[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220444 
TXZ000-OKZ000-220615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX...NW TX AND SRN
TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 220444Z - 220615Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WIND -- MAY EXTEND
SE OF WW 506 ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND NW TX AFTER
06Z...EVENTUALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX AS
WELL.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INTENSE AND EXPANSIVE COLD POOL ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE...ALSO SURGING SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM WITH 40 KT FLOW
EVIDENT ABOVE SFC IN CVS AREA VWP.  THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY SFC TEMPS 50S TO LOW 60 S F...BROAD SWATH OF 4-9 MB /2 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES...AND 35-60 KT GUSTS -- LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY OVERHEAD
TSTMS BUT OFTEN REMOVED FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. 
CONVECTION NOW OVER SERN PANHANDLE MAY FORM PART OF EARLY STAGE
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO EVENT THAT COULD AFFECT AREAS S AND SE OF WW 506
AFTER ABOUT 06Z.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS HOW MUCH DETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WOULD RESULT FROM STABILIZING PROCESSES RELATED TO LARGE
AND GENERALLY NONSEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW LOCATED BETWEEN
JCT-SEP-SJT.  THAT EVENTUALLY MAY FAVOR CORRIDOR BETWEEN CDS-ABI-FTW
-- NEAR AND JUST N OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS DAY --
FOR PROPAGATION OF ANY DERECHO EVENT BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING N OF I-20.  RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 1500-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL REMAIN IN LATTER REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...SUPPORTING BOTH ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD DRIVE COLD POOL FURTHER ALONG.

..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...FWD...SJT...MAF...

36240010 36250050 35250178 34890274 33450189 33469861 

33789875 33759821 33599766 33279732 32739730 32259768
31909848 31790047 31640092 32210241 33470262 34000224
33450187 33489865 

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