[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160215 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MN/SE SD/NE NEB/NW IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478...

VALID 160215Z - 160315Z

...REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SWRN/CNTRL MN...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS STILL FORMING
ALONG COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KT / PER LATEST WDL PROFILER DATA /...WITH LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORM
MODE IS...HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...GIVEN LINEAR FORCING OF
COLD FRONT. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND ONGOING
CONVECTION...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED EAST AND SOUTH OF COLD
FRONT...FOR A SMALL PART OF SWRN/WRN MN AND PERHAPS SE SD.

..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

42209502 42199825 42369832 43309825 44259729 44759675
44729499 

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