[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262245 
NMZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 262245Z - 270015Z

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF LVS TO 4CR TO SOUTH OF TCS WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
SPOTTY...SO A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER ON THE MOUNTAINS...ARE
ROLLING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AREAS OF SRN AND ERN NM.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. TCS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 43 KT DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 KT SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THESE
STORMS.  GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT ARE POSSIBLE... BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND ISOLATED.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS EVENTUALLY CUT OFF THE
FLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS.

..IMY.. 06/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

32320753 32840794 33660622 34480522 35540490 35740412
35430350 34310347 33220446 32080670 

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