[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212357 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE...TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

VALID 212357Z - 220130Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY OVER SERN CO BECAUSE OF
OUTFLOW-RELATED STABILIZATION OVER MOST OF REGION...AND/OR IMMINENT
STABILIZATION AS IN BACA COUNTY.  OTHERWISE RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL
CONTINUE BOTH WITH ISOLATE TSTMS OVER TX PANHANDLE...AND WITH
POTENTIAL MCS MOVING SEWD FROM NERN NM.  SEVERE THREAT ALSO MAY
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING SE OF PRESENT WW...AND REPLACEMENT WW IS
BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION OF WW
505.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF TCC...WITH BLENDED DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL ZONE NWWD TOWARD SRN PORTION OF CONVECTION OVER
UNION/HARDING COUNTIES NM.  SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENEWD FROM
LOW ACROSS DHT/GAG AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY. 
MEANWHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS -- ANALYZED FROM SRN DFW
METROPLEX WWD ACROSS SHACKELFORD COUNTY THEN NWWD INTO SFC
LOW...SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL. EXPECT MOST
FAVORABLE AIR MASS TO REMAIN N THROUGH ESE OF SFC LOW...NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  IN THIS SECTOR...DEEP LAYER OF SELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20-30 KT AS PER AMA VWP SHOULD ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL SR INFLOW QUITE FAVORABLY FOR BOTH ISOLATED CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SUPERCELL AND LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD TOWARD WRN
PANHANDLE.  0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 50 KT ARE INDICATED WITH THIS
PROFILE...AND THOUGH PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE THREATS ARE
WIND/HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH ISOLATED/DISCRETE
STORMS.  RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
COMMONLY IN 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH
ABOUT 2Z.

AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS PORTIONS SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN
OK N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAKING IT INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION.  MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR PANHANDLE
ACTIVITY TO MERGE AND EVOLVE INTO WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING MCS WHICH
THEN WOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

34740069 34770321 37750492 37750240 

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