[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220317 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-220445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX
SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 220317Z - 220445Z

CONTINUE WW 506 ALONG/AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY RECENT TSTMS...AND WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED NW OF AMA. 
MEANWHILE AREAS E OF WW 506 IN PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK ARE BEING PLACED
UNDER WW 507 AS SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE INCREASES.

ISOLATED/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL -- MERGED WITH SEVERAL OTHER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND STILL LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL/WIND --
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD
KING/DICKENS/MOTLEY/COTTLE COUNTIES.  SEPARATE CLUSTER OF
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES --
COVERS AMA AREA SWWD TOWARD SFC LOW NEAR NM BORDER AND WILL ALSO
SHIFT SEWD INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN TX PANHANDLE.  ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THIS REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO
DEVELOPMENT.  LBB VWP INDICATES 30-35 KT SELY FLOW IN LOWEST KM
AGL...RESULTING IN 40-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
ABOUT 60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.  SOME CINH IS EVIDENT JUST OFF SFC IN RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS...ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING...HOWEVER MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY WHEN AUGMENTED WITH AMBIENT SHEAR.

SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY OCCUR E OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN
OK -- GENERALLY BETWEEN SFC FRONT AND I-40 -- THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. 
VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT.  HOWEVER AIR MASS JUST OFF SFC
SHOULD DESTABILIZE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WAA ATOP OLD OUTFLOW
POOL.

..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

33469860 33410188 36210362 36240019 

36180013 36439894 36689850 36689798 35939775 35169769
34629919 

WWWW