APPARENTLY REMAINS SUFFICIENT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS -- TO ALLOW CONTINUED STORM REGENERATION. NONETHELESS...GIVEN GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNLESS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY -- OR DEVELOP / MOVE INTO WARM SECTOR WHERE WIND THREAT WOULD BE GREATER -- WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT A REPLACEMENT WATCH. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41698368 42537835 40917837 40308211 40968198 41418367  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 09:26:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 04:26:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070926.i479QL404343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070924 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-071100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NRN IL... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070924Z - 071100Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN IA AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO ADJACENT NWRN IL ATTM. STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT ATTM LONGEVITY OF THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION AND ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE. LATEST DVN /DAVENPORT IA/ WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG / SEVERE STORMS -- PARTICULARLY IN SMALL N-S LINE NOW MOVING ACROSS SCOTT COUNTY IA AND INTO ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IL. AXIS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTS N OF SURFACE FRONT NOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL IL / NRN MO...AND 25 TO 30 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT / UVV FOR STORM REGENERATION. WITH 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS STORM ORGANIZATION / ROTATION. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION...62 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM MUSCATINE COUNTY IA WITH SRN-MOST PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SEWD PROPAGATION TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS NEAR FRONT -- AND IF THIS SEWD DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE FURTHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41459246 42479068 42418762 40828751 40829046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 11:39:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 06:39:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071139.i47BdO403427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071138 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-071315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153... VALID 071138Z - 071315Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW 0153. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS AFFECTING AREAS IN AND CLOSE TO WW ATTM...WITH STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING GRUNDY AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES -- MOVING SEWD AT 40 TO 45 KT. STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- OCCURRING JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT...WHERE AXIS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE IS INDICATED. WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL AND ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1 TO 2 OF HOURS -- AT WHICH TIME LEADING STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM GIVEN ANTICIPATED CONTINUATION OF STORMS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE / STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41569012 41608761 41228513 40478458 39838504 39888763 40439005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 14:29:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 09:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071431.i47EV9F12503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071429 DEZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-071600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/SRN PA/WV/NRN VA/MD/DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071429Z - 071600Z A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN PA AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS SRN PA. STEEP 0-3 KM LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C EXIST DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD AT 45 TO 50 KT...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40468227 40688154 40777990 40667837 40337651 40157576 39727537 39327551 38587574 38307699 38527901 38918208 39438248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 16:45:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 11:45:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071645.i47GjdX28120@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071644 ILZ000-IAZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 071644Z - 071845Z THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL THROUGH 20Z. AT 1630Z...A BACKBUILDING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED AXIS FROM 20S RFD TO 15N CID. STORM UPDRAFTS ARE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING PROVIDED OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL WWD ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...AROUND 8 C/KM...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELEVATED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER...MORE LONG-LIVED CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO 2"/HR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD FOCUS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST DIMINISHING THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... 42269183 42389092 42208937 42098853 41988789 41578757 41028780 41288992 41499139 41809196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 16:49:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 11:49:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071649.i47GnnX31300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071649 OHZ000-WVZ000-INZ000-071815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154... VALID 071649Z - 071815Z AN MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF WW 154. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF WW 155 BY 20Z. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN OH AND SRN IND. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN IND WILL SUPPORT THE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 40 KT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39548484 40008451 40348367 40588284 40418224 39878173 39418171 38958190 38758227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:18:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:18:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071718.i47HIfX19222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071717 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN PA...NY...DE...ERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071717Z - 071845Z A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN PA INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW155. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA. AN MCS IS MOVING ESEWD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INTO A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED FLOW AT 700 MB ADVANCING ESEWD TOWARD SERN PA AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT 45 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL CREATE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39047621 40547618 40257410 38897491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:25:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:25:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071726.i47HQFX24616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071724 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-071900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN PA...NJ...DE...ERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071724Z - 071900Z A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN PA INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW155. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA. AN MCS IS MOVING ESEWD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INTO A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED FLOW AT 700 MB ADVANCING ESEWD TOWARD SERN PA AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT 45 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL CREATE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39047621 40547618 40257410 38897491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:49:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:49:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071750.i47Ho3X08673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071749 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-071915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WV...WRN MD...SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155... VALID 071749Z - 071915Z AN MCS OVER OH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO WW 155 AND A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OH NORTH OF A SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SRN OH. THE MCS IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ASCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS ESEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL JET OVER IND AND OH WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND ABOUT 40 KT AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN A SWIFT STORM MOVEMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS SFC HEATING STEEPENS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE SFC-BASED. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT CONSIDERING THE SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... 39888253 40278212 40497801 39757732 38837771 38668173 38558239 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 19:27:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 14:27:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071928.i47JS5q12735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071926 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...AND FAR SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071926Z - 072200Z ERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION. AT 19Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN MO WWD INTO FAR SERN NEB AND WSWWD INTO N-CENTRAL KS. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS KS/MO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR CAPPED. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILE FROM OMAHA INDICATES A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE OF SWLY FLOW AT 2 KM FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB THROUGH 00Z. IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WITH VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES IN PLACE / 8-9 C/KM / THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO WRN IA AT 15-20 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40409584 40349692 40099829 40569849 41689852 42479837 43169814 43499756 43379450 40879402 40639534 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 21:35:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 16:35:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405072135.i47LZhq29086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072133 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0433 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-E-CNTRL IA EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072133Z - 072300Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR NEAR DBQ TO THE N OF SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL AS OF 21Z. DSM VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING AUGMENTED BY ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS SERN CANADA. WHILE LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42909168 43049072 42968881 42288757 41668764 41478946 41959136  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 22:18:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 17:18:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405072218.i47MIfq24292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072217 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-080015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...MD...AND DE...INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157... VALID 072217Z - 080015Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NRN VA...SRN MD...AND SRN/WRN PORTION OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 02Z. AT 22Z...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WAS CROSSING FROM NERN WV INTO NWRN VA...WITH MOTION 290/45-50 KT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE CELLS WERE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ORIENTED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN VA. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM IAD INDICATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ORGANIZED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SHOULD OCCUR WITH SMALL...FAST MOVING BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED BUT LONG-LIVED CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS LIKELY ACROSS NRN VA INCLUDING THE SRN AND WRN WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 38347933 39077890 39687856 39397503 37957503 38187755 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 23:03:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 18:03:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405072303.i47N3nq16381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072302 VAZ000-MDZ000-080130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN VA AND LOWER ERN SHORE OF VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072302Z - 080130Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF WW 157 AREA ACROSS ERN VA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 2250Z...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS N-CENTRAL VA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON ITS SRN FLANK. STRONG REFLECTIVITY CORES AND SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO POTENTIAL ACROSS FAUQUIER AND CULPEPER COUNTIES IN VA SHOULD TRACK 310/35-40 KT...TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF THE WW 157 AREA /100MB MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG /. PORTIONS OF ERN VA MAY BE AFFECTED BY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 08/01Z...WITH CAROLINE AND ESSEX COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. EVOLUTION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED...BUT SMALL THREAT AREA OUTSIDE OF COUNTIES ALREADY INCLUDED WITHIN WW 157 MAY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38247819 38147711 38077633 37707624 37337630 37377682 37527789 37587837 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 00:36:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 19:36:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080036.i480aXq31831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080034 SDZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 080034Z - 080200Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO W-CNTRL SD MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO PRIOR TO DISSIPATING BY 02 OR 03Z. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CROOK COUNTY WY HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD AT AROUND 30KTS. 00Z UNR SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN SD WITH A SBCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE DRY AIR BELOW 600MB MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TSTM CLUSTER SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY 03Z AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR... 44820405 45330390 45730301 45200208 44610192 44200259 44010331 44200396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 01:21:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 20:21:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080121.i481Lrq21823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080120 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158... VALID 080120Z - 080245Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 158 THROUGH 04Z. AS OF 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED WEAKENING TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS SRN WI INTO FAR NRN IL MOVING EWD INTO LAKE MI. EWD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN NEB/WRN AND CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WEAKENING TREND. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MN SWWD INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN IA. SRN EXTENSION OF THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NEB/SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA AS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING IS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO THE LFC ON STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY WELL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43529207 43098760 41648761 42089210 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 02:55:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 21:55:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080255.i482trq02898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080253 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080253Z - 080430Z RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0240Z...OAX/UEX RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER BOONE COUNTY W OF OLU. STRENGTHENING LLJ JET OVER SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE PLATTE RIVER IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB INDICATE STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 800MB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULAR STRONG... PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SERN SD INTO SRN MN ALONG NEWD-EXPANDING LLJ AXIS. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...STRONGER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41619833 42999807 44079680 44859464 44829290 43869232 42969262 42149506 41349693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 05:26:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 00:26:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080527.i485RCq05995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080526 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080526Z - 080630Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE / SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN MN / NRN IA AND INTO SRN WI. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET HAS REMAINS W OF THIS REGION...JET SHOULD CONTINUE VEER AS PER LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. AS STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING LIFT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES / MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE / SPREAD EWD INTO THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK /NEAR 30 KT/...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A HAIL THREAT WITH WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM SWRN WI WWD ATTM...BUT AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE EWD AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 44659204 45168947 45168744 43098769 42559157 44039229 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 07:29:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 02:29:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080729.i487TSq28604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080727 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA / SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 080727Z - 080900Z STRONG / SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA. WEAKLY ORGANIZED / ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF WW IN N CENTRAL IA / SRN MN. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN EWD SHIFT IN GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TIME...WITH MAIN THREAT SLOWING SHIFTING INTO WI / WW #0161. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS NERN QUARTER IA FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND THE 08/09Z EXPIRATION OF WW. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF THREAT INTO WW #0161 WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44259454 44559217 42099217 41899456 43219595 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 08:37:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 03:37:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080837.i488bfq26194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080836 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA / CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 080836Z - 080930Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS STILL ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF WATCH WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS. ALTHOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF WATCH HAVE REMAINED LESS INTENSE...DESTABILIZATION IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS WW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD INTO E CENTRAL WI WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44979214 45248737 43248745 42859213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 10:36:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 05:36:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081036.i48Aavq17913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081035 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA / SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 081035Z - 081130Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A DECREASING TREND WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER REDUCING DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS CONVECTIVELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WATCH TO ALLOW A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST. BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT...NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED BEYOND THE 08/12Z EXPIRATION OF WW 0161. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43599222 44218962 44098745 43248745 42859213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 17:45:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 12:45:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081745.i48Hjuq30517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081744 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN MT...AND THE WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081744Z - 082015Z THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN MT...WITH STORMS MOVING ENEWD TOWARD WRN ND. LOCALIZED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 1730Z...A CLUSTER OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS FERGUS COUNTY MT...MOVING 230/45 KT. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT...THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NERN MT. LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...OF 30-40F...WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18C AT 500MB/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AN ELONGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED BAND THROUGH 20Z. TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ND...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE AND SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45820216 44620202 43970248 43900345 44240384 45190437 46370605 46870671 47250785 48330805 48730756 48940641 48980560 48980482 48970355 47650295 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:28:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:28:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081928.i48JSiq19235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081927 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW THROUGH ERN NEB AND CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081927Z - 082200Z SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND CNTRL IA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY 22Z-23Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE ISSUED. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL IA WWD THROUGH E CNTRL NEB THEN SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SW NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS SERN NEB THROUGH SW IA. THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED IN THIS REGION AND THIS IS PROVIDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...AND THE CAP MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE SPREADING INTO WRN NEB FROM ERN CO. ONE AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION IS ACROSS ERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA WHERE SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE IN THIS AREA TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE NEAR THE SW PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SW NEB WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER CAP. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL...STORMS THAT MOVE NEWD ALONG OR JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 42829212 41719220 41339359 41299483 41109711 40099960 40320055 41360004 42489820 43349442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:52:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:52:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081953.i48JrEq30690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081951 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL SC...SE AND WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081951Z - 082215Z WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS IN WRN NC SEWD THROUGH NRN SC. THIS BOUNDARY THEN INTERSECTS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN SERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THE SEA BREEZE AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGESTS ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE PULSE SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34467829 34668032 35288204 36188185 36098282 34828415 34438257 33317973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:55:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:55:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081956.i48JuDq32136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081953 TXZ000-NMZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...ERN/SERN NM...WRN/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081953Z - 082230Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20-23Z ALONG AN AXIS FROM 20SE DHT TO 40W INK. STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ISOLATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 1930Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES... DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND WEAK CONFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A SSWWD EXTENSION OF TOWERING CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN DHT AND AMA. THE UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS SRN TX IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS WRN TX /0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT/ ...WHICH MAY AID IN A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WEST OF UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY LIMIT EXTENT/COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE REGION. VERY STEEP SURFACE TO 500MB LAPSE RATES / 8-9 C/KM / AND MODEST WBZ HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING 30-35F AROUND PEAK HEATING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35410326 36000222 35840153 33660177 30410299 30420452 32000461 34020396  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 20:20:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 15:20:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082020.i48KKwq11391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082017 NDZ000-MTZ000-082115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 082017Z - 082115Z INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE IN NERN MT...ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 162. AT 2010Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM VALLEY COUNTY INTO SWRN MCCONE COUNTIES IN MT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY ENEWD AT 40-45 KT PASSING NEAR WOLF POINT AROUND 21Z. SPEED OF MOVEMENT...INCREASING REFLECTIVITY...AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 40F SUGGEST SEVERE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS FAR NERN MT DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 47030578 47690647 48070697 48800690 48920600 48940386 48520354 47550360 47350354 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 21:04:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 16:04:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082105.i48L5Dq00853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082100 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-082330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NRN IND AND SW MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082100Z - 082330Z AREAS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE IND-MI BORDER WWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND CONVERGENCE COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ALONG PARTS OF THE BOUNDARY BY LAKE BREEZE EFFECTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL SPREAD ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN MI INTO EXTREME NRN IND WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42448791 42168693 42218557 41928488 41378590 41448695 41778817 42278890  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:09:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:09:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082209.i48M9wq00383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082208 MIZ000-WIZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN WI INTO LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082208Z - 090015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. ONE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN MOIST LAYER RETURNING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THIS LIKELY WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43739009 44108877 44228732 44138544 43688368 42798268 42538444 42698649 42988843 42918949 43148998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:13:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:13:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082213.i48MDNq02350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082211 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 082211Z - 082315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #162 REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AT 22Z...TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NERN MT...WITH LINE MOVEMENT 240/45KT TOWARD FAR NWRN ND. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN ND SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z. AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL ND IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WHICH MAY LIMIT EWD PROGRESS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF CURRENT WATCH AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS NWRN ND DURING THE NEXT HOUR FOR PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WATCH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG CELLS ACROSS NWRN SD ARE EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 35-40F SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AT 15-20 KT ACROSS MEADE AND WRN ZIEBACH COUNTIES IN NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR SERN MT AS UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER MORE UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE MT/NWRN SD AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44340358 46700547 47020452 47880519 48440558 48950559 48950370 44350017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:29:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:29:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082229.i48MTdq09815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082228 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA...SW NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082228Z - 090100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. IN WAKE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST... SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH DEW POINTS RISING BACK TO NEAR 60F...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY...AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION AND PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ARE STRONG...AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42597960 42507885 41867851 41207869 40657897 39837921 39728012 39958085 40598067 41018098 41838136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:46:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:46:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082246.i48MkQq17484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082245 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-090045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163... VALID 082245Z - 090045Z CONTINUE WW. ANOTHER WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MIGRATING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM...INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...AND VICINITY OF NORFOLK NEB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS THROUGH THE 01-02Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41649913 41979767 42569649 42829520 42849375 42349259 42319189 42219123 41789114 41569267 41249357 40889517 40809653 40789785 41449939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 23:57:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 18:57:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082357.i48NvWq17029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082356 NEZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 082356Z - 090200Z CONTINUE WW. AS SUGGESTED BY EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST/NORTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO FOCUSING NEAR INTERSECTION OF PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH AND OLD CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...AND MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR GROWING HEAVY RAIN CORE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNBURST ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41119945 41309901 41409846 41429775 40659771 40299865 40329935 40879958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 00:17:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 19:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090018.i490I3q24956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090016 NDZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166... VALID 090016Z - 090215Z CONTINUE WW 166. AT 00Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BURKE COUNTY ND SWD INTO NRN HETTINGER COUNTY WAS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION ACROSS WRN ND MOVING EWD. IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OWING TO STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ND...HOWEVER...LARGER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40F MAY ENHANCE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MUCAPE REMAINS SUFFICIENT /500-1000 J/KG / TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. STORMS WILL AFFECT THE MINOT AREA AROUND 01Z. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48970269 47530252 46510248 46060140 46049807 48989987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 00:55:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 19:55:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090056.i490u0q10211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090054 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-090300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB INTO SOUTHERN IOWA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...164... VALID 090054Z - 090300Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY CURRENT 02Z WW EXPIRATION. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY AROUND 03Z...STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA NEB AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY STRONGEST WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...AS UNSATURATED LOW/MID LEVEL AIR MASS ALLOWS SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLUTION OF SURGING COLD POOLS. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS BY LATE EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41389841 41599654 41919607 42189525 42019372 41979260 41049310 40799427 40419542 39889625 40049855 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 01:47:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 20:47:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090147.i491lsq00593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090146 MIZ000-090345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0846 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090146Z - 090345Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK HAS PROGRESSED OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 06Z. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF FLINT AND PORT HURON BY THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. WHILE FRONTAL INVERSION APPEARS TO PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH SOME HAIL NEAR/JUST IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42488299 42428421 42578499 42878554 43218557 43458504 43568409 43348289 43308249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 02:18:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 21:18:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090218.i492IUq14045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090217 NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-090345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CENTRAL ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...168... VALID 090217Z - 090345Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEYOND WW 166 EXPIRATION TIME OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL SD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SCENTRAL SD WHERE A CLUSTER SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY MOVE OUT OF WW 168 BY 09/04Z...THEREFORE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR SERN SD. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ABR INDICATES SUBSTANTIALLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST...WITH MUCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL ND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT HOUR AND WW 166 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09/02Z. FARTHER SOUTH...INSTABILITY AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA INTO FAR NRN NEB. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUFFICIENT INFLOW/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SCENTRAL SD SOUTHEAST OF WW 168. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS CLUSTER MOVEMENT...300/30 KTS WOULD TAKE THE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF WW 168 BY 09/04Z. AREAS SE OF WW 168 WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 43340200 44000162 45879999 46300054 46790039 47890015 48969991 48509785 44999727 43629726 42849833 42990167 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 02:56:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 21:56:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090256.i492ufq29385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090255 PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-090500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...SRN LWR MI...LAKE ERIE VICINITY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167... VALID 090255Z - 090500Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW UNTIL 05Z EXPIRATION. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED...AND NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. BROADER TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LEAD FEATURE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT UPSTREAM IMPULSE...AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT... WHERE FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY IS MINIMIZING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN CAPE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...ISOLATED INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43309056 43568945 43348739 42938512 42918299 43108096 43007942 41788039 41258253 41908567 41878812 42509059 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 03:45:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 22:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090345.i493jpq17813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090344 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...SE NEB...NRN MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 090344Z - 090545Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...BUT RISK OF GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL WILL PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE WILL END ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER. MUCH OF AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED. AS A RESULT OF STABILIZING LAPSE RATES...INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 06Z. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD... 39909964 40309823 41189715 41439621 41579499 41339345 41299276 40689298 40229430 39869523 39489688 39229895 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 05:25:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 00:25:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090526.i495Q5q30848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082356 NEZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 082356Z - 090200Z CONTINUE WW. AS SUGGESTED BY EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST/NORTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO FOCUSING NEAR INTERSECTION OF PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH AND OLD CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...AND MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR GROWING HEAVY RAIN CORE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNBURST ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41119945 41309901 41409846 41429775 40659771 40299865 40329935 40879958  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 05:35:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 00:35:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090535.i495ZRq02179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090016 INZ000-MIZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... VALID 090016Z - 090215Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. BOUNDARY LAYER JUST SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE BREEZE...ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH INITIATED NEAR INTERSECTION OF BOUNDARIES MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH BEND. HOWEVER...WEAKENING TRENDS SHOULD COMMENCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX... 41768629 41848583 41688525 41318503 40968564 41138639 41438678  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 06:22:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 01:22:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090623.i496N7q21484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090622 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / N CENTRAL KS / IA / NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 090622Z - 090645Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/07Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION...SWD PROPAGATION CONTINUES TO SHIFT STORMS SWD AWAY FROM AXIS OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT SOUTH OF WW EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORM PULSES. THEREFORE...NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40259958 41329539 42139102 40189106 38009958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 14:35:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 09:35:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091436.i49Ea1q06433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091435 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-091530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091435Z - 091530Z SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND NRN OH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE MORNING UPDATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THIS MORNING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OH WWD TO NEAR THE IND/MI BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EXIST IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...SUGGESTING THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP PRESENT...STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 18Z. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42848570 42038108 41128094 41248288 41848615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 15:21:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 10:21:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091522.i49FLxq26707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091520 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-091745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...WRN SC...WRN NC AND SW VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091520Z - 091745Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND FOOTHILLS AREAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN NC. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY NEAR GREENSBORO. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ROANOKE AND GREENSBORO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 35158420 36218239 37407981 36167891 34968207 34638373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 16:13:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 11:13:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091614.i49GE3q17932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091612 MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WV...S-CENTRAL PA...CENTRAL/NRN VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD...WASHINGTON D.C. METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091612Z - 091845Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN PA/WRN MD/ERN WV DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WILL MOVE GENERALLY 280/20 KT. THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT 16Z...CIN HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN WV NWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED STORMS AND SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER THE MTNS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN VA...CENTRAL MD...AND S-CENTRAL PA TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUSTAINED BY SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38917983 40097891 40147786 40037708 38937687 38387706 37827753 37537812 37417894 37878042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 16:48:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 11:48:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091649.i49GnAq02912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091648 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...FAR NERN IL...CENTRAL/SRN MI...FAR NRN IND...AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091648Z - 091915Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AT 1630Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI. THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS VERY NEAR TO THE STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MSN EWD TO THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SWRN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THE FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM MKG TO FNT. MCV WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR SERN WI/NRN IL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ACARS DATA MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ORD INDICATES CIN IS NEAR ZERO. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND ENHANCED SHEAR WITH MCV MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED STORMS TAPPING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41528717 41768953 42948971 43698964 43908860 43808657 43688326 43128253 42198282 41928314 41278464 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 17:44:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 12:44:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091745.i49Hj6q29862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091743 PAZ000-091945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091743Z - 091945Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 1730Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN AN E-W ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM 25 SE FKL TO JUST NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PA...AND AS THIS AIR MASS ADVECTS EWD...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS JEFFERSON AND CLEARFIELD COUNTIES IN W-CENTRAL PA. MODERATELY STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PA. WBZ HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS. ALSO...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON STATE COLLEGE VAD /30-35 KT IN 3-4 KM LAYER/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 41537942 41497829 41447707 41357612 41307568 40967546 40577537 40227569 40167656 40167786 40257883 40417949 40577980 41097986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 19:01:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 14:01:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091901.i49J1oq01673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091900 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...ERN SD...AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091900Z - 092130Z STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH NERN SD AND FARTHER SW INTO SWRN SD. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN MN NWWD THROUGH NERN SD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. UPPER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH ND AND SRN CANADA...SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KT. AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SE ND THROUGH NERN SD...AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MN. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44229887 44779893 45519894 46429790 45679555 44599294 43979299 44059655 43499753 43479886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 19:44:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 14:44:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091944.i49JiSq20799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091942 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091942Z - 092215Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO PARTS OF NW KS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SERN SD SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SW NEB. THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH ERN CO. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND E OF THE DRY LINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD THROUGH NW KS. MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED DRYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN CO AND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO BETTER MOISTURE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NEB...ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS AREA SO MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB BOUNDARY MAY OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WITH THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE MOIST AXIS. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42309900 40270009 38580095 38310185 39540175 40490202 41720311 42430196 42900003  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 19:50:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 14:50:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091950.i49Jomq23730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091946 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL...FAR SERN WI...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...AND FAR NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... VALID 091946Z - 092115Z CONTINUE WW. AT 1935Z...TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AN MCV IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SERN WI LAKE SHORE SWD INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SEVERE CELLS AS STORMS CROSS CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 2130Z. EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG THIS HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BARRY COUNTY MI SSWWD TO CASS COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD AT 20 KT OR SO. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING IN ADVANCE OF EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41238791 43508795 44138259 41848260  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 20:08:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 15:08:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092008.i49K8vq32530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092007 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX...EXTREME SE NM...OK PANHANDLE AND SW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092007Z - 092230Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SW TX...AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NE NM THROUGH SE CO. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX THROUGH SW KS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 29480286 32360449 33700453 34380364 35660284 37710204 36810075 33020301 29860186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 20:33:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 15:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092033.i49KXjq12325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092029 WIZ000-MNZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AND E MN THROUGH W CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092029Z - 092200Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH ERN MN AND W CNTRL WI INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SE MN THROUGH W CNTRL WI. THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND S OF A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN WI INTO SE MN. SUPERCELL STORM OVER S CNTRL MN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD SUPPORTED BY LIFT AND MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY INFLOW ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THIS STORM MAY BE EVOLVING INTO A BOW ECHO AND GIVEN 25F-30F TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS STORM..THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX... 44459005 44189205 44369423 45539291 45379173 45119005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 21:47:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 16:47:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092147.i49Llqq12945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092146 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...EXTREME NERN I AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092146Z - 092245Z MONITORING EXTREME NERN IA....NRN IL AND SRN WI FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY FROM 30 W OF DBQ TO 20 W MMO. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH AN AIR MASS THAT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN WI. POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND SOME SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41248824 41349032 42349198 43359182 44159127 44248967 43778795 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 22:18:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 17:18:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092218.i49MImq25704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092217 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...FAR NRN IND...AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... VALID 092217Z - 092345Z CONTINUE WW. AT 22Z...CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN LAKE MICHIGAN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. CELLS WERE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD IN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW PER GRR AND DET VAD WIND PROFILES. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY USE THE MODERATE CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BETWEEN 2330-0000Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/NERN IL...WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN IA. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41178824 42058825 42358731 42658675 43218637 43788611 44148259 41848259 41498586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 22:39:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 17:39:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092239.i49Mdtq01924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092238 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-100045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/W CNTRL WI...CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092238Z - 100045Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 173 AND SEVERE WW 171. PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA INTO THE MINNEAPOLIS MN AREA...AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS EVOLUTION OF LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE...NEAR THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA...WHERE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD SPREAD INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY 10/00-01Z. OTHER INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG TRAILING UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE...BENEATH THERMAL RIDGE...SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SURGING COLD POOL WITH GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF MINNEAPOLIS INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 44199637 44199517 44709446 45289327 45929288 46489227 46629108 46048981 44939022 44319107 43679269 43459390 43389464 43169586 42679702 42499765 43559782 44039709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 23:14:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 18:14:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092314.i49NEpq16767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092312 NEZ000-100115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172... VALID 092312Z - 100115Z NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WWS 171/172 WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF SOUTHWEST/ WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED TO AROUND 90F ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING LARGE HAIL THREAT. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF WYOMING. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. EVOLUTION OF LARGE SURFACE COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT SURGES TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41380239 41780094 42069925 42599742 41449626 40439736 40209972 40450154  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 00:08:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 19:08:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100009.i4A099q05982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100008 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-100215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NERN MD...SRN NJ...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100008Z - 100215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SERN PA SEWD INTO SRN NJ/NERN MD/DE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 00Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS EXTEND FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY ESEWD INTO CHESTER COUNTY PA. STORMS ARE TRACKING GENERALLY 300/25 KT...GENERALLY ALONG A MODEST NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL PA INTO SRN NJ. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NERN MD AND PART OF THE DELMARVA. LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF MOST STORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS TAPPING BETTER AIR MASS ACROSS NERN MD MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z OR SO WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND. GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD MIGRATE INTO NERN MD/NRN DE/FAR SRN NJ. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39937769 40217750 40437692 40437632 40367593 40057553 39867531 39617508 39397515 39257537 39207589 39347662 39487746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 01:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 20:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100110.i4A1AXq30128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100109 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...176... VALID 100109Z - 100315Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. INTENSE LEADING LINE OF STORMS HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE...WHERE IT INTERSECTS SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF MADISON. DESPITE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT...WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE RESTRICTED BY ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING IN WARM SECTOR...AND STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...IT APPEARS DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WASAU/WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF APPLETON WILL BE LIMITED. A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH LEAD CLUSTER OF STORMS. THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND NORTH/EAST OF THE LA CROSSE AREA INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN STRONGEST CELLS. THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS MEAN FLOW REGIME BECOMES WESTERLY...AND INTENSE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44309462 44429374 44459276 44439149 45579119 46549177 46658959 45728840 45018807 43448870 43529038 43139302 43319419 43219505 43259567 43269637 43959574 44379484 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 02:05:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 21:05:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100205.i4A25Qq19432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100204 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LOWER MI...NERN IL/NRN IND AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175... VALID 100204Z - 100300Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOW BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN WW 175 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OH. THUS DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MESOHIGH. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NCENTRAL IND MAY POSE A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO NERN IND THROUGH 03Z...IF CELL MERGERS CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS BEFORE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 40988841 41578775 41638620 41958526 42208385 42038282 41428341 40958427 40958533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 02:44:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 21:44:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100244.i4A2iNq01927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100243 NEZ000-100445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...SRN...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177... VALID 100243Z - 100445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BECOME OVERTURNED. EXCEPTION TO THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE IMPERIAL/MCCOOK AREAS...WHERE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PERSIST. ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...FORCING ON NOSE OF 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOST INTENSE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW SURGING THROUGH THE GRAND ISLAND/KEARNEY AREAS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41189943 41409835 41869787 42339732 42399685 41869660 41089683 40489742 40149858 40129928 40369984 40840040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 03:21:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 22:21:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100322.i4A3MAq15772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100321 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL WI INTO SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176... VALID 100321Z - 100515Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LINE OF CONVECTION SURGING EASTWARD ON COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS BEEN SLOWEST TO WEAKEN NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES ARE ENHANCED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREA INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF GREEN BAY BY 05-06Z...BEFORE MORE RAPID WEAKENING LIKELY ENSUES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT WITH TRAILING BAND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LA CROSS WI/ROCHESTER MN AREAS THROUGH 05Z. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43699396 44139277 44289178 44069064 44008995 44478905 44858881 45158873 44918781 44448732 43658829 43438933 43399272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 04:29:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 23:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100429.i4A4Tpq11971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100428 NEZ000-100530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB/N CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177... VALID 100428Z - 100530Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 06-09Z...ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS/KEARNEY AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH BEYOND 05Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RISK FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS INCREASING IN SLOW MOVING TRAINING STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID... 40739966 41029915 41229835 41339789 41029746 40559742 40009836 40049907 40549972 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 17:44:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 12:44:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405101744.i4AHiEq28444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101743 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101743Z - 102015Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN VA. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE FLOW ALOFT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY. MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... 39297748 38547705 38027833 38097933 39167833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 19:05:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 14:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405101906.i4AJ6Aq22123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101904 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101904Z - 102130Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN WY BETWEEN 22-00Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. WW PROBABLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/NERN CO/WRN NEB PANHANDLE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WY AT 18Z WILL PUSH EWD THIS EVENING AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS NEWD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURFACE LOW /990MB/ NEWD INTO NWRN/NRN WY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB AS SURFACE WINDS TURN ESELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SERN WY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ BY 00Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME EXTREMELY SHEARED BY 00Z WITH 400-500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ONLY QUESTION FOR TORNADOES IS MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MARGINALLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...BUT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE AREA WHERE MOIST AXIS APPEARS TO BE ESTABLISHING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /2?+/ WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS. AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS E-CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 22-00Z...ANTICIPATE HIGH BASED CUMULUS TOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TO EVOLVE INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR ERN/SERN WY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF FAR NRN CO WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT IN NERN CO THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 40110512 42190607 43520669 44150660 44550652 44780581 44790500 44510431 44070424 43210395 41920355 40090310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 19:15:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 14:15:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405101916.i4AJG6q29539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101914 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA AND WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101914Z - 102145Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NE OH THROUGH WRN NY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING FROM NE OH THROUGH NW PA AND WRN NY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW IS LIMITING THE 0-6 KM SHEAR TO GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42417912 43107737 43187587 42077582 40898068 41268151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 22:45:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 17:45:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405102245.i4AMjfq12912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102243 MTZ000-WYZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178... VALID 102243Z - 110045Z CONTINUE WW...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CENTER OF RAPID PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH DEVELOPED EAST/NORTHEAST OF RIVERTON A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...IS NOW SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AREAS EAST OF THE BIG HORNS...AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY THE 11/00-02Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL RETURNING...RAPID DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING NUMBER OF STORMS...THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CELLULAR IN NATURE. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING... AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45690881 46100796 45810602 45350520 44670435 43620407 41940421 41890475 42400586 43120662 44470705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 23:06:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 18:06:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405102306.i4AN6Oq26154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102305 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IN...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI...NW OH CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102305Z - 110100Z WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO HUDSON/JAMES BAY...WHERE A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET NOSES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THOUGH STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FOCUS/FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND APPEAR TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 41578313 40908519 40418753 39998926 41078919 42508736 43248569 43518374 43628269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 23:12:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 18:12:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405102312.i4ANCJq29911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102310 COZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CO EAST OF FRONT RANGE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... VALID 102310Z - 110045Z CONTINUE WW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CO...GENERALLY WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONT RANGE. STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY NEWD AT 10-15 KT. AT LOW-LEVELS...ESELY TO SELY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S/. ASSOCIATED STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT PER PUEBLO VAD WIND PROFILE. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...AND VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWER. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37590216 37550488 40950512 41000221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 00:43:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 19:43:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110044.i4B0i7q18692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110043 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-110245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES SWD INTO WRN TX AND ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110043Z - 110245Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DISORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 0030Z...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE SWD INTO ERN NM/WRN TX CONTINUE WITH EMBEDDED STRONG REFLECTIVITY AND VIL CORES. STORMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED...HOWEVER...EFFICIENT REGENERATION OF CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F. STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...AND MOST UPDRAFTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS...BUT UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ON THE MESOSCALE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34500026 36840024 36780231 35290353 34090383 32890383 32470281 32710074  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 01:07:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 20:07:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110107.i4B17nq30756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110106 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT INTO NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...179... VALID 110106Z - 110300Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY CURRENT 02Z WW EXPIRATION TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS...NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/ WYOMING FRONT RANGE. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SLOW VEERING OF MID/UPPER FLOW ALONG/EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 06Z. AS DEEP SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING... RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SUPERCELL EAST OF DOUGLAS WY...AND SUPERCELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DENVER CO MAY DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES WEST OF INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45760744 45790602 45300455 44240358 42760244 41900214 40470193 38250299 38750403 40970479 42270533 43030560 44120652 44930725 45370745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 02:35:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 21:35:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110235.i4B2ZPq13653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110234 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-110400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NCENTRAL KS AND SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... VALID 110234Z - 110400Z SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT MAY NOW HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB IS POSSIBLE. LATEST 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND LBF INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700 MB. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SWRN KS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM MERGERS AND DEVELOPING/DEEPENING OF THE COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED WIND THREAT NEWD INTO THE NRN AND ERN HALF OF WW 180 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET TO OVER 45 KTS BY 06Z WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36910109 38040111 38590129 38730204 40030191 40039968 39989925 36899985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 03:11:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 22:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110311.i4B3BFq30914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110308 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA/LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 110308Z - 110615Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES ESEWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN NJ INTO NYC METRO/WRN LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE CELL TRAINING IS ANTICIPATED. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX AND IAD INDICATED PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.30 INCHES OR ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS HAS AIDED IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH RAINFALL RATES UP 2 INCHES/HR WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS OVER SERN NY HAS BECOME ORIENTED WNW-ESE FROM NERN PA TO JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AREA. FORECAST CELL MOTIONS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO 35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STORM INITIATION AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THE NYC METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE FEED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... 40397412 40547535 41037585 41267590 41327519 41187412 40977378 40757358 40417397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 03:20:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 22:20:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110320.i4B3Kfq02551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110319 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...CO/WY FRONT RANGE...NEB PNHDL...WRN SD...SW ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181... VALID 110319Z - 110515Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW NORTHEAST OF 181 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. VAD WIND DATA INDICATES MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO VEER ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING INHIBITION IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ALONG/WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN WYOMING AND MONTANA/SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDERS THROUGH 06Z. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ON EASTERN EDGE OF CAP. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH SUPERCELLS BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...GGW... 45740586 46590508 46240359 44780313 42730313 42340345 41860357 40840391 41170410 41180470 42170489 43010505 44110541 44620573 45380585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 03:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 22:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110354.i4B3sVq18160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110353 NDZ000-MTZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110353Z - 110600Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY 06Z. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF BILLINGS...AND THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY/DEVELOP INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT NEXT FEW HOURS. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS ACTIVITY IS BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...WITH CAPE GENERALLY OR THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...FORCING/INCREASING MOISTURE ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE AND MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES MAY AID EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...THOUGH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 47540815 48300691 48420380 47240359 46830559 46560720 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 06:30:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 01:30:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110630.i4B6UBq21847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110627 SDZ000-NEZ000-110730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB AND MUCH OF SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... VALID 110627Z - 110730Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS NEB INTO CENTRAL SD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED LATER FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS.. STRENGTHENING LLJ/WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLUSTERS OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD WHERE ASCENT ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED STRUCTURES. SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WILL MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41400154 42780294 45080243 45139919 42149952  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 15:53:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 10:53:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111554.i4BFs7q27896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111553 RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL NJ...SERN NY...CT...AND WRN RI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111553Z - 111830Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS ERN PA/NRN NJ/SERN NY/CT AREA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH STRONGER CELLS. AT 1530Z...STRONG DRYING IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS WSWWD ACROSS WRN MA INTO THE CATSKILLS AND ALONG THE NRN PA/SRN NY BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TOWARD ERN PA/NRN NJ/NYC METRO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS ALREADY BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FURTHER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN A WSW-ENE ORIENTED FASHION ALONG THE FRONT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS REGARDING HOW INTENSE STORMS WILL BE. DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THE 12Z ETA DROPS SFC-6KM SHEAR FROM 20KT TO 10KT OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z. HOWEVER... 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AT OKX AND CHH WERE AROUND 7 C/KM THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 18Z AND MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT THROUGH ERN PA/NRN AND CENTRAL NJ/NYC AREA/SRN CT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND STORM INTENSITY NEAR THE COASTLINE. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41587450 41657376 41767262 41857197 41807168 41327160 41137158 40867229 40527325 40217419 40157480 40057621 41447608 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 17:06:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 12:06:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111706.i4BH6Zq22215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111704 WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-111930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OH...CENTRAL/NRN IND...AND SWRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111704Z - 111930Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FROM CENTRAL OH NWWD INTO NWRN IND/FAR SWRN MI. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. AT 1645Z...BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF IND INTO CENTRAL OH. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WEST OF CMH WWD TO THE IND BORDER. THIS REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITH EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF OH WNWWD INTO FAR SWRN MI. THIS FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD INTO SWRN MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN NERN IND/NWRN OH/SWRN MI. ILN SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT YIELDS MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /10-20 KT/ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH REGENERATION OF CELLS ALONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND... 39868454 40188533 40668621 41088631 42168614 42128475 41568443 41278393 41048292 41018224 41078129 41098062 40288061 39738086 39538137 39578229 39598338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 18:33:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 13:33:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111833.i4BIXJq22156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111832 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD THROUGH W CNTRL MN NW AND N CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111832Z - 112030Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN SD AND INTO NW NEB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NE SD. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN SD FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW IN NW SD. A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH WRN SD INTO NW NEB. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE ACROSS NW SD. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF SD INTO NEB. MOIST AXIS HAS RETURNED NWWD THROUGH NEB AND SD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN STILL SHOWS A STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S AND CAP WEAKENS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE MAINTAINING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER ERN NEB AND SD THROUGH WRN MN. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES. BEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NE SD INTO W CNTRL MN. FARTHER W ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH WRN NEB ...HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41900289 42710328 43540305 44530350 45690295 46220023 46059590 45139578 44089951 42300123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 19:02:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 14:02:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111902.i4BJ2Vq12900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111900 NEZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SW NEB...WRN KS...NE NM THROUGH THE TX AND OH PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111900Z - 112100Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...THE CAP WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOW MODERATE SSWLY FLOW THROUGH 6 KM BUT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST PRIMARY MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY FROM WRN KS THROUGH SW NEB. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35270349 38590246 40660205 40890089 35500098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 19:33:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 14:33:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111934.i4BJY6q04319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111933 TXZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111933Z - 112130Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW TX IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD SUPPORTED BY MOIST UNSTABLE SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS WEAK AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION OR UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30110213 29790271 30780375 32130202 31310042 29910100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 20:02:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 15:02:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112002.i4BK2Uq26583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111958 TXZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S AND SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... VALID 111958Z - 112100Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF BOW ECHO MOVING EWD THROUGH SE TX. BOW ECHO STORM OVER SE TX JUST NW OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA REMAINS ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PERIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE STORM IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40 KT AND BASED ON THIS MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA NEAR 2030Z. MUCH OF THE INFLOW TO THIS MCS STILL COMING FROM THE MOIST UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER THE WRN GULF...SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DESPITE MOVING INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY EARLIER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... 28639643 28939610 29359598 29779615 29979558 29749507 29449500 29119518 28729582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 20:04:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 15:04:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112004.i4BK4kq28400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112000 TXZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S AND SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... VALID 112000Z - 112100Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF BOW ECHO MOVING EWD THROUGH SE TX. BOW ECHO STORM OVER SE TX JUST NW OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA REMAINS ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE STORM IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40 KT AND BASED ON THIS MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA NEAR 2030Z. MUCH OF THE INFLOW TO THIS MCS STILL COMING FROM THE MOIST UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER THE WRN GULF...SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DESPITE MOVING INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY EARLIER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... 28639643 28939610 29359598 29779615 29979558 29749507 29449500 29119518 28729582  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 22:05:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 17:05:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112205.i4BM5Iq14830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112204 SDZ000-NEZ000-120000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD INTO W CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184... VALID 112204Z - 120000Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR DEEP SURFACE LOW ...NORTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE INTO AREAS EAST OF ALLIANCE NEB...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH STRONG HEATING. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL IN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET LIFTING OUT OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS. EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW BY THE 12/00-02Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS PIERRE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH. INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF PIERRE ...AS SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42140235 43020194 43830166 44510059 44820017 45089983 45099915 44079875 42579983 41740086 41860190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 22:21:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 17:21:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112221.i4BMLiq25144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112220 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB/WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185... VALID 112220Z - 120015Z CONTINUE WW. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STILL WEAK ALONG DRY LINE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO/KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BEGIN TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AFTER 12/00Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 41080136 41430094 40970018 39020036 37410024 36960125 37340176 38090178 39290163 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 22:38:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 17:38:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112238.i4BMcnq03123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112237 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NE SD/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112237Z - 120030Z CONTINUE WW 187...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA MN/ ABERDEEN SD...INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF PIERRE. BOUNDARY HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS IT SLOWLY SURGES SOUTHWARD...ENHANCING LIFT OF MOIST POTENTIAL UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE BEING UNDERCUT BY FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS IS WHERE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRIDING SHALLOW COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH PRIMARY ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS THIS EVENING. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE/NORTH OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45449941 46059935 47339824 48249744 48329540 47119474 45929614 45249784 45069871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 23:03:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 18:03:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112303.i4BN3wq18018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112303 LAZ000-TXZ000-120000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... VALID 112303Z - 120000Z MOIST SELY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION AHEAD OF BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SERN TX. CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 30 MPH INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WITH MUCAPE CAPE AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE FORECAST. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC TO 6 KM ARE SWLY AT 25 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AT THIS TIME WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT 00 UTC EXPIRATION TIME. ..BRIGHT.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29539530 29809492 30459480 30819375 29869336 29159510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 23:54:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 18:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112354.i4BNspq14147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112353 SDZ000-NEZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112353Z - 120200Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 187...AND NEW WW 189. THREAT FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12/03-04Z. UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS UNDERWAY IN MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH/EAST OF DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR PIERRE. WARM SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE BASED CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL ACROSS THE CHAMBERLAIN/WINNER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AROUND 12/01Z. THIS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AS 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE/ HEIGHT FALL CENTER ALREADY SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44749985 45159933 45559846 45819735 45129690 44139712 43429784 43139862 42919927 42810060 44199983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 00:20:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 19:20:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120020.i4C0KNq27422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120019 TXZ000-OKZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... VALID 120019Z - 120215Z MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRY LINE OVER THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES FROM THE VICINITY OF GUY TO ABOUT 25 MILES SW AMA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTHWARD IN WW. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLEARLY DEPICTED IN 18 UTC ETA FORECAST OF DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE. THE PASSAGE OF VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 500 MB. MODELS INDICATE SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS BY 03 UTC...PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELLULAR OR SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE /CURRENTLY AROUND 2200 J/KG PER RUC FORECAST/ SUPPORTS CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BRIGHT.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 32990288 34970296 35640233 36820209 36830006 32980011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 00:23:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 19:23:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120023.i4C0Ngq29884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120022 MNZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND INTO N CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190... VALID 120022Z - 120215Z CONTINUE WW. MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NEAR INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHARP SURFACE FRONT...NOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERGUS FALLS MN. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE VERY SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT OF TORNADO THREAT...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/GROW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH RISK OF TORNADOES CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BEMIDJI. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46929649 47659613 48099552 48269394 47729357 46849428 46679515 46479598 46569654 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 01:03:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 20:03:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120103.i4C13wq21159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120102 NEZ000-COZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120102Z - 120300Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN LEFT EXIT REGION BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AREA OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO AREAS WEST OF NORTH PLATTE NEB...AND DRY LINE IS RETREATING TOWARD THIS AREA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS...NORTH/EAST OF ALLIANCE INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF SIDNEY. WEAK COLD FRONT ALREADY NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT STRONGER CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41160281 41940241 42750129 42630060 41540075 40680100 40090147 40090219 40330254 40470296 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 02:21:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 21:21:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120222.i4C2M7q32201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120218 TXZ000-OKZ000-120315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PANHANDLE/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... VALID 120218Z - 120315Z LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE RETREATING WEST...WITH THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF WW 188. THE STORMS OVER BEAVER AND ROBERTS COUNTY ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY...AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE...THE STORMS OVER KENT/KING COUNTIES IN THE SERN PORTION OF THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...ALSO ARE WEAKENING PER THE LATEST LUBBOCK RADAR. WITH CONVERGENCE DECREASING...THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12/03Z. ..TAYLOR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 33020181 33590293 35650300 36770290 36820197 36790068 36300012 34450008 33250007 33000078  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 02:40:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 21:40:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120241.i4C2f0q10296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120239 SDZ000-NEZ000-120445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL NEB INTO SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189... VALID 120239Z - 120445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE GUST FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN/EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IN WAKE OF LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL...TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. COOLING HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE LEE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERCUT CONVECTIVE BAND...LIKELY LIMITING SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. BAND WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF ALLIANCE INTO THE VALENTINE AREA...UNTIL MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES THOUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... 41800211 42830108 43159940 43619847 43009791 41869839 41369909 41020071 41080182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 03:09:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 22:09:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120309.i4C39tq25154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120308 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191... VALID 120308Z - 120515Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW GUST FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL GENERATED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER...JUST AHEAD OF SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE CONVECTION HAS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS...WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM AND MOIST INTO AREAS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW NEAR FARGO. THUS... POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 45699756 46319713 46669685 46679550 45629545 44369577 43719663 43479782 43929831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 04:22:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 23:22:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120423.i4C4N1q29579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120421 LAZ000-120615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 120421Z - 120615Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY SHIFTING ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. RECENT INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S LIKELY SUPPORTED MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRED NEAR RAIN CORE FOR EVOLUTION OF WEAK SMALL COLD POOL...WHICH IS SURGING EAST AROUND 30 KT...TOWARD LAFAYETTE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS SOME HAIL IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS REDEVELOPING UPSTREAM ABOVE COLD POOL. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGGED TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS MOIST ENVIRONMENT EAST OF LAFAYETTE. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30669304 30859232 30689158 30309110 29649082 29179103 29249164 29449237 29389297 29939329 30259318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 16:30:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 11:30:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405121630.i4CGUuq02755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121629 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-121830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121629Z - 121830Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING WITHIN 60+F SURFACE DEW POINT AXIS AHEAD OF FRONT NOW SUPPORTING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO NERN IA/SERN MN. 12Z SOUNDING FROM MSP INDICATED LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER STEEP...WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. HOWEVER... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SBCAPES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES AND/OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY WARRANT A WW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42379345 43259376 44689315 46009226 46189128 45339038 43819048 42499093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 19:24:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 14:24:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405121924.i4CJODq04330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121922 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 121922Z - 122045Z NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WISCONSIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42749392 46969241 46898801 42669008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 20:25:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:25:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122025.i4CKPQq18518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122023 KSZ000-OKZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122023Z - 122230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS KS FROM NORTH OF TOP TO JUST SOUTH OF DDC WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN DDC...P28 /MEDICINE LODGE/ AND GAG. DRY LINE IS NOT WELL DEFINED OVER WRN OK ATTM...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG...THOUGH 18Z SOUNDING FROM DDC MAINTAINS A STRONG CAP OVER SWRN KS. HOWEVER...FURTHER HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THIS CAP AND LATEST ANALYSES SUGGEST CAP IS ALMOST ERODED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN KS. 18Z RUC AND ETA RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS RAPID QPF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z. STORMS MAY INITIATE SOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NERN KS...WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO CONTINUE SWWD ALONG THE FRONT OR IN A SEPARATE REGION NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST INTO SWRN KS/FAR NWRN OK SUGGESTING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THIS REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 39639686 39709564 38789506 37249727 36689950 37000089 37890090 38469874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 20:38:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122038.i4CKcUq26976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122037 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI ..EXTRM SERN MN AND NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 122037Z - 122200Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHEASTERN IOWA. PORTION OF THE LINE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING SEVERAL BOW STRUCTURES IN THE RADAR SIGNATURE AND THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET ACROSS THE LINE FROM EAST TO WEST. EXPECT INCREASED WIND THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH ..BOTHWELL.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42689407 47089205 47018799 42639025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 21:42:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 16:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122142.i4CLgWq07168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122141 OKZ000-TXZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122141Z - 122315Z MONITORING AREAS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITH THE NEXT HOUR. A DOUBLE STRUCTURE DRY LINE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF GAGE SSWWD TO NEAR CDS/LBB AND ANOTHER FROM EAST OF CSM TO LTS TO NEAR ABI. ALTHOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...IT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TO SSELY IN THE MOIST AIR. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ONLY AT 20-30 KT ...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS MOVING IN FROM WRN TX/NM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..IMY.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35000009 35869974 36219841 36389767 32599909 32570011 33120079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 22:23:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 17:23:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122223.i4CMN4q32461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122222 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 122222Z - 122315Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 192 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EWD INTO ERN WI/WRN-MID UPPER MI THROUGH 02Z. GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF ADDITIONAL THREATS...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO NERN IA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH SUPPORTS LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AS IS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET OVER WI/UPPER MI SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD MOVING BOW SEGMENT OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY BEYOND 02-03Z SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MARGINAL GIVEN TREND FOR WEAKENING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT 20-30 KT EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME OR SLOWLY DECREASE. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43148804 42819036 42809209 44149096 44968982 45998951 46908896 47128861 46648659 45358666 43558777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 23:16:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 18:16:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122316.i4CNG3q01199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122314 KSZ000-COZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122314Z - 130015Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF ERN CO AND WRN KS. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN CO ARE SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW INTO SERN CO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY INCREASING WWD. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OVER SERN CO DURING THE LAST HOUR WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UP TO 50 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN KS. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37750041 37460127 37780327 38180380 39550394 39930293 39660046 39090024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 00:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 19:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130010.i4D0ALq30543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130008 KSZ000-COZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SW KS...NW OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193... VALID 130008Z - 130115Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS INTO NWRN OK. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS AT THE INTERSECTION OF SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE/QUASI-STATIONARY KS BOUNDARY FROM BARBER COUNTY TO PRATT/COMANCHE COUNTIES...AND NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT TO ERN PORTION OF CENTRAL KS AROUND MARION COUNTY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-55 KT AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100 MB MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/ IN THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW KS. ALTHOUGH A STORM EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF WW 193 OVER MARION COUNTY...WEAK VIL VALUES SUGGEST STORM IN THIS AREA ARE STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT ADJACENT TO WW 193...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. THUS... PORTIONS OF ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW IF ACTIVITY CAN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37750041 37460127 37780327 38180380 39550394 39930293 39660046 39090024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 01:05:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 20:05:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130105.i4D15Cq28186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130103 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/FAR SRN MS/FAR SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130103Z - 130200Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH 03Z ACROSS FAR SERN LA TO FAR SWRN AL. ACTIVITY WILL EITHER MOVE OFF THE LA COAST BY THAT TIME OR WEAKEN EWD INTO STABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN AL. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG TWO COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SWRN AL SWWD TO NRN JEFFERSON PARISH LA THEN WWD TO NEAR LCH. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE SSEWD MOVING BOUNDARIES IS AIDING IN SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY IS STABILIZING WITH TIME...BUT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND GUSTS TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ALONG 15-20 KT MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29879078 30409029 30308936 30858866 30788811 30118822 29168892 28948933 29039015 29339064 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 01:06:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 20:06:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130106.i4D16iq28741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130104 OKZ000-TXZ000-130230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... VALID 130104Z - 130230Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SEGMENTED DRYLINE STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM BECKHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OK TO KING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TX...AND THEN FROM AROUND STONEWALL COUNTY TOWARD FISHER COUNTY IN NWRN TX. AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 50 MB MLCAPE VALUES ABOUT 4000 J/KG PER RUC ANALYSIS AND 00 UTC OUN RAOB. ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF WW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELL STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER OK...AS SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35 KTS BY 03 UTC. LACKING A LARGER SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE BEYOND 03 UTC OVER OK PORTION OF THE WW. ..BRIGHT.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32240081 33180059 34289985 34849971 36159938 36229781 36059768 32259889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 04:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 23:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130456.i4D4uUq17187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130455 KSZ000-OKZ000-130700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196... VALID 130455Z - 130700Z PREVIOUSLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE NOW EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A STORM CLUSTER AS OUTFLOW SURGES SWD FROM THE CLUSTER INTO NRN OK...AND THE STORMS FARTHER E DEVELOP INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOW ECHO. A 40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO FEED NEAR 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN OK INTO THE STORMS ACROSS SRN KS...AND THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...BACK-BUILDING STORMS ACROSS S CENTRAL KS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE SAME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SUPERCELLS EARLIER THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36559670 36389764 36289835 36629880 36939894 37369878 37749798 37989666 38229615 38939597 39079514 38349503 37389509 36899510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 08:14:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 03:14:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130814.i4D8EFq07825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130812 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 196... VALID 130812Z - 130915Z EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN MCS THAT IS SPREADING INTO WRN MO AND NERN OK. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EAST OF THE WW ACROSS HENRY/ST CLAIR COUNTIES IN MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT PROPAGATES EWD...HOWEVER ONLY ISOLATED HAIL REPORTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS THUS A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION INTO BACK SIDE OF MCS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN KS WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38669700 37959583 38079467 38689411 38369348 37129412 36459555 36599705 37459825 38379862 38969802 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 08:55:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 03:55:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130855.i4D8tUq25263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130852 TXZ000-131015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ERN TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 130852Z - 131015Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX... LLJ/WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO ECNTRL TX AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN TX. THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS AIDING THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVER SERN TX. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION WITHIN MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS OF SOME CONCERN IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES WERE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT THINKING IS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND INCREASE IN DEPTH WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADING ACROSS ERN TX AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ..DARROW.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29749750 32579612 32099407 29659451  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 14:56:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 09:56:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405131456.i4DEu2q23043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131454 TXZ000-131630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197... VALID 131454Z - 131630Z INTENSE MCS CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH...FROM BURLESON...LEE...AND BASTROP COUNTIES...WWD AND THEN NWD INTO NWRN TX. STRONG CONFLUENT INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST BUT OVERALL COMPLEX MOVING LITTLE. UPDRAFTS ROOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM ERN TRAVIS COUNTY ACROSS NRN BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ARE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO HIGH VALUES OF 0-1KM SRH DUE TO 40-50KT LLJ. FORCING...INSTABILITY AND LOW LFC ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30239425 29589779 30719785 31339423 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 15:22:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 10:22:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405131521.i4DFLxq09951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131520 OKZ000-TXZ000-131715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN...CNTRL...AND NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131520Z - 131715Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER A RATHER LARGE REGION FROM NWRN TX ACROSS SWRN... CNTRL...AND NERN OK. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE NOON FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE... WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN TX ACROSS NWRN AND NCNTRL OK. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN/NCNTRL OK COULD DEVELOP LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES BEFORE BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE COLLISION ACROSS CNTRL OK WAS RESULTING RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH STORMS ON THE FRONT LATER TODAY WITH LARGE MCS RESULTING. POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH TIME FROM NWRN TX ACROSS NCNTRL OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33439795 32939913 33310137 34220034 35529930 36499750 36959643 36079573 34229593 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 22:07:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 17:07:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405152206.i4FM6wo12550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152205 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152205Z - 152330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT 01Z/ FROM NRN MD NEWD TO MA/SRN NH. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VT SWWD ACROSS ERN NY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO WV. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. VAD WINDS FROM CENTRAL PA TO NRN VT INDICATE 35-40 KT WSWLY WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 2-4 KM. THESE WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH 20-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MD/DE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL PER 18Z RUC...THUS ANY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ..PETERS.. 05/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 43487122 42997071 41987104 41647161 41227319 40837358 40167401 39327464 38727519 38707647 39007758 39747726 40617637 41207540 41937478 42697330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 22:39:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 17:39:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405152239.i4FMdeo29498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152238 TXZ000-NMZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NM AND FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152238Z - 160045Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST TROUGH 01Z. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE E SLOPE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER W OF MRF. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ADVECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR W TX AND SE NM...WHICH HAS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND 15 KT ESELY SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SWD/SEWD AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NRN MEXICO. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT OR LONG-LIVED. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND MODEST PW VALUES SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. ..THOMPSON.. 05/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31650637 31980626 32340603 32730593 33090560 33050496 32740480 31690470 31320437 30850348 30560343 30350430 30410476 31230591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 22:59:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 17:59:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405152259.i4FMxBo05574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152258 NDZ000-SDZ000-160030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152258Z - 160030Z ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS FROM CENTRAL ND SWD INTO CENTRAL SD. 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING GENERALLY N-S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FROM 60 NW DVL TO 20 NE VTN...AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ND AND NWRN SD. A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE DISCRETE STORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE BEING FED FROM THE WSW AS THEY MOVE ESEWD ATOP A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS BEEN INHIBITED FROM DESTABILIZATION BY CLOUDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY FROM ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY SOURCE...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL SPATIAL/TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL /THROUGH 01-02Z ACROSS SD/...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER REGIONAL RADARS ACROSS ND. ..PETERS.. 05/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47770001 47779873 46329809 45769809 44459839 43449900 43530018 46090040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 18:15:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 13:15:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405161815.i4GIF0o23333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161813 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN...EXTREME NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161813Z - 162015Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...AND PERHAPS NWRN IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SD/MN MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ATOP FRONTAL INVERSION... ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND SWD MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING SURFACE-BASED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. WATER VAPOR...PROFILER/VWP DATA...AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE EMERGING OVER ERN CO. THE LEADING DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO HAVE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NWRN NEB INTO SERN SD. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL WIND MAX...ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN NEB. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SRN NEB WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE ZONE OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND FUEL PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL...EFFECTIVE/CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER NORTH OF THE FRONT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS SERN SD INTO NERN NEB...SHOULD PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING AND RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 42229653 41569853 41499926 42310018 44519944 44979856 45129686 44589584 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 20:05:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 15:05:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405162004.i4GK4uo14674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162002 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162002Z - 162130Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCRS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE REGION SHORTLY. DRYLINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED LAST 2 HOURS OVER ERN CO AND WAS MIXING EAST TOWARD WRN KS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM WITH LATEST RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. EXPECT CU FIELD SOUTH OF GLD TO DEVELOP INTO TSTMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK LINEAR FORCING WOULD FAVOR DISCRETE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40340211 40860178 41120027 40669960 37310045 37200181 38490226  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 23:06:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 18:06:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405162306.i4GN6Bo01618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162304 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207... VALID 162304Z - 170030Z BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...EVIDENT FROM GOVE COUNTY KS NNEWD TOWARD BBW AS OF 23Z. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF DRYLINE FARTHER S. LINE OF TSTMS BETWEEN HARLAN COUNTY NEB AND TREGO COUNTY KS WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WITHIN 1-2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. AREA FARTHER E -- TOWARD RSL/CNK/BIE...IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE/LEE CYCLONE BETWEEN LBF-ANW...DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ROUGHLY ALONG MCK-EHA LINE. SFC LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO WW 208 GIVEN STRENGTH OF NERN NEB PRESSURE FALLS. EXPECT DRYLINE TO MOVE LITTLE OVER MOST OF WW EXCEPT FOR EWD DRIFT IN NEB. