[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151817 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151817Z - 152015Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER SCNTRL/SERN SD AROUND 20Z AND
GRADUALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BY 20Z.

18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW NEAR PIERRE WITH A WARM FRONT
EWD INTO WCNTRL MN.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER ERN SD
AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ACCELERATED ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SCNTRL
SD IN RESPONSE.  CONSEQUENTLY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
CENTERED BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON.  VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS LINES OF
CU/TCU FROM SD COUNTIES OF HAND-BUFFALO-ERN TRIPP AND THEN SWWD INTO
CHERRY COUNTY NEB.

WARM ADVECTION...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER...IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SD BORDER INTO SWRN MN AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SPORADIC
LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...MAIN ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO AREAS FARTHER
WEST.  AIR MASS ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SERN SD WAS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE
70S/80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.  RUC2 POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...CINH WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN MID 80S TEMPERATURES.  THUS...TSTMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR 20Z ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN SD.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.  ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD AND
SWWD INTO SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..RACY.. 06/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

45299723 45089444 44339442 43849516 43559662 43139718
42739784 42049892 41780025 42090141 43909976 44439939
44669894 

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