[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130009 
ILZ000-IAZ000-130145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

VALID 130009Z - 130145Z

GREATEST WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.


LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAYETTE COUNTY SWD
THROUGH LINN COUNTY INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 20-25KTS.
ASIDE FROM AN INITIATION ATTEMPT OVER IOWA COUNTY...SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL HAS YET TO OCCUR. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS...STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FARTHER W OVER CNTRL IA...STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO
S-CNTRL IA MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ATOP STABILIZED
SURFACE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. IF THIS
OCCURS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

..MEAD.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX...

42399404 42379030 40659034 40639406 

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