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EVIDENT ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS -- JUST BEHIND DRYLINE...MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 50S F SFC DEW POINTS AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE...300-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH EVIDENT OVER WRN KS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN DISCRETE TSTMS SUCH AS THAT OVER GOVE COUNTY. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS DIABATIC COOLING COMMENCES IN PRE-STORM MOIST SECTOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37020235 39090206 39160142 41630106 41619879 37039961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 23:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 18:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405162356.i4GNuHo23305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162355 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN NEB...SERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 208... VALID 162355Z - 170200Z SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS WW WILL MOVE NEWD WITH CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- WITH WIND/HAIL DAMAGE POSSIBLE -- AND BOW ECHO EVOLUTION. SEVERAL TORNADOES AND ROTATING WALL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED PAST HOUR IN HOLT/SHERMAN COUNTIES FROM SEPARATE SUPERCELLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE WITHIN TRIANGLE BOUNDED BY BBW-LBF-ANW. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. AS CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH REGION...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST INVOF WARM FRONT AND IN ADJACENT PORTIONS WARM SECTOR. 500-900 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH APPEARS IN PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH 50-60 KT SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER. MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG. 50-60 KT LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40369926 41329930 42799928 42979926 43469639 40909637 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 00:28:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 19:28:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170028.i4H0Sfo04938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170027 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 170027Z - 170330Z HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- LOCALLY APCHG 3 INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER OF TWO SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NERN NEB. MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL REPRESENTED BY WW 208 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND REGIONAL RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST ABOUT 1 INCH PW...HOWEVER DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOCUS 50-60 KT LLJ INTO THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING S-R INFLOW AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY. SLOW MOVEMENT OF TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGERS WILL AUGMENT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OF BOTH CONVECTIVE AREAS -- FIRST FROM BOONE TO CUSTER/DAWSON COUNTY AND SECOND FROM KNOX TO LOUP COUNTIES -- IS CONDUCIVE TO ECHO TRAINING. BOTH CLUSTERS CONTAIN SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND NEWD FROM PRESENT POSITIONS TOWARD OLU...YKN AND OFK AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41389644 41189697 40979919 40939965 41169953 41629900 41839859 41929867 41939910 41899937 41999940 42659845 43139736 43209697 43099672 42749662 41619635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:09:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:09:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170109.i4H19Ro24985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170107 NEZ000-KSZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL KS...SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 170107Z - 170230Z POTENTIALLY DAMAGING BOW WITH BOOKEND VORTEX SIGNATURE HAS MOVED DIRECTLY OVER RDA FOR HASTINGS WSR-88D...AND IS MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT TOWARD FILLMORE/THAYER/SALINE/JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IF THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS IT WILL AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN BIE-LNK BY ABOUT 2Z. ADDITIONAL LEWP/BOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH WILL EFFECT PORTIONS KS N OF I-70 OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. FOREGOING AIR MASS SUPPORTS SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES 300-500 J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38749922 40479922 40909641 39169642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:23:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:23:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170122.i4H1Mlo31115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170121 MNZ000-IAZ000-170315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0821 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170121Z - 170315Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN MN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN THIS EVENING OWING TO NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUGHLY SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PQN TO ULM TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES METRO. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. PROGRESSIVELY LATER THIS EVENING AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...ISOLD LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY HAZARD. SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KTS PER WOOD LAKE PROFILER/ AND DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /E.G. 8.0 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE IN 00Z OAX SOUNDING. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43609596 44189614 45239562 45559333 44759287 43879263 43439315 43359486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:59:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:59:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170159.i4H1x4o16895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170157 KSZ000-COZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207... VALID 170157Z - 170330Z ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 3Z EXPIRATION. ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- WILL DRIFT SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SCOTT/LANE/NESS/HODGEMAN/FINNEY/GRAY COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH GCK-DDC CORRIDOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ABOUT 2 INCHES/HOUR. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT. 40-50 KT LLJ EVIDENT OVER REGION IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND 00Z DDC RAOB...ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO ALIGNMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE AND YIELDING UP TO 60 KT S-R INFLOW. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN MCS OVER AREA WITH MUCAPE ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG AND LARGE/LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37020231 39020203 38930117 39189922 37009961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 02:27:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 21:27:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170227.i4H2Reo31176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170226 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-170500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...ERN NEB....WRN IA....EXTREME NWRN MO...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170226Z - 170500Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED/EPISODIC AS BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTION WW 208 SWD INTO ERN WW 209 -- MOVES EWD ACROSS MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS WRN IA/SWRN MN AND PERHAPS EXTREME NWRN MO. ANOTHER WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY GIVEN PRESENT DOWNWARD REFLECTIVITY/IR CLOUD TOP TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED MOTION OF CONVECTION INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE POSSIBLE. 45-50 KT LLJ WILL CONTINUE IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER WITH MUCH OF THIS FLOW PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND...S-R FLOW IS WEAK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...TOP...ICT...DDC...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40369926 41329930 42799928 42979926 43469639 40909637 38749924 40399920 40919639 39169640 43519641 43919617 44479476 44129432 43049389 42009425 40469493 39459545 39189638 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 04:53:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 23:53:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170453.i4H4rYo03238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170451 KSZ000-170645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170451Z - 170645Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM PAWNEE/STAFFORD COUNTIES TOWARD ICT AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. FCST MCS FORWARD-PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE ESEWD MOTION 20-30 KT AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...INDICATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS. VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 45-55 KT SSWLY LLJ OVER THIS REGION...WHERE ETA SHORT-TERM PROGS INDICATE MESOSCALE MAXIMA IN BOTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850 MB LEVEL. THESE PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH E OF LONGITUDE OF ICT AFTER 06Z. ACTIVITY BEHIND INITIAL LINE WILL BE MOVING OVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS STABILIZED BY DIABATIC COOLING THEN BY OUTFLOW FROM INITIAL BAND...SO STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH LEADING ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH SUCCEEDING CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... 37489776 37599839 37889906 38009942 38119951 38329948 38409917 38409870 38349826 38189741 37999715 37799706 37639711 37499721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 15:24:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 10:24:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171524.i4HFOFo06081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171522 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171522 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...NORTHEAST IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171522Z - 171745Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WI/IL SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IND/WESTERN LOWER MI SHOW RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS /0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT/ FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH AN EVOLUTION TOWARD SMALL BOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 42238730 43428611 44478517 44508449 42998357 41298459 40318558 40168622 40188744 40418870 41328836 41758810 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 17:43:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 12:43:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171742.i4HHgto12959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171741 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHWEST IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171741Z - 172015Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA/WI. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN 1-3 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN WI INTO WESTERN IA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. CURRENT SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42649216 43519079 44438976 46048804 45518687 43318784 42618847 42188949 41819134 41899212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 18:11:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 13:11:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171810.i4HIAso01696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171809 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND...NRN KY...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171809Z - 172015Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH/KY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TCU/CBS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF IND/KY AND WESTERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IL...AND WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS/ SUGGESTING PRIMARILY MULTICELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS MAY MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 39338700 40818567 40958379 39378278 38438339 37788574 37508752 38508748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 18:44:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 13:44:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171844.i4HIiNo26052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171842 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-172045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171842Z - 172045Z ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA. ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8.0 C/KM IN 700-500MB LAYER/ AND ELEVATED MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY... SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9K FEET SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42109439 41499601 40649904 40559966 41650009 42459683 42919510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:08:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:08:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172008.i4HK8Jo20199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172005 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...NORTHWESTERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 172005Z - 172130Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI NEAR DETROIT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM KENT TO BAY COUNTIES. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN MID LEVEL ROTATION...AND ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MI FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD FROM WATCH INTO NORTHEAST LOWER MI. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI NORTH OF GRB MAY TRACK ACROSS THE LAKE AT 40 KNOTS AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MI BY 22Z. PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY REQUIRE A WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 45828452 45008308 43528259 41798339 41358487 41598639 42348610 43908517 44308631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:12:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172011.i4HKBuo22192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172008 KSZ000-NEZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/FAR SE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172008Z - 172245Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP/BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NE KS/FAR SE NEB INTO CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INVOF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CNTRL/NCNTRL KS NEWD INTO NE KS/FAR SE NEB...WHERE FRONT INTERCEPTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 60-65F SFC DEWPOINTS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONTINUALLY WEAKENING SFC BASED INHIBITION IN THIS CORRIDOR...COINCIDENT WITH AGITATED CU FIELD PER LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH TIME...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SWWD INTO INITIALLY GREATER CINH/NEAR TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SW KS. MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/LENGTH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37000118 37020153 37740167 38890150 39779938 40629764 41359613 38849552 37759738 37099921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:57:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172057.i4HKvlo21144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172052 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172052Z - 172245Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN MO...LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CBF TO N OF DSM TO NEAR ALO AT 20Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LITTLE SURFACE BASED CINH /BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z DVN SOUN ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 39099458 39469489 39829511 40379555 41389573 42069381 42519204 41469143 40209162 39479299 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 21:26:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 16:26:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172126.i4HLQCo08257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172122 KSZ000-COZ000-172315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172122Z - 172315Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ISOLATED CELL HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY LINE IN EASTERN CO. THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER RIDGE. THIS STORM MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER/STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FARTHER EAST. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE FOOTHILLS FROM WEST OF DEN TO COS...IN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL. AREA WITH GREATEST RISK OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF COLD FRONT FROM COS - LHX - LAA. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39610475 39240367 38860276 38580211 38000200 37300218 37680449 38250522 39320553 40250568 40290512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 21:48:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 16:48:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172148.i4HLmYo23306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172146 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-172315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI...NORTHWEST OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 172146Z - 172315Z CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE THUMB OF LOWER MI...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUD STREETS ACROSS NORTHERN IND AND WESTERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION...LACK OF UPPER FORCING...AND APPARENT LOW LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO NORTHERN IND WILL LIKELY LIMIT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WATCH AREA. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 210 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION AT 00 UTC. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41358475 42058491 43108471 44068466 44498384 44218301 43358242 42718253 41838339 41378372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 22:15:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 17:15:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172215.i4HMFJo10211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172214 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172214Z - 180015Z ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. TSTM DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE CONDITIONAL ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INVOF DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES CU/TCU ALONG NNE-SSW ORIENTED AXIS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. MODIFIED 20Z RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL CINH /BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WITHIN WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG AMIDST WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST AXIS. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KTS/ SUGGESTS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED/ LIMITED...HOWEVER CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 36870145 36980086 36930019 35770014 34330017 32700076 31610158 31770297 33020308 33930284 34840176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 22:51:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 17:51:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172251.i4HMpQo00874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172250 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OH...NWRN PA...UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... VALID 172250Z - 180015Z ...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA/UPSTATE NY. CURRENT THINKING IS WW WILL NOT BE EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LOOSELY ORGANIZED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...SWWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW INTO CENTRAL OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD INTO REGION CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING LESSENS SEVERE THREAT. WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40888223 42518018 43007857 41397926 40638053 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 23:46:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 18:46:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172345.i4HNjqo31784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172344 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-180045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172344Z - 180045Z ...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NERN IA/SWRN WI/NWRN IL. WITHIN THIS LARGE CANOPY OF CONVECTION...A MVC SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER CLAYTON COUNTY IA...MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...AND MOST LIKELY HAIL-PRODUCING ELEMENTS ARE LOCATED ON SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MCS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43329113 43718861 42898764 42218807 42259090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 01:01:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 20:01:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180100.i4I10ro04917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180059 KSZ000-OKZ000-180300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212... VALID 180059Z - 180300Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLD TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...REMAINS ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 212. ONGOING RUSSELL/LINCOLN/ELLSWORTH COUNTY SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE TORNADIC THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN MIDST OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/HELICITY INVOF FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE SWWD INVOF AND/OR SW OF DDC TOWARD COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT/SFC LOW PER NEGLIGIBLE ML PARCEL CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z DDC SOUNDING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE -- ESPECIALLY ENHANCED INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY -- WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40+ KTS/ THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 212 THROUGH 03Z...CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. PROGRESSIVELY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY -- NAMELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 212 -- MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36910190 38930191 39509678 37509681 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 01:22:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 20:22:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180122.i4I1MHo15552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180120 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213... VALID 180120Z - 180215Z LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS MAY YET DEVELOP FROM SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO BEFORE LIFTING NEWD INTO DEVELOPING MCS. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40299635 42079236 41449136 40229292 39399576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 04:39:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 23:39:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180438.i4I4cto19393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180437 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-180500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NWRN IND...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214... VALID 180437Z - 180500Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER LOWER MI... WELL DEFINED MVC...LOCATED OVER LAKE MI...CONTINUES ITS ENEWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 35 KT TOWARD OCEANA COUNTY MI. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY 500J/KG. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED MCS STRETCHES FROM THIS CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORT CENTER...SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE AT TIMES PULSED ALONG THE TRAILING LINE. BROAD WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO BACK SIDE OF THIS MCS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 43998642 44618436 44238337 43088391 40848911 40919066 42278831 43528641 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 04:50:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 23:50:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180449.i4I4njo23930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180448 NEZ000-KSZ000-180715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 180448Z - 180715Z LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN A NARROW E-W BAND ACROSS SRN NEB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE PARCELS HAVE ASCENDED ISENTROPICALLY TO SATURATION NEAR 800 MB. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF A 35 KT LLJ FROM WRN OK INTO KS. EXPECT ASCENT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SAME AXIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING ENEWD FROM CO TOWARD SW NEB/NW KS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES...AND REPEAT CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. ADDITIONALLY...MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM...AND 25-30 KT OF SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40349650 40259747 40189816 40089869 39919969 40110016 40479998 40659922 40729802 40739718 40659626 40329640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 05:42:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 00:42:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180542.i4I5gbo15409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180541 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180541 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-180745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180541Z - 180745Z PORTIONS OF NERN IL...NRN IND AND SRN MI ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL. IF DATA BEGIN TO SUGGEST TRENDS FOR INTENSIFICATION...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ORGANIZED MCS FROM PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IL. A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR...ONE MOVING EWD INTO WRN LOWER MI AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TIME OF DAY...BUT RUC PFC DATA SHOWS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. VWP DATA SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FROM 40 TO 50 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM. THESE KINEMATIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCVS WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS. IT ALSO APPEARS THE BOW ECHO MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ABOVE SWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NW OF CHICAGO. ..DIAL.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN... 41168919 42778511 42148342 40898823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 15:28:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 10:28:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181528.i4IFS2o30250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181526 ILZ000-MOZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181526Z - 181800Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND 18-19Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS INCREASING THEREAFTER. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION BECOMES FOCUSED BENEATH INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS WEAKENED AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL SHIFT ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS GENERATED FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE ADVANCING EASTWARD AT AROUND 30 KT. BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...BOUNDARY APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND EAST OF THE HANNIBAL/QUINCY AREA INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ST. LOUIS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO 80S. AS CAPPING SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS THIS AREA...FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES NEAR MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST...SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG COLD POOL/MESO HIGH. AS SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION STRENGTHENS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS LIKELY WILL INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39439218 39789134 40489052 41349003 41628886 41348796 40638758 39128844 38508971 38559128 38589254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:55:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:55:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181655.i4IGtWo02508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181654 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH WRN PA WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181654Z - 181800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE NOW IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER OH INTO WRN PA...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND SWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OH...AND NEAR LAKE BREEZE OVER FAR NWRN PA AND WRN NY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL OVER OH...BUT STRENGTHENS INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE ACROSS WRN NY AND PA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39508190 40508264 42637823 40307726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:57:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:57:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181656.i4IGuho03244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181655 OHZ000-INZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181655Z - 181900Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN IND INTO WRN OH. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND UNLESS MORE PRONOUNCED LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLOW OVER THIS AREA REMAINS IN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND EAST...WITH 20-25 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM LAF ENEWD TO NEAR GSH WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...LACK OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DESPITE LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED. ADDITIONALLY...20 KTS OF O-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH A LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 39738741 40248751 40668742 41278586 41268442 40558358 39578405 39338569 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:57:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:57:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181656.i4IGuxo03352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181654 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH WRN PA WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181654Z - 181800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE NOW IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER OH INTO WRN PA...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND SWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OH...AND NEAR LAKE BREEZE OVER FAR NWRN PA AND WRN NY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL OVER OH...BUT STRENGTHENS INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE ACROSS WRN NY AND PA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39508190 40508264 42637823 40307726  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181658.i4IGwRo04431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181655 OHZ000-INZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181655Z - 181900Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN IND INTO WRN OH. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND UNLESS MORE PRONOUNCED LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLOW OVER THIS AREA REMAINS IN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND EAST...WITH 20-25 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM LAF ENEWD TO NEAR GSH WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...LACK OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DESPITE LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED. ADDITIONALLY...20 KTS OF O-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH A LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 39738741 40248751 40668742 41278586 41268442 40558358 39578405 39338569  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 17:05:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 12:05:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181705.i4IH5Po09334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181704 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY INTO NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181704Z - 181800Z WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN NY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF LAKE BREEZES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON HEATING IS NOW SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES OVER THIS REGION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR OVER THIS REGION /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT/ ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING. AS STORMS INCREASE...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42357758 43697665 44967365 43497335 42037373 40877593 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 17:16:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 12:16:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181715.i4IHFso17673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181714 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-181915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...NRN/WRN MD...D.C AND FAR NERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181714Z - 181915Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN WV ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE 1-2 HRS OVER NWRN VA AND WRN/NRN MD. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RECENT VWP DATA FROM CHARLESTON WV HAS BEGUN TO AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WV. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION OVER NRN VA/WRN AND NRN MD WITH LATEST OBAN SUGGESTING AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE FROM SERN VA INTO NRN VA/WRN MD. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THIS AREA IT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE POSING A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER PA/OH...WITH 20-25 KTS OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KM. THUS OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX... 37567704 37737929 38367996 39157907 39577844 39387678 38367633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 18:45:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 13:45:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181844.i4IIido18010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181843 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN ID AND SWRN MT/NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181843Z - 182045Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ID MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY PROGRESS ENEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ID. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NERN ID AND SWRN MT/NWRN WY MAY INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21Z. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING TREND OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ID AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. MID LEVEL WIND SPEED MAX OVER ERN ID...WITH VWP DATA FROM POCOTELLO SUGGESTING AROUND 50 KTS AT 6 KM...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM NERN ID INTO NWRN WY/SWRN MT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THIS REGION IS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY /100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... 42801506 43561559 44101540 44531443 45241265 45671107 45550973 44670948 43581008 42861170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 18:56:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 13:56:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181855.i4IItwo25810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181854 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN PA NJ FAR SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181854Z - 182030Z WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IF ACTIVITY OVER WRN PA INCREASES OR STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN PA. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80F. THIS IS NOW SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR INTO ERN PA AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THOUGH CURRENT SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL /20-30 KT FROM SFC-6 KM/...APPEARS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY WARRANT WW THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39377914 41077906 41837351 39667415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 19:20:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 14:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181920.i4IJKIo10951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181917 NEZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-182115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN WY AND SCENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181917Z - 182115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM NCENTRAL INTO SERN WY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AFTER 21Z. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN WY/SERN MT...WHERE WAVE CLOUDS WERE NOTED. AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BIG HORN/WIND RIVER AND LARAMIE MTNS HAVE HAD SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING. THIS HAS LED TO MINIMAL CIN NOW OBSERVED ALONG WITH TOWERING CU SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS IMMINENT IN THESE AREAS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER WRN WY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...STORM ROTATION WILL LEAD TO GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER UNLESS MARGINAL INSTABILITY CAN IMPROVE THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 42650782 43520901 44350932 45360842 45320616 43450442 41620400 41370518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 19:24:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 14:24:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181923.i4IJNfo13579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181922 KSZ000-182115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181922Z - 182115Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. NEED FOR WW STILL APPEARS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. MID-LEVEL WARMING/HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN FURTHER HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING NORTH OF THE CHANUTE/EMPORIA AND HUTCHINSON AREAS...INTO VICINITY OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT...ROUGHLY NEAR/NORTH OF RUSSELL/MANHATTAN AND KANSAS CITY. WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. FORCING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD THE 19/00Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39369762 39589696 39629592 39169498 38729507 38379568 38479660 38509781 38559856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 19:40:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 14:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181940.i4IJeVo26898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181938 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215... VALID 181938Z - 182145Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 19Z SURFACE DATA NEAR/EAST OF SPRINGFIELD IL. ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NEAR CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL SHIFTING NORTH OF ST. LOUIS...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH 21-22Z. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAIN...AND NEW SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO THE DECATUR IL AREA. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39829003 40188934 40568778 39148750 38338908 38209059 39249036 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:04:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182004.i4IK43o11534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182002 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-182200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IN...OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216... VALID 182002Z - 182200Z CONTINUE WW. CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PERHAPS AIDED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SHIFTING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY..CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY EVOLVING NEAR FINDLAY OH SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...BETWEEN ZANESVILLE OH AND PITTSBURGH PA...NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS SMALL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH EVOLVES BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPSTREAM...CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 40688719 41018613 41008421 41018340 40748187 40318046 39788083 39388217 39728326 40088553 39888696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:44:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182044.i4IKifo09593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182038 NYZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK STATE...NRN PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 182038Z - 182245Z CONTINUE WW. SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW AROUND 1500 J/KG SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY AREA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED NORTH/EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS MAY SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT/ INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW NEAR/WEST OF THE UTICA AND ITHACA AREAS. ENHANCED BY 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43157597 43327510 43617442 43567381 42887349 42097394 42317540 42587669  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:47:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:47:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182047.i4IKlbo12319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182043 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-182215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN VT AND NH WRN MA NWRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182043Z - 182215Z AREA WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO HEATING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER ...CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AND STORMS TO THE WEST OVER NY HAVE YET TO STRENGTHEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND UNDER SSWLY LLJ LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED ERN EXTENT OF MODERATE SBCAPE AXIS TO SPREAD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG CELL IS NOW MOVING INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VT. HOWEVER... STORMS ACROSS NY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAILED TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. IN ADDITION...WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY FURTHER HINDER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CAPE/SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44367323 44377122 43367121 41977183 41907315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:29:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:29:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182129.i4ILTRo12445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182128 KSZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182128Z - 182330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ICT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR IF DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CIN WAS WEAKENING TO THE NW-NE OF ICT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARED TO BE MERGING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. ELSEWHERE CIN WAS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS EVIDENT BY WAVE CLOUDS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG PER THE 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION CAN OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37459619 37329768 37139868 37279881 37579890 37989829 38099751 38259643 38189530 38099525 37849515 37489551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:31:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:31:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182131.i4ILVFo13513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182129 TXZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182129Z - 182330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM THE CDS AREA SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. MARGINAL NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS NEAR 100/50 OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROMM 500-1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR FST. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL AND DIURNAL NATURE WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31440268 32220254 33620174 34620055 34680020 34460002 33950010 30980222 31070285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:31:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:31:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182131.i4ILVSo13664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182128 KSZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182128Z - 182330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ICT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR IF DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CIN WAS WEAKENING TO THE NW-NE OF ICT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARED TO BE MERGING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. ELSEWHERE CIN WAS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS EVIDENT BY WAVE CLOUDS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG PER THE 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION CAN OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37459619 37329768 37139868 37279881 37579890 37989829 38099751 38259643 38189530 38099525 37849515 37489551  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:33:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:33:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182132.i4ILWjo14427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182129 TXZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182129Z - 182330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM THE CDS AREA SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. MARGINAL NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS NEAR 100/50 OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROMM 500-1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR FST. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL AND DIURNAL NATURE WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31440268 32220254 33620174 34620055 34680020 34460002 33950010 30980222 31070285  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 22:26:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 17:26:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182225.i4IMPpo19854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182224 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-NHZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN PA...NY...SRN VT/NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 182224Z - 190030Z SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING OVERALL IN MOST OF WW...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN BAND FROM DELAWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES NY ENEWD OVER PORTIONS SRN VT AND SRN NH. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND WW 217 MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AS ANTICIPATED. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THERMAL AXIS FROM NRN NJ UP HUDSON VALLEY TO NEAR GFL...AND MOIST AXIS PARALLEL BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER E REACHING MAX OF 68 F SFC DEW POINT OVER SRN VT. RUC SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR THIS OPTIMAL OBSERVATION YIELDS APPROXIMATELY 1200 J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH 500-1000 APPEARS PREVALENT OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM AREA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER EWD MOISTURE RESULT IN LOWER THETAE IN STORM INFLOW LAYER. MEANWHILE...A FEW TSTMS MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF NY WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...GYX...BOX... 41087903 41527908 43097669 43617464 43797330 42057331 43747321 44237183 43727100 42907160 42187244 42037322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:10:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182310.i4INAOo16245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182309 INZ000-ILZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IL...INDIANA...OH...NRN WV...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215...216... VALID 182309Z - 190045Z SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT REDUCTION OF SBCAPE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF THESE WWS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE AND/OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 00Z. N-S BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND NRN KY...AND HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DISORGANIZATION TREND IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND LESS THAN 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL. POST-CONVECTIVE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL TO FORCE ASCENT...THEREFORE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FARTHER E ACROSS SRN OH/SRN INDIANA/NRN WV...AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER IS EVIDENT WITH 20 KT OR LESS FLOW IN 500-300 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 38318915 39418907 39979071 40099067 40848901 41158743 38648745 38878740 40148742 40248604 40388543 40528525 40748519 40988490 40988453 40098301 40208225 40528165 40708154 41058106 41097926 39317929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:16:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:16:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182316.i4INGXo19609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182315 COR INZ000-ILZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IL...INDIANA...OH...NRN WV...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215...216... VALID 182315Z - 190045Z CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT REDUCTION OF SBCAPE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF THESE WWS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE AND/OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 00Z. N-S BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND NRN KY...AND HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DISORGANIZATION TREND IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND LESS THAN 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL. POST-CONVECTIVE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL TO FORCE ASCENT...THEREFORE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FARTHER E ACROSS SRN OH/SRN INDIANA/NRN WV...AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EVIDENT WITH 20 KT OR LESS FLOW IN 500-300 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 38318915 39418907 39979071 40099067 40848901 41158743 38648745 38878740 40148742 40248604 40388543 40528525 40748519 40988490 40988453 40098301 40208225 40528165 40708154 41058106 41097926 39317929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:28:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:28:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182328.i4INSbo28820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182327 MOZ000-KSZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NWRN/WCENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182327Z - 190130Z THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 01Z. VIS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ORGANIZING ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE SW OF THE KC METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OLD MCS COLD POOL ACROSS NWRN MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RECENT HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THIS AREA ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALONG AND NORTH OF SHALLOW FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38129613 38299662 39169637 39969462 39909395 39469344 38709317 38289341 38089368 37939418 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:51:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:51:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182351.i4INp3o10051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182349 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-190215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE...NRN MD...NERN VA...DC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182349Z - 190215Z LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING AT 2330Z FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY PA SWD TO HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTS THAT ARE SUB-SEVERE -- BELOW 50 KT CRITERIA LEVEL -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF INTERMITTENT DAMAGE. WW NOT EXPECTED. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS NEAR PEAK ATTM. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE CURRENTLY...WITH APPROXIMATELY 500-700 J/KG DCAPE. EXPECT DCAPE TO WEAKEN AS SFC COOLING CONTINUES...HOWEVER LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS. CAPE ALSO SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY IN INFLOW LAYER...WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK -- I.E. LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...WITH GENERALLY UNIFORM SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 KT THROUGH 300-800 MB LAYER. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED EVENT. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39187887 40187647 40277558 40047468 39737448 39167476 38827572 38687747 38647858 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 02:19:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 21:19:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405190218.i4J2Iuo24506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190217 MOZ000-KSZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190217Z - 190415Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER PORTIONS NWRN MO...AND WILL SPREAD/SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MO BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR TBN WNWWD TO SRN-MOST FRINGES OF MKC METRO AREA -- THEN SWWD THROUGH EMP TO NEAR P28. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 6Z THEN BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NWD THEREAFTER. GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT WHERE PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC. REGION IS ON NERN EDGE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500-1700 J/KG OVER MKC AREA...DIMINISHING NEWD. 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES 13-14 DEG C DEW POINTS JUST UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB FLOW THAT SHOULD INCREASE TO 25-35 KT -- TO MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS REGION AS LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N OF SFC FRONT AND SPREAD ESEWD...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RUC PRECIP GUIDANCE FROM PAST 2-3 RUNS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 38209293 38689450 38659541 39329534 39819479 40169413 40229332 39759213 39029167 38379197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 06:54:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 01:54:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405190653.i4J6reo01411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190652 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-190945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 190652Z - 190945Z THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN/E CNTRL KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLESS STORMS CAN BECOME MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING...IN WHICH CASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MIGHT INCREASE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO WWD THROUGH S CNTRL KS. TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE E-W FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN EWD ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ON WRN EDGE OF THE MCS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES ARE TRYING TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE WOULD BE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM. ALSO SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP FARTHER S. ..DIAL.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39187887 40187647 40277558 40047468 39737448 39167476 38827572 38687747 38647858 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 07:03:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 02:03:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405190703.i4J73Co05957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190701 MOZ000-KSZ000-191000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 190701Z - 191000Z THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN/E CNTRL KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLESS STORMS CAN BECOME MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING...IN WHICH CASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MIGHT INCREASE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO WWD THROUGH S CNTRL KS. TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE E-W FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN EWD ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ON WRN EDGE OF THE MCS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES ARE TRYING TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE WOULD BE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM. ALSO SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP FARTHER S. ..DIAL.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 38409310 37919459 39389527 39559319 38869156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 16:28:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 11:28:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191627.i4JGRqo32245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191626 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...N CNTRL KY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 191626Z - 191830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NEAR WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOST PROMINENT ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE IN...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK/WEAKENING MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY/WESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING WEST OF THIS AXIS... ON NOSE OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE EVANSVILLE IND/ LOUISVILLE KY AREAS THROUGH THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DESPITE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW MOVING CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... 38158836 38588763 38528633 38188559 37908540 37208656 37068724 37478830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 16:40:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 11:40:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191640.i4JGeEo09307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191638 MOZ000-ARZ000-191845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 191638Z - 191845Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH-SOUTH BAND WEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ORIENTED ALONG 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT...THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON EASTERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WEAKENING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE LONG LIVED. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 37819424 38849398 38939314 38279219 36899225 36289281 36139381 36459412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 17:20:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 12:20:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191719.i4JHJeo06617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191718 NCZ000-VAZ000-191915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND FAR NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191718Z - 191915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA INTO SCENTRAL AND SERN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER THAN THE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN VA INTO FAR SWRN VA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORT MAX MOVING EWD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 17Z ANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SCENTRAL/SERN VA AND NCENTRAL/NERN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE SHEAR IS EVIDENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX...WITH RECENT REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATING AROUND 25 KTS OF 2-4 KM WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD INDICATES THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP WITH INCIPIENT LINE AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL VA/NCENTRAL NC AND MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL WAA CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THEN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 36097894 36548001 36907983 37237883 37057675 36877596 35997597 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 18:46:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 13:46:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191846.i4JIkWo05962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191845 NDZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191845Z - 192045Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL COOLING ABOVE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS RECEIVING AMPLE HEATING. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG... AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MINOT AREA NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48879775 47879817 47659994 47360157 47900251 48460190 48940142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 19:03:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 14:03:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191903.i4JJ3Vo18069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191901 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-192100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VA INTO FAR SRN MD/DELMARVA PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191901Z - 192100Z DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL VA INTO SRN MD AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL AID IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WELL DEFINED VORT OVER CENTRAL WV AND FAR NWRN VA HAS A 30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SPEED MAX OVERLAID OVER SWLY 15-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOUT 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SHORT LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37307619 37417905 38047937 38377886 38847833 38817676 38287496 37217532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 19:31:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 14:31:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191931.i4JJVBo05738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191929 TXZ000-NMZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL NM AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191929Z - 192200Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MTNS INTO THE LOWER PLAINS OF SERN NM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE THE THREAT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING JUST EAST OFF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDED UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LCLS AROUND 650 MB WOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS AND RECENT BACKING LOW LEVEL PROFILES OVER ERN/SERN NM INDICATE THAT ADVERTISED STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WAS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN SUPPORTING A FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO ECENTRAL NM AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31970555 33240580 34340544 34650425 34430287 33110249 32220316 31810413 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 19:39:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 14:39:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191939.i4JJd7o11659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191935 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-192130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191935Z - 192130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...NOW EAST NORTHEAST OF MINOT...IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION. TROUGH EXTENDS INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER/MID 80S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 60F JUST EAST OF TROUGH...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN EXCESS OF 80F NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE 19/20-20/00Z TIME FRAME...AXIS OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FROM JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS ND INTO AREAS EAST PIERRE SD. THIS SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE NEAR/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS BY 20/20Z. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 49029497 46829635 45239727 44459974 46019953 47229875 48049773 49029715 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 20:06:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 15:06:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192005.i4JK5co30070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192003 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW IA THROUGH E CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192003Z - 192200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA. THIS IS JUST NORTH OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NOW ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARMING ALOFT MAY BE INHIBITIVE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO PRECLUDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIKELY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REDWOOD FALLS VICINITY INTO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS SHORTLY. MODELS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IS INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42699651 43699638 44449575 45579529 46349444 46039322 45029348 43729406 43089463 42529510 42429564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 20:57:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 15:57:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192056.i4JKubS01481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192052 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO FAR NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192052Z - 192245Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO FAR NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION INDICATED THAT ONLY 25 J/KG OF MLCIN REMAINS ALONG THE PRIMARY DRYLINE FROM NEAR CVS NEWD TO NEAR GAG...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM MAY AID IN NWD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME THE REMAINING CIN THROUGH CONVERGENCE...OR IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2 DEG F...LARGE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEG F WILL ALLOW ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND 20-25 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34530319 35450239 36130117 36619983 36669948 36459936 35829957 35280019 34750108 34310251  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 22:22:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 17:22:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192221.i4JMLbH24035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192220 MNZ000-NDZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218... VALID 192220Z - 200015Z AN ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER TORNADIC CELL IN THE SERN PART OF WW 218. OTHER STORMS OVER WCNTRL ND...WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL ND. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS FAR NRN ND WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL ND AND WCNTRL SD. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS EAST OF THE FRONT WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN ND AND ECNTRL SD WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND AS THIS LIFT SHIFTS ESEWD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WW 218. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX IN PLACE ACROSS SW ND. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD DROP SOME BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 KT SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47509852 47520113 47550177 48010182 48790177 48960135 48849800 48589717 47779723 47499731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 23:10:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 18:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192310.i4JNAKH20990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192309 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL SD...SERN ND...NW MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 219... VALID 192309Z - 200045Z A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING IN NERN AND CNTRL SD. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER CELLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NRN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 219. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SHOULD REACH ABR AND PIR AROUND 0100Z. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED INITIATE CELLS ORIENTED IN A LINE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1600 TO 1800 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER NWRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET...LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SERN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 219. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11000 FEET. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45839970 47379864 47509833 47529733 47449612 47299595 45509717 43969816 43769854 43809960 43770061 44030064 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 00:14:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 19:14:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405200013.i4K0DvH24112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200012 MNZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN IA INTO SERN MN AND WCENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... VALID 200012Z - 200215Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OVER NCENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD...THIS STORM MAY BECOME MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT. ADDITIONALLY MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF WW 220. LONE SUPERCELL OVER KOSSUTH CO IN NCENTRAL IA AT 00Z WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD AROUND 20 KTS PER SLATER PROFILER DATA AND RECENT TRENDS. WITH THIS CONTINUED MOTION...THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NERN PART OF WW 220 SHORTLY AFTER 02Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THIS SUPERCELL APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS STRONG INHIBITION REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS TO THE WEST OF THE DSM AREA IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE SUPERCELL OVER NCENTRAL IA MAY BEGIN TO TAP SURFACE LAYER PARCELS THAT WOULD AID IN AN INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND TORNADO THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS 75/68 WOULD BE NECESSARY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS TO BE REALIZED BY THIS SUPERCELL OVER NCENTRAL IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT BY THE SLATER PROFILER WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WOULD AN SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41239514 44079497 44069272 43519280 41219306 44239345 44609369 44879311 44969252 44949149 44829096 44479068 44269067 43809140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 00:33:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 19:33:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405200033.i4K0X3H01097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200031 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...ERN ND...ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200031Z - 200230Z A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC CELLS IS MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR ERN ND INTO NW MN. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS NCNTRL MN. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG CELLS IS IN ERN SD. THIS CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO FAR SWRN MN THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A NEW WW WILL BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 218 AND 219 AND WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS NERN SD WITH A TONGUE OF 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO FAR NWRN MN. A STRONG GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN NRN MN AND THE CELLS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR ACROSS NRN MN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN SRN MN WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SWRN MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN MN AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP THE CONVECTION ORGANIZED INTO AN MCS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MSP SHOWS AN MLCAPE VALUE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 750 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44639366 44009437 43889595 44219762 46509755 48749741 48929578 48699416 48319346 45519349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 10:15:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 05:15:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201014.i4KAEfH09917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201011 MIZ000-201215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201011Z - 201215Z STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH LAKE MI MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SRN HALF OF LOWER MI NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL LAKE MI AT AROUND 45 KT. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION AND FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR ACCOMPANYING THE NRN BRANCH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STORMS ALONG ERN FLANKS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE AND ARE TRYING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS LOWER MI SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OF ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA...AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRR... 43018615 43718646 43688486 42688483 42298572 42318617 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 16:33:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 11:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201632.i4KGWre17149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201631 ILZ000-IAZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA...PARTS OF NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201631Z - 201900Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...BUT ONSET OF SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...IN ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK NOW PROGRESSING INTO CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF CAPE FOR MOIST MID-LEVEL PARCELS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOSER TO THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WILL WEAKEN CAP ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...PERHAPS AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING BELOW MID-LEVEL BASED CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE. ONCE THIS INITIATES...DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RAPID AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL YIELD MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42419434 42759178 42348998 40798988 40669145 40989454 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 18:11:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 13:11:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201811.i4KIBAe23957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201809 MTZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201809Z - 202015Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EARLY STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN MT TO THE SW OF SIDNEY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF HAVRE. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SWRN MT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA PRODUCE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES..LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT AGL AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... 47670950 48391069 48951055 48970428 47920428 47420479 47560757 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 18:32:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 13:32:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201831.i4KIVre06197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201829 NYZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEW YORK STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201829Z - 202030Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW. WHILE STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC...PRESSURE FALL AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKE ERIE AREA. IN FACT...A SMALL AREA OF RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WAS EVIDENT AN HOUR OR SO AGO ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF STRONGER FORCING...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG EAST OF BUFFALO INTO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BELOW SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW RISK OF A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF... 44357575 43497643 42987669 42547739 42447817 42477887 42657901 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 18:48:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 13:48:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201848.i4KIm6e17303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201846 NMZ000-COZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201846Z - 202015Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MTNS OF ERN NM....WITH SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN ROOTED IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING LIFT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEGINNINGS OF CU ALONG THE DRYLINE EAST OF CQC INDICATED THAT INHIBITION WAS WEAKENING EAST OF THE MTNS. ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF THE MTNS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE MTNS IN ERN NM...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S...THAT AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. THUS GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR PROFILE...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32900542 33840552 34970560 36220535 36750523 37000461 37040395 36810367 35390353 33770402 32870426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 20:47:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 15:47:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202046.i4KKkqe06650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202043 TXZ000-NMZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202043Z - 202215Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH WRN CHAVES COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A WW. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CIN/DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ESELY UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD AID IN SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 10-15 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TO GIVE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL HIGH TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SELY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING THIS EVENING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET INCREASING INHIBITION TO PERSIST A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30500416 31320481 31920506 33380523 33860472 33880372 33710342 32990306 31940298 30790308 30440329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 21:56:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 16:56:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202156.i4KLuBe16934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202154 IAZ000-MOZ000-202330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202154Z - 202330Z ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN IA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW FROM CNTRL WI THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO NE KS. A CAP IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP. AS A RESULT... SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 4500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LCLS BELOW 1200 METERS ACROSS SRN IA. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SCNTRL AND SWRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40939168 40729207 40539292 40419399 40379523 40779573 41269572 42079448 42199249 41999167 41389151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:04:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:04:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202204.i4KM4Pe22089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202202 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO FRONT RANGE/NERN CO...SERN WY AND THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202202Z - 210000Z ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WY FRONT RANGE. IF CONTINUED HEATING CAN OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW BY 00Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATE ROCKIES WAS INCREASING. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 45-53 DEG RANGE OVER THIS AREA...A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS LIMITED MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UP THROUGH 22Z. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2-3 DEG F...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ENSUE. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500-800 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-45 KTS/ ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38430494 39490551 40900551 42110549 42350479 42220392 41730324 40040297 38530364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:27:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:27:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202226.i4KMQie02009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202225 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NWRN PA AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202225Z - 210000Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NE OH AND FAR NW PA. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO LOWER MI RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR SRN LOWER MI SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM LAKE HURON EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN PA. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS SEWD ACROSS NW PA AND NE OH. THE DTX 20Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH 45 KT AT 500 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS CONVECTION FROM LAKE MI CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42468021 41617881 40897830 40227847 39897948 40028035 40348144 41008301 41558454 42408585 42988592 43668530 43748358 43398247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:36:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:36:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202236.i4KMa3e07611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202234 SDZ000-WYZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202234Z - 210030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL WY INTO NERN WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL WY AS A VORT MAX AIDING IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTERACTS WITH NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT 35 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATE FEED INTO CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO NERN WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS IT MOVES FARTHER ENEWD...LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLUX AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z...EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD LIMIT A PROLONGED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT INTO FAR WRN SD/SERN MT THROUGH THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 42190612 42510733 42770882 43350902 44320877 44620734 44910545 44900457 44180399 42560455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 23:55:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 18:55:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202354.i4KNsue18909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202353 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... VALID 202353Z - 210200Z CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROW SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY/DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN NM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/INFLOW INCREASES INTO THEM AND THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW NORTH OF WW 223 WILL NOT BE NEEDED. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 223...WHERE MLCAPES RANGED FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. INCREASING DIURNAL INHIBITION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 223 WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID TIME...UNLESS CONVECTIVE MERGERS CAN BEGIN AND CAN ORGANIZE A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL THAT WOULD SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 30930419 34550484 35880476 36830344 36990254 34480269 30910220 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 00:35:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 19:35:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210035.i4L0ZIe07297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210032 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... VALID 210032Z - 210200Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE CONSIDERED IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE...CONTINUING A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR CHICAGO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS NRN IL...SERN IA INTO NWRN MO. SHORT LINES OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING TOPS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND INTO FAR NRN IND LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVELS ARE WARM...THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX... 40719235 41459240 41719133 42708823 42738762 41818756 40978766 40868968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 02:28:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 21:28:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210227.i4L2Rce00753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210225 TXZ000-NMZ000-210330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... VALID 210225Z - 210330Z LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS ERN NM/W TX. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINING THEMSELVES IN AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...BUT AS THEY MOVE EWD THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ETA/RUC MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP EAST OF CURRENT STORMS...THUS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KS/NE LATER TONIGHT. STORMS ACROSS THIS WW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...AND THE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ..TAYLOR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 30860356 30970424 33370468 34480479 34500272 32470243 30950215 30930286 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 03:05:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 22:05:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210304.i4L34ee18388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210303 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...ERN NEB...NRN KS AND SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210303Z - 210430Z SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL KS EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH BACKED NELY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A CAPPING INVERSION IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE CAP. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CAP LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP THE CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...BASES SHOULD BE ELEVATED. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN KS INTO FAR SRN NEB WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ALSO...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY GAIN ACCESS TO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38669917 38480126 38580264 39380276 40750277 41010079 41459826 42119650 42009598 41129518 39759515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 06:13:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 01:13:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210613.i4L6Due09674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210611 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210611Z - 210645Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NEB INTO IA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR FROM THE SWRN NEB PANHANDLE EWD TO EAST CENTRAL NEB...WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG OR NORTH OF WW 227. STRONG 50 KT SLY LLJ OVER KS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD INTO THESE STORMS AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN WAA REGIME TO THE N OF E-W SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEB INTO SRN IA. INSTABILITY AND CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41370210 42540198 43500138 43849795 43849341 41759333 41509616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 06:40:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 01:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210641.i4L6fAe21596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210640 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-210745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-ERN OH/NWRN-WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210640Z - 210745Z WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN OH INTO NWRN-WRN PA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH EXTENDS FROM NRN IND/SERN LOWER MI INTO NRN OH PER IR IMAGERY/REGIONAL RADARS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS... CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...IS MOVING TO THE SE AT 25-30 KT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS NRN OH...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ONE OR TWO SMALL COLD POOLS OVER LE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN OH INTO WRN PA...AS NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS MOVING INLAND OFF THE LAKE. VAD WINDS SHOW 35-40 KT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OH...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND RESULT IN A SLOWER SE MOVEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAPE BEARING SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOMEWHAT SLOW ESEWD MOVEMENT OF MCS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ATTM. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE... 41758049 41147961 40507986 40298081 40228207 40588299 41348323 41488255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 07:23:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 02:23:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210723.i4L7NTe08790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210722 IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228... VALID 210722Z - 210745Z NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MN INTO NERN IA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED AND CONGEALED INTO TWO STORM COMPLEXES ACROSS WW 228 OVER NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA SINCE 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NE AT 30 KT AND WILL MOVE INTO SERN SD AND SWRN MN BY 09Z. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR INTO THIS ACTIVITY VIA OBSERVED 45-60 KT SSWLY LLJ...AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO SERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CAPE BEARING SHEAR AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41709353 41679658 41599842 41699918 43059916 43399708 44689636 44609266 43709125 41799084 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 08:47:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 03:47:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210848.i4L8m0e14393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210845 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-210945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN OH/WRN PA/NRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210845Z - 210945Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN OH AND WRN PA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AOA SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH 11-12Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS SERN OH/SWRN PA/NRN WV. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM VENANGO COUNTY PA SWWD TO FRANKLIN COUNTY OH WITH A SEWD MOVEMENT AT 25-30 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF COLD POOL STRUCTURE WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH VALUES IN THE COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH 40 KT OF WLY FLOW IS LOCATED 0.5-1 KM AGL...THIS WLY ORIENTATION TO A SEWD MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND SPEED THAT IS ABLE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SCENARIO GIVEN THAT AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVED ACROSS SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION POINTS...MEASURED GUSTS RANGED FROM 25-30 KT. THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SERN OH/SWRN PA AND NRN WV DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH MOST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39838325 40368241 41327994 41117912 40077886 39508079 39348251  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 09:35:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 04:35:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210936.i4L9aIe05616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210934 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0434 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...229...230... VALID 210934Z - 211030Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WI IN THE NEXT HOUR... AS THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL SPREADS/DEVELOPS ENEWD BY 11Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LOCATED FROM SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING TO THE ENE AND SLOW NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS SRN MN. SURFACE ANALYSES OVER THE LAST 1-3 HOURS SHOW A CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO EAST CENTRAL NEB NEAR OMA AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IA...WITH A SURFACE WAVE NEAR AURORA NEB OR 25 E GRI. 65 KT SWLY LLJ PER SERN NEB WIND PROFILERS/ VAD WINDS IS FOCUSING STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NRN IA/SRN MN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN/SWRN WI INTO THE EARLY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF LLJ...THEY DO SHOW THE LLJ WILL VEER TO WSWLY BY 12Z RESULTING IN AN EWD TRANSLATION OF MCS/S INTO WI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND CAPE BEARING SHEAR OF 40-55 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42189389 42279547 42689646 43479640 44349631 44599189 44648947 43648918 42548905 42189123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 11:23:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 06:23:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211124.i4LBOPe21652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211123 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-211230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...229...230... VALID 211123Z - 211230Z WW/S 228/229/230 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. WIND PROFILER/VAD DATA SHOW THE STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS CONTINUED TO VEER AND IS NOW ORIENTED WSWLY ACROSS CENTRAL IA/NWRN MO. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11Z SHOWED A LOW OVER ERN NEB...20 SW OLU...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THE LLJ WILL FOCUS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER...PER RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ACROSS FAR NERN IA AND SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND STRONG CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED IN FAYETTE COUNTY IA...AND SHOULD EXIT THE ERN PORTION OF WW 230 BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REST OF NRN IA INTO SRN MN...RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES. THUS...THESE WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42499114 42589376 43129652 43559652 44229638 44409597 44599200 43629114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 12:34:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 07:34:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211234.i4LCYue27920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211234 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-211400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MUCH OF MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211234Z - 211400Z FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT 35-40 KT ACROSS NRN VA AND WRN INTO CENTRAL MD THROUGH 14Z WITH MOST WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-40 KT...AND ISOLATED GUSTS AT OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PA SWWD ALONG THE FAR ERN WV PANHANDLE AT 1230Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG ACROSS NRN VA EWD TO DE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WITH MCS HAS OVERSPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE SQUALL LINE... INDICATING SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED. DESPITE SEWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT UP TO 40 KT...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PER VIS IMAGERY/AREA 12Z RAOBS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THIS WIND SPEED...AS THESE STORMS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38437930 39227829 39867751 39467632 38587675 37757744 37837887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 14:40:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 09:40:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211441.i4LEfGe10236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211440 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL/LWR MI/NRN IND/NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211440Z - 211645Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METRO AREAS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN/ DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA/ WISCONSIN. THUS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG/ SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST OF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN IS UNCERTAIN. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS DESTABILIZING WITH HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG ...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THIS LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL...AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CAPPING. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41678131 40828237 40638422 41078560 41178661 41058772 41238826 42258851 43148704 44698602 45718471 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 14:46:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 09:46:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211446.i4LEkUe13629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211444 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0944 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...WRN AND CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211444Z - 211715Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 15Z. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG WARM FRONT IN NWRN IA/SWRN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD AS AIR MASS FEEDING THESE ELEVATED STORMS DESTABILIZES FURTHER. AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BACKING AND STRENGTHENING 500 MB FLOW FROM FSD TO LSE. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 40-50 KTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS / MULTICELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED INITIALLY...AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME UNCAPPED WITH CONTINUED HEATING...THEREBY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...IF STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET CAN DEVELOP. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42559637 43609635 44299576 45029309 44729051 43958954 41789115 42279435 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 16:29:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 11:29:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211629.i4LGTre23911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211628 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-211830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTR/ERN VA...NE NC...SRN DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211628Z - 211830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND BELT OF MODERATE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT FORCING LIKELY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH EVOLVING COLD POOL. THUS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AS INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOWARD/ACROSS THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS BY AROUND 21Z. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35957566 35687662 36647840 36897948 37318057 37887951 38477811 38497682 38027590 37987533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 18:19:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 13:19:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211820.i4LIK0e16460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211819 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...234... VALID 211819Z - 212015Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO SHORTLY. SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD AT UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE DETROIT AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 19Z... AND AT ITS PRESENT RATE OF FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL PROGRESS NEAR/NORTH OF CLEVELAND BY 20-21Z. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT HOW SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER LAKE ERIE...BUT IF ONGOING CLUSTER WEAKENS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE BREEZE AND FRONTAL INTERSECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. OTHERWISE...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG TRAILING UPSTREAM OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES. LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT NEAR STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS...NEAR/NORTH OF FORT WAYNE INTO THE TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND AREAS. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX... 43017890 42487866 41677978 40418028 40438180 40878341 40938438 40848587 41028667 41508641 41798407 42358327 42708288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 18:59:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 13:59:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211900.i4LJ0Le19990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211859 IAZ000-WIZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA INTO CNTRL/SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231... VALID 211859Z - 212100Z WW MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA SHORTLY. WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW NOSING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS SUPPORTING EVOLUTION OF GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE LA CROSSE AREA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER...NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH HAS REMAINED GENERALLY STATIONARY FROM THE FORT DODGE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOLINE. BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF OUTFLOW REMAINS GENERALLY COOL STABLE...LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST OF MADISON NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER... RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE...NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONT...NEAR/EAST OF FORT DODGE. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WATERLOO/ MARSHALLTOWN AREA...WHERE HODOGRAPHS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...GRB...MKX... 43079358 43169262 43209167 42669101 41889212 42149364 42619414 43339103 43949002 44338926 44168831 43748789 43068835 42908914 42719074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 19:22:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 14:22:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211923.i4LJNQe02217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211922 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SERN MT...WRN SD...NE PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211922Z - 212115Z RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND A WW WILL BE LIKELY BEFORE 21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THEY INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH STRONG HEATING. 18Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL CAUSE FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES FOR PROLIFIC LARGE HAILERS. COLD DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS MODERATE ENEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 20-30 KTS WILL ALSO CAUSE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41070415 42060389 43430417 44050562 44240658 45110699 46300523 46110337 45490227 44430193 41030250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 20:35:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 15:35:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212035.i4LKZRe13875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212030 VAZ000-NCZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... VALID 212030Z - 212230Z CONTINUE WW. DOWNSLOPE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE INHIBITING FACTOR TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...IN MOIST VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. AS MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES EASTWARD OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ITS WAKE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT NEW INTENSE CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER NEAR LYNCHBURG. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT BACKS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS VIRGINIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS WILL BE A RISK ALONG DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOL. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RNK... 35937581 36007675 36717725 36757819 36797894 37347876 37727815 37877728 37917658 37807605 37457565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 21:33:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 16:33:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212133.i4LLXke15845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212131 MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SWRN PA...WRN MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212131Z - 212300Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WAS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THIS REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A SQUALL-LINE...AT THE NORTH END OF THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM...IS FEEDING OFF THIS HIGH INSTABILITY AND IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD AT 45 KT. THE LINE SHOULD TAKE A MORE SELY TRACK ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW 235 AND 239 AND INTO WV...FAR NRN VA AND WRN MD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A REAR INFLOW JET PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LINE...WILL HELP KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED TROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39887798 39328046 38828204 38158212 37438110 38127801 38717728 39547723 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 21:58:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 16:58:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212158.i4LLwTe29434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212157 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD...CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212157Z - 212330Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF EXISTING WW 238. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS GOING E OF CURRENT WW. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 41010144 43050159 45960187 45939964 44379924 41969964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 22:36:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 17:36:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212236.i4LMaqe18335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212235 IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL AND ERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212235Z - 220030Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NW OF HLC...EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE CIN WITHIN THIS ZONE AND ALONG DRYLINE...AND FORECASTS PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND STRONG WIND PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORCING PROVE ENOUGH TO ESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS MUCH HIGHER. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 39009910 39099992 39380044 39900043 41079974 42359855 42579675 41959617 39559786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 22:54:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 17:54:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212254.i4LMsce27644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212253 PAZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235... VALID 212253Z - 220030Z AN INTENSE SQUALL-LINE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS WRN PA. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD FROM MD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THIS AXIS AND THE INSTABILITY WILL FUEL THE SQUALL-LINE AS IT MOVES ESEWD. IN ADDITION...A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET IS PRESENT JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND A FAST ESEWD MOVEMENT OF 45 KT WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40348014 41067974 41877969 41957771 41787533 40837519 39907537 39837668 39787996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 23:34:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 18:34:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212334.i4LNYie15357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212333 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212333Z - 220030Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED E OF THE DRYLINE IN NEBRASKA AND ALONG WARM FRONT IN SERN SD. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. STRONG INSTABILITY IN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WITH SMALL CIN FURTHER SUGGESTS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40049705 40039955 42409985 43339952 44239889 44279740 43869624 43409580 41659613 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 00:38:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 19:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220039.i4M0d4e13254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220037 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236...242... VALID 220037Z - 220200Z SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM NRN IA ACROSS NRN IL. IN ADDITION...NEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE LINE ACROSS NCNTRL IA AND NWRN IL. AS THE STORMS TRACK NEWD...THEY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO WSW ACROSS NCNTRL IA AD NRN IL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WHICH WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A MID-LEVEL JET EXISTS ACROSS SRN MN AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO JETS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS ACROSS IA AND NRN IL AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS DECREASING AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESSEN SOME BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41529543 42499608 43189597 43049285 42769051 42178775 41098736 40628765 41179131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 01:34:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 20:34:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220135.i4M1ZGe06672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220134 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-220300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...VA AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220134Z - 220300Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD AND SHOULD AFFECT VA AND SRN WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THE LINE COULD CONTINUE SWD INTO VA LATE THIS EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM IAD SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT AND THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC CONCERNING STORM ORGANIZATION. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THIS WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX... 37838139 38397929 38467765 37507712 36417744 36118076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 01:41:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 20:41:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220141.i4M1fje09625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220140 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240... VALID 220140Z - 220315Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL PERSIST WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE WW 240. LATEST MESOANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 00Z DDC/AMA SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OWING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH TIME...LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING/SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DIMINISHING TREND OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 240...WITH EXPANSION/REISSUANCE OF WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 34820214 38220027 39529978 39509864 34810013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 03:02:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 22:02:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220303.i4M334e14908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220301 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/CNTRL AND ERN NEB/NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243... VALID 220301Z - 220430Z THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS REMAINS ACROSS WW 243...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN HALF OF TORNADO WW. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WW 243 OWING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS/FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. WW 243 CONTINUES. ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS NE/NCNTRL NEB INTO FAR SE SD HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL. CONTINUATION OF TORNADIC THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NCNTRL/NE NEB AND FAR SE SD THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH LENGTH/CURVATURE IS MAXIMIZED IN MIDST OF RELATIVELY LOW LCLS/LFCS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS...HIGHER LCLS/LFCS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LESSER TORNADIC THREAT WITH HIGHER BASED SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD... 39259974 43909935 43909673 39259730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 05:26:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 00:26:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220526.i4M5Qpe13134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220525 SDZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-220730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/FAR SE SD/WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243...244... VALID 220525Z - 220730Z TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF WW 243 AND WW 244...WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL. REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY FOR ERN NEB/WRN IA BY 06Z. DEVELOPING SW LOW LEVEL JET -- 50+ KT ALREADY EVIDENT IN FAIRBURY NEB/LATHROP MO PROFILERS -- WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS/TRAINING ECHOES FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME INTO LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER. PRIMARY SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- AND POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO -- WILL REMAIN FROM EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN IA INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...DMX... 40319720 40319921 41079917 41959916 42099870 41999830 42789760 43609747 43949672 42699685 42939385 41659386 41399685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 06:26:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 01:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220626.i4M6QXe07692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220625 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-220830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN OH/WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 220625Z - 220830Z ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN OH/LAKE ERIE INTO WRN PA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED HAIL. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE HURON AND TRAILING SWWD TO NERN IL AT 05Z. 45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WIND ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL/IND INTO CENTRAL OH...IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. AREA VAD WIND DATA/RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED A 30 KT SWLY LLJ IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN IND TO NRN OH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT...AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLUX FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...VEERING LLJ TO NEARLY PARALLEL TO LINE OF STORMS WILL FAVOR BACKBUILDING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OVER CENTRAL/ERN OH AND TRAINING OF STORMS INTO ERN OH/WRN PA FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41498289 42028082 41767926 40827885 39877935 39788082 39788264 40438390 41158397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 06:48:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 01:48:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220649.i4M6nSe16603@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220648 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-220745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI/FAR NRN IND AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220648Z - 220745Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 08Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI/FAR NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...IF A COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NRN IL/SRN WI/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/03Z RUC DATA INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SRN LOWER MID/NRN IND AND NRN/WRN OH...WHILE A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL VEER TO WLY BY 12Z SUPPORTING AN EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS IN THE FORMS OF LINES OR ONE BOW ECHO. 06 RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A COLD POOL IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ATTM ACROSS FAR NRN IL/SERN WI...WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NERN IL INTO SWRN LAKE MI AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 35 KT. IF THE COLD POOL BECOMES STRONGER...DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SWLY 35 KT LLJ WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS ACTIVITY TRACKS ESEWD ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED E-W OVER SRN LOWER MI. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42688618 42538293 41778222 41038265 40898364 41198584 41488704 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 07:42:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 02:42:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220742.i4M7gZe06988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220741 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-220915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IA/SWRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245... VALID 220741Z - 220915Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 245 ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN IA INTO SWRN WI/NRN IL. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA /TO THE S OF ALO/...ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL FROM 30 NE MLI TO 45 S CGX. WV IMAGERY/BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER SWRN WI PER AREA VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED A SHORT WAVE AND/OR MCV WITH THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA INTO WRN/SWRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO LINES OF STORMS...ONE OVER NERN IA AND THE SECOND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL IA IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 246. AS THE MCV MOVES EWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...55 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COLD POOLS IN THE WAKE OF LINES OF STORMS IN IA WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THESE LINES MOVE ESEWD AT 35-40KT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF WW 245. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER 50+ KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN INFLUX OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER LLJ FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WAA REGIME. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43019115 42418745 40648748 41409475 42329335 42579207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 08:46:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 03:46:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220847.i4M8lTe01175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220844 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-220945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... VALID 220844Z - 220945Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW. MESO-ANALYSES THROUGH 08Z SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IA WNWWD TO NERN NEB. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL IA HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 45 SSW ALO TO 45 SE OMA AND WWD TO NEAR HSI TO 25 SW EAR. WIND PROFILER DATA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWED THE NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS VEERED TO SWLY AS IT NOSES INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA. THIS ORIENTATION IS FOCUSING STRONGEST ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR ERN NEB INTO IA. THUS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN PORTION OF WW 246. MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 35-40 KT OF CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH EWD MOVING LINE/BOW SEGMENT ACROSS FAR ERN NEB ATTM MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATOP SHALLOW STABLE LAYER TO THE NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LLJ NOSING INTO WRN IA WILL SUPPORT FAST MOTION OF TSTM LINES AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD INTO CENTRAL IA. