[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151822 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN...CENTRAL AND SRN OH...EXTREME NRN KY /
NWRN WV / WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151822Z - 152015Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION INTERSECTS THIS FRONT OVER EXTREME WRN IN AND IS CAUSING
STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER FORCING.

ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG
LIVED CONVECTION...STORMS IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /
STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION ALONG WITH MARGINAL 20-40 KT MID TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST...AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND AS THEY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EWD ALONG FRONT.

FURTHER E ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...MOST PULSE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...

40368705 40688371 40888104 41048010 40717950 40007954
39338083 38968150 38508252 38888752 39098761