[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160711 
MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-160815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481...

VALID 160711Z - 160815Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 481 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z.

GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 TO 40 KT...TOWARD THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE RIVER...WITH GREATER INHIBITION
LIKELY TO SUPPRESS FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LINE REACHES THE OMAHA AREA BY AROUND 09Z.

STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/NORTHEAST OF
MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SIOUX CITY AREA...WHERE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. 
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE...
AND THOUGH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXISTS...SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.

..KERR.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

41509806 41999776 42139705 41739629 40749574 40169578
39739675 39369768 40639761 41129774 

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