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 41529919 41399698 41979629 42079392 41029392 40639519 40329732 40139917  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 11:59:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 06:59:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405221159.i4MBxUe14530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221158 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/PORTIONS NRN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221158Z - 221300Z ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS SERN IA/PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO WRN IL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. 11Z MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS/S...EXTENDING FROM NRN IL WSWWD ACROSS FAR SRN IA TO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS DATA INDICATED THE SWLY 50 KT LLJ EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NRN MO...WITH RESULTANT STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN IA...WHERE RADARS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND APPEARANCE OF THESE STORMS/NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY PER VIS IMAGERY...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED. WAA AND INFLUX OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN MO/SERN IA INTO WRN IL THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE THE LLJ WEAKENS BY 15Z. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39939433 41159352 41208983 40998914 40038931 39689031 39729349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 16:04:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 11:04:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405221604.i4MG4fe15356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221603 INZ000-ILZ000-221700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL...NWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221603Z - 221700Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL AND IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.. REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT INTO WRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY DID NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY...AND AS OF THE LAST HOUR THE LEADING EDGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS IL INTO IND IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BENEATH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF REJUVENATING MCS. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 39989040 41538917 41688591 40718619 40278780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDse12636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221936 OHZ000-INZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN MI...WRN/NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... VALID 221936Z - 222030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z FOR MUCH OF NRN OH... THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A POSSIBLE EARLY MCS STRUCTURE...ARCING FROM NRN INTO WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IND INTO NWRN OH BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40828672 41588488 41648096 40228131 39758622  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDse12635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221726 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NRN PA...UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221726Z - 221900Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOON EVOLVE OFF THE LAKE BREEZE FROM NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... RAPID HEATING ALONG LAKE BREEZE HAS INITIATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE BENEATH WSWLY LLJ. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION/SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41708114 42577862 42127719 41137797 41048091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221936 OHZ000-INZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN MI...WRN/NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... VALID 221936Z - 222030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z FOR MUCH OF NRN OH... THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A POSSIBLE EARLY MCS STRUCTURE...ARCING FROM NRN INTO WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IND INTO NWRN OH BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40828672 41588488 41648096 40228131 39758622 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221809 MIZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221809Z - 221915Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF LOWER MI... DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...PER RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER MONTCALM COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42958619 43808506 43828266 42358278 42068368 42078625  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221809 MIZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221809Z - 221915Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF LOWER MI... DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...PER RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER MONTCALM COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42958619 43808506 43828266 42358278 42068368 42078625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222014.i4MKE0e12762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221726 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NRN PA...UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221726Z - 221900Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOON EVOLVE OFF THE LAKE BREEZE FROM NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... RAPID HEATING ALONG LAKE BREEZE HAS INITIATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE BENEATH WSWLY LLJ. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION/SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41708114 42577862 42127719 41137797 41048091  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221813 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEBRASKA...EXTREME NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221813Z - 222015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL FORM BY 20Z OVER NERN CO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD INTO EXTREME NWRN KS. WW WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING TREND IN TCU / CB DEVELOPMENT OVER CO AND WY INTO WRN NEB...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/LIFT MOVE NEWD OVER CO. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF 50 + DEWPOINTS EXTENDS INTO NERN CO. A CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITHIN MOIST AXIS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL BE HIGHEST AND SURFACE WINDS BACKED. HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE THREAT OF EXTREMELY DAMAGING HAIL STORMS BY THE TIME STORMS ENTER SWRN NEBRASKA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489 40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:14:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:14:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222015.i4MKF8e13851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222002 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222002Z - 222100Z ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM SRN NEB INTO SRN IA. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z... RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE AN AXIS OF 3000-4000 J/KG SBCAPE CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWWD ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AHEAD OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A RAPID INCREASE IN LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON E-W BOUNDARY ALONG THE KS/NEB...IA/MO BORDERS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40989897 41799567 41689178 40489165 40159552 39969896  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:14:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222015.i4MKF8e13824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222004 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248... VALID 222004Z - 222130Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SERN MI. MODIFIED VWP OUT OF DTX SHOWS 25-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...WITH 18Z RAOB INDICATING STRONG INSTABILITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BROKEN LINE WILL THUS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489 40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:14:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:14:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222015.i4MKF9e13899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222004 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248... VALID 222004Z - 222130Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SERN MI. MODIFIED VWP OUT OF DTX SHOWS 25-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...WITH 18Z RAOB INDICATING STRONG INSTABILITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BROKEN LINE WILL THUS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489 40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:56:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:56:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222056.i4MKupe01904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222052 KSZ000-OKZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222052Z - 222215Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD TO NW OF GAG. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTIVE TEMPS EASILY REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE AND INITIATION IS JUST A QUESTION OF MASS FIELDS AND UVVS. AREA PROFILERS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET BACKING AND THIS WILL RE-FOCUS DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE. GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING...INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. IF SUPERCELLS CAN FORM AND MOVE EWD INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT / LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT...ALONG AND E OF I-35...STRONG TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 36759810 36509931 36500023 37229993 38579932 39689954 39629830 39459712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 21:25:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 16:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222126.i4MLQEe15635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222123 NYZ000-PAZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA AND WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222123Z - 222300Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCRG DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN PA/NY AND TCU ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE FRONT ACROSS ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES OF WRN NY. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING LOWER MI WILL AID RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 50KT WLY FLOW AT 500MB COUPLED WITH 30-40KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL...WIND AND TORNADO HAZARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41707764 41128012 42247974 43207715 43387583 41717564  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 22:29:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 17:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222230.i4MMUCe14812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222229 PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250... VALID 222229Z - 230000Z LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN WW 250 ACROSS OH. THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 250 FROM NWRN IND ATTM. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF OH REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OH WHERE LATEST RUC SOUNDING ADJUSTED WITH SURFACE DATA PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 1800-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND STRONGEST MASS TRANSPORT AND ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH WHERE FRONTAL WAVE WAS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY STILL INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AS BAND OF RESIDUAL LIFT SPREADS SEWD FROM IND/MI CONVECTIVE LINE... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 41938383 41938042 40098197 40058536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 22:53:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 17:53:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222253.i4MMrle25842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222252 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222252Z - 230045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE. INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR TORNADOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LEAST. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41009163 40799512 42829582 42899363 42749194 42458958 41988821 40958819 40938910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 00:12:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 19:12:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230013.i4N0DNe28014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230011 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN / SERN NEB...WRN IA..EXTREME NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 251... VALID 230011Z - 230145Z VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION CONTINUES WITHIN WW ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE, FROM NEAR FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES NEWD TOWARDS OMAHA AND INTO WRN IA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT...CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB...WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...WITH STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN IA THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40099889 41299809 41929631 42029444 41999347 40709339 40149648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 03:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 22:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230310.i4N3Ane04246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230309 NEZ000-KSZ000-230415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 253... VALID 230309Z - 230415Z STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING NWRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 253 AND WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NERN KS TONIGHT. PRESENT MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SURGE IS FROM 290 AT 35KT AND THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN MO BY 0600Z. MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE LINE WOULD SUGGEST PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT BUT A NARROW AXIS OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN KS COULD STILL SUPPORT TORNADIC STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38349680 38329895 40129852 40159628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 04:05:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 23:05:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230406.i4N46Le24214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230405 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230404 NYZ000-PAZ000-230500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN NY AND NCNTRL PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 255... VALID 230404Z - 230500Z STRONG LARGE SCALE BOW ECHO COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY AT CLOSE TO 50KT. NRN SEGMENT OF THE BOW...MOVING INTO MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE QUITE STRONG BUT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. LINEAR ARC OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE PASSES. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED ON SRM DATA FROM BGM...AHEAD OF THE LINE MOVING FROM MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES INTO OTSEGO COUNTY. BGM VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42587790 43477481 42037481 41127789 42587787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 04:34:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 23:34:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230434.i4N4Yke02141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230433 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/SRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230433Z - 230600Z ...DANGEROUS BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS SRN IA... INTENSE BOX ECHO COMPLEX MOVING AT 50-60KT AND PRODUCING WINDS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 80KT CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN IA. APEX OF THE BOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER INTENSE INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS IT ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM MADISON COUNTY. DAMAGING TO EXTREME WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN WARREN/MARION COUNTIES EAST TO JASPER AND POWESHIEK COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER BOWING LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM OTOE AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EXTREME SERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING EAST AT 50KT AND WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40239784 42759108 41039106 38439797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 05:25:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 00:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230525.i4N5Pue23163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230524 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-230630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230524Z - 230630Z WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN WI AND NRN IL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS NRN IL INTO SWRN WI ATTM...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORT HAIL AS THE INITIAL THREAT. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS THE 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN IA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF DAMAGING SRN IA BOW ECHO INTO THIS AREA AFTER 0730Z. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43199113 43088751 40438747 40409142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 06:21:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 01:21:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230621.i4N6Lwe10896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230621 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NRN MO/WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230621Z - 230645Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING BOW ECHO ACROSS ERN IA CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 45-50 KT... AND WILL MOVE INTO WW 257 JUST AFTER 07Z. 50+ KT SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO WSWLY BY 12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD WRN IA. AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG... WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. LINE OF STORMS OVER NWRN MO/SOUTH CENTRAL IA IS MOVING EWD AT CLOSE TO 45 KT...WHILE STORMS CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THIS LINE ACROSS NWRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER BOW ECHO...RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW IN THE NEXT HOUR. ACTIVITY FARTHER SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS NRN MO/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL IL. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40409236 40278929 39329012 38759059 38819253 38599519 38369802 40029622 40439489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:21:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:21:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230722.i4N7MKe02630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230721 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO/SRN-ERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230721Z - 230815Z WW 256 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. SEVERE BOW ECHOES...ONE ACROSS ERN IA AND THE SECOND OVER NRN MO/SRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AT 45-50 KT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THESE BOWS WILL EXIT WW 256 BY/JUST AFTER 07Z...THUS ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN-NRN MO AS TRAILING EDGE OF BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO/SOUTH CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO BECOME ORIENTED E-W...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN KS ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA AND 5-10 KT W-E ORIENTED CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41049100 39979239 38969671 40099575 40389365 41349299 41659192 42519184 42689106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:52:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:52:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230752.i4N7qse14198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230751 COR ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO/SRN-ERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230751Z - 230815Z CORRECTED FOR WW EXPIRATION AND TIME OF THREATS IN DISCUSSION WW 256 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. SEVERE BOW ECHOES...ONE ACROSS ERN IA AND THE SECOND OVER NRN MO/SRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AT 45-50 KT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THESE BOWS WILL EXIT SRN PORTION OF WW 256 BY 08Z AND THE ERN PORTION BY 09Z...THUS ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN-NRN MO AS TRAILING EDGE OF BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO/SOUTH CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO BECOME ORIENTED E-W...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN KS ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA AND 5-10 KT W-E ORIENTED CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41049100 39979239 38969671 40099575 40389365 41349299 41659192 42519184 42689106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 09:32:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 04:32:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230932.i4N9Wae30013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230930 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-231030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/CENTRAL-NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257...258... VALID 230930Z - 231030Z BOW ECHO STRUCTURES/LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED FROM SRN WI SWD ACROSS NRN-CENTRAL IL INTO NERN MO THROUGH 11Z. PRIMARILY ELEVATED HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREATS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN MO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE TWO EARLIER BOW ECHOES HAVE EVOLVED INTO BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SRN WI SSWWD ACROSS FAR ERN IA TO NERN MO AT 09Z. THE NRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IA AND NWD IS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 45 KT... WHILE THE REST OF THE STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 35-40 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN-CENTRAL IL HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING AN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /FROM THE BOW ECHO NOW MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL/NERN MO/ HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS NRN MO AND EXTENDS FROM COOPER TO PLATTE COUNTIES OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF MO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WAA THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD AS 60 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...EAX... 39569473 40229333 40249191 40599159 41969093 42329088 42989010 42998747 40578748 39559069 39099205 38489442  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 14:45:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 09:45:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231446.i4NEkJe23221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231445 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-231645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN/CENTRAL IN...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231445Z - 231645Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN IL. THIS IS OCCURRING S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THROUGH THE SRN THIRD OF LOWER MI. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. PLENTY OF HEATING HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BETWEEN 18-21Z...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IT WILL BE SOONER ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 60 KT AND 70 KT RESPECTIVELY MOVES INTO AREA. THUS...THREAT MAY BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...BUT INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 39798752 40438752 41108753 41408749 41748698 42248632 42588496 42498360 42168290 41738339 41358344 40688357 40288425 40138481 39968588 39878691 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 16:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 11:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231628.i4NGSXe00435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231627 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA / WRN NC /NWRN SC / NERN GA / ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231627Z - 231900Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THUS PULSE WILL BE DOMINATE CONVECTIVE MODE. DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34468355 34818415 35458389 36498251 37658071 37727958 37507883 35687986 34168275 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:26:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:26:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231726.i4NHQne25985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231725 ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO NERN MO...WRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231725Z - 231900Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-20Z FROM NERN MO / ERN IA / WRN IL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY SOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO. THIS AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 - 2500 J/KG. CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED INSOLATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT A CONTINUATION OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SW...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP IS BREACHED. ALTHOUGH LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM IS PRESENT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT...WHETHER IN A BROKEN LINE OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT FORECAST LI VALUES OF -10 TO -12 WILL ALOW FOR VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL ACCELERATION WITHIN SUPERCELLS. SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND E OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE 1 KM SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED FROM 200-300 M2/S2. THIS AREA...FROM NERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ANYWHERE STORMS FORM. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...EAX... 38738995 38059152 37549350 38089404 38599358 39209291 40159220 41279172 42559145 42909046 42858890 41378893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:36:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:36:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231736.i4NHaae30625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231735 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IN...NWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 231735Z - 231930Z WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LWR MI AND NWRN IN. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT AS SOME OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM EARLIER IL MCS MOVED OVER AREA...SOME CAPPING SET IN AT MID LEVELS. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUED JUST W OF THE DET AREA...AND ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES MOVING INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF IN. IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...REMAINS ISOLATED...THIS WATCH MAY BE REPLACED BY AN ADDITIONAL WW AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER SW ACROSS NERN MO INTO IL. BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN IN INTO SRN LOWER MI. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 40078681 41218685 41938644 42768608 43558345 42938236 41338241 40668467 40248605 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:45:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:45:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231746.i4NHkJe02776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231745 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IN...EXTREME NWRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260... VALID 231745Z - 231945Z CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD OVER SERN IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE IS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS 35-40 KT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOW ECHO OR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38528923 39168924 39578867 39878663 39758534 38338547 37808642 37438904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 19:28:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 14:28:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231928.i4NJSoe19170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231927 PAZ000-NYZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231927Z - 232130Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ACTIVITY IS JUST S OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LWR MI EWD ACROSS WRN NY STATE JUST S OF LAKE ONTARIO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS NERN OH WHICH IS INDICATING MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 41957973 42247967 42657911 43077849 43087764 42877707 42397712 42037722 41777840 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 19:56:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 14:56:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231956.i4NJuse31577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231953 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN...NWRN OH...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 231953Z - 232100Z TORNADO WATCH IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR. CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL IN TOWARDS AIR THAT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70F WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR/AROUND 80F... GIVING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE 2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS NRN IN INTO SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY. DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2 IN SRN LOWER MI AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT. THUS... ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39848821 40748808 41688728 42368615 42838447 42518255 41818301 41048370 40208575 40048783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 20:13:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 15:13:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232014.i4NKE4e08328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232009 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232009Z - 232215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED OVER SERN MT. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS PRESENCE OF SMALL SCALE LOW WITH CU MOVING IN A CYCLONIC PATTERN. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F. STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT JUST E OF BILLINGS. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. A CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE LARGE HAIL TO FORM. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH STRONG MID LEVEL WESTERLIES. LOCALLY LOW LCLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD / DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER SERN MT AND NWRN SD. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 43530270 43600334 43890432 44490543 44410671 45010706 45480711 46480728 46340544 45010202 44160175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:00:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232201.i4NM1Qe28041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232200 ILZ000-MOZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 261... VALID 232200Z - 240000Z ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 261. MASS FIELDS ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL AT THE MOMENT AS LOW TO THE NORTH FILLS WITH TIME AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE DIURNAL FALL TIME OF DAY. NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD INTO IL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS OVER W-CENTRAL IL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED MORE AND PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING. AREA VWPS STILL EXHIBIT 150-250 0-1 KM SRH...MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL IL WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CAPE. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 41019064 41178861 40348852 39348880 38508935 37939022 37599078 37889256 38419276 39189176 40459108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:08:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:08:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232208.i4NM8ce31177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232206 COR ILZ000-MOZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 261... VALID 232206Z - 240000Z CORRECTED FOR GREATEST THREAT AREAL DESCRIPTION ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 261. MASS FIELDS ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL AT THE MOMENT AS LOW TO THE NORTH FILLS WITH TIME AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE DIURNAL FALL TIME OF DAY. NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD INTO IL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS OVER W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED MORE AND PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING. AREA VWPS STILL EXHIBIT 150-250 0-1 KM SRH...MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL IL WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CAPE. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 41019064 41178861 40348852 39348880 38508935 37939022 37599078 37889256 38419276 39189176 40459108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:11:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:11:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232212.i4NMCRe00514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232210 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND NRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262... VALID 232210Z - 232345Z TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 262 ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SRH AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER SRN WI SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THIS AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41129107 41819087 42819116 43539145 43568735 41078784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:45:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:45:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232246.i4NMk2e16531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232245 NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...NERN PA...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263... VALID 232245Z - 240015Z A NUMBER OF SPLITTING CELLS OVER PARTS OF NRN CT LAST HOUR AS CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVE ACROSS MARINE/BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS ERN CT/SCNTRL MA. AIRMASS FROM SRN TIER NY...ACROSS NERN PA...AND INTO SERN NY REMAINS UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...AND INVOF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS NERN PA. CELLS CROSSING THE MARINE/BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW LEADING TO SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41137774 42067848 42757785 41977287 40377297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 23:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 18:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232331.i4NNVke04432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232330 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...ERN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264... VALID 232330Z - 240130Z COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REVEALS PRIMARY SURFACE CYLONE WAS SITAUTED ACROSS SRN WI WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES EXIST ALONG STRONGLY CURVED AND SEGMENTED WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE MI...ACROSS SCNTRL MI...TO THE ST. CLAIR RIVER/WRN LAKE ERIE. TSTM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI APPEARS LINKED TO FRONTAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE THUMB AREA. A FEW SUPERCELLS STORMS HAVE BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH THIS IMPLULSE. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE STABILIZED THE AIRMASSS OVER SRN LOWER MI BUT SLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD FO THE MAIN LOW WERE RESULTING IN AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM NERN IL ACROSS NRN IND. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS HAVE ERUPTED OFF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVED OVER CNTRL LAKE MI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI...NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 41958811 43378263 41508264 40038813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 23:33:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 18:33:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232333.i4NNXue05243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232332 COR OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...ERN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264... VALID 232332Z - 240130Z CORRECTED FOR SPELLING COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REVEALS PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WAS SITUATED ACROSS SRN WI WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES EXIST ALONG STRONGLY CURVED AND SEGMENTED WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE MI...ACROSS SCNTRL MI...TO THE ST. CLAIR RIVER/WRN LAKE ERIE. TSTM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI APPEARS LINKED TO FRONTAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE THUMB AREA. A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH THIS IMPULSE. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER SRN LOWER MI BUT SLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WERE RESULTING IN AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM NERN IL ACROSS NRN IND. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS HAVE ERUPTED OFF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVED OVER CNTRL LAKE MI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI...NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 41958811 43378263 41508264 40038813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 23:51:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 18:51:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232351.i4NNpUe13507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232350 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-240115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / WRN SD NERN WY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265... VALID 232350Z - 240115Z LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F. THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS NOT WARMED MUCH AND HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND...BUT TORNADOES APPEAR LESS LIKELY NOW AS LCLS WILL BE TOO HIGH ON WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND CIN WILL BE TOO GREAT ON THE COOL SIDE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 43630168 42680209 42380344 42680514 42940622 44250664 45580580 46340538 45890292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 01:41:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 20:41:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240141.i4O1fqe23317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240140 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...SRN AND ERN IL...IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 264...267... VALID 240140Z - 240245Z TORNADO WATCHES 264 AND 267 MAY BE REPLACED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WITH A NEW WATCH COVERING PARTS OF LOWER MI...IND...AND SRN IL. AN ARC OF SUPERCELLS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SRN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SSWWD INTO SRN IL. MOST INTENSE ROTATING STORMS APPEARED OVER LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN ECNTRL IL...SHELBY AND COLES COUNTIES IN SRN IL...AS WELL AS ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SRN IL. CELL IN COLES COUNTY HAS CONTAINED A LONG TRACK MESOCYCLONE AND APPEARS TO NOW BE BOWING OUT AND ACCELERATING EAST AT OVER 40KT. STRONG MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW APPROACHING 70KT AT 500MB...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS ALL INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WRN INDIANA....AND POSSIBLY WRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 37849031 37689090 39489084 40128805 42048768 43408264 41518260 40958472 39048483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 04:28:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 23:28:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240428.i4O4SXe25534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240426 MIZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269... VALID 240426Z - 240530Z SEVERE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 50KT ACROSS RANDOLPH... WAYNE...AND FAYETTE COUNTIES OF WRN IND AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN OH SHORTLY. ONLY ISOLD CELLS EXIST IN THE NRN PART OF WW 269 AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE WATCH AND AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. GIVEN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 39188740 43278629 43288297 39138450  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 06:10:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 01:10:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240610.i4O6Abe01104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240609 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-240815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...OH...WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...270... VALID 240609Z - 240815Z MCS HAS MOVED OUT OF SRN INDIANA INTO SWRN OH AND WILL CROSS CENTRAL PORTION WW 270 DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY TRENDS INDICATE WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY APCHS CMH. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP S OF LE OVER OH. ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN NRN PORTION WW 269...OVER LOWER MI...OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY COMPEL CANCELLATION OF WW 269 BEFORE 7Z. WW 270 TRENDS ALSO WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL LM...WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM JUST N GRR TO NEAR PHN. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ROUGHLY 20 KT ACROSS SERN LM AND SWRN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA REMAINS UNSTABLE...LIFT IS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY. PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION. FURTHER...ASSOCIATED SHIFT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING FARTHER NE VEERS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND IN TURN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCES FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI HAS DECLINED GREATLY. A FEW CELLS BETWEEN GRR-FNT EWD TOWARD THUMB MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OVER WARM FRONT. BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION ATTM IS N OF WW 269 AND N OF FRONT...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD NRN LH WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...CTP...PBZ...RLX... 39188455 43338497 43288299 39837958 39278401 41448401 42007961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 08:58:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 03:58:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240859.i4O8xMe01723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240855 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...WRN-CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270... VALID 240855Z - 241030Z BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL PA...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CROSSES REMAINDER NERN OH. EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH ENOUGH BEHIND THIS COMPLEX THAT WW CAN BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS IT PASSES. INTERMITTENT GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA - BUT STILL CAPABLE OF SOME DAMAGE -- COULD REACH GROUND THROUGH SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER ACROSS REMAINDER PA PORTION OF WW AND OVER CENTRAL PA FOR 1-2 HOURS AFTER SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. HIGHEST MEASURED GUSTS SO FAR WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE 44 KT AT VTA IN CENTRAL OH...OVER TWO HOURS AGO AT 654Z -- WITH MOST AFFECTED STATIONS REPORTING BELOW 35 KT. EXPECT FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TO CONTINUE GRADUAL STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS/WRN SLOPES OVER PA MAY BECOME OPTIMALLY EXPOSED TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ATTM THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW FARTHER E...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 39817907 39618107 40818041 41108058 41148112 41838103 42017906  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 13:42:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 08:42:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241342.i4ODgwe05285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241341 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-241545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0841 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / ERN SD...EXTREME NERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241341Z - 241545Z ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-16 Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. LOW LEVEL JET HAS TRANSPORTED RICH MOISTURE NWD INTO NEBRASKA JUST ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE OVER ERN NEBRASKA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE MOIST RETURN...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO SD...WHERE THE LFC WILL BE REACHED. MODELS ARE LIKELY UNDER FORECASTING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER WRN SD/NEB ON LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE INDICATE LIFT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THIS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INDICATE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42839942 43079997 44210023 44859943 45249654 43499650 42699678 42619775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 14:04:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 09:04:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241404.i4OE4Ue19174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241403 MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-241600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241403Z - 241600Z AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO ERN PA AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL PA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. MODIFIED OKX SOUNDING WITH LOW 80S OVER UPPER 60S INDICATES 2000-3000 MUCAPE DEVELOPING. WIND FIELDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH LAGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VECTORS WILL FAVOR FAST STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE ESE. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39957868 41207821 41767762 42557683 43127516 42627266 42267272 41437326 40937385 39887550 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 14:31:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 09:31:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241431.i4OEVwe06413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241430 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241430 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0930 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...ERN NEB...SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241430Z - 241630Z SCATTERED ELEVATED TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN MO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST KS. THESE STORMS ARE NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MO. STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LEAD SHORTWAVE...DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WHETHER ELEVATED OR SURFACE-BASED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS HIGH AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SURFACE-BASED STORM WOULD LIKELY HAVE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..HART.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39249704 40439754 41379774 41729633 41369475 39849399 37599364 37259482 37619630 38419671 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 16:25:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 11:25:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241626.i4OGQ3e18142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241624 NYZ000-PAZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / WRN NY...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241624Z - 241830Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL / WRN NY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL PA. A WW WILL BE ISSUED. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION. PRESSURE FALLS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG SRN NY/NRN PA BORDER INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW STORM GENERATION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWER. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 41647857 42457843 43057699 42827541 41357619 40417685 40457892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 17:37:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 12:37:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241738.i4OHc2e00805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241737 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241737 MOZ000-KSZ000-241900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN/W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241737Z - 241900Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 1720Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED ALONG N-S ORIENTED WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SALINE/OTTAWA COUNTIES EWD INTO CLOUD AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS. HERE...DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F AND DIABATIC HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN KS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA WITH MLCIN NOW AOB 50 J/KG. TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE LINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER/ CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FAVORING STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39189777 39849788 39849478 39889325 38549305 38029467 38049564 38069624 38049693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:24:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:24:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241824.i4OIOle02675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241824 MNZ000-IAZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MN INTO N-CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241824Z - 242000Z POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1805Z...LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER MOVING 230/35KTS EXTENDED FROM SIOUX COUNTY SEWD TO AUDUBON COUNTY IN NWRN/W-CNTRL IA. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OVER SERN SD INTO NERN NEB. SLY LLJ FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA IS TRANSPORTING VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM WITH RUC SOUNDING SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDING IN GRADUAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED PARCELS FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO S-CNTRL MN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43489486 44279494 44639387 44139209 43019178 42139248 42129346 42159432 42209478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241828.i4OISSe06187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241737 MOZ000-KSZ000-241900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN/W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241737Z - 241900Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 1720Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED ALONG N-S ORIENTED WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SALINE/OTTAWA COUNTIES EWD INTO CLOUD AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS. HERE...DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F AND DIABATIC HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN KS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA WITH MLCIN NOW AOB 50 J/KG. TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE LINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER/ CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FAVORING STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39189777 39849788 39849478 39889325 38549305 38029467 38049564 38069624 38049693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:54:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:54:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241855.i4OItHe27724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241854 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...NWRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL / IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241854Z - 242030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG WARM FRONT..WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BUT ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM PER AREA VWPS. APPROACHING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO FORM. OVERALL MASS FIELDS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE HOWEVER FOR LARGE SCALE INITIATION DUE TO DEEPENING LOW TO THE NW. THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... 35998976 35989074 36539139 37369105 37829009 37938632 37618596 36688581 36188746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 19:01:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 14:01:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241901.i4OJ1te32560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241900 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...ERN PA..NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...274... VALID 241900Z - 242030Z WE MAY REPLACE WW 271 AND 274 WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z. RADAR SHOWS INCREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF N CENTRAL NY STATE AND CENTRAL PA. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE MOVING THRU WRN NY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60-70 KT ACROSS SWRN PA. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH 50 KT ABOVE 600 MB. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40317403 40307469 40377600 40687682 41597651 42647643 43207649 43667599 43707490 42717394 41737386 40507391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 19:09:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 14:09:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241909.i4OJ9ge06500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241908 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272... VALID 241908Z - 242015Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 272. AS OF 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONGEST TSTMS OVER PLYMOUTH...WOODBURY AND IDA COUNTIES IN NWRN IA. STORM OVER WOODBURY COUNTY PRODUCED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AT 1830Z. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE BASED AROUND 750MB WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN NEB COUPLED WITH MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ALONG EWD DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EWD INTO S-CNTRL MN/N-CNTRL IA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS IA PORTION OF WW 272 INTO N-CNTRL IA WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. IA PORTION OF WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED SHORTLY BY NEW WW FARTHER TO THE E. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 45369872 45379502 42199483 42219833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 19:40:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 14:40:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241940.i4OJeXe29500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241939 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273... VALID 241939Z - 242115Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AS OF 19Z...MESOANALYSIS PLACED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW W OF CNK WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD INTO SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO AND THEN SEWD INTO E-CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD TO JUST W OF SLN/HUT. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING NE OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER CLAY/ADAMS COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NEB WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ALONG WARM FRONT OVER RICHARDSON/NEMAHA COUNTIES IN FAR SERN NEB. AIRMASS S OF DEVELOPING TSTMS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON /PER 18Z TOP SOUNDING/ WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 4000 J/KG. EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /LCL HEIGHTS 800-1000 M/ WILL SUPPORT STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY... EXTREME BUOYANCY ALONG WITH SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 42119903 42149376 39879326 39879836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:31:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:31:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242032.i4OKWDe02322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242028 MOZ000-KSZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN/W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275... VALID 242028Z - 242200Z INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER NERN KS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AS OF 2010Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM DONIPHAN SWD INTO LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN FAR NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM W OF STJ SWD TO W OF OJC. LOCAL AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE W ALONG BULGING DRYLINE. HERE TOO...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:36:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:36:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242036.i4OKaQe04943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242032 OKZ000-TXZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242032Z - 242230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD THEN OCCUR AND A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU FROM SW OF CDS TO CSM. CAP HAS ERODED AND A CONTINUED SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH RETREATING DRYLINE AND HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER AREA PROFILERS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH BASES OF STORMS INDICATE LOW TORNADO THREAT...UNLESS STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER E INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 33730109 34250118 34750051 36379968 36539926 36669864 36509798 35549796 34589859 33799963 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:58:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:58:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242058.i4OKwie21011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242057 KSZ000-OKZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242057Z - 242230Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED FOR N-CNTRL OK AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER S-CNTRL KS. AS OF 2045Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM GRANT/KAY COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK NEWD INTO SUMNER COUNTY IN S-CNTRL KS. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MOREOVER...REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WHICH IS RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55KTS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. STRONGLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AND LARGER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED WHICH SHOULD HINDER TORNADO THREAT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR N-CNTRL OK AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER S-CNTRL KS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36589812 37189803 38009748 38059654 37839603 36309700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 21:40:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 16:40:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242140.i4OLede17572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242137 MOZ000-KSZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0437 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ...SWRN VT...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277... VALID 242137Z - 242230Z A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 277. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 277 AT THIS TIME. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLD TORNADOES ARE QUITE LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING INTO DELAWARE COUNTY IN SERN NY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CO-LOCATED WITH SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 21:44:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 16:44:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242145.i4OLj8e20349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242143 COR VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ...SWRN VT...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 277... VALID 242143Z - 242230Z CORRECTED FOR UGC CODING A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 277. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 277 AT THIS TIME. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLD TORNADOES ARE QUITE LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING INTO DELAWARE COUNTY IN SERN NY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CO-LOCATED WITH SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... 39627472 39687791 43997569 43987228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 22:27:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 17:27:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242227.i4OMRle18898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242226 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN/CNTRL IA...NRN MO...WRN IL AND SERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273...276... VALID 242226Z - 250000Z VERY VOLATILE AND DANGEROUS SITUATION OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO THIS EVENING. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN AND NERN MO SHORTLY. SEE GRAPHIC FOR LATEST MESOANALYSIS. STRONG LOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEB/IA BORDER ATTM NEAR OMA. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TRACKING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE SERN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 273 SHORTLY AND A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS NRN MO. INTENSE ACTIVITY ALSO INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL IA. COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH THIS CONVECTION. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS WITH TORNADOES...EXTREME WIND GUSTS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL SPREADING ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO AS THE EVENING UNFOLDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 42129902 42179435 43589476 43539299 41219090 39759028 38629149 39919823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 22:42:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 17:42:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242242.i4OMgRe28271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242240 MOZ000-KSZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 279... VALID 242240Z - 250015Z CU HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ICT AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES POTENTIAL OVER COWLEY COUNTY KS WITH TCU AND IT IS STILL EARLY WITH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WATCH GIVEN STRONG PARAMETERS IN PLACE. PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER NERN KS...WITH ANOTHER AREA TO THE SW OVER WRN OK. MASS FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...GIVEN SMALL AMOUNT OF CIN ALONG DRYLINE AND EXTREME INSTABILITY...IF A STORM CAN GET ESTABLISHED IN THE MOIST AIR...THEN TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37059783 37999716 38159462 37009462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:04:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242304.i4ON4je09642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242303 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... VALID 242303Z - 250030Z SEVERE HAIL STORMS CONTINUE OVER WRN OK...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MOIST SELY FLOW CONTINUES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NW TX IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN THE CIN GRADIENT OVER WRN OK. THERE ARE MUCH GREATER VALUES ANALYZED E OF 1-44 AND I-35 SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN E OF THESE AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS INTO FAR N-CENTRAL OK...WHERE CIN IS LESS. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB... 34939736 33689799 33640044 35599951 36959845 36819729 35669698 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:26:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:26:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242327.i4ONRLe23035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242325 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VT...CT...MA...RI...ERN NY/PA...NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...280... VALID 242325Z - 250100Z STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TRACKING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES INTO STABLE/COOL AIRMASS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE CT RIVER OVER NRN MA TO NEAR CT/RI BORDER. CURRENTLY...ONE SUPERCELL OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VT APPEARS TO BE VERY NEAR WARM FRONT/SFC LOW INTERSECTION...OR PERHAPS INITIATED ON THIS INTERSECTION AND HAS NOW MOVED EAST. THIS CELL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CT RIVER VALLEY NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER STRONG CELL HAS RECENTLY WEST OF WASHINGTON COUNTY NY...AND ANOTHER STORM WITH A SMALL SCALE BOW WAS NOTED OVER SCHOHARIE COUNTY NY. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WITHIN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD CELLS OVER MA APPEAR TO DEVELOPING ABOVE SURFACE STABLE LAYER BUT SHOULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION AFTER CURRENT WATCHES EXPIRE. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41307076 41287351 41307385 39937469 39987776 44027574 44017229 42817294 42777087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:49:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:49:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242350.i4ONo8e02915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242348 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275... VALID 242348Z - 250045Z EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN KS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONE LONG TRACK SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD AT ABOUT 25KT TOWARD NERN RILEY COUNTY KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS (HCRS) TO THE SOUTH OF TOPEKA. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS PRIME FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO IDEAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38149466 38099817 40009831 39979553 39309455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:58:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:58:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242358.i4ONwpe09343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242357 COR MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275... VALID 242357Z - 250045Z CORRECTED SPELLING ON GRAPHIC EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN KS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONE LONG TRACK SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD AT ABOUT 25KT TOWARD NERN RILEY COUNTY KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS (HCRS) TO THE SOUTH OF TOPEKA. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS PRIME FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO IDEAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38149466 38099817 40009831 39979553 39309455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 00:27:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 19:27:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250028.i4P0S8e27151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250027 MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN/ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276... VALID 250027Z - 250130Z A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 276 MATURE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS CNTRL IA WITH DAMAGE REPORTS FROM DSM AREA. CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SCNTRL IA/NRN MO SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTO ERN IA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RELATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL MAY ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO COLD POOL MAINTENANCE AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AS ENTIRE COMPLEX DEVELOPS EAST LATER THIS EVENING. CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...OVER MARION AND MAHASKA COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY INVOF MESO LOW/WARM FRONT...MOVING TOWARD SRN EDGE OF THE WATCH AND NOW OVER RINGGOLD COUNTY...WILL POSE GREATER TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40569192 40569359 43569479 43569300 40589192 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:17:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:17:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250117.i4P1Hke22494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250115 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275...281... VALID 250115Z - 250245Z ...VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND SITUATION ACROSS AREAS OF NERN KS AND NRN MO THIS EVENING... TWO VERY LARGE SUPERCELL STORMS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS DOUGLAS AND OSAGE COUNTIES IN ERN KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST WITH POSSIBLE DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES CROSSING PORTIONS OF NRN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND CNTRL AND ERN OSAGE COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. A NEW CELL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER LYON COUNTY. THESE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS MAY THEN CONTINUE ON EAST INTO PARTS OF JOHNSON/FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND THE SOUTH KANSAS CITY METRO. TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO VERY HIGH WITH A PERSISTENT AND INTENSE SUPERCELL ANCHORED TO THE WARM FRONT OVER LINN AND MACON COUNTIES IN NERN MO. VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE WAS DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN NWRN/NRN MO...FROM BROWN/DONIPHAN COUNTIES IN KS NEWD TO GRUNDY AND MERCER COUNTIES IN NRN MO...THIS LINE MAY CONTAIN EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS/TORNADOES AND EXTREME WIND SPEEDS AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ACROSS ERN KS/NRN MO...AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38939046 38779295 38009304 38009772 39099770 39959622 39919382 40839371 40939052  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:36:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:36:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250136.i4P1ale01188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250135 OKZ000-TXZ000-250230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... VALID 250135Z - 250230Z WW 278 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WRN OK/FAR NW TX...LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING/SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A DIMINISHING TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34119826 34349998 35669945 35979930 36979858 36969624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 02:07:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 21:07:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250207.i4P27we18664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250206 MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276... VALID 250206Z - 250300Z BOW ECHO NOW MOVING OUT OF WW 276 AND SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AT ABOUT 30KT INTO WASHINGTON AND IOWA COUNTIES IN ERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS LEADING ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF WW 276 MAY NOT SUSTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD FOR VERY MUCH LONGER. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY RAPID DECREASE IN VIL VALUES WITH THE BOW OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. WHILE A FEW STRONG WIND REPORTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...TRENDS IN RADAR DATA AND DIURNAL COOLING SETTING IN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF ERN IA. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40569188 40579355 43559477 43559302 40619188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 02:19:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 21:19:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250219.i4P2Jwe25211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250218 KSZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250218Z - 250345Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NW KS INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL KS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ONGOING SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS IN NW KS APPEAR TO OCCURRING WITHIN LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG/BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/SE INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS -- CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR -- WHERE MUCAPE INCREASES TO 750-1000 J/KG ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL KS. GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LONG HODOGRAPHS/VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39280089 39770066 39919987 39849915 39599812 39009789 38369845 38369958 38840075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 02:21:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 21:21:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250221.i4P2LUe26468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250219 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280... VALID 250219Z - 250245Z AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WILL PERSIST NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BENEATH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CELLS MOVING OVER STABLE MARINE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED ON OKX AND CHH EVENING RAOBS. WITH STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH...AND DECREASING UPSTREAM INSTABILITY WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME COOLING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY SHOULD ENSUE. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41357073 41277353 42747351 42707075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 03:26:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 22:26:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250327.i4P3RAe28801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250326 ILZ000-MOZ000-250430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO ACROSS CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 281... VALID 250326Z - 250430Z ...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL REPLACE WW 821 EAST ACROSS IL TO THE IND BORDER... INTENSE LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WAS DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND WRN IL LATE TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OVER CNTRL/ERN IL AND ERN/CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40469066 40508757 38818779 37489163 38329401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 03:53:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 22:53:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250354.i4P3sMe08982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250353 OKZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL OK INTO NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250353Z - 250530Z MAINLY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM CNTRL OK N/NE INTO NCNTRL/NE OK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME FROM CNTRL INTO ERN OK WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH LIKELY E/NE EXPANSION OF TSTM ACTIVITY INTO ERN OK AS LOW LEVEL JET PROGRESSIVELY VEERS OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS SUGGEST S/SW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH ADDITIONAL LLJ INCREASE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SWLY ORIENTATION ENSUES. MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT IN SCNTRL KS MAY BACKBUILD AND/OR SPREAD SEWD INTO NCNTRL/NE OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE MAIN HAZARD...WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER TENDING TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 35099815 35809821 36659818 36869804 36939660 36849486 36099468 35209493 35129662 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 04:46:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 23:46:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250446.i4P4kde02292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250445 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 283... VALID 250445Z - 250615Z A COUPLE OF INTENSE BOW ECHO COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 283 AT THIS TIME. VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE MESOSCALE BOWS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 45-60KT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SRN BOW MOVING AT 55-60KT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH...INDIANA BORDER...BEFORE 07Z. THE NRN BOW WHICH IS INVOF WARM FRONTAL INTERSECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER... ABOUT 45KT...AND IS PRECEEDED BY A COUPLE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN MO AND SCNTRL IL WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME WIND EVENTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. 21Z ETAKF APPEARS TO HAVE VERY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH VERY PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THE MODEL DATA COINCIDENT WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET. THUS CURRENT STRONG/DEEP CONVECTIVE MIXING AND FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LONG-LIVED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37849292 39329294 40838757 39388754 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 05:01:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 00:01:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250501.i4P51Qe09814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250500 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250500 MOZ000-KSZ000-250630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... VALID 250500Z - 250630Z MOST CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DIED ACROSS TSTM WATCH 282 AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TRAILING PORTION OF MO SQUALL LINE...WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT NEAR MIAMI COUNTY KS. WE ARE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANT TO CLEAR OUT THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PERSISTS WITHIN AN AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST ETA SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS KS/OK BORDER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37079981 38039980 38349676 39149408 39119355 37159355 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 07:17:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 02:17:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250718.i4P7IFe10045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250717 MOZ000-KSZ000-250915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... VALID 250717Z - 250915Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...CROSSING INTO MO ABOUT THAT TIME. SOME FORWARD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS NERN PERIPHERY...IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION IN BOTH STATES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW MAXIMIZED FARTHER E...SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION ARE BECOMING MORE MARGINAL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTION MKC METRO AREA SWWD TO JUST S OF ICT-P28 AND ACROSS ERN OK PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK AND SERN KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN MO WSWWD ACROSS NRN TIER OF OK COUNTIES TO NEAR PNC...THOUGH AIR MASS TO ITS N -- OVER SERN KS -- REMAINS WARM/MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F. STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN SGF RAOB AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF SERN KS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN FORCE ASCENT FROM LLJ THROUGH CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH EFFECTIVE LOWEST 6 KM. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MO MCS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37039893 38029727 38489563 38659353 37009357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 09:24:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 04:24:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250924.i4P9Obe07221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250923 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-251100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... VALID 250923Z - 251100Z BOW ECHO HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS SUSPECTED...WW WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM NEAR EKN WWD TO JUST S CVG THEN WNWWD TO INTERSECT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ARC NEAR DECATUR COUNTY INDIANA...AS OF 9Z. MCV OVER NWRN INDIANA -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF MAXIMIZED ASCENT - ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD -- WELL N OF FRONT AND OVER RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS PRODUCED BY REMAINING ACTIVITY TO REACH SFC AOA SEVERE LEVELS. DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF FRONT ALONG SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED BY LOW LEVEL INVERSION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS AND SMALL MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL APCHG SEVERE LEVELS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 37828327 37978654 38488718 39048629 39938581 40548589 40398331 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 14:20:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 09:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251421.i4PELIe17116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251419 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-251545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SRN IND/NRN/CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251419Z - 251545Z RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SRN IL/FAR WRN KY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING THAT COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT LOUISVILLE VWP INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250 AND 400 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY. CONTINUED MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 38088871 38818808 39088669 39238533 38868362 38348283 37598315 37008479 37228765 37418888 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 16:14:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 11:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251614.i4PGEkO03667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251612 MOZ000-ILZ000-251745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251612Z - 251745Z ISOLATED HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM W OF COU WWD/SWWD TO SW OF SZL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...MESOANALYSIS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF SURFACE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...TRANSVERSE BANDING IN CIRRUS CLOUDS DENOTES CLOSE PROXIMITY OF UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ATOP SURFACE-850MB FRONTAL ZONE. LOCAL RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST N OF FRONT INDICATE MUCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG FOR ELEVATED PARCELS...SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MO AS WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS TSTMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38099439 38889402 39239246 38989068 38499040 37659091 37509344 37629416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 16:54:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 11:54:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251655.i4PGtHO01434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251654 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251654Z - 251830Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OH/S-CNTRL LOWER MI WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OH. TO THE W OF WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILES AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL TO THE W WITHIN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT AND FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS WARM SECTOR AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL EXIST AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40208316 41338292 41928198 41978001 40187990 38638092 38248224 38638290 39648330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 18:53:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 13:53:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251854.i4PIs2O25358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251852 TXZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251852Z - 252115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN/SWRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS IN THIS REGION. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 18Z...SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS WRN TX INCLUDED A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING FROM ROW ENEWD TO 35S LBB AND NEWD INTO SWRN OK. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME SWD FROM THE FRONT INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. ALOFT...BELT OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL NM NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...500MB WINDS OF 35-45 KT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BASED ON MORNING MAF SOUNDING...CONTINUED HEATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW 90S...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAPPING ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OR IN VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX ARE POSSIBLE AREAS FOR INITIATION. GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT...SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR /45-55KT/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD MITIGATE TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OF FAR SWRN TX. EARLY EVENING MODEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT ENEWD/EWD STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31630269 32880273 33300147 33530021 33339949 32379929 31489929 30739986 29980034 29980158 30200235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 18:59:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 13:59:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251859.i4PIxYO28820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251858 PAZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL PA SWD ACROSS WRN MD INTO NRN/WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251858Z - 252030Z DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 285 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM ALLEGHENY COUNTY PA SWWD INTO PUTNAM AND LINCOLN COUNTIES OF WV. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND SLIGHTLY LARGER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO PROMOTE DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON E OF WW 285. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40707933 40907856 40097733 37917851 36877942 36878046 37648097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 19:40:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 14:40:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251940.i4PJepO26912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251939 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO EWD ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SWRN IND INTO WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251939Z - 252115Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. BREAKS IN CIRRUS CANOPY HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON FROM N OF UNO EWD INTO FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LOCALIZED ASCENT ALONG COLD POOLS EMANATING FROM TSTMS IN PROGRESS TO THE N ACROSS WW 286 SWWD INTO SWRN MO SHOULD SUPPORT SWD TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50-55KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37809160 37939146 38458717 37738707 36978707 36549154 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 19:59:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 14:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252000.i4PK00O08885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251957 PAZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-252100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/WRN PA/WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 251957Z - 252100Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 285. AS OF 1950Z...BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM WESTMORELAND COUNTY PA SWWD THROUGH MARION...KANAWHA AND BOONE COUNTIES IN WV. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THUS...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG...PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN COLD POOL PRODUCTION AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV PORTION OF WW. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 41678211 41687923 37997980 38038258 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 20:19:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 15:19:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252019.i4PKJcO24031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252016 ILZ000-MOZ000-252145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 252016Z - 252145Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LONG-LIVED HP SUPERCELL OVER MONROE/ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN SWRN IL IS MOVING 285/35-40KTS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL FROM COU SEWD THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM SEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND POSSIBLY RANDOLPH AND PERRY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR JEF AND TBN WILL APPROACH WRN PORTION OF WW AREA WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ INTO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND RESULTANT COLD POOL PRODUCTION WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39569148 39588875 38028877 37959150  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 21:05:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 16:05:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252106.i4PL6AO25947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252102 KYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KY SOUTHERN IN SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252102Z - 252200Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFUSE E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FROM SRN IND INTO NERN KY. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER SRN IL AS STORMS TRACK EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. SINCE LEADING DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF SEVERE...WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 39238697 39628240 37638253 37638699  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:02:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:02:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252203.i4PM38O00939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252201 TXZ000-OKZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252201Z - 260000Z THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VICINITY FISHER/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OKC SWWD TO FISHER COUNTY STORM THEN WWD. CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE HOURS VICINITY FRONT NEWD INTO SRN OK AND EXPECTED TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE HOUR IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..HALES.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 32750049 33340012 33809963 34279883 34939785 35039751 34829665 34329668 32789756 31959834 31529928 31820022 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:04:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:04:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252204.i4PM4lO01735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252203 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MO SRN IL SWRN IN WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 252203Z - 252330Z MCS COMPOSED OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND EVOLVING BOW ECHOES CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SERN MO/SRN IL. SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE PERSISTED ALONG LEADING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO E-CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM IS NOW LOCATED. LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...OVERALL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FAVORS EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO SYSTEMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD AND FEED OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF E-W FRONT. FARTHER WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG SWLY H85 JET. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS THEY FEED OFF OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36439208 38549275 39188700 37628702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:04:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:04:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252205.i4PM5GO02027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252201 TXZ000-OKZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252201Z - 260000Z THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VICINITY FISHER/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OKC SWWD TO FISHER COUNTY STORM THEN WWD. CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE HOURS VICINITY FRONT NEWD INTO SRN OK AND EXPECTED TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE HOUR IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..HALES.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 32750049 33340012 33809963 34279883 34939785 35039751 34829665 34329668 32789756 31959834 31529928 31820022  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:05:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:05:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252206.i4PM6IO02567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252203 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MO SRN IL SWRN IN WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 252203Z - 252330Z MCS COMPOSED OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND EVOLVING BOW ECHOES CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SERN MO/SRN IL. SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE PERSISTED ALONG LEADING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO E-CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM IS NOW LOCATED. LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...OVERALL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FAVORS EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO SYSTEMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD AND FEED OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF E-W FRONT. FARTHER WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG SWLY H85 JET. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS THEY FEED OFF OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36439208 38549275 39188700 37628702  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:10:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:10:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252210.i4PMAfO05535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252209 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...DC METRO...NRN/WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 252209Z - 260015Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2145Z...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS S-CENTRAL PA/N-CENTRAL MD NEAR HGR...AND IN AN ARC FROM SHENANDOAH COUNTY VA SSWWD ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER. EMBEDDED CELLS WERE TRACKING GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. MESOSCALE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STORM CLUSTER SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VA. FURTHER NORTH...SUPERCELL STORM NEAR WASHINGTON/FREDERICK COUNTY MD LINE WILL CONTINUE ESEWD WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 287 FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MD AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. ..BANACOS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX... 36507883 36528189 40597900 40577596 40437487 37827635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 23:04:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 18:04:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252305.i4PN5BO04542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252304 ILZ000-MOZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MO CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 252304Z - 260000Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...WW 286 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE OF WW 286 THIS EVENING AS SWLY LLJ OVERSPREADS KY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO SRN MO...WHERE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER SURFACE BASED STORMS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT /AS IS OCCURRING NOW IN CENTRAL MO/. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 37489282 38419323 39328904 38078905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 04:29:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 23:29:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405260429.i4Q4TgO21586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260428 OKZ000-TXZ000-260630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/NWRN TX TO SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260428Z - 260630Z STRONG TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED. A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF LBB AND SOUTH OF CDS WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN STONEWALL...NRN DICKENS AND KING COUNTIES. EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER 21Z ETAKF/00Z WRF4 QPF...AND TO SOME EXTENT RUC QPF THROUGH 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AIDING INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS THEN BEING LIFTED ACROSS OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS. SOURCE REGION LAPSE RATES NOTED IN MAF 00Z SOUNDING COUPLED WITH STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE AND HAIL. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUBTLETIES OF HOW LONG STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. LIMITED COVERAGE IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA AND GFS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 33149966 33000084 33610181 34400183 35030022 34549892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 13:21:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 08:21:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261321.i4QDLmO06407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261320 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261320Z - 261445Z STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PIKE/LINCOLN COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL MO SWWD INTO MILLER/CAMDEN COUNTIES. 12Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-65KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS PROVIDING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR EVOLVING STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...AND GIVEN THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THUS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38369167 39289075 39578991 39628802 39278582 38378566 38048618 37508970 37309121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 15:54:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 10:54:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261554.i4QFsLO12470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261550 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS IL/IND AND MUCH OF KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... VALID 261550Z - 261715Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 292...AND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S AND E OF WW AREA. THUS...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. UPSCALE EVOLUTION IN RAPID MOVING MCS HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN IND AND SRN IL. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM FROM HARDIN COUNTY WWD INTO WILLIAMSON AND JACKSON COUNTIES OF FAR SRN IL. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SERN MO...WRN KY AND WRN TN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS/ IS ADVECTING THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SYSTEM AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR AFOREMENTIONED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SRN FLANK. STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 60-70KTS AT 500MB AND 100-110KTS AT 250MB/ WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER AND SWD ACROSS KY. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 39098995 39078513 38978313 36598408 36578930 37418977 37339147 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 16:56:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 11:56:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261656.i4QGuZO26594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261655 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-261830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PA SWD INTO WV/WRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261655Z - 261830Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ARMSTRONG AND BUTLER COUNTIES OF WRN PA WITH ADDITIONAL MORE MATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FARTHER S OVER EXTREME SERN OH AND WRN WV. THOUGH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DAYTIME HEATING... MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME PA INTO CNTRL OH AS OF 16Z. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN IL/IND SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. RELATIVELY STRONG AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39098162 41037968 41977833 41807614 40387730 38777935 37848050 38318219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 17:14:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 12:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261714.i4QHEiO07384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261712 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-261945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...WRN/SWRN TX...AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261712Z - 261945Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX NNEWD INTO SWRN/WRN OK. WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK SOON. AT 17Z...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR NRN OK INTO SWRN MO. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MIX EWD INTO WRN OK AND THEN ARC SWWD ALONG A CDS-LBB LINE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE AND DEVELOPING CUMULUS TOWERS SOUTH OF AMA TO EAST OF CVS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH MUCAPE AXIS OF 3000-4000 J/KG FROM MAF TO CDS AND RAPID WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER WRN TX. TRENDS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN TX/SRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CAP BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER EWD ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL OK...WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF SWRN U.S. CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT. SUPERCELL STORMS WITH EWD/ESEWD STORM MOTIONS AT 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE CAN INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM MAF INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 31800100 30990172 30410214 30220241 30180317 30280372 30750389 31450351 33380322 34230269 34890104 35270015 35849956 36419930 36339860 35439852 34009848 33220038 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 17:39:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 12:39:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261739.i4QHdNO25524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261738 MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-261915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/WV/WRN AND CNTRL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261738Z - 261915Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN VA OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM GILES COUNTY SWD INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. MEANWHILE...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WAS LOCATED OVER MASON COUNTY WV MOVING ESEWD AT 40KTS. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS IS TENDING TO OVERSPREAD REGION FROM THE W...PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILE OBSERVED CURRENTLY ON CHARLESTON WV VWP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT WRN VA STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF WW 293 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 293. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... 39058155 38937704 36557875 36648417 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 18:20:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 13:20:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261820.i4QIKVO23464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261818 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-261945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...FAR SERN IND/SRN OH INTO FAR WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293... VALID 261818Z - 261945Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. LARGE MCS IS IN PROGRESS OVER MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SYSTEM MOVEMENT EWD OR ESEWD AT 40-50KTS. SRN PORTION OF COMPLEX REMAINS MOST INTENSE FROM BULLITT/HARDIN COUNTIES SWWD INTO MUHLENBERG/HOPKINS COUNTIES INTO WRN KY. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OVER ROBERTSON...NICHOLAS AND BOURBON COUNTIES IN CNTRL KY. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE A SLOW TRANSITION OF LOWER REFLECTIVITIES FROM UPSHEAR TO DOWNSHEAR OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SYSTEM RELATIVE WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG AND THIS IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER-SCALE REAR INFLOW JET WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED WITH DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS REMAINING MORE LOCALIZED TO SMALLER-SCALE BOWS. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS INDICATES A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 39058543 39058150 36628494 36638873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 18:47:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 13:47:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261847.i4QIlLO10211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261845 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261845Z - 262045Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ERN MT AND NRN WY. DIFFERENTIAL PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESEWD REACHING SERN ND/NERN SD AROUND 27/00Z. ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NWRN SD WILL ADVANCE EWD WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDING FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE TO CLOUD STRUCTURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SW OF BIS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS YIELDING MAXIMUM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ABR SOUNDING FOR 18Z SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS A MUCAPE OF 1200 J/KG. WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD READILY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE SD/ND BORDER AS TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS GIVEN SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. SUPERCELL MOTIONS LIKELY 270/25-30 KT. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH ROTATING STORMS. FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45829887 47899866 47739599 44459610 43789598 43739781 44009891 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 19:52:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 14:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261952.i4QJqHO26383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261950 NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261950Z - 262115Z ONGOING SEVERE STORMS OVER SRN KY MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1940Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED THAT PORTION OF MCS OVER ADAIR/RUSSELL/PULASKI COUNTIES OVER S-CNTRL KY HAS STARTED TO PROPAGATE QUICKLY TO THE S ALONG LEAD EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL. FARTHER W...CELL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MORE ELY ACROSS SWRN KY...HOWEVER A SLOW SWD SHIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG MCS OUTFLOW. AIRMASS ACROSS NRN TN REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36618515 36628231 36538137 36038186 35998313 35938815 36648820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 20:34:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 15:34:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262035.i4QKZFO26036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262032 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294... VALID 262032Z - 262200Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 20Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF PAH WNWWD TO N OF SGF. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH 16Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS...SWLY WINDS IN THE 1-3KM LAYER ARE LIKELY ADVECTING WARMER AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 18Z LMN SOUNDING INTO THE REGION. THUS...CAP MAY BE STRENGTHENING TO SOME DEGREE AT LEAST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. FARTHER E...TCU/SMALL CBS OVER TEXAS/DENT COUNTIES SUGGESTS THAT CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE AN UPSTREAM 70-75KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY OFFSET PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT SGF VWP INDICATES SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER E...SUPERCELL OVER CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IS MOVING ESEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM KY MCS. THOUGH PAH REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY IS MOVING S...AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE STORM BECOMING ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38439353 38438776 36438891 36469454  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 21:18:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 16:18:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262118.i4QLIZO23367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262115 PAZ000-MDZ000-262315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262115Z - 262315Z THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL PA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT DURATION OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. AT 21Z...INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO S-CENTRAL NY. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS AREA IN LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY EWD AT 25 KTS. SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL STORM ROTATION...ENHANCING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT BOUNDARY LAYER COOL ACROSS NJ AND FAR ERN PA WHERE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS STORMS TRACK EAST. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF A LINE FROM AVP TO 40 SW ABE. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 40817783 41557744 41917667 41897600 41627558 40967543 40297550 39847578 39747590 39637639 39547714 39807786  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:00:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:00:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262200.i4QM0RO19883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262157 NCZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262157Z - 262300Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN NC IN THE NEXT HOUR. MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARD CNTRL VA AND CNTRL/SRN NC THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE WLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR E THE MCS CAN SURVIVE. GIVEN MEAN WLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE FACT THAT MCS HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...DOWNSTREAM AREAS FROM CNTRL/SRN NC MAY HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS SOON AS IT IS A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAT THE STORMS CAN SURVIVE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 36028149 36137996 36057783 35247776 34817825 34627862 35008067 35348137  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:11:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:11:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262212.i4QMC0O28497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262210 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262210Z - 262315Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NERN MO EWD THROUGH CNTRL IL INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MIGRATING EWD ACROSS KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GENERATING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID MS VLY RECENTLY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE FROM CNTRL MO TO EXTREME SWRN KY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD THIS EVENING...SWLY LLJ WILL RESPOND AND ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR MASS ATOP THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY ROTATE GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX... 39919226 40238946 40048754 38588766 38579262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:28:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:28:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262228.i4QMSXO07889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262227 VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...NERN TN...EXTREME SWRN VA AND NWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296... VALID 262227Z - 270000Z LEADING EDGE OF CNTRL APPALACHIAN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN VA AND NWRN NC WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN TN INTO SWRN KY. COLD POOL IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD...BUT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SWRN KY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN PARTS OF WW 296. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. VWPS SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT BRIEF SPIN-UPS WITH THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN WW 296...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NERN PARTS OF THE WW IN SERN KY/SWRN VA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT TSTMS MAY REGENERATE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN WW ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36748803 37918786 36748156 35578166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:38:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:38:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262238.i4QMcQO14274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262237 OKZ000-TXZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298... VALID 262237Z - 270000Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2220Z...SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED 40 ENE CSM MOVING ENEWD AT 40KT. PRESENT MOTION SUGGESTS STORM IS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTION OF THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 2330-0000Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM SPLITS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED EWD IN CENTRAL OK TO ADDRESS SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS. IF RIGHT MOVING CELL SLOWS DOWN AND MOVES WITH MORE OF AN ELY COMPONENT...THIS WOULD STRONGLY INDICATE UPDRAFT HAS BECOME ROOTED IN MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/. TLX VAD INDICATES A SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL WOULD MOVE ROUGHLY 270/20 KT GIVEN PRESENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THIS WOULD CONDITIONALLY INCREASE TORNADO THREAT...BUT PRESENCE OF MODERATE CAPPING INVERSION MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNCERTAIN. OTHER ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN OK IN VICINITY OF NOW RETREATING DRYLINE OVER SRN JACKSON COUNTY OK AND HARDEMAN COUNTY TX. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34439847 34430056 36959901 36909693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:57:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:57:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262258.i4QMwEO26148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262257 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-270030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...SRN IL AND EXTREME W KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294... VALID 262257Z - 270030Z LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS BUILT BACK NEWD INTO SWRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HIGH/MIDLEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS HELD BACK STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THUS...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED QUIET...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING IN RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED SW OF KVIH ALONG THE FRONT/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE CELLS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE CAP. HOWEVER... THESE STORMS MAY ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND TAP MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PROXIMITY RUC2 SOUNDINGS HAVE 0-1KM SRH OF 225 M2/S2 AND IF TSTMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY/ FRONT...RISKS OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM AROUND KSGF-KCGI. OTHERWISE...AS THE TSTMS DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME WITH THREATS FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO WATCH 294 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... 36589442 38389347 38338793 36528905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 23:08:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 18:08:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262308.i4QN8tO32300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262307 OKZ000-TXZ000-270030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297... VALID 262307Z - 270030Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2250Z...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM KENT COUNTY TX SWWD TO NEAR MAF. STRONGEST STORM IN WW 297 WAS LOCATED OVER KENT COUNTY...LIKELY CONTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN/INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS TRACK EWD AROUND AT 25-30 KT THROUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY / 100MB MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG /. SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /40-50KT/ AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS PRIMARY THREATS...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW 0-1KM SRH MITIGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 30830268 33110271 35439923 33139927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 23:38:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 18:38:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262338.i4QNcoO18096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262337 OKZ000-270100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...302... VALID 262337Z - 270100Z CONTINUE WW 298 AND WW 302 ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER SRN CANADIAN COUNTY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN/SRN PORTION OF THE OKC METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. STORM MOTION HAS TURNED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT...WITH ESTIMATED MOTION BASED ON PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS 280/30 KT. THIS TRACK YIELDS A 0-1KM SRH OF 175 M2/S2 BASED ON CURRENT TLX VAD WIND PROFILE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW LCL HEIGHTS. PROVIDED STORM UPDRAFT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED DESPITE INHIBITION LAYER...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2" IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS GARFIELD COUNTY OK. STORM SPLITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH THE RIGHT MOVING STORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36919856 36969542 35569631 34899680 34719744 34419850 34619975 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 00:21:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 19:21:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270021.i4R0LQO08736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270019 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-270215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...CNTRL MD...EXTREME NCNTRL NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299... VALID 270019Z - 270215Z MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS CNTRL VA AND NWRN NC. LEADING EDGE HAD WEAKENED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HAS REGENERATED SOMEWHAT OVER CNTRL VA AND NWRN NC. DIURNAL COOLING HAS BEGUN TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE MCS HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND IS EMBEDDED IN MEAN WLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA AND NCNTRL NC. MARINE LAYER FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COAST MAY INHIBIT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN SERN VA. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 36568005 37897799 39647658 38937623 36667730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 00:58:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 19:58:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270058.i4R0wmO28675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270057 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO INTO WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270057Z - 270200Z PARTS OF WW 294 AND 296 WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. 00 UTC KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED THAT EARLY SUSPICIONS OF THE CAP BUILDING NEWD WERE CORRECT...KEEPING SWRN/SCNTRL MO CONVECTION FREE THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER NE...SRN EDGE OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND NERN MO HAVE ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER VCNTY WARM FRONT FROM NE OF KVIH TO KBLV. THESE TSTMS HAVE EXHIBITED DEVIANT MOTION AND MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WHERE 0-1KM SRH WAS OVER 350 M2/S2. THE SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD...BUT MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE EARLIER MCS DEVELOPED. THUS...TORNADO RISKS MAY DIMINISH WITH TIME IF THE AIR MASS HAS NOT HAD TIME TO RECOVER. