[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210559 
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...ERN KS AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504...

VALID 210559Z - 210700Z

TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY WILL BE MONITORED NEXT 45 MINUTES OR SO.
IF STORMS CAN PERSIST WITHOUT UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED...MOST
LIKELY FOR PARTS OF ERN KS SWD THROUGH NERN OK.

A COUPLE OF MCSS WITH EMBEDDED LINES AND BOW ECHOES CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH ERN NEB...CNTRL KS AND N CNTRL OK AT AROUND 36 KT. AT THIS
SPEED...THE STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF WW 504 BY 630Z. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY
AS THEY MOVE EAST. THIS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AS IT CONTINUES EWD. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER PARTS OF OK INTO KS...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE
SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER N. SWLY 30-40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORMS BACKBUILDING N OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK. BUT PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

..DIAL.. 06/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...

35349718 35899827 41099814 40789602 36419486 

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