[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190030 
OKZ000-TXZ000-190200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497...

VALID 190030Z - 190200Z

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED
BY 01-02Z TO THE NORTH OF AMA AND TO THE NE OF LBB.  SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW...AS STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM MOVE INTO TX.

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX CONTINUED TO SURGE W AND
SW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX.  SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX WSWWD ACROSS THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE NEAR 35 N AMA...AND THEN NWWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE. 
LATEST VIS/ RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER FLOYD...BRISCOE AND MOTLEY COUNTIES.  

AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE LOW ROLLING HILLS OF
WEST CENTRAL TX IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM MERGERS ACROSS FAR EAST
CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO TX...AND A RESULTANT
INCREASE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

36930298 36939987 33340000 33390302 

WWWW