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE AND TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE MID MO/LOWER OH VLY. AVAILABILITY OF UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL KEEP A LARGE HAIL THREAT ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN OK MAY EXPAND WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS AND MOVE NEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN KS AND SWRN MO AS WELL. VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 294/296 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REISSUED AND EXACT PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION WILL BE DISCUSSED IN AN UPCOMING CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICES. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 37889381 38479351 38348789 37958806 37668631 36468596 36589537 37629539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:29:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270130.i4R1U8O12142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270129 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK AND NWRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...302... VALID 270129Z - 270300Z NO AREAS WILL BE CLEARED OUT OF BOTH WW/S 298 AND 302 THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME. PAIR OF SUPERCELLS OVER NRN OK IN WW 302 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT INCREASING CINH MAY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT EAST OF WW 302. CURRENT STORM MOTIONS WOULD TAKE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF FAR NERN CORNER OF WW 302 BY 0230Z...THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF NERN OK INTO FAR NWRN AR. FARTHER SW...ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SWRN OK /WW 298/ SHOULD PERSIST WHILE MOVE ENEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE OVER WRN OK /WW 298/ WHERE CINH WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THUS NO AREAS WILL BE CLEARED OUT OF BOTH WW/S. ..CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34410056 36979896 37009674 36909456 36029349 35689423 35979580 34729688 34749826 34419844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:41:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270141.i4R1fIO17864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270140 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-270245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 270140Z - 270245Z OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SEWD THROUGH MOST OF THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 301. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SWRN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UPSTREAM TSTMS WILL PROBABLY SURVIVE INTO PARTS OF WRN NC FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THESE TSTMS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE OH VLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT TO A MINIMUM LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. VALID PORTIONS OF WW 301 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0400 UTC...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX... 35758340 35188153 35238007 34847997 35148150 34938334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:55:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:55:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270156.i4R1u2O25641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270154 OKZ000-TXZ000-270300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297... VALID 270154Z - 270300Z SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 297 EXPIRATION TIME APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX TO THE NORTH OF THE ABI AREA. OVERALL INCREASING CINH EAST OF WW 297 SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WW OVER NCENTRAL TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NW IN THE VICINITY OF CDS WHERE STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A REPLACEMENT WATCH BEYOND 03Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY MAF APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN WAVE CLOUDS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32150087 33880050 34750039 35419925 33139923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 02:37:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 21:37:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270237.i4R2bqO14824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270236 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO INTO SCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300... VALID 270236Z - 270330Z BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT PERSIST ACROSS ECNTRL MO INTO SCNTRL IL LATE THIS EVENING AND ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG LLJ AXIS. THIS LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SWLY AND AIM INTO THE LOWER OH VLY/KY BY 0600 UTC. THIS MAY SHIFT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FARTHER SE INTO MCS ALONG THE OH RVR WITH TIME. UNLESS AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY OCCURS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WW 300 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY OR NOT REISSUED AFTER THE 0400 UTC EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX... 40069211 39988761 38628767 38719208 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 03:22:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 22:22:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270322.i4R3MjO04988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270321 VAZ000-NCZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA AND NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303... VALID 270321Z - 270415Z WW WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE 0600 UTC...OR AFTER TSTMS CLEAR THE COASTAL ZONES OF NC/VA. LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE SERN VA AND WILL DO SO BY 0400 UTC OVER NERN NC. UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NERN NC AND ADJACENT OCEAN/INLETS. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 35457715 37747581 37917460 35467598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 04:16:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 23:16:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270416.i4R4GrO31914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270414 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO...SRN IL...W KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 304...305... VALID 270414Z - 270615Z A RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW/S. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW/FRONT SITUATED FROM SRN IL WWD ACROSS SRN MO TO NEAR EMPORIA KS. PROFILERS/VWP SHOWS THAT A SWLY LLJ HAS INCREASED AND IS ORIENTED FROM WRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. THIS WARM ADVECTION DERIVED LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN KS INTO MO...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN MO THIS EVENING. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS RICH WITH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY THROUGH THE KTBN AREA TO SRN IL/W KY. THUS...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THAT CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...TSTMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN KS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AND WILL DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO WCNTRL/SWRN MO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF THE TORNADO WATCH 304. ALL ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM SERN MO/SRN IL INTO W KY. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37229703 38209706 39329490 39349256 38548998 38438705 37138708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 06:18:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 01:18:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270618.i4R6IfO28563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270616 MOZ000-KSZ000-270815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 270616Z - 270815Z BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 6Z FROM OSAGE COUNTY KS SEWD INTO WW 304 -- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD PORTIONS KC METRO AREA AND BEYOND INTO WRN MO. SOME NWWD BACKBUILDING OF LINE ALSO IS POSSIBLE....WITH NEW CELL GROWTH EVIDENT ATTM OVER PORTIONS LYON/WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS BAND -- AND POSSIBLY MORE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-RH LATER NEAR 850 MB -- AT BOTTOM OF DEEP PLUME OF 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES -- CONTRIBUTES TO 3000-3500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATED THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM ABOVE INVERSION LAYER. MAIN THREAT REMAINS LARGE HAIL...THOUGH WITH SUCH LARGE BUOYANCY...CANNOT ELIMINATE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT PUNCHING THROUGH RELATIVELY STABLE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38459270 38319612 38749665 39369604 39529268 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 06:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 01:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270654.i4R6scO12415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270653 WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-270930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN IL...SRN INDIANA AND NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270653Z - 270930Z SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN INDIANA...TOWARD THAT PORTION OF NRN KY NE THRU ENE OF SDF. OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL SHOULD MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO SRN INDIANA. PRIND THREAT IS MARGINAL ENOUGH NOT TO NEED WW. AIR MASS NEAR SFC HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PASSAGE OF EARLIER MCS PRESENTLY OVER SERN KY. HOWEVER...ABOVE THAT COLD POOL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA IS AIDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. PARCELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC AS THIS ELEVATED BUOYANCY PLUME -- MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG -- SHIFTS ACROSS OH RIVER INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS KY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE-BEARING LAYER IS FAVORABLE WITH VALUES OF AT LEAST 50-60 KT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG SEVERE LIMITS MAY PENETRATE STABLE LAYER TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38188575 38538748 38878909 38999021 39189052 39349044 39509006 39628859 39478670 38658333 38508269 38038247 37618268 37778365 38138543 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 07:29:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 02:29:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270729.i4R7TbO28167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270728 NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-270900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KY...EXTREME SWRN VA...EXTREME NWRN NC...PORTIONS NERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270728Z - 270900Z LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN INVOF VA/KY BORDER BY 8Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY ON NW-FACING SLOPES OF RIDGES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER BUT MAINTAIN SOME STRONG -- POSSIBLY DAMAGING -- WIND POTENTIAL SSEWD INTO MOUNTAINS OF TN/NC BORDER REGION. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF SMALL AREA AFFECTED AND FCST WEAKENING TREND. FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW SLOPE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE MARGINAL BUOYANCY -- ELEVATED MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG -- AND RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER OF 50S/LOW 60S SFC TEMPS. COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS AREA OF NERN TN/NWRN NC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36668436 36758345 37048217 37098169 36848117 36258071 35918090 35778144 35558300 35828399 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 08:28:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 03:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270828.i4R8SkO24921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270827 MOZ000-271030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307... VALID 270827Z - 271030Z OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS ENSUED...THOUGH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS ERN MO N THROUGH E OF SGF. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA -- ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE SFC AIR MASS N OF ARM FRONT -- IS SHIFTING N OF REGION ...FROM WW 306 NWD OVER NWRN MO. MAIN SEVERE THREAT NOW IS OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL...EXCEPT FOR CORRIDOR ACROSS WRIGHT/TEXAS/SHANNON COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSEST TO SFC WARM FRONT AND DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL OCCUR GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM STONE TO ST CLAIR COUNTIES...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN WW FOR NOW BUT CONSIDER CANCELING BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF... 36749110 36729407 37479428 38009391 38009179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 08:58:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 03:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270858.i4R8wJO06791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270855 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...EXTREME NERN KS NEAR MO RIVER...EXTREME SERN NEB. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 270855Z - 271030Z THIS WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. BAND OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD AND PROPAGATING NWWD OVER DISCUSSION AREA...FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW -- KC METRO AREA -- GENERALLY NWWD TO JUST SW FNB. CONTINUED NWWD BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION REGIME...SUCH THAT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT PORTIONS PAWNEE/NEMAHA/RICHARDSON COUNTIES NEB THROUGH 10Z...AND MUCH OF NWRN MO THEREAFTER. OVER WRN MO THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-70 THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED BUOYANCY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH IS ANALYZED ATTM FROM W-CENTRAL KS CYCLONE ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL MO. MUCAPE RANGES FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG S OF MKC TO AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR MO/IA BORDER. 40-50 KT LLJ IS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA...ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO NW-SE ALIGNMENT OF TSTM BAND. PRIND THIS MCS AS A WHOLE WILL INTERMITTENTLY YIELD SEVERE HAIL FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...WITH WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...OAX... 38459270 38439414 38939497 39419545 39529268 39439545 39669604 39849629 40099633 40419609 40589581 40589555 40549517 40369466 40009399 39689346 39509325  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 11:11:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 06:11:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271111.i4RBBVO09264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271110 TXZ000-NMZ000-271345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX/NM AND PECOS/CONCHO VALLEYS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271110Z - 271345Z POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL -- IS INCREASING THIS MORNING OVER PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS NWD ONTO SRN HIGH PLAINS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM NEAR BREWSTER/PRESIDIO COUNTY LINE IN TX NWD TO TX/NM BORDER NW INK...THEN NEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER OF NM...NEWD PAST LBB AND ACROSS WRN OK. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WHILE AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC/ETA -- BOTH OF WHICH INDICATE GREATLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE PRECIP THIS REGION AFTER 12Z -- SHOW DECREASING CINH WHILE MAINTAINING FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY -- I.E. MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG ROOTED NEAR 800 MB LEVEL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA AT FIRST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MIDMORNING WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES AND MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER SRN AZ/NRN SONORA APCHS. DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS EVIDENT IN TSTMS NOW DETECTED FROM ELP AREA SWWD ACROSS NWRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT AT LEAST 60 KT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN FIRST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30420254 31290354 32160326 33660211 34040169 33680118 32910048 30930006 30370053 30240104 30250172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 15:30:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 10:30:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271530.i4RFUiQ10865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271529 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-271730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL TX INTO SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271529Z - 271730Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. IMMINENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HAS ADVECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACCELERATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. MOISTENING IS OCCURRING AND CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ...WHICH HAS SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS. THIS DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...EAST OF DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING WEST OF DRY LINE...IN BAND OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION... ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AREA. MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS IN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG... WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE HAIL THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT UP WEST OF EASTWARD SURGING DRY LINE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ROOTED IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING BELOW CLOUD BASES WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY INCREASES NEAR/NORTH OF MIDLAND THROUGH THE CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREAS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32770327 34340253 35160065 34899902 33559826 32669846 31269986 31730142 31060323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 16:12:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 11:12:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271612.i4RGCjQ12698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271610 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-271815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN MO INTO W CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271610Z - 271815Z WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TAIL END OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER TO THE WEST OF LAMONI. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THIS BAND THROUGH THE HANNIBAL/QUINCY AREA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DESPITE RELATIVELY SMALL/WEAK LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41109447 41079248 41119055 40418826 39338875 39069022 39059209 40069457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 18:08:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 13:08:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271809.i4RI9EQ32737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271807 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...S CNTRL IND...SW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271807Z - 272000Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL WWS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO...GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF QUINCY/ SPRINGFIELD/BLOOMINGTON AND CINCINNATI. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO REMAIN... AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. FORCING ON TAIL END OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AIDED EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN VERY MOIST/BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX... 40469030 40708913 40598793 40168661 39848521 39818420 39158373 38868420 38648563 39728996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 18:53:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 13:53:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271853.i4RIrkQ32051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271852 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308... VALID 271852Z - 272045Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 308 WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO... OTHERWISE CONTINUE WW 308. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL LIFT/ MOISTENING IN DIFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...PAST FEW HOURS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER TO BEGIN DEVELOPING MORE SOUTHWARD THAN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAVE DISSIPATED...AND 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THIS AIR MASS BEGINS FEEDING INTO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY...WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR RAIN CORES FOR EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. LOUIS THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40319538 40329433 40419285 40469188 39959092 39308988 38669054 38489181 38599325 38999417 39419459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 19:09:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 14:09:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271909.i4RJ9NQ10955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271907 MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN PA...MD...NRN VA...ERN VA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271907Z - 272100Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM W-CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO SERN PA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY LIMIT NEED FOR A WATCH. AT 19Z...GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS NRN VA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CREST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL-SCALE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONES OR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WLY TO WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESEWD AROUND 25 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37977949 39547857 39997775 40067700 39957633 39207626 38507628 37977626 37557668 37477767 37527848 37707915 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 20:17:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 15:17:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272020.i4RKK9Q30457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272012 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IN...W CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 272012Z - 272215Z CONTINUE WW. 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND UP TO 3000 J/KG...ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA IS BENEATH ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE TOWARD 28/00Z...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS GROW/BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 40339030 40548873 40758716 40258545 39508457 38848621 39098757 39438976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 20:22:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 15:22:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272022.i4RKMxQ00620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272018 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT AND THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272018Z - 272215Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN SD NWWD INTO THE NERN CORNER OF MT. IN DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND -18C ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND FAR ERN MT...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AS CELLS SPREAD ESEWD AT 25-30 KT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F SUGGEST LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46860458 49010591 48900399 45169980 43219857 43080057 43300280 43930317 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 20:39:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 15:39:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272040.i4RKe4Q14769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272037 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-272230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW...N CNTRL INTO E CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310... VALID 272037Z - 272230Z CONTINUE WW. DOWNSTREAM AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. MESO HIGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SURFACE COLD POOL LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND MERGE WITH NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VICINITY OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. AIDED BY INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND MAIN DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEAR LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA BY AROUND 28/00Z. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39889468 39789308 40169231 40139182 39599091 39278933 38938766 38318722 37758826 38009008 38439244 38729326 39249449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 21:09:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 16:09:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272109.i4RL9RQ02748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272104 TXZ000-272300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN/CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311... VALID 272104Z - 272300Z CONTINUE WW 311. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 2045Z...UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD THROUGH ERN NM. ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING SEVERE ACTIVITY FROM JONES COUNTY TX SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION IS CAPPED...HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN CAP REMOVAL ALLOWING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD /500MB TEMPERATURES OF -7C IN CENTRAL TX TO -12C WITH UPPER LOW/...HOWEVER...SURFACE ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA   000 ASUS43 KTOP 272101 RWRKS WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR KANSAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 400 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. KSZ001>006-013>018-027>032-041>047-272200- NORTHWEST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS GOODLAND MOSUNNY 80 40 23 NW9 29.81F $$ KSZ061>065-074>080-084>089-272200- SOUTHWEST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DODGE CITY PTSUNNY 88 37 16 NW13 29.76S $$ KSZ066>073-081>083-090>101-272200- SOUTHEAST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COFFEYVILLE MOSUNNY 87 61 41 W15G21 29.65R HUTCHINSON MOSUNNY 90 51 26 NW12 29.69F MEDICINE LODGE N/A 90 48 23 VRB5 29.70R PARSONS MOSUNNY 87 64 46 SW8 29.66S WICHITA INTL PTSUNNY 89 56 32 N14 29.68S $$ KSZ007>012-019>026-033>040-048>060-102>105-272200- NORTHEAST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CONCORDIA SUNNY 84 52 33 N13G20 29.69R TOPEKA FORBES SUNNY 88 67 49 NW9 29.62F $$ WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 21:19:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 16:19:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272119.i4RLJgQ09749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272114 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-272245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN OH...NWRN WV AND NRN PNHDL OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272114Z - 272245Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND/OR MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS THE MIAMI VLY OF OH CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD AND SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER TSTMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE LANCASTER AREA. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS FARTHER WEST...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDING INTO THE MID OH VLY. GIVEN WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WITH THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40658333 40548050 38938055 38998331 40658332  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 22:02:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 17:02:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272203.i4RM38Q05878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272201 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 272201Z - 272330Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ SERN MO INTO SRN IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY EWD TO NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW HAS FORMED NEAR ST. LOUIS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO PIVOT ABOUT AN AXIS. STORMS EAST OF THE LOW ARE DEVELOPING ENEWD WHILE WEST OF THE LOW...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE SEWD. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE TSTMS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3500 J/KG. AS THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BENEATH THESE TSTMS...THE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SEWD INTO THIS AIR MASS...LIKELY DRIVING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BOW ECHO MAY BEGIN FORMING AND MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SERN MO AND SRN IL GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED JUST SOUTH OF WW 309. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38148894 37368916 37509251 38849490 40169480 39378901 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 22:25:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 17:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272225.i4RMPpQ19374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272224 IDZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272224Z - 280030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN ID THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN ID IN REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55 KT...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. ROTATING UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL WHILE POSSIBLE SMALL-SCALE BOW SEGMENTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER...THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A WW. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI... 42441582 42931616 43311615 43591543 43861445 43701362 43281312 42731295 42421318 42241360 42311548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:01:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:01:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272301.i4RN1xQ08107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272300 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND/OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 272300Z - 280030Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES FROM ECNTRL IL INTO WCNTRL OH WITHIN WW 309 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TWO CORRIDORS OF TSTMS...ONE FROM NCNTRL IND INTO CNTRL OH AND ANOTHER ACROSS SRN PARTS OF IND/IL...JUST SOUTH OF WW 309. A NARROW WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG RESIDES ACROSS CNTRL IND BETWEEN THE TWO LINES OF TSTMS AND AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO NWRN IND/CNTRL IL. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 39709022 39919022 40498755 41088680 40718346 39158360 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:15:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:15:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272315.i4RNFZQ15800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272313 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-280045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MID OH VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... VALID 272313Z - 280045Z A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID OH VLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL OH AND WCNTRL WV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING SEWD AT AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS SCNTRL OH AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE WELLSTON AREA OF NRN JACKSON/SRN VINTON COUNTIES BY 0000 UTC. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED LOW LEVEL ROTATION ON THE WILMINGTON OH RADAR. PRESSURE FALL AXIS EXTENDS NEWD INTO SERN OH AND THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM FROM SWRN OH INTO WRN WV AND SWRN PA...WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE POINTED INTO PARTS OF WV THROUGH LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY VEERING TO MORE WLY. THIS MAY FAVOR A TRANSITION INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS GIVING WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38898330 40808327 40387976 38457982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:24:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:24:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272324.i4RNOHQ20560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272322 KYZ000-INZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/ECNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272322Z - 280015Z A SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/ECNTRL KY. THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. LOUISVILLE RADAR SHOWS A POTENTIAL SUPERCELL ABOUT 10 MILES NW OF LOUISVILLE WITH SOME SIGNS THAT THE CELL IS TRANSITIONING INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OTHER CELLS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE AND WILL BE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD NCNTRL/ECNTRL KY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. THESE TSTMS WILL BE TRACKING ALONG NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. GIVEN 60 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE EWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37988540 38868541 38538357 37818350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:36:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:36:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272336.i4RNaSQ27275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272335 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KY EWD INTO PARTS OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272335Z - 280000Z INCREASING CONCERN THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FROM NCNTRL KY INTO PARTS OF WV. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AND MAY REPLACE WW 313. LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWS NEARLY 23 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR WITHIN AND ENVIRONMENT OF LOW LCL/S. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT EWD INTO THE MID OH VLY AND EVIDENCE OF SEVERAL POTENTIAL TORNADIC TSTMS...AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE PRUDENT AND A CONFERENCE COLLABORATION CALL WILL BE MADE SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39008541 39118283 38867996 37598075 38048549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 00:14:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 19:14:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280014.i4S0EEQ16677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280012 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...312... VALID 280012Z - 280145Z ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE WW 310 AND 312. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ALONG WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WITH WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE 0-1 SRH VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2 OVER SERN MO EWD INTO KY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE OUTFLOW HAS NOT UNDERCUT UPDRAFT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36559222 37499300 38479323 38669198 38899064 38798951 38848859 38758732 38338542 36668540 36458762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:02:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:02:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280102.i4S12qQ14887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280101 VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PNHDL...CNTRL MD AND CNTRL/NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280101Z - 280230Z TSTMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF INTENSITY INCREASES...OR...IF UPSTREAM OH VLY ACTIVITY SURVIVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 00Z BLACKSBURG AND WALLOPS ISLAND SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT RECENTLY DEVELOPED TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOREOVER...TSTMS UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN WV WILL BE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE ERN WV PNHDL INTO WRN VA BY 0200 UTC. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OVER THE REGION AND ANY TSTM WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ORGANIZE INTO ROTATING TSTMS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE REGIME NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED STORMS IS NOT HIGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IF STORMS DO SHOW AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY...A WW WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 315. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39567958 39487733 38897692 37937715 37587851 37807966 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:04:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:04:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280104.i4S14gQ15758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280102 TXZ000-OKZ000-280300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 280102Z - 280300Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAINS...ALTHOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF CURRENT N-S LINE OF STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S F. OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND 700 MB TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE. ..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32039543 31769789 32499752 33659750 33939540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:54:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:54:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280154.i4S1suQ08829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280153 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-280330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY INTO SRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280153Z - 280330Z A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 0230 UTC FROM PARTS OF CNTRL KY EWD TO SRN WV. BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED FROM A TORNADIC SUPERCELL EAST OF LOUISVILLE AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO MOVE INTO AREAS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF LEXINGTON BY 0300 UTC. PER VWPS...LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY AND IS AIMED INTO ERN KY/SRN WV. AS SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM MATURE... THEY ARE BECOMING MORE ORIENTED WITH THE MEAN WLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT BOW ECHOES THAT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF ERN KY AND SRN WV DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW FROM A LINE OF TSTMS FARTHER NORTH OVER CNTRL WV...WILL SAG SWD INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SWD LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN AXIS FOR UPSTREAM STORMS TO MOVE ALONG. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 317. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... 37758536 38397978 37538056 37238191 37098231 37208546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 02:09:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 21:09:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280209.i4S29kQ16776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280208 MOZ000-280345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0908 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280208Z - 280345Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH INTENSIFYING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT AND SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN MO ALONG OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER NWRN MO. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO STRONG INHIBITION LAYER NOTED ON THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING. THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTURE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER IL/IND WILL LIMIT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... 36669328 36879398 37729392 38029328 37919171 37869140 36799126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 02:41:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 21:41:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280241.i4S2fQQ32240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280239 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY INTO CNTRL WV CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315... VALID 280239Z - 280415Z A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 0400 UTC. A COUPLE OF WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHOES ARE TRAVERSING THE VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 315. ONE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS OF WV IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER WAS JUST EAST OF LEXINGTON KY. AIR MASS ACROSS NERN KY AND PARTS OF CNTRL WV HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE EVENING. CHARLESTON WV VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST NEAR 26 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOWS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LINEARITY OF THE ONGOING TSTMS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT TORNADO WATCH 318 BY 0400 UTC. AT THAT TIME...AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF TORNADO WATCH 315 COULD OCCUR. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37878533 38408534 38618385 38937972 38437976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 03:28:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 22:28:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280328.i4S3SqQ23701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280327 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR SRN IND AND WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 317... VALID 280327Z - 280500Z SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN/ERN HALF OF WW 317 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW EXPIRATION TIME. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH THE BOW ECHO/SUPERCELLS OVER FAR SERN IL/FAR SRN IND INTO WRN KY. SEVERE THREAT OVER SERN MO WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO INCREASING ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER FAR SERN IL AND SWRN IND. EXTRAPOLATED 45-50 KT SEWD LINE MOTION WILL TAKE SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE SERN CORNER OF WW 317...THE BOWLING GREEN AREA...BY AROUND 05Z. CONVECTION ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER SERN MO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES SSEWD OUT OF WW 317 AND SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO FAR SERN MO AND SWRN KY BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. LONG LIVED SUPERCELL OVER FAR SRN IND APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HANCOCK CO INTO LARUE CO OVER NCENTRAL KY. IF STRONGLY DEVIANT SEWD MOTION CAN OCCUR WITH THIS SUPERCELL AND BRING THE STORM DOWN THIS BOUNDARY THEN A GREATER TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE ERN HALF OF WW 317 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVER THE WRN HALF OF WW 317 THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ABOVE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37709125 37069122 37098992 37168555 38438553 38458688 37908813 37598941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 04:18:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 23:18:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280418.i4S4IvQ16569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280417 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-280515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/ERN KY AND SRN WV CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315...318... VALID 280417Z - 280515Z SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES CONTINUES. TWO WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS KY. ONE WAS APPROACHING THE WV/KY BORDER NORTHEAST OF JACKSON IN THE COALFIELDS...THE OTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING THE LOUISVILLE AREA. OTHER TSTMS TRAIL BACK INTO FAR WEST KY TO NEAR PADUCAH. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE BOW NEAR LOUISVILLE MAY MOVE OVER AREAS WHERE RECENT CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH...AND STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE AS IT TRACKS TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF LEXINGTON BETWEEN 05-06 UTC. HOWEVER...AIR MASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ECNTRL/ERN KY REMAINS PRIMED FOR TSTMS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO WATCH 315 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0500 UTC. FAR SWRN PART OF THIS WATCH MAY BE IN LINE FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER EXPIRATION. BUT...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO TORNADO WATCH 318. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 38368546 38458257 38318115 38398035 37168044 36488513 37778518 37878543 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 16:31:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 11:31:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281631.i4SGVQj25829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281629 MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH INTO NRN WEST VIRGINIA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281629Z - 281900Z CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH HEATING ...SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...AND THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...ACROSS CENTRAL OH. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD...STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. EMBEDDED WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...LIKELY BELOW 50 KT... BUT STILL CAPABLE OF SOME SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39248323 39848327 40278282 40328093 39758010 39527964 39317926 38538067 38288151 38388251 38868262  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 16:56:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 11:56:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281656.i4SGuJj11034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281655 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281655Z - 281930Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A WW. NARROW LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION AS MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR SO...BUT MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES. AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT/APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS AS THEY SPREAD EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 44457294 44997214 44717162 43787217 42877251 41647303 41077401 41457462 43067390 44337315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 18:37:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 13:37:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281837.i4SIbKj16524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281836 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...CNTRL MS...W CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281836Z - 282100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORE OF MID/UPPER JET IS PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...BUT BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHERE FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEATING AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AND WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR. THOUGH HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM PROPAGATION...RISK OF GUSTY/ POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30679289 31709186 32249118 33099021 33398926 33348750 32288898 30369131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 19:08:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 14:08:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281908.i4SJ8qj11218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281907 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...NRN GA...PARTS OF WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281907Z - 282130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...NOW NORTH/EAST OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA...MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR JET CORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. THIS FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA BY 21-22Z...INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF AUGUSTA AFTER 29/00Z. BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND DEEPENING CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. THOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS/WEAK LAPSE RATES HAVE MINIMIZED CAPE AND INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ASCENT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO WEAK...50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION/PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE CRITERIA APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL...SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 34098592 34528504 34168226 33028251 33148409 33278665 33598640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 20:26:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 15:26:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405282026.i4SKQFj32504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282019 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-282215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282019Z - 282215Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 22Z. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S S OF WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH BENEATH MDT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BEFORE CELLS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A SMALL MCS WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42159849 42619917 43669984 44329980 44309781 43499646 42679638 41939668  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 00:33:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 19:33:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405290033.i4T0XCj09254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290031 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL / SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 290031Z - 290200Z SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SERN SD AND NERN NEB CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES MOIST INFLOW. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THEY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE. FURTHER W...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN SD WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS POOR ON RAPID CITY SOUNDING WHERE A MIXED LAYER PARCEL YIELDS SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION. ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWS HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THUS...ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT AXIS PROVIDED BY SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41479491 41459940 44870058 44879585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 02:04:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 21:04:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405290204.i4T24oj20286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290203 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 290203Z - 290300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0300 UTC. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS LOCATED ALONG THE MO RIVER FROM SIOUX CITY TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 0300 UTC. THE 00 UTC OMAHA SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASING CAP BUILDING NWD BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE SUPERCELLS INFLOW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN MORE AND MORE INHIBITION WITH TIME...AND THE CELLS SHOULD DIMINISH. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN ALONG NOSE OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DENOTED BY EXPANDING BANDS OF TSTMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM ERN SD...SERN ND INTO SWRN MN AND PERHAPS NRN IA. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE MOISTENING MIDLEVELS...AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 41529759 42459871 42659980 44880042 46459872 46619640 45309369 44459330 42359356 41529492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 04:42:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 23:42:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405290442.i4T4gRj25573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290441 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... VALID 290441Z - 290615Z TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IA. PROFILER/VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 60 KTS...SIMILAR TO LATEST RUC FORECAST. AN IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR WATERTOWN SEWD TOWARD FT. DODGE AND CARROLL IA. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EXHIBIT MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND GIVEN 45-50 KTS OF CAPE-BEARING SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WHAT WERE SUPERCELLS EARLIER THIS EVENING IN THE SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY AREAS HAVE EVOLVED INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS AND ARE MOVING INTO WCNTRL IA. THESE CELLS...WHILE PROBABLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SMALL DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD INTO POSSIBLY WCNTRL MN SEWD INTO NCNTRL IA IN A FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 42109623 44429837 45469761 45729628 44929470 42099312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 17:43:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 12:43:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291744.i4THi1j22993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291742 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291742Z - 291915Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSOLATION VICINITY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU INCREASING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F THROUGH ADVECTION WHICH IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE AND HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER. CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F AS INDICATED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES. COMPLICATING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION. SLA AND FBY PROFILERS SHOWS ONLY 10-15 KTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KM AGL. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STORMS SHOULD THUS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 40649231 40789351 41149458 41409515 43149838 43639840 44619789 42629367 41989244 41579166 40669130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 18:03:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 13:03:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291803.i4TI3ej32766@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291802 NEZ000-KSZ000-292000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL/CNTRL KS...S CNTRL/SE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291802Z - 292000Z INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH TRANSITION TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE VICINITY OF HILL CITY THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF SALINA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS...EAST OF SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF RUSSELL. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CAP IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN CAPPING LAYER NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIATION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 21Z EAST OF HILL CITY...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CONCORDIA KS/HASTINGS AND BEATRICE NEB AREAS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE HODOGRAPHS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 29/21-30/00Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70F...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK...TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40089988 40759929 40959798 40749668 39669633 38289777 38779874 39389995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 18:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 13:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291856.i4TIuaj25935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291854 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB...NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291854Z - 292130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN NEAR TERM... BUT ONE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF DENVER. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND MID-LEVEL COOLING FOCUSED AHEAD OF BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE HEATING AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVENTUALLY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...AS HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO VERY WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39250386 39790470 40660360 40250273 40900171 40750036 39680032 38660090 38140250 38390380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 19:34:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 14:34:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291934.i4TJYij14392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291933 OKZ000-TXZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291933Z - 292130Z MASS FIELDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU BUILDING ALONG DRYLINE IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. CONVERGENCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY FOCUSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE...BUT AREA PROFILERS IN NM AND W TX INDICATE EFFECTS OF SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE BEING FELT WITH WINDS AT MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO BACK A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO UNIFORM VEERING OF WINDS BEHIND TCU LINE AT THE MOMENT...INDICATING SLIGHT DISORGANIZATION OF DRYLINE FORCING MECHANISM...GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY QUICK ONCE DEEP CONVERGENCE BECOMES SUFFICIENT. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE / DEWPOINT SPREADS 25-30 F AND STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE TX/ WRN OK BORDER MAY HOLD MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AT BAY INITIALLY...UNTIL STORMS GET INTO DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO WRN OK LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34300079 34930041 35700020 36520006 36789885 36569811 34159885 34070093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 20:16:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 15:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292016.i4TKGHj01976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292012 MNZ000-NDZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292012Z - 292215Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY APPARENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS TO THE WEST OF JAMESTOWN ND. STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SHEAR AXIS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS IMPEDED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION IS POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46649958 47239956 47969967 48729941 48919848 48789701 46409699 45979821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 21:58:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 16:58:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292158.i4TLwVj16478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292157 OKZ000-KSZ000-292300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...SRN/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322... VALID 292157Z - 292300Z SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE FROM BECKHAM COUNTY OK...NNEWD INTO STAFFORD COUNTY KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTH CENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35099971 37049910 38289868 38039722 36009761 34969864 34669937 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 22:02:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 17:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292202.i4TM2Hj17739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292201 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 321... VALID 292201Z - 300000Z CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPES NOW 2500-3000 J/KG. STORMS OVER ERN SD AND NERN NEB. ARE ENTERING INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WITH VWPS INDICATING 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 ALONG WARM FRONT / OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42209407 42169925 45939996 45879434 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 22:17:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 17:17:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292217.i4TMHij25002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292216 KSZ000-NEZ000-292315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB TO NRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 323... VALID 292216Z - 292315Z EXPANDING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS IS DEVELOPING NWD FROM MITCHELL COUNTY KS...NWD INTO FILLMORE COUNTY NEB. STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER CENTRAL KS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SFC LOW INTO THIS REGION SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MASS FIELDS WITH EXPLOSIVE ANVIL EXPANSION ATOP THIS MATURING CLUSTER. WITH TIME SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO REMAINDER OF ERN NEB. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39349825 40099872 40680027 41569970 41799794 40839678 39409677 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 22:54:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 17:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292255.i4TMt4j11514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292253 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... VALID 292253Z - 300000Z ...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN KS. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F SUGGESTING LOW RH BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AHEAD OF CONVECTION. EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NERN CO AND SWRN NEB MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ALREADY STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 39210209 39750172 40590118 40330011 39430001 38830065 38580182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 23:38:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 18:38:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292338.i4TNcbj30439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292337 MOZ000-KSZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326... VALID 292337Z - 300030Z LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD AID ONGOING TORNADIC SUPERCELL ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX... 38979461 39739513 40379412 39849322 38889372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 00:05:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 19:05:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300005.i4U05Gj07560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300004 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-300200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 300004Z - 300200Z CONTINUE WW 324. THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT...CONTINUES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ORIENTED WNW-ESE NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER. DEEP LAYER OF SLY FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE PER FARGO VAD SUGGESTS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...AND FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE /MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG/. STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER WW 324 IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN ND AND W-CENTRAL MN WHERE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY 200/15-20 KT...WITH STRONGER CORES LIKELY CONTAINING HAIL. VERY STRONG HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS AND THREAT FOR LARGEST HAIL. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS CELL INTERACTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR SERN ND COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ND/SD LINE...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE BORDER...BUT PRIMARILY IN WW 321 ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN. A SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX CENTERED 20N DVL CONTINUES MOVING NWD...HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY WEAK...LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN HALF OF MN. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45919861 48960077 48979704 45919503 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 01:28:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 20:28:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300128.i4U1SGj10721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300127 OKZ000-KSZ000-300230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS...NCNTRL/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322... VALID 300127Z - 300230Z ...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN KS/NERN OK... ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW. THE NRN MOST TORNADIC STORM IS LOCATED OVER SUMNER COUNTY KS...THE OTHER APPROACHING THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO AREA. THESE STORMS INITIATED OFF THE DRY LINE AND HAVE YET TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CAP...IT APPEARS THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO SERN KS/NERN OK. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35569826 38419733 38559566 37189563 35289635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 01:47:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 20:47:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300147.i4U1llj19414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300145 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326... VALID 300145Z - 300245Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REPLACE TORNADO WATCHES 323 AND 326... STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO NERN KS WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC CLUSTERS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REPLACE PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 323 AND 326. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40789895 42509649 42299443 40639401 39139400 38509581 38659783 39749814  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 02:21:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 21:21:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300222.i4U2M3j01361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300221 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN/NRN NE/NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 321... VALID 300221Z - 300315Z CONVECTION IN WW 321 IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...AS MAIN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM 65 N ATY/RWF/25 NNE SUX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND SHOULD BE MAIN CONCERNS...THOUGH VWP DATA FROM SIOUX FALLS INDICATE AROUND 30 KT 0-1KM SHEAR. AIRMASS QUALITY IS NOT AS GOOD FARTHER EAST IN E CNTRL MN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT WILL FOCUS EAST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN...AND SO LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING HOWEVER. A WW IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE/IA...AND WE WILL MONITOR MN STORMS FOR TRENDS. IF STORMS DO NOT WEAKEN WITH TIME...ANOTHER WW WILL BE CONSIDERED FARTHER EAST THAN WW 321. ..TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42189552 42169931 45929992 45919428 43609414 42189400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 04:24:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 23:24:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300424.i4U4OOj20854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300423 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300423 MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK TO SERN NEB/SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 327...328... VALID 300423Z - 300530Z ARCING LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO NRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS SURGING NEWD ACROSS NEB AT ROUGHLY 40KT...WITH SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVEMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO KS. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY STRUGGLE TO BUILD SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHER TORNADIC ISOLATED STORMS PERSIST JUST EAST OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NWRN MO. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE RELUCTANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO LIFT SIGNIFICANTLY NEWD. FARTHER SOUTH...MORE DISCRETE LONGER LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE YET TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK...ESPECIALLY THE LINCOLN/CREEK COUNTIES OK THUNDERSTORM. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE AIDING TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH THIS SUPERCELL. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID... 35849711 37369769 38599870 40589783 42039815 42609652 42089453 40089350 38619446 36079509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 07:40:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 02:40:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300740.i4U7eKj04085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300738 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NW MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 327... VALID 300738Z - 300915Z A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL IA ACROSS FAR NW MO AND INTO ECNTRL KS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES INTO FAR WRN MO AND ECNTRL IA BY THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME. REINTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 327. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN KS. MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS AREA REMAIN BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LINE HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...IT MAY REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NE KS AND FAR WRN MO SHOW 50 TO 60 KT JUST OFF THE SFC AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT AREA ACROSS FAR ERN KS. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40509506 41719400 42019312 41879252 41529200 40799215 39259371 37879518 37399652 37489740 37989779 38349754 39289629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 12:25:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 07:25:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301225.i4UCPmj05058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301224 TXZ000-301400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301224Z - 301400Z ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL TX SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SPITE OF THE CAP PROBABLY DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL LIFT ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE 700 MB WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS CNTRL TX. MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND +13 C. STILL...THE UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE (7.0 C/KM). THE GFS AND NCEP REF MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX AND MOVE IT NEWD INTO NE TX GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT LATE THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31549977 32259898 32589771 32439696 32229681 31529678 30699817 30579954 30979978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 14:42:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 09:42:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301442.i4UEgLj01395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301440 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF MO/SE IA/W CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301440Z - 301715Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...BUT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS. LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING/LIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER OK INTO AREAS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG . FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH LITTLE TO IMPEDE SURFACE HEATING. WARM SECTOR SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE LINEAR FORCING MAY SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE...AS WELL AS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...NOW JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY MO...MAY POSE MOST SIGNIFICANT INITIAL THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL FORMATION. STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT INITIATION BY/ SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MO INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OUN... 37439465 39289405 40009396 40529377 40959265 40789107 39798987 37419110 36639256 35229432 34649600 34779670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 15:05:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 10:05:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301505.i4UF59j12487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301504 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301504Z - 301730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCHES AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. NEW CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEAR/EAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MO. THIS IS IN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME ROOTED FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND INCREASING. AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN POLAR/ SUBTROPICAL JETS. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38189021 38938884 38478723 36888641 36368843 36838952 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 16:06:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 11:06:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301606.i4UG6sj08225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301604 ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-301800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL...WRN IN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 329... VALID 301604Z - 301800Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL EXPIRATION AT 18Z. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MESO LOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS NEAR/NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON IL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FORMING ABOVE REMNANT NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT WITH FURTHER HEATING ISOLATED SUPERCELL ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL. OTHERWISE...MODELS SUGGEST WARMING ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAY CAP ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS...UNTIL SEVERE THREAT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME... MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE NOW NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO INTO THE LOUISVILLE KY AREA WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ON NOSE OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IWX...IND...MKX... 40648834 40408781 39788764 39498852 40158914 42098648 40918512 39618564 40088715 40638778 41508820 42448842 42588713 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:15:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:15:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301716.i4UHG2j07583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301713 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PARTS OF NW IL...SW WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301713Z - 301915Z RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CENTERED NEAR DUBUQUE AT 16Z...HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NOW WEST SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC POLAR JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MISSOURI. AXIS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN IOWA BORDER/MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 21Z...AND WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELL NEAR SURFACE WAVE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORNADOES...AND MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE KIRKSVILLE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42879164 43409090 42828990 41908952 40869016 40209111 40439194 40939240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:16:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:16:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301716.i4UHGtj07841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301715 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...EXTREME NERN TX...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301715Z - 301845Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER SERN OK...SWRN AR...POSSIBLY EXTREME NERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO COVER REMAINDER OF AREA. CAP IS ERODING OVER THE AREA WITH COOLING ALOFT. AIR MASS IS BECOMING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG. VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND STRONG 0-1 SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33409410 33419677 34559612 34569367 34579273 33389308 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:54:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:54:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301754.i4UHsKj25138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301753 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-302000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...NW AR...NE OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 330... VALID 301753Z - 302000Z CONTINUE WW 330...AND NEW WW EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG BENEATH LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING...NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KANSAS/ MISSOURI BORDER. SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...AND PROGRESS EAST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREAS BY 21Z... WHILE EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH SUPERCELL NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE KIRKSVILLE AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS SQUALL LINE EVOLVES. PRIMARY THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS BEST IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA. BACKED FLOW ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 36919421 38759345 39619284 40339262 40559202 40649180 40599113 40849072 40408975 39578895 39048955 38799050 39039109 38309149 36549271 35249470 34879547 35129586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 19:32:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 14:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301932.i4UJWLj03081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301927 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI...EXTREME NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301927Z - 302100Z CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER LOWER MI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR FEEDING INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IN SEWD. WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAR NWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT SMALL WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR MAY MAKE IT INTO EXTREME NERN IN / NWRN OHIO...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41748568 43428599 43278423 42608282 41628364 41638445  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 22:12:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 17:12:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405302212.i4UMCXj07243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302210 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-302345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 330...333...334...336... VALID 302210Z - 302345Z ...HIGH TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN IL... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN IL. VERY STRONG SFC-1KM SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30M/S...HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS REGION THAT HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED TROPICAL AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. IN ADDITION...LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE DISPLAYING STRONG TORNADIC SIGNATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 33139411 34759433 35999383 37489195 38729073 39168874 35318979 33339164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 22:38:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 17:38:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405302238.i4UMc4j17787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302236 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-302330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 332...334...339... VALID 302236Z - 302330Z ...TORNADIC THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN IL... BOUNDARY LAYER IS RECOVERING ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI AS WARM FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED ACROSS SRN WI...EXTENDING ESEWD FROM REDEVELOPING ELONGATED SFC LOW NEAR LSE-DBQ. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN IL...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... 39319082 41228998 42749075 43898974 43248749 39728782 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 22:54:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 17:54:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405302254.i4UMsoj24483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302253 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-310030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302253Z - 310030Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM SERN OK / WRN AR INTO NERN TX...INCLUDING AREAS S AND E OF DALLAS. STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG COLD FRONT...AND CAP HAS BROKEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DALLAS AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE DALLAS AREA IS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES BUT INCREASES QUICKLY E OF THE AREA...THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR DALLAS AND MOVE NE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN ALL AREAS AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 31989739 33029642 34509559 35789445 35759244 34399311 32989394 31889461 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 00:19:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 19:19:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310019.i4V0J6j27777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310018 MIZ000-WIZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310018Z - 310145Z ...INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MI... EARLIER MCS HAS SURGED WELL SOUTHEAST OF LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORCED A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NRN IND THAT APPEARS RELUCTANT TO LIFT NWD IN THE SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS THAT LIFT/DEVELOP NEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WW AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...MKX... 44538816 44378592 42438371 42188617 43348759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 00:22:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 19:22:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310022.i4V0MBj28800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310021 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OH...ERN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 335... VALID 310021Z - 310145Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A REPLACEMENT WW APPEARS LIKELY. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 200-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH INDICATED ON AREA VWPS. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AIR OVER OH IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO COOLING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE UNSTABLE FEED AND POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY AGAIN DEVELOP...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT. LIFT FROM COOLING ALOFT / HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING WAVE...REFLECTED / FALL COUPLET OVER IL/IN...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE UVVS ONCE AGAIN...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR WARM FRONT / OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MCS OVER NRN OHIO IS STABILIZING THE AIR MASS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...INGESTING UNSTABLE AIR WITHIN SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 39188229 38348258 37318304 37128390 37328538 38228534 39408489 40808486 40978195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 01:40:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 20:40:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310140.i4V1esj29635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310139 OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-310315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...NWRN OH...WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343... VALID 310139Z - 310315Z ...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS IND INTO NWRN OH... COMPLEX MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM NRN IND...SWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST A MESO LOW MAY BE EVOLVING ALONG WRN MOST PORTIONS OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NWRN IND. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN IND INTO NWRN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN OVERTURNED ACROSS NRN OH...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM MCS FAVORS CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 36688870 39668724 41458664 41198431 37208631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 01:54:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 20:54:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310155.i4V1tEj03249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310154 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 336... VALID 310154Z - 310300Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL IN THE NEXT HOUR... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC STRUCTURES HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN EXPANDING ZONE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN PORTIONS OF TN...SWWD INTO SRN AR. NEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN MS INTO TN. PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUPPORT TORNADIC THREAT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS/DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM INTO MIDDLE TN. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33229354 34369142 36148929 36348669 35548611 33968738 32978987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 01:57:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 20:57:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310157.i4V1vLj03928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310155 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310155Z - 310300Z WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS E CNTRL TX/AR. EVENING SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES SHOWS AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR STORMS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3500-4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED NE ACROSS NRN LA...SO THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND IF THEY DO...A WW MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT. ..TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31019326 31369367 31809401 32629393 32969362 33009156 32939017 31118995 31049221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 03:48:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 22:48:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310348.i4V3mMj14090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310347 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-310445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...OH...KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343...344... VALID 310347Z - 310445Z WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS...WITH LOOPING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS ERN IND/WRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT AND SHOULD PROGRESS DEEP INTO CENTRAL OH BY 05Z. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS NRN OH SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS E-W BOUNDARY. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... 36718706 37848588 40728438 40668156 37098407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 04:06:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 23:06:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310406.i4V46Cj20691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310405 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310405 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345... VALID 310405Z - 310500Z ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS SURGING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN INTO NRN AL... WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS LATE THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SEVERAL ACCELERATING BOW ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE...ONE IN PARTICULAR OVER NRN MS IS RACING EWD IN EXCESS OF 50KT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34098922 36348658 36348456 34878547 33918742 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 06:07:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 01:07:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310607.i4V67Kj06203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310606 KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345... VALID 310606Z - 310730Z ...SITUATION ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN REMAINS DANGEROUS EARLY TODAY WITH EXTREME WINDS AND TORNADOES LIKELY... SEVERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO RACE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN EARLY TODAY. SQUALL LINE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AND HEIGHTENED TORNADO THREAT MAY CURRENTLY EXIST FROM BEDFORD COUNTY INTO COFFEE...WARREN...AND GRUNDY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS POTENTIAL DEEP CIRCULATION AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. RECENT SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO 70 MPH WERE REPORTED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER MARSHALL COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION MAY FURTHER STRENGTHEN REAR INFLOW JET INTO THE BOWING LINE MOVING EAST AT 50-60KT FROM WRN FRANKLIN COUNTY TO MARION AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33758909 34828751 36718638 36658448 33668601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 06:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 01:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310628.i4V6S6j14607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310627 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-310830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/MS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 346...347... VALID 310627Z - 310830Z LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ALIGNED WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN LA AND MS. COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL STORMS AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. APPARENT LINE INTERSECTION WITH BOWING STORMS OVER HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN NWRN MS MAY BE THE LOCATION OF MOST ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SHORT-TERM WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL. STRONG/DAMAGING WIND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NCNTRL MS COUNTIES OF HOLMES...ATTALA...WINSTON... KEMPER...AND NOXUBEE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LAGGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND STORM CHARACTER MAY TRANSITION TO MULTICELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA. AIRMASS FEEDING THE STORMS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE...LLJ/LIFT INTO THE TRAILING LINE SHOULD SUPPORT BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF FLOODING. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...SHV... 32159089 31969398 32349379 33169107 33558908 33598823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 06:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 01:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310642.i4V6gFj20544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310640 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-310845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WV...VA...KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 344...348... VALID 310640Z - 310845Z SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH RIVER AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 348 SHORTLY. LATEST LINE MOTION WAS ALMOST DUE EAST AT 45-55KT WHICH WILL BRING THE LINE ACROSS MUCH OF WV AND SWRN VA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LATEST UPSTREAM VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES THE NOSE OF 50-70KT MID LEVEL JET IS DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE SQUALL LINE. STRONGER WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 36628079 36668581 37298459 38458395 39228414 41458220 41428101 40168162 40157892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 08:42:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 03:42:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310842.i4V8gfj08237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310840 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-311015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SWRN VA...ERN TN...WRN NC/SC...NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...349... VALID 310840Z - 311015Z EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION WAS CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND MESOSCALE ASCENT WAS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE LINE BY FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT 60-70KT FLOW WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET. MOTION ALONG THE LINE WAS GENERALLY EAST AT BETWEEN 45-50KT AND EXPECT THIS SPEED TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF WATCHES 348 AND 349 OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND A HALF. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST INVOF LINE INTERSECTIONS/WAVES SUCH AS THE ONE MOVING ACROSS MONROE COUNTY IN ERN TN AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE ARE APPARENT AHEAD OF THE LINE...OVER SWRN VA. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. IF CONVECTION MAINTAINS CURRENT INTENSITY AND SPEED...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE...NEW WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND NC LATER THIS MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34008293 34008578 36628450 36638335 40208167 40157886 36638062 36638162  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 10:33:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 05:33:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311033.i4VAX5j25384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311031 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-311230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL/WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 350... VALID 311031Z - 311230Z SQUALL LINE MOVING ESEWD AT 45-50KT ACROSS CNTRL AL THIS MORNING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODEST PRESSURE RISES WITHIN TRAILING STRATIFORM COLD POOL REGION BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THE CONVECTION AND STRONG 50-70KT MID LEVEL REAR INFLOW JET OBSERVED ON VWP DATA FROM NRN MS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 350 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN... 32248834 33708831 34088376 32658376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 11:57:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 06:57:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311157.i4VBvvj01689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311156 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC PIEDMONT...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... VALID 311156Z - 311400Z OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND VIL VALUES AS EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A STRONG OUTFLOW BEHIND THE LINE WITH 30-40KT DIVERGENT WINDS AND A MESOHIGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC. LINE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERCEPTS GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. WITH DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOW BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN LIMITED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DEVELOPS WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34418037 34368236 35438125 36498036 37327991 37297829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 14:22:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 09:22:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311422.i4VEMOj06866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311421 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-311515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/FAR SRN MS/FAR SRN AL/SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311421Z - 311515Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN LA...FAR SRN MS...FAR SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...AND EWD INTO SWRN GA. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THIS AIR MASS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN AL WSWWD INTO SRN MS TO SERN LA. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A WSWLY 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29119057 30409152 30909146 31198935 31658786 32008368 29968381 29288716 29038919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 15:19:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 10:19:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311519.i4VFJpj04564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311518 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311518 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-311545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN GA/SRN-ERN SC/SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 311518Z - 311545Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN GA...SRN/ERN SC AND SRN NC. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL SC SWWD TO CENTRAL/SRN GA...OR 20 NW CAE TO 35 SSE MCN. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ATTM. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WIND PROFILES PER POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30548136 30498284 32278307 34318100 34847969 35157853 34457722 34287726 33547842 32488008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 16:48:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 11:48:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311648.i4VGmOj15999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311646 NCZ000-SCZ000-311715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SC AND NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 311646Z - 311715Z WW 352 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 17Z. AT 1630Z...VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW 352. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A STABLE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THESE BOUNDARIES...SUGGESTING ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WW. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33998023 34477983 34837897 35497833 34907833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 17:52:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 12:52:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311752.i4VHq8j16309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311750 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-311845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311750Z - 311845Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN INDIANA. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN WI...JUST NE OF GRB...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NWRN-SERN LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH A FAIRLY NARROW AXIS OF 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETREATING NWD WITH THE BOUNDARY. POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -18C AT 500 MB/ AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NERN IND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDING IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41278504 41348626 43758643 44968617 45108555 45038461 44918398 44158320 42918273 41988347 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:07:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:07:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311807.i4VI7jj23355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311806 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-311900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 353... VALID 311806Z - 311900Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DECREASED OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF WW WITH MORE STABLE OUTFLOW AIR. WILL KEEP WW IN EFFECT ALL AREAS HOWEVER...AS THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND CONTINUES EVEN WHERE THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT. THEAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CONTINUES OVER SRN AREAS OF THE WW WHERE SURFACE BASED AIR HAS NO INHIBITION AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE BELOW 50 M2/S2...SO THREAT IS MARGINAL. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29889162 31229167 31908303 30588304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:28:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:28:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311829.i4VITJj00955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311827 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-311930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN-ERN SC/PORTIONS SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 311827Z - 311930Z GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN GA...WHILE THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/SRN NC WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SC...NEAR 35 SW CHS...SWWD ACROSS SERN GA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWNDES COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SWRN PORTION OF WW 354 FROM ECHOLS CHARLTON COUNTIES INTO SRN-SERN GA THROUGH 20Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE E AND SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE... 30448305 31248309 31928133 32598069 33828056 34907829 32887829 31348137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:28:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:28:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311828.i4VISEj00431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311827 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-311930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN-ERN SC/PORTIONS SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 311827Z - 311930Z GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN GA...WHILE THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/SRN NC WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SC...NEAR 35 SW CHS...SWWD ACROSS SERN GA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWNDES COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SWRN PORTION OF WW 354 FROM ECHOLS CHARLTON COUNTIES INTO SRN-SERN GA THROUGH 20Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE E AND SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE... 30448305 31248309 31928133 32598069 33828056 34907829 32887829 31348137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:54:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:54:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311854.i4VIsZj13507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311853 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-311930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN VA INTO SRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311853Z - 311930Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN VA INTO SRN MD. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN VA SEWD ACROSS THE FAR SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE MID 70S F. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NWRN VA...30 N SHD. AIR MASS TO THE ESE OF THIS ACTIVITY RANGES FROM MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL VA TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN VA AND THE FAR SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. A BAND OF 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...WHILE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37937842 38897783 38787665 38097550 36637551 36497587 37037835 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 19:27:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 14:27:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311927.i4VJRcj05668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311926 TXZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN / E- CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311926Z - 312130Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA NWWD TO JUST W OF TYR TX. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO LOCATED FROM SRN AR SWWD ACROSS NRN TX...WITH OUTFLOW / STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION JUST SE OF SEP. A HEAT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JCT AT 19Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ALSO OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE IT IS VERY HOT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR STATIONARY FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING W OF AUS AS WELL...WHERE HEAT LOW IS CAUSING WINDS IN MOIST AIR TO BACK. WLY 30-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 32409646 32059550 31079406 30429392 29959411 29639524 30289666 30119764 29689807 30259896 31209879 32099828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 20:51:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 15:51:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312051.i4VKpMj19911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312049 MIZ000-312145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 312049Z - 312145Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS LOWER MI ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN WI SEWD TO SWRN MI/NWRN IND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /6000-8000 FT/...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41768476 45728650 45718357 41728202  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 22:29:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 17:29:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312232.i4VMWxj00716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312228 FLZ000-GAZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356... VALID 312228Z - 010000Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS WW AREA. LATEST DATA INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM ROUGHLY 40 SSW VLD TO 35 SE JAX -- SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WW AREA. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST / UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS UNSTABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 30 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH FAIRLY WEAK / UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS... DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...ANY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG W-E OUTFLOW -- ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME. ONE STRONG / ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS GRADY / MITCHELL COUNTIES IN SWRN GA EXTRAPOLATES TO LOWNDES COUNTY GA / HAMILTON COUNTY FL -- THE VERY NWRN MOST PORTION OF THIS WATCH -- AT 01/00Z. GIVEN THAT THIS WATCH EXPIRES AT 00Z...THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM MAY DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. ATTM...EXPECT STORM TO WEAKEN...AND THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30568293 31308119 30008119 29278294 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 23:00:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 18:00:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312300.i4VN0rj12692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312259 GAZ000-FLZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / SWRN GA / CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 358... VALID 312259Z - 010000Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN / ERN PORTIONS OF WW. BOWING LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD AT 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS SWRN GA. THESE STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIT ERN PORTIONS OF WW NEAR 01/00Z AS WATCH EXPIRES. SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION IN SRN PORTIONS OF WW AS CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ENTERING WRN ESCAMBIA COUNTY CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...THE CLUSTER WOULD REACH BAY COUNTY AROUND 01/01Z ASSUMING CURRENT STORM MOTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AND THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM...NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. ..GOSS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30408594 30678420 31778375 31808291 30328296 30038594 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 23:19:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 18:19:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312319.i4VNJoj21401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD / CENTRAL AND ERN VA / DC... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357... VALID 312317Z - 010115Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF WW. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS WW. HOWEVER...AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED UVV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WW AREA. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NERN KY / SWRN VA / WV...AS WELL AS WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA -- ALL WITHIN MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS. ASSUMING THIS CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS TIED TO INDIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IN MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW. ..GOSS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 39417753 37757467 36637541 37287640 37637742 37827879 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 06:01:30 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 01:01:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405060600.i4660RL31264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060559 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA....SRN MN....EXTREME WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060559Z - 060800Z TSTMS MAY INCRS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA/SRN MN...AND SPREAD ESE TO WRN WI THROUGH 09Z. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LONE TSTM CELL RECENTLY INITIATED NEAR SURFACE WAVE/WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN IA IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 35KT LLJ. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY AND CAPPED...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM...AND LOCAL/MESOSCALE MOISTENING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE RESULTING IN MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG FOR UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850-700MB. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE FORM OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS NEARLY NONEXISTENT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG SRN EDGE OF UPPER JET...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. LATEST 03Z RUC RUN SEEMS TO SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE IA/MN BORDER THROUGH 09Z...WHILE EARLIER ETA MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MORE LIMITED STORM COVERAGE. IF MCS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...INCREASING COVERAGE AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 05/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42559277 43159627 44079643 44599550 44899226 43399082 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 14:38:46 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 09:38:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405061437.i46EbgI17354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061437 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061436 MIZ000-061630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061436Z - 061630Z SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING LOWER MI. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS EXPANDING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SPEED MAX AROUND 700 MB. AS A RESULT...A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD...SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY STARTING ABOVE 700 MB AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED. 500 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -15 C AND LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8.5 C/KM WHICH WILL RESULT IN A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY AIR MAY FAVOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 05/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 44848600 45108548 45518519 45708476 45528393 45218339 44798330 44138354 43668389 43468407 43408458 43478597 43618658 44378647 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 18:24:11 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 13:24:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405061823.i46IN6I22212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061822 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061822 MIZ000-061945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150... VALID 061822Z - 061945Z IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WW 150 HAS DIMINISHED. NEW CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT WATCH. AS A RESULT...WW 150 WILL BE CANCELLED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...THE CAP SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND THE CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WHEN IT APPEARS THIS WILL HAPPEN...A NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR LOWER MI. ..BROYLES.. 05/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 42798618 44028621 43858326 42578320 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Fri May 7 01:40:15 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 20:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070139.i471d9432376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070137 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0837 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI/NERN IND INTO NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070137Z - 070300Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0130Z...GRAND RAPIDS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INVOF FRONT OVER CASS/ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES IN SWRN MI SWWD INTO ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN N-CNTRL IND. PROXIMITY 00Z DTX RAOB INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS... AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR BELOW MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z DTX AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41858619 42248507 41948279 41108246 40998383 40878529 41058600 WWWW From calvinfs at goshen.edu Fri May 7 03:05:59 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 22:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070306.i4736M412328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070305 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-070430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH EWD INTO FAR WRN NY AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070305Z - 070430Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR. OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WRN PORTIONS OF NY WWD INTO ERN/CNTRL LAKE ERIE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WHILE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING /HEIGHT FALLS/ FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...ERN BRANCH OF WLY LLJ COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE LIKELY PROVIDING NECESSARY ASCENT TO SUSTAIN THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO NERN OH AND NWRN PA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY /CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXISTS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41748257 42348101 42847898 41727829 41157939 40688143 40638250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 04:54:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 23:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070454.i474sV402138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070453 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-070630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA EWD INTO NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070453Z - 070630Z DISCUSSION AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED FROM SWRN IA NEWD THROUGH DSM INTO E-CNTRL IA AND NWRN IL. STRENGTHENING LLJ OBSERVED ON REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM CNTRL/ERN KS NWD/NEWD INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA IS LIKELY ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM STJ TO ENEWD ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO NRN IL N OF PIA AS OF 04Z. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG LLJ JET AXIS ARE YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM 750-700MB WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STRONG LATITUDINAL MID-LEVEL ISOTACH GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 500MB WINDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 20-25KTS OVER SWRN IA TO 50-55KT OVER NERN IA INTO NRN IL. THUS... IF ELEVATED STORMS CAN INDEED INITIATE...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE FROM CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LIKELY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41129462 42229405 42779201 42348934 41838840 41058878 40909058 40759214 40799407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 07:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 02:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070716.i477G2406360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070713 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-070815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH / NWRN PA / SWRN NY... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152... VALID 070713Z - 070815Z THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUES WITH A OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN AND CLOSE TO WW AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS LK ERIE ATTM GENERALLY N OF COLD FRONT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WARM ADVECTION APPARENTLY REMAINS SUFFICIENT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS -- TO ALLOW CONTINUED STORM REGENERATION. NONETHELESS...GIVEN GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNLESS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY -- OR DEVELOP / MOVE INTO WARM SECTOR WHERE WIND THREAT WOULD BE GREATER -- WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT A REPLACEMENT WATCH. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41698368 42537835 40917837 40308211 40968198 41418367  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 09:26:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 04:26:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405070926.i479QL404343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070924 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-071100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA / NRN IL... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070924Z - 071100Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN IA AND ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO ADJACENT NWRN IL ATTM. STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT ATTM LONGEVITY OF THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION AND ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE. LATEST DVN /DAVENPORT IA/ WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG / SEVERE STORMS -- PARTICULARLY IN SMALL N-S LINE NOW MOVING ACROSS SCOTT COUNTY IA AND INTO ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IL. AXIS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE PERSISTS N OF SURFACE FRONT NOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL IL / NRN MO...AND 25 TO 30 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT / UVV FOR STORM REGENERATION. WITH 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS STORM ORGANIZATION / ROTATION. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION...62 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM MUSCATINE COUNTY IA WITH SRN-MOST PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SEWD PROPAGATION TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS NEAR FRONT -- AND IF THIS SEWD DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE FURTHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 41459246 42479068 42418762 40828751 40829046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 11:39:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 06:39:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071139.i47BdO403427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071138 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-071315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153... VALID 071138Z - 071315Z STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WW 0153. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS AFFECTING AREAS IN AND CLOSE TO WW ATTM...WITH STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING GRUNDY AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES -- MOVING SEWD AT 40 TO 45 KT. STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- OCCURRING JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT...WHERE AXIS OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE IS INDICATED. WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL AND ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1 TO 2 OF HOURS -- AT WHICH TIME LEADING STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM GIVEN ANTICIPATED CONTINUATION OF STORMS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE / STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41569012 41608761 41228513 40478458 39838504 39888763 40439005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 14:29:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 09:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071431.i47EV9F12503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071429 DEZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-071600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/SRN PA/WV/NRN VA/MD/DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071429Z - 071600Z A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN PA AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS SRN PA. STEEP 0-3 KM LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C EXIST DUE TO SFC HEATING AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD AT 45 TO 50 KT...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40468227 40688154 40777990 40667837 40337651 40157576 39727537 39327551 38587574 38307699 38527901 38918208 39438248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 16:45:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 11:45:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071645.i47GjdX28120@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071644 ILZ000-IAZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 071644Z - 071845Z THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL THROUGH 20Z. AT 1630Z...A BACKBUILDING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED AXIS FROM 20S RFD TO 15N CID. STORM UPDRAFTS ARE ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING PROVIDED OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL WWD ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...AROUND 8 C/KM...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELEVATED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER...MORE LONG-LIVED CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO 2"/HR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD FOCUS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST DIMINISHING THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... 42269183 42389092 42208937 42098853 41988789 41578757 41028780 41288992 41499139 41809196 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 16:49:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 11:49:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071649.i47GnnX31300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071649 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071649 OHZ000-WVZ000-INZ000-071815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154... VALID 071649Z - 071815Z AN MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF WW 154. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF WW 155 BY 20Z. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN OH AND SRN IND. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN IND WILL SUPPORT THE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 40 KT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39548484 40008451 40348367 40588284 40418224 39878173 39418171 38958190 38758227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:18:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:18:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071718.i47HIfX19222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071718 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071717 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-071845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN PA...NY...DE...ERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071717Z - 071845Z A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN PA INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW155. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA. AN MCS IS MOVING ESEWD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INTO A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED FLOW AT 700 MB ADVANCING ESEWD TOWARD SERN PA AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT 45 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL CREATE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39047621 40547618 40257410 38897491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:25:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:25:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071726.i47HQFX24616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071725 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071724 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-071900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN PA...NJ...DE...ERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071724Z - 071900Z A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN PA INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW155. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA. AN MCS IS MOVING ESEWD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INTO A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED FLOW AT 700 MB ADVANCING ESEWD TOWARD SERN PA AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT 45 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL CREATE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39047621 40547618 40257410 38897491 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:49:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:49:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071750.i47Ho3X08673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071749 PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-071915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...WV...WRN MD...SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 155... VALID 071749Z - 071915Z AN MCS OVER OH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO WW 155 AND A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS OH NORTH OF A SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SRN OH. THE MCS IS LOCATED AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ASCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS ESEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL JET OVER IND AND OH WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND ABOUT 40 KT AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN A SWIFT STORM MOVEMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED AS SFC HEATING STEEPENS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY...BECOMING MORE SFC-BASED. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT CONSIDERING THE SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... 39888253 40278212 40497801 39757732 38837771 38668173 38558239 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 19:27:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 14:27:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405071928.i47JS5q12735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071926 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-072200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...AND FAR SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071926Z - 072200Z ERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION. AT 19Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN MO WWD INTO FAR SERN NEB AND WSWWD INTO N-CENTRAL KS. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS KS/MO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR CAPPED. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILE FROM OMAHA INDICATES A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE OF SWLY FLOW AT 2 KM FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB THROUGH 00Z. IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z. WITH VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES IN PLACE / 8-9 C/KM / THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO WRN IA AT 15-20 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40409584 40349692 40099829 40569849 41689852 42479837 43169814 43499756 43379450 40879402 40639534 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 21:35:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 16:35:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405072135.i47LZhq29086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072133 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-072300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0433 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-E-CNTRL IA EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072133Z - 072300Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR NEAR DBQ TO THE N OF SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL AS OF 21Z. DSM VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING AUGMENTED BY ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS SERN CANADA. WHILE LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON. ..MEAD.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42909168 43049072 42968881 42288757 41668764 41478946 41959136  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 22:18:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 17:18:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405072218.i47MIfq24292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072217 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-080015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...MD...AND DE...INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157... VALID 072217Z - 080015Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NRN VA...SRN MD...AND SRN/WRN PORTION OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 02Z. AT 22Z...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WAS CROSSING FROM NERN WV INTO NWRN VA...WITH MOTION 290/45-50 KT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE CELLS WERE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ORIENTED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN VA. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM IAD INDICATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ORGANIZED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SHOULD OCCUR WITH SMALL...FAST MOVING BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED BUT LONG-LIVED CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS LIKELY ACROSS NRN VA INCLUDING THE SRN AND WRN WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... 38347933 39077890 39687856 39397503 37957503 38187755 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 23:03:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 18:03:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405072303.i47N3nq16381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072302 VAZ000-MDZ000-080130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN VA AND LOWER ERN SHORE OF VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072302Z - 080130Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF WW 157 AREA ACROSS ERN VA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 2250Z...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS N-CENTRAL VA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON ITS SRN FLANK. STRONG REFLECTIVITY CORES AND SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO POTENTIAL ACROSS FAUQUIER AND CULPEPER COUNTIES IN VA SHOULD TRACK 310/35-40 KT...TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF THE WW 157 AREA /100MB MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG /. PORTIONS OF ERN VA MAY BE AFFECTED BY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 08/01Z...WITH CAROLINE AND ESSEX COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. EVOLUTION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED...BUT SMALL THREAT AREA OUTSIDE OF COUNTIES ALREADY INCLUDED WITHIN WW 157 MAY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 38247819 38147711 38077633 37707624 37337630 37377682 37527789 37587837 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 00:36:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 19:36:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080036.i480aXq31831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080034 SDZ000-080200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 080034Z - 080200Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING INTO W-CNTRL SD MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO PRIOR TO DISSIPATING BY 02 OR 03Z. CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CROOK COUNTY WY HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD AT AROUND 30KTS. 00Z UNR SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN SD WITH A SBCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE DRY AIR BELOW 600MB MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TSTM CLUSTER SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY 03Z AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR... 44820405 45330390 45730301 45200208 44610192 44200259 44010331 44200396 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 01:21:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 20:21:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080121.i481Lrq21823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080120 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158... VALID 080120Z - 080245Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 158 THROUGH 04Z. AS OF 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED WEAKENING TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS SRN WI INTO FAR NRN IL MOVING EWD INTO LAKE MI. EWD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN NEB/WRN AND CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS WEAKENING TREND. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MN SWWD INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN IA. SRN EXTENSION OF THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z OVER PORTIONS OF NERN NEB/SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA AS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING IS ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO THE LFC ON STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY WELL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IA AND SRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43529207 43098760 41648761 42089210 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 02:55:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 21:55:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080255.i482trq02898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080253 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080253Z - 080430Z RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0240Z...OAX/UEX RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER BOONE COUNTY W OF OLU. STRENGTHENING LLJ JET OVER SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE PLATTE RIVER IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB INDICATE STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 800MB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULAR STRONG... PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SERN SD INTO SRN MN ALONG NEWD-EXPANDING LLJ AXIS. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...STRONGER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..MEAD.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41619833 42999807 44079680 44859464 44829290 43869232 42969262 42149506 41349693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 05:26:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 00:26:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080527.i485RCq05995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080526 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080526Z - 080630Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE / SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN MN / NRN IA AND INTO SRN WI. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET HAS REMAINS W OF THIS REGION...JET SHOULD CONTINUE VEER AS PER LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. AS STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING LIFT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES / MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE / SPREAD EWD INTO THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK /NEAR 30 KT/...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A HAIL THREAT WITH WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM SWRN WI WWD ATTM...BUT AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE EWD AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX... 44659204 45168947 45168744 43098769 42559157 44039229 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 07:29:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 02:29:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080729.i487TSq28604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080727 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA / SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160... VALID 080727Z - 080900Z STRONG / SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA. WEAKLY ORGANIZED / ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NERN HALF OF WW IN N CENTRAL IA / SRN MN. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN EWD SHIFT IN GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TIME...WITH MAIN THREAT SLOWING SHIFTING INTO WI / WW #0161. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS NERN QUARTER IA FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND THE 08/09Z EXPIRATION OF WW. HOWEVER...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF THREAT INTO WW #0161 WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44259454 44559217 42099217 41899456 43219595 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 08:37:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 03:37:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405080837.i488bfq26194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080837 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080836 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA / CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 080836Z - 080930Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS STILL ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF WATCH WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS. ALTHOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF WATCH HAVE REMAINED LESS INTENSE...DESTABILIZATION IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS WW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD INTO E CENTRAL WI WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 44979214 45248737 43248745 42859213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 10:36:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 05:36:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081036.i48Aavq17913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081035 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA / SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... VALID 081035Z - 081130Z LIMITED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A DECREASING TREND WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER REDUCING DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS CONVECTIVELY UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WATCH TO ALLOW A FEW STRONG / SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST. BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT...NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED BEYOND THE 08/12Z EXPIRATION OF WW 0161. ..GOSS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43599222 44218962 44098745 43248745 42859213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 17:45:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 12:45:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081745.i48Hjuq30517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081744 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN MT...AND THE WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081744Z - 082015Z THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN MT...WITH STORMS MOVING ENEWD TOWARD WRN ND. LOCALIZED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 1730Z...A CLUSTER OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS FERGUS COUNTY MT...MOVING 230/45 KT. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT...THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NERN MT. LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...OF 30-40F...WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-18C AT 500MB/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AN ELONGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED BAND THROUGH 20Z. TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ND...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE AND SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45820216 44620202 43970248 43900345 44240384 45190437 46370605 46870671 47250785 48330805 48730756 48940641 48980560 48980482 48970355 47650295 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:28:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:28:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081928.i48JSiq19235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081927 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081927 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW THROUGH ERN NEB AND CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081927Z - 082200Z SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND CNTRL IA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY 22Z-23Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE ISSUED. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS THROUGH CNTRL IA WWD THROUGH E CNTRL NEB THEN SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SW NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS SERN NEB THROUGH SW IA. THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED IN THIS REGION AND THIS IS PROVIDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN STORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...AND THE CAP MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN AREA OF MID/UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE SPREADING INTO WRN NEB FROM ERN CO. ONE AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION IS ACROSS ERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA WHERE SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING A SOURCE OF ENHANCED LIFT. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE IN THIS AREA TOWARD EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE NEAR THE SW PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SW NEB WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER CAP. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL...STORMS THAT MOVE NEWD ALONG OR JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 42829212 41719220 41339359 41299483 41109711 40099960 40320055 41360004 42489820 43349442 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:52:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:52:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081953.i48JrEq30690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081952 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081951 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL SC...SE AND WRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081951Z - 082215Z WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS IN WRN NC SEWD THROUGH NRN SC. THIS BOUNDARY THEN INTERSECTS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN SERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THE SEA BREEZE AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGESTS ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE PULSE SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34467829 34668032 35288204 36188185 36098282 34828415 34438257 33317973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:55:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:55:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405081956.i48JuDq32136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081953 TXZ000-NMZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PANHANDLE...ERN/SERN NM...WRN/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081953Z - 082230Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20-23Z ALONG AN AXIS FROM 20SE DHT TO 40W INK. STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ISOLATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 1930Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES... DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND WEAK CONFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A SSWWD EXTENSION OF TOWERING CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN DHT AND AMA. THE UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS SRN TX IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS WRN TX /0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT/ ...WHICH MAY AID IN A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WEST OF UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY LIMIT EXTENT/COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE REGION. VERY STEEP SURFACE TO 500MB LAPSE RATES / 8-9 C/KM / AND MODEST WBZ HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING 30-35F AROUND PEAK HEATING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 35410326 36000222 35840153 33660177 30410299 30420452 32000461 34020396  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 20:20:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 15:20:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082020.i48KKwq11391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082017 NDZ000-MTZ000-082115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 082017Z - 082115Z INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE LINE IN NERN MT...ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 162. AT 2010Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM VALLEY COUNTY INTO SWRN MCCONE COUNTIES IN MT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY ENEWD AT 40-45 KT PASSING NEAR WOLF POINT AROUND 21Z. SPEED OF MOVEMENT...INCREASING REFLECTIVITY...AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 40F SUGGEST SEVERE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS LINE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS FAR NERN MT DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... 47030578 47690647 48070697 48800690 48920600 48940386 48520354 47550360 47350354 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 21:04:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 16:04:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082105.i48L5Dq00853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082100 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-082330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...NRN IND AND SW MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082100Z - 082330Z AREAS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE IND-MI BORDER WWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND CONVERGENCE COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ALONG PARTS OF THE BOUNDARY BY LAKE BREEZE EFFECTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL SPREAD ESEWD ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN MI INTO EXTREME NRN IND WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42448791 42168693 42218557 41928488 41378590 41448695 41778817 42278890  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:09:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:09:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082209.i48M9wq00383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082208 MIZ000-WIZ000-090015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN WI INTO LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082208Z - 090015Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. ONE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN MOIST LAYER RETURNING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THIS LIKELY WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43739009 44108877 44228732 44138544 43688368 42798268 42538444 42698649 42988843 42918949 43148998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:13:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:13:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082213.i48MDNq02350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082211 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... VALID 082211Z - 082315Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #162 REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AT 22Z...TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NERN MT...WITH LINE MOVEMENT 240/45KT TOWARD FAR NWRN ND. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN ND SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z. AIR MASS ACROSS N-CENTRAL ND IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WHICH MAY LIMIT EWD PROGRESS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF CURRENT WATCH AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS NWRN ND DURING THE NEXT HOUR FOR PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WATCH. ELSEWHERE...STRONG CELLS ACROSS NWRN SD ARE EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 35-40F SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AT 15-20 KT ACROSS MEADE AND WRN ZIEBACH COUNTIES IN NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR SERN MT AS UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER MORE UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE MT/NWRN SD AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 44340358 46700547 47020452 47880519 48440558 48950559 48950370 44350017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:29:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:29:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082229.i48MTdq09815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082228 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA...SW NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082228Z - 090100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. IN WAKE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST... SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH DEW POINTS RISING BACK TO NEAR 60F...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY...AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION AND PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ARE STRONG...AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42597960 42507885 41867851 41207869 40657897 39837921 39728012 39958085 40598067 41018098 41838136 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 22:46:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 17:46:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082246.i48MkQq17484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082245 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-090045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163... VALID 082245Z - 090045Z CONTINUE WW. ANOTHER WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MIGRATING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM...INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...AND VICINITY OF NORFOLK NEB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS THROUGH THE 01-02Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41649913 41979767 42569649 42829520 42849375 42349259 42319189 42219123 41789114 41569267 41249357 40889517 40809653 40789785 41449939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 23:57:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 18:57:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405082357.i48NvWq17029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082356 NEZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 082356Z - 090200Z CONTINUE WW. AS SUGGESTED BY EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST/NORTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO FOCUSING NEAR INTERSECTION OF PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH AND OLD CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...AND MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR GROWING HEAVY RAIN CORE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNBURST ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41119945 41309901 41409846 41429775 40659771 40299865 40329935 40879958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 00:17:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 19:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090018.i490I3q24956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090016 NDZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166... VALID 090016Z - 090215Z CONTINUE WW 166. AT 00Z...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BURKE COUNTY ND SWD INTO NRN HETTINGER COUNTY WAS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE AS WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION ACROSS WRN ND MOVING EWD. IR CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OWING TO STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ND...HOWEVER...LARGER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40F MAY ENHANCE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MUCAPE REMAINS SUFFICIENT /500-1000 J/KG / TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. STORMS WILL AFFECT THE MINOT AREA AROUND 01Z. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48970269 47530252 46510248 46060140 46049807 48989987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 00:55:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 19:55:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090056.i490u0q10211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090054 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-090300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB INTO SOUTHERN IOWA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...164... VALID 090054Z - 090300Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY CURRENT 02Z WW EXPIRATION. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY AROUND 03Z...STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA NEB AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY STRONGEST WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...AS UNSATURATED LOW/MID LEVEL AIR MASS ALLOWS SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLUTION OF SURGING COLD POOLS. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS BY LATE EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41389841 41599654 41919607 42189525 42019372 41979260 41049310 40799427 40419542 39889625 40049855 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 01:47:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 20:47:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090147.i491lsq00593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090146 MIZ000-090345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0846 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090146Z - 090345Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK HAS PROGRESSED OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 06Z. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF FLINT AND PORT HURON BY THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. WHILE FRONTAL INVERSION APPEARS TO PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SUFFICIENT CAPE EXISTS TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH SOME HAIL NEAR/JUST IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 42488299 42428421 42578499 42878554 43218557 43458504 43568409 43348289 43308249 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 02:18:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 21:18:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090218.i492IUq14045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090217 NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-090345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CENTRAL ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...168... VALID 090217Z - 090345Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEYOND WW 166 EXPIRATION TIME OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER CENTRAL SD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SCENTRAL SD WHERE A CLUSTER SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY MOVE OUT OF WW 168 BY 09/04Z...THEREFORE A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR SERN SD. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ABR INDICATES SUBSTANTIALLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST...WITH MUCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL ND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT HOUR AND WW 166 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09/02Z. FARTHER SOUTH...INSTABILITY AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA INTO FAR NRN NEB. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUFFICIENT INFLOW/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SCENTRAL SD SOUTHEAST OF WW 168. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS CLUSTER MOVEMENT...300/30 KTS WOULD TAKE THE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF WW 168 BY 09/04Z. AREAS SE OF WW 168 WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 43340200 44000162 45879999 46300054 46790039 47890015 48969991 48509785 44999727 43629726 42849833 42990167 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 02:56:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 21:56:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090256.i492ufq29385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090255 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090255 PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-090500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...SRN LWR MI...LAKE ERIE VICINITY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167... VALID 090255Z - 090500Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW UNTIL 05Z EXPIRATION. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED...AND NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. BROADER TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LEAD FEATURE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT UPSTREAM IMPULSE...AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT... WHERE FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY IS MINIMIZING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN CAPE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...ISOLATED INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43309056 43568945 43348739 42938512 42918299 43108096 43007942 41788039 41258253 41908567 41878812 42509059 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 03:45:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 22:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090345.i493jpq17813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090344 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...SE NEB...NRN MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 090344Z - 090545Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...BUT RISK OF GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL WILL PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE WILL END ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER. MUCH OF AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN OVERTURNED. AS A RESULT OF STABILIZING LAPSE RATES...INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 06Z. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD... 39909964 40309823 41189715 41439621 41579499 41339345 41299276 40689298 40229430 39869523 39489688 39229895 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 05:25:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 00:25:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090526.i495Q5q30848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082356 NEZ000-090200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164... VALID 082356Z - 090200Z CONTINUE WW. AS SUGGESTED BY EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST/NORTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEB. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO FOCUSING NEAR INTERSECTION OF PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH AND OLD CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY...AND MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR GROWING HEAVY RAIN CORE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL DOWNBURST ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... 41119945 41309901 41409846 41429775 40659771 40299865 40329935 40879958  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 05:35:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 00:35:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090535.i495ZRq02179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090016 INZ000-MIZ000-090215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... VALID 090016Z - 090215Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. BOUNDARY LAYER JUST SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE BREEZE...ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH INITIATED NEAR INTERSECTION OF BOUNDARIES MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH BEND. HOWEVER...WEAKENING TRENDS SHOULD COMMENCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX... 41768629 41848583 41688525 41318503 40968564 41138639 41438678  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 06:22:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 01:22:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405090623.i496N7q21484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090622 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-090645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / N CENTRAL KS / IA / NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169... VALID 090622Z - 090645Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/07Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT SOUTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION...SWD PROPAGATION CONTINUES TO SHIFT STORMS SWD AWAY FROM AXIS OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT SOUTH OF WW EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORM PULSES. THEREFORE...NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40259958 41329539 42139102 40189106 38009958 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 14:35:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 09:35:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091436.i49Ea1q06433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091435 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-091530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091435Z - 091530Z SRN LOWER MI...EXTREME NRN IND AND NRN OH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE MORNING UPDATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THIS MORNING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OH WWD TO NEAR THE IND/MI BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EXIST IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...SUGGESTING THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP PRESENT...STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY 18Z. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42848570 42038108 41128094 41248288 41848615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 15:21:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 10:21:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091522.i49FLxq26707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091520 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-091745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...WRN SC...WRN NC AND SW VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091520Z - 091745Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND FOOTHILLS AREAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN NC. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY NEAR GREENSBORO. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ROANOKE AND GREENSBORO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 35158420 36218239 37407981 36167891 34968207 34638373 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 16:13:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 11:13:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091614.i49GE3q17932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091612 MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-091845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WV...S-CENTRAL PA...CENTRAL/NRN VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD...WASHINGTON D.C. METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091612Z - 091845Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN PA/WRN MD/ERN WV DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WILL MOVE GENERALLY 280/20 KT. THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT 16Z...CIN HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN WV NWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED STORMS AND SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER THE MTNS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN VA...CENTRAL MD...AND S-CENTRAL PA TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUSTAINED BY SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 38917983 40097891 40147786 40037708 38937687 38387706 37827753 37537812 37417894 37878042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 16:48:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 11:48:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091649.i49GnAq02912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091648 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...FAR NERN IL...CENTRAL/SRN MI...FAR NRN IND...AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091648Z - 091915Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AT 1630Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI. THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS VERY NEAR TO THE STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MSN EWD TO THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SWRN LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THE FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM MKG TO FNT. MCV WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR SERN WI/NRN IL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ACARS DATA MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ORD INDICATES CIN IS NEAR ZERO. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND ENHANCED SHEAR WITH MCV MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED STORMS TAPPING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41528717 41768953 42948971 43698964 43908860 43808657 43688326 43128253 42198282 41928314 41278464 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 17:44:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 12:44:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091745.i49Hj6q29862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091743 PAZ000-091945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091743Z - 091945Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN AN E-W ORIENTED BAND. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 1730Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN AN E-W ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM 25 SE FKL TO JUST NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE. BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PA...AND AS THIS AIR MASS ADVECTS EWD...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS JEFFERSON AND CLEARFIELD COUNTIES IN W-CENTRAL PA. MODERATELY STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PA. WBZ HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS. ALSO...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON STATE COLLEGE VAD /30-35 KT IN 3-4 KM LAYER/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... 41537942 41497829 41447707 41357612 41307568 40967546 40577537 40227569 40167656 40167786 40257883 40417949 40577980 41097986 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 19:01:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 14:01:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091901.i49J1oq01673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091900 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-092130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...ERN SD...AND SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091900Z - 092130Z STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH NERN SD AND FARTHER SW INTO SWRN SD. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN MN NWWD THROUGH NERN SD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. UPPER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH ND AND SRN CANADA...SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KT. AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SE ND THROUGH NERN SD...AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MN. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 44229887 44779893 45519894 46429790 45679555 44599294 43979299 44059655 43499753 43479886 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 19:44:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 14:44:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091944.i49JiSq20799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091942 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091942 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091942Z - 092215Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO PARTS OF NW KS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SERN SD SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SW NEB. THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH ERN CO. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN SD. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND E OF THE DRY LINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD THROUGH NW KS. MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED DRYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN CO AND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO BETTER MOISTURE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NEB...ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS AREA SO MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB BOUNDARY MAY OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WITH THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE MOIST AXIS. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42309900 40270009 38580095 38310185 39540175 40490202 41720311 42430196 42900003  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 19:50:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 14:50:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405091950.i49Jomq23730@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091946 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL...FAR SERN WI...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...AND FAR NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... VALID 091946Z - 092115Z CONTINUE WW. AT 1935Z...TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. AN MCV IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SERN WI LAKE SHORE SWD INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW SEVERE CELLS AS STORMS CROSS CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 2130Z. EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG THIS HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BARRY COUNTY MI SSWWD TO CASS COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD AT 20 KT OR SO. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING IN ADVANCE OF EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41238791 43508795 44138259 41848260  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 20:08:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 15:08:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092008.i49K8vq32530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092007 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-092230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX...EXTREME SE NM...OK PANHANDLE AND SW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092007Z - 092230Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND SW TX...AS WELL AS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NE NM THROUGH SE CO. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX THROUGH SW KS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 29480286 32360449 33700453 34380364 35660284 37710204 36810075 33020301 29860186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 20:33:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 15:33:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092033.i49KXjq12325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092029 WIZ000-MNZ000-092200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AND E MN THROUGH W CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092029Z - 092200Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH ERN MN AND W CNTRL WI INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR SE MN THROUGH W CNTRL WI. THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND S OF A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN WI INTO SE MN. SUPERCELL STORM OVER S CNTRL MN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESEWD SUPPORTED BY LIFT AND MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY INFLOW ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST THIS STORM MAY BE EVOLVING INTO A BOW ECHO AND GIVEN 25F-30F TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS STORM..THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY... ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX... 44459005 44189205 44369423 45539291 45379173 45119005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 21:47:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 16:47:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092147.i49Llqq12945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092146 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-092245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...EXTREME NERN I AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092146Z - 092245Z MONITORING EXTREME NERN IA....NRN IL AND SRN WI FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED RECENTLY FROM 30 W OF DBQ TO 20 W MMO. THE CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH AN AIR MASS THAT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN WI. POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND SOME SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41248824 41349032 42349198 43359182 44159127 44248967 43778795 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 22:18:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 17:18:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092218.i49MImq25704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092217 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...FAR NRN IND...AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... VALID 092217Z - 092345Z CONTINUE WW. AT 22Z...CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN LAKE MICHIGAN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. CELLS WERE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD IN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW PER GRR AND DET VAD WIND PROFILES. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY USE THE MODERATE CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BETWEEN 2330-0000Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/NERN IL...WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN IA. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 41178824 42058825 42358731 42658675 43218637 43788611 44148259 41848259 41498586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 22:39:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 17:39:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092239.i49Mdtq01924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092238 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-100045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/W CNTRL WI...CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092238Z - 100045Z CONTINUE TORNADO WW 173 AND SEVERE WW 171. PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA INTO THE MINNEAPOLIS MN AREA...AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS EVOLUTION OF LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE...NEAR THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA...WHERE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD SPREAD INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY 10/00-01Z. OTHER INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG TRAILING UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE...BENEATH THERMAL RIDGE...SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SURGING COLD POOL WITH GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF MINNEAPOLIS INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 44199637 44199517 44709446 45289327 45929288 46489227 46629108 46048981 44939022 44319107 43679269 43459390 43389464 43169586 42679702 42499765 43559782 44039709 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 23:14:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 18:14:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405092314.i49NEpq16767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092312 NEZ000-100115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172... VALID 092312Z - 100115Z NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WWS 171/172 WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF SOUTHWEST/ WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED TO AROUND 90F ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING LARGE HAIL THREAT. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF WYOMING. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. EVOLUTION OF LARGE SURFACE COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT SURGES TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER LATER THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41380239 41780094 42069925 42599742 41449626 40439736 40209972 40450154  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 00:08:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 19:08:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100009.i4A099q05982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100008 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-100215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NERN MD...SRN NJ...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100008Z - 100215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SERN PA SEWD INTO SRN NJ/NERN MD/DE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 00Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS EXTEND FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY ESEWD INTO CHESTER COUNTY PA. STORMS ARE TRACKING GENERALLY 300/25 KT...GENERALLY ALONG A MODEST NW-SE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL PA INTO SRN NJ. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NERN MD AND PART OF THE DELMARVA. LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF MOST STORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS TAPPING BETTER AIR MASS ACROSS NERN MD MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z OR SO WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND. GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD MIGRATE INTO NERN MD/NRN DE/FAR SRN NJ. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39937769 40217750 40437692 40437632 40367593 40057553 39867531 39617508 39397515 39257537 39207589 39347662 39487746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 01:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 20:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100110.i4A1AXq30128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100109 WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...176... VALID 100109Z - 100315Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. INTENSE LEADING LINE OF STORMS HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE...WHERE IT INTERSECTS SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF MADISON. DESPITE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT...WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE RESTRICTED BY ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING IN WARM SECTOR...AND STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...IT APPEARS DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WASAU/WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF APPLETON WILL BE LIMITED. A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH LEAD CLUSTER OF STORMS. THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND NORTH/EAST OF THE LA CROSSE AREA INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN STRONGEST CELLS. THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS MEAN FLOW REGIME BECOMES WESTERLY...AND INTENSE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 44309462 44429374 44459276 44439149 45579119 46549177 46658959 45728840 45018807 43448870 43529038 43139302 43319419 43219505 43259567 43269637 43959574 44379484 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 02:05:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 21:05:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100205.i4A25Qq19432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100204 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0904 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LOWER MI...NERN IL/NRN IND AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175... VALID 100204Z - 100300Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOW BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN WW 175 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OH. THUS DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MESOHIGH. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NCENTRAL IND MAY POSE A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO NERN IND THROUGH 03Z...IF CELL MERGERS CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS BEFORE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 40988841 41578775 41638620 41958526 42208385 42038282 41428341 40958427 40958533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 02:44:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 21:44:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100244.i4A2iNq01927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100243 NEZ000-100445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...SRN...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177... VALID 100243Z - 100445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BECOME OVERTURNED. EXCEPTION TO THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE IMPERIAL/MCCOOK AREAS...WHERE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PERSIST. ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...FORCING ON NOSE OF 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOST INTENSE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW SURGING THROUGH THE GRAND ISLAND/KEARNEY AREAS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41189943 41409835 41869787 42339732 42399685 41869660 41089683 40489742 40149858 40129928 40369984 40840040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 03:21:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 22:21:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100322.i4A3MAq15772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100321 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CNTRL WI INTO SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176... VALID 100321Z - 100515Z RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LINE OF CONVECTION SURGING EASTWARD ON COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS BEEN SLOWEST TO WEAKEN NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHERE FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES ARE ENHANCED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREA INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF GREEN BAY BY 05-06Z...BEFORE MORE RAPID WEAKENING LIKELY ENSUES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT WITH TRAILING BAND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LA CROSS WI/ROCHESTER MN AREAS THROUGH 05Z. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43699396 44139277 44289178 44069064 44008995 44478905 44858881 45158873 44918781 44448732 43658829 43438933 43399272 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 04:29:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 23:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405100429.i4A4Tpq11971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100428 NEZ000-100530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB/N CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177... VALID 100428Z - 100530Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH 06-09Z...ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS/KEARNEY AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH BEYOND 05Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RISK FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS INCREASING IN SLOW MOVING TRAINING STORMS. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID... 40739966 41029915 41229835 41339789 41029746 40559742 40009836 40049907 40549972 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 17:44:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 12:44:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405101744.i4AHiEq28444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101743 MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-102015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101743Z - 102015Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN VA. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE FLOW ALOFT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY. MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... 39297748 38547705 38027833 38097933 39167833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 19:05:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 14:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405101906.i4AJ6Aq22123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101904 NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-102130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101904Z - 102130Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN WY BETWEEN 22-00Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. WW PROBABLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/NERN CO/WRN NEB PANHANDLE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WY AT 18Z WILL PUSH EWD THIS EVENING AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS NEWD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURFACE LOW /990MB/ NEWD INTO NWRN/NRN WY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB AS SURFACE WINDS TURN ESELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SERN WY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ BY 00Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME EXTREMELY SHEARED BY 00Z WITH 400-500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ONLY QUESTION FOR TORNADOES IS MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MARGINALLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...BUT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE AREA WHERE MOIST AXIS APPEARS TO BE ESTABLISHING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /2?+/ WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS. AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS E-CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 22-00Z...ANTICIPATE HIGH BASED CUMULUS TOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TO EVOLVE INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF FAR ERN/SERN WY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OF FAR NRN CO WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT IN NERN CO THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 40110512 42190607 43520669 44150660 44550652 44780581 44790500 44510431 44070424 43210395 41920355 40090310 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 19:15:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 14:15:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405101916.i4AJG6q29539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101914 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA AND WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101914Z - 102145Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NE OH THROUGH WRN NY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING FROM NE OH THROUGH NW PA AND WRN NY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW IS LIMITING THE 0-6 KM SHEAR TO GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42417912 43107737 43187587 42077582 40898068 41268151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 22:45:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 17:45:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405102245.i4AMjfq12912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102244 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102243 MTZ000-WYZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...ERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178... VALID 102243Z - 110045Z CONTINUE WW...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CENTER OF RAPID PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH DEVELOPED EAST/NORTHEAST OF RIVERTON A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...IS NOW SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AREAS EAST OF THE BIG HORNS...AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY THE 11/00-02Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL RETURNING...RAPID DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING NUMBER OF STORMS...THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CELLULAR IN NATURE. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING... AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45690881 46100796 45810602 45350520 44670435 43620407 41940421 41890475 42400586 43120662 44470705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 23:06:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 18:06:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405102306.i4AN6Oq26154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102305 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IN...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI...NW OH CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 102305Z - 110100Z WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO HUDSON/JAMES BAY...WHERE A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET NOSES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THOUGH STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FOCUS/FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND APPEAR TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATER THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..KERR.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 41578313 40908519 40418753 39998926 41078919 42508736 43248569 43518374 43628269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 23:12:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 18:12:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405102312.i4ANCJq29911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102310 COZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CO EAST OF FRONT RANGE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... VALID 102310Z - 110045Z CONTINUE WW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF CO...GENERALLY WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONT RANGE. STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY NEWD AT 10-15 KT. AT LOW-LEVELS...ESELY TO SELY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S/. ASSOCIATED STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT PER PUEBLO VAD WIND PROFILE. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...AND VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWER. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37590216 37550488 40950512 41000221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 00:43:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 19:43:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110044.i4B0i7q18692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110043 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-110245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES SWD INTO WRN TX AND ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110043Z - 110245Z SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. DISORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 0030Z...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE SWD INTO ERN NM/WRN TX CONTINUE WITH EMBEDDED STRONG REFLECTIVITY AND VIL CORES. STORMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED...HOWEVER...EFFICIENT REGENERATION OF CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F. STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...AND MOST UPDRAFTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS...BUT UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ON THE MESOSCALE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34500026 36840024 36780231 35290353 34090383 32890383 32470281 32710074  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 01:07:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 20:07:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110107.i4B17nq30756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110106 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT INTO NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...179... VALID 110106Z - 110300Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY CURRENT 02Z WW EXPIRATION TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS...NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/ WYOMING FRONT RANGE. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SLOW VEERING OF MID/UPPER FLOW ALONG/EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 06Z. AS DEEP SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING... RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SUPERCELL EAST OF DOUGLAS WY...AND SUPERCELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DENVER CO MAY DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES WEST OF INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 45760744 45790602 45300455 44240358 42760244 41900214 40470193 38250299 38750403 40970479 42270533 43030560 44120652 44930725 45370745 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 02:35:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 21:35:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110235.i4B2ZPq13653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110234 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-110400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0934 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NCENTRAL KS AND SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... VALID 110234Z - 110400Z SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT MAY NOW HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB IS POSSIBLE. LATEST 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND LBF INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700 MB. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SWRN KS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM MERGERS AND DEVELOPING/DEEPENING OF THE COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED WIND THREAT NEWD INTO THE NRN AND ERN HALF OF WW 180 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET TO OVER 45 KTS BY 06Z WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36910109 38040111 38590129 38730204 40030191 40039968 39989925 36899985 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 03:11:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 22:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110311.i4B3BFq30914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110308 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA/LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 110308Z - 110615Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES ESEWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN NJ INTO NYC METRO/WRN LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE CELL TRAINING IS ANTICIPATED. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX AND IAD INDICATED PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.30 INCHES OR ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS HAS AIDED IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH RAINFALL RATES UP 2 INCHES/HR WHERE CELL TRAINING OCCURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS OVER SERN NY HAS BECOME ORIENTED WNW-ESE FROM NERN PA TO JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AREA. FORECAST CELL MOTIONS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO 35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STORM INITIATION AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE THREAT INTO THE NYC METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE FEED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM... 40397412 40547535 41037585 41267590 41327519 41187412 40977378 40757358 40417397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 03:20:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 22:20:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110320.i4B3Kfq02551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110319 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110319 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...CO/WY FRONT RANGE...NEB PNHDL...WRN SD...SW ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181... VALID 110319Z - 110515Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW NORTHEAST OF 181 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. VAD WIND DATA INDICATES MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO VEER ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING INHIBITION IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ALONG/WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN WYOMING AND MONTANA/SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDERS THROUGH 06Z. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ON EASTERN EDGE OF CAP. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH SUPERCELLS BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...GGW... 45740586 46590508 46240359 44780313 42730313 42340345 41860357 40840391 41170410 41180470 42170489 43010505 44110541 44620573 45380585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 03:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 22:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110354.i4B3sVq18160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110353 NDZ000-MTZ000-110600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 110353Z - 110600Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BY 06Z. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF BILLINGS...AND THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY/DEVELOP INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT NEXT FEW HOURS. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS ACTIVITY IS BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...WITH CAPE GENERALLY OR THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...FORCING/INCREASING MOISTURE ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE AND MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES MAY AID EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...THOUGH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 47540815 48300691 48420380 47240359 46830559 46560720 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 06:30:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 01:30:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405110630.i4B6UBq21847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110627 SDZ000-NEZ000-110730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB AND MUCH OF SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... VALID 110627Z - 110730Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS NEB INTO CENTRAL SD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED LATER FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS.. STRENGTHENING LLJ/WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLUSTERS OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD WHERE ASCENT ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED STRUCTURES. SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WILL MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41400154 42780294 45080243 45139919 42149952  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 15:53:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 10:53:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111554.i4BFs7q27896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111553 RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NRN/CENTRAL NJ...SERN NY...CT...AND WRN RI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111553Z - 111830Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS ERN PA/NRN NJ/SERN NY/CT AREA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH STRONGER CELLS. AT 1530Z...STRONG DRYING IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS WSWWD ACROSS WRN MA INTO THE CATSKILLS AND ALONG THE NRN PA/SRN NY BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD TOWARD ERN PA/NRN NJ/NYC METRO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS ALREADY BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FURTHER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN A WSW-ENE ORIENTED FASHION ALONG THE FRONT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS REGARDING HOW INTENSE STORMS WILL BE. DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THE 12Z ETA DROPS SFC-6KM SHEAR FROM 20KT TO 10KT OR SO ACROSS THE REGION BY 21Z. HOWEVER... 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AT OKX AND CHH WERE AROUND 7 C/KM THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 18Z AND MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT THROUGH ERN PA/NRN AND CENTRAL NJ/NYC AREA/SRN CT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND STORM INTENSITY NEAR THE COASTLINE. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 41587450 41657376 41767262 41857197 41807168 41327160 41137158 40867229 40527325 40217419 40157480 40057621 41447608 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 17:06:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 12:06:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111706.i4BH6Zq22215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111704 WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-111930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OH...CENTRAL/NRN IND...AND SWRN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111704Z - 111930Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FROM CENTRAL OH NWWD INTO NWRN IND/FAR SWRN MI. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. AT 1645Z...BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF IND INTO CENTRAL OH. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WEST OF CMH WWD TO THE IND BORDER. THIS REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITH EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF OH WNWWD INTO FAR SWRN MI. THIS FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD INTO SWRN MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN NERN IND/NWRN OH/SWRN MI. ILN SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT YIELDS MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /10-20 KT/ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH REGENERATION OF CELLS ALONG CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND... 39868454 40188533 40668621 41088631 42168614 42128475 41568443 41278393 41048292 41018224 41078129 41098062 40288061 39738086 39538137 39578229 39598338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 18:33:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 13:33:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111833.i4BIXJq22156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111832 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD THROUGH W CNTRL MN NW AND N CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111832Z - 112030Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN SD AND INTO NW NEB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NE SD. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN SD FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW IN NW SD. A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH WRN SD INTO NW NEB. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE ACROSS NW SD. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF SD INTO NEB. MOIST AXIS HAS RETURNED NWWD THROUGH NEB AND SD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM ABERDEEN STILL SHOWS A STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S AND CAP WEAKENS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE MAINTAINING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER ERN NEB AND SD THROUGH WRN MN. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES. BEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NE SD INTO W CNTRL MN. FARTHER W ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH WRN NEB ...HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41900289 42710328 43540305 44530350 45690295 46220023 46059590 45139578 44089951 42300123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 19:02:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 14:02:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111902.i4BJ2Vq12900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111900 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111900 NEZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SW NEB...WRN KS...NE NM THROUGH THE TX AND OH PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111900Z - 112100Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...THE CAP WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. LATEST PROFILER DATA SHOW MODERATE SSWLY FLOW THROUGH 6 KM BUT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST PRIMARY MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY FROM WRN KS THROUGH SW NEB. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 35270349 38590246 40660205 40890089 35500098 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 19:33:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 14:33:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405111934.i4BJY6q04319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111933 TXZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111933Z - 112130Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SW TX IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD SUPPORTED BY MOIST UNSTABLE SELY LOW LEVEL INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS WEAK AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION OR UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... 30110213 29790271 30780375 32130202 31310042 29910100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 20:02:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 15:02:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112002.i4BK2Uq26583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111958 TXZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S AND SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... VALID 111958Z - 112100Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF BOW ECHO MOVING EWD THROUGH SE TX. BOW ECHO STORM OVER SE TX JUST NW OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA REMAINS ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PERIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE STORM IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40 KT AND BASED ON THIS MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA NEAR 2030Z. MUCH OF THE INFLOW TO THIS MCS STILL COMING FROM THE MOIST UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER THE WRN GULF...SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DESPITE MOVING INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY EARLIER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... 28639643 28939610 29359598 29779615 29979558 29749507 29449500 29119518 28729582 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 20:04:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 15:04:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112004.i4BK4kq28400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112000 TXZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S AND SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183... VALID 112000Z - 112100Z THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF BOW ECHO MOVING EWD THROUGH SE TX. BOW ECHO STORM OVER SE TX JUST NW OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA REMAINS ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE STORM IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40 KT AND BASED ON THIS MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA NEAR 2030Z. MUCH OF THE INFLOW TO THIS MCS STILL COMING FROM THE MOIST UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER THE WRN GULF...SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DESPITE MOVING INTO AIR THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE BY EARLIER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP... 28639643 28939610 29359598 29779615 29979558 29749507 29449500 29119518 28729582  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 22:05:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 17:05:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112205.i4BM5Iq14830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112204 SDZ000-NEZ000-120000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD INTO W CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184... VALID 112204Z - 120000Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR DEEP SURFACE LOW ...NORTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE INTO AREAS EAST OF ALLIANCE NEB...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED WITH STRONG HEATING. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL IN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET LIFTING OUT OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS. EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW BY THE 12/00-02Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS PIERRE AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH. INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF PIERRE ...AS SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42140235 43020194 43830166 44510059 44820017 45089983 45099915 44079875 42579983 41740086 41860190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 22:21:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 17:21:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112221.i4BMLiq25144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112220 NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB/WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185... VALID 112220Z - 120015Z CONTINUE WW. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STILL WEAK ALONG DRY LINE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO/KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BEGIN TO VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AFTER 12/00Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA... 41080136 41430094 40970018 39020036 37410024 36960125 37340176 38090178 39290163 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 22:38:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 17:38:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112238.i4BMcnq03123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112237 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NE SD/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112237Z - 120030Z CONTINUE WW 187...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA MN/ ABERDEEN SD...INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF PIERRE. BOUNDARY HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS IT SLOWLY SURGES SOUTHWARD...ENHANCING LIFT OF MOIST POTENTIAL UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MOST CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE BEING UNDERCUT BY FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS IS WHERE CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRIDING SHALLOW COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH PRIMARY ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS THIS EVENING. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE/NORTH OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45449941 46059935 47339824 48249744 48329540 47119474 45929614 45249784 45069871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 23:03:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 18:03:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112303.i4BN3wq18018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112303 LAZ000-TXZ000-120000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... VALID 112303Z - 120000Z MOIST SELY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO REGION AHEAD OF BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SERN TX. CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 30 MPH INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WITH MUCAPE CAPE AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE FORECAST. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC TO 6 KM ARE SWLY AT 25 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AT THIS TIME WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE CURRENT 00 UTC EXPIRATION TIME. ..BRIGHT.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29539530 29809492 30459480 30819375 29869336 29159510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 23:54:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 18:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405112354.i4BNspq14147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112353 SDZ000-NEZ000-120200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112353Z - 120200Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 187...AND NEW WW 189. THREAT FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12/03-04Z. UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS UNDERWAY IN MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH/EAST OF DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR PIERRE. WARM SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE BASED CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL...WHILE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL ACROSS THE CHAMBERLAIN/WINNER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AROUND 12/01Z. THIS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AS 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE/ HEIGHT FALL CENTER ALREADY SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ..KERR.. 05/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 44749985 45159933 45559846 45819735 45129690 44139712 43429784 43139862 42919927 42810060 44199983 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 00:20:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 19:20:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120020.i4C0KNq27422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120019 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120019 TXZ000-OKZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... VALID 120019Z - 120215Z MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRY LINE OVER THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES FROM THE VICINITY OF GUY TO ABOUT 25 MILES SW AMA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTHWARD IN WW. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLEARLY DEPICTED IN 18 UTC ETA FORECAST OF DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE. THE PASSAGE OF VERY WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 500 MB. MODELS INDICATE SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS BY 03 UTC...PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELLULAR OR SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE /CURRENTLY AROUND 2200 J/KG PER RUC FORECAST/ SUPPORTS CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..BRIGHT.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 32990288 34970296 35640233 36820209 36830006 32980011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 00:23:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 19:23:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120023.i4C0Ngq29884@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120022 MNZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND INTO N CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190... VALID 120022Z - 120215Z CONTINUE WW. MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NEAR INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHARP SURFACE FRONT...NOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERGUS FALLS MN. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...BUT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...ABOVE VERY SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT OF TORNADO THREAT...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/GROW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH RISK OF TORNADOES CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BEMIDJI. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 46929649 47659613 48099552 48269394 47729357 46849428 46679515 46479598 46569654 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 01:03:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 20:03:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120103.i4C13wq21159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120102 NEZ000-COZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120102Z - 120300Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN LEFT EXIT REGION BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AREA OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO AREAS WEST OF NORTH PLATTE NEB...AND DRY LINE IS RETREATING TOWARD THIS AREA. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS...NORTH/EAST OF ALLIANCE INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF SIDNEY. WEAK COLD FRONT ALREADY NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT STRONGER CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41160281 41940241 42750129 42630060 41540075 40680100 40090147 40090219 40330254 40470296 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 02:21:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 21:21:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120222.i4C2M7q32201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120218 TXZ000-OKZ000-120315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK PANHANDLE/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... VALID 120218Z - 120315Z LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE RETREATING WEST...WITH THE ONLY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF WW 188. THE STORMS OVER BEAVER AND ROBERTS COUNTY ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY...AS THEY MOVE INTO AN AREA WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE...THE STORMS OVER KENT/KING COUNTIES IN THE SERN PORTION OF THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...ALSO ARE WEAKENING PER THE LATEST LUBBOCK RADAR. WITH CONVERGENCE DECREASING...THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12/03Z. ..TAYLOR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 33020181 33590293 35650300 36770290 36820197 36790068 36300012 34450008 33250007 33000078  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 02:40:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 21:40:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120241.i4C2f0q10296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120239 SDZ000-NEZ000-120445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL NEB INTO SERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189... VALID 120239Z - 120445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE GUST FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN/EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IN WAKE OF LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL...TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. COOLING HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE LEE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERCUT CONVECTIVE BAND...LIKELY LIMITING SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. BAND WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE EAST OF ALLIANCE INTO THE VALENTINE AREA...UNTIL MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES THOUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... 41800211 42830108 43159940 43619847 43009791 41869839 41369909 41020071 41080182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 03:09:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 22:09:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120309.i4C39tq25154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120308 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191... VALID 120308Z - 120515Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW GUST FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL GENERATED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER...JUST AHEAD OF SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE CONVECTION HAS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS...WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM AND MOIST INTO AREAS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW NEAR FARGO. THUS... POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER...BEFORE CONVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 45699756 46319713 46669685 46679550 45629545 44369577 43719663 43479782 43929831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 04:22:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 23:22:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405120423.i4C4N1q29579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120422 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120421 LAZ000-120615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 120421Z - 120615Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY SHIFTING ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. RECENT INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S LIKELY SUPPORTED MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRED NEAR RAIN CORE FOR EVOLUTION OF WEAK SMALL COLD POOL...WHICH IS SURGING EAST AROUND 30 KT...TOWARD LAFAYETTE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS SOME HAIL IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS REDEVELOPING UPSTREAM ABOVE COLD POOL. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGGED TO WEAKEN/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS MOIST ENVIRONMENT EAST OF LAFAYETTE. ..KERR.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... 30669304 30859232 30689158 30309110 29649082 29179103 29249164 29449237 29389297 29939329 30259318 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 16:30:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 11:30:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405121630.i4CGUuq02755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121629 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-121830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121629Z - 121830Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING WITHIN 60+F SURFACE DEW POINT AXIS AHEAD OF FRONT NOW SUPPORTING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INTO NERN IA/SERN MN. 12Z SOUNDING FROM MSP INDICATED LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER STEEP...WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. HOWEVER... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SBCAPES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO LINES AND/OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY WARRANT A WW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42379345 43259376 44689315 46009226 46189128 45339038 43819048 42499093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 19:24:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 14:24:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405121924.i4CJODq04330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121922 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 121922Z - 122045Z NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WISCONSIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE. ..BOTHWELL.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42749392 46969241 46898801 42669008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 20:25:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:25:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122025.i4CKPQq18518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122023 KSZ000-OKZ000-122230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122023Z - 122230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS KS FROM NORTH OF TOP TO JUST SOUTH OF DDC WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN DDC...P28 /MEDICINE LODGE/ AND GAG. DRY LINE IS NOT WELL DEFINED OVER WRN OK ATTM...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG...THOUGH 18Z SOUNDING FROM DDC MAINTAINS A STRONG CAP OVER SWRN KS. HOWEVER...FURTHER HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THIS CAP AND LATEST ANALYSES SUGGEST CAP IS ALMOST ERODED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN KS. 18Z RUC AND ETA RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS RAPID QPF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z. STORMS MAY INITIATE SOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NERN KS...WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO CONTINUE SWWD ALONG THE FRONT OR IN A SEPARATE REGION NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST INTO SWRN KS/FAR NWRN OK SUGGESTING TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THIS REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 39639686 39709564 38789506 37249727 36689950 37000089 37890090 38469874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 20:38:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:38:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122038.i4CKcUq26976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122037 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WI ..EXTRM SERN MN AND NERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 122037Z - 122200Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHEASTERN IOWA. PORTION OF THE LINE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING SEVERAL BOW STRUCTURES IN THE RADAR SIGNATURE AND THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET ACROSS THE LINE FROM EAST TO WEST. EXPECT INCREASED WIND THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH ..BOTHWELL.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42689407 47089205 47018799 42639025 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 21:42:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 16:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122142.i4CLgWq07168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122141 OKZ000-TXZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0441 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122141Z - 122315Z MONITORING AREAS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITH THE NEXT HOUR. A DOUBLE STRUCTURE DRY LINE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF GAGE SSWWD TO NEAR CDS/LBB AND ANOTHER FROM EAST OF CSM TO LTS TO NEAR ABI. ALTHOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...IT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TO SSELY IN THE MOIST AIR. THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ONLY AT 20-30 KT ...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS MOVING IN FROM WRN TX/NM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..IMY.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35000009 35869974 36219841 36389767 32599909 32570011 33120079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 22:23:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 17:23:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122223.i4CMN4q32461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122222 MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-122315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0522 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... VALID 122222Z - 122315Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 192 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EWD INTO ERN WI/WRN-MID UPPER MI THROUGH 02Z. GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF ADDITIONAL THREATS...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO NERN IA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. THE SHEAR IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH SUPPORTS LINEAR ORGANIZATION...AS IS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET OVER WI/UPPER MI SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD MOVING BOW SEGMENT OVER NRN/CENTRAL WI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WEAKENING INSTABILITY BEYOND 02-03Z SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE MARGINAL GIVEN TREND FOR WEAKENING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT 20-30 KT EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME OR SLOWLY DECREASE. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43148804 42819036 42809209 44149096 44968982 45998951 46908896 47128861 46648659 45358666 43558777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 23:16:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 18:16:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405122316.i4CNG3q01199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122314 KSZ000-COZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122314Z - 130015Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF ERN CO AND WRN KS. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN CO ARE SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW INTO SERN CO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY INCREASING WWD. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OVER SERN CO DURING THE LAST HOUR WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UP TO 50 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN KS. ..PETERS.. 05/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37750041 37460127 37780327 38180380 39550394 39930293 39660046 39090024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 00:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 19:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130010.i4D0ALq30543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130008 KSZ000-COZ000-130115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SW KS...NW OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 193... VALID 130008Z - 130115Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS INTO NWRN OK. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS AT THE INTERSECTION OF SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE/QUASI-STATIONARY KS BOUNDARY FROM BARBER COUNTY TO PRATT/COMANCHE COUNTIES...AND NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT TO ERN PORTION OF CENTRAL KS AROUND MARION COUNTY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-55 KT AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100 MB MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/ IN THE WARM SECTOR EXTENDS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SW KS. ALTHOUGH A STORM EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF WW 193 OVER MARION COUNTY...WEAK VIL VALUES SUGGEST STORM IN THIS AREA ARE STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT ADJACENT TO WW 193...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY. THUS... PORTIONS OF ERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW IF ACTIVITY CAN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37750041 37460127 37780327 38180380 39550394 39930293 39660046 39090024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 01:05:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 20:05:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130105.i4D15Cq28186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130103 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/FAR SRN MS/FAR SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130103Z - 130200Z ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH 03Z ACROSS FAR SERN LA TO FAR SWRN AL. ACTIVITY WILL EITHER MOVE OFF THE LA COAST BY THAT TIME OR WEAKEN EWD INTO STABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN AL. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG TWO COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SWRN AL SWWD TO NRN JEFFERSON PARISH LA THEN WWD TO NEAR LCH. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE SSEWD MOVING BOUNDARIES IS AIDING IN SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY IS STABILIZING WITH TIME...BUT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. MOIST LOW-MID LEVEL ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND GUSTS TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ALONG 15-20 KT MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..PETERS.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... 29879078 30409029 30308936 30858866 30788811 30118822 29168892 28948933 29039015 29339064 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 01:06:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 20:06:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130106.i4D16iq28741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130104 OKZ000-TXZ000-130230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... VALID 130104Z - 130230Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SEGMENTED DRYLINE STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM BECKHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OK TO KING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TX...AND THEN FROM AROUND STONEWALL COUNTY TOWARD FISHER COUNTY IN NWRN TX. AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 50 MB MLCAPE VALUES ABOUT 4000 J/KG PER RUC ANALYSIS AND 00 UTC OUN RAOB. ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF WW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELL STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER OK...AS SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35 KTS BY 03 UTC. LACKING A LARGER SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE BEYOND 03 UTC OVER OK PORTION OF THE WW. ..BRIGHT.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32240081 33180059 34289985 34849971 36159938 36229781 36059768 32259889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 04:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 23:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130456.i4D4uUq17187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130455 KSZ000-OKZ000-130700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196... VALID 130455Z - 130700Z PREVIOUSLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE NOW EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A STORM CLUSTER AS OUTFLOW SURGES SWD FROM THE CLUSTER INTO NRN OK...AND THE STORMS FARTHER E DEVELOP INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOW ECHO. A 40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO FEED NEAR 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN OK INTO THE STORMS ACROSS SRN KS...AND THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...BACK-BUILDING STORMS ACROSS S CENTRAL KS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE SAME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SUPERCELLS EARLIER THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36559670 36389764 36289835 36629880 36939894 37369878 37749798 37989666 38229615 38939597 39079514 38349503 37389509 36899510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 08:14:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 03:14:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130814.i4D8EFq07825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130812 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 196... VALID 130812Z - 130915Z EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN MCS THAT IS SPREADING INTO WRN MO AND NERN OK. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EAST OF THE WW ACROSS HENRY/ST CLAIR COUNTIES IN MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT PROPAGATES EWD...HOWEVER ONLY ISOLATED HAIL REPORTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS THUS A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION INTO BACK SIDE OF MCS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN KS WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38669700 37959583 38079467 38689411 38369348 37129412 36459555 36599705 37459825 38379862 38969802 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 08:55:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 03:55:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405130855.i4D8tUq25263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130852 TXZ000-131015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ERN TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 130852Z - 131015Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX... LLJ/WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO ECNTRL TX AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN TX. THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS AIDING THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVER SERN TX. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION WITHIN MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS OF SOME CONCERN IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES WERE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT THINKING IS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND INCREASE IN DEPTH WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADING ACROSS ERN TX AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ..DARROW.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29749750 32579612 32099407 29659451  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 14:56:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 09:56:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405131456.i4DEu2q23043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131454 TXZ000-131630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197... VALID 131454Z - 131630Z INTENSE MCS CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH...FROM BURLESON...LEE...AND BASTROP COUNTIES...WWD AND THEN NWD INTO NWRN TX. STRONG CONFLUENT INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST BUT OVERALL COMPLEX MOVING LITTLE. UPDRAFTS ROOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM ERN TRAVIS COUNTY ACROSS NRN BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ARE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO HIGH VALUES OF 0-1KM SRH DUE TO 40-50KT LLJ. FORCING...INSTABILITY AND LOW LFC ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30239425 29589779 30719785 31339423 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 15:22:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 10:22:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405131521.i4DFLxq09951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131520 OKZ000-TXZ000-131715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN...CNTRL...AND NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131520Z - 131715Z TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER A RATHER LARGE REGION FROM NWRN TX ACROSS SWRN... CNTRL...AND NERN OK. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE NOON FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE... WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN TX ACROSS NWRN AND NCNTRL OK. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN/NCNTRL OK COULD DEVELOP LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES BEFORE BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE COLLISION ACROSS CNTRL OK WAS RESULTING RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH STORMS ON THE FRONT LATER TODAY WITH LARGE MCS RESULTING. POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH TIME FROM NWRN TX ACROSS NCNTRL OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 05/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 33439795 32939913 33310137 34220034 35529930 36499750 36959643 36079573 34229593 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 22:07:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 17:07:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405152206.i4FM6wo12550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152205 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152205Z - 152330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT 01Z/ FROM NRN MD NEWD TO MA/SRN NH. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VT SWWD ACROSS ERN NY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO WV. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. VAD WINDS FROM CENTRAL PA TO NRN VT INDICATE 35-40 KT WSWLY WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 2-4 KM. THESE WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH 20-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MD/DE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL PER 18Z RUC...THUS ANY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ..PETERS.. 05/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 43487122 42997071 41987104 41647161 41227319 40837358 40167401 39327464 38727519 38707647 39007758 39747726 40617637 41207540 41937478 42697330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 22:39:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 17:39:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405152239.i4FMdeo29498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152238 TXZ000-NMZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NM AND FAR W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152238Z - 160045Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST TROUGH 01Z. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE E SLOPE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER W OF MRF. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ADVECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR W TX AND SE NM...WHICH HAS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND 15 KT ESELY SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SWD/SEWD AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NRN MEXICO. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT OR LONG-LIVED. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND MODEST PW VALUES SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. ..THOMPSON.. 05/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31650637 31980626 32340603 32730593 33090560 33050496 32740480 31690470 31320437 30850348 30560343 30350430 30410476 31230591 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 22:59:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 17:59:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405152259.i4FMxBo05574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152258 NDZ000-SDZ000-160030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS ND/SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152258Z - 160030Z ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS FROM CENTRAL ND SWD INTO CENTRAL SD. 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING GENERALLY N-S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FROM 60 NW DVL TO 20 NE VTN...AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ND AND NWRN SD. A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE DISCRETE STORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE BEING FED FROM THE WSW AS THEY MOVE ESEWD ATOP A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS BEEN INHIBITED FROM DESTABILIZATION BY CLOUDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY FROM ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY SOURCE...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL SPATIAL/TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL /THROUGH 01-02Z ACROSS SD/...PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER REGIONAL RADARS ACROSS ND. ..PETERS.. 05/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 47770001 47779873 46329809 45769809 44459839 43449900 43530018 46090040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 18:15:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 13:15:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405161815.i4GIF0o23333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161813 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN...EXTREME NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161813Z - 162015Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...AND PERHAPS NWRN IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SD/MN MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ATOP FRONTAL INVERSION... ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND SWD MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING SURFACE-BASED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. WATER VAPOR...PROFILER/VWP DATA...AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE EMERGING OVER ERN CO. THE LEADING DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO HAVE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NWRN NEB INTO SERN SD. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL WIND MAX...ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN NEB. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SRN NEB WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE ZONE OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND FUEL PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF LARGE HAIL...EFFECTIVE/CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER NORTH OF THE FRONT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS SERN SD INTO NERN NEB...SHOULD PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING AND RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 42229653 41569853 41499926 42310018 44519944 44979856 45129686 44589584 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 20:05:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 15:05:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405162004.i4GK4uo14674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162002 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162002Z - 162130Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCRS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE REGION SHORTLY. DRYLINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED LAST 2 HOURS OVER ERN CO AND WAS MIXING EAST TOWARD WRN KS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM WITH LATEST RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. EXPECT CU FIELD SOUTH OF GLD TO DEVELOP INTO TSTMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK LINEAR FORCING WOULD FAVOR DISCRETE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 40340211 40860178 41120027 40669960 37310045 37200181 38490226  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 23:06:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 18:06:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405162306.i4GN6Bo01618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162304 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207... VALID 162304Z - 170030Z BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...EVIDENT FROM GOVE COUNTY KS NNEWD TOWARD BBW AS OF 23Z. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF DRYLINE FARTHER S. LINE OF TSTMS BETWEEN HARLAN COUNTY NEB AND TREGO COUNTY KS WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WITHIN 1-2 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. AREA FARTHER E -- TOWARD RSL/CNK/BIE...IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE/LEE CYCLONE BETWEEN LBF-ANW...DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ROUGHLY ALONG MCK-EHA LINE. SFC LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO WW 208 GIVEN STRENGTH OF NERN NEB PRESSURE FALLS. EXPECT DRYLINE TO MOVE LITTLE OVER MOST OF WW EXCEPT FOR EWD DRIFT IN NEB. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EVIDENT ATOP RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS -- JUST BEHIND DRYLINE...MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 50S F SFC DEW POINTS AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR. MEANWHILE...300-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH EVIDENT OVER WRN KS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN DISCRETE TSTMS SUCH AS THAT OVER GOVE COUNTY. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS DIABATIC COOLING COMMENCES IN PRE-STORM MOIST SECTOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37020235 39090206 39160142 41630106 41619879 37039961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 23:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 18:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405162356.i4GNuHo23305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162355 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN NEB...SERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 208... VALID 162355Z - 170200Z SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS WW WILL MOVE NEWD WITH CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- WITH WIND/HAIL DAMAGE POSSIBLE -- AND BOW ECHO EVOLUTION. SEVERAL TORNADOES AND ROTATING WALL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED PAST HOUR IN HOLT/SHERMAN COUNTIES FROM SEPARATE SUPERCELLS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE WITHIN TRIANGLE BOUNDED BY BBW-LBF-ANW. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. AS CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH REGION...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST INVOF WARM FRONT AND IN ADJACENT PORTIONS WARM SECTOR. 500-900 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH APPEARS IN PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH 50-60 KT SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER. MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG. 50-60 KT LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 40369926 41329930 42799928 42979926 43469639 40909637 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 00:28:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 19:28:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170028.i4H0Sfo04938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170027 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND SERN SD CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 170027Z - 170330Z HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- LOCALLY APCHG 3 INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER OF TWO SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NERN NEB. MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL REPRESENTED BY WW 208 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND REGIONAL RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST ABOUT 1 INCH PW...HOWEVER DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOCUS 50-60 KT LLJ INTO THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING S-R INFLOW AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY. SLOW MOVEMENT OF TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGERS WILL AUGMENT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OF BOTH CONVECTIVE AREAS -- FIRST FROM BOONE TO CUSTER/DAWSON COUNTY AND SECOND FROM KNOX TO LOUP COUNTIES -- IS CONDUCIVE TO ECHO TRAINING. BOTH CLUSTERS CONTAIN SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND NEWD FROM PRESENT POSITIONS TOWARD OLU...YKN AND OFK AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41389644 41189697 40979919 40939965 41169953 41629900 41839859 41929867 41939910 41899937 41999940 42659845 43139736 43209697 43099672 42749662 41619635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:09:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:09:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170109.i4H19Ro24985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170107 NEZ000-KSZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL KS...SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209... VALID 170107Z - 170230Z POTENTIALLY DAMAGING BOW WITH BOOKEND VORTEX SIGNATURE HAS MOVED DIRECTLY OVER RDA FOR HASTINGS WSR-88D...AND IS MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT TOWARD FILLMORE/THAYER/SALINE/JEFFERSON COUNTIES. IF THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS IT WILL AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN BIE-LNK BY ABOUT 2Z. ADDITIONAL LEWP/BOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH WILL EFFECT PORTIONS KS N OF I-70 OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS. FOREGOING AIR MASS SUPPORTS SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES 300-500 J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38749922 40479922 40909641 39169642 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:23:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:23:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170122.i4H1Mlo31115@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170122 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170121 MNZ000-IAZ000-170315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0821 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170121Z - 170315Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN MN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN MN THIS EVENING OWING TO NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUGHLY SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM PQN TO ULM TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES METRO. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. PROGRESSIVELY LATER THIS EVENING AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...ISOLD LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY HAZARD. SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KTS PER WOOD LAKE PROFILER/ AND DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /E.G. 8.0 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE IN 00Z OAX SOUNDING. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43609596 44189614 45239562 45559333 44759287 43879263 43439315 43359486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:59:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:59:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170159.i4H1x4o16895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170157 KSZ000-COZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207... VALID 170157Z - 170330Z ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE SCHEDULED 3Z EXPIRATION. ZONALLY ORIENTED LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- WILL DRIFT SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SCOTT/LANE/NESS/HODGEMAN/FINNEY/GRAY COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH GCK-DDC CORRIDOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ABOUT 2 INCHES/HOUR. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS SFC-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT. 40-50 KT LLJ EVIDENT OVER REGION IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND 00Z DDC RAOB...ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO ALIGNMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE AND YIELDING UP TO 60 KT S-R INFLOW. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN MCS OVER AREA WITH MUCAPE ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG AND LARGE/LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 37020231 39020203 38930117 39189922 37009961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 02:27:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 21:27:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170227.i4H2Reo31176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170226 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-170500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...ERN NEB....WRN IA....EXTREME NWRN MO...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170226Z - 170500Z SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED/EPISODIC AS BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN PORTION WW 208 SWD INTO ERN WW 209 -- MOVES EWD ACROSS MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS WRN IA/SWRN MN AND PERHAPS EXTREME NWRN MO. ANOTHER WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY GIVEN PRESENT DOWNWARD REFLECTIVITY/IR CLOUD TOP TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED MOTION OF CONVECTION INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE POSSIBLE. 45-50 KT LLJ WILL CONTINUE IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER WITH MUCH OF THIS FLOW PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND...S-R FLOW IS WEAK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...TOP...ICT...DDC...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40369926 41329930 42799928 42979926 43469639 40909637 38749924 40399920 40919639 39169640 43519641 43919617 44479476 44129432 43049389 42009425 40469493 39459545 39189638 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 04:53:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 23:53:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405170453.i4H4rYo03238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170451 KSZ000-170645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170451Z - 170645Z CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM PAWNEE/STAFFORD COUNTIES TOWARD ICT AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. FCST MCS FORWARD-PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE ESEWD MOTION 20-30 KT AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...INDICATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS. VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 45-55 KT SSWLY LLJ OVER THIS REGION...WHERE ETA SHORT-TERM PROGS INDICATE MESOSCALE MAXIMA IN BOTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 850 MB LEVEL. THESE PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH E OF LONGITUDE OF ICT AFTER 06Z. ACTIVITY BEHIND INITIAL LINE WILL BE MOVING OVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS STABILIZED BY DIABATIC COOLING THEN BY OUTFLOW FROM INITIAL BAND...SO STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH LEADING ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH SUCCEEDING CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... 37489776 37599839 37889906 38009942 38119951 38329948 38409917 38409870 38349826 38189741 37999715 37799706 37639711 37499721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 15:24:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 10:24:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171524.i4HFOFo06081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171522 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171522 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...NORTHEAST IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171522Z - 171745Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WI/IL SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IND/WESTERN LOWER MI SHOW RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS /0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT/ FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH AN EVOLUTION TOWARD SMALL BOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 42238730 43428611 44478517 44508449 42998357 41298459 40318558 40168622 40188744 40418870 41328836 41758810 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 17:43:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 12:43:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171742.i4HHgto12959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171741 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHWEST IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171741Z - 172015Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA/WI. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN 1-3 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN WI INTO WESTERN IA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. CURRENT SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42649216 43519079 44438976 46048804 45518687 43318784 42618847 42188949 41819134 41899212 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 18:11:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 13:11:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171810.i4HIAso01696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171809 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND...NRN KY...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171809Z - 172015Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH/KY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TCU/CBS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF IND/KY AND WESTERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IL...AND WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS/ SUGGESTING PRIMARILY MULTICELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS MAY MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 39338700 40818567 40958379 39378278 38438339 37788574 37508752 38508748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 18:44:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 13:44:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405171844.i4HIiNo26052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171842 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-172045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171842Z - 172045Z ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA. ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8.0 C/KM IN 700-500MB LAYER/ AND ELEVATED MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY... SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9K FEET SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 42109439 41499601 40649904 40559966 41650009 42459683 42919510 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:08:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:08:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172008.i4HK8Jo20199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172005 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...NORTHWESTERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 172005Z - 172130Z SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI NEAR DETROIT...AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI FROM KENT TO BAY COUNTIES. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN MID LEVEL ROTATION...AND ARE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MI FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD FROM WATCH INTO NORTHEAST LOWER MI. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN WI NORTH OF GRB MAY TRACK ACROSS THE LAKE AT 40 KNOTS AND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MI BY 22Z. PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI MAY REQUIRE A WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 45828452 45008308 43528259 41798339 41358487 41598639 42348610 43908517 44308631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:12:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172011.i4HKBuo22192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172008 KSZ000-NEZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS/FAR SE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172008Z - 172245Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP/BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NE KS/FAR SE NEB INTO CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INVOF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CNTRL/NCNTRL KS NEWD INTO NE KS/FAR SE NEB...WHERE FRONT INTERCEPTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 60-65F SFC DEWPOINTS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONTINUALLY WEAKENING SFC BASED INHIBITION IN THIS CORRIDOR...COINCIDENT WITH AGITATED CU FIELD PER LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH TIME...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SWWD INTO INITIALLY GREATER CINH/NEAR TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SW KS. MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/LENGTH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 37000118 37020153 37740167 38890150 39779938 40629764 41359613 38849552 37759738 37099921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:57:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:57:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172057.i4HKvlo21144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172052 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-172245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172052Z - 172245Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN MO...LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CBF TO N OF DSM TO NEAR ALO AT 20Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LITTLE SURFACE BASED CINH /BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z DVN SOUN ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 39099458 39469489 39829511 40379555 41389573 42069381 42519204 41469143 40209162 39479299 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 21:26:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 16:26:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172126.i4HLQCo08257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172122 KSZ000-COZ000-172315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172122Z - 172315Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ISOLATED CELL HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY LINE IN EASTERN CO. THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER RIDGE. THIS STORM MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER/STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FARTHER EAST. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE FOOTHILLS FROM WEST OF DEN TO COS...IN AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL. AREA WITH GREATEST RISK OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF COLD FRONT FROM COS - LHX - LAA. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39610475 39240367 38860276 38580211 38000200 37300218 37680449 38250522 39320553 40250568 40290512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 21:48:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 16:48:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172148.i4HLmYo23306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172146 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-172315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOWER MI...NORTHWEST OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... VALID 172146Z - 172315Z CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE THUMB OF LOWER MI...AND INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUD STREETS ACROSS NORTHERN IND AND WESTERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION...LACK OF UPPER FORCING...AND APPARENT LOW LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO NORTHERN IND WILL LIKELY LIMIT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WATCH AREA. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 210 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION AT 00 UTC. ..HART.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41358475 42058491 43108471 44068466 44498384 44218301 43358242 42718253 41838339 41378372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 22:15:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 17:15:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172215.i4HMFJo10211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172214 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172214Z - 180015Z ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. TSTM DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE CONDITIONAL ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INVOF DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES CU/TCU ALONG NNE-SSW ORIENTED AXIS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. MODIFIED 20Z RUC SOUNDINGS FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL CINH /BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WITHIN WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG AMIDST WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST AXIS. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KTS/ SUGGESTS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED/ LIMITED...HOWEVER CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. ..GUYER.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 36870145 36980086 36930019 35770014 34330017 32700076 31610158 31770297 33020308 33930284 34840176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 22:51:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 17:51:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172251.i4HMpQo00874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172250 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172250 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-180015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OH...NWRN PA...UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... VALID 172250Z - 180015Z ...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA/UPSTATE NY. CURRENT THINKING IS WW WILL NOT BE EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LOOSELY ORGANIZED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...SWWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW INTO CENTRAL OH. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD INTO REGION CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING LESSENS SEVERE THREAT. WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED IF CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40888223 42518018 43007857 41397926 40638053 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 23:46:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 18:46:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405172345.i4HNjqo31784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172344 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-180045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172344Z - 180045Z ...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED... A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NERN IA/SWRN WI/NWRN IL. WITHIN THIS LARGE CANOPY OF CONVECTION...A MVC SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER CLAYTON COUNTY IA...MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...AND MOST LIKELY HAIL-PRODUCING ELEMENTS ARE LOCATED ON SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MCS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE. ..DARROW.. 05/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43329113 43718861 42898764 42218807 42259090 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 01:01:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 20:01:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180100.i4I10ro04917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180059 KSZ000-OKZ000-180300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212... VALID 180059Z - 180300Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLD TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...REMAINS ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 212. ONGOING RUSSELL/LINCOLN/ELLSWORTH COUNTY SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE TORNADIC THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN MIDST OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/HELICITY INVOF FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE SWWD INVOF AND/OR SW OF DDC TOWARD COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT/SFC LOW PER NEGLIGIBLE ML PARCEL CINH EVIDENT IN 00Z DDC SOUNDING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE -- ESPECIALLY ENHANCED INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY -- WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY. INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40+ KTS/ THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 212 THROUGH 03Z...CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. PROGRESSIVELY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY -- NAMELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 212 -- MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 36910190 38930191 39509678 37509681 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 01:22:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 20:22:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180122.i4I1MHo15552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180120 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213... VALID 180120Z - 180215Z LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS MAY YET DEVELOP FROM SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO BEFORE LIFTING NEWD INTO DEVELOPING MCS. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40299635 42079236 41449136 40229292 39399576 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 04:39:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 23:39:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180438.i4I4cto19393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180438 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180437 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-180500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NWRN IND...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214... VALID 180437Z - 180500Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER LOWER MI... WELL DEFINED MVC...LOCATED OVER LAKE MI...CONTINUES ITS ENEWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 35 KT TOWARD OCEANA COUNTY MI. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY 500J/KG. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED MCS STRETCHES FROM THIS CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORT CENTER...SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE AT TIMES PULSED ALONG THE TRAILING LINE. BROAD WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO BACK SIDE OF THIS MCS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... 43998642 44618436 44238337 43088391 40848911 40919066 42278831 43528641 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 04:50:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 23:50:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180449.i4I4njo23930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180448 NEZ000-KSZ000-180715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 180448Z - 180715Z LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN A NARROW E-W BAND ACROSS SRN NEB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE PARCELS HAVE ASCENDED ISENTROPICALLY TO SATURATION NEAR 800 MB. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF A 35 KT LLJ FROM WRN OK INTO KS. EXPECT ASCENT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SAME AXIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING ENEWD FROM CO TOWARD SW NEB/NW KS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES...AND REPEAT CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. ADDITIONALLY...MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM...AND 25-30 KT OF SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40349650 40259747 40189816 40089869 39919969 40110016 40479998 40659922 40729802 40739718 40659626 40329640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 05:42:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 00:42:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405180542.i4I5gbo15409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180541 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180541 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-180745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 180541Z - 180745Z PORTIONS OF NERN IL...NRN IND AND SRN MI ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL. IF DATA BEGIN TO SUGGEST TRENDS FOR INTENSIFICATION...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ORGANIZED MCS FROM PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IL. A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR...ONE MOVING EWD INTO WRN LOWER MI AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TIME OF DAY...BUT RUC PFC DATA SHOWS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. VWP DATA SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FROM 40 TO 50 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM. THESE KINEMATIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCVS WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS. IT ALSO APPEARS THE BOW ECHO MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ABOVE SWD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NW OF CHICAGO. ..DIAL.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN... 41168919 42778511 42148342 40898823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 15:28:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 10:28:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181528.i4IFS2o30250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181526 ILZ000-MOZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE MO INTO CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181526Z - 181800Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND 18-19Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS INCREASING THEREAFTER. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION BECOMES FOCUSED BENEATH INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS WEAKENED AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL SHIFT ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS GENERATED FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE ADVANCING EASTWARD AT AROUND 30 KT. BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...BOUNDARY APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND EAST OF THE HANNIBAL/QUINCY AREA INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ST. LOUIS...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO 80S. AS CAPPING SLOWLY WEAKENS ACROSS THIS AREA...FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES NEAR MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST...SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG COLD POOL/MESO HIGH. AS SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION STRENGTHENS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS LIKELY WILL INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39439218 39789134 40489052 41349003 41628886 41348796 40638758 39128844 38508971 38559128 38589254 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:55:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:55:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181655.i4IGtWo02508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181654 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH WRN PA WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181654Z - 181800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE NOW IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER OH INTO WRN PA...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND SWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OH...AND NEAR LAKE BREEZE OVER FAR NWRN PA AND WRN NY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL OVER OH...BUT STRENGTHENS INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE ACROSS WRN NY AND PA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39508190 40508264 42637823 40307726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:57:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:57:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181656.i4IGuho03244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181655 OHZ000-INZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181655Z - 181900Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN IND INTO WRN OH. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND UNLESS MORE PRONOUNCED LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLOW OVER THIS AREA REMAINS IN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND EAST...WITH 20-25 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM LAF ENEWD TO NEAR GSH WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...LACK OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DESPITE LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED. ADDITIONALLY...20 KTS OF O-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH A LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 39738741 40248751 40668742 41278586 41268442 40558358 39578405 39338569 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:57:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:57:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181656.i4IGuxo03352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181654 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH WRN PA WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181654Z - 181800Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS. SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE NOW IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE OVER OH INTO WRN PA...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND SWRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OH...AND NEAR LAKE BREEZE OVER FAR NWRN PA AND WRN NY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL OVER OH...BUT STRENGTHENS INTO THE 35-45 KT RANGE ACROSS WRN NY AND PA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39508190 40508264 42637823 40307726  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181658.i4IGwRo04431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181655 OHZ000-INZ000-181900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181655Z - 181900Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN IND INTO WRN OH. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND UNLESS MORE PRONOUNCED LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLOW OVER THIS AREA REMAINS IN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND EAST...WITH 20-25 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM LAF ENEWD TO NEAR GSH WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...LACK OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DESPITE LINEAR ORGANIZATION ANTICIPATED...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED. ADDITIONALLY...20 KTS OF O-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH A LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 39738741 40248751 40668742 41278586 41268442 40558358 39578405 39338569  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 17:05:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 12:05:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181705.i4IH5Po09334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181704 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY INTO NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181704Z - 181800Z WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN NY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF LAKE BREEZES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON HEATING IS NOW SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES OVER THIS REGION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR OVER THIS REGION /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT/ ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING. AS STORMS INCREASE...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42357758 43697665 44967365 43497335 42037373 40877593 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 17:16:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 12:16:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181715.i4IHFso17673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181714 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-181915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...NRN/WRN MD...D.C AND FAR NERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181714Z - 181915Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN WV ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE 1-2 HRS OVER NWRN VA AND WRN/NRN MD. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RECENT VWP DATA FROM CHARLESTON WV HAS BEGUN TO AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WV. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION OVER NRN VA/WRN AND NRN MD WITH LATEST OBAN SUGGESTING AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE FROM SERN VA INTO NRN VA/WRN MD. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THIS AREA IT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE POSING A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER PA/OH...WITH 20-25 KTS OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5 KM. THUS OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX... 37567704 37737929 38367996 39157907 39577844 39387678 38367633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 18:45:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 13:45:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181844.i4IIido18010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181843 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-182045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN ID AND SWRN MT/NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181843Z - 182045Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ID MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY PROGRESS ENEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ID. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NERN ID AND SWRN MT/NWRN WY MAY INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21Z. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING TREND OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ID AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. MID LEVEL WIND SPEED MAX OVER ERN ID...WITH VWP DATA FROM POCOTELLO SUGGESTING AROUND 50 KTS AT 6 KM...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM NERN ID INTO NWRN WY/SWRN MT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THIS REGION IS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY /100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE/. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... 42801506 43561559 44101540 44531443 45241265 45671107 45550973 44670948 43581008 42861170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 18:56:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 13:56:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181855.i4IItwo25810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181854 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-182030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN PA NJ FAR SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181854Z - 182030Z WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IF ACTIVITY OVER WRN PA INCREASES OR STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN PA. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80F. THIS IS NOW SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR INTO ERN PA AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THOUGH CURRENT SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL /20-30 KT FROM SFC-6 KM/...APPEARS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY WARRANT WW THROUGH AROUND 02Z. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39377914 41077906 41837351 39667415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 19:20:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 14:20:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181920.i4IJKIo10951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181917 NEZ000-WYZ000-MTZ000-182115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN WY AND SCENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181917Z - 182115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM NCENTRAL INTO SERN WY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN POSING A SEVERE THREAT WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AFTER 21Z. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN WY/SERN MT...WHERE WAVE CLOUDS WERE NOTED. AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BIG HORN/WIND RIVER AND LARAMIE MTNS HAVE HAD SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING. THIS HAS LED TO MINIMAL CIN NOW OBSERVED ALONG WITH TOWERING CU SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS IMMINENT IN THESE AREAS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER WRN WY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...STORM ROTATION WILL LEAD TO GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER UNLESS MARGINAL INSTABILITY CAN IMPROVE THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 42650782 43520901 44350932 45360842 45320616 43450442 41620400 41370518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 19:24:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 14:24:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181923.i4IJNfo13579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181922 KSZ000-182115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181922Z - 182115Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. NEED FOR WW STILL APPEARS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. MID-LEVEL WARMING/HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN FURTHER HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING NORTH OF THE CHANUTE/EMPORIA AND HUTCHINSON AREAS...INTO VICINITY OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT...ROUGHLY NEAR/NORTH OF RUSSELL/MANHATTAN AND KANSAS CITY. WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. FORCING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD THE 19/00Z TIME FRAME. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39369762 39589696 39629592 39169498 38729507 38379568 38479660 38509781 38559856 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 19:40:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 14:40:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405181940.i4IJeVo26898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181938 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181938 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215... VALID 181938Z - 182145Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 19Z SURFACE DATA NEAR/EAST OF SPRINGFIELD IL. ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NEAR CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL SHIFTING NORTH OF ST. LOUIS...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH 21-22Z. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAIN...AND NEW SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO THE DECATUR IL AREA. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 39829003 40188934 40568778 39148750 38338908 38209059 39249036 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:04:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:04:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182004.i4IK43o11534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182002 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-182200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IN...OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216... VALID 182002Z - 182200Z CONTINUE WW. CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PERHAPS AIDED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SHIFTING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY..CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY EVOLVING NEAR FINDLAY OH SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...BETWEEN ZANESVILLE OH AND PITTSBURGH PA...NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE AS SMALL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH EVOLVES BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. UPSTREAM...CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT... 40688719 41018613 41008421 41018340 40748187 40318046 39788083 39388217 39728326 40088553 39888696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:44:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182044.i4IKifo09593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182038 NYZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK STATE...NRN PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 182038Z - 182245Z CONTINUE WW. SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW AROUND 1500 J/KG SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY AREA. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED NORTH/EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS MAY SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT/ INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW NEAR/WEST OF THE UTICA AND ITHACA AREAS. ENHANCED BY 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43157597 43327510 43617442 43567381 42887349 42097394 42317540 42587669  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:47:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:47:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182047.i4IKlbo12319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182043 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-182215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN VT AND NH WRN MA NWRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182043Z - 182215Z AREA WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO HEATING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER ...CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AND STORMS TO THE WEST OVER NY HAVE YET TO STRENGTHEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND UNDER SSWLY LLJ LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED ERN EXTENT OF MODERATE SBCAPE AXIS TO SPREAD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG CELL IS NOW MOVING INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VT. HOWEVER... STORMS ACROSS NY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAILED TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. IN ADDITION...WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY FURTHER HINDER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CAPE/SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44367323 44377122 43367121 41977183 41907315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:29:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:29:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182129.i4ILTRo12445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182128 KSZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182128Z - 182330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ICT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR IF DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CIN WAS WEAKENING TO THE NW-NE OF ICT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARED TO BE MERGING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. ELSEWHERE CIN WAS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS EVIDENT BY WAVE CLOUDS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG PER THE 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION CAN OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37459619 37329768 37139868 37279881 37579890 37989829 38099751 38259643 38189530 38099525 37849515 37489551 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:31:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:31:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182131.i4ILVFo13513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182129 TXZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182129Z - 182330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM THE CDS AREA SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. MARGINAL NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS NEAR 100/50 OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROMM 500-1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR FST. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL AND DIURNAL NATURE WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31440268 32220254 33620174 34620055 34680020 34460002 33950010 30980222 31070285 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:31:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:31:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182131.i4ILVSo13664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182128 KSZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0428 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182128Z - 182330Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ICT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR IF DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOTED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CIN WAS WEAKENING TO THE NW-NE OF ICT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARED TO BE MERGING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. ELSEWHERE CIN WAS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS EVIDENT BY WAVE CLOUDS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG PER THE 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION CAN OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37459619 37329768 37139868 37279881 37579890 37989829 38099751 38259643 38189530 38099525 37849515 37489551  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 21:33:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 16:33:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182132.i4ILWjo14427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182129 TXZ000-182330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182129Z - 182330Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM THE CDS AREA SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. MARGINAL NATURE AND SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS NEAR 100/50 OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROMM 500-1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR FST. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL AND DIURNAL NATURE WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED POTENTIAL. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31440268 32220254 33620174 34620055 34680020 34460002 33950010 30980222 31070285  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 22:26:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 17:26:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182225.i4IMPpo19854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182224 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-NHZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN PA...NY...SRN VT/NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 182224Z - 190030Z SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING OVERALL IN MOST OF WW...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN BAND FROM DELAWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES NY ENEWD OVER PORTIONS SRN VT AND SRN NH. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND WW 217 MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AS ANTICIPATED. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THERMAL AXIS FROM NRN NJ UP HUDSON VALLEY TO NEAR GFL...AND MOIST AXIS PARALLEL BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER E REACHING MAX OF 68 F SFC DEW POINT OVER SRN VT. RUC SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR THIS OPTIMAL OBSERVATION YIELDS APPROXIMATELY 1200 J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH 500-1000 APPEARS PREVALENT OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM AREA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER EWD MOISTURE RESULT IN LOWER THETAE IN STORM INFLOW LAYER. MEANWHILE...A FEW TSTMS MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF NY WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...GYX...BOX... 41087903 41527908 43097669 43617464 43797330 42057331 43747321 44237183 43727100 42907160 42187244 42037322 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:10:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182310.i4INAOo16245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182309 INZ000-ILZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IL...INDIANA...OH...NRN WV...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215...216... VALID 182309Z - 190045Z SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT REDUCTION OF SBCAPE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF THESE WWS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE AND/OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 00Z. N-S BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND NRN KY...AND HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DISORGANIZATION TREND IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND LESS THAN 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL. POST-CONVECTIVE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL TO FORCE ASCENT...THEREFORE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FARTHER E ACROSS SRN OH/SRN INDIANA/NRN WV...AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER IS EVIDENT WITH 20 KT OR LESS FLOW IN 500-300 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 38318915 39418907 39979071 40099067 40848901 41158743 38648745 38878740 40148742 40248604 40388543 40528525 40748519 40988490 40988453 40098301 40208225 40528165 40708154 41058106 41097926 39317929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:16:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:16:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182316.i4INGXo19609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182315 COR INZ000-ILZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IL...INDIANA...OH...NRN WV...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215...216... VALID 182315Z - 190045Z CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT REDUCTION OF SBCAPE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF THESE WWS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE AND/OR LONG-LIVED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 00Z. N-S BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND NRN KY...AND HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DISORGANIZATION TREND IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DURING PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND LESS THAN 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL. POST-CONVECTIVE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL TO FORCE ASCENT...THEREFORE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FARTHER E ACROSS SRN OH/SRN INDIANA/NRN WV...AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EVIDENT WITH 20 KT OR LESS FLOW IN 500-300 MB LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 38318915 39418907 39979071 40099067 40848901 41158743 38648745 38878740 40148742 40248604 40388543 40528525 40748519 40988490 40988453 40098301 40208225 40528165 40708154 41058106 41097926 39317929 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:28:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:28:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182328.i4INSbo28820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182327 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182327 MOZ000-KSZ000-190130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NWRN/WCENTRAL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182327Z - 190130Z THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 01Z. VIS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ORGANIZING ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE SW OF THE KC METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OLD MCS COLD POOL ACROSS NWRN MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RECENT HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WV IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THIS AREA ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALONG AND NORTH OF SHALLOW FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38129613 38299662 39169637 39969462 39909395 39469344 38709317 38289341 38089368 37939418 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 23:51:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 18:51:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405182351.i4INp3o10051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182349 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-190215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE...NRN MD...NERN VA...DC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182349Z - 190215Z LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING AT 2330Z FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY PA SWD TO HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH ABOUT 3Z. MAIN THREAT IS GUSTS THAT ARE SUB-SEVERE -- BELOW 50 KT CRITERIA LEVEL -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF INTERMITTENT DAMAGE. WW NOT EXPECTED. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS NEAR PEAK ATTM. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE CURRENTLY...WITH APPROXIMATELY 500-700 J/KG DCAPE. EXPECT DCAPE TO WEAKEN AS SFC COOLING CONTINUES...HOWEVER LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS. CAPE ALSO SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY IN INFLOW LAYER...WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK -- I.E. LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...WITH GENERALLY UNIFORM SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 KT THROUGH 300-800 MB LAYER. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED EVENT. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39187887 40187647 40277558 40047468 39737448 39167476 38827572 38687747 38647858 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 02:19:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 21:19:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405190218.i4J2Iuo24506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190217 MOZ000-KSZ000-190415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0917 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 190217Z - 190415Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER PORTIONS NWRN MO...AND WILL SPREAD/SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MO BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR TBN WNWWD TO SRN-MOST FRINGES OF MKC METRO AREA -- THEN SWWD THROUGH EMP TO NEAR P28. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 6Z THEN BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NWD THEREAFTER. GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT WHERE PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC. REGION IS ON NERN EDGE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500-1700 J/KG OVER MKC AREA...DIMINISHING NEWD. 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES 13-14 DEG C DEW POINTS JUST UPSTREAM. EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB FLOW THAT SHOULD INCREASE TO 25-35 KT -- TO MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS REGION AS LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N OF SFC FRONT AND SPREAD ESEWD...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RUC PRECIP GUIDANCE FROM PAST 2-3 RUNS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 38209293 38689450 38659541 39329534 39819479 40169413 40229332 39759213 39029167 38379197 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 06:54:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 01:54:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405190653.i4J6reo01411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190652 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-190945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 190652Z - 190945Z THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN/E CNTRL KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLESS STORMS CAN BECOME MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING...IN WHICH CASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MIGHT INCREASE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO WWD THROUGH S CNTRL KS. TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE E-W FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN EWD ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ON WRN EDGE OF THE MCS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES ARE TRYING TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE WOULD BE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM. ALSO SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP FARTHER S. ..DIAL.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39187887 40187647 40277558 40047468 39737448 39167476 38827572 38687747 38647858 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 07:03:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 02:03:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405190703.i4J73Co05957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190701 MOZ000-KSZ000-191000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 190701Z - 191000Z THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN/E CNTRL KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLESS STORMS CAN BECOME MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING...IN WHICH CASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MIGHT INCREASE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO WWD THROUGH S CNTRL KS. TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE E-W FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN EWD ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ON WRN EDGE OF THE MCS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES ARE TRYING TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE WOULD BE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM. ALSO SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP FARTHER S. ..DIAL.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... 38409310 37919459 39389527 39559319 38869156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 16:28:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 11:28:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191627.i4JGRqo32245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191626 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...N CNTRL KY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 191626Z - 191830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING NEAR WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MOST PROMINENT ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE IN...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK/WEAKENING MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY/WESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING WEST OF THIS AXIS... ON NOSE OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE EVANSVILLE IND/ LOUISVILLE KY AREAS THROUGH THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DESPITE LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW MOVING CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... 38158836 38588763 38528633 38188559 37908540 37208656 37068724 37478830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 16:40:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 11:40:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191640.i4JGeEo09307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191638 MOZ000-ARZ000-191845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 191638Z - 191845Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH-SOUTH BAND WEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ORIENTED ALONG 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT...THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON EASTERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WEAKENING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE LONG LIVED. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 37819424 38849398 38939314 38279219 36899225 36289281 36139381 36459412 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 17:20:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 12:20:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191719.i4JHJeo06617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191718 NCZ000-VAZ000-191915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND FAR NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191718Z - 191915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA INTO SCENTRAL AND SERN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER THAN THE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN VA INTO FAR SWRN VA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORT MAX MOVING EWD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 17Z ANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SCENTRAL/SERN VA AND NCENTRAL/NERN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE SHEAR IS EVIDENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX...WITH RECENT REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATING AROUND 25 KTS OF 2-4 KM WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD INDICATES THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP WITH INCIPIENT LINE AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL VA/NCENTRAL NC AND MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL WAA CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THEN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 36097894 36548001 36907983 37237883 37057675 36877596 35997597 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 18:46:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 13:46:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191846.i4JIkWo05962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191845 NDZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191845Z - 192045Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL COOLING ABOVE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS RECEIVING AMPLE HEATING. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG... AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MINOT AREA NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48879775 47879817 47659994 47360157 47900251 48460190 48940142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 19:03:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 14:03:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191903.i4JJ3Vo18069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191901 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-192100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VA INTO FAR SRN MD/DELMARVA PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191901Z - 192100Z DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL VA INTO SRN MD AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL AID IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WELL DEFINED VORT OVER CENTRAL WV AND FAR NWRN VA HAS A 30-35 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SPEED MAX OVERLAID OVER SWLY 15-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOUT 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SHORT LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37307619 37417905 38047937 38377886 38847833 38817676 38287496 37217532 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 19:31:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 14:31:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191931.i4JJVBo05738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191929 TXZ000-NMZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL NM AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191929Z - 192200Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MTNS INTO THE LOWER PLAINS OF SERN NM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE THE THREAT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING JUST EAST OFF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDED UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LCLS AROUND 650 MB WOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS AND RECENT BACKING LOW LEVEL PROFILES OVER ERN/SERN NM INDICATE THAT ADVERTISED STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WAS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN SUPPORTING A FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO ECENTRAL NM AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31970555 33240580 34340544 34650425 34430287 33110249 32220316 31810413 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 19:39:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 14:39:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405191939.i4JJd7o11659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191935 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-192130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191935Z - 192130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...NOW EAST NORTHEAST OF MINOT...IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION. TROUGH EXTENDS INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER/MID 80S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 60F JUST EAST OF TROUGH...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN EXCESS OF 80F NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE 19/20-20/00Z TIME FRAME...AXIS OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FROM JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS ND INTO AREAS EAST PIERRE SD. THIS SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE NEAR/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS BY 20/20Z. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 49029497 46829635 45239727 44459974 46019953 47229875 48049773 49029715 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 20:06:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 15:06:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192005.i4JK5co30070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192003 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW IA THROUGH E CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192003Z - 192200Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA. THIS IS JUST NORTH OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NOW ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARMING ALOFT MAY BE INHIBITIVE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO PRECLUDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIKELY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REDWOOD FALLS VICINITY INTO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS SHORTLY. MODELS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IS INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTING RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ..KERR.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42699651 43699638 44449575 45579529 46349444 46039322 45029348 43729406 43089463 42529510 42429564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 20:57:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 15:57:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192056.i4JKubS01481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192052 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO FAR NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192052Z - 192245Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO FAR NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION INDICATED THAT ONLY 25 J/KG OF MLCIN REMAINS ALONG THE PRIMARY DRYLINE FROM NEAR CVS NEWD TO NEAR GAG...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM MAY AID IN NWD MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME THE REMAINING CIN THROUGH CONVERGENCE...OR IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2 DEG F...LARGE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEG F WILL ALLOW ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND 20-25 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. ..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34530319 35450239 36130117 36619983 36669948 36459936 35829957 35280019 34750108 34310251  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 22:22:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 17:22:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192221.i4JMLbH24035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192220 MNZ000-NDZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218... VALID 192220Z - 200015Z AN ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER TORNADIC CELL IN THE SERN PART OF WW 218. OTHER STORMS OVER WCNTRL ND...WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL ND. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS FAR NRN ND WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL ND AND WCNTRL SD. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS EAST OF THE FRONT WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN ND AND ECNTRL SD WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND AS THIS LIFT SHIFTS ESEWD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WW 218. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX IN PLACE ACROSS SW ND. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD DROP SOME BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 KT SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47509852 47520113 47550177 48010182 48790177 48960135 48849800 48589717 47779723 47499731 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 23:10:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 18:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405192310.i4JNAKH20990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192309 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL SD...SERN ND...NW MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 219... VALID 192309Z - 200045Z A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING IN NERN AND CNTRL SD. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER CELLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NRN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 219. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SHOULD REACH ABR AND PIR AROUND 0100Z. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED INITIATE CELLS ORIENTED IN A LINE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1600 TO 1800 J/KG. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER NWRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET...LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SERN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 219. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11000 FEET. ..BROYLES.. 05/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45839970 47379864 47509833 47529733 47449612 47299595 45509717 43969816 43769854 43809960 43770061 44030064 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 00:14:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 19:14:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405200013.i4K0DvH24112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200012 MNZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-200215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN IA INTO SERN MN AND WCENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... VALID 200012Z - 200215Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OVER NCENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 2 HOURS. AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD...THIS STORM MAY BECOME MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT. ADDITIONALLY MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF WW 220. LONE SUPERCELL OVER KOSSUTH CO IN NCENTRAL IA AT 00Z WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD AROUND 20 KTS PER SLATER PROFILER DATA AND RECENT TRENDS. WITH THIS CONTINUED MOTION...THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NERN PART OF WW 220 SHORTLY AFTER 02Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THIS SUPERCELL APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS STRONG INHIBITION REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS TO THE WEST OF THE DSM AREA IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE SUPERCELL OVER NCENTRAL IA MAY BEGIN TO TAP SURFACE LAYER PARCELS THAT WOULD AID IN AN INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND TORNADO THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS 75/68 WOULD BE NECESSARY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS TO BE REALIZED BY THIS SUPERCELL OVER NCENTRAL IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT BY THE SLATER PROFILER WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WOULD AN SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41239514 44079497 44069272 43519280 41219306 44239345 44609369 44879311 44969252 44949149 44829096 44479068 44269067 43809140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 00:33:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 19:33:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405200033.i4K0X3H01097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200031 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MN...ERN ND...ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200031Z - 200230Z A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC CELLS IS MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR ERN ND INTO NW MN. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS NCNTRL MN. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG CELLS IS IN ERN SD. THIS CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO FAR SWRN MN THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A NEW WW WILL BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 218 AND 219 AND WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS NERN SD WITH A TONGUE OF 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO FAR NWRN MN. A STRONG GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN NRN MN AND THE CELLS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR ACROSS NRN MN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN SRN MN WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SWRN MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN MN AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP THE CONVECTION ORGANIZED INTO AN MCS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MSP SHOWS AN MLCAPE VALUE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 750 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 44639366 44009437 43889595 44219762 46509755 48749741 48929578 48699416 48319346 45519349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 10:15:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 05:15:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201014.i4KAEfH09917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201011 MIZ000-201215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201011Z - 201215Z STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH LAKE MI MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SRN HALF OF LOWER MI NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL LAKE MI AT AROUND 45 KT. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION AND FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR ACCOMPANYING THE NRN BRANCH SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STORMS ALONG ERN FLANKS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE AND ARE TRYING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS LOWER MI SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OF ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA...AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ..DIAL.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRR... 43018615 43718646 43688486 42688483 42298572 42318617 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 16:33:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 11:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201632.i4KGWre17149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201631 ILZ000-IAZ000-201900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA...PARTS OF NW IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201631Z - 201900Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...BUT ONSET OF SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION...IN ZONE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK NOW PROGRESSING INTO CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT STRENGTH OF CAPE FOR MOIST MID-LEVEL PARCELS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOSER TO THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WILL WEAKEN CAP ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...PERHAPS AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING BELOW MID-LEVEL BASED CONVECTION. AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE. ONCE THIS INITIATES...DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RAPID AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL YIELD MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42419434 42759178 42348998 40798988 40669145 40989454 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 18:11:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 13:11:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201811.i4KIBAe23957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201809 MTZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201809Z - 202015Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EARLY STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN MT TO THE SW OF SIDNEY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF HAVRE. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SWRN MT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA PRODUCE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES..LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT AGL AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... 47670950 48391069 48951055 48970428 47920428 47420479 47560757 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 18:32:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 13:32:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201831.i4KIVre06197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201829 NYZ000-202030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEW YORK STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201829Z - 202030Z WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW. WHILE STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC...PRESSURE FALL AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKE ERIE AREA. IN FACT...A SMALL AREA OF RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WAS EVIDENT AN HOUR OR SO AGO ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF STRONGER FORCING...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG EAST OF BUFFALO INTO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WHERE AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BELOW SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW RISK OF A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF... 44357575 43497643 42987669 42547739 42447817 42477887 42657901 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 18:48:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 13:48:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405201848.i4KIm6e17303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201846 NMZ000-COZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201846Z - 202015Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MTNS OF ERN NM....WITH SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN ROOTED IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING LIFT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE BEGINNINGS OF CU ALONG THE DRYLINE EAST OF CQC INDICATED THAT INHIBITION WAS WEAKENING EAST OF THE MTNS. ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF THE MTNS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE MTNS IN ERN NM...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S...THAT AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED. THUS GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR PROFILE...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32900542 33840552 34970560 36220535 36750523 37000461 37040395 36810367 35390353 33770402 32870426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 20:47:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 15:47:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202046.i4KKkqe06650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202043 TXZ000-NMZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202043Z - 202215Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH WRN CHAVES COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A WW. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CIN/DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ESELY UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD AID IN SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 10-15 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TO GIVE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL HIGH TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SELY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING THIS EVENING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET INCREASING INHIBITION TO PERSIST A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 30500416 31320481 31920506 33380523 33860472 33880372 33710342 32990306 31940298 30790308 30440329 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 21:56:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 16:56:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202156.i4KLuBe16934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202154 IAZ000-MOZ000-202330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202154Z - 202330Z ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN IA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW FROM CNTRL WI THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO NE KS. A CAP IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP. AS A RESULT... SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 4500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LCLS BELOW 1200 METERS ACROSS SRN IA. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SCNTRL AND SWRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40939168 40729207 40539292 40419399 40379523 40779573 41269572 42079448 42199249 41999167 41389151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:04:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:04:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202204.i4KM4Pe22089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202203 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202202 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO FRONT RANGE/NERN CO...SERN WY AND THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202202Z - 210000Z ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WY FRONT RANGE. IF CONTINUED HEATING CAN OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WW BY 00Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATE ROCKIES WAS INCREASING. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 45-53 DEG RANGE OVER THIS AREA...A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS LIMITED MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UP THROUGH 22Z. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2-3 DEG F...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ENSUE. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500-800 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-45 KTS/ ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38430494 39490551 40900551 42110549 42350479 42220392 41730324 40040297 38530364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:27:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:27:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202226.i4KMQie02009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202225 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NWRN PA AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202225Z - 210000Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NE OH AND FAR NW PA. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO LOWER MI RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT THERE EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR SRN LOWER MI SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM LAKE HURON EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN PA. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS SEWD ACROSS NW PA AND NE OH. THE DTX 20Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH 45 KT AT 500 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS CONVECTION FROM LAKE MI CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42468021 41617881 40897830 40227847 39897948 40028035 40348144 41008301 41558454 42408585 42988592 43668530 43748358 43398247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:36:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:36:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202236.i4KMa3e07611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202234 SDZ000-WYZ000-210030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202234Z - 210030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL WY INTO NERN WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL WY AS A VORT MAX AIDING IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTERACTS WITH NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT 35 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATE FEED INTO CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO NERN WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS IT MOVES FARTHER ENEWD...LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLUX AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z...EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD LIMIT A PROLONGED/MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT INTO FAR WRN SD/SERN MT THROUGH THAT TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 42190612 42510733 42770882 43350902 44320877 44620734 44910545 44900457 44180399 42560455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 23:55:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 18:55:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405202354.i4KNsue18909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202353 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... VALID 202353Z - 210200Z CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROW SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY/DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN NM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/INFLOW INCREASES INTO THEM AND THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW NORTH OF WW 223 WILL NOT BE NEEDED. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 223...WHERE MLCAPES RANGED FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. INCREASING DIURNAL INHIBITION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 223 WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID TIME...UNLESS CONVECTIVE MERGERS CAN BEGIN AND CAN ORGANIZE A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL THAT WOULD SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 30930419 34550484 35880476 36830344 36990254 34480269 30910220 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 00:35:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 19:35:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210035.i4L0ZIe07297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210033 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210032 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222... VALID 210032Z - 210200Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE CONSIDERED IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE...CONTINUING A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR CHICAGO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS NRN IL...SERN IA INTO NWRN MO. SHORT LINES OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING TOPS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND INTO FAR NRN IND LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVELS ARE WARM...THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX... 40719235 41459240 41719133 42708823 42738762 41818756 40978766 40868968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 02:28:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 21:28:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210227.i4L2Rce00753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210225 TXZ000-NMZ000-210330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223... VALID 210225Z - 210330Z LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS ERN NM/W TX. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINING THEMSELVES IN AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...BUT AS THEY MOVE EWD THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ETA/RUC MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP EAST OF CURRENT STORMS...THUS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KS/NE LATER TONIGHT. STORMS ACROSS THIS WW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...AND THE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ..TAYLOR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... 30860356 30970424 33370468 34480479 34500272 32470243 30950215 30930286 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 03:05:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 22:05:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210304.i4L34ee18388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210303 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...ERN NEB...NRN KS AND SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210303Z - 210430Z SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL KS EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN IA WITH BACKED NELY FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A CAPPING INVERSION IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE CAP. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY ERODE THE CAP LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP THE CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...BASES SHOULD BE ELEVATED. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN KS INTO FAR SRN NEB WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ALSO...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY GAIN ACCESS TO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38669917 38480126 38580264 39380276 40750277 41010079 41459826 42119650 42009598 41129518 39759515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 06:13:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 01:13:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210613.i4L6Due09674@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210611 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB/IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210611Z - 210645Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NEB INTO IA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR FROM THE SWRN NEB PANHANDLE EWD TO EAST CENTRAL NEB...WITH ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG OR NORTH OF WW 227. STRONG 50 KT SLY LLJ OVER KS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD INTO THESE STORMS AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN WAA REGIME TO THE N OF E-W SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEB INTO SRN IA. INSTABILITY AND CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41370210 42540198 43500138 43849795 43849341 41759333 41509616 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 06:40:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 01:40:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210641.i4L6fAe21596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210640 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-210745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-ERN OH/NWRN-WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210640Z - 210745Z WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN-ERN OH INTO NWRN-WRN PA. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH EXTENDS FROM NRN IND/SERN LOWER MI INTO NRN OH PER IR IMAGERY/REGIONAL RADARS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS... CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...IS MOVING TO THE SE AT 25-30 KT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS NRN OH...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ONE OR TWO SMALL COLD POOLS OVER LE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN OH INTO WRN PA...AS NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS MOVING INLAND OFF THE LAKE. VAD WINDS SHOW 35-40 KT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OH...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE INFLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND RESULT IN A SLOWER SE MOVEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAPE BEARING SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOMEWHAT SLOW ESEWD MOVEMENT OF MCS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ATTM. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE... 41758049 41147961 40507986 40298081 40228207 40588299 41348323 41488255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 07:23:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 02:23:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210723.i4L7NTe08790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210722 IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-210745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228... VALID 210722Z - 210745Z NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MN INTO NERN IA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED AND CONGEALED INTO TWO STORM COMPLEXES ACROSS WW 228 OVER NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA SINCE 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE NE AT 30 KT AND WILL MOVE INTO SERN SD AND SWRN MN BY 09Z. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR INTO THIS ACTIVITY VIA OBSERVED 45-60 KT SSWLY LLJ...AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO SERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CAPE BEARING SHEAR AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41709353 41679658 41599842 41699918 43059916 43399708 44689636 44609266 43709125 41799084 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 08:47:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 03:47:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210848.i4L8m0e14393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210845 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-210945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN OH/WRN PA/NRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210845Z - 210945Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN OH AND WRN PA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AOA SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH 11-12Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS SERN OH/SWRN PA/NRN WV. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM VENANGO COUNTY PA SWWD TO FRANKLIN COUNTY OH WITH A SEWD MOVEMENT AT 25-30 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF COLD POOL STRUCTURE WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH VALUES IN THE COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH 40 KT OF WLY FLOW IS LOCATED 0.5-1 KM AGL...THIS WLY ORIENTATION TO A SEWD MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND SPEED THAT IS ABLE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SCENARIO GIVEN THAT AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVED ACROSS SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION POINTS...MEASURED GUSTS RANGED FROM 25-30 KT. THE ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SERN OH/SWRN PA AND NRN WV DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH MOST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39838325 40368241 41327994 41117912 40077886 39508079 39348251  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 09:35:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 04:35:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405210936.i4L9aIe05616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210934 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0434 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...229...230... VALID 210934Z - 211030Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WI IN THE NEXT HOUR... AS THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL SPREADS/DEVELOPS ENEWD BY 11Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LOCATED FROM SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING TO THE ENE AND SLOW NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS SRN MN. SURFACE ANALYSES OVER THE LAST 1-3 HOURS SHOW A CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO EAST CENTRAL NEB NEAR OMA AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IA...WITH A SURFACE WAVE NEAR AURORA NEB OR 25 E GRI. 65 KT SWLY LLJ PER SERN NEB WIND PROFILERS/ VAD WINDS IS FOCUSING STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NRN IA/SRN MN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN/SWRN WI INTO THE EARLY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF LLJ...THEY DO SHOW THE LLJ WILL VEER TO WSWLY BY 12Z RESULTING IN AN EWD TRANSLATION OF MCS/S INTO WI. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND CAPE BEARING SHEAR OF 40-55 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42189389 42279547 42689646 43479640 44349631 44599189 44648947 43648918 42548905 42189123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 11:23:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 06:23:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211124.i4LBOPe21652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211123 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-211230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...229...230... VALID 211123Z - 211230Z WW/S 228/229/230 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z. WIND PROFILER/VAD DATA SHOW THE STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS CONTINUED TO VEER AND IS NOW ORIENTED WSWLY ACROSS CENTRAL IA/NWRN MO. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11Z SHOWED A LOW OVER ERN NEB...20 SW OLU...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA. THE LLJ WILL FOCUS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER...PER RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ACROSS FAR NERN IA AND SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND STRONG CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED IN FAYETTE COUNTY IA...AND SHOULD EXIT THE ERN PORTION OF WW 230 BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REST OF NRN IA INTO SRN MN...RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES. THUS...THESE WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42499114 42589376 43129652 43559652 44229638 44409597 44599200 43629114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 12:34:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 07:34:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211234.i4LCYue27920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211234 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211234 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-211400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MUCH OF MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211234Z - 211400Z FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT 35-40 KT ACROSS NRN VA AND WRN INTO CENTRAL MD THROUGH 14Z WITH MOST WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-40 KT...AND ISOLATED GUSTS AT OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PA SWWD ALONG THE FAR ERN WV PANHANDLE AT 1230Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG ACROSS NRN VA EWD TO DE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WITH MCS HAS OVERSPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE SQUALL LINE... INDICATING SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED. DESPITE SEWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT UP TO 40 KT...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PER VIS IMAGERY/AREA 12Z RAOBS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THIS WIND SPEED...AS THESE STORMS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ..PETERS.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 38437930 39227829 39867751 39467632 38587675 37757744 37837887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 14:40:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 09:40:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211441.i4LEfGe10236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211440 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211440 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL/LWR MI/NRN IND/NW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211440Z - 211645Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METRO AREAS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN/ DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA/ WISCONSIN. THUS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG/ SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST OF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN IS UNCERTAIN. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS DESTABILIZING WITH HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG ...SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THIS LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL...AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL CAPPING. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX... 41678131 40828237 40638422 41078560 41178661 41058772 41238826 42258851 43148704 44698602 45718471 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 14:46:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 09:46:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211446.i4LEkUe13629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211444 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0944 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...WRN AND CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211444Z - 211715Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 15Z. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG WARM FRONT IN NWRN IA/SWRN MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD AS AIR MASS FEEDING THESE ELEVATED STORMS DESTABILIZES FURTHER. AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BACKING AND STRENGTHENING 500 MB FLOW FROM FSD TO LSE. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 40-50 KTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS / MULTICELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED INITIALLY...AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME UNCAPPED WITH CONTINUED HEATING...THEREBY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...IF STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET CAN DEVELOP. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42559637 43609635 44299576 45029309 44729051 43958954 41789115 42279435 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 16:29:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 11:29:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211629.i4LGTre23911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211628 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-211830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTR/ERN VA...NE NC...SRN DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211628Z - 211830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND BELT OF MODERATE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT FORCING LIKELY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH EVOLVING COLD POOL. THUS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AS INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOWARD/ACROSS THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS BY AROUND 21Z. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 35957566 35687662 36647840 36897948 37318057 37887951 38477811 38497682 38027590 37987533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 18:19:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 13:19:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211820.i4LIK0e16460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211819 NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-212015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...234... VALID 211819Z - 212015Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO SHORTLY. SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD AT UP TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE DETROIT AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 19Z... AND AT ITS PRESENT RATE OF FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL PROGRESS NEAR/NORTH OF CLEVELAND BY 20-21Z. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT HOW SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER LAKE ERIE...BUT IF ONGOING CLUSTER WEAKENS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE BREEZE AND FRONTAL INTERSECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. OTHERWISE...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG TRAILING UPSTREAM OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES. LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT NEAR STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS...NEAR/NORTH OF FORT WAYNE INTO THE TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND AREAS. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX... 43017890 42487866 41677978 40418028 40438180 40878341 40938438 40848587 41028667 41508641 41798407 42358327 42708288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 18:59:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 13:59:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211900.i4LJ0Le19990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211859 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211859 IAZ000-WIZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA INTO CNTRL/SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231... VALID 211859Z - 212100Z WW MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA SHORTLY. WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW NOSING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS SUPPORTING EVOLUTION OF GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE LA CROSSE AREA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER...NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WHICH HAS REMAINED GENERALLY STATIONARY FROM THE FORT DODGE AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOLINE. BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF OUTFLOW REMAINS GENERALLY COOL STABLE...LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST OF MADISON NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER... RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE...NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONT...NEAR/EAST OF FORT DODGE. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WATERLOO/ MARSHALLTOWN AREA...WHERE HODOGRAPHS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...GRB...MKX... 43079358 43169262 43209167 42669101 41889212 42149364 42619414 43339103 43949002 44338926 44168831 43748789 43068835 42908914 42719074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 19:22:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 14:22:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405211923.i4LJNQe02217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211922 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-212115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SERN MT...WRN SD...NE PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211922Z - 212115Z RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND A WW WILL BE LIKELY BEFORE 21Z. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THEY INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE AND IS QUICKLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH STRONG HEATING. 18Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL CAUSE FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES FOR PROLIFIC LARGE HAILERS. COLD DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS MODERATE ENEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 20-30 KTS WILL ALSO CAUSE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 41070415 42060389 43430417 44050562 44240658 45110699 46300523 46110337 45490227 44430193 41030250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 20:35:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 15:35:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212035.i4LKZRe13875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212030 VAZ000-NCZ000-212230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... VALID 212030Z - 212230Z CONTINUE WW. DOWNSLOPE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE INHIBITING FACTOR TO INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...IN MOIST VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. AS MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES EASTWARD OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ITS WAKE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT NEW INTENSE CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AHEAD OF ONGOING CLUSTER NEAR LYNCHBURG. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT BACKS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS VIRGINIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS WILL BE A RISK ALONG DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOL. ..KERR.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RNK... 35937581 36007675 36717725 36757819 36797894 37347876 37727815 37877728 37917658 37807605 37457565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 21:33:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 16:33:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212133.i4LLXke15845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212131 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212131 MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-212300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SWRN PA...WRN MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212131Z - 212300Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WAS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THIS REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A SQUALL-LINE...AT THE NORTH END OF THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM...IS FEEDING OFF THIS HIGH INSTABILITY AND IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD AT 45 KT. THE LINE SHOULD TAKE A MORE SELY TRACK ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW 235 AND 239 AND INTO WV...FAR NRN VA AND WRN MD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A REAR INFLOW JET PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LINE...WILL HELP KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED TROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39887798 39328046 38828204 38158212 37438110 38127801 38717728 39547723 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 21:58:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 16:58:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212158.i4LLwTe29434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212157 SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-212330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD...CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212157Z - 212330Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF EXISTING WW 238. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS GOING E OF CURRENT WW. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 41010144 43050159 45960187 45939964 44379924 41969964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 22:36:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 17:36:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212236.i4LMaqe18335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212235 IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL AND ERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212235Z - 220030Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU NW OF HLC...EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES LITTLE CIN WITHIN THIS ZONE AND ALONG DRYLINE...AND FORECASTS PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND STRONG WIND PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORCING PROVE ENOUGH TO ESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS MUCH HIGHER. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 39009910 39099992 39380044 39900043 41079974 42359855 42579675 41959617 39559786 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 22:54:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 17:54:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212254.i4LMsce27644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212253 PAZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235... VALID 212253Z - 220030Z AN INTENSE SQUALL-LINE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS WRN PA. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE LIKELY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD FROM MD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THIS AXIS AND THE INSTABILITY WILL FUEL THE SQUALL-LINE AS IT MOVES ESEWD. IN ADDITION...A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET IS PRESENT JUST BEHIND THE LINE. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND A FAST ESEWD MOVEMENT OF 45 KT WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40348014 41067974 41877969 41957771 41787533 40837519 39907537 39837668 39787996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 23:34:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 18:34:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405212334.i4LNYie15357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212333 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212333Z - 220030Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED E OF THE DRYLINE IN NEBRASKA AND ALONG WARM FRONT IN SERN SD. SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH LOW LEVEL JET AND ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. STRONG INSTABILITY IN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WITH SMALL CIN FURTHER SUGGESTS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 40049705 40039955 42409985 43339952 44239889 44279740 43869624 43409580 41659613 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 00:38:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 19:38:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220039.i4M0d4e13254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220037 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-220200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236...242... VALID 220037Z - 220200Z SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM NRN IA ACROSS NRN IL. IN ADDITION...NEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE LINE ACROSS NCNTRL IA AND NWRN IL. AS THE STORMS TRACK NEWD...THEY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO WSW ACROSS NCNTRL IA AD NRN IL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WHICH WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A MID-LEVEL JET EXISTS ACROSS SRN MN AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO JETS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS ACROSS IA AND NRN IL AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS DECREASING AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESSEN SOME BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41529543 42499608 43189597 43049285 42769051 42178775 41098736 40628765 41179131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 01:34:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 20:34:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220135.i4M1ZGe06672@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220134 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220134 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-220300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...VA AND NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220134Z - 220300Z A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD AND SHOULD AFFECT VA AND SRN WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THE LINE COULD CONTINUE SWD INTO VA LATE THIS EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM IAD SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT AND THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC CONCERNING STORM ORGANIZATION. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THIS WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS. ..BROYLES.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX... 37838139 38397929 38467765 37507712 36417744 36118076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 01:41:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 20:41:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220141.i4M1fje09625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220140 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240... VALID 220140Z - 220315Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL PERSIST WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE WW 240. LATEST MESOANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 00Z DDC/AMA SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OWING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH TIME...LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING/SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DIMINISHING TREND OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 240...WITH EXPANSION/REISSUANCE OF WW NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 34820214 38220027 39529978 39509864 34810013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 03:02:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 22:02:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220303.i4M334e14908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220302 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220301 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/CNTRL AND ERN NEB/NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243... VALID 220301Z - 220430Z THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS REMAINS ACROSS WW 243...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN HALF OF TORNADO WW. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WW 243 OWING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS/FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. WW 243 CONTINUES. ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS NE/NCNTRL NEB INTO FAR SE SD HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL. CONTINUATION OF TORNADIC THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NCNTRL/NE NEB AND FAR SE SD THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH LENGTH/CURVATURE IS MAXIMIZED IN MIDST OF RELATIVELY LOW LCLS/LFCS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SCNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS...HIGHER LCLS/LFCS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LESSER TORNADIC THREAT WITH HIGHER BASED SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD... 39259974 43909935 43909673 39259730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 05:26:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 00:26:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220526.i4M5Qpe13134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220525 SDZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-220730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/FAR SE SD/WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243...244... VALID 220525Z - 220730Z TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF WW 243 AND WW 244...WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL. REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY FOR ERN NEB/WRN IA BY 06Z. DEVELOPING SW LOW LEVEL JET -- 50+ KT ALREADY EVIDENT IN FAIRBURY NEB/LATHROP MO PROFILERS -- WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS/TRAINING ECHOES FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME INTO LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER. PRIMARY SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO -- AND POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO -- WILL REMAIN FROM EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN IA INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ..GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...DMX... 40319720 40319921 41079917 41959916 42099870 41999830 42789760 43609747 43949672 42699685 42939385 41659386 41399685 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 06:26:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 01:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220626.i4M6QXe07692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220625 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-220830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN OH/WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 220625Z - 220830Z ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN OH/LAKE ERIE INTO WRN PA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED HAIL. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE HURON AND TRAILING SWWD TO NERN IL AT 05Z. 45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WIND ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL/IND INTO CENTRAL OH...IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. AREA VAD WIND DATA/RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED A 30 KT SWLY LLJ IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN IND TO NRN OH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT...AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLUX FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...VEERING LLJ TO NEARLY PARALLEL TO LINE OF STORMS WILL FAVOR BACKBUILDING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OVER CENTRAL/ERN OH AND TRAINING OF STORMS INTO ERN OH/WRN PA FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 41498289 42028082 41767926 40827885 39877935 39788082 39788264 40438390 41158397 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 06:48:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 01:48:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220649.i4M6nSe16603@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220648 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-220745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI/FAR NRN IND AND NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220648Z - 220745Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 08Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI/FAR NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...IF A COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NRN IL/SRN WI/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/03Z RUC DATA INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SRN LOWER MID/NRN IND AND NRN/WRN OH...WHILE A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL VEER TO WLY BY 12Z SUPPORTING AN EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS IN THE FORMS OF LINES OR ONE BOW ECHO. 06 RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A COLD POOL IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ATTM ACROSS FAR NRN IL/SERN WI...WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NERN IL INTO SWRN LAKE MI AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 35 KT. IF THE COLD POOL BECOMES STRONGER...DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SWLY 35 KT LLJ WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS ACTIVITY TRACKS ESEWD ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED E-W OVER SRN LOWER MI. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... 42688618 42538293 41778222 41038265 40898364 41198584 41488704 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 07:42:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 02:42:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220742.i4M7gZe06988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220741 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220741 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-220915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IA/SWRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245... VALID 220741Z - 220915Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 245 ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN IA INTO SWRN WI/NRN IL. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA /TO THE S OF ALO/...ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL FROM 30 NE MLI TO 45 S CGX. WV IMAGERY/BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER SWRN WI PER AREA VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED A SHORT WAVE AND/OR MCV WITH THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA INTO WRN/SWRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO LINES OF STORMS...ONE OVER NERN IA AND THE SECOND DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL IA IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 246. AS THE MCV MOVES EWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...55 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COLD POOLS IN THE WAKE OF LINES OF STORMS IN IA WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THESE LINES MOVE ESEWD AT 35-40KT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NERN PORTION OF WW 245. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER 50+ KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN INFLUX OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER LLJ FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WAA REGIME. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 43019115 42418745 40648748 41409475 42329335 42579207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 08:46:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 03:46:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405220847.i4M8lTe01175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220845 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220844 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-220945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 246... VALID 220844Z - 220945Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW. MESO-ANALYSES THROUGH 08Z SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IA WNWWD TO NERN NEB. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL IA HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 45 SSW ALO TO 45 SE OMA AND WWD TO NEAR HSI TO 25 SW EAR. WIND PROFILER DATA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWED THE NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS VEERED TO SWLY AS IT NOSES INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA. THIS ORIENTATION IS FOCUSING STRONGEST ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR ERN NEB INTO IA. THUS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN PORTION OF WW 246. MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 35-40 KT OF CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH EWD MOVING LINE/BOW SEGMENT ACROSS FAR ERN NEB ATTM MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATOP SHALLOW STABLE LAYER TO THE NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY STRONG LLJ NOSING INTO WRN IA WILL SUPPORT FAST MOTION OF TSTM LINES AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EWD INTO CENTRAL IA. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 41529919 41399698 41979629 42079392 41029392 40639519 40329732 40139917  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 11:59:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 06:59:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405221159.i4MBxUe14530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221158 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/PORTIONS NRN MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221158Z - 221300Z ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS SERN IA/PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO WRN IL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY/AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. 11Z MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS/S...EXTENDING FROM NRN IL WSWWD ACROSS FAR SRN IA TO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILERS DATA INDICATED THE SWLY 50 KT LLJ EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NRN MO...WITH RESULTANT STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN IA...WHERE RADARS SHOW STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND APPEARANCE OF THESE STORMS/NEW DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY PER VIS IMAGERY...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED. WAA AND INFLUX OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN MO/SERN IA INTO WRN IL THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE THE LLJ WEAKENS BY 15Z. ..PETERS.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 39939433 41159352 41208983 40998914 40038931 39689031 39729349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 16:04:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 11:04:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405221604.i4MG4fe15356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221603 INZ000-ILZ000-221700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL...NWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221603Z - 221700Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL AND IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.. REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT INTO WRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY DID NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY...AND AS OF THE LAST HOUR THE LEADING EDGE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS IL INTO IND IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BENEATH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF REJUVENATING MCS. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 39989040 41538917 41688591 40718619 40278780 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDse12636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221936 OHZ000-INZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN MI...WRN/NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... VALID 221936Z - 222030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z FOR MUCH OF NRN OH... THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A POSSIBLE EARLY MCS STRUCTURE...ARCING FROM NRN INTO WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IND INTO NWRN OH BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40828672 41588488 41648096 40228131 39758622  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDse12635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221726 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NRN PA...UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221726Z - 221900Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOON EVOLVE OFF THE LAKE BREEZE FROM NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... RAPID HEATING ALONG LAKE BREEZE HAS INITIATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE BENEATH WSWLY LLJ. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION/SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41708114 42577862 42127719 41137797 41048091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221936 OHZ000-INZ000-222030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...SWRN MI...WRN/NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247... VALID 221936Z - 222030Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z FOR MUCH OF NRN OH... THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A POSSIBLE EARLY MCS STRUCTURE...ARCING FROM NRN INTO WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IND INTO NWRN OH BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40828672 41588488 41648096 40228131 39758622 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221809 MIZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221809Z - 221915Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF LOWER MI... DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...PER RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER MONTCALM COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42958619 43808506 43828266 42358278 42068368 42078625  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221809 MIZ000-221915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221809Z - 221915Z ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF LOWER MI... DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...PER RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER MONTCALM COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE HIGH DEW POINTS THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42958619 43808506 43828266 42358278 42068368 42078625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222014.i4MKE0e12762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221726 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...NRN PA...UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221726Z - 221900Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SOON EVOLVE OFF THE LAKE BREEZE FROM NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. WW MAY BE REQUIRED... RAPID HEATING ALONG LAKE BREEZE HAS INITIATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE BENEATH WSWLY LLJ. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION/SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41708114 42577862 42127719 41137797 41048091  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:11:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:11:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222013.i4MKDte12650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221813 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEBRASKA...EXTREME NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221813Z - 222015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL FORM BY 20Z OVER NERN CO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD INTO EXTREME NWRN KS. WW WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 20Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING TREND IN TCU / CB DEVELOPMENT OVER CO AND WY INTO WRN NEB...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/LIFT MOVE NEWD OVER CO. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF 50 + DEWPOINTS EXTENDS INTO NERN CO. A CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND THE FORMATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITHIN MOIST AXIS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL BE HIGHEST AND SURFACE WINDS BACKED. HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE THREAT OF EXTREMELY DAMAGING HAIL STORMS BY THE TIME STORMS ENTER SWRN NEBRASKA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489 40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:14:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:14:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222015.i4MKF8e13851@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222002 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222002Z - 222100Z ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM SRN NEB INTO SRN IA. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z... RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE AN AXIS OF 3000-4000 J/KG SBCAPE CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWWD ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER AHEAD OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A RAPID INCREASE IN LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON E-W BOUNDARY ALONG THE KS/NEB...IA/MO BORDERS OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY STRONGLY SUPPORTS TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40989897 41799567 41689178 40489165 40159552 39969896  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:14:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:14:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222015.i4MKF8e13824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222004 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248... VALID 222004Z - 222130Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SERN MI. MODIFIED VWP OUT OF DTX SHOWS 25-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...WITH 18Z RAOB INDICATING STRONG INSTABILITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BROKEN LINE WILL THUS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489 40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:14:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:14:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222015.i4MKF9e13899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222004 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-222130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 248... VALID 222004Z - 222130Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SERN MI. MODIFIED VWP OUT OF DTX SHOWS 25-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR...WITH 18Z RAOB INDICATING STRONG INSTABILITY. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN BROKEN LINE WILL THUS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE...WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38980202 38910265 39160360 39500406 39830496 40700489 40980400 41580378 41170127 40450121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:56:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:56:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222056.i4MKupe01904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222052 KSZ000-OKZ000-222215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222052Z - 222215Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD TO NW OF GAG. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONVECTIVE TEMPS EASILY REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE AND INITIATION IS JUST A QUESTION OF MASS FIELDS AND UVVS. AREA PROFILERS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET BACKING AND THIS WILL RE-FOCUS DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE. GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING...INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. IF SUPERCELLS CAN FORM AND MOVE EWD INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT / LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT...ALONG AND E OF I-35...STRONG TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 36759810 36509931 36500023 37229993 38579932 39689954 39629830 39459712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 21:25:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 16:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222126.i4MLQEe15635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222123 NYZ000-PAZ000-222300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA AND WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222123Z - 222300Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCRG DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN PA/NY AND TCU ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE FRONT ACROSS ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES OF WRN NY. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING LOWER MI WILL AID RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 50KT WLY FLOW AT 500MB COUPLED WITH 30-40KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL...WIND AND TORNADO HAZARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 41707764 41128012 42247974 43207715 43387583 41717564  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 22:29:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 17:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222230.i4MMUCe14812@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222229 PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250... VALID 222229Z - 230000Z LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN WW 250 ACROSS OH. THIS WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 250 FROM NWRN IND ATTM. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF OH REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OH WHERE LATEST RUC SOUNDING ADJUSTED WITH SURFACE DATA PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 1800-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND STRONGEST MASS TRANSPORT AND ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH WHERE FRONTAL WAVE WAS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY STILL INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AS BAND OF RESIDUAL LIFT SPREADS SEWD FROM IND/MI CONVECTIVE LINE... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 41938383 41938042 40098197 40058536 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 22:53:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 17:53:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405222253.i4MMrle25842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222252 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222252Z - 230045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE. INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR TORNADOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LEAST. ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41009163 40799512 42829582 42899363 42749194 42458958 41988821 40958819 40938910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 00:12:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 19:12:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230013.i4N0DNe28014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230011 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-230145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN / SERN NEB...WRN IA..EXTREME NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 251... VALID 230011Z - 230145Z VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION CONTINUES WITHIN WW ALONG WARM FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE, FROM NEAR FRANKLIN/ADAMS COUNTIES NEWD TOWARDS OMAHA AND INTO WRN IA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT...CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB...WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...WITH STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN IA THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID... 40099889 41299809 41929631 42029444 41999347 40709339 40149648 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 03:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 22:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230310.i4N3Ane04246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230309 NEZ000-KSZ000-230415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 253... VALID 230309Z - 230415Z STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING NWRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 253 AND WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS NERN KS TONIGHT. PRESENT MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SURGE IS FROM 290 AT 35KT AND THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN MO BY 0600Z. MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE LINE WOULD SUGGEST PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT BUT A NARROW AXIS OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN KS COULD STILL SUPPORT TORNADIC STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38349680 38329895 40129852 40159628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 04:05:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 23:05:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230406.i4N46Le24214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230405 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230404 NYZ000-PAZ000-230500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN NY AND NCNTRL PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 255... VALID 230404Z - 230500Z STRONG LARGE SCALE BOW ECHO COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY AT CLOSE TO 50KT. NRN SEGMENT OF THE BOW...MOVING INTO MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE QUITE STRONG BUT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. LINEAR ARC OF STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE PASSES. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELLS WERE NOTED ON SRM DATA FROM BGM...AHEAD OF THE LINE MOVING FROM MADISON AND CHENANGO COUNTIES INTO OTSEGO COUNTY. BGM VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42587790 43477481 42037481 41127789 42587787 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 04:34:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 23:34:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230434.i4N4Yke02141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230433 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/SRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230433Z - 230600Z ...DANGEROUS BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS SRN IA... INTENSE BOX ECHO COMPLEX MOVING AT 50-60KT AND PRODUCING WINDS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 80KT CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN IA. APEX OF THE BOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER INTENSE INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS IT ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM MADISON COUNTY. DAMAGING TO EXTREME WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN WARREN/MARION COUNTIES EAST TO JASPER AND POWESHIEK COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER BOWING LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM OTOE AND JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EXTREME SERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING EAST AT 50KT AND WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40239784 42759108 41039106 38439797 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 05:25:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 00:25:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230525.i4N5Pue23163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230524 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-230630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 230524Z - 230630Z WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN WI AND NRN IL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS NRN IL INTO SWRN WI ATTM...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORT HAIL AS THE INITIAL THREAT. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS THE 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN IA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF DAMAGING SRN IA BOW ECHO INTO THIS AREA AFTER 0730Z. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43199113 43088751 40438747 40409142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 06:21:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 01:21:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230621.i4N6Lwe10896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230621 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230621 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NRN MO/WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230621Z - 230645Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING BOW ECHO ACROSS ERN IA CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 45-50 KT... AND WILL MOVE INTO WW 257 JUST AFTER 07Z. 50+ KT SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO WSWLY BY 12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD WRN IA. AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO WILL DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG... WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. LINE OF STORMS OVER NWRN MO/SOUTH CENTRAL IA IS MOVING EWD AT CLOSE TO 45 KT...WHILE STORMS CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THIS LINE ACROSS NWRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER BOW ECHO...RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW IN THE NEXT HOUR. ACTIVITY FARTHER SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS NRN MO/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL IL. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40409236 40278929 39329012 38759059 38819253 38599519 38369802 40029622 40439489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:21:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:21:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230722.i4N7MKe02630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230721 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230721 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO/SRN-ERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230721Z - 230815Z WW 256 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z. SEVERE BOW ECHOES...ONE ACROSS ERN IA AND THE SECOND OVER NRN MO/SRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AT 45-50 KT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THESE BOWS WILL EXIT WW 256 BY/JUST AFTER 07Z...THUS ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN-NRN MO AS TRAILING EDGE OF BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO/SOUTH CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO BECOME ORIENTED E-W...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN KS ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA AND 5-10 KT W-E ORIENTED CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41049100 39979239 38969671 40099575 40389365 41349299 41659192 42519184 42689106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:52:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:52:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230752.i4N7qse14198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230752 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230751 COR ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-230815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0839 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN MO/SRN-ERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 256... VALID 230751Z - 230815Z CORRECTED FOR WW EXPIRATION AND TIME OF THREATS IN DISCUSSION WW 256 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. SEVERE BOW ECHOES...ONE ACROSS ERN IA AND THE SECOND OVER NRN MO/SRN IA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AT 45-50 KT PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THESE BOWS WILL EXIT SRN PORTION OF WW 256 BY 08Z AND THE ERN PORTION BY 09Z...THUS ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN-NRN MO AS TRAILING EDGE OF BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO/SOUTH CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO BECOME ORIENTED E-W...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NERN KS ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA AND 5-10 KT W-E ORIENTED CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD ACROSS NWRN INTO NRN MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 41049100 39979239 38969671 40099575 40389365 41349299 41659192 42519184 42689106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 09:32:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 04:32:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405230932.i4N9Wae30013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 230930 SWOMCD SPC MCD 230930 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-231030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0430 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/CENTRAL-NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257...258... VALID 230930Z - 231030Z BOW ECHO STRUCTURES/LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED FROM SRN WI SWD ACROSS NRN-CENTRAL IL INTO NERN MO THROUGH 11Z. PRIMARILY ELEVATED HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREATS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN MO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE TWO EARLIER BOW ECHOES HAVE EVOLVED INTO BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SRN WI SSWWD ACROSS FAR ERN IA TO NERN MO AT 09Z. THE NRN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IA AND NWD IS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 45 KT... WHILE THE REST OF THE STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 35-40 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN-CENTRAL IL HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING AN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /FROM THE BOW ECHO NOW MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL/NERN MO/ HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS NRN MO AND EXTENDS FROM COOPER TO PLATTE COUNTIES OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF MO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WAA THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD AS 60 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...EAX... 39569473 40229333 40249191 40599159 41969093 42329088 42989010 42998747 40578748 39559069 39099205 38489442  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 14:45:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 09:45:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231446.i4NEkJe23221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231445 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-231645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN/CENTRAL IN...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231445Z - 231645Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN IL. THIS IS OCCURRING S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THROUGH THE SRN THIRD OF LOWER MI. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. PLENTY OF HEATING HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BETWEEN 18-21Z...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IT WILL BE SOONER ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 60 KT AND 70 KT RESPECTIVELY MOVES INTO AREA. THUS...THREAT MAY BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...BUT INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 39798752 40438752 41108753 41408749 41748698 42248632 42588496 42498360 42168290 41738339 41358344 40688357 40288425 40138481 39968588 39878691 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 16:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 11:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231628.i4NGSXe00435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231627 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA / WRN NC /NWRN SC / NERN GA / ERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231627Z - 231900Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THUS PULSE WILL BE DOMINATE CONVECTIVE MODE. DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34468355 34818415 35458389 36498251 37658071 37727958 37507883 35687986 34168275 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:26:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:26:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231726.i4NHQne25985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231725 ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO NERN MO...WRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231725Z - 231900Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-20Z FROM NERN MO / ERN IA / WRN IL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY SOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO. THIS AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 - 2500 J/KG. CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED INSOLATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT A CONTINUATION OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SW...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP IS BREACHED. ALTHOUGH LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM IS PRESENT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT...WHETHER IN A BROKEN LINE OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT FORECAST LI VALUES OF -10 TO -12 WILL ALOW FOR VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL ACCELERATION WITHIN SUPERCELLS. SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND E OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE 1 KM SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED FROM 200-300 M2/S2. THIS AREA...FROM NERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ANYWHERE STORMS FORM. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...EAX... 38738995 38059152 37549350 38089404 38599358 39209291 40159220 41279172 42559145 42909046 42858890 41378893 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:36:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:36:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231736.i4NHaae30625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231736 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231735 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IN...NWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 231735Z - 231930Z WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LWR MI AND NWRN IN. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT AS SOME OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM EARLIER IL MCS MOVED OVER AREA...SOME CAPPING SET IN AT MID LEVELS. ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUED JUST W OF THE DET AREA...AND ANOTHER AREA CONTINUES MOVING INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF IN. IF CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...REMAINS ISOLATED...THIS WATCH MAY BE REPLACED BY AN ADDITIONAL WW AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER SW ACROSS NERN MO INTO IL. BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN IN INTO SRN LOWER MI. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... 40078681 41218685 41938644 42768608 43558345 42938236 41338241 40668467 40248605 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:45:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:45:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231746.i4NHkJe02776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231745 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-231945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IN...EXTREME NWRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 260... VALID 231745Z - 231945Z CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD OVER SERN IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE IS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY IS 35-40 KT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOW ECHO OR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38528923 39168924 39578867 39878663 39758534 38338547 37808642 37438904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 19:28:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 14:28:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231928.i4NJSoe19170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231927 PAZ000-NYZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY STATE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231927Z - 232130Z WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ACTIVITY IS JUST S OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LWR MI EWD ACROSS WRN NY STATE JUST S OF LAKE ONTARIO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS NERN OH WHICH IS INDICATING MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... 41957973 42247967 42657911 43077849 43087764 42877707 42397712 42037722 41777840 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 19:56:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 14:56:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405231956.i4NJuse31577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231953 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN...NWRN OH...SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 259... VALID 231953Z - 232100Z TORNADO WATCH IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR. CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL IN TOWARDS AIR THAT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70F WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR/AROUND 80F... GIVING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE 2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS NRN IN INTO SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY. DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2 IN SRN LOWER MI AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT. THUS... ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39848821 40748808 41688728 42368615 42838447 42518255 41818301 41048370 40208575 40048783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 20:13:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 15:13:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232014.i4NKE4e08328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232009 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232009Z - 232215Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED OVER SERN MT. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS PRESENCE OF SMALL SCALE LOW WITH CU MOVING IN A CYCLONIC PATTERN. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F. STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT JUST E OF BILLINGS. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. A CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER VORTICITY MAX WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE LARGE HAIL TO FORM. WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH STRONG MID LEVEL WESTERLIES. LOCALLY LOW LCLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD / DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER SERN MT AND NWRN SD. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW... 43530270 43600334 43890432 44490543 44410671 45010706 45480711 46480728 46340544 45010202 44160175 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:00:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232201.i4NM1Qe28041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232200 ILZ000-MOZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 261... VALID 232200Z - 240000Z ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 261. MASS FIELDS ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL AT THE MOMENT AS LOW TO THE NORTH FILLS WITH TIME AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE DIURNAL FALL TIME OF DAY. NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD INTO IL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS OVER W-CENTRAL IL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED MORE AND PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING. AREA VWPS STILL EXHIBIT 150-250 0-1 KM SRH...MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL IL WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CAPE. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 41019064 41178861 40348852 39348880 38508935 37939022 37599078 37889256 38419276 39189176 40459108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:08:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:08:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232208.i4NM8ce31177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232206 COR ILZ000-MOZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 261... VALID 232206Z - 240000Z CORRECTED FOR GREATEST THREAT AREAL DESCRIPTION ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 261. MASS FIELDS ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL AT THE MOMENT AS LOW TO THE NORTH FILLS WITH TIME AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DESPITE DIURNAL FALL TIME OF DAY. NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD INTO IL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS OVER W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IL...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED MORE AND PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING. AREA VWPS STILL EXHIBIT 150-250 0-1 KM SRH...MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL IL WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CAPE. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... 41019064 41178861 40348852 39348880 38508935 37939022 37599078 37889256 38419276 39189176 40459108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:11:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:11:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232212.i4NMCRe00514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232210 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND NRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262... VALID 232210Z - 232345Z TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 262 ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SRH AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER SRN WI SUGGEST THAT THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THIS AREA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41129107 41819087 42819116 43539145 43568735 41078784 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 22:45:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 17:45:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232246.i4NMk2e16531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232245 NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...NERN PA...WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263... VALID 232245Z - 240015Z A NUMBER OF SPLITTING CELLS OVER PARTS OF NRN CT LAST HOUR AS CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVE ACROSS MARINE/BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS ERN CT/SCNTRL MA. AIRMASS FROM SRN TIER NY...ACROSS NERN PA...AND INTO SERN NY REMAINS UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...AND INVOF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS NERN PA. CELLS CROSSING THE MARINE/BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW LEADING TO SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41137774 42067848 42757785 41977287 40377297 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 23:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 18:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232331.i4NNVke04432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232330 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...ERN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264... VALID 232330Z - 240130Z COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REVEALS PRIMARY SURFACE CYLONE WAS SITAUTED ACROSS SRN WI WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES EXIST ALONG STRONGLY CURVED AND SEGMENTED WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE MI...ACROSS SCNTRL MI...TO THE ST. CLAIR RIVER/WRN LAKE ERIE. TSTM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI APPEARS LINKED TO FRONTAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE THUMB AREA. A FEW SUPERCELLS STORMS HAVE BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH THIS IMPLULSE. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE STABILIZED THE AIRMASSS OVER SRN LOWER MI BUT SLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD FO THE MAIN LOW WERE RESULTING IN AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM NERN IL ACROSS NRN IND. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS HAVE ERUPTED OFF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVED OVER CNTRL LAKE MI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI...NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 41958811 43378263 41508264 40038813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 23:33:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 18:33:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232333.i4NNXue05243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232332 COR OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...ERN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264... VALID 232332Z - 240130Z CORRECTED FOR SPELLING COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REVEALS PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WAS SITUATED ACROSS SRN WI WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES EXIST ALONG STRONGLY CURVED AND SEGMENTED WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE MI...ACROSS SCNTRL MI...TO THE ST. CLAIR RIVER/WRN LAKE ERIE. TSTM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI APPEARS LINKED TO FRONTAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE THUMB AREA. A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH THIS IMPULSE. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER SRN LOWER MI BUT SLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WERE RESULTING IN AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM NERN IL ACROSS NRN IND. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS HAVE ERUPTED OFF THE WARM FRONT AND MOVED OVER CNTRL LAKE MI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI...NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 41958811 43378263 41508264 40038813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 23:51:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 18:51:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405232351.i4NNpUe13507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232350 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-240115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / WRN SD NERN WY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265... VALID 232350Z - 240115Z LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F. THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS NOT WARMED MUCH AND HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND...BUT TORNADOES APPEAR LESS LIKELY NOW AS LCLS WILL BE TOO HIGH ON WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND CIN WILL BE TOO GREAT ON THE COOL SIDE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE. ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 43630168 42680209 42380344 42680514 42940622 44250664 45580580 46340538 45890292 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 01:41:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 20:41:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240141.i4O1fqe23317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240140 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-240245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...SRN AND ERN IL...IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 264...267... VALID 240140Z - 240245Z TORNADO WATCHES 264 AND 267 MAY BE REPLACED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WITH A NEW WATCH COVERING PARTS OF LOWER MI...IND...AND SRN IL. AN ARC OF SUPERCELLS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SRN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN SSWWD INTO SRN IL. MOST INTENSE ROTATING STORMS APPEARED OVER LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN ECNTRL IL...SHELBY AND COLES COUNTIES IN SRN IL...AS WELL AS ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SRN IL. CELL IN COLES COUNTY HAS CONTAINED A LONG TRACK MESOCYCLONE AND APPEARS TO NOW BE BOWING OUT AND ACCELERATING EAST AT OVER 40KT. STRONG MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW APPROACHING 70KT AT 500MB...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS ALL INDICATE THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WRN INDIANA....AND POSSIBLY WRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 37849031 37689090 39489084 40128805 42048768 43408264 41518260 40958472 39048483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 04:28:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 23:28:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240428.i4O4SXe25534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240426 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240426 MIZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269... VALID 240426Z - 240530Z SEVERE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 50KT ACROSS RANDOLPH... WAYNE...AND FAYETTE COUNTIES OF WRN IND AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN OH SHORTLY. ONLY ISOLD CELLS EXIST IN THE NRN PART OF WW 269 AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE WATCH AND AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. GIVEN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 39188740 43278629 43288297 39138450  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 06:10:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 01:10:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240610.i4O6Abe01104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240609 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240609 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-240815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...OH...WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...270... VALID 240609Z - 240815Z MCS HAS MOVED OUT OF SRN INDIANA INTO SWRN OH AND WILL CROSS CENTRAL PORTION WW 270 DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY TRENDS INDICATE WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY APCHS CMH. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP S OF LE OVER OH. ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN NRN PORTION WW 269...OVER LOWER MI...OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY COMPEL CANCELLATION OF WW 269 BEFORE 7Z. WW 270 TRENDS ALSO WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL LM...WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM JUST N GRR TO NEAR PHN. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ROUGHLY 20 KT ACROSS SERN LM AND SWRN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA REMAINS UNSTABLE...LIFT IS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY. PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION. FURTHER...ASSOCIATED SHIFT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING FARTHER NE VEERS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND IN TURN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCES FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI HAS DECLINED GREATLY. A FEW CELLS BETWEEN GRR-FNT EWD TOWARD THUMB MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OVER WARM FRONT. BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION ATTM IS N OF WW 269 AND N OF FRONT...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD NRN LH WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...CTP...PBZ...RLX... 39188455 43338497 43288299 39837958 39278401 41448401 42007961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 08:58:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 03:58:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405240859.i4O8xMe01723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240855 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...WRN-CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270... VALID 240855Z - 241030Z BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL PA...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CROSSES REMAINDER NERN OH. EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH ENOUGH BEHIND THIS COMPLEX THAT WW CAN BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS IT PASSES. INTERMITTENT GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA - BUT STILL CAPABLE OF SOME DAMAGE -- COULD REACH GROUND THROUGH SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER ACROSS REMAINDER PA PORTION OF WW AND OVER CENTRAL PA FOR 1-2 HOURS AFTER SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. HIGHEST MEASURED GUSTS SO FAR WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE 44 KT AT VTA IN CENTRAL OH...OVER TWO HOURS AGO AT 654Z -- WITH MOST AFFECTED STATIONS REPORTING BELOW 35 KT. EXPECT FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TO CONTINUE GRADUAL STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS/WRN SLOPES OVER PA MAY BECOME OPTIMALLY EXPOSED TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ATTM THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW FARTHER E...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 39817907 39618107 40818041 41108058 41148112 41838103 42017906  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 13:42:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 08:42:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241342.i4ODgwe05285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241341 IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-241545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0841 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / ERN SD...EXTREME NERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241341Z - 241545Z ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-16 Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. LOW LEVEL JET HAS TRANSPORTED RICH MOISTURE NWD INTO NEBRASKA JUST ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE OVER ERN NEBRASKA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE MOIST RETURN...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO SD...WHERE THE LFC WILL BE REACHED. MODELS ARE LIKELY UNDER FORECASTING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER WRN SD/NEB ON LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE INDICATE LIFT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THIS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INDICATE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42839942 43079997 44210023 44859943 45249654 43499650 42699678 42619775 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 14:04:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 09:04:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241404.i4OE4Ue19174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241403 MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-241600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241403Z - 241600Z AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO ERN PA AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL PA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. MODIFIED OKX SOUNDING WITH LOW 80S OVER UPPER 60S INDICATES 2000-3000 MUCAPE DEVELOPING. WIND FIELDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH LAGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VECTORS WILL FAVOR FAST STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE ESE. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39957868 41207821 41767762 42557683 43127516 42627266 42267272 41437326 40937385 39887550 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 14:31:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 09:31:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241431.i4OEVwe06413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241430 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241430 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0930 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...ERN NEB...SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241430Z - 241630Z SCATTERED ELEVATED TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN MO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST KS. THESE STORMS ARE NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MO. STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO BE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LEAD SHORTWAVE...DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL KS. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WHETHER ELEVATED OR SURFACE-BASED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS HIGH AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SURFACE-BASED STORM WOULD LIKELY HAVE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..HART.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39249704 40439754 41379774 41729633 41369475 39849399 37599364 37259482 37619630 38419671 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 16:25:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 11:25:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241626.i4OGQ3e18142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241624 NYZ000-PAZ000-241830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / WRN NY...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241624Z - 241830Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL / WRN NY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL PA. A WW WILL BE ISSUED. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION. PRESSURE FALLS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG SRN NY/NRN PA BORDER INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW STORM GENERATION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWER. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 41647857 42457843 43057699 42827541 41357619 40417685 40457892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 17:37:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 12:37:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241738.i4OHc2e00805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241737 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241737 MOZ000-KSZ000-241900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN/W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241737Z - 241900Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 1720Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED ALONG N-S ORIENTED WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SALINE/OTTAWA COUNTIES EWD INTO CLOUD AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS. HERE...DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F AND DIABATIC HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN KS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA WITH MLCIN NOW AOB 50 J/KG. TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE LINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER/ CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FAVORING STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39189777 39849788 39849478 39889325 38549305 38029467 38049564 38069624 38049693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:24:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:24:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241824.i4OIOle02675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241824 MNZ000-IAZ000-242000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MN INTO N-CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241824Z - 242000Z POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1805Z...LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER MOVING 230/35KTS EXTENDED FROM SIOUX COUNTY SEWD TO AUDUBON COUNTY IN NWRN/W-CNTRL IA. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OVER SERN SD INTO NERN NEB. SLY LLJ FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA IS TRANSPORTING VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM WITH RUC SOUNDING SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN THE 800-750MB LAYER. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AIDING IN GRADUAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED PARCELS FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO S-CNTRL MN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43489486 44279494 44639387 44139209 43019178 42139248 42129346 42159432 42209478 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241828.i4OISSe06187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241737 MOZ000-KSZ000-241900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN/W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241737Z - 241900Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 1720Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED ALONG N-S ORIENTED WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SALINE/OTTAWA COUNTIES EWD INTO CLOUD AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN NERN KS. HERE...DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F AND DIABATIC HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN KS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA WITH MLCIN NOW AOB 50 J/KG. TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE LINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /PER HAVILAND KS PROFILER/ CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FAVORING STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39189777 39849788 39849478 39889325 38549305 38029467 38049564 38069624 38049693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:54:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:54:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241855.i4OItHe27724@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241854 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...NWRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN IL / IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241854Z - 242030Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG WARM FRONT..WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BUT ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM PER AREA VWPS. APPROACHING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO FORM. OVERALL MASS FIELDS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE HOWEVER FOR LARGE SCALE INITIATION DUE TO DEEPENING LOW TO THE NW. THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... 35998976 35989074 36539139 37369105 37829009 37938632 37618596 36688581 36188746 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 19:01:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 14:01:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241901.i4OJ1te32560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241900 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-242030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...ERN PA..NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...274... VALID 241900Z - 242030Z WE MAY REPLACE WW 271 AND 274 WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z. RADAR SHOWS INCREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF N CENTRAL NY STATE AND CENTRAL PA. ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE MOVING THRU WRN NY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 60-70 KT ACROSS SWRN PA. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH 50 KT ABOVE 600 MB. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40317403 40307469 40377600 40687682 41597651 42647643 43207649 43667599 43707490 42717394 41737386 40507391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 19:09:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 14:09:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241909.i4OJ9ge06500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241908 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272... VALID 241908Z - 242015Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 272. AS OF 19Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONGEST TSTMS OVER PLYMOUTH...WOODBURY AND IDA COUNTIES IN NWRN IA. STORM OVER WOODBURY COUNTY PRODUCED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AT 1830Z. PROXIMITY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS ARE BASED AROUND 750MB WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN NEB COUPLED WITH MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS ALONG EWD DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EWD INTO S-CNTRL MN/N-CNTRL IA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS IA PORTION OF WW 272 INTO N-CNTRL IA WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. IA PORTION OF WW WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED SHORTLY BY NEW WW FARTHER TO THE E. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 45369872 45379502 42199483 42219833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 19:40:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 14:40:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405241940.i4OJeXe29500@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241939 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273... VALID 241939Z - 242115Z DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AS OF 19Z...MESOANALYSIS PLACED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW W OF CNK WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD INTO SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO AND THEN SEWD INTO E-CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD TO JUST W OF SLN/HUT. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING NE OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER CLAY/ADAMS COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL NEB WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ALONG WARM FRONT OVER RICHARDSON/NEMAHA COUNTIES IN FAR SERN NEB. AIRMASS S OF DEVELOPING TSTMS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON /PER 18Z TOP SOUNDING/ WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 4000 J/KG. EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /LCL HEIGHTS 800-1000 M/ WILL SUPPORT STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY... EXTREME BUOYANCY ALONG WITH SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 42119903 42149376 39879326 39879836 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:31:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:31:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242032.i4OKWDe02322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242028 MOZ000-KSZ000-242200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN/W-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275... VALID 242028Z - 242200Z INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER NERN KS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. AS OF 2010Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM DONIPHAN SWD INTO LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN FAR NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM W OF STJ SWD TO W OF OJC. LOCAL AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE W ALONG BULGING DRYLINE. HERE TOO...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:36:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:36:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242036.i4OKaQe04943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242032 OKZ000-TXZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242032Z - 242230Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD THEN OCCUR AND A WW APPEARS LIKELY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU FROM SW OF CDS TO CSM. CAP HAS ERODED AND A CONTINUED SLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH RETREATING DRYLINE AND HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STORM FORMATION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER AREA PROFILERS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH BASES OF STORMS INDICATE LOW TORNADO THREAT...UNLESS STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER E INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 33730109 34250118 34750051 36379968 36539926 36669864 36509798 35549796 34589859 33799963 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:58:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:58:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242058.i4OKwie21011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242057 KSZ000-OKZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242057Z - 242230Z TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED FOR N-CNTRL OK AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER S-CNTRL KS. AS OF 2045Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM GRANT/KAY COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK NEWD INTO SUMNER COUNTY IN S-CNTRL KS. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MOREOVER...REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS WHICH IS RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55KTS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. STRONGLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AND LARGER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED WHICH SHOULD HINDER TORNADO THREAT. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR N-CNTRL OK AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER S-CNTRL KS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 36589812 37189803 38009748 38059654 37839603 36309700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 21:40:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 16:40:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242140.i4OLede17572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242137 MOZ000-KSZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0437 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ...SWRN VT...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277... VALID 242137Z - 242230Z A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 277. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 277 AT THIS TIME. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLD TORNADOES ARE QUITE LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING INTO DELAWARE COUNTY IN SERN NY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CO-LOCATED WITH SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 21:44:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 16:44:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242145.i4OLj8e20349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242143 COR VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NJ...SWRN VT...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 277... VALID 242143Z - 242230Z CORRECTED FOR UGC CODING A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO THE EAST OF WW 277. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ACROSS SEVERE TSTM WATCH 277 AT THIS TIME. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLD TORNADOES ARE QUITE LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOVING INTO DELAWARE COUNTY IN SERN NY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CO-LOCATED WITH SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... 39627472 39687791 43997569 43987228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 22:27:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 17:27:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242227.i4OMRle18898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242226 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242226 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN/CNTRL IA...NRN MO...WRN IL AND SERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273...276... VALID 242226Z - 250000Z VERY VOLATILE AND DANGEROUS SITUATION OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO THIS EVENING. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NRN AND NERN MO SHORTLY. SEE GRAPHIC FOR LATEST MESOANALYSIS. STRONG LOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEB/IA BORDER ATTM NEAR OMA. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TRACKING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE SERN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 273 SHORTLY AND A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS NRN MO. INTENSE ACTIVITY ALSO INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL IA. COLD POOL APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITH THIS CONVECTION. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS WITH TORNADOES...EXTREME WIND GUSTS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL SPREADING ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO AS THE EVENING UNFOLDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 42129902 42179435 43589476 43539299 41219090 39759028 38629149 39919823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 22:42:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 17:42:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242242.i4OMgRe28271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242240 MOZ000-KSZ000-250015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0875 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 279... VALID 242240Z - 250015Z CU HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ICT AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES POTENTIAL OVER COWLEY COUNTY KS WITH TCU AND IT IS STILL EARLY WITH A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WATCH GIVEN STRONG PARAMETERS IN PLACE. PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER NERN KS...WITH ANOTHER AREA TO THE SW OVER WRN OK. MASS FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...GIVEN SMALL AMOUNT OF CIN ALONG DRYLINE AND EXTREME INSTABILITY...IF A STORM CAN GET ESTABLISHED IN THE MOIST AIR...THEN TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37059783 37999716 38159462 37009462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:04:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:04:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242304.i4ON4je09642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242303 OKZ000-TXZ000-250030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... VALID 242303Z - 250030Z SEVERE HAIL STORMS CONTINUE OVER WRN OK...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MOIST SELY FLOW CONTINUES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NW TX IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN THE CIN GRADIENT OVER WRN OK. THERE ARE MUCH GREATER VALUES ANALYZED E OF 1-44 AND I-35 SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN E OF THESE AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS INTO FAR N-CENTRAL OK...WHERE CIN IS LESS. ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB... 34939736 33689799 33640044 35599951 36959845 36819729 35669698 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:26:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:26:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242327.i4ONRLe23035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242325 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VT...CT...MA...RI...ERN NY/PA...NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...280... VALID 242325Z - 250100Z STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TRACKING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES INTO STABLE/COOL AIRMASS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE CT RIVER OVER NRN MA TO NEAR CT/RI BORDER. CURRENTLY...ONE SUPERCELL OVER BENNINGTON COUNTY VT APPEARS TO BE VERY NEAR WARM FRONT/SFC LOW INTERSECTION...OR PERHAPS INITIATED ON THIS INTERSECTION AND HAS NOW MOVED EAST. THIS CELL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CT RIVER VALLEY NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER STRONG CELL HAS RECENTLY WEST OF WASHINGTON COUNTY NY...AND ANOTHER STORM WITH A SMALL SCALE BOW WAS NOTED OVER SCHOHARIE COUNTY NY. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WITHIN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD CELLS OVER MA APPEAR TO DEVELOPING ABOVE SURFACE STABLE LAYER BUT SHOULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REGION AFTER CURRENT WATCHES EXPIRE. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 41307076 41287351 41307385 39937469 39987776 44027574 44017229 42817294 42777087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:49:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:49:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242350.i4ONo8e02915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242349 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242348 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275... VALID 242348Z - 250045Z EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN KS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONE LONG TRACK SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD AT ABOUT 25KT TOWARD NERN RILEY COUNTY KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS (HCRS) TO THE SOUTH OF TOPEKA. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS PRIME FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO IDEAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38149466 38099817 40009831 39979553 39309455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 23:58:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 18:58:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405242358.i4ONwpe09343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242357 COR MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275... VALID 242357Z - 250045Z CORRECTED SPELLING ON GRAPHIC EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN KS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONE LONG TRACK SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD AT ABOUT 25KT TOWARD NERN RILEY COUNTY KS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ON HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS (HCRS) TO THE SOUTH OF TOPEKA. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS PRIME FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO IDEAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. ..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38149466 38099817 40009831 39979553 39309455 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 00:27:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 19:27:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250028.i4P0S8e27151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250027 MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0879 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN/ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276... VALID 250027Z - 250130Z A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 276 MATURE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS CNTRL IA WITH DAMAGE REPORTS FROM DSM AREA. CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SCNTRL IA/NRN MO SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTO ERN IA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RELATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL MAY ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO COLD POOL MAINTENANCE AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AS ENTIRE COMPLEX DEVELOPS EAST LATER THIS EVENING. CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...OVER MARION AND MAHASKA COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY INVOF MESO LOW/WARM FRONT...MOVING TOWARD SRN EDGE OF THE WATCH AND NOW OVER RINGGOLD COUNTY...WILL POSE GREATER TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40569192 40569359 43569479 43569300 40589192 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:17:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:17:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250117.i4P1Hke22494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250115 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275...281... VALID 250115Z - 250245Z ...VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND SITUATION ACROSS AREAS OF NERN KS AND NRN MO THIS EVENING... TWO VERY LARGE SUPERCELL STORMS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS DOUGLAS AND OSAGE COUNTIES IN ERN KS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST WITH POSSIBLE DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES CROSSING PORTIONS OF NRN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND CNTRL AND ERN OSAGE COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR. A NEW CELL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER LYON COUNTY. THESE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS MAY THEN CONTINUE ON EAST INTO PARTS OF JOHNSON/FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND THE SOUTH KANSAS CITY METRO. TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO VERY HIGH WITH A PERSISTENT AND INTENSE SUPERCELL ANCHORED TO THE WARM FRONT OVER LINN AND MACON COUNTIES IN NERN MO. VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE WAS DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN NWRN/NRN MO...FROM BROWN/DONIPHAN COUNTIES IN KS NEWD TO GRUNDY AND MERCER COUNTIES IN NRN MO...THIS LINE MAY CONTAIN EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS/TORNADOES AND EXTREME WIND SPEEDS AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ACROSS ERN KS/NRN MO...AND THE KANSAS CITY AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38939046 38779295 38009304 38009772 39099770 39959622 39919382 40839371 40939052  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:36:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:36:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250136.i4P1ale01188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250135 OKZ000-TXZ000-250230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0835 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK/NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... VALID 250135Z - 250230Z WW 278 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WRN OK/FAR NW TX...LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING/SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A DIMINISHING TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 34119826 34349998 35669945 35979930 36979858 36969624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 02:07:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 21:07:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250207.i4P27we18664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250206 MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276... VALID 250206Z - 250300Z BOW ECHO NOW MOVING OUT OF WW 276 AND SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AT ABOUT 30KT INTO WASHINGTON AND IOWA COUNTIES IN ERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS LEADING ACTIVITY...IT APPEARS AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF WW 276 MAY NOT SUSTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD FOR VERY MUCH LONGER. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY RAPID DECREASE IN VIL VALUES WITH THE BOW OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. WHILE A FEW STRONG WIND REPORTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...TRENDS IN RADAR DATA AND DIURNAL COOLING SETTING IN FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF ERN IA. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40569188 40579355 43559477 43559302 40619188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 02:19:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 21:19:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250219.i4P2Jwe25211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250218 KSZ000-250345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW/NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250218Z - 250345Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NW KS INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL KS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ONGOING SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS IN NW KS APPEAR TO OCCURRING WITHIN LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ALONG/BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/SE INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS -- CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR -- WHERE MUCAPE INCREASES TO 750-1000 J/KG ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL KS. GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LONG HODOGRAPHS/VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39280089 39770066 39919987 39849915 39599812 39009789 38369845 38369958 38840075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 02:21:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 21:21:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250221.i4P2LUe26468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250219 MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-250245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280... VALID 250219Z - 250245Z AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WILL PERSIST NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT AND BENEATH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CELLS MOVING OVER STABLE MARINE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED ON OKX AND CHH EVENING RAOBS. WITH STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH...AND DECREASING UPSTREAM INSTABILITY WITH CONTINUED NIGHTTIME COOLING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY SHOULD ENSUE. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... 41357073 41277353 42747351 42707075 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 03:26:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 22:26:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250327.i4P3RAe28801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250326 ILZ000-MOZ000-250430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO ACROSS CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 281... VALID 250326Z - 250430Z ...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL REPLACE WW 821 EAST ACROSS IL TO THE IND BORDER... INTENSE LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WAS DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND WRN IL LATE TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OVER CNTRL/ERN IL AND ERN/CNTRL MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40469066 40508757 38818779 37489163 38329401 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 03:53:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 22:53:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250354.i4P3sMe08982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250353 OKZ000-250530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL OK INTO NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250353Z - 250530Z MAINLY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM CNTRL OK N/NE INTO NCNTRL/NE OK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME FROM CNTRL INTO ERN OK WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH LIKELY E/NE EXPANSION OF TSTM ACTIVITY INTO ERN OK AS LOW LEVEL JET PROGRESSIVELY VEERS OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS SUGGEST S/SW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH ADDITIONAL LLJ INCREASE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SWLY ORIENTATION ENSUES. MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT IN SCNTRL KS MAY BACKBUILD AND/OR SPREAD SEWD INTO NCNTRL/NE OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE MAIN HAZARD...WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER TENDING TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 35099815 35809821 36659818 36869804 36939660 36849486 36099468 35209493 35129662 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 04:46:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 23:46:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250446.i4P4kde02292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250446 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250445 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 283... VALID 250445Z - 250615Z A COUPLE OF INTENSE BOW ECHO COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 283 AT THIS TIME. VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE MESOSCALE BOWS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 45-60KT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SRN BOW MOVING AT 55-60KT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH...INDIANA BORDER...BEFORE 07Z. THE NRN BOW WHICH IS INVOF WARM FRONTAL INTERSECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER... ABOUT 45KT...AND IS PRECEEDED BY A COUPLE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN MO AND SCNTRL IL WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME WIND EVENTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. 21Z ETAKF APPEARS TO HAVE VERY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH VERY PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THE MODEL DATA COINCIDENT WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET. THUS CURRENT STRONG/DEEP CONVECTIVE MIXING AND FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LONG-LIVED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 37849292 39329294 40838757 39388754 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 05:01:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 00:01:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250501.i4P51Qe09814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250500 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250500 MOZ000-KSZ000-250630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS...WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... VALID 250500Z - 250630Z MOST CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DIED ACROSS TSTM WATCH 282 AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TRAILING PORTION OF MO SQUALL LINE...WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT NEAR MIAMI COUNTY KS. WE ARE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANT TO CLEAR OUT THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PERSISTS WITHIN AN AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST ETA SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS KS/OK BORDER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS. ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37079981 38039980 38349676 39149408 39119355 37159355 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 07:17:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 02:17:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250718.i4P7IFe10045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250717 MOZ000-KSZ000-250915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282... VALID 250717Z - 250915Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...CROSSING INTO MO ABOUT THAT TIME. SOME FORWARD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS NERN PERIPHERY...IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION IN BOTH STATES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW MAXIMIZED FARTHER E...SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION ARE BECOMING MORE MARGINAL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTION MKC METRO AREA SWWD TO JUST S OF ICT-P28 AND ACROSS ERN OK PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK AND SERN KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN MO WSWWD ACROSS NRN TIER OF OK COUNTIES TO NEAR PNC...THOUGH AIR MASS TO ITS N -- OVER SERN KS -- REMAINS WARM/MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F. STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN SGF RAOB AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF SERN KS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN FORCE ASCENT FROM LLJ THROUGH CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH EFFECTIVE LOWEST 6 KM. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MO MCS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37039893 38029727 38489563 38659353 37009357 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 09:24:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 04:24:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405250924.i4P9Obe07221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250923 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250923 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-251100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0423 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... VALID 250923Z - 251100Z BOW ECHO HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS SUSPECTED...WW WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM NEAR EKN WWD TO JUST S CVG THEN WNWWD TO INTERSECT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ARC NEAR DECATUR COUNTY INDIANA...AS OF 9Z. MCV OVER NWRN INDIANA -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF MAXIMIZED ASCENT - ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD -- WELL N OF FRONT AND OVER RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS PRODUCED BY REMAINING ACTIVITY TO REACH SFC AOA SEVERE LEVELS. DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF FRONT ALONG SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED BY LOW LEVEL INVERSION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS AND SMALL MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL APCHG SEVERE LEVELS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 37828327 37978654 38488718 39048629 39938581 40548589 40398331 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 14:20:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 09:20:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251421.i4PELIe17116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251419 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-251545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SRN IND/NRN/CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251419Z - 251545Z RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SRN IL/FAR WRN KY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING THAT COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT LOUISVILLE VWP INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250 AND 400 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY. CONTINUED MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 38088871 38818808 39088669 39238533 38868362 38348283 37598315 37008479 37228765 37418888 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 16:14:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 11:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251614.i4PGEkO03667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251612 MOZ000-ILZ000-251745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251612Z - 251745Z ISOLATED HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM W OF COU WWD/SWWD TO SW OF SZL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...MESOANALYSIS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF SURFACE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...TRANSVERSE BANDING IN CIRRUS CLOUDS DENOTES CLOSE PROXIMITY OF UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ATOP SURFACE-850MB FRONTAL ZONE. LOCAL RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST N OF FRONT INDICATE MUCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG FOR ELEVATED PARCELS...SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MO AS WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS TSTMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38099439 38889402 39239246 38989068 38499040 37659091 37509344 37629416 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 16:54:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 11:54:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251655.i4PGtHO01434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251654 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251654Z - 251830Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OH/S-CNTRL LOWER MI WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OH. TO THE W OF WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILES AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL TO THE W WITHIN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT AND FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS WARM SECTOR AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL EXIST AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40208316 41338292 41928198 41978001 40187990 38638092 38248224 38638290 39648330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 18:53:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 13:53:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251854.i4PIs2O25358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251852 TXZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251852Z - 252115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN/SWRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS IN THIS REGION. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 18Z...SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS WRN TX INCLUDED A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING FROM ROW ENEWD TO 35S LBB AND NEWD INTO SWRN OK. A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME SWD FROM THE FRONT INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. ALOFT...BELT OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL NM NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...500MB WINDS OF 35-45 KT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. DESPITE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BASED ON MORNING MAF SOUNDING...CONTINUED HEATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW 90S...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAPPING ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OR IN VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX ARE POSSIBLE AREAS FOR INITIATION. GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT...SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR /45-55KT/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD MITIGATE TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OF FAR SWRN TX. EARLY EVENING MODEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT ENEWD/EWD STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31630269 32880273 33300147 33530021 33339949 32379929 31489929 30739986 29980034 29980158 30200235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 18:59:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 13:59:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251859.i4PIxYO28820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251858 PAZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-252030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL PA SWD ACROSS WRN MD INTO NRN/WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251858Z - 252030Z DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 285 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM ALLEGHENY COUNTY PA SWWD INTO PUTNAM AND LINCOLN COUNTIES OF WV. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND SLIGHTLY LARGER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO PROMOTE DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON E OF WW 285. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40707933 40907856 40097733 37917851 36877942 36878046 37648097 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 19:40:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 14:40:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405251940.i4PJepO26912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251939 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251939 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO EWD ACROSS FAR SRN IL/SWRN IND INTO WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251939Z - 252115Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. BREAKS IN CIRRUS CANOPY HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON FROM N OF UNO EWD INTO FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. LOCALIZED ASCENT ALONG COLD POOLS EMANATING FROM TSTMS IN PROGRESS TO THE N ACROSS WW 286 SWWD INTO SWRN MO SHOULD SUPPORT SWD TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50-55KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37809160 37939146 38458717 37738707 36978707 36549154 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 19:59:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 14:59:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252000.i4PK00O08885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251958 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251957 PAZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-252100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/WRN PA/WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... VALID 251957Z - 252100Z CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 285. AS OF 1950Z...BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM WESTMORELAND COUNTY PA SWWD THROUGH MARION...KANAWHA AND BOONE COUNTIES IN WV. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THUS...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG...PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN COLD POOL PRODUCTION AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV PORTION OF WW. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 41678211 41687923 37997980 38038258 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 20:19:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 15:19:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252019.i4PKJcO24031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252016 ILZ000-MOZ000-252145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 252016Z - 252145Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. LONG-LIVED HP SUPERCELL OVER MONROE/ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN SWRN IL IS MOVING 285/35-40KTS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL FROM COU SEWD THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM SEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND POSSIBLY RANDOLPH AND PERRY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR JEF AND TBN WILL APPROACH WRN PORTION OF WW AREA WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ INTO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND RESULTANT COLD POOL PRODUCTION WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..MEAD.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39569148 39588875 38028877 37959150  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 21:05:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 16:05:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252106.i4PL6AO25947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252102 KYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KY SOUTHERN IN SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252102Z - 252200Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFUSE E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FROM SRN IND INTO NERN KY. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG...WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER SRN IL AS STORMS TRACK EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. SINCE LEADING DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF SEVERE...WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 39238697 39628240 37638253 37638699  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:02:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:02:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252203.i4PM38O00939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252201 TXZ000-OKZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252201Z - 260000Z THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VICINITY FISHER/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OKC SWWD TO FISHER COUNTY STORM THEN WWD. CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE HOURS VICINITY FRONT NEWD INTO SRN OK AND EXPECTED TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE HOUR IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..HALES.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 32750049 33340012 33809963 34279883 34939785 35039751 34829665 34329668 32789756 31959834 31529928 31820022 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:04:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:04:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252204.i4PM4lO01735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252203 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MO SRN IL SWRN IN WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 252203Z - 252330Z MCS COMPOSED OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND EVOLVING BOW ECHOES CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SERN MO/SRN IL. SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE PERSISTED ALONG LEADING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO E-CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM IS NOW LOCATED. LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...OVERALL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FAVORS EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO SYSTEMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD AND FEED OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF E-W FRONT. FARTHER WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG SWLY H85 JET. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS THEY FEED OFF OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36439208 38549275 39188700 37628702 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:04:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:04:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252205.i4PM5GO02027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252201 TXZ000-OKZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0900 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX AND SCENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252201Z - 260000Z THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VICINITY FISHER/STONEWALL COUNTIES TX. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OKC SWWD TO FISHER COUNTY STORM THEN WWD. CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE HOURS VICINITY FRONT NEWD INTO SRN OK AND EXPECTED TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. AREA MAY REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE HOUR IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..HALES.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 32750049 33340012 33809963 34279883 34939785 35039751 34829665 34329668 32789756 31959834 31529928 31820022  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:05:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:05:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252206.i4PM6IO02567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252203 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MO SRN IL SWRN IN WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288... VALID 252203Z - 252330Z MCS COMPOSED OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND EVOLVING BOW ECHOES CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SERN MO/SRN IL. SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAVE PERSISTED ALONG LEADING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO E-CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM IS NOW LOCATED. LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...OVERALL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE PARALLEL TO E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FAVORS EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO SYSTEMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD AND FEED OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF E-W FRONT. FARTHER WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG SWLY H85 JET. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT LARGE HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS THEY FEED OFF OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36439208 38549275 39188700 37628702  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 22:10:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 17:10:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252210.i4PMAfO05535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252209 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...ERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...DC METRO...NRN/WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 287... VALID 252209Z - 260015Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2145Z...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS S-CENTRAL PA/N-CENTRAL MD NEAR HGR...AND IN AN ARC FROM SHENANDOAH COUNTY VA SSWWD ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER. EMBEDDED CELLS WERE TRACKING GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. MESOSCALE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STORM CLUSTER SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VA. FURTHER NORTH...SUPERCELL STORM NEAR WASHINGTON/FREDERICK COUNTY MD LINE WILL CONTINUE ESEWD WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 287 FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MD AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. ..BANACOS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX... 36507883 36528189 40597900 40577596 40437487 37827635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 23:04:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 18:04:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405252305.i4PN5BO04542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252304 ILZ000-MOZ000-260000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN MO CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... VALID 252304Z - 260000Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...WW 286 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z. APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE OF WW 286 THIS EVENING AS SWLY LLJ OVERSPREADS KY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO SRN MO...WHERE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER SURFACE BASED STORMS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT /AS IS OCCURRING NOW IN CENTRAL MO/. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. ..EVANS.. 05/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 37489282 38419323 39328904 38078905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 04:29:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 23:29:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405260429.i4Q4TgO21586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260429 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260428 OKZ000-TXZ000-260630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/NWRN TX TO SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260428Z - 260630Z STRONG TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED. A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF LBB AND SOUTH OF CDS WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN STONEWALL...NRN DICKENS AND KING COUNTIES. EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER 21Z ETAKF/00Z WRF4 QPF...AND TO SOME EXTENT RUC QPF THROUGH 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AIDING INTENSIFICATION OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS THEN BEING LIFTED ACROSS OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS. SOURCE REGION LAPSE RATES NOTED IN MAF 00Z SOUNDING COUPLED WITH STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE AND HAIL. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUBTLETIES OF HOW LONG STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. LIMITED COVERAGE IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA AND GFS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 33149966 33000084 33610181 34400183 35030022 34549892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 13:21:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 08:21:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261321.i4QDLmO06407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261320 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261320Z - 261445Z STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PIKE/LINCOLN COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL MO SWWD INTO MILLER/CAMDEN COUNTIES. 12Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-65KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS PROVIDING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR EVOLVING STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...AND GIVEN THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THUS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 38369167 39289075 39578991 39628802 39278582 38378566 38048618 37508970 37309121 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 15:54:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 10:54:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261554.i4QFsLO12470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261550 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS IL/IND AND MUCH OF KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... VALID 261550Z - 261715Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 292...AND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD S AND E OF WW AREA. THUS...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. UPSCALE EVOLUTION IN RAPID MOVING MCS HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN IND AND SRN IL. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM FROM HARDIN COUNTY WWD INTO WILLIAMSON AND JACKSON COUNTIES OF FAR SRN IL. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SERN MO...WRN KY AND WRN TN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM /PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS/ IS ADVECTING THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SYSTEM AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR AFOREMENTIONED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SRN FLANK. STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 60-70KTS AT 500MB AND 100-110KTS AT 250MB/ WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER AND SWD ACROSS KY. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... 39098995 39078513 38978313 36598408 36578930 37418977 37339147 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 16:56:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 11:56:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261656.i4QGuZO26594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261655 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-261830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PA SWD INTO WV/WRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261655Z - 261830Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ARMSTRONG AND BUTLER COUNTIES OF WRN PA WITH ADDITIONAL MORE MATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FARTHER S OVER EXTREME SERN OH AND WRN WV. THOUGH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DAYTIME HEATING... MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME PA INTO CNTRL OH AS OF 16Z. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN IL/IND SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. RELATIVELY STRONG AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39098162 41037968 41977833 41807614 40387730 38777935 37848050 38318219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 17:14:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 12:14:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261714.i4QHEiO07384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261713 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261712 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-261945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...WRN/SWRN TX...AND FAR SERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261712Z - 261945Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX NNEWD INTO SWRN/WRN OK. WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK SOON. AT 17Z...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR NRN OK INTO SWRN MO. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MIX EWD INTO WRN OK AND THEN ARC SWWD ALONG A CDS-LBB LINE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME WLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE AND DEVELOPING CUMULUS TOWERS SOUTH OF AMA TO EAST OF CVS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH MUCAPE AXIS OF 3000-4000 J/KG FROM MAF TO CDS AND RAPID WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER WRN TX. TRENDS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN TX/SRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CAP BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER EWD ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL OK...WHERE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAK ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF SWRN U.S. CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT. SUPERCELL STORMS WITH EWD/ESEWD STORM MOTIONS AT 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE CAN INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM MAF INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 31800100 30990172 30410214 30220241 30180317 30280372 30750389 31450351 33380322 34230269 34890104 35270015 35849956 36419930 36339860 35439852 34009848 33220038 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 17:39:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 12:39:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261739.i4QHdNO25524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261738 MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-261915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0912 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/WV/WRN AND CNTRL VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261738Z - 261915Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN VA OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM GILES COUNTY SWD INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. MEANWHILE...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WAS LOCATED OVER MASON COUNTY WV MOVING ESEWD AT 40KTS. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS IS TENDING TO OVERSPREAD REGION FROM THE W...PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILE OBSERVED CURRENTLY ON CHARLESTON WV VWP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT WRN VA STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF WW 293 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 293. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... 39058155 38937704 36557875 36648417 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 18:20:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 13:20:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261820.i4QIKVO23464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261818 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-261945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...FAR SERN IND/SRN OH INTO FAR WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293... VALID 261818Z - 261945Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA. LARGE MCS IS IN PROGRESS OVER MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SYSTEM MOVEMENT EWD OR ESEWD AT 40-50KTS. SRN PORTION OF COMPLEX REMAINS MOST INTENSE FROM BULLITT/HARDIN COUNTIES SWWD INTO MUHLENBERG/HOPKINS COUNTIES INTO WRN KY. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM OVER ROBERTSON...NICHOLAS AND BOURBON COUNTIES IN CNTRL KY. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE A SLOW TRANSITION OF LOWER REFLECTIVITIES FROM UPSHEAR TO DOWNSHEAR OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SYSTEM RELATIVE WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG AND THIS IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER-SCALE REAR INFLOW JET WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED WITH DAMAGING WIND CORRIDORS REMAINING MORE LOCALIZED TO SMALLER-SCALE BOWS. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS INDICATES A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 39058543 39058150 36628494 36638873 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 18:47:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 13:47:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261847.i4QIlLO10211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261845 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS AND FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261845Z - 262045Z THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ERN MT AND NRN WY. DIFFERENTIAL PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESEWD REACHING SERN ND/NERN SD AROUND 27/00Z. ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NWRN SD WILL ADVANCE EWD WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDING FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE TO CLOUD STRUCTURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SW OF BIS AT THIS TIME. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS YIELDING MAXIMUM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. MODIFICATION OF 12Z ABR SOUNDING FOR 18Z SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS A MUCAPE OF 1200 J/KG. WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD READILY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE SD/ND BORDER AS TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. ONE OR MORE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS GIVEN SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. SUPERCELL MOTIONS LIKELY 270/25-30 KT. LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH ROTATING STORMS. FAIRLY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45829887 47899866 47739599 44459610 43789598 43739781 44009891 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 19:52:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 14:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405261952.i4QJqHO26383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261950 NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-262115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261950Z - 262115Z ONGOING SEVERE STORMS OVER SRN KY MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 1940Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED THAT PORTION OF MCS OVER ADAIR/RUSSELL/PULASKI COUNTIES OVER S-CNTRL KY HAS STARTED TO PROPAGATE QUICKLY TO THE S ALONG LEAD EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL. FARTHER W...CELL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MORE ELY ACROSS SWRN KY...HOWEVER A SLOW SWD SHIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG MCS OUTFLOW. AIRMASS ACROSS NRN TN REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36618515 36628231 36538137 36038186 35998313 35938815 36648820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 20:34:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 15:34:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262035.i4QKZFO26036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262032 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294... VALID 262032Z - 262200Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 20Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM S OF PAH WNWWD TO N OF SGF. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH 16Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS...SWLY WINDS IN THE 1-3KM LAYER ARE LIKELY ADVECTING WARMER AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 18Z LMN SOUNDING INTO THE REGION. THUS...CAP MAY BE STRENGTHENING TO SOME DEGREE AT LEAST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. FARTHER E...TCU/SMALL CBS OVER TEXAS/DENT COUNTIES SUGGESTS THAT CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE AN UPSTREAM 70-75KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY OFFSET PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT SGF VWP INDICATES SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER E...SUPERCELL OVER CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IS MOVING ESEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM KY MCS. THOUGH PAH REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT BOUNDARY IS MOVING S...AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE STORM BECOMING ELEVATED ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL. ..MEAD.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38439353 38438776 36438891 36469454  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 21:18:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 16:18:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262118.i4QLIZO23367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262115 PAZ000-MDZ000-262315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262115Z - 262315Z THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL PA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT DURATION OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. AT 21Z...INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO S-CENTRAL NY. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS AREA IN LOW CIN ENVIRONMENT...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY EWD AT 25 KTS. SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL STORM ROTATION...ENHANCING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT BOUNDARY LAYER COOL ACROSS NJ AND FAR ERN PA WHERE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS STORMS TRACK EAST. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE EAST OF A LINE FROM AVP TO 40 SW ABE. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 40817783 41557744 41917667 41897600 41627558 40967543 40297550 39847578 39747590 39637639 39547714 39807786  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:00:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:00:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262200.i4QM0RO19883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262157 NCZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262157Z - 262300Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN NC IN THE NEXT HOUR. MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARD CNTRL VA AND CNTRL/SRN NC THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLE WLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR E THE MCS CAN SURVIVE. GIVEN MEAN WLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE FACT THAT MCS HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...DOWNSTREAM AREAS FROM CNTRL/SRN NC MAY HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS SOON AS IT IS A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAT THE STORMS CAN SURVIVE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 36028149 36137996 36057783 35247776 34817825 34627862 35008067 35348137  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:11:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:11:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262212.i4QMC0O28497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262210 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-262315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262210Z - 262315Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM NERN MO EWD THROUGH CNTRL IL INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MIGRATING EWD ACROSS KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BE GENERATING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID MS VLY RECENTLY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE FROM CNTRL MO TO EXTREME SWRN KY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD THIS EVENING...SWLY LLJ WILL RESPOND AND ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR MASS ATOP THE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY ROTATE GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX... 39919226 40238946 40048754 38588766 38579262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:28:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:28:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262228.i4QMSXO07889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262227 VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0527 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...NERN TN...EXTREME SWRN VA AND NWRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296... VALID 262227Z - 270000Z LEADING EDGE OF CNTRL APPALACHIAN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN VA AND NWRN NC WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN TN INTO SWRN KY. COLD POOL IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SWD...BUT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SWRN KY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN PARTS OF WW 296. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. VWPS SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT BRIEF SPIN-UPS WITH THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN WW 296...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NERN PARTS OF THE WW IN SERN KY/SWRN VA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT TSTMS MAY REGENERATE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN WW ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... 36748803 37918786 36748156 35578166 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:38:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:38:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262238.i4QMcQO14274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262237 OKZ000-TXZ000-270000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298... VALID 262237Z - 270000Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2220Z...SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED 40 ENE CSM MOVING ENEWD AT 40KT. PRESENT MOTION SUGGESTS STORM IS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTION OF THE OKC METRO AREA BETWEEN 2330-0000Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM SPLITS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED EWD IN CENTRAL OK TO ADDRESS SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS. IF RIGHT MOVING CELL SLOWS DOWN AND MOVES WITH MORE OF AN ELY COMPONENT...THIS WOULD STRONGLY INDICATE UPDRAFT HAS BECOME ROOTED IN MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/. TLX VAD INDICATES A SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL WOULD MOVE ROUGHLY 270/20 KT GIVEN PRESENT VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THIS WOULD CONDITIONALLY INCREASE TORNADO THREAT...BUT PRESENCE OF MODERATE CAPPING INVERSION MAKES THIS SCENARIO UNCERTAIN. OTHER ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN OK IN VICINITY OF NOW RETREATING DRYLINE OVER SRN JACKSON COUNTY OK AND HARDEMAN COUNTY TX. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34439847 34430056 36959901 36909693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 22:57:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 17:57:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262258.i4QMwEO26148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262257 INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-270030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0557 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...SRN IL AND EXTREME W KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 294... VALID 262257Z - 270030Z LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS BUILT BACK NEWD INTO SWRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED HIGH/MIDLEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS HELD BACK STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THUS...MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED QUIET...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING IN RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED SW OF KVIH ALONG THE FRONT/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE CELLS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE CAP. HOWEVER... THESE STORMS MAY ROOT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND TAP MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PROXIMITY RUC2 SOUNDINGS HAVE 0-1KM SRH OF 225 M2/S2 AND IF TSTMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY/ FRONT...RISKS OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM AROUND KSGF-KCGI. OTHERWISE...AS THE TSTMS DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME WITH THREATS FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO WATCH 294 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. ..RACY.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX... 36589442 38389347 38338793 36528905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 23:08:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 18:08:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262308.i4QN8tO32300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262307 OKZ000-TXZ000-270030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297... VALID 262307Z - 270030Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2250Z...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM KENT COUNTY TX SWWD TO NEAR MAF. STRONGEST STORM IN WW 297 WAS LOCATED OVER KENT COUNTY...LIKELY CONTAINING VERY LARGE HAIL. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN/INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STORMS TRACK EWD AROUND AT 25-30 KT THROUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY / 100MB MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG /. SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /40-50KT/ AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS PRIMARY THREATS...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW 0-1KM SRH MITIGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 30830268 33110271 35439923 33139927 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 23:38:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 18:38:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405262338.i4QNcoO18096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262337 OKZ000-270100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...302... VALID 262337Z - 270100Z CONTINUE WW 298 AND WW 302 ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK. POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER SRN CANADIAN COUNTY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN/SRN PORTION OF THE OKC METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. STORM MOTION HAS TURNED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT...WITH ESTIMATED MOTION BASED ON PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS 280/30 KT. THIS TRACK YIELDS A 0-1KM SRH OF 175 M2/S2 BASED ON CURRENT TLX VAD WIND PROFILE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW LCL HEIGHTS. PROVIDED STORM UPDRAFT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED DESPITE INHIBITION LAYER...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2" IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS GARFIELD COUNTY OK. STORM SPLITS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH THE RIGHT MOVING STORM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36919856 36969542 35569631 34899680 34719744 34419850 34619975 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 00:21:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 19:21:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270021.i4R0LQO08736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270019 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-270215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...CNTRL MD...EXTREME NCNTRL NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299... VALID 270019Z - 270215Z MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS CNTRL VA AND NWRN NC. LEADING EDGE HAD WEAKENED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT HAS REGENERATED SOMEWHAT OVER CNTRL VA AND NWRN NC. DIURNAL COOLING HAS BEGUN TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE MCS HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND IS EMBEDDED IN MEAN WLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA AND NCNTRL NC. MARINE LAYER FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COAST MAY INHIBIT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN SERN VA. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 36568005 37897799 39647658 38937623 36667730 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 00:58:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 19:58:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270058.i4R0wmO28675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270057 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO INTO WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270057Z - 270200Z PARTS OF WW 294 AND 296 WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR. 00 UTC KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED THAT EARLY SUSPICIONS OF THE CAP BUILDING NEWD WERE CORRECT...KEEPING SWRN/SCNTRL MO CONVECTION FREE THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER NE...SRN EDGE OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND NERN MO HAVE ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER VCNTY WARM FRONT FROM NE OF KVIH TO KBLV. THESE TSTMS HAVE EXHIBITED DEVIANT MOTION AND MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WHERE 0-1KM SRH WAS OVER 350 M2/S2. THE SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD...BUT MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE EARLIER MCS DEVELOPED. THUS...TORNADO RISKS MAY DIMINISH WITH TIME IF THE AIR MASS HAS NOT HAD TIME TO RECOVER. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE AND TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE MID MO/LOWER OH VLY. AVAILABILITY OF UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED UPSTREAM WILL KEEP A LARGE HAIL THREAT ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN OK MAY EXPAND WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS AND MOVE NEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN KS AND SWRN MO AS WELL. VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 294/296 WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REISSUED AND EXACT PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION WILL BE DISCUSSED IN AN UPCOMING CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICES. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 37889381 38479351 38348789 37958806 37668631 36468596 36589537 37629539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:29:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270130.i4R1U8O12142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270129 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK AND NWRN AR CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...302... VALID 270129Z - 270300Z NO AREAS WILL BE CLEARED OUT OF BOTH WW/S 298 AND 302 THROUGH EXPIRATION TIME. PAIR OF SUPERCELLS OVER NRN OK IN WW 302 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT INCREASING CINH MAY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT EAST OF WW 302. CURRENT STORM MOTIONS WOULD TAKE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF FAR NERN CORNER OF WW 302 BY 0230Z...THUS A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF NERN OK INTO FAR NWRN AR. FARTHER SW...ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SWRN OK /WW 298/ SHOULD PERSIST WHILE MOVE ENEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE OVER WRN OK /WW 298/ WHERE CINH WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THUS NO AREAS WILL BE CLEARED OUT OF BOTH WW/S. ..CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34410056 36979896 37009674 36909456 36029349 35689423 35979580 34729688 34749826 34419844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:41:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:41:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270141.i4R1fIO17864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270140 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-270245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 270140Z - 270245Z OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SEWD THROUGH MOST OF THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 301. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE SWRN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND UPSTREAM TSTMS WILL PROBABLY SURVIVE INTO PARTS OF WRN NC FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THESE TSTMS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE OH VLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT TO A MINIMUM LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. VALID PORTIONS OF WW 301 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0400 UTC...BUT WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX... 35758340 35188153 35238007 34847997 35148150 34938334 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:55:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:55:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270156.i4R1u2O25641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270154 OKZ000-TXZ000-270300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297... VALID 270154Z - 270300Z SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 297 EXPIRATION TIME APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX TO THE NORTH OF THE ABI AREA. OVERALL INCREASING CINH EAST OF WW 297 SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WW OVER NCENTRAL TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NW IN THE VICINITY OF CDS WHERE STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A REPLACEMENT WATCH BEYOND 03Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY MAF APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN WAVE CLOUDS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. ..CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32150087 33880050 34750039 35419925 33139923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 02:37:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 21:37:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270237.i4R2bqO14824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270236 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO INTO SCNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300... VALID 270236Z - 270330Z BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT PERSIST ACROSS ECNTRL MO INTO SCNTRL IL LATE THIS EVENING AND ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG LLJ AXIS. THIS LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SWLY AND AIM INTO THE LOWER OH VLY/KY BY 0600 UTC. THIS MAY SHIFT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FARTHER SE INTO MCS ALONG THE OH RVR WITH TIME. UNLESS AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY OCCURS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WW 300 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY OR NOT REISSUED AFTER THE 0400 UTC EXPIRATION. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX... 40069211 39988761 38628767 38719208 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 03:22:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 22:22:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270322.i4R3MjO04988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270321 VAZ000-NCZ000-270415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA AND NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303... VALID 270321Z - 270415Z WW WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE 0600 UTC...OR AFTER TSTMS CLEAR THE COASTAL ZONES OF NC/VA. LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE SERN VA AND WILL DO SO BY 0400 UTC OVER NERN NC. UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NERN NC AND ADJACENT OCEAN/INLETS. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... 35457715 37747581 37917460 35467598 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 04:16:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 23:16:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270416.i4R4GrO31914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270414 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-270615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SRN MO...SRN IL...W KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 304...305... VALID 270414Z - 270615Z A RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW/S. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW/FRONT SITUATED FROM SRN IL WWD ACROSS SRN MO TO NEAR EMPORIA KS. PROFILERS/VWP SHOWS THAT A SWLY LLJ HAS INCREASED AND IS ORIENTED FROM WRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. THIS WARM ADVECTION DERIVED LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN KS INTO MO...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN MO THIS EVENING. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS RICH WITH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY THROUGH THE KTBN AREA TO SRN IL/W KY. THUS...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THAT CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...TSTMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN KS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AND WILL DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO WCNTRL/SWRN MO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF THE TORNADO WATCH 304. ALL ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM SERN MO/SRN IL INTO W KY. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 37229703 38209706 39329490 39349256 38548998 38438705 37138708 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 06:18:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 01:18:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270618.i4R6IfO28563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270616 MOZ000-KSZ000-270815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL/WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 270616Z - 270815Z BAND OF SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 6Z FROM OSAGE COUNTY KS SEWD INTO WW 304 -- IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD PORTIONS KC METRO AREA AND BEYOND INTO WRN MO. SOME NWWD BACKBUILDING OF LINE ALSO IS POSSIBLE....WITH NEW CELL GROWTH EVIDENT ATTM OVER PORTIONS LYON/WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS BAND -- AND POSSIBLY MORE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-RH LATER NEAR 850 MB -- AT BOTTOM OF DEEP PLUME OF 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES -- CONTRIBUTES TO 3000-3500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INDICATED THROUGH LOWEST 6 KM ABOVE INVERSION LAYER. MAIN THREAT REMAINS LARGE HAIL...THOUGH WITH SUCH LARGE BUOYANCY...CANNOT ELIMINATE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT PUNCHING THROUGH RELATIVELY STABLE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38459270 38319612 38749665 39369604 39529268 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 06:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 01:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270654.i4R6scO12415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270654 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270653 WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-270930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN IL...SRN INDIANA AND NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270653Z - 270930Z SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SRN INDIANA...TOWARD THAT PORTION OF NRN KY NE THRU ENE OF SDF. OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL SHOULD MOVE EWD/ESEWD INTO SRN INDIANA. PRIND THREAT IS MARGINAL ENOUGH NOT TO NEED WW. AIR MASS NEAR SFC HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PASSAGE OF EARLIER MCS PRESENTLY OVER SERN KY. HOWEVER...ABOVE THAT COLD POOL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA IS AIDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. PARCELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC AS THIS ELEVATED BUOYANCY PLUME -- MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG -- SHIFTS ACROSS OH RIVER INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS KY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH CAPE-BEARING LAYER IS FAVORABLE WITH VALUES OF AT LEAST 50-60 KT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG SEVERE LIMITS MAY PENETRATE STABLE LAYER TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38188575 38538748 38878909 38999021 39189052 39349044 39509006 39628859 39478670 38658333 38508269 38038247 37618268 37778365 38138543 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 07:29:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 02:29:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270729.i4R7TbO28167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270728 NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-270900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KY...EXTREME SWRN VA...EXTREME NWRN NC...PORTIONS NERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 270728Z - 270900Z LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN INVOF VA/KY BORDER BY 8Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY ON NW-FACING SLOPES OF RIDGES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER BUT MAINTAIN SOME STRONG -- POSSIBLY DAMAGING -- WIND POTENTIAL SSEWD INTO MOUNTAINS OF TN/NC BORDER REGION. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF SMALL AREA AFFECTED AND FCST WEAKENING TREND. FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW SLOPE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE MARGINAL BUOYANCY -- ELEVATED MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG -- AND RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER OF 50S/LOW 60S SFC TEMPS. COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS AREA OF NERN TN/NWRN NC. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 36668436 36758345 37048217 37098169 36848117 36258071 35918090 35778144 35558300 35828399 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 08:28:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 03:28:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270828.i4R8SkO24921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270827 MOZ000-271030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN KS...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307... VALID 270827Z - 271030Z OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS ENSUED...THOUGH SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS ERN MO N THROUGH E OF SGF. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA -- ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE SFC AIR MASS N OF ARM FRONT -- IS SHIFTING N OF REGION ...FROM WW 306 NWD OVER NWRN MO. MAIN SEVERE THREAT NOW IS OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL...EXCEPT FOR CORRIDOR ACROSS WRIGHT/TEXAS/SHANNON COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSEST TO SFC WARM FRONT AND DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL OCCUR GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM STONE TO ST CLAIR COUNTIES...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN WW FOR NOW BUT CONSIDER CANCELING BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF... 36749110 36729407 37479428 38009391 38009179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 08:58:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 03:58:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405270858.i4R8wJO06791@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270855 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MO...EXTREME NERN KS NEAR MO RIVER...EXTREME SERN NEB. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306... VALID 270855Z - 271030Z THIS WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z. BAND OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD AND PROPAGATING NWWD OVER DISCUSSION AREA...FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW -- KC METRO AREA -- GENERALLY NWWD TO JUST SW FNB. CONTINUED NWWD BACKBUILDING IS POSSIBLE AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION REGIME...SUCH THAT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT PORTIONS PAWNEE/NEMAHA/RICHARDSON COUNTIES NEB THROUGH 10Z...AND MUCH OF NWRN MO THEREAFTER. OVER WRN MO THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND N OF I-70 THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ELEVATED BUOYANCY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM SFC WARM FRONT...WHICH IS ANALYZED ATTM FROM W-CENTRAL KS CYCLONE ESEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL MO. MUCAPE RANGES FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG S OF MKC TO AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR MO/IA BORDER. 40-50 KT LLJ IS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA...ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO NW-SE ALIGNMENT OF TSTM BAND. PRIND THIS MCS AS A WHOLE WILL INTERMITTENTLY YIELD SEVERE HAIL FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...WITH WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...OAX... 38459270 38439414 38939497 39419545 39529268 39439545 39669604 39849629 40099633 40419609 40589581 40589555 40549517 40369466 40009399 39689346 39509325  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 11:11:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 06:11:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271111.i4RBBVO09264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271110 TXZ000-NMZ000-271345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX/NM AND PECOS/CONCHO VALLEYS. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271110Z - 271345Z POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL -- IS INCREASING THIS MORNING OVER PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS NWD ONTO SRN HIGH PLAINS. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM NEAR BREWSTER/PRESIDIO COUNTY LINE IN TX NWD TO TX/NM BORDER NW INK...THEN NEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER OF NM...NEWD PAST LBB AND ACROSS WRN OK. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WHILE AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC/ETA -- BOTH OF WHICH INDICATE GREATLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE PRECIP THIS REGION AFTER 12Z -- SHOW DECREASING CINH WHILE MAINTAINING FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY -- I.E. MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG ROOTED NEAR 800 MB LEVEL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA AT FIRST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MIDMORNING WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES AND MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER SRN AZ/NRN SONORA APCHS. DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS EVIDENT IN TSTMS NOW DETECTED FROM ELP AREA SWWD ACROSS NWRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT AT LEAST 60 KT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN FIRST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30420254 31290354 32160326 33660211 34040169 33680118 32910048 30930006 30370053 30240104 30250172 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 15:30:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 10:30:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271530.i4RFUiQ10865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271529 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-271730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL TX INTO SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271529Z - 271730Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. IMMINENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HAS ADVECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACCELERATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. MOISTENING IS OCCURRING AND CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ...WHICH HAS SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS. THIS DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...EAST OF DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING WEST OF DRY LINE...IN BAND OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION... ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AREA. MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS IN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG... WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE HAIL THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT UP WEST OF EASTWARD SURGING DRY LINE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ROOTED IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING BELOW CLOUD BASES WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY INCREASES NEAR/NORTH OF MIDLAND THROUGH THE CHILDRESS/ALTUS AREAS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32770327 34340253 35160065 34899902 33559826 32669846 31269986 31730142 31060323 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 16:12:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 11:12:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271612.i4RGCjQ12698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271610 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-271815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN MO INTO W CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271610Z - 271815Z WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TAIL END OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER TO THE WEST OF LAMONI. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THIS BAND THROUGH THE HANNIBAL/QUINCY AREA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DESPITE RELATIVELY SMALL/WEAK LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41109447 41079248 41119055 40418826 39338875 39069022 39059209 40069457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 18:08:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 13:08:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271809.i4RI9EQ32737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271808 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271807 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0107 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...S CNTRL IND...SW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271807Z - 272000Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...AND ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL WWS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO...GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF QUINCY/ SPRINGFIELD/BLOOMINGTON AND CINCINNATI. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO REMAIN... AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. FORCING ON TAIL END OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AIDED EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN VERY MOIST/BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX... 40469030 40708913 40598793 40168661 39848521 39818420 39158373 38868420 38648563 39728996 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 18:53:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 13:53:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271853.i4RIrkQ32051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271852 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-272045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308... VALID 271852Z - 272045Z NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 308 WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO... OTHERWISE CONTINUE WW 308. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL LIFT/ MOISTENING IN DIFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...PAST FEW HOURS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER TO BEGIN DEVELOPING MORE SOUTHWARD THAN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAVE DISSIPATED...AND 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AS THIS AIR MASS BEGINS FEEDING INTO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY...WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR NEAR RAIN CORES FOR EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND ST. LOUIS THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... 40319538 40329433 40419285 40469188 39959092 39308988 38669054 38489181 38599325 38999417 39419459 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 19:09:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 14:09:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405271909.i4RJ9NQ10955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271907 MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN PA...MD...NRN VA...ERN VA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271907Z - 272100Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM W-CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO SERN PA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY LIMIT NEED FOR A WATCH. AT 19Z...GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS NRN VA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IT APPEARS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CREST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TO PROVIDE LIFT...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL-SCALE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONES OR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WLY TO WNWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESEWD AROUND 25 KT. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37977949 39547857 39997775 40067700 39957633 39207626 38507628 37977626 37557668 37477767 37527848 37707915 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 20:17:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 15:17:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272020.i4RKK9Q30457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272012 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IN...W CNTRL OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 272012Z - 272215Z CONTINUE WW. 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND UP TO 3000 J/KG...ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA IS BENEATH ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE TOWARD 28/00Z...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS GROW/BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 40339030 40548873 40758716 40258545 39508457 38848621 39098757 39438976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 20:22:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 15:22:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272022.i4RKMxQ00620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272018 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-272215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT AND THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272018Z - 272215Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN SD NWWD INTO THE NERN CORNER OF MT. IN DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND -18C ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND FAR ERN MT...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AS CELLS SPREAD ESEWD AT 25-30 KT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F SUGGEST LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. ACTIVITY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46860458 49010591 48900399 45169980 43219857 43080057 43300280 43930317 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 20:39:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 15:39:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272040.i4RKe4Q14769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272037 INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-272230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW...N CNTRL INTO E CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310... VALID 272037Z - 272230Z CONTINUE WW. DOWNSTREAM AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. MESO HIGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SURFACE COLD POOL LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND MERGE WITH NEWER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VICINITY OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA. AIDED BY INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND MAIN DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEAR LIKELY TO SHIFT INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA BY AROUND 28/00Z. ..KERR.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39889468 39789308 40169231 40139182 39599091 39278933 38938766 38318722 37758826 38009008 38439244 38729326 39249449 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 21:09:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 16:09:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272109.i4RL9RQ02748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272104 TXZ000-272300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN/CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311... VALID 272104Z - 272300Z CONTINUE WW 311. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT 2045Z...UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD THROUGH ERN NM. ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING SEVERE ACTIVITY FROM JONES COUNTY TX SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION IS CAPPED...HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN CAP REMOVAL ALLOWING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD /500MB TEMPERATURES OF -7C IN CENTRAL TX TO -12C WITH UPPER LOW/...HOWEVER...SURFACE ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA   000 ASUS43 KTOP 272101 RWRKS WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR KANSAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 400 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. KSZ001>006-013>018-027>032-041>047-272200- NORTHWEST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS GOODLAND MOSUNNY 80 40 23 NW9 29.81F $$ KSZ061>065-074>080-084>089-272200- SOUTHWEST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DODGE CITY PTSUNNY 88 37 16 NW13 29.76S $$ KSZ066>073-081>083-090>101-272200- SOUTHEAST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COFFEYVILLE MOSUNNY 87 61 41 W15G21 29.65R HUTCHINSON MOSUNNY 90 51 26 NW12 29.69F MEDICINE LODGE N/A 90 48 23 VRB5 29.70R PARSONS MOSUNNY 87 64 46 SW8 29.66S WICHITA INTL PTSUNNY 89 56 32 N14 29.68S $$ KSZ007>012-019>026-033>040-048>060-102>105-272200- NORTHEAST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CONCORDIA SUNNY 84 52 33 N13G20 29.69R TOPEKA FORBES SUNNY 88 67 49 NW9 29.62F $$ WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 21:19:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 16:19:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272119.i4RLJgQ09749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272114 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-272245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN OH...NWRN WV AND NRN PNHDL OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272114Z - 272245Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND/OR MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS THE MIAMI VLY OF OH CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD AND SHOULD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHER TSTMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE LANCASTER AREA. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS FARTHER WEST...WITH A CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXTENDING INTO THE MID OH VLY. GIVEN WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WITH THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40658333 40548050 38938055 38998331 40658332  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 22:02:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 17:02:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272203.i4RM38Q05878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272201 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 272201Z - 272330Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ SERN MO INTO SRN IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY EWD TO NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW HAS FORMED NEAR ST. LOUIS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO PIVOT ABOUT AN AXIS. STORMS EAST OF THE LOW ARE DEVELOPING ENEWD WHILE WEST OF THE LOW...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE SEWD. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE TSTMS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3500 J/KG. AS THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BENEATH THESE TSTMS...THE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SEWD INTO THIS AIR MASS...LIKELY DRIVING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BOW ECHO MAY BEGIN FORMING AND MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL/SERN MO AND SRN IL GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED JUST SOUTH OF WW 309. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... 38148894 37368916 37509251 38849490 40169480 39378901 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 22:25:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 17:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272225.i4RMPpQ19374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272224 IDZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272224Z - 280030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN ID THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN ID IN REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55 KT...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. ROTATING UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL WHILE POSSIBLE SMALL-SCALE BOW SEGMENTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER...THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A WW. ..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI... 42441582 42931616 43311615 43591543 43861445 43701362 43281312 42731295 42421318 42241360 42311548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:01:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:01:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272301.i4RN1xQ08107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272300 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0600 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND/OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309... VALID 272300Z - 280030Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES FROM ECNTRL IL INTO WCNTRL OH WITHIN WW 309 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TWO CORRIDORS OF TSTMS...ONE FROM NCNTRL IND INTO CNTRL OH AND ANOTHER ACROSS SRN PARTS OF IND/IL...JUST SOUTH OF WW 309. A NARROW WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG RESIDES ACROSS CNTRL IND BETWEEN THE TWO LINES OF TSTMS AND AHEAD OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO NWRN IND/CNTRL IL. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 39709022 39919022 40498755 41088680 40718346 39158360 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:15:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:15:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272315.i4RNFZQ15800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272313 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-280045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MID OH VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313... VALID 272313Z - 280045Z A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID OH VLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL OH AND WCNTRL WV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING SEWD AT AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS SCNTRL OH AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE WELLSTON AREA OF NRN JACKSON/SRN VINTON COUNTIES BY 0000 UTC. THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED LOW LEVEL ROTATION ON THE WILMINGTON OH RADAR. PRESSURE FALL AXIS EXTENDS NEWD INTO SERN OH AND THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM FROM SWRN OH INTO WRN WV AND SWRN PA...WITHIN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE POINTED INTO PARTS OF WV THROUGH LATE EVENING...GRADUALLY VEERING TO MORE WLY. THIS MAY FAVOR A TRANSITION INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS GIVING WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 38898330 40808327 40387976 38457982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:24:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:24:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272324.i4RNOHQ20560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272322 KYZ000-INZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/ECNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272322Z - 280015Z A SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/ECNTRL KY. THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. LOUISVILLE RADAR SHOWS A POTENTIAL SUPERCELL ABOUT 10 MILES NW OF LOUISVILLE WITH SOME SIGNS THAT THE CELL IS TRANSITIONING INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OTHER CELLS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE AND WILL BE MOVING ENEWD TOWARD NCNTRL/ECNTRL KY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. THESE TSTMS WILL BE TRACKING ALONG NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. GIVEN 60 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE EWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37988540 38868541 38538357 37818350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 23:36:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 18:36:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405272336.i4RNaSQ27275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272335 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KY EWD INTO PARTS OF WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272335Z - 280000Z INCREASING CONCERN THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FROM NCNTRL KY INTO PARTS OF WV. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AND MAY REPLACE WW 313. LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWS NEARLY 23 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR WITHIN AND ENVIRONMENT OF LOW LCL/S. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT EWD INTO THE MID OH VLY AND EVIDENCE OF SEVERAL POTENTIAL TORNADIC TSTMS...AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE PRUDENT AND A CONFERENCE COLLABORATION CALL WILL BE MADE SHORTLY. ..RACY.. 05/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39008541 39118283 38867996 37598075 38048549 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 00:14:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 19:14:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280014.i4S0EEQ16677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280012 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...312... VALID 280012Z - 280145Z ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE WW 310 AND 312. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ALONG WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WITH WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE 0-1 SRH VALUES APPROACHING 200 M2/S2 OVER SERN MO EWD INTO KY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE OUTFLOW HAS NOT UNDERCUT UPDRAFT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36559222 37499300 38479323 38669198 38899064 38798951 38848859 38758732 38338542 36668540 36458762 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:02:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:02:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280102.i4S12qQ14887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280101 VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PNHDL...CNTRL MD AND CNTRL/NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280101Z - 280230Z TSTMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF INTENSITY INCREASES...OR...IF UPSTREAM OH VLY ACTIVITY SURVIVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 00Z BLACKSBURG AND WALLOPS ISLAND SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT RECENTLY DEVELOPED TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOREOVER...TSTMS UPSTREAM ACROSS WRN WV WILL BE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE ERN WV PNHDL INTO WRN VA BY 0200 UTC. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OVER THE REGION AND ANY TSTM WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ORGANIZE INTO ROTATING TSTMS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE REGIME NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED STORMS IS NOT HIGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IF STORMS DO SHOW AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY...A WW WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 315. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39567958 39487733 38897692 37937715 37587851 37807966 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:04:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:04:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280104.i4S14gQ15758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280102 TXZ000-OKZ000-280300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314... VALID 280102Z - 280300Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAINS...ALTHOUGH THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF CURRENT N-S LINE OF STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S F. OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND 700 MB TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE. ..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32039543 31769789 32499752 33659750 33939540 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:54:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:54:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280154.i4S1suQ08829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280153 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-280330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY INTO SRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280153Z - 280330Z A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 0230 UTC FROM PARTS OF CNTRL KY EWD TO SRN WV. BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED FROM A TORNADIC SUPERCELL EAST OF LOUISVILLE AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO MOVE INTO AREAS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF LEXINGTON BY 0300 UTC. PER VWPS...LOW LEVEL JET HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY AND IS AIMED INTO ERN KY/SRN WV. AS SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM MATURE... THEY ARE BECOMING MORE ORIENTED WITH THE MEAN WLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT BOW ECHOES THAT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF ERN KY AND SRN WV DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW FROM A LINE OF TSTMS FARTHER NORTH OVER CNTRL WV...WILL SAG SWD INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SWD LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN AXIS FOR UPSTREAM STORMS TO MOVE ALONG. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM FROM WW 317. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... 37758536 38397978 37538056 37238191 37098231 37208546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 02:09:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 21:09:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280209.i4S29kQ16776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280208 MOZ000-280345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0908 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 280208Z - 280345Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH INTENSIFYING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT AND SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW. LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN MO ALONG OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER NWRN MO. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO STRONG INHIBITION LAYER NOTED ON THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING. THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTURE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER IL/IND WILL LIMIT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... 36669328 36879398 37729392 38029328 37919171 37869140 36799126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 02:41:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 21:41:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280241.i4S2fQQ32240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280239 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY INTO CNTRL WV CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315... VALID 280239Z - 280415Z A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 0400 UTC. A COUPLE OF WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHOES ARE TRAVERSING THE VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 315. ONE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS OF WV IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER WAS JUST EAST OF LEXINGTON KY. AIR MASS ACROSS NERN KY AND PARTS OF CNTRL WV HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE EVENING. CHARLESTON WV VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGEST NEAR 26 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOWS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...LINEARITY OF THE ONGOING TSTMS SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT TORNADO WATCH 318 BY 0400 UTC. AT THAT TIME...AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF TORNADO WATCH 315 COULD OCCUR. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 37878533 38408534 38618385 38937972 38437976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 03:28:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 22:28:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280328.i4S3SqQ23701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280327 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...FAR SRN IND AND WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 317... VALID 280327Z - 280500Z SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN/ERN HALF OF WW 317 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW EXPIRATION TIME. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WITH THE BOW ECHO/SUPERCELLS OVER FAR SERN IL/FAR SRN IND INTO WRN KY. SEVERE THREAT OVER SERN MO WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO INCREASING ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO COMPLEX OVER FAR SERN IL AND SWRN IND. EXTRAPOLATED 45-50 KT SEWD LINE MOTION WILL TAKE SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE SERN CORNER OF WW 317...THE BOWLING GREEN AREA...BY AROUND 05Z. CONVECTION ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE LINE OVER SERN MO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES SSEWD OUT OF WW 317 AND SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO FAR SERN MO AND SWRN KY BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. LONG LIVED SUPERCELL OVER FAR SRN IND APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HANCOCK CO INTO LARUE CO OVER NCENTRAL KY. IF STRONGLY DEVIANT SEWD MOTION CAN OCCUR WITH THIS SUPERCELL AND BRING THE STORM DOWN THIS BOUNDARY THEN A GREATER TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE ERN HALF OF WW 317 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVER THE WRN HALF OF WW 317 THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ABOVE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF... 37709125 37069122 37098992 37168555 38438553 38458688 37908813 37598941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 04:18:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 23:18:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405280418.i4S4IvQ16569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280418 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280417 WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-280515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/ERN KY AND SRN WV CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 315...318... VALID 280417Z - 280515Z SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES CONTINUES. TWO WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS KY. ONE WAS APPROACHING THE WV/KY BORDER NORTHEAST OF JACKSON IN THE COALFIELDS...THE OTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING THE LOUISVILLE AREA. OTHER TSTMS TRAIL BACK INTO FAR WEST KY TO NEAR PADUCAH. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF THE BOW NEAR LOUISVILLE MAY MOVE OVER AREAS WHERE RECENT CONVECTION MOVED THROUGH...AND STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT REACH THE SURFACE AS IT TRACKS TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF LEXINGTON BETWEEN 05-06 UTC. HOWEVER...AIR MASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ECNTRL/ERN KY REMAINS PRIMED FOR TSTMS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO WATCH 315 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0500 UTC. FAR SWRN PART OF THIS WATCH MAY BE IN LINE FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER EXPIRATION. BUT...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO TORNADO WATCH 318. ..RACY.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 38368546 38458257 38318115 38398035 37168044 36488513 37778518 37878543 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 16:31:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 11:31:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281631.i4SGVQj25829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281629 MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-281900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OH INTO NRN WEST VIRGINIA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281629Z - 281900Z CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE/INTENSIFY ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH HEATING ...SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING...AND THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...ACROSS CENTRAL OH. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD...STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER WEAK...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. EMBEDDED WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...LIKELY BELOW 50 KT... BUT STILL CAPABLE OF SOME SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39248323 39848327 40278282 40328093 39758010 39527964 39317926 38538067 38288151 38388251 38868262  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 16:56:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 11:56:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281656.i4SGuJj11034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281655 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281655 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281655Z - 281930Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A WW. NARROW LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION AS MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST OF REGION. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR SO...BUT MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES. AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT/APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...A FEW MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS AS THEY SPREAD EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... 44457294 44997214 44717162 43787217 42877251 41647303 41077401 41457462 43067390 44337315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 18:37:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 13:37:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281837.i4SIbKj16524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281836 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...CNTRL MS...W CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281836Z - 282100Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN SHORT TERM...BUT COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORE OF MID/UPPER JET IS PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES...BUT BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW STILL EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...WHERE FORCING MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEATING AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG 20-25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AND WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR. THOUGH HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM PROPAGATION...RISK OF GUSTY/ POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30679289 31709186 32249118 33099021 33398926 33348750 32288898 30369131 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 19:08:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 14:08:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405281908.i4SJ8qj11218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281907 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE AL...NRN GA...PARTS OF WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281907Z - 282130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...NOW NORTH/EAST OF THE BIRMINGHAM AREA...MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR JET CORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. THIS FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTA AREA BY 21-22Z...INTO AREAS NORTH/WEST OF AUGUSTA AFTER 29/00Z. BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND DEEPENING CUMULUS/TOWERING CUMULUS ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. THOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL AIR MASS/WEAK LAPSE RATES HAVE MINIMIZED CAPE AND INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL ASCENT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO WEAK...50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION/PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE CRITERIA APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL...SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 34098592 34528504 34168226 33028251 33148409 33278665 33598640 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 20:26:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 15:26:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405282026.i4SKQFj32504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282019 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-282215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282019Z - 282215Z SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 22Z. A WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S S OF WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH BENEATH MDT FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BEFORE CELLS MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A SMALL MCS WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42159849 42619917 43669984 44329980 44309781 43499646 42679638 41939668  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 00:33:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 19:33:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405290033.i4T0XCj09254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290031 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL / SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 290031Z - 290200Z SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SERN SD AND NERN NEB CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES MOIST INFLOW. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THEY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATE. FURTHER W...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN SD WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS POOR ON RAPID CITY SOUNDING WHERE A MIXED LAYER PARCEL YIELDS SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION. ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWS HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THUS...ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER DEWPOINT AXIS PROVIDED BY SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41479491 41459940 44870058 44879585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 02:04:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 21:04:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405290204.i4T24oj20286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290203 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... VALID 290203Z - 290300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0300 UTC. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS LOCATED ALONG THE MO RIVER FROM SIOUX CITY TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 0300 UTC. THE 00 UTC OMAHA SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASING CAP BUILDING NWD BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE SUPERCELLS INFLOW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN MORE AND MORE INHIBITION WITH TIME...AND THE CELLS SHOULD DIMINISH. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN ALONG NOSE OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DENOTED BY EXPANDING BANDS OF TSTMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM ERN SD...SERN ND INTO SWRN MN AND PERHAPS NRN IA. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND GIVEN THE MOISTENING MIDLEVELS...AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... 41529759 42459871 42659980 44880042 46459872 46619640 45309369 44459330 42359356 41529492 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 04:42:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 23:42:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405290442.i4T4gRj25573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290441 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320... VALID 290441Z - 290615Z TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IA. PROFILER/VAD WIND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 60 KTS...SIMILAR TO LATEST RUC FORECAST. AN IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR WATERTOWN SEWD TOWARD FT. DODGE AND CARROLL IA. PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS EXHIBIT MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND GIVEN 45-50 KTS OF CAPE-BEARING SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WHAT WERE SUPERCELLS EARLIER THIS EVENING IN THE SIOUX FALLS/SIOUX CITY AREAS HAVE EVOLVED INTO SMALL SCALE BOWS AND ARE MOVING INTO WCNTRL IA. THESE CELLS...WHILE PROBABLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SMALL DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD INTO POSSIBLY WCNTRL MN SEWD INTO NCNTRL IA IN A FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 42109623 44429837 45469761 45729628 44929470 42099312 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 17:43:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 12:43:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291744.i4THi1j22993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291742 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291742Z - 291915Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSOLATION VICINITY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU INCREASING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F THROUGH ADVECTION WHICH IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE AND HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER. CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F AS INDICATED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES. COMPLICATING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION. SLA AND FBY PROFILERS SHOWS ONLY 10-15 KTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KM AGL. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STORMS SHOULD THUS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 40649231 40789351 41149458 41409515 43149838 43639840 44619789 42629367 41989244 41579166 40669130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 18:03:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 13:03:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291803.i4TI3ej32766@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291802 NEZ000-KSZ000-292000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL/CNTRL KS...S CNTRL/SE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291802Z - 292000Z INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH TRANSITION TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE VICINITY OF HILL CITY THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF SALINA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS...EAST OF SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF RUSSELL. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CAP IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN CAPPING LAYER NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIATION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 21Z EAST OF HILL CITY...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CONCORDIA KS/HASTINGS AND BEATRICE NEB AREAS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE HODOGRAPHS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE 29/21-30/00Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70F...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK...TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40089988 40759929 40959798 40749668 39669633 38289777 38779874 39389995 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 18:56:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 13:56:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291856.i4TIuaj25935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291854 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB...NE KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291854Z - 292130Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN NEAR TERM... BUT ONE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF DENVER. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AND MID-LEVEL COOLING FOCUSED AHEAD OF BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE HEATING AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EVENTUALLY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...AS HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO VERY WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39250386 39790470 40660360 40250273 40900171 40750036 39680032 38660090 38140250 38390380 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 19:34:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 14:34:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405291934.i4TJYij14392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291933 OKZ000-TXZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291933Z - 292130Z MASS FIELDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU BUILDING ALONG DRYLINE IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. CONVERGENCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY FOCUSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE...BUT AREA PROFILERS IN NM AND W TX INDICATE EFFECTS OF SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE BEING FELT WITH WINDS AT MID LEVELS BEGINNING TO BACK A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO UNIFORM VEERING OF WINDS BEHIND TCU LINE AT THE MOMENT...INDICATING SLIGHT DISORGANIZATION OF DRYLINE FORCING MECHANISM...GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE VERY QUICK ONCE DEEP CONVERGENCE BECOMES SUFFICIENT. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE / DEWPOINT SPREADS 25-30 F AND STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE TX/ WRN OK BORDER MAY HOLD MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AT BAY INITIALLY...UNTIL STORMS GET INTO DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO WRN OK LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34300079 34930041 35700020 36520006 36789885 36569811 34159885 34070093 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 20:16:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 15:16:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292016.i4TKGHj01976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292012 MNZ000-NDZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292012Z - 292215Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY APPARENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS TO THE WEST OF JAMESTOWN ND. STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH MAY INTENSIFY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SHEAR AXIS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS IMPEDED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION IS POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46649958 47239956 47969967 48729941 48919848 48789701 46409699 45979821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 21:58:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 16:58:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292158.i4TLwVj16478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292157 OKZ000-KSZ000-292300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...SRN/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322... VALID 292157Z - 292300Z SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE FROM BECKHAM COUNTY OK...NNEWD INTO STAFFORD COUNTY KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTH CENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35099971 37049910 38289868 38039722 36009761 34969864 34669937 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 22:02:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 17:02:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292202.i4TM2Hj17739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292201 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 321... VALID 292201Z - 300000Z CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPES NOW 2500-3000 J/KG. STORMS OVER ERN SD AND NERN NEB. ARE ENTERING INTO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WITH VWPS INDICATING 0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 150 M2/S2 ALONG WARM FRONT / OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42209407 42169925 45939996 45879434 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 22:17:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 17:17:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292217.i4TMHij25002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292216 KSZ000-NEZ000-292315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB TO NRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 323... VALID 292216Z - 292315Z EXPANDING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS IS DEVELOPING NWD FROM MITCHELL COUNTY KS...NWD INTO FILLMORE COUNTY NEB. STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER CENTRAL KS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SFC LOW INTO THIS REGION SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MASS FIELDS WITH EXPLOSIVE ANVIL EXPANSION ATOP THIS MATURING CLUSTER. WITH TIME SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO REMAINDER OF ERN NEB. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39349825 40099872 40680027 41569970 41799794 40839678 39409677 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 22:54:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 17:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292255.i4TMt4j11514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292253 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-300000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... VALID 292253Z - 300000Z ...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN KS. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F SUGGESTING LOW RH BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AHEAD OF CONVECTION. EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NERN CO AND SWRN NEB MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ALREADY STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 39210209 39750172 40590118 40330011 39430001 38830065 38580182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 23:38:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 18:38:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405292338.i4TNcbj30439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292337 MOZ000-KSZ000-300030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326... VALID 292337Z - 300030Z LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER NERN KS INTO NWRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD AID ONGOING TORNADIC SUPERCELL ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX... 38979461 39739513 40379412 39849322 38889372 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 00:05:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 19:05:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300005.i4U05Gj07560@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300004 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-300200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324... VALID 300004Z - 300200Z CONTINUE WW 324. THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT...CONTINUES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ORIENTED WNW-ESE NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER. DEEP LAYER OF SLY FLOW ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE PER FARGO VAD SUGGESTS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION...AND FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE /MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG/. STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER WW 324 IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SERN ND AND W-CENTRAL MN WHERE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY 200/15-20 KT...WITH STRONGER CORES LIKELY CONTAINING HAIL. VERY STRONG HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS AND THREAT FOR LARGEST HAIL. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS CELL INTERACTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR SERN ND COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SURFACE FRONT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ND/SD LINE...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE BORDER...BUT PRIMARILY IN WW 321 ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN. A SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX CENTERED 20N DVL CONTINUES MOVING NWD...HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY WEAK...LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN HALF OF MN. ..BANACOS.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45919861 48960077 48979704 45919503 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 01:28:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 20:28:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300128.i4U1SGj10721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300127 OKZ000-KSZ000-300230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS...NCNTRL/CNTRL OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322... VALID 300127Z - 300230Z ...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN KS/NERN OK... ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW. THE NRN MOST TORNADIC STORM IS LOCATED OVER SUMNER COUNTY KS...THE OTHER APPROACHING THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO AREA. THESE STORMS INITIATED OFF THE DRY LINE AND HAVE YET TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT CAP...IT APPEARS THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND STORM SCALE PROCESSES MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO SERN KS/NERN OK. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... 35569826 38419733 38559566 37189563 35289635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 01:47:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 20:47:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300147.i4U1llj19414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300145 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0845 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 326... VALID 300145Z - 300245Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REPLACE TORNADO WATCHES 323 AND 326... STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO NERN KS WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC CLUSTERS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO REPLACE PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCHES 323 AND 326. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 40789895 42509649 42299443 40639401 39139400 38509581 38659783 39749814  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 02:21:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 21:21:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300222.i4U2M3j01361@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300221 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN/NRN NE/NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 321... VALID 300221Z - 300315Z CONVECTION IN WW 321 IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...AS MAIN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM 65 N ATY/RWF/25 NNE SUX. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND SHOULD BE MAIN CONCERNS...THOUGH VWP DATA FROM SIOUX FALLS INDICATE AROUND 30 KT 0-1KM SHEAR. AIRMASS QUALITY IS NOT AS GOOD FARTHER EAST IN E CNTRL MN WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KT WILL FOCUS EAST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN...AND SO LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING HOWEVER. A WW IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NE/IA...AND WE WILL MONITOR MN STORMS FOR TRENDS. IF STORMS DO NOT WEAKEN WITH TIME...ANOTHER WW WILL BE CONSIDERED FARTHER EAST THAN WW 321. ..TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42189552 42169931 45929992 45919428 43609414 42189400 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 04:24:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 23:24:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300424.i4U4OOj20854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300423 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300423 MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK TO SERN NEB/SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 327...328... VALID 300423Z - 300530Z ARCING LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO NRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS SURGING NEWD ACROSS NEB AT ROUGHLY 40KT...WITH SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVEMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO KS. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY STRUGGLE TO BUILD SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHER TORNADIC ISOLATED STORMS PERSIST JUST EAST OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NWRN MO. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE RELUCTANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO LIFT SIGNIFICANTLY NEWD. FARTHER SOUTH...MORE DISCRETE LONGER LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE YET TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK...ESPECIALLY THE LINCOLN/CREEK COUNTIES OK THUNDERSTORM. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE AIDING TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH THIS SUPERCELL. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID... 35849711 37369769 38599870 40589783 42039815 42609652 42089453 40089350 38619446 36079509 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 07:40:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 02:40:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405300740.i4U7eKj04085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300738 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...NW MO...SRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 327... VALID 300738Z - 300915Z A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL IA ACROSS FAR NW MO AND INTO ECNTRL KS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES INTO FAR WRN MO AND ECNTRL IA BY THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME. REINTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 327. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN KS. MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS AREA REMAIN BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LINE HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...IT MAY REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NE KS AND FAR WRN MO SHOW 50 TO 60 KT JUST OFF THE SFC AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE LINE ESPECIALLY NEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT AREA ACROSS FAR ERN KS. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40509506 41719400 42019312 41879252 41529200 40799215 39259371 37879518 37399652 37489740 37989779 38349754 39289629 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 12:25:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 07:25:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301225.i4UCPmj05058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301224 TXZ000-301400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301224Z - 301400Z ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL TX SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SPITE OF THE CAP PROBABLY DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL LIFT ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE 700 MB WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS CNTRL TX. MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND +13 C. STILL...THE UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE (7.0 C/KM). THE GFS AND NCEP REF MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX AND MOVE IT NEWD INTO NE TX GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT LATE THIS MORNING. ..BROYLES.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31549977 32259898 32589771 32439696 32229681 31529678 30699817 30579954 30979978 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 14:42:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 09:42:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301442.i4UEgLj01395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301440 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-301715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0940 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF MO/SE IA/W CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301440Z - 301715Z SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY/SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT MAY TRANSITION RAPIDLY TO EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...BUT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS. LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING/LIFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM WEST SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER OK INTO AREAS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG . FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH LITTLE TO IMPEDE SURFACE HEATING. WARM SECTOR SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE LINEAR FORCING MAY SUPPORT QUICK EVOLUTION OF SEVERE SQUALL LINE...TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE...AS WELL AS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION...NOW JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY MO...MAY POSE MOST SIGNIFICANT INITIAL THREAT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL FORMATION. STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT INITIATION BY/ SHORTLY AFTER 18Z SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE MO INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OUN... 37439465 39289405 40009396 40529377 40959265 40789107 39798987 37419110 36639256 35229432 34649600 34779670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 15:05:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 10:05:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301505.i4UF59j12487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301504 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301504 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301504Z - 301730Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCHES AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR BY THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. NEW CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEAR/EAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MO. THIS IS IN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME ROOTED FAIRLY QUICKLY IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND INCREASING. AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN POLAR/ SUBTROPICAL JETS. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38189021 38938884 38478723 36888641 36368843 36838952 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 16:06:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 11:06:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301606.i4UG6sj08225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301605 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301604 ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-WIZ000-301800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL...WRN IN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 329... VALID 301604Z - 301800Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW TIL EXPIRATION AT 18Z. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MESO LOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS NEAR/NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON IL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FORMING ABOVE REMNANT NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER...BUT WITH FURTHER HEATING ISOLATED SUPERCELL ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL. OTHERWISE...MODELS SUGGEST WARMING ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAY CAP ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS...UNTIL SEVERE THREAT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLE EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME... MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE NOW NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO INTO THE LOUISVILLE KY AREA WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ON NOSE OF SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IWX...IND...MKX... 40648834 40408781 39788764 39498852 40158914 42098648 40918512 39618564 40088715 40638778 41508820 42448842 42588713 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:15:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:15:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301716.i4UHG2j07583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301713 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-301915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PARTS OF NW IL...SW WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301713Z - 301915Z RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CENTERED NEAR DUBUQUE AT 16Z...HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE EVOLVING NEAR OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION NOW WEST SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC POLAR JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MISSOURI. AXIS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN IOWA BORDER/MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 21Z...AND WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELL NEAR SURFACE WAVE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORNADOES...AND MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE KIRKSVILLE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 42879164 43409090 42828990 41908952 40869016 40209111 40439194 40939240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:16:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:16:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301716.i4UHGtj07841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301716 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301715 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-301845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...EXTREME NERN TX...SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301715Z - 301845Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER SERN OK...SWRN AR...POSSIBLY EXTREME NERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO COVER REMAINDER OF AREA. CAP IS ERODING OVER THE AREA WITH COOLING ALOFT. AIR MASS IS BECOMING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/KG. VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND STRONG 0-1 SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 33409410 33419677 34559612 34569367 34579273 33389308 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:54:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:54:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301754.i4UHsKj25138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301753 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-302000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...NW AR...NE OK CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 330... VALID 301753Z - 302000Z CONTINUE WW 330...AND NEW WW EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW INCREASING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG BENEATH LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING...NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KANSAS/ MISSOURI BORDER. SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...AND PROGRESS EAST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREAS BY 21Z... WHILE EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH SUPERCELL NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE KIRKSVILLE AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS SQUALL LINE EVOLVES. PRIMARY THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS BEST IN ADVANCE OF SQUALL LINE...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA. BACKED FLOW ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 36919421 38759345 39619284 40339262 40559202 40649180 40599113 40849072 40408975 39578895 39048955 38799050 39039109 38309149 36549271 35249470 34879547 35129586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 19:32:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 14:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405301932.i4UJWLj03081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301927 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI...EXTREME NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301927Z - 302100Z CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER LOWER MI. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR FEEDING INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IN SEWD. WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY FAR NWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT SMALL WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR MAY MAKE IT INTO EXTREME NERN IN / NWRN OHIO...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41748568 43428599 43278423 42608282 41628364 41638445  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 22:12:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 17:12:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405302212.i4UMCXj07243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302210 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-302345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 330...333...334...336... VALID 302210Z - 302345Z ...HIGH TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN IL... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN IL. VERY STRONG SFC-1KM SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30M/S...HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS REGION THAT HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED TROPICAL AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. IN ADDITION...LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE DISPLAYING STRONG TORNADIC SIGNATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 33139411 34759433 35999383 37489195 38729073 39168874 35318979 33339164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 22:38:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 17:38:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405302238.i4UMc4j17787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302237 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302236 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-302330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0536 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 332...334...339... VALID 302236Z - 302330Z ...TORNADIC THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN IL... BOUNDARY LAYER IS RECOVERING ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI AS WARM FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED ACROSS SRN WI...EXTENDING ESEWD FROM REDEVELOPING ELONGATED SFC LOW NEAR LSE-DBQ. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN IL...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NEWD TOWARD SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI. ..DARROW.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... 39319082 41228998 42749075 43898974 43248749 39728782 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 22:54:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 17:54:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405302254.i4UMsoj24483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302253 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-310030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302253Z - 310030Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM SERN OK / WRN AR INTO NERN TX...INCLUDING AREAS S AND E OF DALLAS. STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG COLD FRONT...AND CAP HAS BROKEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE DALLAS AREA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE DALLAS AREA IS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES BUT INCREASES QUICKLY E OF THE AREA...THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR DALLAS AND MOVE NE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN ALL AREAS AS WELL. ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 31989739 33029642 34509559 35789445 35759244 34399311 32989394 31889461 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 00:19:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 19:19:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310019.i4V0J6j27777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310018 MIZ000-WIZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310018Z - 310145Z ...INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MI... EARLIER MCS HAS SURGED WELL SOUTHEAST OF LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORCED A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NRN IND THAT APPEARS RELUCTANT TO LIFT NWD IN THE SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ISOLATED STORMS THAT LIFT/DEVELOP NEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WW AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...MKX... 44538816 44378592 42438371 42188617 43348759 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 00:22:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 19:22:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310022.i4V0MBj28800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310021 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-310145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OH...ERN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 335... VALID 310021Z - 310145Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A REPLACEMENT WW APPEARS LIKELY. SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 200-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH INDICATED ON AREA VWPS. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AIR OVER OH IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE TO COOLING OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE UNSTABLE FEED AND POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY AGAIN DEVELOP...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT. LIFT FROM COOLING ALOFT / HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING WAVE...REFLECTED / FALL COUPLET OVER IL/IN...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE UVVS ONCE AGAIN...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR WARM FRONT / OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MCS OVER NRN OHIO IS STABILIZING THE AIR MASS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...INGESTING UNSTABLE AIR WITHIN SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... 39188229 38348258 37318304 37128390 37328538 38228534 39408489 40808486 40978195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 01:40:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 20:40:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310140.i4V1esj29635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310139 OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-310315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...NWRN OH...WRN KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343... VALID 310139Z - 310315Z ...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS IND INTO NWRN OH... COMPLEX MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM NRN IND...SWWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST A MESO LOW MAY BE EVOLVING ALONG WRN MOST PORTIONS OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NWRN IND. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN IND INTO NWRN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN OVERTURNED ACROSS NRN OH...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM MCS FAVORS CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX... 36688870 39668724 41458664 41198431 37208631 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 01:54:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 20:54:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310155.i4V1tEj03249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310154 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 336... VALID 310154Z - 310300Z ...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL IN THE NEXT HOUR... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC STRUCTURES HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN EXPANDING ZONE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN PORTIONS OF TN...SWWD INTO SRN AR. NEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN MS INTO TN. PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUPPORT TORNADIC THREAT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS/DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM INTO MIDDLE TN. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 33229354 34369142 36148929 36348669 35548611 33968738 32978987 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 01:57:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 20:57:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310157.i4V1vLj03928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310155 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-310300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 310155Z - 310300Z WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS E CNTRL TX/AR. EVENING SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES SHOWS AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR STORMS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3500-4000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED NE ACROSS NRN LA...SO THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND IF THEY DO...A WW MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT. ..TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 31019326 31369367 31809401 32629393 32969362 33009156 32939017 31118995 31049221 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 03:48:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 22:48:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310348.i4V3mMj14090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310347 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-310445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...OH...KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 343...344... VALID 310347Z - 310445Z WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS...WITH LOOPING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION ACROSS ERN IND/WRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT AND SHOULD PROGRESS DEEP INTO CENTRAL OH BY 05Z. EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS NRN OH SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS E-W BOUNDARY. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX... 36718706 37848588 40728438 40668156 37098407 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 04:06:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 23:06:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310406.i4V46Cj20691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310405 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310405 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...MIDDLE TN...NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345... VALID 310405Z - 310500Z ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS SURGING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN INTO NRN AL... WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN MS LATE THIS EVENING. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SEVERAL ACCELERATING BOW ECHOES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LINE...ONE IN PARTICULAR OVER NRN MS IS RACING EWD IN EXCESS OF 50KT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ..DARROW.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34098922 36348658 36348456 34878547 33918742 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 06:07:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 01:07:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310607.i4V67Kj06203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310606 KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345... VALID 310606Z - 310730Z ...SITUATION ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN REMAINS DANGEROUS EARLY TODAY WITH EXTREME WINDS AND TORNADOES LIKELY... SEVERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO RACE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN EARLY TODAY. SQUALL LINE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AND HEIGHTENED TORNADO THREAT MAY CURRENTLY EXIST FROM BEDFORD COUNTY INTO COFFEE...WARREN...AND GRUNDY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS POTENTIAL DEEP CIRCULATION AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. RECENT SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO 70 MPH WERE REPORTED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER MARSHALL COUNTY. THIS CIRCULATION MAY FURTHER STRENGTHEN REAR INFLOW JET INTO THE BOWING LINE MOVING EAST AT 50-60KT FROM WRN FRANKLIN COUNTY TO MARION AND HAMILTON COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 33758909 34828751 36718638 36658448 33668601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 06:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 01:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310628.i4V6S6j14607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310627 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-310830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/MS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 346...347... VALID 310627Z - 310830Z LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ALIGNED WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN LA AND MS. COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL STORMS AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. APPARENT LINE INTERSECTION WITH BOWING STORMS OVER HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN NWRN MS MAY BE THE LOCATION OF MOST ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SHORT-TERM WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL. STRONG/DAMAGING WIND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NCNTRL MS COUNTIES OF HOLMES...ATTALA...WINSTON... KEMPER...AND NOXUBEE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LAGGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND STORM CHARACTER MAY TRANSITION TO MULTICELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA. AIRMASS FEEDING THE STORMS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE...LLJ/LIFT INTO THE TRAILING LINE SHOULD SUPPORT BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF FLOODING. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...SHV... 32159089 31969398 32349379 33169107 33558908 33598823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 06:42:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 01:42:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310642.i4V6gFj20544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310640 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-310845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WV...VA...KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 344...348... VALID 310640Z - 310845Z SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH RIVER AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 348 SHORTLY. LATEST LINE MOTION WAS ALMOST DUE EAST AT 45-55KT WHICH WILL BRING THE LINE ACROSS MUCH OF WV AND SWRN VA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LATEST UPSTREAM VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES THE NOSE OF 50-70KT MID LEVEL JET IS DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE SQUALL LINE. STRONGER WINDS ARE QUITE LIKELY AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 36628079 36668581 37298459 38458395 39228414 41458220 41428101 40168162 40157892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 08:42:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 03:42:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405310842.i4V8gfj08237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310840 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-311015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SWRN VA...ERN TN...WRN NC/SC...NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 348...349... VALID 310840Z - 311015Z EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION WAS CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY TODAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND MESOSCALE ASCENT WAS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE LINE BY FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT 60-70KT FLOW WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET. MOTION ALONG THE LINE WAS GENERALLY EAST AT BETWEEN 45-50KT AND EXPECT THIS SPEED TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF WATCHES 348 AND 349 OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND A HALF. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST INVOF LINE INTERSECTIONS/WAVES SUCH AS THE ONE MOVING ACROSS MONROE COUNTY IN ERN TN AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE ARE APPARENT AHEAD OF THE LINE...OVER SWRN VA. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONT. IF CONVECTION MAINTAINS CURRENT INTENSITY AND SPEED...WHICH APPEARS POSSIBLE...NEW WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND NC LATER THIS MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34008293 34008578 36628450 36638335 40208167 40157886 36638062 36638162  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 10:33:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 05:33:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311033.i4VAX5j25384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311031 GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-311230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL/WRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 350... VALID 311031Z - 311230Z SQUALL LINE MOVING ESEWD AT 45-50KT ACROSS CNTRL AL THIS MORNING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODEST PRESSURE RISES WITHIN TRAILING STRATIFORM COLD POOL REGION BEHIND THE LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THE CONVECTION AND STRONG 50-70KT MID LEVEL REAR INFLOW JET OBSERVED ON VWP DATA FROM NRN MS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUING DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 350 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN... 32248834 33708831 34088376 32658376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 11:57:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 06:57:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311157.i4VBvvj01689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311156 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC PIEDMONT...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... VALID 311156Z - 311400Z OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND VIL VALUES AS EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A STRONG OUTFLOW BEHIND THE LINE WITH 30-40KT DIVERGENT WINDS AND A MESOHIGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC. LINE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERCEPTS GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. WITH DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOW BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN LIMITED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DEVELOPS WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34418037 34368236 35438125 36498036 37327991 37297829 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 14:22:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 09:22:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311422.i4VEMOj06866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311421 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-311515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0921 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/FAR SRN MS/FAR SRN AL/SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311421Z - 311515Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN LA...FAR SRN MS...FAR SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...AND EWD INTO SWRN GA. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THIS AIR MASS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN AL WSWWD INTO SRN MS TO SERN LA. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A WSWLY 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S/ WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29119057 30409152 30909146 31198935 31658786 32008368 29968381 29288716 29038919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 15:19:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 10:19:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311519.i4VFJpj04564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311518 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311518 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-311545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN GA/SRN-ERN SC/SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 311518Z - 311545Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF SERN GA...SRN/ERN SC AND SRN NC. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL SC SWWD TO CENTRAL/SRN GA...OR 20 NW CAE TO 35 SSE MCN. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ATTM. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WIND PROFILES PER POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30548136 30498284 32278307 34318100 34847969 35157853 34457722 34287726 33547842 32488008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 16:48:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 11:48:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311648.i4VGmOj15999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311647 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311646 NCZ000-SCZ000-311715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SC AND NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 311646Z - 311715Z WW 352 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 17Z. AT 1630Z...VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW 352. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A STABLE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THESE BOUNDARIES...SUGGESTING ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WW. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE... 33998023 34477983 34837897 35497833 34907833 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 17:52:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 12:52:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311752.i4VHq8j16309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311751 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311750 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-311845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311750Z - 311845Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MI INTO NERN INDIANA. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN WI...JUST NE OF GRB...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NWRN-SERN LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH A FAIRLY NARROW AXIS OF 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETREATING NWD WITH THE BOUNDARY. POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -18C AT 500 MB/ AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NERN IND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AIDING IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41278504 41348626 43758643 44968617 45108555 45038461 44918398 44158320 42918273 41988347 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:07:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:07:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311807.i4VI7jj23355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311807 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311806 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-311900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA INTO SWRN GA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 353... VALID 311806Z - 311900Z THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DECREASED OVER ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF WW WITH MORE STABLE OUTFLOW AIR. WILL KEEP WW IN EFFECT ALL AREAS HOWEVER...AS THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND CONTINUES EVEN WHERE THERE IS NO TORNADO THREAT. THEAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CONTINUES OVER SRN AREAS OF THE WW WHERE SURFACE BASED AIR HAS NO INHIBITION AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. 0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE BELOW 50 M2/S2...SO THREAT IS MARGINAL. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29889162 31229167 31908303 30588304 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:28:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:28:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311829.i4VITJj00955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311827 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-311930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN-ERN SC/PORTIONS SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 311827Z - 311930Z GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN GA...WHILE THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/SRN NC WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SC...NEAR 35 SW CHS...SWWD ACROSS SERN GA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWNDES COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SWRN PORTION OF WW 354 FROM ECHOLS CHARLTON COUNTIES INTO SRN-SERN GA THROUGH 20Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE E AND SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE... 30448305 31248309 31928133 32598069 33828056 34907829 32887829 31348137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:28:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:28:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311828.i4VISEj00431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311827 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311827 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-311930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SRN-ERN SC/PORTIONS SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 311827Z - 311930Z GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN GA...WHILE THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/SRN NC WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN SC...NEAR 35 SW CHS...SWWD ACROSS SERN GA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWNDES COUNTY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SWRN PORTION OF WW 354 FROM ECHOLS CHARLTON COUNTIES INTO SRN-SERN GA THROUGH 20Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE E AND SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE... 30448305 31248309 31928133 32598069 33828056 34907829 32887829 31348137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 18:54:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 13:54:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311854.i4VIsZj13507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311853 MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-311930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN VA INTO SRN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311853Z - 311930Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN VA INTO SRN MD. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN VA SEWD ACROSS THE FAR SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE MID 70S F. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NWRN VA...30 N SHD. AIR MASS TO THE ESE OF THIS ACTIVITY RANGES FROM MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL VA TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN VA AND THE FAR SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. A BAND OF 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...WHILE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 37937842 38897783 38787665 38097550 36637551 36497587 37037835 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 19:27:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 14:27:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405311927.i4VJRcj05668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311926 TXZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN / E- CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311926Z - 312130Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA NWWD TO JUST W OF TYR TX. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO LOCATED FROM SRN AR SWWD ACROSS NRN TX...WITH OUTFLOW / STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION JUST SE OF SEP. A HEAT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JCT AT 19Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ALSO OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE IT IS VERY HOT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR STATIONARY FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING W OF AUS AS WELL...WHERE HEAT LOW IS CAUSING WINDS IN MOIST AIR TO BACK. WLY 30-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE MULTICELLULAR STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 32409646 32059550 31079406 30429392 29959411 29639524 30289666 30119764 29689807 30259896 31209879 32099828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 20:51:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 15:51:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312051.i4VKpMj19911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312049 MIZ000-312145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 355... VALID 312049Z - 312145Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS LOWER MI ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN WI SEWD TO SWRN MI/NWRN IND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS /6000-8000 FT/...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL. ..PETERS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41768476 45728650 45718357 41728202  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 22:29:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 17:29:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312232.i4VMWxj00716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312228 FLZ000-GAZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356... VALID 312228Z - 010000Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS WW AREA. LATEST DATA INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- FROM ROUGHLY 40 SSW VLD TO 35 SE JAX -- SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WW AREA. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST / UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS UNSTABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST JAX /JACKSONVILLE FL/ WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 30 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...BUT WITH FAIRLY WEAK / UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS... DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY...ANY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG W-E OUTFLOW -- ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME. ONE STRONG / ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS GRADY / MITCHELL COUNTIES IN SWRN GA EXTRAPOLATES TO LOWNDES COUNTY GA / HAMILTON COUNTY FL -- THE VERY NWRN MOST PORTION OF THIS WATCH -- AT 01/00Z. GIVEN THAT THIS WATCH EXPIRES AT 00Z...THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM MAY DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW. ATTM...EXPECT STORM TO WEAKEN...AND THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... 30568293 31308119 30008119 29278294 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 23:00:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 18:00:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312300.i4VN0rj12692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312259 GAZ000-FLZ000-010000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0559 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / SWRN GA / CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 358... VALID 312259Z - 010000Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN / ERN PORTIONS OF WW. BOWING LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD AT 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS SWRN GA. THESE STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIT ERN PORTIONS OF WW NEAR 01/00Z AS WATCH EXPIRES. SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION IN SRN PORTIONS OF WW AS CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS ENTERING WRN ESCAMBIA COUNTY CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...THE CLUSTER WOULD REACH BAY COUNTY AROUND 01/01Z ASSUMING CURRENT STORM MOTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AND THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM...NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. ..GOSS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30408594 30678420 31778375 31808291 30328296 30038594 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 23:19:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 18:19:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200405312319.i4VNJoj21401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-010115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MD / CENTRAL AND ERN VA / DC... CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 357... VALID 312317Z - 010115Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF WW. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS WW. HOWEVER...AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AS WELL AS INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED UVV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WW AREA. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NERN KY / SWRN VA / WV...AS WELL AS WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OVER S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA -- ALL WITHIN MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS. ASSUMING THIS CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS TIED TO INDIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL JET EXIT REGION...WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IN MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW. ..GOSS.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 39417753 37757467 36637541 37287640 37637742 37827879 WWWW